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On February 28 2013 02:17 thrawn2112 wrote:
why should lynch adam
1)-we're in a closed 15 player setup. it's a little expected that there might be a third party. i've personally seen people lynch 3p reads and they flip 3p
2-you can't be too certain that keir is scum. if keir flips town, the thread will probably waste time on adam until he eventually gets lynched at some point later on
3-this is an excellent example of a time when you actually need to policy lynch just to keep games playable. imagine if this happens again? every day? you've been bitching about how shitty the lynch is, so here is you chance to put a stop to it
1) "We should lynch Adam because maybe there's a 3rd party and 3rd parties have been lynched in the past." - Not only is this irrelevant, but this makes ZERO sense. And again, a key theme of 3rd parties is a pronounced survival instinct. Where on earth is Adam's survival instinct!??!
The argument for Adam being a 3rd party is that he's more emotional and more cocky than usual. Lynching him for traits that make him seem more-towny is stupid.
2) "We should lynch Adam because Kei MIGHT not flip scum." - This is playing scared, and not playing rational. And I'm sure as hell opposed to lynching a player that's exhibiting townie traits and actions just because of doubt on another player.
3) I don't justify lynching my town reads on policy. I understand the need for deterrence, but this whole fiasco with Adam almost getting lynched should be deterrence in itself for him not to do stupid things again.
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@ Acro
On February 28 2013 02:12 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 01:58 Oatsmaster wrote:On February 28 2013 01:44 Acrofales wrote:Oh, dafuq. What is it with you people and your lack of reading comprehensionAdam is an evil 3P who cares jack shit about the wellbeing of this town
Keirathi is evil scum who needs to die Both must die. I will duel the next person who asks for my reads on adam and keir, because I hereby declare a policy lynch on people not reading the thread. Acro, if adam is an evil 3P who doesnt care about town, why did he duel scum and not scummy looking town? Its not like he didnt have plenty of options Scumslip? How do you know Keir is scum and not scummy looking town? Anyway, here are some reasons to want to aim at scum: 1. 3P doesn't know who is town and who is scum. Lynching someone who looks like scum covers them either way. The duel has to be believable not completely backfire and get the dueler lynched. 2. 3P survivor types just want the game to end asap (best chance of surviving). Extra wincons may require them to delay the end of the game, but lets not speculate too much about that, and just assume). There are two ways ending the game asap: landslide scum victory and landslide town victory. Most survivors are like observers: rooting for town until town derps so much that they are unsympathetic. So why NOT duel your scumread? 3. SURVIVOR. SURVIVOR. SURVIVOR. He cannot afford to be lynched himself (nor shot at night, but in this case lynch is clearly the biggest threat). Guess what gets Adam lynched? Prematurely dueling the crap out of a townie.
You mentioned earlier that Adam's persona doesn't make sense for his mafia and town metas. While I understand he's acting differently, how the hell does his actions make sense for a survivor? I'd expect a great deal more timidity from him. In addition, the risk/reward of his duel makes no sense if his goal is survival-oriented.
Like does this sound like something a survivor would post?
On February 26 2013 21:15 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2013 19:23 Acrofales wrote:
Adam: if you're town, you're a selfish douche who is not playing in town's best interest. I will reevaluate you, but I really feel like policy lynching you for playing like this. I will now fight my instincts, because I don't think policy lyncing idiots is a good idea, but that's the way I feel right now. Well, I am town and you can call me whatever names you please, I give not a shit. I cant even promise that this wont happen again if I survive this cycle....
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I'll be back in an hour. Till then, someone needs to explain to me why we're so sure that Adam is a 3rd party that we're willing to lynch him solely on that basis. 'Cause I don't get it at all.
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Arg got swamped with more schoolwork today. Fortunately I'm done with class for the week tomorrow afternoon, so I'll be much more available after then.
Reads
So to state the obvious, Adam is very unlikely mafia. It would make virtually no sense for Adam, a scumplayer known for his passivity, to jump in and risk himself in a duel to bus his scumbuddy. Knowing the allignments of both players on the block yesterday, we should be able to narrow down some of our suspicions based on how votes paned out.
(Even if some people think Adam is a 3rd party, it's effectively the same thing from a mafia perspective.)
People Who Voted Adam (Sylencia +Dienosaur)
They've played almost identically so far: they've done a whole lot of nothing in the early game, then plopped an early vote on Adam at the beginning of the voting cycle, then proceeded to do much of nothing until now.
