|
I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it.
Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post.
This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni.
It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim.
|
Another thing to look at is the fact that as soon as Moc put up his analysis, the four following votes happened:
I switched from TeMiL to OE.
Spag switched from TeMiL to StriX (after my vote)
Sylencia did NOT switch to either OE or StriX; he was obviously paying attention to the thread (he kept posting), but felt no need to push the dial one way or the other even when a single vote for either of the two (StriX and OE) would have made a large difference. Instead he remained on a person who was almost assuredly not going to be lynched.
TeMiL votes for jampidampi for no discernible reason.
Spag's vote is a direct declaration for StriX over OE or jampidampi, and does not hold at all to his LAL policy he's been harping about all day. I will have to check the filter (chaotic two hours and I was in and out), but I don't recall his explanation for that.
Sylencia and TeMiL's votes, however, are indirect assurances of StriX being guilty over OE without having to say as much. They didn't reiterate strong cases for jampidampi or try to argue anyone else into also voting for jampidampi.
|
@Zare how does Spag's vote on StriX not follow his LAL policy? From your point of view was StriX not lurking? He had roughly as many posts as Jampi before he had to start defending himself. and made almost no contributions up to that point. The only other player who was worse than both of them was TeMiL.
|
@TeMiL Give us your thoughts on what happened during the first Day. What do you think about who got lynched? Why did you vote for Jampi? Who are your top scum reads? Why do you not post often? What do you think about the cases that have been made on people?
I'd like these answers before the end of N1. You've had more than enough time and clearly you read the thread and know when things are happening.
|
Just out of curiosity Spag, did these two posts have any impact on your reasoning?
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2013 04:03 cDgCorazon wrote:
If you're going to suspect me of being scum because we differ on our LAL thinking, you're going to have to come up with more than that.
I don't like LAL on D1 because it lets the scum get by with making mistakes and allows them to get a feel of the town without having to come under scrutiny themselves. If they know we are going to just vote off TeMiL because he is lurking, they can just sit there and bandwagon him because he is being lurky. You can find a scum through holes in their arguments, because they have to make a false argument look true in order to have the town see the scum making the accusation as town and the townie being accused as scum. While I do respect your vote because you have stated multiple times that you do not tolerate lurking, I differ in those feelings.
I probably should not have said "LAL D2", I really meant that TeMiL should be hammered for his lurking, just not now. We have other players who have acted scummy, why not make a case against them now and let a better scum go down D1 than just lynch a lurker D1 and if he comes up as scum it does not matter too much cause we won't find any information from the flip (due to the fact that TeMiL hasn't defended/attacked anyone), and we can pressure TeMiL later if he does not step up to the plate.
It's the same reason that you defended me last game: Most likely bad town/mafia, we should go after bigger targets. While I don't think I should be lynched for it (especially because you flipped town last game), I think that it would be curious that you would pursue me for defending TeMiL after this point(if you do so), because it's the same logic you used last game. On January 05 2013 08:00 cDgCorazon wrote:This is what confuses me Moc: Show nested quote +On January 05 2013 00:19 Mocsta wrote:
I am 100% sure he is town, but hes just too useless. My vote is sticking on him.
If he's your 100% town read, why are you voting for him? I thought the point of the game was to vote out scum? Even if he is useless in the scumhunt, his vote is still a big asset to us. Also, who knows whether he can step up his game in the coming days? You're saying that you aren't convinced that anyone else is scum, so why not vote for a no-lynch instead of voting him off? The difference between voting for TeMiL and voting for a no-lynch right now is that if we keep TeMiL around, we still have a vote, and we can stave off a possible lylo later by one day. Is that advantage that irrelevant to throw away? I don't think so.
|
On January 05 2013 10:31 Spaghetticus wrote:
Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX.
I am wondering about this. Just because it is too risky for both scum to vote for someone they know will flip green?
Because you immediately switched your vote to StiX only when it looked as though OE might get a bandwagon. It's theoretically possible that mafia only planned one vote on StiX, but someone had to switch to make sure it happened, and then use the argument that you just used so that if a mafia who voted for StiX flips red, the other mafia is safe.
I don't necessarily think that's what happened, but it seems a little big of step to assume there's only one in there. Food for thought, though.
|
Actually zere, my voting of either does not change anything, other than possibly Temil seeing only 2 targets on the board and darting one of them, which come to think of it, might've happened.
If I voted Strix, same result. If I voted OE, same result. If I had voted OE, there would be a very low chance of any votes shifting as well. Why? Most people already stated why they voted for one or the other. If Strix was scum, there would be wagoning over to the other side, but he was not, so the result would have ended up the same in either case.
I stated the reason why I stayed on jampi, but did not elaborate on it very much. Using the one instance where he gave town reads out (and said that he shouldn't have) as a case where he has spontaneously contributed is not a strong defense. It does not provide anything when the reads are also very weak. If it was something more concrete, then I would take the statement more seriously, but it wasn't. Also
On January 05 2013 03:08 jampidampi wrote:
My case on StriX may be "weak" but nothing to me suggest that a better case can made for now.
If he has such a weak case, why couldn't he have strengthened it any more by asking more questions, as he said he would in his first few posts. Instead, all that we get are answers to questions and accusations. It's not exactly good enough to say you have little to no information to go off, and leave it be and vote. It's slack, and it's scummy because it shows you don't care about the consequences of tunneling a player.
As for Temil, I have no idea what he is doing or saying, but my prediction remains at a dartboard randomised vote. This is an issue we need to consider for Day 2, because I do not want to be in the situation where we could have 1 pretty scummy guy + 1 not as scummy guy sitting on 3-3.
|
I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
|
@Zare
Good post.
