EPTBritish Empire Mini Mafia - Page 74
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 10 2013 13:17 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: No need Yamato we've got the scumteam wrapped up in fine linen for us. We don't really need to be discouraging discussion right now. | ||
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
On January 10 2013 13:17 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: No need Yamato we've got the scumteam wrapped up in fine linen for us. Yea this is terrible thinking. Hapa is right. We need to have lots of conversation and try to catch scum. Plz explain your read on me. Im not scum and i would like to be given an opportunity to prove it. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On January 10 2013 10:35 Dandel Ion wrote: Meh it's MrZ + jay. they're going for the too-obvious-to-be-scum Hardcore buddying trolling Not giving reads, not giving reasons of anything. You somehow read MrZ as town, so I want you to reflect on how bad you are, and reconsider when CC finally hammers me. And he's gonna do it let's face it. I don't have a convenient blueclaim. Dunno how you expect me to "prove" I'm town. Here he gives a Jay/ MrZ hypothesis, which seems plausible enough to me at this point. They've been calling each other town the whole game and their interactions are superficial at best. Neither one has been under significant pressure at all and neither one seems interested in giving meaningful analysis to back up their reads. On January 10 2013 10:50 Dandel Ion wrote: jay sure scum MrZ more likely than Zboson. You could even dumb Zbo down to a lynch-liars policy with a sprinkle of lynch-idiots-that-can't-read MrZ has never done anything that helps town all game, no idea how anybody could ever read him town. Here he seems convinced of jay's scumminess. He offers up the idea of lynching Z-Boson as his scum mate, giving us three distinct possibilities to look at for tomorrow in terms of the scum team: Jay/MrZ - I touched upon this earlier, it seems the most likely scum team to me given their play this game. Jay/Z-Bo - This would essentially be a double-bus scum team at this point which I think is unlikely, because as Hapa said losing 50% of your scum team just for some town cred is ludicrous thinking. It could still be possible however, so I will be paying attention to his this develops MrZ/Z-bo - The association no one has put forward yet, because it doesn't make much sense on its face. Quite a bit of day 2 from Z-Bo was spent pushing Zentor as scum, and Zentor still called Z-Boson town. This behavior could be scum-motivated, however, in that Z-Bo could have been pushing his partner the whole day because he figured it was a safe scum read to have because he wasn't in danger of being lynched, and Zentor throws the 'town' moniker around quite often, so it doesn't really mean anything. Moving forward, I think the best plan of action is to sit on the assumption that we can lynch Zentor at any point, and hunt for either his scum mate, or in the small likelihood that he's actually town, find the real scum. Unfortunately for us, the Dandel lynch wasn't as informative as it might have been because he wasn't in the game for that long, and he failed to give us any solid analysis on his reads to move forward with after his lynch. So essentially all we have is the time we give ourselves tomorrow, so if Zentor is actually town, it is in his best interest to not make good on his promise to do nothing tomorrow. That said, if he doesn't say anything, I think we should establish a point in time where he should just be lynched straight up, perhaps 18-24 hours after the day post. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
You summarizing the analysis of a townie that decided to mega-derp doesn't go much in the way of helping things. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
His filter obviously contains at least some of his true thoughts about the game, no? Why should I discredit everything he said just because he acted stupidly? Unless you believe he literally played anti-town the entire time and was lying about his scum reads I see no reason not to take them somewhat seriously. Do you disagree with the possibility of a jay/mrz scum team? Do you disagree with my analysis of the probabilities of the scum teams I put forth? There's more there than just "summary" bro. | ||
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
On January 10 2013 15:38 yamato77 wrote: Moving forward, I think the best plan of action is to sit on the assumption that we can lynch Zentor at any point, and hunt for either his scum mate, or in the small likelihood that he's actually town, find the real scum. We can lynch anyone at anypoint. If it's very unlikely that hes town then why wouldn't you just lynch him? You should always lynch your best scum read. Never ever save a lynch for later on someone you think is scum. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On January 10 2013 16:44 jaybrundage wrote: We can lynch anyone at anypoint. If it's very unlikely that hes town then why wouldn't you just lynch him? You should always lynch your best scum read. Never ever save a lynch for later on someone you think is scum. There's always the possibility that Zentor is town, isn't there? I mean we just saw a townie self-destruct yesterday. I agree he is probably scum, but even if he is I think the better move is to sit on the idea for at least a few hours. If you disagree, I want to know how you're so certain he'll flip. | ||
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
On January 10 2013 16:46 yamato77 wrote: There's always the possibility that Zentor is town, isn't there? I mean we just saw a townie self-destruct yesterday. I agree he is probably scum, but even if he is I think the better move is to sit on the idea for at least a few hours. If you disagree, I want to know how you're so certain he'll flip. Im not really certain about anything at this point. We still have a similar pool to lynch in but I have added Zentor to that lynch. I'm not as sure as i was about him as before. His im not going to post crap was dumb to say the least. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On January 10 2013 17:16 jaybrundage wrote: Im not really certain about anything at this point. We still have a similar pool to lynch in but I have added Zentor to that lynch. I'm not as sure as i was about him as before. His im not going to post crap was dumb to say the least. Let me ask you this, what before that point in time made you think he was town? It's really easy to point to that post and go "scum". Your read beforehand must have been pretty weak. | ||
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Mr. Cheesecake
