EPTAlso, restriction of choice is restriction of information. While I think thrawn is scum and I think I'll vote for him regardless of whom he duels, he may yet convince me otherwise (see Marv's story about H1 at the start of N1). Allowing townies a choice in who they lynch allows them an opportunity to argue their way out of a lynch. The flipside is that it allows scums the same opportunity. We'll just have to trust our scumhunting skills to distinguish between the two.
This Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia - Page 31
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Acrofales
Spain18001 Posts
Also, restriction of choice is restriction of information. While I think thrawn is scum and I think I'll vote for him regardless of whom he duels, he may yet convince me otherwise (see Marv's story about H1 at the start of N1). Allowing townies a choice in who they lynch allows them an opportunity to argue their way out of a lynch. The flipside is that it allows scums the same opportunity. We'll just have to trust our scumhunting skills to distinguish between the two. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
Right? Right So let's see who was vocally pro Marv, who was indifferent, and who took a stand against him. By the way these are just some notes I'm jotting, we need to get some feedback on them. I'm fairly certain they could prove to be useful. Protip: this is not who I think is "Leaning Town","Null", "Suspicious" This is what Im inferring from people's filters about their thoughts on Marv. Leaning Town Hapahauli- Agrees with Marv mostly, Yamato claims that he was parroting marv. Will receive a more in depth analysis of his filter. Acrofales- Defends Marv on multiple occasions. Had him solid town prior to his flip (which he made sure to broadcast just before the night cycle). Dienosore- Got you.I fucking got you. And this ladies and gentlemen is why I do this kind of analysis and why I will be the most invaluable townie. "I've already mentioned that I trust you. If you sincerely believe that he isn't scum" That really should be all you need, but look closer, every single one of his posts have something to do with Marv, and how Marv is taking heat, and how he doesn't think that's right. Perfect cover, all he has to do is lurk around, drop a few "I <3 Marv" bombs and hope Alderan didn't catch you. Well I did. And Dienosore is scum. Snarfs- Points out Dieno buddying Marv (in the softest most wishy washiest of ways) while simultaneously buddying Marv. iamperfection- Claims Marv is not acting scummy based on Meta. yamato77- Seems steady in his belief that Marv was town through out the thread. Null Alderan- I've been inactive as fuck, but for full disclosure the only thing I said about Marv was that many believed he was a solid town. In my mind I had that feeling, just not in the business of broadcasting who I think is town/blue. Zarepath- Points out those that kept shoving Marv into the spotlight, specifically Oatmaster. Keirathi- Minor chatter between the two but nothing noteworthy. Thrawn2112- Not particularly strong of a stance either way, but does point out inconsistencies in Oatmaster's suspicions, namely the drastic switch towards the middle of the day. Adam4167- Only references Marv in the sense that Dienosore was buddying him so hard. He also points out a couple of the concepts I brought up here, but I didn't catch them the first time. The idea that scum is not going to come out hard against town day 1. cDgCorazon Doesn't mention a lot of his feelings about Marv personally but does have an interesting interaction with Yamato in which he assumes that because Yamato thought he was scummy he must also think Marv was scummy. Sylencia- Does not mention Marv until he is dead. Suspicious Oatmaster- Early on is suspicious of Marv; switches directions. Interestingly targets Acrofales for defending Marv. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18001 Posts
On February 26 2013 13:13 thrawn2112 wrote: imo adam wasn't really putting himself in the spotlight the way yamato was besides, this line of reasoning is pretty weak. anything else to say about adam? Out of everything that has been asked from you, your contribution is to butt into an ongoing discussion that has nothing much to do with you, to throw in a soft defense of adam here? How about you explain your scumreads instead? | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
I think that is why Oatmaster is so intriguing as well. Early pressure, then a complete 180 that was caught by multiple people. Seems a little off. Anyway I'm done talking to myself. Let me read through what's gone on in the last couple of pages and start responding to people directly. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On February 26 2013 13:36 Acrofales wrote: Out of everything that has been asked from you, your contribution is to butt into an ongoing discussion that has nothing much to do with you, to throw in a soft defense of adam here? How about you explain your scumreads instead? I'm not soft defending adam. Kei is making a real weak case | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
Here's the summation of his thoughts on his main scumread, thrawn: On February 26 2013 11:01 Keirathi wrote: No solid reads yet. I'm interested in thrawn, obviously. The town thrawn I know is logical and takes his time to look at all sides of the situation, and I just haven't seen that from him this game. He's just been flying by the seat of his pants (iamp scum, no town, no scum again! Hapa should be a dueler tomorrow!) with little to no reasoning for his "reads". His explanations for why thrawn's scum are almost entirely meta based. He did ask thrawn this question: On February 26 2013 02:47 Keirathi wrote: So thrawn, why exactly do you want Hapa to duel? Do you think he is scum, or town? What is your ideal scenario for a duel? A strong townie vs a scum suspect? Or two scum suspects against each other? That series of questions is so bland/boring and non confrontational that I have a hard time imagining that there's any real purpose behind it. Here's what he said about adam: On February 26 2013 12:02 Keirathi wrote: Oh yea, I forgot about this: Adam Adam came out all guns blazing with his "I'll duel someone when I feel its appropriate!" stance. But this passage of quotes is interesting, because