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On February 27 2013 16:48 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 16:34 Snarfs wrote:On February 27 2013 16:30 yamato77 wrote:On February 27 2013 16:14 Snarfs wrote:On February 27 2013 15:50 yamato77 wrote:
I'm trying to tell you, that's a terrible reason to be using to figure out where to place your vote.
You seem pretty convinced of it, though, so at least I can assume you're probably town for it. I almost decided to just leave this for the night because you seriously pissed me off with that comment. But I at least want you to convince me it's a bad case rather than just making me feel like shit T_T. Okay. So. Where is my flawed premiss? Your flawed premise is assuming that Sylencia is mafia. It's fine to read him that way, but when you start making decisions in the game based upon him being one alignment or another, you run into a multitude of problems, the biggest one being that despite your apparent conviction, the possibility exists that you are wrong, and Sylencia is town. What Sylencia is doing right now is only useful for figuring out his own alignment, not the alignment of the people he is voting for. But. I'm. Not. Assuming. He's. Mafia. I'm saying that Corazon is :S I don't follow that logic at all. I clearly just told you how someone could, and indeed should, ignore their read on Sylencia when factoring in who to vote for. That's like, your whole argument.
Bah. Maybe you're convinced Corazon is town, but I'm not. And I'm trying to figure that out. And you providing all the answers for him is not helping me figure that out. But I think you're town and you're pretty damn good so if you say so I'll just stop inquiring.
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Yamato, if you can make good cases, I will sheep you to the end of the game. If I agree with you :D. Also if you arent a dick to the players in the game.
We have slightly less than 24 hours, what do we do now?
Also I consider having a low amount of activity NOW a scumtell as there is no other reason to not be playing the game.
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My reads are almost done, you can discuss them, then decide what to do after that.
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Again what a superfluous post by someone.
Like dont post random shit that is not necessary..
I am guilty of this too and will try to improve.
Still pisses me off.
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You asked what do 'we' do. I'm telling you what to do. Wait and discuss what I have to say.
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stop talking to me and finish your list of reads.
Why are you making a list of reads?
Also thrawn, why do you want people to vote now? Its instant majority, I want to be sure when I vote. What is your reasoning?
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Adams list of reads. Read them now. Read them again later after I flip.
Oatsmaster
I've not hidden the fact that I think Oats is town. Ill repeat it again because I still see people attacking him when time could be better spent on other people.
In LIX, Oats rolled scum and Marv correctly Identified him as scum pretty swiftly. He lingered around a bit because of a quirk in the setup (him being made bodyguard), but eventually conceded when it was apparent he was done for.
Look at it from his point of view. He's just seen marv obliterate his entire scum team in a faceroll in LIX. Now, hypothetically, he rolls scum in this game again, and the first thing he does is begin attacking the guy that correctly identified him as scum in the game previous?
I think not. There were easier targets for a scum Oats to latch onto and pretend to be useful. Attempting to hide from marv until his death N0 is clearly the better move here for an inexperienced scum player.
Now look at it from another perspective. Oats being town this game. Oats has just seen marvs destructive power romp a mafia team, and wants him to do it again, so he starts to question "why isn't he doing it again?". This is the far more likely of the two scenarios.
His backflip on my calling of the duel, which he initially cheered on, is completely understandable. More experienced players are chastising me for it and he doesn't want to go against the grain.
Oats will flip town if you kill him, I am almost certain.
Snarfs
People are questioning Snarfs alignment, and I consider it a waste of time.
His first post, proclaiming town, just came off as so damn sincere. He's rolled mafia 3 times in the previous 3 games and he's finally excited to get back to what he does best (and what I think he does best) - being town and hunting scum.
He asks many questions and is generally curious about finding scum. Yes he's been less than active, but so what, when he has been here, he's been making sense, acting logical and been open with his reads as they come to him.
Snarfs will also flip town if you kill him.
Iamperfection
Town. He literally blurts out his reads as he sees them. This is vintage iamp town play.
He's confident and not afraid to shove it in your face - link
Do not waste time considering him as scum.
cDgCorazon
Most probably town. He's remained consistent with his 'hatred for heroes' throughout this game, which is mainly why I called him emotional (something he didn't like). He's gone after Sylencia, again, something I believe is an emotional response because Sylencia called him out for his play in previous games.
He also wasn't afraid to bash heads with Yamato when it came to it.
Posts like this - link - just look very town to me.
There are other people that are far more likely to result in a scum-flip.
Sylencia
Yeah this one will be controversial. Fuck it. I think he's town.
