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On January 22 2013 11:02 debears wrote:
As I said, Djo is likely scum :D
I agree with him being weird but I see no reason to go down that road right now.
He was voting for me and while some of his posts explaining stuff for me (?) seemed odd he ended up voting me and not Chez which means he's awesome for now :p
There's better targets we should look into right now. Namely oats, maybe still Annul imo but he looks somewhat better with prplhz lynch I guess... Balancewise that is.
Grush looks utterly terrible as well but not sure if that's alignment indicative...
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On January 22 2013 11:11 austinmcc wrote:
I'll admit to liking the logic behind Sandro being worried that players he found scummy/questionable voting for FT = prplhz town, but now we know that wasn't the case.
Also, given that prplhz was scum, I wouldn't be surprised if I had 2 scum, or at some point during the cycle had about 2 scum, on my list of votes. Stutters still doesn't leave me with a townie feeling, but I picked up a couple weird votes and I was in the don't lynch prplhz camp.
that's actually a legit point.
I started getting votes very late so I'd say there's bound to be something inside the group of people voting for you or inside the group of people voting for chez. He had 3 people voting for him as well after all and if I remember correctly you didn't get much more than that at any point.
Definitely worth a look at. inb4 another awesome ven-diagram from Toad figuring out mafia!
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On January 22 2013 11:16 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 11:10 Toadesstern wrote:On January 22 2013 11:02 debears wrote:
As I said, Djo is likely scum :D I agree with him being weird but I see no reason to go down that road right now. He was voting for me and while some of his posts explaining stuff for me (?) seemed odd he ended up voting me and not Chez which means he's awesome for now :p There's better targets we should look into right now. Namely oats, maybe still Annul imo but he looks somewhat better with prplhz lynch I guess... Balancewise that is. Grush looks utterly terrible as well but not sure if that's alignment indicative... I think Annul still looks bad. Let's have a look at his filter. What did he do yesterday ? He tunneled Vivax and he interacted with Axle. Not to mention that Vivax couldn't reasonably be lynched yesterday, being vocal and all, at least in my eyes. There is absolutely no mention of prplhz, and no mention of Oats as well. His tunnel on Vivax could have prevented him to voice his opinion on other subjects. That is a common scum strategy.
yeah totally agree and I would like him dead very much. I can't shake of the feeling of it beeing risky after successfully lynching anther vet d1 though.
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On January 22 2013 11:23 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 11:15 Toadesstern wrote:On January 22 2013 11:11 austinmcc wrote:
I'll admit to liking the logic behind Sandro being worried that players he found scummy/questionable voting for FT = prplhz town, but now we know that wasn't the case.
Also, given that prplhz was scum, I wouldn't be surprised if I had 2 scum, or at some point during the cycle had about 2 scum, on my list of votes. Stutters still doesn't leave me with a townie feeling, but I picked up a couple weird votes and I was in the don't lynch prplhz camp. that's actually a legit point. I started getting votes very late so I'd say there's bound to be something inside the group of people voting for you or inside the group of people voting for chez. He had 3 people voting for him as well after all and if I remember correctly you didn't get much more than that at any point. Definitely worth a look at. inb4 another awesome ven-diagram from Toad figuring out mafia! The chez voters were chez/axle/grush for a while. Not exactly votes that I find informative. The votes on me aren't wonderfully informative, [...]
well when voteanalyzing you don't look at the people and their reasoning but just plain old facts, who voted who. Voting you or voting chez at a time when it was known that prplhz was FT's prime lynch candidate is or at least might be a mafia treat.
Analyzing what that means and wether that's useful information comes afterwards :p
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On January 22 2013 13:37 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 13:22 yamato77 wrote:
Mocsta I don't think grush is scum, and I don't think accusing him is going to make it more evident even if he is.
I would spend your time looking at other players. Funny, coming from me, but Grush plays like this often. Only time will tell with him. Yamato, Something you are well aware of.. You pressure your read until either: (1) Convince you they are innocent or (2) Convince you they are scum or (3) 3 to 5 vets (a number so high that assuming all of them are mafia is bullshit) tell you the dude in question is town or (4) it's a spam-/shitfest and both factions are screaming like little children. In that case don't stop, but make a pause for 1 or 2 days instead and cool down. There's more fish in the ocean.Grush has not convinced my he is innocent, and has given me no reason to even consider him as innocent. Maybe for everyone else there are better reads, but for me he is my best until (1) or (2) is satisfied.
Fixed. Not directed at you at all though :p
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I fully agree with what Bugs said about Grush.
