EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIV - Page 33
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On January 07 2013 10:58 Sylencia wrote: ##Vote Temil Our discussion has gotten nowhere today, and at this rate, we have potentially 2 kills going down if Temil doesn't come. The worst thing would be if two townies just died at this point because that would actually just end the game right there. (Unless Temil gets replaced assuming he does not vote) If we are to prevent this, then we can actually cut our losses and vote for Temil, losing only 1 person who was already a detriment to town as it was. Sylencia, I appreciate you entering the fray and contributing your thoughts to this lack-lustre day. The reasoning you submitted for TeMiL (TeMiL rationale) was fantastic and a very good extension of my initial thoughts.(Mocsta TeMiL case) However, I have to respectfully disagree with you on this vote, as i think the window to vote off a "bad" townie has closed. This is based on the following: (1) if TeMiL is lynched and flips town, with the night kill, we are guaranteed to start Day3 with 5 players (3 town + 2 scum). This is instant MYLO situation. (2) The benefit of eradicating TeMiL Day 1 was because the chance of lynching townie was high (proven by Strix lynch), so we were replacing a high probability townie lynch with a guaranteed bad townie lynch. The Day 2 numbers outcome would be the same (5 townies + 2 scum) its just we would be left with 5 townies, not 4 + 1 bad townie. So even though I support(ed) the play of (2)... because of the outcome from (1) I think we can not afford to vote out a bad townie. MYLO with the current town atmosphere is instant game loss. The window of opportunity fort his gambit has closed. Caveat: If the town atmosphere was better, yes, I would consider supporting the TeMiL vote Day 2 P.S. Whilst TeMiL has not contributed significantly; and his actions are not telegraphed in advance - making him a loose cannon. I believe that his vote on Day1 was not made lightly. I think that his vote was sound, even though the rational presented was limited. i.e. based on the condition of the thread, I do not think a vote on jampidampi is unreasonable to suggest (Mocsta: jampidampi overview reasons to lynch), nor do I think it is the vote of a person who "blindly pinned a tail on the donkey" I am not asking you join me on jampidampi. You need to consider for yourself if you think his filter is scum motivated. I moreso ask that you reconsider the vote on TeMiL. He is an easy lynch bait target for mafia to jump on; and his lynching will result in a MYLO situation, potentially without a unanimously agreed scum target. The implication of TeMiL being lynched on Day2 is guaranteed loss of game for town | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
 .On jampi I'm not sure; I'll be reading filters in the morning to see what I think about that. Again, he hasn't produced enough for a really solid analysis of him, but neither has TeMiL and we're apparently fine with that. I don't know. I'll have more to say in probably 12 hours; it's bed time for me now. | ||
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
It looked like you were a scum trying to avoid having to continue posting. The only reason you're on my bullet-proof list is because if you are scum and continue to post a lot, you will slip and die. If you fail to maintain your own momentum, my perspective on you will change. I'm going to go browse filters for a while and try and figure out who I'm voting for. I can almost feel the scum laughter as town stagnate to an early grave. @Zare: I appreciate your life infringing on your game, but please make an effort to jump in as much as time will allow. From out perspective life excuses are pretty much wind, despite the fact they are often true. Any scum can claim life problems as an excuse to lurk, it's unverifiable. | ||
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
Assuming no replacement, and he does not vote: Temil Town, Mislynch: 2-2 after night action, we lose. Temil Town, Scum lynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO. Temil Scum, Mislynch: 3-1 after night action, MYLO. Temil Scum, Scum lynch: We win (probably wishful thinking at this point) If we lynch Temil: Town: 3-2, MYLO Scum: 4-1 You say that the MYLO situation makes us lose automatically, but playing the odds we have 75% chance to lose if we don't lynch him and 50% chance to lose if we do. All of this is assuming he does not vote, so things change if he does. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
##vote:TeMiL If TeMiL is still hovering over this thread I'd really like to hear his thoughts | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until Day Three. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list. Replacements are greatly preferred over modkills, so please PM one of the hosts if you are willing to replace in and don't ask for the obs QT. We do what we can, because we must. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
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iamperfection
United States9642 Posts
jampidampi (1): Mocsta Temil (2): Sylencia, Spaghetticus Not voting (4): TeMiL, zarepath, jampidampi, OmniEulogy Temil is set to by lynched! The deadline is in like 20 hours or something. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Your post lists very good outcomes, and is very comprehensive. Well done. I had some further thought about your post, and noticed that you treat TeMiL as a 50/50 town.scum player. Considering that there are 7 players left, 2 are scum, 5 are town.. I think the probability should read 5/7 town, 2/7scum. If you have the time, could you please re-jig the maths, and let us know what the difference is. Will it still be favourable to town if we just lynch TeMiL? Also, I had a thought about the no vote situation, and regardless of replacement I am not sure if we can consider the situation of TeMiL scum, and we lynch scum = instant win. Because, if TeMiL is scum.. then all his actions have been pre-meditated and well considered. It would be completely out of character to follow this up with a mod kill. The chances are so close to 0% its not worth considering (in my opinion) | ||
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
Admittedly, it looks like this was his plan before he received his role. In the posts I read his writing was a little slack, but his grammar seemed better, and his posts were more thought out. Can someone have a quick read and give thoughts? TeMiL's XXXIV filter TeMiL's TL posts | ||
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jampidampi
Finland386 Posts
