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On April 24 2013 07:44 Vivax wrote:
BM.
What's your stance on yamato currently?
What do we make of tube and Drazak?
Drazak = Artanis now
Artanis has been on mah radar
On May 01 2013 07:39 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 07:35 VisceraEyes wrote:Is he a better check than say Artanis? I was gonna check Artanis since he keeps promising to do stuff and keeps complaining about having done stuff and I can't see any stuff he's actually done.  Watch Artanis have rolled GF two scum games in a row. Fuck. Explains why he would give no fucks in a game without vigilantes and a shit load of cops. Makes sense balance wise too. Three cops, scum team needs traps.
He's looked through a few filters (Kush. GiygaS) has townreads on them. Cool. I guess he wants to kill the Cobbles. Hasn't pushed it, sort of pushing Palmar to do it. Palmar isn't going to do it (lollazy) so that's going to go nowhere. Want to see some direction from Artanis on the soon-like.
He wants to hear more from stutters, not just kill him. Artanis more patient with lurkers than me? Unpossible. Gotta be town. /jokes
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On April 24 2013 00:08 Vivax wrote:
Scummy: Yamato, clarity,
Semi-Scummy: Palmar, WoS, OO, BM, ShiaoPi
Null: BC, Rayn, Hopeless, VE
Townie: Everyone else
No medic for me if Oats flips red, thx.
What if he solved the game for us right here. What if we just lynched everyone in that list top to bottom? I'd take the death, tbh, just to see it work out.
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On May 01 2013 13:20 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On April 24 2013 00:08 Vivax wrote:
Scummy: Yamato, clarity,
Semi-Scummy: Palmar, WoS, OO, BM, ShiaoPi
Null: BC, Rayn, Hopeless, VE
Townie: Everyone else
No medic for me if Oats flips red, thx. What if he solved the game for us right here. What if we just lynched everyone in that list top to bottom? I'd take the death, tbh, just to see it work out.
OO you're like amazing at this game. Just sayin.
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On May 01 2013 13:22 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 13:20 ObviousOne wrote:On April 24 2013 00:08 Vivax wrote:
Scummy: Yamato, clarity,
Semi-Scummy: Palmar, WoS, OO, BM, ShiaoPi
Null: BC, Rayn, Hopeless, VE
Townie: Everyone else
No medic for me if Oats flips red, thx. What if he solved the game for us right here. What if we just lynched everyone in that list top to bottom? I'd take the death, tbh, just to see it work out. OO you're like amazing at this game. Just sayin.
You are also stellar at this game, charming and handsome.
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Wait were you ribbing me!?
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I don't take it back anyway =[
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No sir I just appreciate the fact that you're reading and thinking. As you were.
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So from what I gather the Artanis and Stutters slots are still under suspicion and have been since Day 1 but not really being pushed due to more objectively scummy players. Not a lot is being done by them, both playing catch up it seems and that's really hindering us getting reads on them. Would be nice to get some scum reads from both and maybe they could even push a case or two considering we likely have 3 people to lynch before we win. Does anyone have a plan or way for them to meaningfully contribute besides pointing them to filters we are interested in? Have them re-read D2 or something and see who/how opposed supported the ShiaoPi lynch and their stated reasons, see who's reasons or actions during voting were suspect? I really want to be able to get a read on these guys; I'm feeling almost there with Artanis but I'm not committed to my read on him yet.
Like telling them what to do and them doing it won't make them town, but their insights should have us figure them out, so IDK if that's what we want to push them to do at this point, or if anyone has any other ideas? Filters are OK I guess but meh =\
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11589 Posts
Hopeless.
He's mafia.
Lynch him.
OO/WoS/TRN/Gigyas/VE/Kush seem town enough to eliminate them.
Ace/Palmar/BC - will never speak about again. If I had a choice, I would RNG between them and lynch ruthlessly.
Sharrant/Artanis/Stutters all possible mafia.
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11589 Posts
Sharrant has the whole "Clarity made a case on him as he entered" thing, which I find unlikely for mafia Clarity to do to his scumbuddy. Much more likely Sharrant is town, even if he is relatively inactive.
Artanis replaced Drazak, who was a lurky, inactive player as mafia in Hydra. Perhaps this trend carried over to this game, and he rolled mafia again? Is Drazak known for being inactive as town? Artanis also suffers from the same syndrome mafia DarthPunk did in Personality 2, one of complete apathy upon replacing in, and excusing his lack of contribution with the idea that he's "still catching up." He is also one of a very few people who have correctly read my alignment. Is that just an attempt to buddy me, or is he actually like CC and Palmar in that he has a brain? Difficult to tell in this town. Seems like a good candidate to pressure for lynch, because if town, he might actually do something. He is relatively decent at scum, however, so he may be difficult to hammer home.
