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Newbie Mini Mafia XXXVII

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 07 2013 13:42 GMT
#142
I guess I can't refuse an invitation
/in.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 07 2013 14:32 GMT
#146
Indeed, a lot of familiar names in here :D
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 10 2013 06:14 GMT
#277
RNG lynch is pretty horrible, 77% chance you hit a non-scum and you get 0 info out of it whatsoever because there would be little reason to accuse people of anything. Blank day, waste of time and only really reduces town chance of winning
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 10 2013 07:18 GMT
#299
Moc: Newbie 33 featured one too didn't it? (Whichever one my first game was)
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 10 2013 07:23 GMT
#306
Also, removing the deduction part of a social deduction game makes for a not very fun game methinks :\ Even if the chances of finding the scum D1 are low, it's still there and it's a hell of a lot more fun than assigning numbers to people and culling one off at random.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 11 2013 00:38 GMT
#337
I sitll think RNG sucks and that no lynch / normal voting is superior to RNG
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 11 2013 09:41 GMT
#409
On February 11 2013 14:01 warbaby wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 11 2013 13:58 cDgCorazon wrote:
@WB: Do you mean VT or some other blue role? If it makes you feel better, you have a 100% telling-the-truth rate when it comes to claiming roles.


I won't claim my actual role right now (just that my alignment is not mafia rofl), but if we get to a point later (d2+) where others are considering claiming, I will not hesitate this time.


I got up to here on the bus, and spent a bit of time working out the reasoning behind this blue claim so early on:

If he's scum, a way to extend his life through the chance he is telling the truth. Problem is the plan is spoiled when he doesn't die on night 1 - since he would be a prime candidate for a kill.

If he's actually blue, dumb move unless he plans to Vig shot someone on night 1 and hoping for a 1:1 trade? Alternatively if he's a vet aiming to prolong the life of the town - but even then that's a questionable move.

Being the SK with bulletproof wouldn't help too much since he will still end up suffering the same fate as the Vig of being shot over 2 nights. Helps town more than scum.

VT taking a bullet for the team is also a possibility here, but I don't understand why such a seed needs to be planted to early on.

Basically, I'm leaning towards either scum or vig on warbaby.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 11 2013 14:23 GMT
#429
On February 11 2013 20:57 warbaby wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 11 2013 18:41 Sylencia wrote:
If he's actually blue, dumb move unless he plans to Vig shot someone on night 1 and hoping for a 1:1 trade? Alternatively if he's a vet aiming to prolong the life of the town - but even then that's a questionable move.

Being the SK with bulletproof wouldn't help too much since he will still end up suffering the same fate as the Vig of being shot over 2 nights. Helps town more than scum.

VT taking a bullet for the team is also a possibility here, but I don't understand why such a seed needs to be planted to early on.

Basically, I'm leaning towards either scum or vig on warbaby.


Are you fucking dense? Scum already knows who the towns are. All I'm saying is I'm town. They (the scum) already know that.

I could give away more information (like a blue role) later on, but I haven't done that yet. Why are you saying I'm claiming a blue role when I've done nothing of the sort?

You must be fucking dense.


Of course scum knows who is town and who is not - they don't know who is blue and who is not though. Your wording in the original statement 'I won't claim my actual role right now' telegraphs you have something to actually claim.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 11 2013 23:55 GMT
#548
Currently at work - I can answer questions and make shallow comments about posts but I can't go too indepth with analysis at the moment (though this part has never really been a strong point of mine in these games)

1) I made my posts last night and the disappearance was me going to bed.
2) Everyone who has been posting about voting lurkers and outright saying it's a pressure vote is completely nullifying the effect of the pressure vote. The post above from Mandalor further shows how useless it is now - since it's stated that votes change so often anyways. Unless you're voting seriously for a lurker and plan to follow through with it, it's much better not to vote at all.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 12 2013 04:03 GMT
#593
On February 12 2013 12:23 warbaby wrote:
Someone with 2 or 3 crappy posts is scummier to me than the current active posters.


You can't seriously say that considering the posts I made were targetting you. You don't have an objective view when it comes to things regarding you and your attitude towards anyone who accuses you of anything is the worst.

I'm not going to argue against the quantity of posts or my lack of discussion so far but your attitude is pissing me off.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 12 2013 04:20 GMT
#599
My only posts have really been against warbaby - thought it was assumed <.<
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 12 2013 11:53 GMT
#640
On February 12 2013 20:30 zarepath wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 20:09 glurio wrote:
Well i agree that my case on sn0 is weak at best. Honestly, i made it because i promised to make one. After reading the filter i didn't find anything too scummy, except his endless posting about lurkers. So yeah, WoS had it right.
Also the reason why i didn't vote or FoS sn0.


Not sure if massive scum slip or . . .


Don't think so - pretty sure it was in reference to

On February 12 2013 07:12 glurio wrote:
after that expect my case on sn0.


