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On January 30 2013 05:48 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 05:42 austinmcc wrote:On January 30 2013 05:34 yamato77 wrote:
I said this in my first game with him, but getting a read on Axle is difficult.
If you really think he needs to die, do whatever you want, but your evidence so far is inconclusive at best. Out of curiousity, what constitutes "conclusive evidence" in a mafia game? Out of curiosity, what constitutes "lurking" in a mafia game? Is it only coming to post pointless questions and derail your own lynch? Ugh, I wish Marv wanted you dead.
I'm legitimately interested in your answer. In your mind, I am mafia because of my interactions with the prplhz lynch, gonzaw, and chez's candidacy.
A lot of the push to lynch axle centers on his supporting chez and gonzaw, but that evidence is inconclusive at best.
So I'm curious as to why I am mafia but axle is difficult to get a read on and some of the same stuff is "inconclusive."
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Yamato? What's the difference? What's the conclusive evidence?
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On January 30 2013 06:18 grush57 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 05:53 grush57 wrote:
Austin and annul tommorow.
Any differing opinions? I retract.
Care to elaborate?
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Should be able to kick back into gear tomorrow or Fri.
Still interested in yamato's differentiation of Axle and I.
Thought I had remembered some people wavering on BKE/Chez yesterday, was specifically interested in people who wavered on BKE. Turns out everyone voted for him but mocsta, who moved his votes off to do something else and flipped townie. Vivax and Axle both left him but came back, and some of that was dealing with formatting of the double vote and unvoting. But Vivax was the only person who posted really doubting BKE's mafiosity, and I would like to hear why - On January 28 2013 00:41 Vivax wrote:
Wouldn't even be surprised if BKE flips town at this point. Senor Vivax, why wouldn't you have been surprised?
I actually like the idea of not double-lynching tomorrow. In my head it's a solid tool to have around at the very end, to be able to force a double lynch when the candidates are far, far fewer means that mafia has to do a lot more scrambling and can't get 2 mislynches as easily. Just don't think it's as useful a tool right now as it will be later on. Does anyone actually think it's MORE useful tomorrow than later? If so, why?
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Like...13 alive, 11/2 split. Voting power is either 13/2 or 11/4. We're not in danger of hitting endgame, we're not in danger of mafia 5T leaping out from behind the curtain and stealing a lynch.
Why double lynch NOW, when the odds are 11/2, versus waiting? Long game may get boring/suck/kill the thread, but we're squandering a resource if we lynch at 9/2 or 10/1 (assuming a NK goes through).
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On January 31 2013 06:13 FiveTouch wrote:
The odds aren't 11/2, unless you really think some of the townies have a decent chance of flipping mafia.
There's only a certain number of people I'm lynching into, and I know who I want to lynch tomorrow. Plus with a double lynch tomorrow we can revive a bit of flagging interest, and town can really debate a target, rather than me (and toad) ruling by diktat.
Not being funny but like 90% of town hasn't had a say in a lynch really all game, and I think tomorrow's a pretty good time to do so. Yeah, the subjective odds are different, and I can take myself out, and all that jazz.
But I'm skeptical that a double lynch is going to create oodles of discussion, a lot of us that aren't saying much also didn't say much on our earlier double lynch day (at least about lynch targets), and more skeptical that the value of any extra discussion is higher during the next cycle than one ... 2 or 3 down the road.
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On January 31 2013 06:21 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 06:17 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 06:13 FiveTouch wrote:
The odds aren't 11/2, unless you really think some of the townies have a decent chance of flipping mafia.
There's only a certain number of people I'm lynching into, and I know who I want to lynch tomorrow. Plus with a double lynch tomorrow we can revive a bit of flagging interest, and town can really debate a target, rather than me (and toad) ruling by diktat.
