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Well I can see that everyone else went to bed. Anyway, I have some posts to reply to and some thoughts to share. Apologies if I end up triple or quadra posting but I think it's better than cramming everything into one post.
Wade Fell
I've been thinking about the recent messenger claim, and I've concluded that we should not consider lynching BH in the near future despite VE's accusations.
First of all, the fact that he is a mason explains why he was oddly confident that GK was town yesterday.
Next, keep in mind that he KNEW there was a flipped town mason role when he chose to contact VE. Seems like a pretty reckless move as scum. If BH is scum, there was nothing stopping him from "masoning" with one of his scumpartners and avoiding suspicion.
+ Show Spoiler +Of course there is the possibility that both VE and BH are scum and this is some crazy play, but I'm going to dismiss that for now as quite unlikely
There are still a few things about BH's D1 play I find scummy, but after reading through the events of N1, my gut tells me town.
And anyway, just as a matter of strategy, he is confirmed blue/scum. If he is blue, scum will have to choose between leaving a blue vet alive and using a KP on him. Win/Win for us. And if he is scum, that will probably become more obvious later down the line once we know more about the setup (and perhaps see the flips of GK and VE).
Anyway, I have a post written about about TPS for mr. wade fell so that's coming next.
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On March 19 2013 16:07 Wade Fell wrote:Sciberbia, what do YOu think about TPS? you talk about him a lot (link)(link)(link)(link) but I don't see any comments on his alignment besides an early null (link)
The Peashooter
Not sure how you missed it, but I did give an updated read on him in one of those links, in which I explained why I thought there was a pretty good chance he is town. Mainly due to his seeming lack of interest in the lynch, I am now neutral on TPS.
accusation that his first post was scummy
Setup speculation is tempting and I don't expect people to scumhunt in the first hour of the game.
+ Show Spoiler +
If anything, it makes me think townier of him. Does it seem like a typical scum move to get your role PM, meet up with your scumbuddies in the QT, and immediately spend 20 minutes constructing some half-assed setup speculative post, and introducing yourself to the thread with it? IMO, the answer is no.
Also, he did not even preview his first post. I think scum would be nervous about blundering with their first post and make sure to at least give it a preview.
accusation of fake anger at spam
I don't see sufficient evidence that his anger at your spamming was faked.
First of all, it's not like he went on a tirade. He just told you to shut up and consolidate.
Secondly, it makes perfect sense that he was mad at you for spamming (as opposed to VE) because he was already pissed at you from your earlier disagreements with him.
Thirdly, the sequence of posts he mentions was in fact annoying. Particularly when you and VE spent several posts talking about some other game.
accusations about opting out of town discussion
I agree it is a cause for concern that he spent a lot of time talking about Coag when it was pretty obvious that Coag was not a popular lynch target. He could have been using this tunnel as an easy way to appear to be participating as scum.
It does bother me that he was content to sit on Coag and for much of D1 even when there is no support at all for a Coag lynch. This is IMO your strongest point against him.
accusation concerning his post where he votes GreyMist
I agree it is a bit suspicious how he just sheeps onto the GreyMist wagon and doesn't show a lot of interest in the lynch.
However, it is also possible that he was genuinely busy, and he was certainly not the only one to show disinterest in the lynch.
In conclusion, I am pretty neutral on TPS. I could see him as either alignment. I am therefore not interested in lynching him on the evidence thus far.
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Thanks Sciberbia
So in a nutshell:
You dont want to lynch BH, because he is either town or scum... you substituted blue for town, but its the same thing...
And...
You dont want to lynch TPS because he is null after looking at 4 Exhibits
========================
Who is your vote preference this cycle?
& Delving into your read of TPS
accusations about opting out of town discussion
Do you think TPS parked his vote on Coag, and proceeded to beat off whilst lurking?
or
Do you think he was trying to pressure Coag to discern his alignment?