@Geript: I posted regarding Warbaby's post because it stood out so much due to the wording he chose to use. Would you ever use 'I won't claim my actual role right now' when referring to 'I won't claim VT right now'? It's extremely awkward and suggested so much more than that. As you already mentioned, it's really dumb to be claiming here on day 1 if he was, but I'm just considering the possibility he's using this as future leverage when it comes down to claiming, a fake claim wouldn't be too unusual by saying he already hinted it then.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 12 2013 14:22 GMT
#647
On February 12 2013 22:05 Mandalor wrote:
And more importantly: Why would he think about that? And even more mindboggling: Why would he post that?
To me this looks like scum trying to figure out the blues. Then again, would Sylencia really be that stupid? idk.


I posted it when I did because of the conclusion I came up with. I said I was leaning towards scum/vig read - if I was leaning towards blue role of course that would be the most idiotic thing to post up the analysis.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 12 2013 23:02 GMT
#751
On February 13 2013 07:29 warbaby wrote:
I explained why I won't role claim, but why I'm happy to alignment claim.


I'm back again, and I don't understand how alignment claims ever help. Seeing as how it'd either be town claiming town, or scum/3rd party claiming town. That gets us nowhere.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 12 2013 23:36 GMT
#781
Now I'm seeing two reasons why I'm being voted here:
- The fact I'm quiet is apparently like the way I played when I was scum (wrong when you compare it to my other games, I was a bit more active during that game but still rather quiet in comparison to the number of players )
- The fact I'm quiet is uncharacteristic (also wrong, look at NMM32/33)

The points are kind of contradictory though...
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 13 2013 00:21 GMT
#818
On February 13 2013 08:52 Mocsta wrote:
Sylencia
I just checked your filter

and noticed your recent posts are defensive (perhaps due to pressure you)

What I need from you to determine alignment is not a defense; but to see you scum hunt.

I could not find a vote in your filter.Please indicate who your top scum read, and dot point why.


I've only checked a few filters unfortunately (bad play by me) but from those I've checked I'm going to still stick with my suspicion on Warbaby. I've tunneled on him a little bit too much though...

- Firstly, I didn't read what happened in NMM36 - so I don't know what happened there though you guys seem to have pretty much filled me in on it anyways.
- I did my analysis on him, and it feels like he's been aggressively trying to get me killed following it. There are other reasons he has given (lurker) but as Corazon has mentioned, there are a bunch of lurkers in this game and it is like I'm the target because I'm the one in that bunch who has targetted him.
- Rather than vote for a player he considers to be scummy, he decides to simply follow a LAL policy - so either he's not willing to vote for the people he finds suspicious or he's not scum hunting but policy killing, and not scum hunting is exactly what he is accusing me of too.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 13 2013 00:35 GMT
#823
On February 13 2013 09:23 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 13 2013 09:21 Sylencia wrote:
On February 13 2013 08:52 Mocsta wrote:
Sylencia
I just checked your filter

and noticed your recent posts are defensive (perhaps due to pressure you)

What I need from you to determine alignment is not a defense; but to see you scum hunt.

I could not find a vote in your filter.Please indicate who your top scum read, and dot point why.


I've only checked a few filters unfortunately (bad play by me) but from those I've checked I'm going to still stick with my suspicion on Warbaby. I've tunneled on him a little bit too much though...

- Firstly, I didn't read what happened in NMM36 - so I don't know what happened there though you guys seem to have pretty much filled me in on it anyways.
- I did my analysis on him, and it feels like he's been aggressively trying to get me killed following it. There are other reasons he has given (lurker) but as Corazon has mentioned, there are a bunch of lurkers in this game and it is like I'm the target because I'm the one in that bunch who has targetted him.
- Rather than vote for a player he considers to be scummy, he decides to simply follow a LAL policy - so either he's not willing to vote for the people he finds suspicious or he's not scum hunting but policy killing, and not scum hunting is exactly what he is accusing me of too.

Suspicion is not enough with 30 minutes to go. Wishy-washy up until the end is not going to earn you any friends with your neck on the line.


No it will not, but as much as I would want to vote him - I might end up having to vote for my survival, since warbaby will not be gathering any votes.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 13 2013 00:50 GMT
#846
##Vote: Warbaby
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 13 2013 00:54 GMT
#853
On February 13 2013 09:52 Sn0_Man wrote:
JK syl's vote is less out of the blue than I thought.


.. What lol, I gave my reasons before and I'm voting for him to consolidate my thoughts on him. I will have to change my vote to glurio if required to stay alive though.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 13 2013 22:54 GMT
#971
Yeah, so to those who were wondering why I was mentioning possibly having to vote for glurio if required:

- Yes, the objective is for town is for a town win and not survival, but I am 100% sure of what I am and I am not about glurio.
- At the time I was typing my head was on the chopping block, but after I posted it someone had already moved off of me, so it looked like I was saying it for no reason.

Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 14 2013 00:07 GMT
#979
On February 13 2013 09:44 Sn0_Man wrote:
You aren't helping yourself glurio.

