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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 14 2013 07:06 Clarity_nl wrote: It's not a terrible plan, but yeah since you were my target, no can do. Your plan also made you quite clearly pgo which was quite a pain for me. Well yeah, that meant that no matter who of the other 2 townies your target was, I just tell them "visit me", instead of trying to find out who's the real PGO. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On January 14 2013 07:24 gonzaw wrote: Well yeah, that meant that no matter who of the other 2 townies your target was, I just tell them "visit me", instead of trying to find out who's the real PGO. it's actually only a 33% chance and not 66% because even with the lyncher turned into a VT you can't win once 4 player scenario is reached. The only way for you to win as town + lyncher is for mafia to shoot the 1 specific guy n1 (let's just call the night with the first death n1). So it really was gg unless I shoot the jester (why should I...) and it wasn't possible for town to win. If his target was one of medic / shrink you'd have to lynch me in the 5 player scenario, which is still incredibly hard to do, just look at how many people thought I was mafia endgame... I mean your plan revolves around the lynchers target suiciding which can't work because it will automatically bring you to 4 player set-up unless you get INCREDIBLY lucky and the mafia accidently targets the same game. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 14 2013 07:30 Toadesstern wrote: it's actually only a 33% chance and not 66% because even with the lyncher turned into a VT you can't win once 4 player scenario is reached. The only way for you to win as town + lyncher is for mafia to shoot the 1 specific guy n1 (let's just call the night with the first death n1). So it really was gg unless I shoot the jester (why should I...) and it wasn't possible for town to win. If his target was one of medic / shrink you'd have to lynch me in the 5 player scenario, which is still incredibly hard to do, just look at how many people thought I was mafia endgame... I mean your plan revolves around the lynchers target suiciding which can't work because it will automatically bring you to 4 player set-up unless you get INCREDIBLY lucky and the mafia accidently targets the same game. If the lyncher target is shrink, the medic can save your shot or you can shoot the PGO, or you can shoot the shrink If the medic was his target, then the shrink can save your conversion, or you can shoot the shrink You sure all of that amounts to 33%? Let's see. First, let's assume you wouldn't know who is who (i.e you aren't sure who of Clarity/me/Dandel/iamp is jester/lyncher). Let's imagine X is your chance to shoot someone instead of converting (also let's assume you convert and don't shoot at the same time), Y is your chance to convert, and 1-X-Y your chance to not do anything (hold your shot) The chance of the lyncher target being medic/shrink is 50% (assuming it's not jester). If you convert: So you convert with chance Y, in which case you have 1/4th chance to convert anyone in particular. If lyncher target is medic: shrink WILL save himself (not the PGO since he dies). You have thus 1/4th chances to convert the PGO, the only role you can convert to try to win in this scenario (can't convert medic because he dies, can't convert jester because why the hell would you? you lose anyways, can't convert shrink because he shrinked himself). This means we have 1/2*3/4 chances of "winning" If lyncher target is shrink: Shrink will save PGO of course. This means you can ONLY convert the medic (can't convert PGO because he's shrinked, can't convert shrink because he's dying). Again, 1/2*3/4 chances So the chances for us to win if you convert someone are 3/4 If you shoot: You have X chance to shoot. Again, let's assume you shoot randomly. You have 1/4th chance to shoot a target in particular. If lyncher target is medic: Then if you shoot the jester we win, if you shoot the medic nothing happens and we win, if you shoot PGO you die, if you shoot shrink then we "lose". That's 1*1/4+1*1/4+1*1/4+0*1/4=3/4. Therefore it's 1/2*3/4 If lyncher target is shrink: Then if you shoot the jester we win, if you shoot the medic we "lose", if you shoot the shrink nothing happens and we win, if you shoot PGO we win. That's 1*1/4+0*1/4+1*1/4+1*1/4. Exactly the same as before, 1/2*3/4 So the chances we win if you shoot someone are 3/4 If you don't do shit: You don't do shit, so no matter what happens next day is 3 townies vs you vs jester we win. Thus the chances we win if you don't do anything is 1 So the chances we win are P(we win)=3/4*(X+Y)+1-X-Y= 1-1/4(X+Y) If you WILL do something, then X+Y=1, thus P(we win)=1-1/4*1 = 3/4 Since we assumed that the lyncher's target was not me (and assuming it couldn't be the jester for balancing reasons), then P(we win)=2/3*3/4 which is 50%. Maybe not as high as 66%, but at least higher than 33%. I guess you could say you would not "shoot randomly". Well, even if we assume you leave the jester out of everything (i.e you won't shoot nor convert the jester if you know who he is), then it's 44% That honestly feels way more than the chances town had in this game initially. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I know everyone's role besides confusing shrink and lyncher but that didn't matter, I knew I had the medic support so all that stuff didn't matter and I knew I can't hit the PGO. It literally only had a 33% chance because I can freely kill any one out of you guys and it's about wether or not that guy is the target. If he is it's possible to lynch in a 5 player scenario. If it's not the game is won for mafia in the 5 player scenario like it should have been without massive town retardation... In 4 player scenarios it doesn't matter because worst case scenario is 2 townies (no matter who you shoot) vs jester vs mafia which isn't possible for anyone to win besides mafia + jester. Obviously randomly shooting would be stupid. You can't shoot before you're 100% certain who the PGO and Jester are as mafia and if you know that that all doesn't matter anymore. But there was also no way for you to know that I guess. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
I thought everybody was as in the black as me lol | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
This space is intentonally left blank? | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
tryhard mode - engaged | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
to me this themed game was some serious liar game shit. Loved it (should have loved it even more) | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Or were you just as lost as I was?  | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On January 15 2013 04:59 gonzaw wrote: Hey Palmar, any thoughts/analysis of this game? Or were you just as lost as I was? Without full details of what went on in PMs I cannot really say much. I do think the idea of "town has x chance of winning" is somewhat flawed, since most people wouldn't be aiming to win as town anyway. And I still haven't found the time to sit down and actually put my thoughts into a nice big post, been very busy lately. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
 I've got like 3 pages of pm's from this game. Edit: Actually it's 4.5 pages of received pm's... not counting the ones I send and I'm pretty sure I send more Edit2: And on top of that all the german logs with JieXiann. Pretty sure I talked more with him than anybody else | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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