Your case on Omni has been the worst case so far. I will not restate what Cora has already stated. (1) Policy talk from all is typically meaningless fluff at the start. You say you will actively scum hunt.. but what have you contributed actively? A vote on zarepath.. because he votes no-lynch early game. that is not active scum hunting. That is prejudice. I can vote 100 people between now and deadline. its the vote at deadline that matters. First sign you need to step up your game.. the question is whether town or scum motivation. To me, I take this 50/50. So null read. How do you not include Omnis case on StriX as active scumhunting? Your reasoning for StriX being town is I personally didnt like his requests.. BUT.. in newbie 33 there were other townies who voiced the same requests StriX.. (I am referring to medic to my marine Spag)... so I gave StriX some dispensation (based on my past experiences). So you think his play is bad and you let it go because this is a newbie game? I could understand this if your townread on StriX was something more than giving him some dispensation. (7) Interesting. The justification is quite weak to remove the vote.. He has contributed? big whoop, this is a piss poor attempt to move onto another target. You are admitting here your actual vote justification was weak, or even just sheeping. Again, how does that help town win? You never post your write-up either... I am on the thread 3-4hrs later, and its not there, what we get is a summary. Your justification for removing your suspicions from Mocsta are even weaker. You only say I am stuck with you. I don't think my case had confirmation bias (unfortunately only Corazon has commented). The problem is, on a re-read, and considering content since the case.. I do find some material to be incredibly town motivated. Even if I ask you do not provide more reasonings for letting down your suspicions on him. (9) The vote on StriX. Starts off copy/pasting my comments. Goes back into policy lynch talking.. Seriosly Omni... future games you roll as town, you need to let it go man.... Justification regarding StriX->zarepath is weak, but passable as a town motivation. Then finishes off with more policy talk. I assumed he realised the justification for the vote was weak, so decided to spruce it up with some policy justification. While Omni may quote yuor comments, you never say that you are waiting for StriX to contribute a big post. And Omni does not talk policy in his case, he is accusing StriX of just talking policy. Not to mention posting your case 1 hour before the deadline, even if, as you state yourself, you had your scumread atleast 10 hours beforehand. Your case on TeMiL seems like an excuse not to post a real case. Then you can just say that a coach gave you the advise to pursue your read and that is why posted it so late. I urge everyone to go through Mocstas filter and re-evaluate, if his truly is town. His only big contributions are the cases on Omni and TeMiL, which reek of utter bullshit. Other than that he has just been leading the town to the direction he wants with his questions. What has he actually contributed since N1? Since D1? He has defended himself. I will post a bigger case later, but right now I need to leave for school. | ||
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jampidampi
Finland386 Posts
##Vote: Mocsta | ||
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
I would like people not to shut this case down because of the potential OMGUS. Analyse it as of it were coming from someone that was not being voted by Mocsta. A scum would know that there are much easier ways to divert pressure from themselves than OMGUSing the person with the most town momentum. Your case from a glance seems to have both some decent points and some logical limitations. I've got a lot on my plate and I'd like to finish what I was doing before addressing your post. Your justification for removing your suspicions from Mocsta are even weaker. You only say By 'Mocsta' do you means someone else? | ||
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
Since the night action I have completed Syl's, Jamp's, Zare's, TeMiL's and now Omni's filters. I am absolutely mentally exhausted, it's as if I've been thinking in circles the entire time. When I come back, I will be checking Mocsta's, which will also be damn exhausting. I am starting to get the feeling that either Syl, Mocsta, or TeMiL are scum. Why you might ask? Because I'm not getting scummy enough reads off anyone else. TeMiL is nearly a null read on account of putting forth absolutely nothing, the main reason he could be scum is because giving us a null to read can only have scummy or not intention behind it. Syl and Mocsta are now being read because I know that they are both capable of gaining town status as scum. Mocsta has to go with an all out town holocaust of activity in order to keep with his previous meta, which basically means his level of activity is a null-read. He does not have a choice as to whether he is active or not. Syl sits on the line of activity that I would call 'optimal scum activity'. He is not a lurker, and he has not need to lie or mislead town. Town has mislead themselves, so his near riskless play puts him in a perfect survival state where all he has to do is post analytic truths and town will detonate on their own. I really don't like having to resort to this kind of thinking, but everyone else is looking townish to me. Everyone seems to be acting within the grounds of what I'd expect from them if they were town. This thinking is reductionist, in that if everyone else is a town read, it is my null reads that draw my attention. This is some epic theory crafting BS, but I'm feeling rather hopeless towards our chance to hit scum otherwise. Mocsta will be the one I look at when I get back, then either Syl or TeMiL depending on what happens between now and then. If someone thinks I'm wrong (and if I'm wrong, I'm very, very wrong), polease correct me. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Thank you for bringing some life to this otherwise stagnant Day2. I have constantly cried out for activity... and there.... it was. FINALLY.. a case to read. Even better it was specially attentioned to me. How quaint of you  an eye for an eye, or in mafia games, a vote for a vote,. jampidampi, with permission to speak freely...this Day2, you were the source of my greatest enjoyment... unfortunately... all things must come to and end... you see... I began to read the case; and my feelings of enjoyment diminished. Morphed into its place.. was hollow disapointment. I don't know what was a bigger waste of time... your attempt at a case, or my pressing of the F5 key for a refresh? Since I am still a gentleman at heart; I will not try to embarass you with a point-by-point detail of your "attempt at a case". Rather, I will throw some pointers for you, that you can use for your "bigger case later", I suspect still on me of course. Let us call this case 2.0 Mocsta: jampidampi case2.0 tips for improvement @jampidampi For your next case, may I suggest you the following:
Thus to conclude, I welcome your case 2.0. It will present an opportunity for me to dissect your thinking, and present "self-contributed" evidence to town on your scum behaviour(s). | ||
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