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On March 19 2013 16:21 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 16:20 Mocsta wrote:On March 19 2013 16:16 sciberbia wrote:On March 19 2013 16:12 Ace wrote:
How does Keirathi's death paint zarepath as innocent? I highly value Keirathi's opinion. The fact that he was town means that his opinion was in fact that zarepath is town. I still think zarepath is reasonably likely to be scum, but I'm less confident than I was 2 hours ago as a result of Keirathi's townread and flip. It was pretty fuckn clear Keir was town without a flip... I agree with this. Scib, thoughts on your scumlist now that you're not dead?
I formed reads based off of everyone's D1 filter. Here is my reasoning in brief behind each name on my scumlist:
geript:+ Show Spoiler +
I took minor issue with his very start of the game.
My major issue with geript was this sequence of events:
geript: Zarepath is SCUM
geript: Please vote for zarepath. Let's lynch him.
geript: Hmm actually I think I'd feel better about a GM lynch.
geript: You are fucktarded if you think zarepath is a better lynch than GM.
geript: You should obviously give zarepath another day to prove his innocence.
geript: No actually I'm changing my vote to zarepath because of some minor evidence DYH gave, even though the lynch is in an hour and it's 100% decided
Obviously I am paraphrasing, and I left out some details of the story, but that is the general gist, and I see a fishy inconsistency regarding his stance on Zarepath.
WoS:+ Show Spoiler +
Says nothing important for a good portion of D1. Just blends in a lot.
Says TPS/Vivax compelling but ends up null, and then hops on bad DP wagon.
Helped get GreyMist lynched.
I really don't see the sarcasm about DP
super active N1, will have to read closer
BH:+ Show Spoiler +
I already posted my notes on BH and I recently made another post about him. See those for thoughts.
glurio:+ Show Spoiler +
super blendy D1; hardly any original opinions
puts a useless vote on sandroba
sheeps VE onto bad DP wagon
shows not much interest in who actually gets lynched
overall does just about the bare minimum you can do D1 and still claim you played the game
zarapeth:+ Show Spoiler +
I think I've covered this enough.
trancestorm:+ Show Spoiler +
enters the thread by responding to some relatively pointless comment and discouraging scumhunting..
hardly does anything D1
says he has no reservations about a zarepath lynch but does not consolidate
instead leaves his vote uselessly on DYH
cosmicomics:+ Show Spoiler +
is a smurf who does nothing
enters thread by asking one unimportant question and then leaves for three hours
sheeps a bad case on DP then leaves thread for 23 hours
bizzarely unvotes DP for seemingly no reason <-- need to look into this more
suspicious timing of vote on GreyMist
another one who barely played the game D1
Unfortunately, it is now 8AM here so I really must go to bed. I am determined to lynch scum today, and will be hard at work when I wake up tomorrow. Good night.
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@Mocsta
In response to your remark about BH, knowing that someone is blue or scum is significant. For example if you have a claimed detective on D1, who claims to be able to get a guaranteed 1 check per day, then you would be a fool to lynch him. Obviously BH's claim is less powerful, but the principle is the same. If he is blue, he becomes more valuable the longer he is alive. And if he is scum, it becomes more obvious the longer he is alive.
In response to your first question about TPS, yes I examined TPS's filter and the case against TPS made by BH and came up neutral on TPS for reasons I have explained.
In response to your second question about TPS, I think it is undeniable that TPS did not do much discussing of candidates like GK, Zarepath, DP, or GreyMist with the town. There are two explanations:
1. TPS is scum and intentionally chose not to discuss those candidates for fear it would give him away as scum. Therefore he parked his vote on Coag so he wouldn't have to discuss anyone else.
2. TPS is town and he genuinely wanted to lynch Coag. He was too lazy and/or did not have enough time to discuss other lynch candidates with town.
I think both explanations are plausible.
As to who I want to lynch today, I really wish I knew. Right this second, I feel like cosmicomics is a promising candidate. I think it's rather odd how he unvoted DP for seemingly no reason. I plan to look into this more tomorrow.