Look at his first post. link
He opens the game by confronting cDgCorazon over his piss poor attitude. This is confrontational, and he doesn't care.
He speculates a bit about third parties, which says townie paranoia to me. I don't feel scum are likely to do this as they fear being accused of making idle speculation on the setup.
Again, here, he confronts me about "the game not being all about me and my reads". He's clearly got the towns interest and the interest of the game as a whole in mind when he's making this post, and I suspect if he were scum, he wouldn't have tried to sway me off my warpath.
I don't see scum here. Yes he hasn't done much, but what he has done hasn't been malicious.
Alderan
Probably town.
His first post is great, accusing Deino for the same things I saw, also taking a shot at snarfs. I find scum generally like to tunnel a single person, especially new scum, so coming out with multiple suspicions always looks good in my books.
He is happy to butt heads with Acro and iamp (two well respected players) over the use of the double lynch.
I don't really get a sense of fear out of his filter, something I'd expect from his number of games played, if he were scum.
Thrawn
Thrawn is another probably-town.
He seems to be acting in a logical and sensible manner, telling people when they're 'reaching' - here and here
He asks a lot of questions, trying to get everyone's opinion on a subject, while also volunteering his own.
He continues to refocus people on the current problem at hand, the duel, when others are wandering off-track. His continual refocusing of people onto Keirathi when they're getting side-tracked on my meta looks very good to me.
His scum meta is to literally afk out of a game, which stands at odds with his current filter.
Hapahauli
Hapa, I read as maybe-town.
I'm a bit miffed that he's taken a bit of a back seat in this game and hasn't been as forceful or as damaging as he was in Witchcraft. Id say his play lines up a lot more with that of Hero mafia, where he was town, but struggled a bit to establish it.
Still, he asks good questions, such as asking marv to expand on his thoughts of Cora. He's being logical and using his brain here and here.
Unfortunately, he's defended two people that I have scum reads on (Deinosore and Zarepath). Maybe his reads are wrong. Maybe my reads are wrong. Both are possible.
Id probably consider lynching him if any of my scum reads manage to flip town.
Acrofales
Here's where I'm torn. Like Hapa, Acro took mostly a back-seat to day 1, which I find unlike his play in Chrono. Granted that was 3rd party play, but he was playing as pro-town as possible, so I just consider it a town game for him.
He asks good questions, tells Yamato and Cora to stop shitting up the thread, and isn't afraid to voice his opinion.
Unfortunately, he says not once but twice that I am not playing to my scum meta, yet calls it 'too early to tell' in regards to my alignment. He theorizes that my scum play has gone off the rails after the absolute pasting I got in Hero via Palmar, which I will grant is a possible conclusion.
His bloodlust in wanting both myself and keirathi dead has me concerned, he does seem more interested in punishing my 'bad play'.
What scares me is that all of this isn't out of the realm of possibility for his scum play.
I'm conflicted on this one, see what he does later.
Yamato and Keirathi
I lump both of these together because I honestly believe they're most probably going to be the same alignment. Scum.
Keirathi i've already gone over and recapped, find it in my filter.
I originally believed Yamato to be town, but his backflip after my calling for a duel gave forced me to reconsider. He called for the duel, wanted Keirathi to hang, got what he wanted, then didn't want it anymore.
Lets look at this hypothetically from multiple angles:
Yamato-scum, Keirathi-town. In this situation, Yamato has no cause to backflip his reads. Adam's come along to wipe Keirathi out and a mislynch is secured for Yamato and his scum team, so why draw attention to yourself by 180'ing your reads. Unlikely.
Yamato-town, Keirathi-scum/town. He had a scum read on Keriathi, seems to want him dead, and someone he claims to have a 'pretty sure he's town' read on is coming along to make that happen. I really don't see much of a cause for a read-flip here. It is possible, but not as likely as...
Yamato-scum, Keirathi-scum. He busses Keirathi due to his low activity day 1, expecting Keriathi to go into a duel with someone like Thrawn, who he also had a mafia read on and can contrive some logic to make Thrawn more scummy than Keirathi, ridding town of thrawn and saving Keriathi in the process. Insert 'bull-in-china-shop' Adam. Someone he's claimed a town read on has now called a duel against someone he's claimed a scum read on. This is a huge problem as it forces him to back flip both his reads in order to save his team mate. I find this to be the most likely situation.
Hate on it for being an association case, whatever, these are my thoughts.
Deinosore
Scum. I've discussed previously. Initial post was shit, wishywashy, did nothing. Since has been stalling and is yet to provide anything of worth.
Needs to go ASAP.
Zarepath
Zarepath has been good enough to post two list-posts worth of reads for us to look at, so lets look at them.
