EPTOn January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Mocsta.
I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly.
We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%.
What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
@Mocsta.
I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly.
We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%.
What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
Wow.. you are doing your best to campaign for TeMiL arent you... you know..
Since you directed this post at myself.. i will personally do the courtesy of breaking this down into (4) components for you.
(1)
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Mocsta.
(1)I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly.
+ Show Spoiler +@Mocsta.
(1)I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly.
Town is losing... odd logic? 7 players... 5 - town; 2 - scum... how are we losing?
If we vote off a scum player and 1 town dies from NK; we are left Day 3 with 4 (Town) and 1 (Mafia), does not sound like losing to me? Heck, even right now 5 to 2.. it doesnt look like losing.. This is such an interesting perspective you have Spaghetticus.
If I point you to the "guide to playing mafia" in the OP; A townies first priority is to establish innocence.. (the 2nd is to read posts; 3rd is to scum hunt)
Out of 7 players.. i have confidence 3 are innocent; have townish reads on 2, and scummish reads on 2.. doesnt look like a losing position to me?
If we vote off a scum player and 1 town dies from NK; we are left Day 3 with 4 (Town) and 1 (Mafia), does not sound like losing to me? Heck, even right now 5 to 2.. it doesnt look like losing.. This is such an interesting perspective you have Spaghetticus.
If I point you to the "guide to playing mafia" in the OP; A townies first priority is to establish innocence.. (the 2nd is to read posts; 3rd is to scum hunt)
Out of 7 players.. i have confidence 3 are innocent; have townish reads on 2, and scummish reads on 2.. doesnt look like a losing position to me?
TL;DR
How can town be in a losing position we we out number scum. 5 town to 2 scum?.. Even after a mislynch and NK, we are still outnumbered scum, 3 town to 2 scum..
Town is in a position to scum hunt.. make a calculated lynch decision...vote as one town... and lynch scum; paving our way to victory.
(2)
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%.
+ Show Spoiler +We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%.
Well Spag.. 50% just aint good enough for me as I suggested in the Sylencia vetted vote logic (linked above).
The objective of the scum hunt is to raise that % as high as positive, and I agree with OmniEulogy, we can get the top scum reads down to 2 or 3 players, thus increasing the probability to lynch scum to over 50%. A fine town goal to achieve.
Why are you against this again?
TL;DR
Town can achieve success through determined scum hunting, and joining our vote together.
This will set us up for a 4 Town, 1 Mafia Day 3. We need to join our votes together
(3)
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
+ Show Spoiler +What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
Agreed, we need the highest scum lynch possibility. We we use deduction, and eliminate sound town reads we can achieve 50% scum lynch rate. If we take a gamble, and eliminate null reads, we can achieve a 66% scum lynch rate (3 candidates, 2 = scum, 1 = bad town).
If you disagree on using deduction to remove town reads.. let me point you to Spaghetticus from a former life. (Newbie Mafia 33.. btw.. you were town)
Well.. i agree with a lot of this. Good towns can find scum, day 1, day 2 or day 3.. In fact it gets easier from Day 1 -> Day 2. We have a good town, so using your logic, we have no reason not to chase scum.
Why are you advocating we vote TeMiL again?
If you disagree on using deduction to remove town reads.. let me point you to Spaghetticus from a former life. (Newbie Mafia 33.. btw.. you were town)
On December 20 2012 13:26 Spaghetticus wrote:
"I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum."
"I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum."
Well.. i agree with a lot of this. Good towns can find scum, day 1, day 2 or day 3.. In fact it gets easier from Day 1 -> Day 2. We have a good town, so using your logic, we have no reason not to chase scum.
Why are you advocating we vote TeMiL again?
TL;DR
By using deduction to remove good town reads. We can reduce the possible mafia players from 7 players, down to 3 or 4.. This increases our chance of lynching scum up to 66%.. We can increase this further by additional scum hunting.
(4)
On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
+ Show Spoiler +Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
Well. we didn't just remove null reads. Read the Sylencia Vetted Vote Logic. We treated 3 scenarios.
1. The generic, 5 town, 2 mafia to consider.
2. The town perspective.. 4 town, 2 mafia to consider (don't incldue yourself.. assuming you are town)
3. The deduction perspective.. . 2 town, 2 mafia to consider. (with 3 recognised townies)
We left the null reads in there.. interesting you didn't pick up on this Spag, especially for an analyst with a keen eye such as yourself.
TL;DR
Spag misquotes here, but we will give him benefit of the doubt. Perhaps real life led him to posting in haste.
Spag, thank you for sharing your thoughts. I disagree with your reasoning to vote TeMiL. I suggest town join forces on one lynch candidate.
BTW, Out of respect for TeMiL.. I need this to be clear.
I personally found this post of TeMiL,,
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2013 00:02 TeMiL wrote:
ive just make a chart with your connections.
i want to know for each one your nationality and the country of residence, or maybe everyone are native from each country that TL says:
TeMiL - Peru
Sylencia - Australia
Spaghetticus - Australia
Mocsta - Australia
StriX - Australia
OmniEulogy - Canada
jampidampi - Finland
cDgCorazon - USA
zarepath - USA
i need to make some conclusiones with this information
:$
ive just make a chart with your connections.
i want to know for each one your nationality and the country of residence, or maybe everyone are native from each country that TL says:
TeMiL - Peru
Sylencia - Australia
Spaghetticus - Australia
Mocsta - Australia
StriX - Australia
OmniEulogy - Canada
jampidampi - Finland
cDgCorazon - USA
zarepath - USA
i need to make some conclusiones with this information
:$
more useful to town than the Spag post I just broke down.