Also, I still think zarepath is an option.
Do you have any snide other questions for me before I go to sleep?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On March 19 2013 17:09 Ace wrote:
Why would you claim Vet though as Town? Even if the Scum clearly know they shot you, they have no idea how the hit failed. Roleclaiming serves no purpose here.
To be clear, are you inferring that you believe VE isn't town because a town VE would have no reason to claim vet or are you lecturing VE for a poor decision?
Unless someone else claims a hit, I see no reason to doubt the hit with only one flip. Keirathi could have been a doublestack, but its pretty unlikely. Unless VE is still around 5 cycles from now I imagine the claim will take care of itself.
On March 19 2013 12:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
Kita what do you think of BH this game? TELL ME THE TRUTH!!! *hexhexhex*
I'll get back to you after I get a chance to read through the logs. If I don't, remind me.
I'm having trouble looking for a post if someone recalls it. There was a player who posted a bunch of links to a past game, without commenting on the content. I looked 3 times through the thread and couldn't find it, so I might just be crazy, but I was hoping to see if they ever followed up with it.
@TPS. If you can confirm/deny your identity as yamato, I believe it will give me a clue to your alignment based on one of your earlier posts and it is something not related to the Vivax guess. If you are town, you would surely be willing to reveal this small piece of information.
I'll come up with a much larger post tonight when I actually have more time, without getting interrupted every 3 minutes.
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Guess I'm just not sleeping tonight :/
@Kitaman
I believe you are referring to DYH doing some meta research on Zerapath. And he did indeed follow up on it. Just filter DYH
@Mocsta
While filtering you I found this.
On March 19 2013 17:08 Mocsta wrote:
Indulge me.. why are guys like Coagulation being allowed to fly under the radar?
I'm actually leaning town on Coag. Hence, no need to bring him up. And I suspect the rest of the thread lives in terror of having their head bitten off if they dare try to make a read on him.
Anyway, if you've played with Coag before, what say you to this:
On March 18 2013 17:34 sciberbia wrote:
- Coag hopped on the DP bandwaggon in the voting thread despite never mentioning him in his filter. Is this normal Coag behavior? Too scummy to be scum?
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I'm not lecturing anything or implying anything about his alignment, yet.
Just don't know how plausible it is for someone to roleclaim instead of just saying they took a hit, leaving the Mafia in the dark if they really did shoot someone on if the person has a role or got protted.
If only 1 person dies tonight and we are confident it's by Scum hands we can be somewhat confident VE is Scum claiming Veteran. I highly doubt if they have 2KP they are double tapping players on consecutive nights.
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Since VE isn't really high priority today we can just wait a day and see if mafia kill two people or not and deal with that when we get there.
I am still going through filters for a full list of reads. At first I consider BH's masoning of me to be really scummy but after reading the other convos he seems legit, so I'll be looking elsewhere.
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@Scicerbia did you Coag push any suspects in the thread? If not and he voted for DP that's a big problem on his end.
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ebwop: *did you see Coag....
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Hmm. Some thoughts.
I'm inclined to trust Wade Hand. Like scib had said earlier, it would be much safer for a scum mason to simply a) not mason anyone or b) pretend to mason one of his teammates due to the flip of GM.
As per his case on TPS, I've become more and more convinced after reading through TPS' justifications for voting for GM. It is interesting to note that TPS spends more time talking about how he thinks zarepath is scummy. Personally, I think that TPS 'let it play out' over the GM situation so that he couldn't be nailed over strongly leading the GM lynch as he tried to do with Coag. I'll vote for TPS right now.
My opinion on DoYouHas has retracted somewhat. I don't think he's been 'attaching himself to arguments' as I had said earlier anymore.
Also, Wiggo is still super-scummy in my eyes. His behavior during the GM lynch was really bizarre, but the single post I had highlighted earlier isn't sufficient to make me vote for him. I want to see his analysis today.
