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iamperfection
United States9649 Posts
On February 27 2013 00:59 Alderan wrote: Taking a stance?... wat.... Hey town, how about we not take a stance on things like double lynching townies. Neither of those are good enough reasons to lynch. So again, let's NOT "take a stand". you know something i dont? | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 25 2013 10:06 Adam4167 wrote: This started 30 minutes after i went to bed, bleh =( I agree with Yamato, If i see scum, i'll make my case and duel them. This was literally his first post. Terrible play, and really set town back because I think we were making some headway, but he did exactly what he said he was going to. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
I know that one being stupid and one being useless is not reason enough to lynch both. If I see some significant scum evidence on BOTH then I would advocate a double lynch, but because it's fairly certain they are not both scum then what you are proposing is essentially a random lynch. | ||
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iamperfection
United States9649 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:09 Alderan wrote: I know that one being stupid and one being useless is not reason enough to lynch both. If I see some significant scum evidence on BOTH then I would advocate a double lynch, but because it's fairly certain they are not both scum then what you are proposing is essentially a random lynch. i dont know what your expecting some sort of smoking gun evidence that so and so is mafia it isnt gonna happen This is an educated guessing game after all. Kier doesn't care about this game. He is not interested in finding scum Adam did something stuipd that acro points out should be punished. both can be mafia | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:17 iamperfection wrote: i dont know what your expecting some sort of smoking gun evidence that so and so is mafia it isnt gonna happen This is an educated guessing game after all. Kier doesn't care about this game. He is not interested in finding scum Adam did something stuipd that acro points out should be punished. both can be mafia I guess it just comes back to your personal opinion on lynching lurkers day 1. I'm against it, never works out. A double lynch here feels the same way. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
The problem is that only Keirathi and Adam are up for lynch, and while I think three other people are more likely to be scum than either of these two, the question now is: Who is scummier? And while most of Adam's scummy traits can also be attributed to the Insane Town persona that is chasing him, he still has far more scummy traits than Keirathi does. If there weren't nightly scum kills, I would want to no-lynch. This is a bad pairing; the only people who wanted Keirathi in a duel were Adam and Thrawn, and the only people who wanted Adam in a duel were Adam -- and if Adam is town, then scum. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18487 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:06 Alderan wrote: This was literally his first post. Terrible play, and really set town back because I think we were making some headway, but he did exactly what he said he was going to. So lets go from a townie viewpoint: 1. Make post saying you'll duel whoever you want whenever you want. 2. Get told it's dumb and back down from that point (at least the whenever part). 3. Do it anyway, with no justification. How does this thought process make sense? Also, if you think Adam is a terrible town player go read his other games: he's not. As town, he is outspoken and cocky, but meticulous about his reads and careful about his actions. Why is he suddenly throwing caution to the wind to duel someone he has an unexplained scumread on? | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18487 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:09 Alderan wrote: I know that one being stupid and one being useless is not reason enough to lynch both. If I see some significant scum evidence on BOTH then I would advocate a double lynch, but because it's fairly certain they are not both scum then what you are proposing is essentially a random lynch. So lets say we lynch Keirathi. Atm I'd say there's a fair chance he flips scum, but I am nowhere near sure enough to bet the game on it. That means Adam gets off free. If Keirathi flips scum, that is awesome. If he flips town, then we are virtually forced to lynch Adam tomorrow. Possibly resulting in another mislynch, because it turns out he really was just a stupid townie and not scum. If we lynch Adam and he flips "stupid townie", then Keirathi might still be scum. So far Keirathi has made absolutely no move toward scumhunting (past his case on Adam, which in hindsight isn't nearly as bad as it looked when he made it, but is still not stellar). So at the moment, a double lynch looks like by far the best option. It also leaves us with the maximum time (48 hours) and if either Adam or Keirathi start to look way more townie than they do now, we can always just lynch one of them. If we were to lynch one of them right now, my first choice would absolutely be Adam, but I still like the Keirathi lynch too. Chance of both being scum is tiny, but given that I estimate the chance of Adam being scum at 75% and Keirathi being scum at 60%, that means my estimate of at least one being scum is 90%. A 1 for 1 trade seems good to me at the moment and a 90% chance at a 1 for 1 trade feels better than a 75% chance at lynching a scum. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18487 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:24 zarepath wrote: Looking through Keirathi's filter, I don't have a full town read on him, but he doesn't look nearly as scummy as Sylencia or Thrawn, and not as suspicious as Dienosore, and certainly not as counterproductive to town goals as Adam. The problem is that only Keirathi and Adam are up for lynch, and while I think three other people are more likely to be scum than either of these two, the question now is: Who is scummier? And while most of Adam's scummy traits can also be attributed to the Insane Town persona that is chasing him, he still has far more scummy traits than Keirathi does. If there weren't nightly scum kills, I would want to no-lynch. This is a bad pairing; the only people who wanted Keirathi in a duel were Adam and Thrawn, and the only people who wanted Adam in a duel were Adam -- and if Adam is town, then scum. I think we can safely conclude there are nightly scum kills, because Marv died and I don't think we have an insane vigilante running around. An SK with KP when scum doesn't have any would be extremely imbalanced. It's possible they have limited KP, but unless they have serious power roles, I don't see much balance reason to assume they don't just have a standard 1 KP (maybe even with a vig power or so, because 1 KP seems low for a 15-player game). Talking about night actions, there have been no hit or roleblock claims. I just assumed everybody knows how to react, but just in case: if you were hit or roleblocked and know about it, claim that shit. | ||