Stutters replaced DH, who I think is just AWOL from the forum altogether. Stutter's inactivity is typical of his play, so there's literally nothing alignment indicative about it. What he has said in the thread seems logical enough, and it would be his first scum game ever, so it's probably better to treat him as if he's town until there is some indication that he isn't. Not a good lynch, because it's 75/25 that he's town, IMO.
So it's Hopeless/Artanis as possible mafia left out of the "non-vet" group. Next I'll take a serious look at the vet group and determine the actual possibilities that lie therein.
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11589 Posts
Oh, Bill Murray. I kinda want to think he's town off his day 1, but he's been real AFK since, and he had this penchant of a disappearing act late in the game as mafia in Boardwalk as well. His alignment is difficult to ascertain with any certainty because of this dichotomy.
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Yeah, I'm not 3p OO. But thanks for asking.  (I didn't even consider the implications of me saying vig better than lynch with respect to 3p extra night life....dude VE is right about you)
Where DID BM go exactly? I'm still unsure as to where we're going with the lynch tomorrow...and I think that's sort of a good thing because we might actually have a day that lasts longer than 2 hours for once. See you guys in a bunch of hours.
Oh and yamato there is no way in hell Sharrant could be mafia. 3p....I dunno possible I guess for the same reasons it's possible for Ace (more likely for Ace imo) but yeah. Other than that and maybe Kush I agree with your list. Still want to see a proper giggles case at some point but yeah, I'm beginning to warm up to the fact that he's just....*something* town. No being rude.
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11589 Posts
BC/Palmar seem like they should both be dead. In most of the games I have played with them, they are high-priority NK targets and usually dead by now. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen either of them live this long in a game I've played with them. Regardless of me being paranoid about the alignments of the veteran players or not, something is suspect about this. the analysis that says that there is a vet who wants to hide among the alive vets seems accurate, and it only becomes more damning when one considers that ALL of the NKs we have seen have been on mid/low-tier players in terms of activity and skill level.
By this same logic, it seems odd that Ace is alive. While all of these players have been under some degree of suspicion this game, this fact hasn't stopped scum teams from shooting high-priority targets before. Out of the three mentioned, Ace seems like the least likely to be mafia, simply from activity levels and attitude about the game. But he also has a reputation as a legendary scum player, so it is difficult for me to cognitively cross him off my list of suspects, and my conspiracy theories only serve to move him further null in my mind. It may be a decent idea to ignore him for a short while until we get more information about the alignments of the other two.
So back to Palmar/BC; I find it more likely that Palmar is town than BC. Palmar, while relatively inactive, has attempted at times to push his own agenda in lynching VE, good or bad. He's also had a believable narrative in checking/claiming a red check on BC. Is he capable of this sort of play as mafia? It's possible, but I feel it likely that Palmar is actually telling the truth that he simply cba to do anything. It's an illness that often strikes Palmar.
BC doesn't seem to have pushed for anyone's lynch but mine this whole game. From my perspective, this is hilariously weak, since I know I'm town. It's unfortunate that his schedule restricts him from being active most of the time people are attempting to decide upon lynches. His strongest stance since saying I'm scum is saying that Palmar is, which seems to be in line with general town sentiment. But I've never seen BC play past D1/N1, so I can't know if this play is his typical town play or not. I will say that in the games I have played with him, he seems more assertive about his reads and more aggressive in hunting them. I'm not getting that feeling this game, especially as the game wears on.
Out of the two, I would lynch BC. I'd much rather lynch Hopeless, however, over either of them. I'll take a better look at his voting patterns throughout the game and come to a much more defined conclusion.
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11589 Posts
Hopeless' Official Vote Filter
Go on, look at it, it's short. He has 5 vote this game, and they are not spread evenly throughout the days. I'm going to match them to the corresponding reasons he gives in thread and analyse his voting strategy this game, all in chronological order to see how it's changed, or hasn't, over time.