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On March 19 2013 16:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
No my role saved me. I'm Vet.
What was the name of your role?
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On March 19 2013 22:15 TranceStorm wrote:
My opinion on DoYouHas has retracted somewhat. I don't think he's been 'attaching himself to arguments' as I had said earlier anymore.
Which post of his changed your mind?
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On March 19 2013 17:08 Mocsta wrote:
Indulge me.. why are guys like Coagulation being allowed to fly under the radar? On March 19 2013 21:42 sciberbia wrote:@Mocsta While filtering you I found this. I'm actually leaning town on Coag. Hence, no need to bring him up. And I suspect the rest of the thread lives in terror of having their head bitten off if they dare try to make a read on him. Anyway, if you've played with Coag before, what say you to this: Show nested quote +On March 18 2013 17:34 sciberbia wrote:
- Coag hopped on the DP bandwaggon in the voting thread despite never mentioning him in his filter. Is this normal Coag behavior? Too scummy to be scum?
I haven't played with him before so not sure.
Regardless, he hasnt slipped off my radar; and with where I am up to on the thread, I have him as a null troll.
Will be keeping tabs on him this cycle; sure there will most likely be at least one or two active mafia.. but the rest typically love to lurk in the shadows.
With the GreyMist mislynch as my context: my goal this cycle is to look into what/whom *Wasnt* discussed.
But for now, sleep 
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On March 19 2013 22:03 zarepath wrote:
Since VE isn't really high priority today we can just wait a day and see if mafia kill two people or not and deal with that when we get there.
I am still going through filters for a full list of reads. At first I consider BH's masoning of me to be really scummy but after reading the other convos he seems legit, so I'll be looking elsewhere.
zarepath
And the point of this?
Kei might have given you a townish read; but Im still assessing you critically.
Lets see what this post says
(1) Please leave VE alone
(2)I am null on BH masoning me [i](not that anyone actually asked)]/i], I want to say publicly I am contributing, but simultaneously dunno who I should look into
==============
Care to explain why a townie would post a crock of shit such as that?
& considering the above is a big bunch of nothing...
why are you so quick to "contribute" by interjecting to prevent discussion about VE?
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I'm really hating this "why did you beat your wife" line of questioning Mocsta
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On March 19 2013 22:36 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 22:15 TranceStorm wrote:
My opinion on DoYouHas has retracted somewhat. I don't think he's been 'attaching himself to arguments' as I had said earlier anymore. Which post of his changed your mind?
The case against Ryu was well argued, even if he seems to have backed off his initial accusations against Ryu. It at least shows that my initial assessment that he just follows the pack without making substantive arguments was wrong.
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Here's how I see things:
TOWN
Vivax - Too much effort into too awful a case. Puts way too much attention onto himself.
DarthPunk - Too confident to not be town, and when under pressure was still confident. Pretty clean and open with what he thinks about whom.
geript - One of few players who think I’m scum who have actually looked at my filters of previous games, ie, done work for their read.
Glurio - Checks metas, bothered to defend me when thread sentiment was against me, unique and genuine look at WoS beginning of Night 1. Not a lot of content yet but all his content seems pretty pro-town.
DoYouHas - Of all the people going after me, he is the only one to pull up my meta and look at each of the filters for evidence. He’s been the one willing to do the most work for a zarepath lynch when it could be very easy to just bandwagon onto it.
Coagulation - Doesn't contribute a lot, but his thought process is clearly pro-town
sciberbia - Consistent with his reads, willing to look at and filter-dive on other cases, is thinking forward-motion
NULL
kenpachi - I don’t see him being really productive in general, just reacts to The Thread and not actively going after particular reads.