I think I may be willing to vote Sylencia, but my read on him is Blue or Scum, not green. I read somewhere that people who seem withdrawn and preoccupied with blue roles (like Syl was when we talked about WB's pseudo-blue claim) are often blue themselves. (Somewhere is in Ver's analysis of XXX). I really didn't want to lynch Syl because he might flip blue but his contributions haven't really been in line with what I would hope a town member would try to bring to the table.

So basically, I'm willing to consolidate on Syl but I want you guys to understand the risk that he flips blue is decently high IMO.


Also, in regards to this I'm going to say that I am not blue.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 14 2013 00:51 GMT
#988
ObviousOne:

It was at the point where I had 2 votes (and somehow 2 votes was enough to have me up for lynching) where I was mentioning having to survival vote. I already explained it before why I felt that survival voting was possibly necessary for me.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 14 2013 01:03 GMT
#999
On February 14 2013 09:56 ObviousOne wrote:
Okay, I failed at reading Dandel's filter. It was up a page from where I was looking:
Show nested quote +
On February 13 2013 09:29 Dandel Ion wrote:
[image loading] Count Vote:

glurio (3): Sevryn, Mocsta, cDgCorazon
Sylencia (2): warbaby, Mandalor
WaveofShadow (1): geript
Macheji (1): WaveofShadow
Sevryn (1): Sn0_Man
Mandalor (1): zarepath

Not Voting (4): 9-BiT, Macheji, glurio, Sylencia


Currently, glurio is set to be lynched!
~half an hour remaining until deadline.
Remember you have to vote!


I admit you are correct on the point of having 2 votes.


There were 3 vote counts where I had 2 votes, 2 of them where I was set to be lynched. You are correct in that the goal of town is to scum hunt and not survival, but you don't really have a choice if it's either you or someone else who is going to die. I know I'm town, I don't know what he is, in this case it isn't about scum hunting for me but town number preservation. Of course there are times when you can take a bullet to prove people voting for you are suspicious but with 2-3 votes on the lynch target it doesn't give much information whatsoever.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 14 2013 01:05 GMT
#1003
I was roleblocked last night.

Unfortunate for WoS and geript, but I believe it's more likely to be an SK over Vig here, since I mentioned Vig shooting N1 and was told it was 'too risky' for them to do it by Warbaby.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 14 2013 01:15 GMT
#1007
Mocsta: Trying to find the post now, might not have been Warbaby since I can't find it in his filter. I'll post it whenI find it.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 14 2013 01:24 GMT
#1011
Ok if anyone can tell me I'm not crazy:

Someone made a post about Vig shooting on night 1 and saying they were an aggressive poker player and even that was too much of a gamble for them.

If someone could help with finding this post I would be grateful.

Also for point 3 Mocsta:
- Town JK: Since I'm being seen as scum, might've chosen me to block a shot but why would the scum team ever choose me to shoot in that spot, since everyone is already looking at me. Unless they thought I was a framer, this seems unlikely.
- Scum RB: Sn0 was saying he suspected me as being either blue or scum. Knowing I'm not scum, they could possibly see that as being the best shot at hitting a blue and running iwth it.

That's how I see the RB.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 14 2013 03:24 GMT
#1072
##Vote ObviousOne

I don't think we can risk him being scum and blindsiding us by saying he's SK and helping us by targetting scum.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 15 2013 00:05 GMT
#1176
On February 15 2013 06:09 warbaby wrote:

Note that there is only a mafia roleblocker. If sylencia is not lying, there will still be a mafia roleblocker on N2 (unless we lynch the mafia roleblocker today).


Scum slip ? ?
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 15 2013 00:16 GMT
#1179
How is it possible to say for certain that there's only a mafia roleblocker, when we don't know if it was a JK or a RB?
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 16 2013 04:54 GMT
#1354
Sorry guys, wasn't around last night.

Corazon: I'm still sure that Warbaby is scum, potential slip during day 2, one of the weirdest statements I've read during day 1, and he's now also claimed I've fake roleblock claimed. Remember when you were scum and you managed to slip under the radar for another 3 days while we flailed around until the other scum kind of screwed up your plans? This is something I don't want to let happen again.

Sevryn: It's not like I'm even talking about my level of scumhunting wihtout backup - you can check my filters for the other 3 games I've been in. How many cases have I truly brought up? Not too many. You guys all mention how I talk about the potential blue claim for quite a while on Day 1 - I didn't even say it's likely he's blue unless it's a Vig.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 16 2013 06:03 GMT
#1364
On February 16 2013 13:59 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2013 13:54 Sylencia wrote:
Sorry guys, wasn't around last night.

Corazon: I'm still sure that Warbaby is scum, potential slip during day 2, one of the weirdest statements I've read during day 1, and he's now also claimed I've fake roleblock claimed. Remember when you were scum and you managed to slip under the radar for another 3 days while we flailed around until the other scum kind of screwed up your plans? This is something I don't want to let happen again.

