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I think that my head is getting too much into WIFOM. So I am going to take a step back and look at things that we ABSOLUTELY KNOW about the mafia.
1. They killed geript N1
2. They all voted for an ObviousOne lynch Day 2
3. They killed TestSubject, confirmed Tracker, N2
4. They RB'd Sylencia N1 and N2
What are possible extrapolations from this?
1. Geript is an interesting choice. I personally considered him to be a productive analyst, but I was fairly alone in that assessment -- most people assumed he had been vigi-shot for lurking. What are potential scum motivations for killing him? A) They don't know the blue roles, and want to avoid a save by targeting a less-obvious player; B) He read as a blue role; C) He read as a threat; D) They wanted to keep the active players in play.
I've usually seen scum target the most active analyst that isn't scummy unless there's a blue claim. Why didn't scum target Sn0, Mocsta, Cora, myself, or Warbaby? Well, Warbaby already had a good amount of suspicion; I had only contributed a fake case up to that point, really; and based on the final vote tally, perhaps scum was plenty happy with the town environment that the actives had cooked up.
We can get into WIFOM here but there really isn't anything productive that we can suggest at this point. So let's just look at geript:
Votes Warbaby
Attacks RNG and wants to move on from it
Criticizes Cora for his tone
Criticizes Sn0 for getting into an unproductive discussion on English that Sn0 admitted was unproductive
Says he likes LAL
Unvotes WB
Calls Warbaby town
Calls out Mocsta for throwing attacks everywhere and jumping on the first one that gains traction
Puts more pressure on Mocsta and votes for him
Breaks down my WoS case and then votes for WoS
Calls out Cora and Mocsta for a "my way or the highway" approach to the game
Calls out Sylencia for bad logic; asks why Cora and Mocsta DIDN'T
Pressures WoS more
Calls out Cora for tunneling and "let's lynch a loud voice" logic
Two final cases are a big one against Cora and a summary one against WoS
What else do we know about scum's N1 geript kill? They didn't know that WaveofShadow, geript's Day 1 vote, was going to die that night. Geript was uniquely on the attack on WaveofShadow; but to a certain extent, he was also uniquely on the attack on Cora and, to a lesser extent, Mocsta.
Geript was not a sheep, stuck to his guns, and called BS where he saw it. That alone may have been enough for scum to kill him, in addition to the fact that he probably wasn't going to be protected.
2. The ObviousOne lynch -- whether they knew OO was a vigilante or an SK, scum wanted him lynched either way. It's difficult to parse out the town motivations for lynching OO from the scum motivations, but let me put it this way -- scum would not want anyone to consider leaving OO alive, especially with scum knowing they can't night kill him easily. This is their best chance for killing OO.
Mocsta was the first to vote for him, and called him "Mr. SK" despite the fact he could be scum.
I suggest OO might night kill for us in exchange for his life
Sevryn calls Mocsta out for that point
Mocsta brings up pros/cons for keeping the SK alive on a leash; suggests lynch
Cora doesn't want to overcomplicate things and so wants to just lynch him
Mocsta hopes his post convinces others it's not worthwhile to keep the SK alive
Sn0 identifies the inherent problems with lynching an SK instead of a scum read, but thinks it's better in the end
WB doesn't want to negotiate with him at all
Cora doesn't see why we can't vote him off later (at the end of the day, not right now)
Sn0 brings up the possibility of leashing the SK based on his clear read of him as an SK
WB delves into all the possibilities there, worried about how we can't mislynch after lynching OO
3. Testsubject night kill. Scum absolutely had to target Testsubject here, but if they didn't have an RB, they may have done something else because of Sylencia's role-blocked claims (which would mean there's a JK, who would obviously protect Testsubject). The fact that they targeted and killed Testsubject means not only that there's not a JK, but that scum knew that there's not a JK -- which gives a lot of credence to Sylencia's RB claim. In retrospect, we as town should have realized this and not lynched him. Unfortunately there is not much else to learn from this; it is a clear and obvious scum move that implicates no one.
4. Sylencia RBs. I find it interesting that their N1 moves were a geript kill and a Sylencia RB. RBing Sylencia had the effect of making town believe that he was lying and scum trying to take credit for it. Sylencia was one of MANY targets Day 1, and one of the more obvious lurkers. Scum may have RB'd him for a few different reasons; A) Scum thought he was blue; B) Scum wanted town to believe he was a fake-claiming lurker, making him the most obvious lurker to pressure/target; C) Scum wanted to RB someone they thought would also be JK'd so that the town JK assumes there is no scum RB, and saw Sylencia as a likely JK target.
I find A and B to be the most likely, particularly B because the result would have gone nicely with Motivation B (ie, it worked, after a fashion).
The Day 2 RB on Sylencia either suggests that mafia believe that he was a blue that was stopped N1 (there were no other JK claims, no vigi-kills, and no Watcher claims), or that they wanted us to believe he was fake-claiming two days in a row and that there was no RB (because surely the scum RB would target a more blue-looking target, right?). I can see either of these motivations being the case.