DAY 1
On April 22 2013 21:30 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Vote: raynpelikoneet
On April 22 2013 21:30 Hopeless1der wrote:What the fuck is this suspicion on me based on? My determination to "Shut down townreads"? Yes, when you're handing them out like hotcakes and trying to hold hands singing kumbya. This is Mafia, not summer camp singalong. I'm not discouraging reasonable townreads, I'm trying to keep things objective and informed. The two points against me are my comments on VE's entrance and Vivax/Palmar's entrance posts. For VE, watch carefully: + Show Spoiler +On April 22 2013 01:50 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2013 01:48 getmoript wrote:On April 22 2013 01:25 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:On April 22 2013 01:23 kushm4sta wrote:
WE knew that's what VE meant because we are town. Scum prob didn't know what he meant. Now you just explained it to them. Why wouldn't scum know what he meant? They had to do the exact same thing, the only difference is they had a QT in their PM. They still have to look up if they are framer,rber,godfather or whatever. Literally every person has to reference the op for their role, regardless of alignment. How would you even know this? Are you scum? Did you receive a QT in your PM? Did you receive the QT in the same pm or a different pm? You are treading on highly suspicious ground for me because as a hydra I received my hydra QT in the same PM. You aren't a hydra clearly. How would you know that? On March 22 2013 20:48 Blazinghand wrote:Sample PMs:How the fuck is this so difficult to understand? Am I trying to prevent townreads? You could say that. However, the reasoning used to attain a townread on VE was true of literally every player in the game. It's the equivalent of calling anyone who doesn't post for more than an hour scum. Man's gotta sleep right? Same way he has to READ THE OP TO LEARN WHAT HIS ROLE IS???
Vivax/Palmar's openings: Palmar, based on the plethora of information from Vivax's two posts, the first ones in the game, declares Vivax to be unlynchable. Just like that. And that was alright because I felt similar about it. I mean I'd still have an open mind, but Vivax's post did put me onto a townier side of Vivax. My problem with Palmar's post was that he called something really fucking stupid a valuable towntell heuristic. Let me break this shit down: DAY 1 POST timestamp On April 21 2013 16:55 Blazinghand wrote:Vivax's first posts, the ones Palmar was referring to Show nested quote +On April 21 2013 18:23 Vivax wrote:
Good morning.
Is it safe to assume scum didn't post yet? Show nested quote +On April 21 2013 18:28 Vivax wrote:
Well I don't care that you say no, I'll treat everyone who posted before me as confirmed town for a while. So roughly an hour and a half. In addition there were 15ish posts between 6 players, obs notwithstanding. Also, the game started in the dead of night where I am. Hydra Mini scum in ~30 minutes, 33 posts into the game. Ego Mini: scum posted within an hour of game start. 34 posts in. Noir Mini: scum four minutes and 6 posts into the game British Empire II second post of the game 3 minutes in. Red team's prize Scum in under an hour, 25 posts in. The Game scum 5 minutes in, second post All of these games violate Vivax's heuristic, but fuck me for pointing it out (without proof i guess) and questioning Palmar as to why he felt it was valuable, eh guys? . These are literally games just going down the list of the TL Mafia forum. I'm obviouscum trying to derail town from giving out Completely valid and well thought out town reads based on sound reasoning. Nah, you can all go die in a fire if you want to lynch me for this.
As of right now, I'm on Sharrant's side and would lynch rayn. I disllike his backpedal about "policy" miller lynching. I dislike his case overall as it is largely OMGUS, but still asks questions of the person he is accusing. However, his preface to his case was here: Show nested quote +On April 22 2013 12:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Wait what Sharrant.. Are you seriously saying that i'm trying to gain credit from town!TRN lynch on D1 as mafia? That's your conclusion? Show nested quote +On April 22 2013 12:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yes Sharrant, where are the other mafia players voting for TRN so that i can gain credit from the lynch? These two quotes don't accomplish anything to me. He's just throwing the question back at sharrant like a stall tactic of feigning disbelief. For having come up with a scumread on Sharrant it seems grounded in the fact that Sharrant is wrong, not necessarily scum. Show nested quote +On April 22 2013 12:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I fail to see how Sharrant can possibly think i am taking his "bait" and defending town!TRN (as he's now saying) as mafia. If TRN was my lynchbait, i would need my teammates to vote for him to gain the credit, otherwise defending him is useless for me. There is/was noone else voting for TRN.
That's the worst reasoning to backpedal from a scumread i have ever heard. On top of that, Sharrant obviously hasn't even read why i think TRN is town. Hint: The post where i answer OO about him. "If I WERE mafia, blah blah blah" No. I say you ARE mafia. ##Vote: raynpelikoneet
This post has been given as reason for hopeless being town, because it shows effort. I disagree. Most of the things Hopeless argues about in this post are completely pointless, and none of it has almost any bearing on anyone's alignment. Again, I'll break it down.