he dropped his minor scumread on Cora because Cora's arguments made Adam look town. He doesn't care that Cora's argument is anti-town itself (Cora was interested in lynching yam or Adam because they were "disruptive" or whatever, not because he necessarily thought they were scum), only that he can use Cora's response to identify himself as town. That suggests to me that the whole bravado thing at the start of the game could be an act, because Adam was already thinking of how he could get town cred from his stance even before Cora pointed out his problems with it. At best it's a very tenuous association to make. There are many more things worthy of suspicion so far and kei focusing on that is strange. So all of Kei's suspicions in the game total to "thrawn doesn't look like town thrawn" and the weird point about adam. He's not scumhunting i.e. he's scum | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 26 2013 13:13 cDgCorazon wrote: The interesting thing is when we do get to that situation where no-lynch is imminent, I think we will start to see some agendas pushed forward. Then we can figure out if they are scum pushed or town pushed. Perhaps that upside of your idea might cover all of the downsides... I'd be careful with this line of thinking. Scum wants a no lynch, so if last second agendas are forming it's not going to be from them, it's going to be from town, and the scum are just going to hide in with the rest of us. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18001 Posts
On February 26 2013 13:40 thrawn2112 wrote: I'm not soft defending adam. Kei is making a real weak case And your duty this game is to defend your null/scum reads from weak cases? Or is it that you think Keir is scum? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18001 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
I think that is why Oatmaster is so intriguing as well. Early pressure, then a complete 180 that was caught by multiple people. Seems a little off. Where is there a 180 Alderan? I said that there was no point pushing a marv lynch at that point BECAUSE IT WASNT GONNA HAPPEN. Is that a 180? What is the difference between Acro and Dieno's defending and what not? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18001 Posts
Same question about Iamp: why the change of heart? | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
On February 26 2013 12:57 Oatsmaster wrote: Ok so your plan is that we pick the one, and that person picks another to duel? It just screams manipulation to me, like you are giving scum a way out of getting lynched, assuming the one we pick is scum. Currently I dont have another plan, but I just don't think this is a good idea. This is really bad town analysis. Why would it be in manipulation the town has all the control. Let's say we majority vote for who should be the first dueler. If the person is town, then he should be allowed to pick someone he thinks is scummy. Nothing to see here, actually helps out our odds in case some one slips up. Now let's say he's scum. He's gonna pick someone who might seem scummy to the town, but guess what, we just voted him with a majority vote as our first dueler, and because of that he already has a significant amount of votes against him. Scum gonna jump ship and get out of the lynch? Opens them up to a lot of criticism, especially if we can figure out the pattern. I think this way gives us the most information and the highest chance of lynching scum. It's scary (or should I say scummy) that you don't see that. | ||
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Alderan
United States463 Posts
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
Why even mention the other 13 players if you arent gonna draw any conclusions? | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
Acro my read on you right now is not as strong as it was, but I still think you are being overly wordy without having real motivation behind your words. Balance-wise when I first looked at the player list I sorta auto-assumed that one of marv/hapa/yourself/maybe kei has to be scum. So when marv died... that's where the statement about "either hapa or acro" cam from. As for Iamp... nothing really changed per se.. I woke up, read his filter and decided I don't like him as scum | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On February 26 2013 13:52 Alderan wrote: Now let's say he's scum. He's gonna pick someone who might seem scummy to the town, but guess what, we just voted him with a majority vote as our first dueler, and because of that he already has a significant amount of votes against him. Scum gonna jump ship and get out of the lynch? Opens them up to a lot of criticism, especially if we can figure out the pattern. I think this way gives us the most information and the highest chance of lynching scum. It's scary (or should I say scummy) that you don't see that. Wait what in the actual fuck are you saying? If I was scum, I would push lynchbait, then if I am called to duel, call out that lynchbait and try my hardest to lynch him. There is no benefit for scum to choose another scum, and at this point of time, there are enough scummy looking people that I dont think its difficult for a reasonably active scum player to push the lynch onto a townie. So we get basically no information. HOWEVER, later in the game, with less people, this might actually be a good idea. Why? Because by then, the scum would probably have to conjure up some weird reason if he is skating along, and BAM HE IS DEAD. Look I dont know what is a good plan to take advantage of this, but I dont really think that letting the scummiest player in the thread to choose his lynch target is a good idea. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
You have a scumread on me, but I say the only way I'm calling a duel is if I get to duel a scumread. So if you want to lynch me you have to allow me to potentially lynch someone I wish... not somebody I have a town or even null read on. Good luck enforcing anything other than that... it's not going to happen. so knowing how I feel about it, are you willing to let me be a duelist and have some say in who I duel? If I'm not your top scumread then apply that question to that person as well. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18001 Posts
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