This post
Is a summary post and does very little to further the scum hunt. He commentates for close to 3 paragraphs on Yamato, Hapa and Thrawn before brushing all of them aside and attacking Sylencia for being afk. If Sylencia was his top scum read, I feel like it should have been placed at the beginning of this post and opened with, as its the point he feels most strongly about, not buried under 3 paragraphs of rubbish.
his second reads post
Again, another post of summaries and commentaries. Not a single alignment given, yet he mentions 8 people and labels it "reads and suspicions". This wall of text is about as padded as you can find, concluding nothing, accomplishing nothing.
I think he has a great chance of flipping scum.
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Interesting,
I disagree with you about Alderan, he is town because of his opening list post right?
Well that post really didnt accomplish anything.
He only concluded that Dieno was scum, but made no conclusion/reads on the other players surrounding Marv, even though some of their activity mirrored Dieno or was opposite to Dieno.
I dont understand why he made that post if he only wanted to target Dieno, other than to 'look' active.
After that post, he has been utterly useless. Not good.
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Right, I meant his second post, specifically, this one
Also, this post here post. Does not think that me being stupid and Keirathi being useless is a good enough argument to kill both of us, and wants to see significant evidence of scumminess. Why ask for people to produce something when you can just jump on guilt free because im 'stupid' and keriathi 'useless'.
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Anyway, after the gym and 3 hours of filter diving, i'm exhausted.
I put these up before someone has the chance to hammer me and I don't get to say my piece.
Ill be back tomorrow morning, approximately 12 hours from now. Assuming i'm not dead.
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Well I dont see that as a towntell, double lynch wasnt gaining much support and he defended his reasoning by 'its unlikely that they are both scum' which I dont think that Acro was saying that they were both scum as his reason for wanting a double lynch.
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On February 27 2013 14:15 cDgCorazon wrote:
Why have you not stepped up your game? Do you realize that in the last 2 games as town you have played really terribly? You've exhibited the same qualities that you did in NMM 33 and NMM 37 as town (lurkiness, lack of scum reads, being a distraction to town with your inactivity). The one time you were scum you played the same type of game and coasted to victory by having the town fight each other and kill each other off while he sat there and laughed in the scum QT.
Town Syl would see the flaws in his town game and try to improve on them.
Scum Syl would see how well this strategy works as scum (especially in a super active game where the town were at each other's throats from the get-go) and continue to play the same type of game.
Your behavior makes you look slightly scummy. The fact that you still have not changed your meta makes you look REALLY scummy.
Questions I would like you to answer:
Why are you lurking?
Why have you refused to give any scum reads or suspicions (your vote for Adam did not count because you basically went on the fence)?
Why have you not tried to improve on your play, especially after your role in town's defeat in NMM 37?
Why am I lurking? Not intentional, but my prime online time for checking this is during the slowest period of the day. I have that 4 hour period where I can post, and I have been but other than that I can only really read and answer short questions / make quick and simple observations as I see it from the latest posts.
Completely disagree with your statement about how I sit on the fence on the vote for Adam? Considering it's been reinforced over time.
Your perception on what is improvement is different to others. Don't ask stupid questions which are completely off-topic just so that you can get some sort of emotional relief. Your entire read on me these past 2 games have been so so focused on my past meta that it's truly blinding you Corazon. You've mentioned the way I played when I was scum last game, and you're mentioning it again now. Are you going to keep mentioning that until you hit it right and you can say "Hey, told you guys I read him like a book based on his meta!" It clearly hasn't worked out, and it's not going to work out now if you keep it up either.
On February 27 2013 15:37 yamato77 wrote:
I lost a game as town because of his propensity to lurk and be useless.
You lost that game because you literally ragequit. But that's the past anyways..
On February 27 2013 15:38 Oatsmaster wrote:I dont like how Syl basically said that his behaviour was the same as Keir's in the game and therefore, that made Keir scummy. Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 14:07 Sylencia wrote:On February 27 2013 13:58 Oatsmaster wrote:
Did you want to draw a conclusion?
Or something else? You try to nail me last night for what you're doing at the moment, but worse because you're statement essentially says you're killing off what you believe to probably be 2 townies. If you believe Keir is town, you have no reason to try kill him. Even if he's bad town, he still gives us the numbers we need to stay further afloat vs scum. Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 14:07 Sylencia wrote:On February 27 2013 13:58 Oatsmaster wrote:
Did you want to draw a conclusion?