Not being funny but like 90% of town hasn't had a say in a lynch really all game, and I think tomorrow's a pretty good time to do so. Yeah, the subjective odds are different, and I can take myself out, and all that jazz. But I'm skeptical that a double lynch is going to create oodles of discussion, a lot of us that aren't saying much also didn't say much on our earlier double lynch day (at least about lynch targets), and more skeptical that the value of any extra discussion is higher during the next cycle than one ... 2 or 3 down the road. You were skeptical about gonzaw being mafia because there were no mason claims from people he'd talked to, despite the overwhelming evidence that was his lack of trying to help town when he was outed. I rather say I prefer my judgement on the dynamics and feel of a thread than yours, because you tend to put the emphasis on the wrong things. The last double lynch was decided pretty much before the day arrives, this one is not. Do you know which 2 players we're going to lynch tomorrow? Maybe you can guess, but everyone has different opinions. On Day/Night 2 BKE/Chez was getting pretty damn certain already. So yeah, I think it will force town to be active at this point tomorrow, whereas town has kinda died a bit of a death today, and I think that's a good thing. And I want to eliminate people I think are possibly mafia asap.
Alright, fair enough. I'd agree that the two double lynches will be different (and that I've been incorrect on most everything so far this game, for not-great reasons).
I'm still in favor of holding it for later though, and I wish there was more actual discussion on either day about double lynching, instead of blind votes.
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On January 31 2013 06:34 FiveTouch wrote:
There's no real reason to hold it for later. Mafia have a whole list of pseudo-confirmed townies that they can hit that we are never going to lynch.
I'd rather have these players alive and able to talk about things tomorrow than not. Mafia has 1 KP max. They're not magically dropping a list of players overnight.
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On January 31 2013 06:40 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 06:38 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 06:34 FiveTouch wrote:
There's no real reason to hold it for later. Mafia have a whole list of pseudo-confirmed townies that they can hit that we are never going to lynch.
I'd rather have these players alive and able to talk about things tomorrow than not. Mafia has 1 KP max. They're not magically dropping a list of players overnight. irrelevant? if we get a bunch of lynches wrong we're down say 2 more townies from lynches and 2 more almost-confirmed townies from NKs so... double lynch now while they're still around also for other reasons i just mentioned just do what i fucking say for once for god's sake.
Do what you fucking say is, in part, a problem that you're saying the double lynch will help solve.
If we get a bunch of lynches wrong and are losing townies, I don't see how a double lynch helps that. We're magically going to double lynch scum or 2 scum when we couldn't single lynch scum for 2-3 days?
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On January 31 2013 06:47 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 06:45 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 06:40 FiveTouch wrote:On January 31 2013 06:38 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 06:34 FiveTouch wrote:
There's no real reason to hold it for later. Mafia have a whole list of pseudo-confirmed townies that they can hit that we are never going to lynch.
I'd rather have these players alive and able to talk about things tomorrow than not. Mafia has 1 KP max. They're not magically dropping a list of players overnight. irrelevant? if we get a bunch of lynches wrong we're down say 2 more townies from lynches and 2 more almost-confirmed townies from NKs so... double lynch now while they're still around also for other reasons i just mentioned just do what i fucking say for once for god's sake. Do what you fucking say is, in part, a problem that you're saying the double lynch will help solve. If we get a bunch of lynches wrong and are losing townies, I don't see how a double lynch helps that. We're magically going to double lynch scum or 2 scum when we couldn't single lynch scum for 2-3 days? also, you appear to be arguing against using a double lynch later, when the only reason we'd use a double lynch later is because we hadn't killed all the mafia yet. so well done there. No, I'm for using one later. When mafia has less possible mislynch targets (the folks dead due to single lynches).
Even if you think we're losing a clear townie every night, we'd also be losing a lynch candidate every day. The clear townies shouldn't be factoring into the math of a double or single lynch either way, because we're just not lynching them. But the number of lynch candidates remaining DOES effect the math, and we only get better odds by waiting.
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On January 31 2013 06:45 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 06:45 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 06:40 FiveTouch wrote:On January 31 2013 06:38 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 06:34 FiveTouch wrote:
There's no real reason to hold it for later. Mafia have a whole list of pseudo-confirmed townies that they can hit that we are never going to lynch.
