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Guys.. dont want this getting lost in a sea of Day2 waste of time cases.
On January 07 2013 13:11 Mocsta wrote:
Sylencia.
Your post lists very good outcomes, and is very comprehensive. Well done.
I had some further thought about your post, and noticed that you treat TeMiL as a 50/50 town.scum player.
Considering that there are 7 players left, 2 are scum, 5 are town.. I think the probability should read 5/7 town, 2/7scum.
If you have the time, could you please re-jig the maths, and let us know what the difference is.
Will it still be favourable to town if we just lynch TeMiL?
Also, I had a thought about the no vote situation, and regardless of replacement I am not sure if we can consider the situation of TeMiL scum, and we lynch scum = instant win.
Because, if TeMiL is scum.. then all his actions have been pre-meditated and well considered. It would be completely out of character to follow this up with a mod kill. The chances are so close to 0% its not worth considering (in my opinion)
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Oh, you are talking about lynching TeMiL and him being scum?
That's not an instant win, but it would put it into town favour IMO. It would give us an extra day before lynchorlose, but not really give us any leads as to who is the second scum. It would still be a massive victory for town.
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On January 07 2013 15:34 Spaghetticus wrote:
Oh, you are talking about lynching TeMiL and him being scum?
That's not an instant win, but it would put it into town favour IMO. It would give us an extra day before lynchorlose, but not really give us any leads as to who is the second scum. It would still be a massive victory for town.
Spag, may I be kind to direct to you to the below.
On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote:
I am highly analytical and loathe posting accusations that imply a reality I do not believe. I adhere to theory over empiricism,
I am self-confessed, not much of a numbers man; I would appreciate with your analytical mind, if you could take the time to crunch the numbers, using the 5/7 theory, Sylencia was working on.
Considering you only post comments you believe in, I assume you already crunched these numbers, when you said, it would give town a favourable chance  It would only be natural to assume that right?
I wasn't goign to ask, you being busy with RL and all.. but considering you had the time to post your response, figured you would be active enough to help out a non-numbers guy.
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Australia1057 Posts
Temil Town, Mislynch: 2-2 after night action, we lose.
Temil Town, Scum lynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO.
Temil Scum, Mislynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO.
Temil Scum, Scum lynch: We win (probably wishful thinking at this point)
If we lynch Temil:
Town: 3-2, MYLO
Scum: 4-1
I personally don't think this recalculation is worth it because he will be replaced if he doesn't vote, but since you asked:
Assuming probability of a mislynch is 5/6 if Temil is scum and 4/6 if Temil is Town (aka completely random):
Temil Town, Mislynch: 5/7*4/6 = 20/42
Temil Town, lynch: 5/7*2/6 = 10/42
Temil Scum, mislynch: 2/7*5/6 = 10/42
Temil Scum, lynch: 2/7*1/6: 2/42
40/42 chance we lose? I'm not 100% if my calculation is right there, but that's a damn high percentage if you take it like that.
Also, I'm not even sure if this calculation is relevant anymore, because he will be replaced if he doesn't vote.
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Thanks Sylencia.. (I would appreciate if you could take the time to vet the logic below; perhaps I made an error)
(1) I know there has been a wave of activity since your original post.. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=33#646
(2) To refresh, the whole reason I raised the 5/7 town, vs 50/50 town calculation is because you concluded that Town is in a favourable position by voting TeMiL; you also maintained your vote on TeMiL.
When I did the math, I was taking a more simplistic approach But hey, Im a simple guy.
[I am not concerned with no-vote condition, it is not guaranteed + getting a replacement anyways]
So taking your logic and applying the absolute basics...
if we lynch TeMiL: (and he votes)
+ Show Spoiler +
Town (5/7) : 3-2, MYLO
Scum (2/7): 4-1 (good position)
5/7 = 72% of MYLO situation (This is a general percentage that can be applied if we lynch anyone not Town)
This can be interpretted as... we need to be very selective for Day2 lynch candidate.. if we choose wrong, there is a 72% chance of "Mis-Lynch and Lose" for Day3.
Because I know I am town, the actual probabilities from my perspective is:
+ Show Spoiler +
Town (4/6) : 3-2, MYLO
Scum (2/6): 4-1 (good position)
4/6 = 66% of MYLO situation
This is still unfavourable action for town, and thus, I can not advocate this path based on probabilities.
Well, you might counter by saying.. lets gamble on the odds, and use the information we know (i.e. assumed town players).
Well.. besides myself, i feel certain on 2 players being town.. 2 are null.. and 2 i have severe suspicions of (and have voted for 1 of those 2).
If include my 2 town reads (and myself) the odds change to:
+ Show Spoiler +
Town (2/4) : 3-2, MYLO
Scum (2/4): 4-1 (good position)
2/4 = 50% of MYLO situation
50% odds are still unfavourable to town... Do we really want to put this game into a coin flip?
The whole point of the scum hunt is make the odds for town >50%...