Or something else? You try to nail me last night for what you're doing at the moment, but worse because you're statement essentially says you're killing off what you believe to probably be 2 townies. If you believe Keir is town, you have no reason to try kill him. Even if he's bad town, he still gives us the numbers we need to stay further afloat vs scum. The difference between my post and his post is in the timing, he posted his response like 5-6 hours after the duel started, with barely any input by the duelers. My post is almost 24 hours after, Adam doesnt look like he is apologetic, or wants to do anything useful for town at all, even though he acknowledged earlier that it was a bad move. Keir simply doesnt seem to care. There is no conviction behind his posts and again, he is one of the lowest contributers to this thread, even though he is getting lynched. I dont think that Keirathi is gonna flip scum, but on the slight chance that he is trying not to draw flack for his play, I am in favour of lynching him.
How does it take you 24 extra hours to realise that Adam is doing what he wants when he wants? That was already stated from the start of the game, and continues on until now. Keir doesn't care, Keir is a low contributor. I mentioned that as well. Posting what I said when I did just shows that the characteristics of the two players were very apparent already, but somehow you needed more time to see it.
I assume I'm meant to ignore that top part as you say, because I never said that :\
On February 26 2013 19:00 thrawn2112 wrote:
syl why isn't keir scummy to you? what's so surprising about people wanting to lynch him?
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On February 26 2013 11:18 Keirathi wrote:
I honestly haven't put a whole lot of effort into the game at this point because I've just been busy. I'm not going to force reads I don't believe in though, nor am I going to apologize for that.
You act like this is something new, though. In fact, iirc, this isn't even the first time you've made that statement about me on day 1 ("OMG you must be scum if you aren't sure about reads 24 hours into the game!"). Sorry, I'll work at my own pace and have reads when I have them.
This is something I don't expect to see scum doing in day 1. Scum can obviously abuse this by saying it to prevent themselves from having to backtrack later on, but we're not playing NMM with complete first timers. I would expect there to be some sort of communication between scum to the point where they would at least make sure they aren't introducing things they can't take back later. In addition, this statement only brings attention and significance to his future reads. This means when he makes his posts, they would have to be fairly flawless as scum or at least very defendable to stop too much suspicion being thrown on him.
His not sharing town reads isn't indicative of much, town reads don't show very much because it's the easiest for scum to manipulate, and I think should only really be shared if it's a strong read. Posts containing weak town reads are filler posts designed to look like you're contributing when you don't really have any idea what's going on, and even though they can be useful I personally dislike them.
His last post before he gets duelled is what makes me consider him at least 'less scummy'. His attack on Adam looks more or less like standard pressure play, his points made are completely valid, and you have to wonder: if you were scum - would you really be pressuring a loose cannon? Either yes, but they don't expect it to backfire, or no, they genuinely think he's acting suspiciously and he's getting answers. In my eyes, having scum attack Adam over someone else who's more suspicious seems too high-risk to be worth it, especially on Day 1.
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I'm awake and first things first. Lets ask this again:
Syl, if you think Adam and Keir are both town, who do you think is scum?
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But keirathi hasnt done ANYTHING.
I wanted to see how keirathi and Adam played the night after, apparently you didnt need to.
Being dueled in a situation like this, is kinda like getting red checked when you are town. You know you are town and you would fight to not get lynched right? Apparently keirathi doesnt really care.
Adam is not a loose cannon, look at Acro's previous posts. He is calm and collected in most of his games. This game however, is different. Is that difference scummy? Or not.
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Can we please have a votecount? Can you also please add Vivax and Gonzaw's filters to the OP instead of (or in addition to) a link to pm them?
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On February 27 2013 15:44 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 15:37 yamato77 wrote:
Have you proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that Sylencia is mafia? No. Then it's a bad association case.
The guy does fuck all as town. I lost a game as town because of his propensity to lurk and be useless. There's zero indication to me that he's CONFIRMED MAFIA and we should get off the person he wants to vote for.
The only question here is if you're really dumb enough to push this sort of logic or if you're mafia attempting to manipulate the lynch. You're not following me. If I believe that Sylencia is mafia. And I believe that Sylencia wants Adam dead. And I DON'T believe that Sylencia is busing Adam. ----------------------------------------------------- Then I should conclude that Adam is town. Corazon is missing one of these. That's all I'm saying and trying to figure out why.
Okay, this part makes sense. However, you seem here to present it as an argument for voting for Keir:
On February 27 2013 15:10 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 14:50 cDgCorazon wrote:
@Snarfs: I literally just said I have a good feeling that they are both town due to my read on Sylencia and his "on the middle of the fence but I'll vote for Adam just cause I need to vote". I'm voting for, in my opinion, is the more useless townie.
