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This whole SK situation is pretty awkward. Due to the lack of counter Vig claim by now, it is clear that we do have an SK. On the other hand, we can't prove that it is ObviousOne. If he were mafia, then there is NO WAY the real SK would claim.
Either way, OO is an anti-town role.
However, at this point his actions still make me think it likely that OO is the serial killer not somebody else. If that is true, then town can think about "manipulating" the SK. Because at this point, the SK wants to kill scum anyway (since killing too much town leaves him vulnerable to scum, who are more coordinated than town). So if we let the SK live on the premise that he will shoot scum, then it is good. However, a) I don't think OO knows who scum is any better than anybody else and b) given the roleblock happening, and assuming it is scum, they can roleblock the SK every night and still kill with impunity until they have lynch-control. Because the SK has veteran status (+1 night life), I'm guessing scum want to lynch him not shoot him.
So we arrive at a funny point where scum wish very much to lynch the SK rather than shoot him, yet I believe it is also in towns best interest to lynch him (because scum fairly clearly has the tools to shut down the SK, and because I'm not convinced the SK will be able/willing to hit scum anyway). As previously mentioned, I don't really see how town can "Control" the SK since our votes are so awful. I mean, if we all ask the SK to NK a different person, he can do whatever he wants to right?
Another point of interest: If you read how C9++ setups are rolled, there can be either 2 OR 3 mafia associated with a 13 player SK game. While I'm aware that this setup is obviously not C9++, I'm assuming the balance would be similar. An interesting note is that I'm guessing the power level of our blue roles is lower than that of those in C9++, which would lead me to believe that a more accurate balance would be 2 scum not 3. This is just speculation.
I will point out that if there are only 2 mafia, I expect that they can guess that there is an SK. In that situation, it might be valuable to look and see if anybody "jumped" to the serial killer conclusion (aka already knew).
Long post, but TL:DR; My vote stays.
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On February 15 2013 01:10 zarepath wrote:
If there are only two scum, SK definitely wants to lynch town tonight. I don't see how we could persuade OO to actually stay in control.
Probably right actually. As I said, even though I think scum want to lynch OO pretty bad, so do town. Although its not unreasonable to say that scum might be willing to let OO live another day for a free townie kill.
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On February 15 2013 03:20 warbaby wrote:
I'm not quite done talking about the TestSubject/ObviousOne situation. Right now I believe TS's claim, but I'm not sure about OO's SK claim. A few scenarios I don't think we can rule out (although it's very tenuous logic):
1) Both TS and OO are scum, TS is bussing OO in a very elaborate way. OO is not SK, so we still have to deal with 2 night kills after OO flips scum. This seems very unlikely, but would be a huge problem for town.
TS can't be scum. Claiming tracker D1 is suicide because he can't know if there will be a tracker counter-claim. Plus he has to bus a buddy who agrees to play along for this to work. No chance.
TS is confirmed town tracker, 100%.
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EBWOP: Claiming D2 after N1
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The 2 replacements are going to get lynched and NK'ed and we are gonna end up in much the same situation as if they were modkilled rofl. (okay we have more info hopefully).
Either way, what now becomes interesting is what happens tomorrow. It will be EITHER 5-3 OR 6-2 depending on setup. However, we can't know which. This is a fascinating situation because I think it may actually call for a no-lynch. Or at least, I don't know yet who I wish to lynch and a No-lynch is remarkably reasonable. In the 5-3 case we go down to 4-3, which is extremely risky but hopefully town should be able to locate the scum in such a situation. In the 6-2 case we go down to 5-2, which isn't even MYLO so town then has a safe mislynch. While town won't know, it doesn't seem that unreasonable.
Keep in mind that in the 3-scum case, mislynch tomorrow is GG.
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Could we get a vote count pretty please? Thx.
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Erm,
Could we get a vote count pretty please?
Thanks
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Thanks Acro 
@OO You may wish to vote for not-getting-warned purposes (future games and all that).
@Mandalor I know you have been around since this all came out. If you would like to weigh in on the ObviousOne situation or even acknowledge it that might be a good idea.
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FWIW if town has a JailKeeper who JK'ed sylencia that would produce the same RB notification.