They're both lurkers who haven't made any significant commitments and had their vote in awful places. I want both of them to duel tomorrow, and I'd push for a double-lynch unless I get convinced that one of them is town.
The "Double-Lynch" Voters (iamperfection + Acro + Thrawn)
iamperfection is active and behaving to his townie persona (as I previously mentioned). Acro is the most active player in the game so far and hasn't been afraid to take the town leadership position. Slightly offputting from his filter is his 3rd party read on Adam (which I think is nonsense), however that's certainly not a reason to lynch him at this stage.
Something about Thrawn is off, and I think he's a likely 3rd party. While he was one of the earlier votes on Kei, when push came to shove, he voted for the double-lynch. While that isn't bad in itself, what's most concerning is how and why he did so.
First of all, the timing at which he switched to a double-lynch is remarkably convenient. The votecount was 4-2 in favor of Adam, and zaperath + Snarfs JUST voted for Kei, swinging the momentum of the lynch. At this point, Thrawn immediately latches onto the idea of double-lynching very strongly. It reads a lot like he's seizing the opportunity to do collateral damage, when you consider some of the rationale for his switch.
On February 28 2013 02:02 thrawn2112 wrote:
if we kill adam too, nobody will dare to shoot early from now on
his desire to duel seems to have some sort of win-con type motivation. it's not like he and keir were really going at each other at the time. keir was not pushing adam veyy hard. adam volunteered to duel keir in my place... way before enough people had commented on the original idea of thrawn vs keir
if you look at the circumstances, the motivation for a townie to do what he did doesn't seem to be there.
On February 28 2013 02:17 thrawn2112 wrote:
why should lynch adam
-we're in a closed 15 player setup. it's a little expected that there might be a third party. i've personally seen people lynch 3p reads and they flip 3p
-you can't be too certain that keir is scum. if keir flips town, the thread will probably waste time on adam until he eventually gets lynched at some point later on
-this is an excellent example of a time when you actually need to policy lynch just to keep games playable. imagine if this happens again? every day? you've been bitching about how shitty the lynch is, so here is you chance to put a stop to it
He suddenly becomes very very convinced that Adam is a 3rd party in the first quote. This is just a feel for him from our history together, but I just can't see town-Thrawn having such high confidence in a 3rd party read. I haven't seen anything of the sort in the past games I've played with him.
The second quote is also very notable for two reasons:
1) he starts setup-speculating and just sounds a lot less confident that Adam is 3rd party.
2) He's justifying lynching Adam because he "can't be too certain" that Kei is scum. Yet he had been pushing the idea aggressively .
Combined with his inactive start, there's something just... off about Thrawn. I think Thrawn is a possible mafia that bussed Kei, but is more likely a 3rd party.
People who only voted Kei (Snarfs + zarepath + Alderan)
For Snarfs + Zarapeth, of these guys voted only voted Kei, and did so at a time that seemed to swing the momentum onto Kei's bandwagon. Both of their filters are pretty "meh," but I can't find anything overtly scummy there, and their voting actions (and timing) suggest a townie motivation.
For Alderan, there's nothing really conclusive in his filter since he was pretty clear that he thought both people on the block were town. His attitude is consistent, and I sympathise with it having initially been in the same situation to some extent. Also, I got some town vibes from his huge fight with Acro about not wanting to double-lynch. I'd expect mafia to not be as adamant against the idea.
Point is, none of them should be a priority for tomorrow.
People who SWITCHED from Adam to Kei (Yamato + Oatsmaster + Corazon)
Here's where it gets interesting.
Yamato... I had initially labeled him as very town due to his early-game aggression, but his activity died off in recent days. In addition, he's more than capable of being an aggressive dick as mafia (from my experience in British Mini Mafia).
He starts off the day all aboard the Adam train while defending Kei:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398360¤tpage=35#685
He maintains that Kei is town throughout the day. With Adam, he reverses course later in the day. The thing is that the reasoning with which he switches off Adam is so paltry in comparison to why he thought Adam was scum (see link above). These are the standouts:
Based on the complete uselessness of both parties involved in this lynch, Adam and Keirathi, I think the likelihood of them both being town is high. Mafia in this position would be more concerned with the possibility of being lynched here, and do something about it. Neither of these players seems to be trying particularly hard to live, so by default they're probably just town.
Adam's play is mafia-favored, and his likelihood of doing this again is high, so if we're strictly talking about lynching people who are playing anti-town, he is the obvious favorite.
...