I do have solid reasoning for my switches, but would prefer not to post them now if people can figure them out themselves. I invite the scrutiny (it's inevitable). I like the direction of this analysis. I want Syl pushed, and am very happy with this information as a foundation.
I will most likely post an explanation of my behaviour later, but this should not stop you analysing my motives now. Your switch doesn't seem particularly scummy to me, but I have reason for bias in that I believe I changed for similar reasons.
I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with.
If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL.
|
On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote:
I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
Could you elaborate on this move? What makes it similar and why is it scummy/bad. What town and scum motives can be attributed to this action? Do you realise just how little reasoning you are explaining when you just give us your conclusions?
|
On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote:
I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
How in the world was Zare's vote for you similar to mine in XXXIII? I voted for you in XXXIII because you were playing ridiculously irrational, changed your opinion on me multiple times, and voted out a townie even though you claimed I was "100% scum". You set yourself up to allow me to bandwagon easily on you without getting suspicion. I don't think this is even close to that situation.
|
There really isn't much to look into on Zare's move other than when I had Cora fingered as scum (and was right) and then backed off him, he used the first chance he had to try and vote for me and did in fact get me lynched using somebody else to make all their points. In this situation though, and as I haven't gone through every filter yet I can't really say it's very scummy. He had to put his vote somewhere so I'm stuck on how to take his vote. He gives no reasoning on it, and can now use Mocsta's case as his reason. very little contribution right up to the deadline although its fairly obvious he was here the entire time waiting to see how it would unfold means he didn't particularly care which of us (StriX or myself) got lynched. He didn't try to convince anybody else to vote for me. He just kept quiet and maybe hoped his vote would go unnoticed.
|
On January 05 2013 10:57 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote:
I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though. How in the world was Zare's vote for you similar to mine in XXXIII? I voted for you in XXXIII because you were playing ridiculously irrational, changed your opinion on me multiple times, and voted out a townie even though you claimed I was "100% scum". You set yourself up to allow me to bandwagon easily on you without getting suspicion. I don't think this is even close to that situation.
You kept saying null read null read and I did one thing and you placed your vote immediately. Even the coach I asked about it said it was a scum tell afterwards. I think it was even mentioned in the OBS QT. lol
|
On January 05 2013 11:01 OmniEulogy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2013 10:57 cDgCorazon wrote:On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote:
I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though. How in the world was Zare's vote for you similar to mine in XXXIII? I voted for you in XXXIII because you were playing ridiculously irrational, changed your opinion on me multiple times, and voted out a townie even though you claimed I was "100% scum". You set yourself up to allow me to bandwagon easily on you without getting suspicion. I don't think this is even close to that situation. You kept saying null read null read and I did one thing and you placed your vote immediately. Even the coach I asked about it said it was a scum tell afterwards. I think it was even mentioned in the OBS QT. lol
We can talk about this later, I disagree with that point. However, we need to focus on this game instead of being stuck in the past.
I'm just finishing up reading through things, and should have a bit of analysis soon.
|
On January 05 2013 10:47 OmniEulogy wrote:
I believe you guys are right about 1 scum on myself and StriX, however I believe its more likely for Jampi to be the scum on StriX and the remaining scum to be Mocsta or Zare. Zare made a similar move to Cora in NMM XXXIII when voting for me. I'm not sure if its scummy in this case or just bad play though.
Wait, wait, wait.
Who said 1 scum on StriX and 1 scum on YOU?
You are completely ignoring the two people who voted for jampi, and assuming that whoever voted for you is scum (a natural defensive posture, to be sure).
I don't know about this Cora stuff, but how is it bad play, let alone scummy, for me to have switched from TeMiL to you when presented with a strong amount of evidence by a strong pro-town contributor? If it were such a bad play to have switched off of TeMiL, why didn't YOU vote for TeMiL?
|
If OE had voted for TeMiL I would have 100% voted for him with Mocsta's case. I've denounced voting him out D1 and I would have seen it as going after the easy lynch when the pressure was on him.
Just for the record.
|
EBWOP: I've denounced voting TeMiL D1
|
I'm not ignoring the votes on Jampi. I'm ruling out Syl for the time being and I couldn't even begin to guess at TeMiL. Who else has votes on them other than those two? I know you'd like to believe Spag and myself are both scum but you are wrong. Cora is also a null read at the moment.
And I already said why I wouldn't vote for TeMiL. I made my case against StriX... do you really not care who a vote gets placed on that much? Nothing in what you have just said makes much sense. "I switched from TeMiL because I saw a chance to change to you, Why weren't YOU voting for TeMiL?" really? I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
|
On January 05 2013 10:36 OmniEulogy wrote:
@Zare how does Spag's vote on StriX not follow his LAL policy? From your point of view was StriX not lurking? He had roughly as many posts as Jampi before he had to start defending himself. and made almost no contributions up to that point. The only other player who was worse than both of them was TeMiL.
Which is the person he was voting for before switching. He's made some cryptic remarks about us decoding his reasoning for doing it, which really isn't to my taste; spit out your reasoning so we can get as much informed discussion done as possible before the day's over and mafia kills somebody. Especially with these time zone differences, we're basically having two separate shifts of discussion each day, and by delaying reasoning for anything you're preventing half of the town from participating. Especially consdiering that his switch vote, at the time, seemed made to ensure that StriX, who we now know is town, was lynched.
An explanation is definitely in order.
|
On January 05 2013 11:11 OmniEulogy wrote:
I've said multiple times a vote on TeMiL is wasted right now.
I am trying to discern why you say that switching my vote from TeMiL to you is bad play. I personally think it was fine, but I would like to hear your reasoning and not necessarily because I'm trying to out you as scum with your answer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