Furthermore you have to distinguish between people you want to be shot and people you want to be lynched when looking at people you want to see dead. That is if you have the luxury of doing that.
Lynching Grush would be an awfully terrible idea right now. Because of what bugs said. If that guy ends up flipping town we gave mafia the easiest time looking like they're doing something for an entire cycle because all there is to him is that he's lurkish, useless and ... well grush. Everyone can easily attack him for that and look like he's doing something.
Analyzing what happened afterwards would be really hard as well because there's no reason not to want Grush dead, so I couldn't possibly held people accountable on their actions when choosing to vote Grush or not to vote him.
That's the kind of guy you want to have vigged if you want him dead and not lynched. Not saying he looks townish at all, he doesn't. He's unreadable right now, which is a bad sign considering that I've got at least 50% of this game down as preeeetty certain town right now. So process of elimination works fine with him sometime later as well, which tells me to ignore him again.
You want to lynch people who are looking scummy while not being easy to take a stance on. That's literally everyone who's not a policy lynch because even if it fails, you get something out of that.
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Oh and I'm not saying vet-reads are more important. They aren't.
They are more consistent (most of the times, yes I'm looking at you bugs).
That's not that much of a big deal when talking about mafiareads because they can still be wrong a lot of times. So when a vet isn't explaining a mafiaread you shouldn't just sheep. He's probably doing that to gauge reactions.
On townreads it's something different though, those are so easy to do that you usually don't feel like explaining and you know that the majority of vets agrees with you anyways, so there's no need to. Which means if there's 4 vets telling you someone is town, even without reasoning you should listen to that.
I already mentioned I don't like talking about townreads. That's not because talking about townreads is essentially that bad but rather because it's a null without reasoning. If I provide reasoning I however end up giving mafia the key to "How to make Toad think you're a Townie", which really isn't that good of an idea in my opinion, so those townreads naturally will come without reasoning a lot.
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I'd say we wait and see what Palmar says about the doublelynch and the bodyguards. I don't know who they are just yet and I think considering that might be a good idea. We only have 2 doublelynches which means we don't have to rush it THAT much.
A doublelynch on either d2 or d3 is pretty much sure but I don't think we have to risk it right now.
Grush might be a nice secondary lynch when we're out of targets for a doublelynch after all. I'd still say there's better people to look at right now.
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On January 22 2013 15:25 yamato77 wrote:
Who are those people, Toad?
Aside from my bias against Vivax, which I am trying to reconcile, my red reads are as follows:
Annul
Djo
Clarity
Oats
For reasons I and other have mentioned about their play.
Do you agree or disagree with these targets for tomorrow?
Oats
Annul
JX
djo
in that order imo. Maybe add Chez but he's the same as grush just a bit more likely to flip mafia due to his campaign.
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oh gawd I really need to read the roles I don't posess as well :p
I thought it's the "Mayor decides to doublelynch via pm at night" doublelynch...
Well yeah, if we're getting a doublelynch the next day we're going to get one d3 pretty much no matter what.
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On January 22 2013 15:49 DearestSnot wrote:
Mocsta you should read more carefully. Oats was against electing FT because FT wanted to kill him.
Upon rereading and looking back at things I actually think Oats is town. Anyone agree?
As soon as FT is back perhaps he can explain further why he thinks Oats actually looks worse, because I disagree on that.
what do you make of Annul/chez bugs?
Both Sandro and I agree that there was probably a secondary guy running for mayor, like Oats just posted. Oats comes to the conclusion that it's gonzaw, which is weird, not because of his conclusion but rather because of the choice of target, don't you think?
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On January 22 2013 15:54 yamato77 wrote:
I can believe town Oats might think Gonzaw is scum from the stuff he quoted.
yeah the reason it's weird that he chose Gonzaw is that Annul / Chez would have been way easier targets to attack imo.
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On January 22 2013 15:56 DearestSnot wrote:
yeah I think annul is scum. Chezinu I have as town but it's not as strong as some of my other reads.
If anyone wants my opinions on shit, I'm going to be basically just handing them out like candy over the next 12 or whatever hours, as long as I'm awake. I have school in the morning but I imagine that I am dead, so just hit me with questions if you want answers.
I'll be doing a read dump and probably just throw in my spreadsheet for good measure toward the end of the night but that's about it. I'm looking over filters atm, trying to figure out who the other 4 scum might be.
I almost feel kinda bad for pressuring prpl so hard and so fast, given that his filter is completely devoid of any kind of hints toward who his teammates might be
what's your take on gonzaw? Sandro and I disagree about him a bit.
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On January 22 2013 16:01 DearestSnot wrote:
oh whoops I didn't address the gonzaw part.