Adam's play since calling for the duel is quite terrible. All he's done is excuse and defend his decision, he really hasn't added to town's efforts in any meaningful way. While I do think his defensiveness is a little weird, the overall tone of his posts and his mentality seems townish. He's not overly concerned with being lynched for this, so it's a decent sign he might not be mafia.
So in Yamato's world, Adam is playing to mafia objectives, but he all of a sudden drops suspicion because Adam's posts now seem "townish." Compare this again to his initial "outline" of suspicion on Adam:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398360¤tpage=35#685
Within an hour of dropping his suspicions on Adam, he's immediately onto Kei:
On February 28 2013 05:00 yamato77 wrote:
##Vote Keirathi
Someone with balls make sure this doesn't end in a double lynch. I have to go to work.
Yamato's actions come across as very convenient, however I can see a town Yamato doing what he did. The town Yamato I've seen in his newbie games and Mafia LVIII is very spazzy and aggressive, and is capable of his sudden turn in attitudes about Adam. I'll be interested in what he has to say tomorrow.
Oatsmaster seems townie due to his activity and his thought-process during the duel proceedings. He seems to care a lot about scumhunting... and well... just thinks a lot like a townie. Hard to put my finger on it, but it seems very genuine. That, and him being suspicious of marv in the early game against pretty much everyone else doesn't seem like a scum move to me.
Corazon
Pretty simple. Starts the day off on Adam:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398360¤tpage=38#747
Then spends a lot of time going after Syl. What's notable, is that Corazon really never bothers to analyze Kei's filter. His attitude on Kei is one of neutrality and hesitation:
I'm not convinced enough on Kei to see him die now. I was only ok with him dueling if it was because Thrawn picked him. I see a lot more scum motivation behind Adam's rashness. The fact that the votes already given out so far are all around the board mean that the chances of a scum being here is pretty high. I hate heroes anyways.
Eventually when opinions of the town start to shift, Corazon arrives at the idea that both Adam and Kei are town... due to Sylencia's vote on Adam?!?!?!?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398360¤tpage=48#956
He argues that Sylencia being non-committal makes both of them not scum, which makes zero sense. It's not scumhunting, it's a complete cop-out from doing any analysis
Then shortly after, there's his vote post:
On February 28 2013 05:16 cDgCorazon wrote:
Oh I read Yamato's post as 2 people...
Fuck it, I'm tired of sitting here and posturing for the next day. If Kei flips town I just know my agenda is going to be set back for a really long time...but I refuse to see a double lynch.
##unvote
##Vote: Kei
Why would a townie care about "posturing" for tomorrow? A townie wants to hunt and kill scum. I don't think he's talking about "posturing" of other townies either, since he mentions an agenda. This also makes no sense - why would Kei flipping town set back his agenda of lynching Syl? In fact Kei flipping town would seemingly confirm his theory that Syl's indecision = both Adam/Kei are town.
So Corazon's actions line up with mafia objectives, and his switch onto Kei is very suspect. He never gives a strong opinion on Kei, and his vote-post is nonsensical.
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geezus fuck that took forever
I'll be awake for the next half-hour or so if anyone wants to poke me to explain anything above ^
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@iamp
On February 28 2013 11:57 iamperfection wrote:... Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 02:52 Hapahauli wrote:
I'll be back in an hour. Till then, someone needs to explain to me why we're so sure that Adam is a 3rd party that we're willing to lynch him solely on that basis. 'Cause I don't get it at all. He said he would be back in an hour and then he didn't
I'd love to spend all my time on this game, but School > Mafia
As I've said before though, I'm home free for several days starting tomorrow afternoon, provided I don't get shot.
You know what this means well do you? It means he does not care about town.
hapa can die.
Just because I have a gap of inactivity doesn't mean I don't care. This is the same shit that I got mislynched for in Hero, and almost got lynched for in Chrono Trigger.
He can be a leader and he isnt
he could name the whole scum team as town by now he isnt
I hope this is sarcastic...
Anyway, you're completely wrong, but I see where you're coming from given our most recent game together
Just take a look at my actions yesterday and think about whether they make sense from a mafia perspective or not.
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On February 28 2013 15:45 thrawn2112 wrote:
hapa, who do you want to be in a duel and how do you propose to do it? and who would you duel yourself?
My full proposition for tomorrow is this:
I'd like Dieno and Sylencia to duel, unless one of them starts showing some significant townieness. I'd also like to double-lynch 'em by default and leave it up to them to prove that they're town individually. If one of them does, I'd add Corazon to the list.
As for HOW we should go about that, well you can only start by asking nicely. If that doesn't work, we can probably force one of them to duel the other by threatening to have Adam duel one of them (which is basically a vigi-shot given that there's no sane way that Adam's scum).
