EPTDandel Ion (5): marvellosity, WaveofShadow, s0Lstice, VayneAuthority, goodkarma
Not Voting (5): Stutters695, grush57, Dandel Ion, DarthPunk, JarJarDrinks
Dandel Ion is set to be lynched. Deadline is in 38 hours.
[M][N] Les Mafia - Page 120
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Ange777
Germany1164 Posts
Dandel Ion (5): marvellosity, WaveofShadow, s0Lstice, VayneAuthority, goodkarma Not Voting (5): Stutters695, grush57, Dandel Ion, DarthPunk, JarJarDrinks Dandel Ion is set to be lynched. Deadline is in 38 hours. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On May 24 2013 18:20 marvellosity wrote: The gk roleblock is... interesting. Could be scum trying to set up GK? WIFOM i know. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
I didn't. Which sets up a decent narrative for the scumteam actually being really dumb and bad. EVER THINK ABOUT THAT? | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
Obvious joke is obvious. If they're 4 they win anyways..... duh. Tho it's a good idea, maybe I SHOULD just say who the JK is. Just to fuck town over some more. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
If we lynch DL then we're crossing our fingers that there's only 3 scum. Otherwise we lose to the NK. Now marv already acknowledged that in his analysis. On May 24 2013 06:57 marvellosity wrote: Now first off this math is wrong. After nightkills it doesn't go to 4-1-1 or 3-2-1. It goes to 4-2-1 or 3-3-1. If it's 5-4-1, we have two options: 1) lynch SK, we lose immediately to the nightkill 2) lynch mafia, when after nightkills it would be either 4-1-1 (where we can lynch the SK) or 3-2-1, where the game is out of our hands But I don't even think that's what would happen, for 2 reasons: 1. I don't think DL can afford to shoot town and risk it going to 3-3-1. That gives way too much power to mafia and he almost surely can't win. I think he either has to shoot mafia or not shoot @ all 2. Wouldn't mafia shoot @ DL? They don't really differentiate between non-scum. Doesn't it make sense that they shoot @ the guy who has KP and will almost surely not get protection? And then like marv said, if it's 6-3-1 then we're fine either way. The only issue is that we have to be pretty positive that we're lynching scum today. That's the only way we guarantee that we don't lose the game on this lynch. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 24 2013 21:55 JarJarDrinks wrote: OK, I get that everyone respects and listens to marv, but I think he's wrong here. Lynching the SK is a bad play. If we lynch DL then we're crossing our fingers that there's only 3 scum. Otherwise we lose to the NK. Now marv already acknowledged that in his analysis. Now first off this math is wrong. After nightkills it doesn't go to 4-1-1 or 3-2-1. It goes to 4-2-1 or 3-3-1. But I don't even think that's what would happen, for 2 reasons: 1. I don't think DL can afford to shoot town and risk it going to 3-3-1. That gives way too much power to mafia and he almost surely can't win. I think he either has to shoot mafia or not shoot @ all 2. Wouldn't mafia shoot @ DL? They don't really differentiate between non-scum. Doesn't it make sense that they shoot @ the guy who has KP and will almost surely not get protection? And then like marv said, if it's 6-3-1 then we're fine either way. The only issue is that we have to be pretty positive that we're lynching scum today. That's the only way we guarantee that we don't lose the game on this lynch. Serial Killers on TL often have at least a one-shot bulletproof protection. I don't see why the SK would be defenceless here. And again, if there were 4 mafia and we killed mafia (5-4-1 -> 5-3-1) then mafia would shoot at town for aforementioned likely bulletproof reason (so 4-3-1) and then SK is forced to shoot at town otherwise a 4-2-1 situation arises where town gets to lynch the SK for free. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On May 24 2013 22:27 marvellosity wrote: Serial Killers on TL often have at least a one-shot bulletproof protection. I don't see why the SK would be defenceless here. And again, if there were 4 mafia and we killed mafia (5-4-1 -> 5-3-1) then mafia would shoot at town for aforementioned likely bulletproof reason (so 4-3-1) and then SK is forced to shoot at town otherwise a 4-2-1 situation arises where town gets to lynch the SK for free. This is the important part. It's a risk we need to take. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
lynching SK puts us at at either 5-3 or 4-4(game over) that first line seems better. we are fine at 4-2-1, and 3-3-1 sucks but at least the game isn't over. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 24 2013 22:42 s0Lstice wrote: Or 4-3-1 if DL doesn't shoot. Would he rather be @ 4-3-1 or 3-3-1?so lynching scum puts us at either 4-2-1 or 3-3-1 depending on if there are 3 or 4 scum | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
*grumbles about maths n shit* | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 24 2013 22:52 s0Lstice wrote: How much of a chance does an SK have in a 3-3-1 marv? In various scenarious town becomes kingmaker 3-3-1, town and SK join together to lynch mafia for 3-2-1, mafia shoot town and SK shoot mafia, 2-1-1, town gets to decide who wins (SK or mafia) but town loses either way. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Starting my reads now. If people want to talk, I'm around. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
They can be roleblocked though. Which means that for me to operate optimally I'll have to decide whether to aim my shots 100% at either town or at mafia, thus forcing either JK or scum RB to camp me every night. Then I'll float around in the limbo. At least that's what I figured when I did the math n shit previously. So that's my plan if I don't get lynched, lel btw scum will never shoot me. wtf. that would be so dumb. So, you guys ready to lynch scum yet? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On May 24 2013 23:28 Dandel Ion wrote: I can't withhold shots. Like, really not. They can be roleblocked though. Which means that for me to operate optimally I'll have to decide whether to aim my shots 100% at either town or at mafia, thus forcing either JK or scum RB to camp me every night. Then I'll float around in the limbo. At least that's what I figured when I did the math n shit previously. So that's my plan if I don't get lynched, lel btw scum will never shoot me. wtf. that would be so dumb. So, you guys ready to lynch scum yet? How will you even know? | ||
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