I think Sylencia's posts imply Keir has a much higher chance of being scum. (If you think Sylencia is scum).
Which it really really isn't.
Taking unflipped associations into account is a terrible idea, unless you have a bordering-on-certainty scumread on Sylencia. Even then it's possible that all three are scum or that both of Adam and Keir are town/3p. In both these cases any association is meaningless.
However, I am keeping tab of the votes and am not particularly happy about what I'm seeing. People I suspect of being scum are on both sides of the fence. Now neither votes have gone anywhere yet (I believe Adam is leader at 4, but not completely sure), so it's possible they just parked votes to have them there when the time comes.
Regardless, I think we should kill both. I actually really liked Adam's last list. It makes a lot of sense. However, I have never really had a problem with his reads, which is why I asked him if he was 3P. His whole playstyle just makes no sense for town. I am managing to convince myself he's the 3P with wincon I invented to fit his play, but I realize that I have no evidence for this, it's just a gut feeling. What he has promised is that if he's town he will be thoroughly unpredictable and will duel whoever he wants whenever he wants at any point in the future again. I cannot possibly see any advantage to town in that playstyle, it is 100% selfish.
Keirathi came by in his lunch break to promise reads at night. Never showed up. Story of his play this game.
Kill them both with fire. Scum Keir and 3P Adam will burn!
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Acro what do you think about Alderan?
Or you agree with all adam's reads?
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Okay, I read through Keir's filter. Here are the three main points I find:
1. He enters the thread with a post that does absolutely nothing beside announce his presence. He is, however, not present, because his next post is > 15 hours later. At the time it got my alarm bells ringing, but unless Keir's scumplay went completely down the shitter since GSL Open, all we can conclude from that is that he made a stupid opening post and then buggered off without ever contributing.
2. His pressure on Thrawn seems quite okay. Then again, Thrawn was pretty easy pickings. What I get from GSL Open is that scum Keirathi makes sensible cases on low-hanging fruits (Risen that game, on D1, in a similar situation to Thrawn here, if I understood what I read correctly). However, he is never around to scumhunt or update his read, so I have no clue whether he is trying to actually figure thrawn out, or just push a target for the sake of pushing.
3. His Adam read is the only really novel thing he has contributed to the thread. This was after Marv and I had both said Adam seemed to be null, leaning town (at the time, don't rip this quote out of context). However, he says that this wasn't a scumread on Adam, just calling him out on something he didn't like and trying to get a discussion going. The main question is: was this just throwing out a test balloon, or was he actively trying to figure out Adam's alignment? We'll never know because the conversation was cut short and Keirathi is too inactive to tell.
As you can see, his inactivity completely prohibits me from drawing any conclusions about what he has done. However, what makes him scum is what he hasn't done.
So far the wishy washy both sides bit where I explain how his inactivity is screwing with my reads. The BEST indicator of scum Keirathi is the inactivity himself. There are 3 players who have played repeatedly with Keir: Iamp, Hapa and Marv.
Keir has played about a billion town games between GSL Open and now. I can imagine it must be really scary to be scum for the first time in ages and playing with 3 players who are very familiar with your playstyle. Intimidated, and maybe short on time, he is simply not posting his reads like he would as a townie.
I will call it the Sandroba defense, because Sandroba did the exact same thing in CT: rather than try to play the game, even when he was at risk of being lynched, he just disappeared out of the game. In that game, I wanted to give Sandroba the benefit of the doubt, because I argued inactivity, in and of itself, is not a scumtell. I was wrong. I learned my mistake. Keirathi signed up for the game, he has played plenty of games to know what is the time commitment required. He is simply not motivated to post. That makes him scum.
Kill it with fire. Kill them both with fire! Vote for the double lynch
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On February 27 2013 21:26 Oatsmaster wrote:
Acro what do you think about Alderan?
Or you agree with all adam's reads?
I haven't made up my mind about Alderan. There's some things I think are weird in his play, but frankly, there are bigger fish to fry. I clearly don't agree with all of Adam's reads, or even most of them. What I meant with that I liked the list is that it seems a sincere effort to read the players. He brought a new perspective and is sticking his neck out on a number of issues. I don't expect scum to do that, and I definitely don't expect scum-Adam to do that. Doesn't mean I agree with his reads.
The reason Adam is not town is not because his reads are bad, or he is not actively trying to figure out the game. It's because he knows his duel stunt was blatantly anti-town yet threatens to do it again whenever he feels like it. Why would a townie threaten to pull a move he knows is anti-town? He wouldn't. Therefore Adam can't be town. 3P fits the bill perfectly.
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EPT