As for who I'd duel myself, I wouldn't duel period. I think my voting actions speak for themselves yesterday. I get that I'm less active than usual, but it should be obvious that I'm playing to town objectives. Nor do I get the sense that there's any support for me dueling tomorrow (besides iamp anyway).
If you're asking for a top scumread - it's hard to differentiate between Dieno/Sylencia since they've both played nearly identical games. Put a gun to my head, and I'd say Dieno on the basis that Sylencia has a history of being lurky as town in some of his newbie games, whereas Dieno's town performance in CT was pretty darn active.
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Freeeeeedommmmmm!
Catchin' up
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On February 28 2013 20:23 Acrofales wrote:
@Hapa: I agree with some of your reads and disagree with others, when I finish filtering I will decide what that entails. However, for the moment, what is Thrawn the 3P's wincon? You can't just posit that he's a 3P because he wanted multiple people dead, out of the blue. Why does that fit with a survivor wincon? Where is the KP from an SK? You have to explain how that works, because I just don't see it.
You state that me suggesting there's a 3P in Adam is bad play or scummy: what does offputting mean in that sentence?
Yet 5 lines down you are doing it yourself for thrawn. Explain.
He seems like a survivor. His recent days have been fairly active, but there's not much analysis in there. It feels like he's playing not to get shot. It's similar to your read on Adam, in that his play this game doesn't match very well with his town or scum metas. He's lacking some of the humor and fearlessness I associate with his town-play, but he's more active than I'm used to seeing out of his scum play.
I mentioned "offputting" because I REALLY disagree with your analysis on Adam. It's something that nags in the back of my mind every time I read your filter. That's basically it.
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@ Syl
Idealistic, but you would think that the 4th scum (if any) would at least have the brains to stop this from happening if this was true. Even I would've seen from a mile away that leaving my vote on Adam would've been a dumb move if I was going to sleep with chances to hammer at any time (mainly saying this about the second half of the day, I would probably still vote at the time I did) leaving my vote exposed as scum. Deino who seems to have been in a similar situation following suit would mean that both of us being scum were very confident that town would vote for double lynch / Adam. Adam getting killed was still far off, and with the votes being 3-4 or something before the real movement happened, it's not like scum could convincingly say that it was in the bag at all.
So if I was scum, it would've been very very easy for me to simply withdraw my vote under the "Oh keir has done nothing for this half of the day, I'll re-evaluate." context. But I didn't. I stood my ground, and gave more reasoning. tl;dr You are at least half wrong about this, so assuming there are 4 scum, you're still missing one.
"My vote was too scummy for me to be scum" isn't a very good defense. What's very suspicious about your vote (and Dieno's) is how early you were on Adam, and how "clean" your play has been so far. You haven't done anything to stick your neck out - you just stick to one straight story and "blend in" while pursuing mafia objectives (lynching Adam).
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@ Cora
@Hapa: Why would I switch off a vote that was most likely going to be deadlocked and letting a non-scum and a scum die to just have my supposed "scum-buddy" die? That doesn't make any sense.
It makes perfect sense. Momentum was swinging very rapidly against Kei towards the end of the day. When you made the hammer vote, Thrawn was openly thinking about hammering Kei himself.
I wasn't focusing on Thrawn and Kei D1, I was more focused on Oats and Syl when it came to my scumhunting. The latter half of the duel consisted of us talking about people other than the duelists. I just decided to end it and instead of scumhunting with a hint towards the future, we speed things up and force the other scum to come out of their holes instead of sitting there and having a vote deadlock.
In all honesty my switch from Adam is going to look scummy either way. If I had stayed on Adam I would've looked scummy for refusing to switch to a scum. I decided to switch and we lynched a scum. Let's have a party.
Firstly you mean Adam and Kei (not Thrawn and Kei), correct?
Anyway, I think you missed a lot of my suspicions against you. Here's the rundown:
1) You had a town-read (and was soft defending) Kei for very suspect rationale. Syl's "indecision" on the lynch makes no sense for you to give a town-read on Kei. Furthermore, since Syl voted Adam, I would have expected you to support a Kei lynch much more.
2) You never try to analyze the filter of Kei. You have no shortage of words and rationale for Adam earlier in the day, but when it comes to Kei, I never got a hint that you even looked at his filter from your posts.
On another note, if I had said "I'm switching cause I felt like it", would you have a town read on me?
Speculating about what you didn't do is pretty pointless.