Thus, I can not place a vote on TeMiL solely due to probabilities. I think the window of opportunity has passed to vote this way.
I shall conclude, as I did the post where I defended TeMiL being lynched.http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=33#642
I am not asking you join me on jampidampi. You need to consider for yourself if you think his filter is scum motivated.
I moreso ask that you reconsider the vote on TeMiL. He is an easy lynch bait target for mafia to jump on; and his lynching will result in a MYLO situation, potentially without a unanimously agreed scum target.
The implication of TeMiL being lynched on Day2 is [ALMOST] a guaranteed loss of game for town
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Australia1057 Posts
Right, I see what you were asking about now, and your probabilities are right. However, you have to factor in that if you keep him in, you are keeping him in in a MYLO situation if we mislynch someone else, because the chances he gets killed off by scum is so low. This goes back to your original case of asking 'Do you want to bring Temil into that kind of situation?'
If you don't mind, then voting someone else is the better option. If you do mind though, you'd have to consider the probability you win after keeping him to day 3.
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On January 07 2013 16:24 Sylencia wrote:
This goes back to your original case of asking 'Do you want to bring Temil into that kind of situation?'
If you don't mind, then voting someone else is the better option. If you do mind though, you'd have to consider the probability you win after keeping him to day 3.
Completely know what you are saying here.
I think its a situation that has to be evaluated Day3.
I think for Day2, we have to try to eliminate mafia; at least we build up a safety day, (outnumber 4-1)..
On Day3 with the safey day, if there isnt a strong scum read, and use the buffer to vote off TeMiL, and go into Day4 with MYLO.
tl;dr
For Day2, I think we have to vote a scum read.
For Day3, voting TeMiL can be re-evaluated.
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I just got rudely woken up by my cat... I'm extremely out of it but from what I've read and what I understand at 2:30 in the morning... if your % are right and I can explain this clearly enough, I believe yourself and Syl to be confirmed town. I've decided that at this point (and after reading everybody's filters while I was alone all day) that if you(mocsta) are scum we've lost but I'm convinced you are town and syl is a town read. I Know I am town and although it is a lot to ask I'm begging you to trust me on that. That leaves us with 3 players, 4 with TeMiL that are possible scum. I believe that gives us slightly better than 50% odds on a scum lynch.
Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch. However if this is true with who I've identified as town it also means TeMiL roughly has as you said (maybe.. I'm tired) a 50% chance of being scum. so if we look at it as jampi, spag and zare and only 1 scum among them, I think I'd pick Jampi.
I'm gonna go get a drink and then on my way back to bed I'll see if anybody else is awake. Idk how long I'll be up either way though lol and if this makes less sense than normal... well... I'm tired 
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On January 07 2013 16:36 OmniEulogy wrote:I just got rudely woken up by my cat... I'm extremely out of it but from what I've read and what I understand at 2:30 in the morning... if your % are right and I can explain this clearly enough, I believe yourself and Syl to be confirmed town. I've decided that at this point (and after reading everybody's filters while I was alone all day) that if you(mocsta) are scum we've lost but I'm convinced you are town and syl is a town read. I Know I am town and although it is a lot to ask I'm begging you to trust me on that. That leaves us with 3 players, 4 with TeMiL that are possible scum. I believe that gives us slightly better than 50% odds on a scum lynch. Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch. However if this is true with who I've identified as town it also means TeMiL roughly has as you said (maybe.. I'm tired) a 50% chance of being scum. so if we look at it as jampi, spag and zare and only 1 scum among them, I think I'd pick Jampi. I'm gonna go get a drink and then on my way back to bed I'll see if anybody else is awake. Idk how long I'll be up either way though lol and if this makes less sense than normal... well... I'm tired
Omni..
will you be online in say 7hrs? If so, I will ensure that I am available for discussions (will be 11pm my time).
Lynches at at 08:00am for me.. I can be there from 0600 to 0800, but between 0200 and 0600 is asking too much and the final 2hrs are not enough for town to evaluate a good case (as I proved on Day 1)
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Yeah. I can be on for that. Alternately we can also look at TeMiL as useless town in which case we've got 66% chance to hit scum in Jampi, Zare and Spag. At this point if one scum ISN'T in that group we're fucked.
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On January 07 2013 16:36 OmniEulogy wrote:
Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch. However if this is true with who I've identified as town it also means TeMiL roughly has as you said (maybe.. I'm tired) a 50% chance of being scum. so if we look at it as jampi, spag and zare and only 1 scum among them, I think I'd pick Jampi.
Omni... I agree on your choice of 4 possibilities for scum.
jampidampi
spaghetticus
zarepath
TeMiL
Below are my rough outlines of thoughts on the four candidates.
TeMiL
+ Show Spoiler +
obivously a loose cannon, and not even posting currently, hence null read. I think the best approach is to focus on lynching a scum, and dealing with TeMiL day 3... he might even get replaced the way this is going.
