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This Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia - Page 49
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yamato77
11589 Posts
Snarfs. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On February 27 2013 15:38 Oatsmaster wrote: IGNORE + Show Spoiler + I dont like how Syl basically said that his behaviour was the same as Keir's in the game and therefore, that made Keir scummy. Dont Ignore The difference between my post and his post is in the timing, he posted his response like 5-6 hours after the duel started, with barely any input by the duelers. My post is almost 24 hours after, Adam doesnt look like he is apologetic, or wants to do anything useful for town at all, even though he acknowledged earlier that it was a bad move. Keir simply doesnt seem to care. There is no conviction behind his posts and again, he is one of the lowest contributers to this thread, even though he is getting lynched. I dont think that Keirathi is gonna flip scum, but on the slight chance that he is trying not to draw flack for his play, I am in favour of lynching him. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On February 27 2013 15:37 yamato77 wrote: Have you proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that Sylencia is mafia? No. Then it's a bad association case. The guy does fuck all as town. I lost a game as town because of his propensity to lurk and be useless. There's zero indication to me that he's CONFIRMED MAFIA and we should get off the person he wants to vote for. The only question here is if you're really dumb enough to push this sort of logic or if you're mafia attempting to manipulate the lynch. You're not following me. If I believe that Sylencia is mafia. And I believe that Sylencia wants Adam dead. And I DON'T believe that Sylencia is busing Adam. ----------------------------------------------------- Then I should conclude that Adam is town. Corazon is missing one of these. That's all I'm saying and trying to figure out why. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On February 27 2013 15:44 Snarfs wrote: You're not following me. If I believe that Sylencia is mafia. And I believe that Sylencia wants Adam dead. And I DON'T believe that Sylencia is busing Adam. ----------------------------------------------------- Then I should conclude that Adam is town. Corazon is missing one of these. That's all I'm saying and trying to figure out why. Where in Sylencia's vote post do you see him "wanting Adam dead"? | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
Snarfs, you should conclude that they both arent scum together, not that Adam is town or Syl is scum. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 15:44 Snarfs wrote: You're not following me. If I believe that Sylencia is mafia. And I believe that Sylencia wants Adam dead. And I DON'T believe that Sylencia is busing Adam. ----------------------------------------------------- Then I should conclude that Adam is town. Corazon is missing one of these. That's all I'm saying and trying to figure out why. ... WBG, I feel you. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
Go fuck your passive aggressive comments. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
Seriously he told you not to use a bad association case and you reply with a bad association case...you didn't even stop to consider his point. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
You seem pretty convinced of it, though, so at least I can assume you're probably town for it. | ||
Dienosore
Brunei Darussalam622 Posts
On February 27 2013 15:38 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont think that Keirathi is gonna flip scum, but on the slight chance that he is trying not to draw flack for his play, I am in favour of lynching him. Quoting this for preservation purposes. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On February 27 2013 15:50 yamato77 wrote: I'm trying to tell you, that's a terrible reason to be using to figure out where to place your vote. You seem pretty convinced of it, though, so at least I can assume you're probably town for it. I almost decided to just leave this for the night because you seriously pissed me off with that comment. But I at least want you to convince me it's a bad case rather than just making me feel like shit T_T. Okay. So. Where is my flawed premiss? | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 16:14 Snarfs wrote: I almost decided to just leave this for the night because you seriously pissed me off with that comment. But I at least want you to convince me it's a bad case rather than just making me feel like shit T_T. Okay. So. Where is my flawed premiss? Your flawed premise is assuming that Sylencia is mafia. It's fine to read him that way, but when you start making decisions in the game based upon him being one alignment or another, you run into a multitude of problems, the biggest one being that despite your apparent conviction, the possibility exists that you are wrong, and Sylencia is town. What Sylencia is doing right now is only useful for figuring out his own alignment, not the alignment of the people he is voting for. | ||
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On February 27 2013 16:30 yamato77 wrote: Your flawed premise is assuming that Sylencia is mafia. It's fine to read him that way, but when you start making decisions in the game based upon him being one alignment or another, you run into a multitude of problems, the biggest one being that despite your apparent conviction, the possibility exists that you are wrong, and Sylencia is town. What Sylencia is doing right now is only useful for figuring out his own alignment, not the alignment of the people he is voting for. But. I'm. Not. Assuming. He's. Mafia. I'm saying that Corazon is :S | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