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On March 01 2013 07:36 yamato77 wrote:
Hapa, when you have time, I absolutely need your input on my case on Acro.
Like, you can't post any more reads without reading that.
Going page-by-page. I'll get to it when I get to it.
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@ Yamato
You bring up two main points about why Acro could be scum:
1) His double-lynch idea despite thinking Kei was super-scummy
2) His obsession with Adam being a 3rd party
While I hate the logic behind Acro's stances, I don't see anything sinister in it. If he was really convinced that Adam was a hostile 3rd party, then it would make sense for Acro to want to see both duelers dead. I think Acro is being too much of an asset to the town right now to even consider dueling. He's active, vocal, and has been town-leader for the last few days.
That being said, all this stuff on Acro makes me REALLY want to see Syl and Dieno flip. Acro's been very vocal about both those players, and particularly notable is his sudden change of heart on Dieno (from lynch-bait to sure-mafia).
If syl flips scum, this will vindicate Acro considerably. I'll be really concerned about Acro if both flip town or if we get a Syl-town/Dieno-scum flip.
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hapa, idk what thread you are reading where my play suggests i'm a survivor, or that I haven't been fearless, or that i could have possibly bussed keir. what is your point with all that? Are you wanting to lynch me?
No I don't want to lynch you for now. There are three people I want to see dead before I even consider lynching you (Dino, Syl, Cora).
As for why I think you're a third party, you are more passive than I'm used to seeing out of you. You're also more aggressive than I'm used to seeing out of your scum-games. You fall somewhere in the middle, and the simplest explanation is that you're a Third Party.
In the last few town-games I've seen out of you, you started off with stupid random comments/votes designed to spurr discussion, and you were super-active in the early-game as well. You started off the opposite this game. In addition, I'm used to seeing more scum-hunting contributions from you. Your only major contribution is your recent case on Dieno...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398360¤tpage=75#1489
which is a complete rehash of my own case on him on Day 1. Not to mention that it's an overkill case that serves no purpose, since virtually everyone here wants to see Dieno hang.
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On March 01 2013 08:49 Sylencia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2013 07:34 Hapahauli wrote:@ SylIdealistic, but you would think that the 4th scum (if any) would at least have the brains to stop this from happening if this was true. Even I would've seen from a mile away that leaving my vote on Adam would've been a dumb move if I was going to sleep with chances to hammer at any time (mainly saying this about the second half of the day, I would probably still vote at the time I did) leaving my vote exposed as scum. Deino who seems to have been in a similar situation following suit would mean that both of us being scum were very confident that town would vote for double lynch / Adam. Adam getting killed was still far off, and with the votes being 3-4 or something before the real movement happened, it's not like scum could convincingly say that it was in the bag at all.
So if I was scum, it would've been very very easy for me to simply withdraw my vote under the "Oh keir has done nothing for this half of the day, I'll re-evaluate." context. But I didn't. I stood my ground, and gave more reasoning. tl;dr You are at least half wrong about this, so assuming there are 4 scum, you're still missing one. "My vote was too scummy for me to be scum" isn't a very good defense. What's very suspicious about your vote (and Dieno's) is how early you were on Adam, and how "clean" your play has been so far. You haven't done anything to stick your neck out - you just stick to one straight story and "blend in" while pursuing mafia objectives (lynching Adam). Sure isn't a good defense, but do explain how you can say with that I'm pursuing mafia objectives by trying to lynch someone we don't know the alignment of because they haven't flipped? I haven't made excuses for voting Adam, trying to make myself look any better because of a scum flip, because that would just be me lying to you all. I haven't had any regrets having my vote on Adam because he seemed like the worse player at the time, even though that's shown to be wrong.
Yeah sure townies can certainly have their vote in the wrong place in the wrong time. For example Oats did something similar voting-wise to you, and I think he's town.
The issue with you is that your vote was in the wrong place, you're extremely lurky, and you haven't been sticking your neck out at all.
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Oh Dieno pulled the trigger. That went easier than expected.
Anyway, by default I want you both dead. It's up to both of you to indvidiaully convince me that I'm wrong and that you're town.
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/off topic
Tasteful soundtrack, nice choice
*thumbs up*
/off topic
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On March 01 2013 10:14 thrawn2112 wrote:
actually fuck it, i think worrying about if we want to double lynch this early on is completely counter productive.
##Vote: Dienosaur
Why is it counter-productive? I think it encourages the two people we need to talk the most (Syl and Dieno) to talk more.
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?
What changed your mind thrawn?
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EPT