TL;DR
Leave for Day 3 and pursue a top scum read.
zarepath
+ Show Spoiler +
For me. i still think his motives are town based, but obviously real life has gotten in the way of more contributions. Because of this I would say null with a town vibe (which is what I have been saying since Day 1).
If you can find scum motivations, I am more than willing to hear them out and consider him as a candidate (due to being null)
TL;DR
I still think his actions are taken with town in mind. He may be aggressive, but heck, so am I and OmniEulogy.
Spaghetticus
+ Show Spoiler +
Many, Many fishy things in his play... but he has also been active. I think the second scum is between TeMiL (no read) and spaghetticus. Best approach I think is to leave for Day3, and monitor his voting activities for Day 2. (Will be difficult as he changes his vote a lot)
TL;DR
Leave for Day 3; his actions on day 2 may go a long way to proving innocence.
jampidampi
+ Show Spoiler +
Has been weak all game, filter is minimal (just over 1 page); and has only released information when asked. All classic scum traits.
Then there is the case on me (if you can even call it a case). That is so riddled with lack of conviction, you can actually visualize him shaking while typing because he knows hes just creating and fabricating meanings for his (scum) agenda.
TL;DR
This is my #1 scum read. Was before his case on me, and is definitely after his case on me.
With the last post Omni... treat TeMiL as useless town.. 33% of scum for jampidampi, spag, zarepath.
I think spag/zarepath/TeMiL can be worked on Day 3.
as you said, jampidampi is the easiest candidate, as I outlined above.
I shall re-iterate with my vote from prior.
On January 06 2013 18:28 Mocsta wrote:
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##VOTE: Jampidampi
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##Vote: Jampidampi
I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion.
Anyway I'm off to bed cya.
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Australia1057 Posts
I'll look over everything once I get home, I left home about an hour ago and will be back in about 3 hours.
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@Mocsta.
I change who I pressure a lot, I do not change my vote a lot. So far I have voted TeMiL, and switched to StriX in day one, and voted for TeMiL in day two, though this could change as well if he'd show up and defend himself. I think this voting formula very similar to your own, and I'll disregard it as an honest mistake on your part to think this.
I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly. We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%. What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
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##Vote: Jampidampi
I'll go over it more in a few hours but yeah. Also I never really noticed this but if you look at Jampi's filter the person he responded to the most and was pressured by the most was Cora. Cora gets killed before there is any real conclusion.
Anyway I'm off to bed cya.
@Omni
This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, you are simplifying things out of laziness. I don't think Jamp is a terrible lynch, though my designs obviously lay elsewhere. I don't mind people voting for Jamp, but don't make up reasons for doing so if you are only acting out of laziness.
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On January 07 2013 20:13 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Omni
This is lazy sheeping. [b]NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum[b], that would make this game damn easy. [b]NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, ....
Hi Spag.
You have convinced me about NKs. What you said there, is spoken with [true] conviction.. straight out of the 'proverbial' horses mouth.
Guess you were right when you said the below...
[B]On January 03 2013 19:51 Spaghetticus wrote:
I am relatively knowledgeable in scum behaviour.
You have indeed proven this is true...
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EBWOP:Damm BBCode
On January 07 2013 20:13 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Omni
This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, ....
Hi Spag.
You have convinced me about NKs. What you said there, is spoken with [true] conviction.. straight out of the 'proverbial' horses mouth.
Guess you were right when you said the below...
On January 03 2013 19:51 Spaghetticus wrote:
I am relatively knowledgeable in scum behaviour.
You have indeed proven this is true...
[/QUOTE]
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Is this sarcasm? You are allowing the imagination to go almost anywhere with your provocative comments.
I know what an NK is, or do you think Omni's insight superior? Treating an NK as anything but what I called it
NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results
Would be absolutely fracking retarded. It does not take a scum to know that this is how an NK works, it doesn't even take a particularly well informed town.
How do YOU think we should think about NK's? Am I wrong? Do you think it beyond my intelligence to infer this much with both my penchant for theory crafting and the abundance of guides laying around? You don't even know whether I use coaches or not and you assume that I don't know what an NK is? This is like the umpteenth time you have either uncharitably appraised my motive or been incongruous in your understanding of my thoughts.
This is the first time it's sounded like you might want to make a case. Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight.
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On January 07 2013 21:06 Spaghetticus wrote:
This is like the umpteenth time you have either uncharitably appraised my motive.
This is the first time it's sounded like you might want to make a case. Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight.
Don't u worry Spag.. you me, or Syl are not dying tonight.. Its still Day 2, just in case you forgot.
Just so you know.. My interests are firmly trenched with the Day 2 lynch. Town has a golden opportunity to lynch scum, and we all need to band together. Naturally you are welcome to join us.
Now. Just in case your post clutter has made it forgotten who the prime target for Day 2 is.
Let me remind you.
On January 06 2013 18:28 Mocsta wrote:
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##VOTE: Jampidampi
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EPT