But if scum wanted us to believe he was fake claiming RBs, that suggests a few things; A) Scum saw a potential mislynch here and just went for it; B) Scum wanted Sylencia to be the lurker that stood out the most on a day that everyone is clearly going to be talking about the Three Lurkers; C) Sylencia had valuable reads and insight and needed to be shut down.
Looking through Sylencia's filter, he does a good amount of blue speculation (potential sign of being blue?), thinks WB is either scum or vigi, votes WB Day 1, says that he's not blue, mentions that Sn0 considered him to be either blue or scum and perhaps that's why scum has been RBing him, then most of his final energy is defending himself.
His only real pressure read was WB; and there was speculation that he was blue. I can see scum RBing him twice just because of the possibility of him being blue.
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On February 19 2013 11:41 Mocsta wrote:Secondly, there is a chance there are 3 VTs, and only 1 Blue left (who may not even be a vet) Show nested quote +I think we need to shut up shop this cycle, and not let scum figure out who *ISN'T* a vet.
If there are 3 scum and 4 non-scum, the game would be over already unless there IS a vet.
I am going to operate on the assumption that we'll be playing on Day 4, either because of scum hitting a vet or because there are only 2 scum.
I'm going to try to do my own math on the setup to determine if there really CAN'T be just 2 scum.
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I think it's called time zones and weekends, my friend.
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Considering my time/participation has been limited, I'm going to contribute/analyze while I have the time (right now). I think that getting mroe people to participate in scum hunting is more valuable than the information that it may give to scum for their N3 actions.
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On February 20 2013 00:38 cDgCorazon wrote:
Second of all, you two are grouping your activity together and not actually getting anything done (compared to me/Warbaby/Mocsta).
Oh, yes? What "anything done" have you three accomplished, other than mislynching twice?
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On February 20 2013 00:38 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 00:27 zarepath wrote:
I think it's called time zones and weekends, my friend. First of all, it's Tuesday.
In America, Monday was a holiday.
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I'm not saying we're not in a horrible situation. But it's a heck of a thing to call someone out for not contributing at all, unlike Us Three Untouchable Mafia Gods Who Have Mislynched At Every Opportunity, right after I contribute a post full of content. It's almost as if the fact that I am contributing is your evidence for me NOT contributing. And what happened to you chilling until the deadline? Are you only lurking so that you can criticize anyone who posts?
I'm going to keep trying to work things out today. If you have a CASE that you believe will lead us to definitely finding scum tomorrow, then go for it. Otherwise, BACK OFF and let me do what you're complaining that I'm not doing.
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Day 1 Vote Analysis
On February 13 2013 09:05 Dandel Ion wrote:![[image loading]](https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/2752616335/4b3ae0f60a4556ba1b2b4088d779492b_normal.jpeg) Count Vote:Sylencia (2): warbaby, Mandalor WaveofShadow (1): geript Macheji (1): WaveofShadow geript (1): Mocsta glurio (1): Sevryn Sevryn (1): Sn0_Man Mandalor (1): zarepath Not Voting (5): 9-BiT, Macheji, glurio, Sylencia, cDgCorazon Currently, Sylencia is set to be lynched!
~1 hour remaining until deadline.
Remember you have to vote!
I am bringing this part up, before the final tally, because this is where Sylencia would have been lynched, and scum knew that Sylencia was not scum (and so do we, now). At this point, do scum necessarily want to hammer this home? Do they wait back and see if someone else will be the next vote? With so many 1-votes, I imagine it's hard for scum to decide what to do. At least one scum has voted at this point, because the only other person not on the board whose alignment we don't already know is Corazon.
What happens next?
Mocsta unvotes geript and goes for Glurio on this point:
On February 13 2013 09:14 Mocsta wrote:OK Glurio responded basically said.. his contributions are better than the other lurkers because Show nested quote +On February 13 2013 09:02 glurio wrote:
I know my alignement, don't know theres, i'm town. ##Unvote
##Vote: GlurioEven bad town are trying to contribute, its just they dont know how to do it effectively. (Look at WoS) That you can not even discriminate between your contributions and others, suggests you're not even trying. Guess what, thats scummy as.
Despite the fact that earlier, Mocsta had said the following:
On February 13 2013 08:07 Mocsta wrote:
I recommend we have 2 lynch candidates
i.e. 1 agreed representative for the lurkers
1 agreed representative for the actives
We never "agreed" but Sylencia is a representative for the lurkers that is currently set to be lynched. After preaching consolidation, why is Mocsta voting for Glurio at this point in time? It's true that about a page or two before this vote switch, he attacked Glurio, so it is not entirely out of the blue. But it IS inconsistent with his consolidation strategy. It is really only worth thinking about this because we all now know that Glurio was town, and Mocsta was the momentum for the Glurio lynch.
The next vote:
On February 13 2013 09:23 cDgCorazon wrote:
Lynching Glurio would go a long way in either proving or disproving my case towards WB. His town claim is even stupider than WB's as well. There's not much else to say.