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Warbaby keeps purposefully confusing things, like watcher vs tracker, number of scum, etc. TBH it looks really bad.
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On February 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote:
How do you know that it's purposeful?
Cuz he keeps doing it.
Your random ideas are quite similar as well (ROFL guys WoS made a DT claim...).
Both of you are gumming up the thread and making some of the more obvious things really strange.
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On February 15 2013 06:30 warbaby wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2013 06:24 warbaby wrote:
Therefore, the "Keep It Simple, Stupid" paradigm seems to strongly indicate TestSubject is in fact Watcher, and OO is in fact SK.
I've repeatedly stated that I'm happy going with the obvious, simple explanation. But we also need to consider the possibilities, and how they will play out going forward. Anyway I've said more than enough about the OO/TestSubject situation, so I'll drop it for now.
I mean, we just discussed this last page where I went through all the possibilities (more or less) and established that OO is anti-town (probably SK but could be scum) and that TS is Tracker. And you agreed with me.
Now you decide to crap up the thread with more speculation and casting doubt on the only confirmed town around, all while making sure to confuse the terms "Watcher" and "Tracker". And then announcing that you believe in "Keep it simple". Yeah...
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On February 15 2013 06:40 TestSubject893 wrote:
Again, I think sn0_man is making a good point. Warbaby is definitely looking like either scum or poorly played town.
Big reads time TS893. Here you call our WB. Cora, your lead scum read as of like 3 posts ago spent all day yesterday campaigning HARD for WB's lynch (probably harder than scum would dare bus D1 but thats WIFOM).
Who is scum and who is (bad) town?
As a confirmed townie, at least we know your reads aren't scum-biased (although that says nothing about their correctness).
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On February 15 2013 06:56 ObviousOne wrote:I would find it amusing to see a massive vote switch to warbaby. If you don't kill him I will
Amusing, yes. Happening, no.
I mean, I'd like to see WB dead too ATM, but I really don't think we as town can afford to not lynch you. Its moronic.
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On February 15 2013 07:03 TestSubject893 wrote:
Also, while I'm thinking about it, Sevryn, geript, Mandalor and Sylencia are entirely under my radar right now. I don't really have opinions on them and that's bad. Anybody have anything to say about them? Let's not beat up on the more active members just for posting more.
Geript is dead...
Syl is an interesting case since he claimed RB etc.
Sev has picked up his play since Day 1 when I had my vote on him to lynch, but I still think I could lynch him.
I'm not sure I get all this Mandalor hate but I'll re-read his (decently short) filter once it matters again.
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This game makes me want Instant Majority lynch, kinda.
Day 1 we durdle around and lynch with 3 votes in a (functionally) 11 player game. Day 2 we have I think 7 out of 10 votes on our target inside 24 hours and just kill time haha.
Oh wells.
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On February 15 2013 07:28 cDgCorazon wrote:There are also at least 5-6 votes that were thrown away. Why you guys are only focusing on my vote is beyond me.
Its pretty hard to bring a case on 5 people for the same thing when there are only 2-3 scum total.
Its a lot easier to bring a case on 1 guy for doing something unique (swapping away from primary scumread that you had tunnelled exclusively all day to ensure that town got lynched).
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On February 15 2013 07:33 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2013 07:31 Sn0_Man wrote:On February 15 2013 07:28 cDgCorazon wrote:There are also at least 5-6 votes that were thrown away. Why you guys are only focusing on my vote is beyond me. Its pretty hard to bring a case on 5 people for the same thing when there are only 2-3 scum total. Its a lot easier to bring a case on 1 guy for doing something unique (swapping away from primary scumread that you had tunnelled exclusively all day to ensure that town got lynched). So what would you have said if I had stayed on Warbaby and it was 2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1?
I find it hard to believe that that is how the votes would have stayed. Hypothetically, glurio would still have been lynched and you would be immune from this particular case.
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On February 15 2013 07:43 ObviousOne wrote:
Mocsta would be fun to kill tonight too, he was mean to me.
You are enjoying being a dead man too much haha. I'm mildly jealous.
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What I want to know is why does Sevryn get such an utter free ride from so many people (especially mocsta/Cora)? Sure people mention his name when they call our low contribution members, but when its down to who might be scum, his name never even pops up...
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EPT