Based on the complete uselessness of both parties involved in this lynch, Adam and Keirathi, I think the likelihood of them both being town is high. Mafia in this position would be more concerned with the possibility of being lynched here, and do something about it. Neither of these players seems to be trying particularly hard to live, so by default they're probably just town. It's unfortunate that one, or perhaps both, might die in this situation, but if I had to pick one, I would pick Adam. Keirathi, I think, is the better town among the two, and could potentially be valuable to us later on if left alive. That said, at this point, it doesn't matter too much to me which one lives, because I don't think either of them is particularly useful this game. THAT said, I don't want both to die. The mere thought of a double lynch is hilariously stupid in this situation, and I don't like the idea of not choosing either of them at all. Mafia have an unprecedented ability to hide in this situation, because they don't even have to FAKE a read on a player and justify it, they can just say they think they're both worth lynching and not vote, causing a double lynch. So who is doing this? Iamperfection. I initially thought he was fairly townie, but his interest in this lynch is tremendously low. Like, I don't think he's given a read on either of these people that was longer than a sentence or deeper than "He's mafia because XX and I said so." In fact, that's basically how all of his reads have been so far, town or scum. But what is really damning, to me, is the fact that he's pushing this double lynch thing with no good logic to back it up. Acro, I can believe. Iamp is just kinda on that wagon and has pushed it without a clear motive like Acro's. If these two really are townies, like I think, then mafia is more likely to be disinterested in picking sides, and has clear motivation to want them both dead. It's the same heuristic I used to catch on to Snarfs in Nomination; mafia players don't care which townie dies, and won't spend much effort picking one. Only iamp isn't even picking one. Hilariously scummy. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 16:34 Snarfs wrote: But. I'm. Not. Assuming. He's. Mafia. I'm saying that Corazon is :S I don't follow that logic at all. I clearly just told you how someone could, and indeed should, ignore their read on Sylencia when factoring in who to vote for. That's like, your whole argument. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On February 27 2013 16:05 Dienosore wrote: Wait, hold on... Did I read this right? Quoting this for preservation purposes. like what is this for? Yamato, is there anything that you think that town can gain/salvage out of this situation? Or is it a lost cause already? | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
And we should definitely make sure we don't jump the gun on being stupid with these sort of duels in the future, because as my initial reaction showed, it's mafia-favored to do something like this. That said, I think I have some decent reads out of what happened today, so going into tomorrow, I hope people start listening to me. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
I'd rather vote based on the 'lose-win' scenario than the 'lose-lose slightly less' scenario. So do you have anything new to add to the keir vs adam discussion, focusing on which of them could be scum? | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 27 2013 16:56 thrawn2112 wrote: yamato, i say if they are both town then it's a lose-lose trying to figure out which one to lynch. what you are describing is voting on a "lose-lose slightly less" scenario. I think we would have more to gain by lynching on the basis of which one is more likely to flip red. if one of them is red, voting on the basis of saving the better player is stupid. I'd rather vote based on the 'lose-win' scenario than the 'lose-lose slightly less' scenario. So do you have anything new to add to the keir vs adam discussion, focusing on which of them could be scum? I've added the only useful analysis needed, if you bother to read my filter. Adam's play is mafia-favored, and his likelihood of doing this again is high, so if we're strictly talking about lynching people who are playing anti-town, he is the obvious favorite. Keirathi's play, while indecisive, does not indicate a strong mafia mentality. His Adam read was not in line with thread sentiment, and he was only just in the process of fleshing it out. His time does seem legitimately limited, as Hapa pointed out, which significantly excuses the "scummiest" part of his play; the apparent lack of interest in the game. Adam's play since calling for the duel is quite terrible. All he's done is excuse and defend his decision, he really hasn't added to town's efforts in any meaningful way. While I do think his defensiveness is a little weird, the overall tone of his posts and his mentality seems townish. He's not overly concerned with being lynched for this, so it's a decent sign he might not be mafia. Keirathi has played similarly since the duel was called, to be honest. The fact that neither one is a clear candidate, nor that anyone is pushing particularly hard for one or the other is a decent sign to me that mafia doesn't care at all which one dies, and town isn't confident enough in either being mafia to make a distinction. While the possibility exists that one is mafia, I think the likelihood is low, and if there is a mafia, it's far more likely to be Adam than Keir, because of the analysis of Adam's decision I made earlier on. | ||
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