I'd rather have these players alive and able to talk about things tomorrow than not. Mafia has 1 KP max. They're not magically dropping a list of players overnight. irrelevant? if we get a bunch of lynches wrong we're down say 2 more townies from lynches and 2 more almost-confirmed townies from NKs so... double lynch now while they're still around also for other reasons i just mentioned just do what i fucking say for once for god's sake. Do what you fucking say is, in part, a problem that you're saying the double lynch will help solve. If we get a bunch of lynches wrong and are losing townies, I don't see how a double lynch helps that. We're magically going to double lynch scum or 2 scum when we couldn't single lynch scum for 2-3 days? ok, i submit to your argument, because you've been so god damn correct this game. I've been wrong in a bunch of my reads. This is read-independent. I was wrong about a couple of non-read things this game for a bit, but those also aren't at issue here. Not sure why you're getting defensive/offensive here.
To the extent you want a double lynch to get people talking, this is another way to get people talking. Not as valuable talk as who they want to lynch and reads, but it's still pulling people into the game during what otherwise seems to just be a dead remainder of the cycle. Or not, seeing as nobody else wants to say anything.
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On January 31 2013 06:52 FiveTouch wrote:
Why are you so incapable of just trusting my judgement? Jesus :/
I'm fine with your judgment when I think it's right 
I just don't think it is in this case. I don't see this as a judgment call at all, I think it's just straight-up better to hold our other double lynch for later.
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On January 31 2013 06:58 FiveTouch wrote:
What's going to happen tomorrow right. Is that there's gonna be some people shouting that you should get lynched. And some people shouting that annul should get lynched. And Toad probably saying fuba should get lynched.
And then I probably won't be able to stop what I think is a completely suboptimal lynch, and it'll be rubbish. Whereas if we double lynch, town will much more readily agree to my lynch target, if there's another one up for grabs.
It's basically a win for everyone. I swear you didn't type this British before being outed.
That still leaves us what you're calling a rubbish lynch tomorrow. In that case it doesn't stop a suboptimal lynch. That wording makes it sound like we'll just robo-lynch your target of choice and then have a normal lynch discussion concerning target #2, instead of just having a normal lynch discussion concerning the only lynch.
I'm going to assume this is just poor wording or whatever, and not push this point.
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On January 31 2013 07:08 Adam4167 wrote:
Why is using the double lynch even a discussion?
Having more town-directed KP is always a good thing. Whether we use the double lynch tomorrow or on a later cycle, town-directed KP is ALWAYS the same. The timing of the KP changes, but the amount does not.
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On January 31 2013 07:14 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 07:08 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 06:58 FiveTouch wrote:
What's going to happen tomorrow right. Is that there's gonna be some people shouting that you should get lynched. And some people shouting that annul should get lynched. And Toad probably saying fuba should get lynched.
And then I probably won't be able to stop what I think is a completely suboptimal lynch, and it'll be rubbish. Whereas if we double lynch, town will much more readily agree to my lynch target, if there's another one up for grabs.
It's basically a win for everyone. I swear you didn't type this British before being outed. That still leaves us what you're calling a rubbish lynch tomorrow. In that case it doesn't stop a suboptimal lynch. That wording makes it sound like we'll just robo-lynch your target of choice and then have a normal lynch discussion concerning target #2, instead of just having a normal lynch discussion concerning the only lynch. I'm going to assume this is just poor wording or whatever, and not push this point. If Axle flips mafia, then we have one mafia left to find. I'd much rather lynch the scummiest two guys right away and increase our odds of hitting mafia right then, drastically, then save it for some hypothetical situation later when town might be in trouble and it's a desperation move, rather than it being an empowering move. I would say it amazes me that you can't see this stuff, or don't consider it more important than your arguments, but it doesn't at all, sadly. I SEE that stuff. I almost-entirely disagree with it.
If you want it for a situation where we're down to one mafia, you can hold it until then (unless we're awful). Rather than relying on "If x flips mafia," we can double lynch WHEN someone flips mafia.