1) VE shouldn't be a town read because everyone had to look at the OP for their role, or whatever. I don't even understand what he's arguing here, and he doesn't pursue it. It's a non-issue, and it seems more like he's defending himself for doing what he did than actually pushing any sort of suspicion on VE. It's stupid, and not worth talking about.
2) Vivax gave out too many "free town reads" or whatever with his "no scum have posted before this!" post. What the fuck, who cares. Why does he care what Vivax is doing with his reads this game, unless he thinks he is mafia? It's an absurd argument, and again pointless. Just as pointless to argue that Palmar is suspicious for giving Vivax a townread over it. Another thing that seems self-serving, in that it's defending his contributions this game.
3) He's shutting down town reads of people. That point actually seems true, since that's most of what he's talked about. Valid criticism, but not all that damning.
4) The case on Rayn, which was woefully short and inadequate. Not only do we have the luxury of knowing that he was wrong here, but his arguments aren't even that strong. He takes a couple of posts out of context in an argument between Rayn and Sharrant, and calls Rayb mafia because they sound odd, or something to that effect. It's largely bogus, and Hopeless is obviously just taking sides in a town vs. town war and hoping to fan the flames. I view this as a point against him, not for him.
So when we break that post down, it's actually fairly apparent that his contribution esd largely self-serving, and have fairly clear mafia motivations. He wants to clear his image and appear to be "scumhunting" while he argues over town reads, so he slaps an ill-thought-out case down on Rayn and proceeds to do little else day 1.
On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Unvote: raynpelikoneet
##Vote: Oatsmaster
On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
Vivax where did your unofficial count come from it looks wonky...
in any case, this should be L-1 on Oats
##Unvote: raynpelikoneet
##Vote: Oatsmaster
This is his only other vote on Day 1, and as I analysed before, it's a shit vote with literally no prior explanation, and one that should have been taken more seriously. Hopeless CLEARLY understands that this puts Oats at real risk of being hammered, but there's no prior indication from his filter that he's considered this fact at all. The only justification comes AFTERWARD, which is too little too late.
On April 23 2013 22:37 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:42 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 23 2013 21:22 Vivax wrote:
Me and ace are basically the only ones asking people to switch to Oats, others say "can do", others say it looks like a policy, or try to push other cases.
If this was a wagon on a townie, scum could be pushing it easily at this point.
Why didn't any of this happen yet? There's resistance here. Again, worst reasoning ever. Cause im town. Yeah. Hopeless. Why am I scum? I think you're too trolly in the face of dieing to be town. I'm not even certain you have a scum read on anyone at all. You've provided next to nothing. A shitty list post where your strongest scum read is "well someone has to be scum, why not Ace". gtfo.
You can judge for yourselves how you feel about this, but I will note that Shiao's vote was ALSO justified largely post-hoc, and I also analysed that vote to be mafia motivated for the same reasons. And look what he flipped.
DAY 2:
On April 27 2013 03:52 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Vote: Sharrant
On April 27 2013 03:51 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 03:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Hopeless who is your preferred lynch today? tbh Sharrant until someone can explain how he gets away from his scumread on you, as evidenced from Show nested quote +On April 22 2013 13:26 Sharrant wrote:
--SNIP--
At this point I am less sure about Rayn being scum than I was then, because his conversations with other players has generally been good since that time, but he's still in my top 3 to lynch. I just haven't decided if there's someone I'd rather lynch more, like say Hopeless.
Any more questions? Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 00:02 Sharrant wrote:
It's a good try, Rayne, but no.
Let's get this out of the way quickly because I have to leave, and there's more important things to do when I'm back.
The reason I looked into you is because of your chainsaw defense of TRN. That fit exactly what I was looking for, so I went through your filter.
I am not trying to lynch you on the merit of you defending TRN, get that through your head. I am going to get you lynched because you are scum. You claim that after posting several times about how miller claims should be a policy lynch, you say that it's not a policy lynch you're pushing on BM. The closest you come to make to a case is "This isn't a miller lynch policy, I'm lynching him because he claimed miller which is scummy" which is exactly the same as saying "No, this isn't a lurker lynch, I'm just lynching because his low activity is scummy". It's just attempting to disguise that you were trying to policy lynch him.
The post I voted for you details exactly why I have you as a scum read. The possibility that you were a townie who made some crazy defense on TRN went out the window when I read through your filter.