Sevryn: It's not like I'm even talking about my level of scumhunting wihtout backup - you can check my filters for the other 3 games I've been in. How many cases have I truly brought up? Not too many. You guys all mention how I talk about the potential blue claim for quite a while on Day 1 - I didn't even say it's likely he's blue unless it's a Vig.

talking about it at all isnt really something thats good for down it can only help scum on Day 1


How is reasoning someone is potentially scum good for scum?

On February 16 2013 14:16 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2013 14:11 cDgCorazon wrote:
On February 16 2013 14:10 Sevryn wrote:
On February 16 2013 14:00 warbaby wrote:
Sevryn, I've been working on the assumption that there are 3 scum. Let's assume you're right that sylencia and Mandalor are scum. Who do you think the 3rd scum could be?

Do you think any of the active players have been attacking you harder than sylencia and Mandlor, because they know you're the one remaining town lurker?

Does anyone think we can extend this hypothetical to scenarios where sevryn and sylencia are scum? Or sevryn and mandalor?

My point is that if two lurkers are scum, then one active player is scum, and perhaps we can spot a difference between the way active players have been treating the different lurkers.

Nobody thats still alive.


So there's 2 scum?

ahh no that was too the second question. if we assume that there are three scum I would probably say you cora are at the top of my list which would go
1. cora
2. warbaby
3.mocsta/sno
4.zera
5.TS who is confirmed town?
that actually makes me wonder is there a scenario where TS isnt confirmed townie?


If OO was scum, possibly could make a case where TS isn't confirmed, but it'd be the greatest shot in the dark if TS guessed OO did something, seeing as how he was SK and so scum have no info as to who that is.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 17 2013 01:26 GMT
#1396
Who was roleblocked - seeing as it's confirmed that it's scum RB now since they didn't protect TU (unless they're playing to try make me a liar)
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 17 2013 01:27 GMT
#1397
Never mind - I was roleblocked again.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 17 2013 01:31 GMT
#1399
I checked the forums on my phone, which doesn't have me logged in - I hopped on the computer and typed it out before even noticing the new PM.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 17 2013 01:38 GMT
#1402
Right now, I don't even think they're roleblocking to block a blue - they're roleblocking me to make it seem like I'm fake claiming. Pretty sure I haven't left any unintentional breadcrumbs, the only time I've mentioned anything about my role is back at the end of Night 1, where I said "I'm not blue".
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 17 2013 01:56 GMT
#1405
DIdn't I already answer the question?

On February 16 2013 13:54 Sylencia wrote:
Corazon: I'm still sure that Warbaby is scum, potential slip during day 2, one of the weirdest statements I've read during day 1, and he's now also claimed I've fake roleblock claimed. Remember when you were scum and you managed to slip under the radar for another 3 days while we flailed around until the other scum kind of screwed up your plans? This is something I don't want to let happen again.

Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 17 2013 01:59 GMT
#1406
On February 17 2013 10:47 Mocsta wrote:
In the scum game I played; we got the RB to block me.. to get town cred... i can see this happening here.


Yeah, I can understand it happening once - I was considering it myself when I was scum. But why twice? And as I just said, this is the exact reaction that the scum want from me having to claim RB twice.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 17 2013 06:41 GMT
#1433
On February 17 2013 13:19 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2013 11:31 cDgCorazon wrote:
Because a set-up with 8 town and 5 non-town would be really imbalanced, and a set-up with 10 town and 3 non-town would also be ridiculously imbalanced.

On phone:
This is silly poo corazon.

There have been several 13 player newbie games, each with 3 scum and never SK.

You just said 10 town, 3 non-town is unbalanced... y?


Because 10 town, 2 mafia and 1 SK makes it a lot harder for the mafia to win since SK can randomly kill a mafia member and suddenly the number is cut in half, and the hope that mafia will win drops to a super low chance. The introduction of the SK in this game will be balanced by having either a higher number of blues and/or stronger mafia roles.

On February 17 2013 13:19 Mocsta wrote:
Why is this a contribution of merit compared to posts from Mandalor or Sevryn?


Because unlike Sevryn who firstly gets asked thoughts on specific players - in which he then responds, I don't piggyback on the opportunity to claim X lurker is scum. Does this mean Sevryn is scum? Possibly. Mandalor hasn't been around since the start of Day 2. Nothing is really known about him other than the fact he's pretty much full AFK at this point in time.

As for my case on Warbaby, if you think it's a weak case then so be it - I see there's enough for me to vote for him from what I've read.

Regarding my double roleblock - why would I double roleblock over roleblocking a person and then myself if I was scum? 1) It confirms there's actually a roleblocker in the game, 2) it 'confirms' me as town a hell of a lot more than double roleblock ever would. Given the fact you've all been suspicious of me for a while, would I really bring even more attention to myself as scum? No, but these points don't really have much weight behind them since you don't know my role.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 17 2013 22:58 GMT
#1454
On February 18 2013 05:12 warbaby wrote:
@Sylencia, sevryn, mandalor

Who do you intend to vote for? Since you are all lurkers, I think it would be hypocritical of you to vote for another lurker. Further, it seems unlikely all 3 of you are scum, meaning an "active" player is scum.