##Vote: Glurio
So now Cora has put the third (and, in the end, final) vote on Glurio. His reasoning is incredibly suspect and I wish I had seen this earlier. Note that he is the last person to vote, and he only votes after Mocsta has switched onto Glurio. While Mocsta's switch onto Glurio is at least backed up by an attack pages earlier where Mocsta warned that Glurio was earning his ire, Cora's stance toward Glurio was not as clear or built-up, and his reasoning for switching is pretty awful -- in order to prove or disprove his theory on WB? I don't recall him following up on this and saying, "Well, this now means that WB MUST be town/scum," his entire reason for voting for Glurio. However, we can say that Cora was only trying to do what Mocsta had asked for earlier -- consolidation.
On February 13 2013 09:29 Dandel Ion wrote:
glurio (3): Sevryn, Mocsta, cDgCorazon
Sylencia (2): warbaby, Mandalor
WaveofShadow (1): geript
Macheji (1): WaveofShadow
Sevryn (1): Sn0_Man
Mandalor (1): zarepath
Not Voting (4): 9-BiT, Macheji, glurio, Sylencia
Currently, glurio is set to be lynched!
~half an hour remaining until deadline.
Remember you have to vote!
Now there are two people left to vote (4, really, but in retrospect and realistically only 2). No matter how they vote, either Sylencia or Glurio will be mislynched -- a mafia victory. Because we know who all these people were, we can deduce that mafia have all voted by this point.
Because of Corazon and Mocsta's votes, mafia is guaranteed a mislynch unless multiple people switch votes at the last minute AND the two final voters vote elsewhere.
Next, WB votes Sevryn for this Glurio wagon (not exactly a productive vote) but doesn't try to get people off of the wagon, and Glurio votes for Corazon for sheeping onto the Glurio wagon.
The final vote is Sylencia voting for WB, contributing nothing.
Considering where things stood, I find Corazon, Mocsta, and WB's votes to be the most suspicious coming out of Day 1, now knowing what we know. The question is -- if Cora or Mocsta are scum, why didn't they vote for Sylencia when there were already two votes on him? Perhaps a fear of looking too bandwagonny, and it's not as if any scum were in trouble themselves at the time. However, Cora's vote on Glurio would be exactly as bandwagonny (if not moreso) than if he had simply voted for Sylencia when there were two votes there.
WB's vote accomplishes nothing and goes a ways toward ensuring that either Sylencia or Glurio are mislynched.
I am curious as to anyone else's thoughts on these votes.
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 20 2013 01:00 warbaby wrote:
I feel the same was Corazon does.
For 96 hours, only 3 out of (original) 13 players actually played the game properly, and 2 halfway. That is bullshit and the game is pretty much ruined already.
Zarepath, Sn0_man, how would you like it if I stopped posting for 96 hours? Apparently I can without breaking the rules.
The weekend is when you have fun. Mafia is a game. You have fun playing games. If you do not have fun playing mafia, then you're doing it wrong. If you do not have fun on a 3 day weekend, you are doing it wrong. If whatever you do with your family for an entire 3-day weekend is more fun than mafia, the you are doing it wrong.
You are either doing it wrong by being a dull person who does not understand how to have fun, or you are doing it wrong by signing up for mafia when it's either not a game you enjoy playing, or you have much more interesting things to do with your time.
WB, legit concerns, but they don't relate to the game right now. Let's talk afterwards.
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EBWOP: I messed up the last part of my analysis -- it was Sylencia voting for WB, not WB throwing away a vote. Please ignore my last comments about WB's votes.
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My new policy lynch is to policy lynch Mocsta.
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Well, I feel good that at least I was getting on the right track right before we lost 
We really should have done better work on D3. We had the Mocsta slip and two easy filters to really delve into.
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I'm glad Cora didn't lynch you Day 1 WB
Sorry for going AFK -- I had family obligations almost all of Saturday, and Sundays are crazy.
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When/where is the next mini mafia that isn't a newbie one? I've done 5 now, so I'm probably out LOL
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Sn0 go sign up for This Town Ain'T Big Enough Mafia
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On February 20 2013 04:48 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 04:41 thrawn2112 wrote:if you're trying to suggest that mafia didn't deserve the win, or that you yourself are above how you've generalized all of town's play then you're quite wrong  i could feel your rage after the silly D1 lynch and thought you were town because of it, but with your "this town is terrible" attitude you put on for the rest of the game you were definitely contributing to the negative town atmosphere I didn't see a way to make town play decently, so I got super lazy. I'm aware this isn't good town play. I still don't see a way I could have won the game (esp. not with this setup). I'm honestly not bitter about losing anymore, (although I was sour for a bit), but I'm curious as to real suggestions as to how I could have pursued a victory as well as some thoughts as to how town in general can hope to ever win in a 9-3-1 setup.
We had a 2-in-3 shot on Day 3 and just didn't know it. A little more rigor when Sylencia seemed too easy of a lynch is all it would've taken. I feel like I personally could have switched the vote onto Mandalor if I had taken the time and effort.
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Even if we were going to lynch OO at the end of the day, I think we should have pretended that he might be able to earn another day of life, and pretended that we weren't going to lynch him. That gives us all day to scum hunt, and then we have a Plan B if we don't feel good about our scum hunting.
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No, we lost because I was lazy. Sorry.
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EPT
