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TL Mafia LXI - Page 199

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GiygaS
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Canada1043 Posts
May 01 2013 02:39 GMT
#3961
EBWOP: Also note on the Hopeless thing, that Vivax WAS wrong in his heuristic. ShiaoPi posted before his assumption was posted.
AKA gigyas, gigas, giygas khan, giyga khan, giyga...
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31494 Posts
May 01 2013 02:39 GMT
#3962
On May 01 2013 11:38 GiygaS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2013 11:36 WaveofShadow wrote:
Good case.
I'm done guys, I'm just done.

These aren't cases, these are thoughts I'm posting as I'm reading. I'll go back to note-taking and posting only if I see something, only reason I started posting as I saw stuff is someone (WONDER WHO THAT WAS) was complaining I wasn't posting my thoughts enough.

Show me where I said that.
Well thought-out cases that may take a while to post because critical thought is being undertaken =/= posting your thoughts every 5 seconds.
twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
TheRavensName
Profile Joined August 2011
United States911 Posts
May 01 2013 02:39 GMT
#3963
Yes, and its also a convient excuse to not do SHIT because yhour reading almost 200 pages worth of shit.
I once breadcrumbed watcher in a game with no watchers in the setup.
GiygaS
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Canada1043 Posts
May 01 2013 02:42 GMT
#3964
On May 01 2013 11:39 TheRavensName wrote:
Yes, and its also a convient excuse to not do SHIT because yhour reading almost 200 pages worth of shit.

I think we can find relevant things that were forgotten about after we have had 9 flips. Again, I'm going to be staying up all night if it takes me that long to read this, this is not an excuse to not do shit.
AKA gigyas, gigas, giygas khan, giyga khan, giyga...
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 01 2013 02:44 GMT
#3965
On May 01 2013 11:27 WaveofShadow wrote:

And this is dumb, because Ace is always right.


[image loading][image loading][image loading]
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
GiygaS
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Canada1043 Posts
May 01 2013 02:45 GMT
#3966
On May 01 2013 11:39 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2013 11:38 GiygaS wrote:
On May 01 2013 11:36 WaveofShadow wrote:
Good case.
I'm done guys, I'm just done.

These aren't cases, these are thoughts I'm posting as I'm reading. I'll go back to note-taking and posting only if I see something, only reason I started posting as I saw stuff is someone (WONDER WHO THAT WAS) was complaining I wasn't posting my thoughts enough.

Show me where I said that.
Well thought-out cases that may take a while to post because critical thought is being undertaken =/= posting your thoughts every 5 seconds.

You saying I don't have any cases on people currently under suspicion could be interpreted that way. Again, I'll shut up and just note take now if you're so offended by my current posts. Expect thoughts after I finish the thread, and as the night goes on I'll stay active.
AKA gigyas, gigas, giygas khan, giyga khan, giyga...
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25550 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-01 02:48:36
May 01 2013 02:47 GMT
#3967
Question answers and clarification:
Minimum scum KP is 1.
Scum KP is delivered factionally and is not subject to RB.
Due the the possibility of there being 3p, neither scum nor town is not allowed to concede in this game.
SK and SP both are compulsive-- they must target someone every night.
SK and SP shots cannot be protected against by Doctor, Veteran, JK, or the target being another SK or SP.
There can be anywhere between 0 and like 20 of any role in the setup.
You are always informed of roleblocks regardless of your own role.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Sharrant
Profile Joined August 2012
Canada543 Posts
May 01 2013 02:48 GMT
#3968
On May 01 2013 11:23 GiygaS wrote:
Some other things I've noticed:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2013 01:38 getmoript wrote:
On April 22 2013 01:16 Hopeless1der wrote:
I don't see it as particularly telling of either alignment as it was Vivax's first post. I read it and just kind of shook my head. I can follow not wanting to lynch him based on being reckless, though not with the certainty that Palmar has suggested. I'm specifically interested in the bolded.

I think there's a reasonable value oddly enought to the Vivax conjecture. Anyone who posted early is more likely, as a general rule, to be town as scum are more likely consult a QT for direction and coordinate first. The problem with the heuristic is quite simply that it doesn't work for everyone equally; as a general rule, I think it's likely to be true, but without applying it to the specific people that posted early makes it more of a generally worthless statement.
Sylencia -- As far as I know he is a noob, so I'm guessing more likely town then
yamato--I am unaware of his scum tendencies, but don't think that posting early is indicative either way
oats--AFAIK he's a vet, in the least he's towards the spammy aggressive side which makes posting early non-alignment indicative
WoS--he always rolls scum so there's that I guess
geript--Clearly an egotistical maniac and posted in The Game early as scum, so again non-alignment indicative
Shaio--No clue as to experience, wanting to kill BM is more likely town
Vivax--I'm not familiar enough with his meta, but the odd statement alone makes me think he's more likely town as I don't think he's crazy enough to spout that as scum

So far, the list of people that I'm not interested in lynching today:
Sylencia
Vivax
Shaio
Palmar


Show nested quote +
On April 22 2013 06:45 Ace wrote:
@Sharrant: RN looks like a noobie to me.