If you can't understand that, I can't help you. Those important things, like not lynching your primary scumread? He doesnt return to 'get things done" until Oats is lynched. Clarity's spiel about 'easy outs' doesnt look that stupid to me considering how Sharrant's read on rayn went into the abyss with no comment at all. He just dropped his read with no explanation that I can find. What gives? There's also what I view as feigned contribution. I realize he's posted way more than I have, but when you post Show nested quote +On April 25 2013 01:29 Sharrant wrote:
Is there anyone around who feels like chatting? I don't want to put up any large posts until it's just about daybreak (which I think is in about 2 and a half hours if someone could confirm). and then don't drop a wall of text in some regard, it looks like faked activity to me. This is also his first post after insisting he has shit to do upon his return, but I cant find these amazing things he's done. He's focused his attention towards clarity, but clarity barely existed at this point. Where are these "better things" sharrant promised? ##Vote: Sharrant
In the Sharrant vs. Clarity thing that happaned day 2, Hopeless took the side of mafia, after having taken Sharrant's side day 1. Purely as an association case, this looks horrible, but when you consider that Hopeless' read of Sharrant changed so drastically overnight, it becomes even more suspicious. I'm not at all impressed with this vote.
On April 27 2013 05:23 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Unvote: Sharrant
##Vote: ShiaoPi
On April 27 2013 05:23 Hopeless1der wrote:
welp i guess im on shiaopi then
##Unvote: Sharrant
##Vote: ShiaoPi
...Why?
On April 28 2013 09:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
Yeah no one has ever exaggerated in their life, right Ryan?
...any who I need to eat my words on sharrant. My main reason in voting shiao was that I didn't trust sharrant. There is no good reason for him to be scum at this point. You don't suicide your vig into a teammate who proceeds to tear you a new one. I agree with most of the proposed big shots. Ie. Sketch bags on shiao's wagon. Unless shiao is ALSO a vig, he really should be considered town. Depending on flips and such, I'd consider him semi confirmed.
My personal choices for shots is sylencia and stutters. Obviously don't shoot me (herpderp), and I marginally believe wos.
Post-hoc justification, yet again. He stays consistent in that he "didn't trust Sharrant" so he didn't vote for Clarity.
But what did he do? He defended Shiao's image to the thread and threw shit at the people on his wagon. Why? Who the fuck knows. Before now, I see almost zero mention of Shiao and his read on him, except that he's "willing to hammer him". Not looking great for Hopeless here in this department.
Day 3... Nothing. While we did lynch quick, he made no vote. A non-issue, I suppose.
Day 4:
On April 30 2013 22:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Vote:ShiaoPi
On April 30 2013 22:39 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2013 22:27 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
OK so as I have been thinking recently.
We know there is one jailkeeper running around.
We know there are 3 dt claims(one now dead)
We know there is one mason still masoning, and one who is dead
We know we have 1 dead miller and 1 claimed miller(wos)
We know a mafia vig and a mafia framer are dead
We know a second rb happened n1. This means
a) palmar is lying
b) I am lying
c) An inactive town is a jailkeeper and has been mia for all nights since.
Given 2 millers, 1 framer. I find it extremely unlikely that we have two dts who have fucked up sanities. Insane is very easy to prove, as is insane. We know based on checks that obviousone is town, and palmar has a guilty check on him, I know I am town and he has a guilty check on me. Given that we have only been seeing 1 rb since n1 and joats can't rb as a power I am inclined to say Palmar is scum.
We know 100% that shiaopi is scum based on CC however I believe Palmar should be dealt with next at this time. I pretty much agree with all of this, except ShiaoPi could have been framed so its not 100%. Nevertheless, the correct move is to lynch him right now. ##Vote:ShiaoPi
Follows along with town's plan, altogether blending in.
Overall, it's fairly clear to me how little Hopeless cares about finding a good lynch. He doesn't spend much effort in the thread trying to discern people's alignments, and his votes on Day 1+2 look highly suspect. Just from looking at these posts, and some context in his filter, it's easy to discern that Hopeless is mafia.
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You could say that based on that, him living another day seems pretty
Hopeless
I award you THREE OO-points and may God have mercy on his soul.
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On May 01 2013 15:55 ObviousOne wrote:You could say that based on that, him living another day seems pretty HopelessI award you THREE OO-points and may God have mercy on his soul.
I wonder how many times Hopeless has seen that joke. That is a pretty damn good case on the dude though.
Page 80: MUST KEEP GOING.
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Wait, I got it! You could say that that joke was the
ObviousOne
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Did I give you the
[i]GiggleS?[/i
Ok I'll stop now.
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Curse you broken formatting, curse you.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/images/smilies/applause.gif)