And I don't see why we'd lynch the two scummiest guys right away, instead of lynch the single scummiest guy for a day or two, and then lynch the two scummiest guys. It's not less powerful later, it's MORE powerful later when the pool of scummy guys is smaller.
If you want to say that it's better for thread morale or stuff like that, then fine, that's a point that I'm not really going to argue because it's more mushy. But the math on when it's weakest/strongest isn't in your favor here, the double lynch gets stronger as the pool of scummy folks gets smaller. It's not "desperation" at all to double lynch later.
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On January 31 2013 07:17 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 07:12 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 07:08 Adam4167 wrote:
Why is using the double lynch even a discussion?
Having more town-directed KP is always a good thing. Whether we use the double lynch tomorrow or on a later cycle, town-directed KP is ALWAYS the same. The timing of the KP changes, but the amount does not. Sure. But having more faster is the better way to go. Give me a 5-way lynch right now and ill take it. Clean out some unreadable's and probably hit a scum in the process.
Why is it "better"? You can lynch unreadable people any cycle. You can clear them out BEFORE you double lynch. If the benefit is that you "probably" hit scum, then the chance that you hit them increases with each cycle, so that's a downside, not a benefit.
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On January 31 2013 07:42 yamato77 wrote:
Austin why are you being super active when we're talking about whether or not we should double lynch as opposed to when we talk about who we want to lynch?
Aren't there at least a couple people you want dead right now?
For non-scummy reasons, like, "I have time right at this moment."?
I have a couple questions I would like answered, more than I have a couple people I want dead right now. Like the one I asked you.
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On January 31 2013 07:57 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 07:44 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 07:42 yamato77 wrote:
Austin why are you being super active when we're talking about whether or not we should double lynch as opposed to when we talk about who we want to lynch?
Aren't there at least a couple people you want dead right now? For non-scummy reasons, like, "I have time right at this moment."? I have a couple questions I would like answered, more than I have a couple people I want dead right now. Like the one I asked you. Something about the difference between you and Axle? Basically just a question to appear to make yourself look better to me. That's the one. Why are my interactions with gonzaw/chez/prplhz and discussions about them making you entirely sure I'm mafia, while they are inconclusive evidence as far as Adam is concerned?
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On January 31 2013 08:09 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 08:08 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 07:57 yamato77 wrote:On January 31 2013 07:44 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 07:42 yamato77 wrote:
Austin why are you being super active when we're talking about whether or not we should double lynch as opposed to when we talk about who we want to lynch?
Aren't there at least a couple people you want dead right now? For non-scummy reasons, like, "I have time right at this moment."? I have a couple questions I would like answered, more than I have a couple people I want dead right now. Like the one I asked you. Something about the difference between you and Axle? Basically just a question to appear to make yourself look better to me. That's the one. Why are my interactions with gonzaw/chez/prplhz and discussions about them making you entirely sure I'm mafia, while they are inconclusive evidence as far as Adam is concerned? Because you know more about what you're doing than Axle. And Axle's posts are far more difficult to decipher, so your association is more overt. How does knowing about what I'm doing factor into this, specifically? It sure doesn't make my reads right.
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On January 31 2013 08:11 mkfuba07 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 08:08 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 07:57 yamato77 wrote:On January 31 2013 07:44 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 07:42 yamato77 wrote:
Austin why are you being super active when we're talking about whether or not we should double lynch as opposed to when we talk about who we want to lynch?
Aren't there at least a couple people you want dead right now? For non-scummy reasons, like, "I have time right at this moment."? I have a couple questions I would like answered, more than I have a couple people I want dead right now. Like the one I asked you. Something about the difference between you and Axle? Basically just a question to appear to make yourself look better to me. That's the one. Why are my interactions with gonzaw/chez/prplhz and discussions about them making you entirely sure I'm mafia, while they are inconclusive evidence as far as Adam is concerned? Adam, or Axle?
Axle**
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EPT