Here Ace defends TRN, if either come up mafia, lynch the other. Can one of the vets answer my question about Ace's activity btw?


Why are you cherry picking quotes? You literally had to look one more post down where I asked him to clarify that. He said he was null, not town. Just a noobie who was a null read at the time. Didn't want to spend any more time than 30 seconds looking through his filter?
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
May 01 2013 02:48 GMT
#3969
scumGiygaS ladies and gentlemen. After filtering GiygaS in this game and that, I'm fine with his contributions here. He was one of the first to draw attention to Shiao on D1, and I'm fine with him for now.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25550 Posts
May 01 2013 02:49 GMT
#3970
As a general note, I would prefer it if we could be more civil in general in this thread.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
ObviousOne
Profile Joined April 2012
United States3704 Posts
May 01 2013 02:50 GMT
#3971
No hilarious meta case came of my request. I has a sad.

I haven't looked at dead people's filters in a while. Gonna relax for a few min and try to fire up the old noggin. Check see how their reads line up with what's happening now and what has changed.

WoS don't lose your mind just yet. Yamato please stop rising to the bait. Manner.

O'Doyle Rules.
Fear is the only darkness. ~Destiny Fan Club operator~
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31494 Posts
May 01 2013 02:51 GMT
#3972
I SORRY BH

VE, I reserve judgment on Guygas until the point where he posts something real.
And Ace....goddamn it I dunno but that was funny.

I'll probably be back briefly before I go to bed.
twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
May 01 2013 02:54 GMT
#3973
He's posted plenty that's real. You're biased. Just take a step back and breathe.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
ObviousOne
Profile Joined April 2012
United States3704 Posts
May 01 2013 03:44 GMT
#3974
I feel like I asked this before, was Rayn considered possibly the 3P kill?
Fear is the only darkness. ~Destiny Fan Club operator~
GiygaS
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Canada1043 Posts
May 01 2013 03:49 GMT
#3975
On May 01 2013 12:44 ObviousOne wrote:
I feel like I asked this before, was Rayn considered possibly the 3P kill?

I think grush was the sort of "accepted" 3p kill because he wasn't really appearing to be a huge threat to the mafia, while rayn was making really solid cases and analysis at the time. People thought that grush seemed like a safe 3p kill because he was unlikely to be protected or killed by mafia, so that it would be guaranteed to lower town numbers.
AKA gigyas, gigas, giygas khan, giyga khan, giyga...
ObviousOne
Profile Joined April 2012
United States3704 Posts
May 01 2013 03:52 GMT
#3976
On May 01 2013 12:49 GiygaS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2013 12:44 ObviousOne wrote:
I feel like I asked this before, was Rayn considered possibly the 3P kill?

I think grush was the sort of "accepted" 3p kill because he wasn't really appearing to be a huge threat to the mafia, while rayn was making really solid cases and analysis at the time. People thought that grush seemed like a safe 3p kill because he was unlikely to be protected or killed by mafia, so that it would be guaranteed to lower town numbers.

Oh, okay. Yeah, then my conspiracy theory shit should probably be held back for now. LOL. Rayn's filter points to WoS possibly being 3P if it was the other way around. Grush was on the right track enough that I could see scum shooting him. /justsayin
Fear is the only darkness. ~Destiny Fan Club operator~
GiygaS
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Canada1043 Posts
May 01 2013 03:55 GMT
#3977
It's certainly a possibility, could you elaborate on it a bit more? I'm interested.
AKA gigyas, gigas, giygas khan, giyga khan, giyga...
ObviousOne
Profile Joined April 2012
United States3704 Posts
May 01 2013 04:03 GMT
#3978
On May 01 2013 12:55 GiygaS wrote:
It's certainly a possibility, could you elaborate on it a bit more? I'm interested.

Haven't gotten around to re-reading WoS as mentioned in this (I just pasted it into notepad) but here you go, full on crazy mode OO.
+ Show Spoiler [you asked for it] +
Random conspiracy theory:

WoS claims miller not because he is self-aware miller, but because he knows he will show up guilty to checks as 3P (same as miller).

Idea come from Rayn
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 28 2013 16:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:
WoS promised to provide reads to make people believe him. geript, can you take a look at his filter from D2 and tell me what reads he provided that helps us finding scum? ShiaoPi and GiygaS, and "they deserve to be looked into".