Why don't you make a case against one of the "active" players: Mocsta, Corazon, Zarepath, or myself. If you put effort into making such a case, it would help a great deal to prove that you're at least trying to help town.


I'm more personally looking at no lynch today because we haven't heard from Sn0, Zare or Mandalor. What is to say they aren't cruising to victory by not having to post today and letting town hang themselves? In any case, I also have a feeling that at least one of the players has something to say about last night still.

##Vote: No Lynch.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 07:39 GMT
#1471
When we should no lynch properly?

It is clearly the right time to do it now. Call me scum for talking about setup speculation here but so far what we have is

1 Serial Killer
1 Mafia Roleblocker (only confirmed by me, take it as you wish)
2 Mafia / Mafia Roles
1 Tracker
4 Town
4 Town / Blue

Again, take this as you wish but I have already claimed I'm not blue. That puts it to 5 Vanilla and 3 Unknown. Due to what we have seen from the setup: Nosy Neighbour doesn't affect much, it's still essentially just a green role. No one else has claimed being Roleblocked. That pretty much rules out there being a Jailkeeper. A Vigilante would've killed me by now. That leaves there to be either a Watcher or a Veteran that are likely candidates to be the other blue role. If you no lynch with a Watcher in town, and assuming they were watching Test last night because it's the obvious thing to do, they can very well watch another night on a potential target, reveal who they saw the previous night during the final hour of tonight, and if they remain alive - they can potentially reveal another. With a veteran, we stay in the same 5:3 situation but with another confirmed town member, which still leaves us in pretty much the same situation as we are in now, but with a confirmed town giving out a vote for another day.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 13:30 GMT
#1480
On February 18 2013 21:13 zarepath wrote:
I like how Sylencia's big "I'm contributing!" post is all theory and setup speculation.

Still filter diving, but I'm inclined to go for Mandalor right now. Although he did say he was going to be busy this whole time.

Not that I'm one to talk... As Cora pointed out, Sundays are my busiest days. Sorry for not mentioning that myself.

I should be back for the day. Catching up, filter reading, etc.

I like the discussion so far.



Voting Mandalor is pointless, he's afk and his filter says less than what anyone else has, the chance you mislynch from a vote from Mandalor is a lot higher than anyone else.

--

On February 13 2013 14:23 Sevryn wrote:
So I'm back from work and wow has a lot happened I dont understand why glurio played like he did. That is why I tunneled him because his case was absolutely terrible. We also needed another topic besides warbaby so I pushed glurio as a good alternate topic. Glurio admitted his case was terrible which just doesnt make sense why would town make a terrible case without breadcrumbs like I said earlier its just distracting and doesnt help town. as this lynch proved.

The only reason you think im scum is because you think a lurker is scum and while I know I havn't been very active which I will be fixing over the next days I have to ask. Why just me and glurio? your just looking at whats blaring in your face and not the whole picture. I had the confidence to share my read and kill glurios case why would scum do that? You talk about when during the day I posted my case like people normally post cases early day one when there is nothing to read which is kind of irrelavant because I posted my case after I read and reread his case.

I'm going to bed now but Will be up tomorrow and will be ready to provide my opinions and takes on yesterdays last minute activity and the night that fight.


1) Makes a point about how we're looking at warbaby too much, but then proceeds to tunnelling glurio and brushes it off like he was the victim of bad play.
2) Says he'd be more active, but reaches a level slightly above mine in terms of activity. The lack of hard scum hunting hasn't required him to speak up since Night 1.


On February 14 2013 03:06 Sevryn wrote:
Is 9bit being replaced?


As important as it is to know, asking if the 2nd afk player is going to be replaced could be a sign of potential night kill targets. This is pretty weak though.

On February 14 2013 11:21 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2013 11:17 TestSubject893 wrote:
I was getting ready to write up a post about my thoughts on everyone so far, but when I got the results of the night actions I realized that that post would probably be overshadowed when I posted this, so I scrapped it for now.




I am the Tracker. As we know from the rules, the mafia chooses who will carry out each kill. From this we can conclude that the mafia will choose the player they percieve to be least suspicious on their team to carry out the kill. In an attempt to catch a potential least suspicous scum player, last night I tracked ObviousOne. The results were that he visisted WaveofShadow.

This means that one of the following is true:
(A) ObviousOne is a Vigilante, Jailkeeper or Watcher who targeted WaveofShadow.
(B) The framer chose to frame ObviousOne for the WaveofShadow kill.
(C) ObviousOne is the Nosy Neighbour and the RNG hit the 2/11 chance that he'd visit someone who was killed.
(D) ObviousOne is scum or serial killer and killed WaveofShadow.

A is unlikely for the following reasons. ObviousOne said himself that a Vigilante should have checked in ahead of time, making it unlikely that that is his role + Show Spoiler +
On February 14 2013 10:23 ObviousOne wrote:
Still have some time for a possible Vig to check in. I'm surprised there wasn't a claim given there was an hour window during which night actions were being put through, but that might just mean they're not able to respond yet. Going to have to assume SK if there isn't a claim in the next 24 hours.
. We know that he is not the Jailkeeper, because the Jailkeeper visisted Sylencia tonight. And its unlikely that he is a Watcher, not only because we already have a Tracker, and therefore it is less likely that we have a Watcher, but also because if he watched WaveofShadow he would have said something about who visited the person who was killed.