WoS - opening post seemed pretty scummy, but spent effort at least discussing the popular reads, going into my meta, etc. Potential scum slip puts him back in null territory to me
Wade Fell (BH) - I had a scum read on him until I read his other QTs, which showed consistency with his thread decisions that I had questioned. I think it’s safe to let him continue masoning -- if he’s scum, he’ll be in trouble trying to keep it up now that he has to answer for each person he masons, and if town, well, it can’t hurt. I thought it was odd that he picked me, one of the townies with the least amount of town cred, to help him lynch his top scum read. But oh well.
Hopeless1der - He read me as scum real quick, didn’t push it at all, came back to agree with others who picked up what he dropped off, and spent the rest of Day 1 criticizing other people’s reads and arguments. I thought that was a scum tell, but I can see how that’s null on a second look and after others have criticized my case.
What I am wondering now has more to do with Ace, namely: why hasn’t he shot last night? And why wasn’t he concerned about being shot last night? There was no night post for him with a list of reads. Mocsta and Keirathi have been talking about people, but Ace is talking more about arguments. I am still suspicious of Hopeless/Ace but I am not as certain of their scumminess; I want to see what Ace contributes when he is actually in the swing of things.
cosmicomics - votes for DP only after layabout literally asks him what he thinks about him. First time he mentions him, and then votes for him. But his other reads are only to say he doesn’t think people are scum, and his switch onto GM seems somewhat out-of-the-blue. Low contributor and I need to see more.
goodkarma - I disliked how he began the game, but he hasn’t really shied from the limelight. BH is a lot more confident about him than I am, but his general activity is enough to keep him from being as strong a scum read as my actual scum reads.
VisceraEyes - His tone has seemed fairly off, but he has poked and prodded in the right directions within his big filter. I don’t have a solid read on him yet but no reason to think he’s scum. Vet claim possibly legit, but I’ma wait until N2 results to solidify this read.
sandroba - Was so certain of his first town reads, which seemed impossible. Mocsta is being annoying, and the last time he was annoying like this in a game with me he was scum. I am very curious as to his reads and how he pushes them today.
RyuSuzaku - First post was a sketchy association case that didn’t seem to have much heart, just lots of suspicion; and wanted GM dead. Everything post GM’s lynch was him justifying his vote for him, no forward motion -- except for his final post, where he says VE and Test are his new suspects, both of which were fairly new/unique reads. I will wait to see how he pushes those reads and reacts to other cases today.
TPS - I’m not convinced of BH's argument against him. TPS seems assertive and active, but he doesn't scream town to me, either.
NULL-SCUM
TestSubject - Said very little, and only about people everyone else was already talking about.
layabout - Was all about DP and WoS, mostly DP, but in the end switched from DP to me without having ever said anything about me all game. Then later, this:
On March 19 2013 02:19 layabout wrote:
vivax i really like your case on zarepath,
particularly the way he calls greymist scum for not pushing him. Isn't that more or less what prom did last game?
This is a softball toss for somebody else to be like “U R RIGHT HE IS SCUM.”
SCUM
TranceStorm
On March 18 2013 00:38 TranceStorm wrote:
I have no reservations on a zarepath lynch. I have nothing to contribute on him beyond what others have already said. I think that DoYouHas is a stronger candidate however. This is all pending an explanation of the Vivax 'scumslip' though.
That was his justification. He also built no real case on DoYouHas despite going after him, possibly the most pro-town-looking player.
Mr. Wiggles
Seems deathly afraid of posting reads. His only contributions have been to disagree with other people’s scum reads or arguments. A very scummy and “helpful” “Will you two cut it out? It’s just a game” in his latest post. His GM vote came from being ASKED about him, but his justifrication is filled with “per my earlier post” and “as I stated earlier,” as if he is more concerned with looking like he’s always been for a GM lynch than he is actually justifying the GM lynch.
He said he didn’t want to post reads but I see no reason why not?
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##Vote: Mr. Wiggles
I'm voting to lynch Mr. Wiggles until he gives us some reads. The only two scum reads he's presented ever are goodkarma and GreyMist, and I want an update.
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EPT