First of all, if WoS thinks ShiaoPi is mafia, why does he think he has been "so wrong" at the start of D2, that he needed to claim..???? Also if he thought he is so wrong, why does he still want to look into ShiaoPi? He doesn't mention anyone as scum suspects that Shiao/GiygaS.

He does no research, just asks people what they do think about people.


On April 28 2013 13:42 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2013 13:33 Ace wrote:
to be extra thorough - while it is still possible WoS is scum that miller claim doesn't warrant a vigi shot. It does nothing to free up extra information, as if WoS flips Miller it is a wasted shot. For now you should give him the benefit of the doubt. Look at other people on the Oats +Shiapi wagon clash cases. yamato and VE are both there. So is Palmar, hopeless1nder, and a few others. WoS is there too but as said I think he gets a temporary pass. Limit that pool via what you know by reading objectively first, then read them from both scum and town p.o.v. Do it for all of them! WoS doesn't come close to being the top vigi target when you do this.


CheeseCake, Palmar, Sharrant (him not convinced yet though):
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2013 05:56 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Shoot waveofshadow 100%

Show nested quote +
On April 28 2013 05:57 Palmar wrote:
On April 28 2013 05:56 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Shoot waveofshadow 100%


listen to this man, he speaketh truth

Show nested quote +
On April 28 2013 05:57 Sharrant wrote:
On April 28 2013 05:56 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Shoot waveofshadow 100%


Convince me on this one, I have some suspicions, let's figure out if they're the same.


+ I have said this on N1 and my read has never dropped:
Show nested quote +
On April 25 2013 03:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:
...
WaveofShadow - what me + TRN said earlier today
GiygaS - Did weird stuff on D1, especially his answers to me were not pleasing
Clarity_nl - What has been brought up today
ShiaoPi - What Vivax said

+ TRN

So that makes CC/Palmar/Me/TRN/somewhat Sharrant. I do not think any of those people are mafia.
WoS claimed right after CC-Palmar-Sharrant posted. Overly defensive in the first place, now he says he wanted to avoid a DT check and mislynch on him. Bullshit i say, noone even mentions him being a good check.



On April 28 2013 13:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2013 13:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So you are taking WoS at face value now because you think it's impossible that he soft-claimed miller as mafia. You are also going to ignore all the suspicious things he has done (as you fucking thought he should be shot earlier, that means you were suspicious of him). I'm going to yell so much at everyone of you if WoS is mafia and is not shot tonight. Based purely on the fact that this post here is 100% right and at least Ace should know it too, and WoS should have read it if he is in fact town miller:
On April 23 2013 05:30 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
What reason does town have to make to ever claim miller? Seriously, tell me. All it does is clusterfuck a thread and leaves open ground for mafia to claim as well and thus be cleared as town as he claimed miller. Assume all miller claims are bullshit and kill. If you get red checked you get killed. Its pretty simple. You lynch people who are likely mafia. Town has no reason to ever claim miller EVEN IF THEY KNOW THEY ARE ONE. As all it does is create chaos. IE only mafia have a benefit to claim it thus should be lynched.


I did read it. And he's mostly right. And I've already mentioned it's because I'd rather force a wasted vig shot than a wasted DT check and wasted lynch.
Pretty decent reasons to me. Whether or not YOU think this was going to happen or not is irrelevant. It's what I thought was going to happen and so I acted. Simple.


Think on the duality of that statement. Wasting a shot can be thought of as LOL I EAT BULLETS FOR BREAKFAST on top of being thought of I'M TOWN BRO.

I need to review what WoS has been doing recently but this is what I intend to be looking for evidence for at this point, as well as considering the possibility that he is in fact just plain miller.

Or maybe he's scum and suicidal because of what we've seen has been the presence of his team, I don't know? Really need to take another look through....


This does NOT explain any of the other kills or ANYTHING of the sort, I did no thinking outside of entertaining the idea, but if it's a possibility given what's presented here and any other kills can be explained by it, then maybe we caught ourselves a crafty one.

Contrary to this idea: He's been pretty okay with dying in his words, but if he starts fighting his lynch after accepting that he has to die I might be concerned. Anyway there are what, 2 scum left to kill, he has a vested interest in finding them as well if he is 3P. Remember that BH just clarified that 3P kills are compulsive, as in they must shoot every night, so someone go Bill Nye on this if you want or go nowhere with it, I am going back to Vivax' filter.

P.S Rayn is really good at this game, total serious, <3
Fear is the only darkness. ~Destiny Fan Club operator~
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 01 2013 04:04 GMT
#3979
grush suspects = Gigyas and yamato
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
May 01 2013 04:10 GMT
#3980
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
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