B is unlikely becuase there is little reason for the mafia to think that ObviousOne will get tracked.

C is unlikely mathematically. (Even if there is a 10% chance that OO is the Nosy Neighbour, a very high estimate, that means that there is a less than 2% likelihood of this occuring.)

From this I conclude that ObviousOne is the serial killer or scum and killed WaveofShadow.

##Vote: ObviousOne

your assuming that there isnt a scum RB and a town JK


Either he's subtly suggesting he got roleblocked here, or the point is completely irrelevant to the argument. I can understand if he was saying "You're assuming there isn't RB instead of JK" but where does this point about scum RB and JK come from, especially reading TU's post - it comes out of nowhere. This again, doesn't really reveal anything about his alignment, but it's an odd statement.

On February 16 2013 13:34 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2013 08:55 Sylencia wrote:
Currently at work - I can answer questions and make shallow comments about posts but I can't go too indepth with analysis at the moment (though this part has never really been a strong point of mine in these games)


Lowering expectations of how good they will be at scumhunting
and then the 5 posts on D1 about blue claims and the like which really only helps scum on D1
Show nested quote +
On February 13 2013 09:21 Sylencia wrote:
On February 13 2013 08:52 Mocsta wrote:
Sylencia
I just checked your filter

and noticed your recent posts are defensive (perhaps due to pressure you)

What I need from you to determine alignment is not a defense; but to see you scum hunt.

I could not find a vote in your filter.Please indicate who your top scum read, and dot point why.


I've only checked a few filters unfortunately (bad play by me) but from those I've checked I'm going to still stick with my suspicion on Warbaby. I've tunneled on him a little bit too much though...




another post admitting to being a bad player and altogether undermining thier own stance on things which is a great tactic if later your going to have to go back on your reads. real easy to go "I told you guys I was bad at scum hunting"
looking through the whole filter I just see a lot of answering direct questions and no real cases.


On February 14 2013 03:04 Sevryn wrote:
Sylencia - null


I can be made to look fairly scummy from those 2 points alone (this then heightens to the point where I'm now his top read) - but if he's made a point about it on the 16th, what changed between 14th and then?

On February 16 2013 13:59 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2013 13:54 Sylencia wrote:
Sorry guys, wasn't around last night.

Corazon: I'm still sure that Warbaby is scum, potential slip during day 2, one of the weirdest statements I've read during day 1, and he's now also claimed I've fake roleblock claimed. Remember when you were scum and you managed to slip under the radar for another 3 days while we flailed around until the other scum kind of screwed up your plans? This is something I don't want to let happen again.

Sevryn: It's not like I'm even talking about my level of scumhunting wihtout backup - you can check my filters for the other 3 games I've been in. How many cases have I truly brought up? Not too many. You guys all mention how I talk about the potential blue claim for quite a while on Day 1 - I didn't even say it's likely he's blue unless it's a Vig.

talking about it at all isnt really something thats good for down it can only help scum on Day 1


Ignores the point I continuously make - I didn't talk about the potential claim because I thought he was blue, I did it because there was a higher chance he was scum.

On February 17 2013 14:27 Sevryn wrote:
I was asked why I am less scummy than the "other" two lurkers/
how about your reads? who do you think the scum team is? you think its all lurkers?


On February 17 2013 14:48 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2013 14:30 cDgCorazon wrote:
Once again...

On February 16 2013 15:03 cDgCorazon wrote:
@Sevryn: Can you bring anything new to the table in the argument against me? If so, I'd love to hear it.


If you think I'm scum, make the case. Find points that make me look scummy that haven't been talked about already. Contribute to the scum hunt.

I will throw that right back at you you never give examples you say that I am full of broken promises. like what?
show me why im scummy dont just say YOUR SO SCUMMY PROVE YOUR NOT.
im going to try to get who I think is most likely scum lynched today what you do is your own choice but I would try to find scum by making a really case.
but as to scum hunting let me ask you a question.
Why do you think im more scummy than scy have you looked at his filter?


Many times he was asked why he isn't scummy, but rather than answering why he isn't scummy he either flips it (like here), or he tries to make a point that one of the other lurkers (Mandalor and I) are more scummy. Us being potentially more scummy based on his points doesn't clear him of being scum.

Last two posts involve a case against me, but then no real follow up when scrutinised about the quality of the post, and how it looked more summary-type post than scum post.

Since then, the heat has been back onto me, and Sevryn has been afk ever since.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 13:40 GMT
#1481
On February 18 2013 17:19 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2013 16:39 Sylencia wrote:
When we should no lynch properly?