United States3756 Posts
On January 10 2013 17:16 jaybrundage wrote: Im not really certain about anything at this point. We still have a similar pool to lynch in but I have added Zentor to that lynch. I'm not as sure as i was about him as before. His im not going to post crap was dumb to say the least. So who is your scumteam at this point? You've got three candidates that aren't confirmed town other than yourself. | ||
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MrZentor
United States1648 Posts
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MrZentor
United States1648 Posts
Also, Hapa, why are you making me do this? Finding scum is sooo easy, but it takes a lot of work to prove that they are scum. And I hate work. >.< You should just trust me. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 10 2013 11:22 MrZentor wrote: I hope that's a joke. Because you don't misread me. If you say I'm scum and I'm not, I know you're scum. And obviously everybody will lynch me over you, and scum will win. <3 Ya Hapa On January 10 2013 11:56 MrZentor wrote: ... And, if I were scum, that's exactly what I would do. I would pretend to scumhunt. But I'm going to do something much, much more difficult. I'm going to not post, at all. I'm going to resist that temptation. Because a scum would, before getting lynched, spam the thread with their "scumhunting" in a desperate attempt at not getting lynched. I'm going to prove I'm town by trusting your choice of a lynch, something a scum would never be able to do. I think you (deep down) know I'm town, so I would suggest you lynch Yamato. I hope you make the right decision, Hapa. The second I call you scum, you OMGUS me. Then within a span of an hour, you back down and are willing to trust me 100% again. | ||
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MrZentor
United States1648 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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MrZentor
United States1648 Posts
And this post I'm writing is taking a looong time. -.- | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Oh well. Here are my thoughts on where things stand right now: MrZ is NOT an automatic lynch tomorrow! As "scummy" as his actions are, lynching him is more of a coin-flip than many of us would like to admit. You can't lynch a fundamentally illogical player for doing illogical things. I also think the MrZ wagon is coming together far too easily. Tomorrow is a day where y'all need to sit back and objectively consider things. Patience. The words of syllogism ring in my mind: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=60#1195 On July 30 2012 08:16 syllogism wrote: For future reference if someone is getting lynched in a lylo with no resistance at all, you probably aren't on the right track Yamato is the closest thing I have to a town read amongst the unconfirmed players: Yamato has been making too many plays that I would deem too suicidal to be scum in my opinion. He OMGUS voted me very early in the game when I was pressuring him, and him being angry at CC seems very genuine - moreso than anything else in this game. I'm quite concerned about Z-Bo: Z-Bo entered this game posting frequently and a lot, but when I look at his filter, it occurred to me that he really hasn't pushed his reads in any meaningful ways. Z-Bo has been latched onto MrZ for most of the game and MrZ has seemingly been his top scumread. However, Z-Bo has been surprisingly content to jump onto other wagons. It's not something I can point to specific posts in his filter, but something you see after reading his filter as a whole. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=391112&user=28495&user=28495 When Mr.CC was being pushed by Yamato and DP, Z-Boson really sat on the sidelines and watched things. He probes CC with a couple of questions, and even mentions him as a scumread. But he's never really aggressive, nor does he lobby for votes... he just kinda pokes at him repeatedly. Also, I found this post really uncharacteristic of Z-Boson: On January 08 2013 16:07 Z-BosoN wrote: With that being said I'll take a better look at CC tomorrow. He's been quite active, and I'd rather lynch into people who don't really seem to give a shit. Z-Boson basically ignores his scumread against CC, and is deciding who to lynch based on diagnostics of activity - RATHER than actual scumminess. This is all the more strange, considering he was soft-defending ShaioPi at this point in the game (who was mega-lurking). Z-Bo repeats this process with Yamato, offering several pokes but never following up. On January 09 2013 07:04 Z-BosoN wrote: Also, I like Hapa's observation on yamato on his stance on CC, I hand't seen his "huge town read" earlier. Wonder what changed his mind Then he dismisses yamato on another strange diagnostic: I'm not too interested in yamato, his play has been pretty active, and was very persistent in his reads. Newer players generally don't behave so, especially with someone like hapa pressuring them the other way. I started flinging shit at you as soon as I caught up the thread, in which I saw a fairly understandable scum read turn into a "prob town read" for.... crap. Again, changing on a read based on activity rather than scumminess. Also, he just re-hashes a lot of what DP said in this post. All and all, I'm surprised that Z-Bo hasn't been all that assertive this game. He's relied on my approval for a lot of things as opposed to pushing for answers himself. As for Jay... God I don't know. There are a lot of posts that make me go "WTF" in his filter. An example is when he said me not voting in two lynches looked "bad." I can also go back to the early-game where he was on DP about scumslips. What's making me lean scum on him right now is how he's all of a sudden willing to lynch MrZ after hard-defending the fuck out of him for all of yesterday. Also, he's attacking yamato for not being willing to insta-lynch MrZ, which is really strange: On January 10 2013 16:44 jaybrundage wrote: We can lynch anyone at anypoint. If it's very unlikely that hes town then why wouldn't you just lynch him? You should always lynch your best scum read. Never ever save a lynch for later on someone you think is scum. The flipside is that he made posts that we can construe as "genuine," but at this stage of the game, I don't believe that's a legitimate reason to think that someone is town. My raw gut-feeling on the scumteam is the combo of Z-Bo and Jay. My brain says MrZ, but my gut is usually right on these things. Wish I had more time. Sorry I couldn't leave y'all with more. GL HF, and I hope what I've left is of help to you guys =) | ||
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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