Well I thought about it myself and thought that gonzaw taking votes was weird, but I don't think his alignment really factors into that. He opposed lynching prpl, but otherwise he looks townie. So, if scum voted him it was to avoid getting prpl lynched or to get someone who they thought would be "better" in the role of sheriff or mayor for them.
I don't find it suspicious that Oats would pick gonzaw as a target for that reason.
Also it's pretty townie of Oats to call out debears like he just did.
yeah pretty much what I thought as well.
Oh and I didn't mean it's suspicious of oats to pick gonzaw, in contrary I thought it's making him look better again. That kind of weird. Because as mentioned I would have figured he'd just go after Annul or Chez, who both would be way easier to attack (as in: I agree on gonzaw being townish) unless both are his mafiabuddies. The latter part being a retarded assumption to say the least.
So I'm stuck with the question who the secondary (or primary?) guy for mafia was. Prplhz didn't post an awful lot. I'd expect a talkactive guy to be that one. That could be gonzaw according to Sandro although we both seem to agree on his townishness.
That leaves me with Annul and Chez unless we have a contender for best play 2013 in this game.
However both aren't really fitting the "posted a bunch" bill. But then there's Annul's lazer-something excuse from d1 that came to my mind. I doubt that's a lie and if it's true it could explain a bunch and why the primary / secondary guy didn't post an awful lot.
Maybe Austin or you but that'd be reeeeally far fetched.
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yeah I don't think austin or you being the mafia-guy are likely at all. It's possible but only very remotely imo.
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On January 22 2013 16:20 DearestSnot wrote:
Toad do you feel like there was resistance to the prpl lynch?
from people I'd consider town maybe. Although I wouldn't call that resistance. Mostly people saying "yeah I agree prplhz is a good lynch but I don't think he's the best. I'd rather lynch X instead". Like I did as well.
I don't recall any real resistance besides Annul I guess? But that might have just been "Toad's a dick, fuck that guy" when he was posting it, because he didn't like me getting votes at all. Have to check it again.
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On January 22 2013 16:35 DearestSnot wrote:I want to see what sandro will have to say when he sees prpl has flipped scum. The PM exchange between you two made him look considerably more townie, but honestly his public reads are not very good IMO. What do you make of debears basically trolling? Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 16:32 Mocsta wrote:On January 22 2013 16:31 Mocsta wrote:On January 22 2013 15:49 DearestSnot wrote:
Mocsta you should read more carefully. Oats was against electing FT because FT wanted to kill him.
Upon rereading and looking back at things I actually think Oats is town. Anyone agree?
As soon as FT is back perhaps he can explain further why he thinks Oats actually looks worse, because I disagree on that. Noted on what you are saying. I re-read.. I did not think my critique of Oats was related to him being against FT election however? It was related to his conviction in saying prplhz was a mislynch. Perhaps you realised this so if you went out of your way to pointing it out prob means Im missing a piece of the puzzle?!? Bugs pls disregard.. i misread.. which was teh piece of the puzzle. hahahaha trust me, you'll be laughing about this in a couple of minutes. Come back to the thread when you have a clear mind :D
oh he has been back and we have been talking a bunch. He just hasn't posted in here. He's afk as of now though.
debears looks bad... and when I say bad it usually means "weird" or "out of character" and not "bad" but in this case it's actually bad and not weird.
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I could, I'd rather not. Needs a lot of editing.
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On January 22 2013 16:41 DearestSnot wrote:
yo Toad that last post was directed at you, btw.
How would you call the scumteam right now if you had to? All 4, maybe give some possibilities out of a max 6 let's say. Explain if you can, I'm curious to see if it matches up with my reads.
I'll be back in a couple hours, I'm gonna go watch a movie.
slot #1: Annul or Chez. Leaning on Annul, if he's not Chez is mafia imo. If stuff goes south and they SOMEHOW manage to flip town it has to be somenoe like gonzaw/you/austin but I really doubt that. So answer for that one would be Annul / Chez
slot #2: 1 out of oats / djo / JX
slot #3: 1 out of remaining out of (oats / djo / JX) + / Grush / debears / stutters
slot #4: 1 out of clarity / BKE ?
I don't have a lot of reads about people posting very few. So slots 3 and 4 are based and character treats I'd tell my buddies (assuming I'd be mafia) to play to make sure team mafia has diversity. Nothing else.
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If you're pressing me to formulate a real list with the guys I'd pick if I had to right now I'd say it's:
Annul as #1, oats or JX as #2, debears as #3, BKE as #4.
clarity seems very unlikely to be mafia but it's possible I guess.
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EPT