It is clearly the right time to do it now. Call me scum for talking about setup speculation here but so far what we have is

1 Serial Killer
1 Mafia Roleblocker (only confirmed by me, take it as you wish)
2 Mafia / Mafia Roles
1 Tracker
4 Town
4 Town / Blue

Again, take this as you wish but I have already claimed I'm not blue. That puts it to 5 Vanilla and 3 Unknown.

That doesnt make sense.. we have had 3 VTs flip; 1 SK and 1 blue.
*IF* you flipped VT; would that not leave 4 vanilla flipped... you wrote 5 above... i dont think it was a typo as you adjusted unknown to 3.
If you going to setup speculate.. why are you inserting erroneous statements such as the above? Quite misleading if you ask me.

Show nested quote +

Due to what we have seen from the setup: Nosy Neighbour doesn't affect much, it's still essentially just a green role. No one else has claimed being Roleblocked. That pretty much rules out there being a Jailkeeper. A Vigilante would've killed me by now. That leaves there to be either a Watcher or a Veteran that are likely candidates to be the other blue role. If you no lynch with a Watcher in town, and assuming they were watching Test last night because it's the obvious thing to do, they can very well watch another night on a potential target, reveal who they saw the previous night during the final hour of tonight, and if they remain alive - they can potentially reveal another. With a veteran, we stay in the same 5:3 situation but with another confirmed town member, which still leaves us in pretty much the same situation as we are in now, but with a confirmed town giving out a vote for another day.
Blah blah blah; its all WIFOM and presents a lot of "What-ifs" and no conclusion based on what we know.


As an aside: to all
I fuckn hope somebody "watched" testsubject last night, but so far, no one has stepped up.

The problem is.. if somebody stepped up now and said they are the watcher, and wanted to "judge reactions" I would have thought its too late to automatically believe.
When TestSubject caught OO, he presented it within an hour.

If we believe the "watcher" and it leads to a mislynch, and then scum NK; we are pretty much fucked.



Setup speculation
The only reason I can think of the "watching" outcome being held is if.. multiple parties visited TestSubject....(i.e. killer + ?nosy neighbour? or whatever else) This is really grasping at straws though; and I prefer to work with what I know = scum hunt.


Bleh, you're correct on that point, somehow counted TU as tracker and town.

Also, as for my double roleblock claim, why is it that only Mocsta, Sevryn and Warbaby have commented about it (all three have chosen to say I'm lying here too), and everyone else has chosen to somewhat ignore it altogether?
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 13:49 GMT
#1484
On February 18 2013 22:42 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2013 22:40 Sylencia wrote:
Also, as for my double roleblock claim, why is it that only Mocsta, Sevryn and Warbaby have commented about it (all three have chosen to say I'm lying here too), and everyone else has chosen to somewhat ignore it altogether?

Because we are the only three commenting in general.. perhaps?


Corazon? I guess Zare is still reading up, don't know if sn0's catching up right now, and Mandalor has disappeared. Fair call I guess.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 13:52 GMT
#1485
On February 18 2013 22:48 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2013 22:30 Sylencia wrote:
<Insert case>
Firstly, Thanks for taking the time to review the filter.

I dunno how corazon will feel about this Sevryn case considering:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2013 16:59 cDgCorazon wrote:
If you don't make a read within 12 hours on someone other than Sevryn and Mandalor, you're getting my vote. WB won't be acceptable.


I will give my 2c anyways.

The one point you raised I agree with:
Sevyrn doesn't answer direct questions, he 'flips' them back
I agree, this is a scummy thing to do; but by itself is not scummy. I dont think the other behaviours you identified are scummy; rather...

I think most of the points raised are OMGUS, or taking the least possible scenario as the basis for being scum.

e.g.

"Sevryn pointed out scum RB.. because I only mentioned town JK"
If anything, he picked up on an erroneous comment from you and brought it to the fore.
i.e.the logic you were sprouting does not assume a scum RB exists...
considering you have been 'roleblocked twice' this is indeed convenient. - and something I did not pick up on till you quoted his post now...


Essentially most of my reads come from players within any player I've been banned from talking about, I'm kind of shut out of doing anything there.

In regards to what you've posted in the second statement, I didn't post that, that was TestUser? Or are you suggesting that I'm a scum roleblocker now, and that I've been jailkept twice? It would potentially hold up if TestUser didn't die last night.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 15:46 GMT
#1490
On February 18 2013 23:02 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2013 22:52 Sylencia wrote:
Essentially most of my reads come from players within any player I've been banned from talking about, I'm kind of shut out of doing anything there.

I don't see how personally.

Lets take your theory; that there is 3 scum.

Three lurkers = Mandalor, Sevryn and yourself.

Town thinks scum lies in the lurkers.
You think you are not scum.

Henceforth; at least one scum resides in the non-lurkers.

I believe the intention of corazon post, was to figure out who that "at least one" scum was.

Now... that I have to spell this out to you, is a concern....


The three voting for me are the three scum players anyways, which essentially means whatever I say to you doesn't matter. Since the beginning of today it's been very clear that you three can push a single agenda and with so many people afk it's not hard to target someone who hasn't been making strong cases or defenses all game. I do congratulate you on the move though, because it was well executed and the double roleblock was a nice touch. I can't use that information to even make a proper post to go against you because it's literally filled with information which only I know, so it holds zero weight to anyone.