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Dienosore
Brunei Darussalam622 Posts
So adam finally pulled the trigger on keirathi, huh. Can't say this really surprised me, however his choice of target seems a little strange. Keir wasn't really on my radar or maps at all. He showed up a little late then it looks like he was making an effort to jump back into the game. How much time do we have left before voting ends? If I can, I'll try to jump on when bosslady isnt looking. If not, I'll be back after work to do some investigation and vote. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On February 27 2013 00:47 Acrofales wrote: @Iamp, Hapa, Alderan: explain to me why Adam's situation is different from Meapak's shot in Bang Bang Mafia 2. I have no idea wtf happened in that game and I'm in school for the next few hours. Can you give me the rundown? I'll take a look at it myself tonight. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
How did you get those numbers, looks way too random. I do not think that double lynching is the answer, because there is one less nightkill/lynch scum need to do to win. There arent 25 players in this game, there are 15 so we cannot be casual about lynches and killing someone to be 'safe' | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18487 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:29 zarepath wrote: Why would scum suddenly throw caution to the wind to duel someone they have an unexplained read on? That's what I can't figure out. I can think of some serious association reasons, which I don't want to get into until we actually flip some of these people. An advantage, that is free from unflipped association, is obviously stopping what was clearly a good, productive discussion in town, with both Thrawn and Keirathi, the major scumspects, participating. If Marv and I are on the right track with our town reads, then scum is already in trouble. Shutting down productive discussion is important. Look at what happened? The conversation veered radically off-track and is now a minefield of futility discussing Adam's meta, instead of focusing on scumhunting in the game. If you think you can argue yourself out of getting lynched, with the "that shit is too crazy for scum to pull"-defense, you might even underestimate the risk. The alternative to killing Adam is killing Keirathi. I currently don't feel too happy about killing him without also killing Adam. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:35 Acrofales wrote: So lets say we lynch Keirathi. Atm I'd say there's a fair chance he flips scum, but I am nowhere near sure enough to bet the game on it. That means Adam gets off free. If Keirathi flips scum, that is awesome. If he flips town, then we are virtually forced to lynch Adam tomorrow. Possibly resulting in another mislynch, because it turns out he really was just a stupid townie and not scum. If we lynch Adam and he flips "stupid townie", then Keirathi might still be scum. So far Keirathi has made absolutely no move toward scumhunting (past his case on Adam, which in hindsight isn't nearly as bad as it looked when he made it, but is still not stellar). So at the moment, a double lynch looks like by far the best option. It also leaves us with the maximum time (48 hours) and if either Adam or Keirathi start to look way more townie than they do now, we can always just lynch one of them. If we were to lynch one of them right now, my first choice would absolutely be Adam, but I still like the Keirathi lynch too. Chance of both being scum is tiny, but given that I estimate the chance of Adam being scum at 75% and Keirathi being scum at 60%, that means my estimate of at least one being scum is 90%. A 1 for 1 trade seems good to me at the moment and a 90% chance at a 1 for 1 trade feels better than a 75% chance at lynching a scum. I say we lynch one (I'm still working through which one) and then wait and see how the night goes. No reason rushing into it if we have tools that would shed some light on the issue. Anyway its about time we stop talking about it, as it doesn't seem that a double lynch has much shot, and we're going round in circles. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18487 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:44 Oatsmaster wrote: Wait what? How did you get those numbers, looks way too random. I do not think that double lynching is the answer, because there is one less nightkill/lynch scum need to do to win. There arent 25 players in this game, there are 15 so we cannot be casual about lynches and killing someone to be 'safe' How do you figure that? How do you even know how many scum and how many town there are? How do you know how much KP there is? If I make some basic assumptions, then all mislynching 2 townies on one day does is change the last day from mylo to lylo. However, if we mislynch Adam and Keirathi on consecutive days, then we have wasted an entire cycle and moved us a day closer to mylo. I'm not saying I will hold to the double lynch regardless of what happens, but I honestly don't see how we can let Adam run loose, given the risk of a mislynch on Keirathi. For me the following stands fairly clearly in my brain:
The only situation this doesn't hold is if Adam suddenly becomes the most townie town anybody has ever seen or Keirathi claims scum. If we lynch both and get a 1-1 trade, then using the same basic assumptions above, we remain at exactly the same number of mislynches until town loss. The assumptions are: 4 scum, no SK, 1 KP per night. This makes it a 3-mislynch=town loss game (given the night start), which is a reasonable assumption from a balance pov. Regarding my percentages: they're gut feeling, they are somewhat arbitrary, because quantifying what my gut is telling me about how likely someone is to flip scum is hard to quantify. However, the general principle holds. If you feel there is a decent chance that both will flip scum, then lynching both to ensure a 1-1 trade is not a bad idea at all. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On February 27 2013 01:29 zarepath wrote: Why would scum suddenly throw caution to the wind to duel someone they have an unexplained read on? That's what I can't figure out. ^ This sums up what I'm thinking. What does "scum-Adam" have to gain in this situation? It is a really fucking stupid play for a townie, but it's also even WORSE from a scum perspective. The one argument I can think of is that "scum-Adam" wanted to make it look like he was being "brave" and taking a risk by dueling someone he had a high chance of winning against. However even this doesn't make very much sense. For one, putting yourself on the block so suddenly is still a risky proposition. Secondly, this doesn't look calculated or planned at all - it reads a lot like a "FUCK IT, LET'S DO IT" duel given how suddenly and unexpectedly Adam decided to pull the tigger. | ||
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