Now, I would suggest we could lynch Sevryn here, and I'd be willing to do it, but because my word is not to be trusted at this point no lynch is literally the only way we can stay alive, since it's almost guaranteed that we are in MYLO (if we're not hey, one of my guesses is wrong) but that is up to the rest of the players to decide at this point in time. To those who are not scum, there's a lot more benefit in not lynching now than following the wagon. Unless you're 100% certain I'm scum, which I honestly hope you're not since that would mean I have played the most horrible game yet, the best option here is to no lynch. (At the same time, Mandalor is completely gone and unless he comes back sometime before tomorrow, the town has already lost unless he is a Temil in which he is modkilled as scum :\)
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 15:52 GMT
#1491
On February 18 2013 23:42 Sevryn wrote:

Sylencia
here are my thoughts after reading his filter
Sylencia starts off by posting the chances of hitting town with RNG lynch making it clear he is not going to scumhunt and instead getting ezpz town cred.
States the obvious with warbabys claim that we all knew. talked definitivly with "when he doesnt die on night 1" which leads me to think he had knowledge of the kill target. than he continues with more talk of warbaby with some setup speculation thrown in there. where is the scum hunting? these are just empty posts that he doesn't take anywhere.
All of his pressure on Warbaby is summaries of his play no questioning his motives with OMGUS posts which is just classic scum play.
Of course town will survival vote but it is much better to play more town oriented and not have to rely on it. because hey(scum will survival vote as well)
He automatically decides its a scum RB. how does he know the JK doesnt exist while the RB does? he also points out a frame possibility which seems kind of odd if I was RB I wouldn't think "ohh this is me being frameda obviously" first. why is he ready to speculate about things he couldn't possibly know as town?
All game he tunnels warbaby(while applying very weak pressure) with a foundation of a scum slip which is a really weak case that gets dismissed which is perfect for scum to look like they are contributing.
makes a big post about the RB person to step up right before saying he got blocked a sec afterwards. and then we are right back to the being framed thing.
so basically sylencia has no real contributions.
He has had a game of weak tunneling on warbaby with no real pressure
and the rest is setup/role speculation with no outcome or saying he has been roleblocked and framed to be scum.
You can have problems with my play but I have tried to be heard when my posts are getting ignored. you attack me because I put what I think outthere and you dont like my opinion.
with syl he is just blending in.
its probably LYLO and he isn't doing anything to help town.
We need to lynch this scum
##vote sylencia


1) Explaining how RNG is not beneficial does not give town cred, it's a completely neutral observation which anyone can and would've made.
2) Remember I was already being looked at as being suspicious. If I was scum, there's no way I'd be given the order to shoot. Jailkeeper, assuming decent deduction ability, would have a lot more options other than myself as to who to block. Knowing that I'm probably not taking the shot, there's a higher chance that they should protect the one they want not to die.

Also, how is it ever LYLO with 8 players alive? 5:3, 6:2 are the only combinations that are possible/legitimate possibilities. Are you trying to turn the MYLO situation into a LYLO situation so that people panic and decide they need to vote? Nice try.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 18 2013 21:58 GMT
#1524
On February 19 2013 01:30 cDgCorazon wrote:
God I am so fucking frustrated right now.

All I've asked you two to do was make a case ON SOMEONE WHO IS NOT LURKING. HOW FUCKING HARD IS THAT?

You two sit here and pretend like my comments don't exist, my arguments don't exist, like everything I say goes over your head and that you don't even care that I'm asking you to contribute a simple thing to the town.

I can't wait to vote you two off so we can actually get to playing mafia and stop with this bullshit.

##Unvote
##Vote: Sylencia


SEVRYN, YOU ARE NEXT


There is no next if Mandalor dies as well.

On February 19 2013 06:11 zarepath wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2013 00:46 Sylencia wrote:
The three voting for me are the three scum players anyways, which essentially means whatever I say to you doesn't matter.


This feels so scummy to me, in addition to his No-Lynch. He is terrified of targeting or going after anyone in particular, and has spent most of his energy defending himself.

##Vote: Sylencia

P.S. - To all who have raised their concerns about my activity the last few days -- sorry, I've been spending time with family today since I have the day off. I know this isn't ideal and that my final contribution looks really haphazard, but that's because I just haven't put in the time to do a more thorough read. Sorry, all.


Terrified of targetting anyone - I've already mentioned I'm happy to kill Sevryn, but you guys don't seem to get it. Especially with Mandalor getting potentially modkilled at this point in time, and with him having a very high chance of being town, you would rather not have a (potentially) final night phase where at least there's a chance the Veteran may get shot, and live? (It's to the point where you know that's the second blue role) You guys honestly just want to lose outright at this stage? Fine.
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
February 19 2013 01:04 GMT
#1543
gg guys, work completely distracted me from writing a final post !
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