EPT/in
Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII
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LAL: I think LAL the policy is stupid, but think LAL the conversation about whether to implement the LAL policy is great. My lynch decision making is flexible, but lurking constitutes a substantial markup on the probability of me lynching you. If you lurk, I will be on your case, and if your answers are not adequate I will put you on my to-lynch list. For lying I am the same. In the one game I've played I lied to hide that I was a cop. If you lie this draws massive attention, but it's important to look for motive, intention, and possible outcomes as well. - Cakepie - Kickstart - Fatchunk - Aquanim Have not posted yet (correct me if I'm wrong). Please disregard this list when considering my contribution, I post lists because they are useful and I have them anyway, not to appear useful. Keep your list hate to yourself  @Threesr You are about to come under massive amounts of pressure if you don't conform/comply with LAL attitudes (not a threat, just a prediction). Your position at the moment is too empathetic for a game where the most important tool is the noose. There will be times when people will lurk because they don't know what to do, and at these times, it's more likely that they don't know what to do because they are a more complex role (scum). If you are looking for certainty then you are almost certainly playing the wrong game XD To nubs in general: Please make an effort to keep your posts clear and informative, as a lot of us will be playing catchup. Do not be under the impression that (wordcount) = (town behaviour), others and myself will go through your filter and swathes of cruddy posts actually draw attention. Please keep the bickering impersonal, and have a great game :D My previous game (cop) (win) | ||
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The above post has my previous game posted at the bottom, it seems to blend in with the background so I thought I should draw attention to it so you did not think my intention was the inverse of this | ||
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In my last game the scum only had two players and there were no ways to interfere with the reliability of the cop power. I was 100% certain that any inspection I made was correct, which made for a bit of a lopsided game. The game ended quickly as one of the scum was trying to opt out of the game and was playing fast and loose. I can't really give great insights into cop play as I was actually correct in my initial read on both scum, which is something due more to luck than any skill on my part. | ||
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@Everyone How many games have you played? I want to compile another list, for personal use and otherwise. Even if you have already made this information available could you please do so once more so I don't need to trawl through starter fluff again? I am concerned about people pulling the nub card, and want to be able to assess the legitimacy of these claims easily. A massive mistake people were making last game was to assume that people were scum if they were inexperienced, which IMO is pretty silly in a nub game. | ||
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Things seem to have died down, I might head to the gym. We still have three people with no posts, if you are one of them I suggest you make a big and informative post after reading through everything that has been posted this game. Try and have questions for the players that have been posting, and develop a theory of who is town and scum. You are late to the part y but you can still be valuable and productive town. | ||
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On December 19 2012 14:06 FatChunk wrote: Policy on LAL is fine with me. Lying can only hurt town and I see no situations how this could be beneficial. Regarding lurkers, I think that it shouldn't be set in stone. From my point of view as a newbie, lurking isn't a quality of either mafia or town. It is equally as likely that a mafia/sk will actively post, lead discussions, blend in with town as it is that a townie will, and the same goes for lurkers. Ultimately its a judgement call based on quality of posts, and hopefully the majority will make the right call in that situation. That being said I think at this point in the game, there is very little information available, but I see value in scoping out a possible lynch on the first day. I think we should be looking for players who promote environments where Mafia thrive. While I'm a bit of a fence sitter in regard to lurkers, your assertion that mafia are equally likely to lurk as town causes me concern. Mafia, particularly new mafia, derive benefit from lurking if nobody picks them up on it. Town, new or otherwise, damage their chances of success if they do not contribute. While arguments can be made about the certainty of judgement, this game is not about certainties, and unless you can think of a good reason for a town to lurk that statistically counteracts the motivated tendency of a scum player, it is best to strongly pressure lurkers into action with your vote. | ||
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On December 19 2012 18:33 shz wrote: So if we need another wagon to jump, or not, to jump on: ##Vote: Mocsta Why? He/She did start a discussion, but I don't think that was all that useful, other than proving him being active and establish an alibi. Questions like the seafood one waste time and distract from substantial discussion. Also he/she is quite fast on "reading" someone as Town. Additionally he/she asked repeatedly about Mafia strategies. This is no way a waterproof case, but I think its a start and something we could work with. I'm not sure they meant to actually throw in your vote, these things normally start with a niggle of suspicion. | ||
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I will now try and compile a synopsis before bed. | ||
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Threesr: He seems to want to defend lurking, which is really weird. Only contribution to date is disputing LAL. Cakepie: One very solid post. Would like to see more, though I think you have contributed more than a few other people here. Orange: Very little substance so far. Fatchunk: One post. Kickstart: Two posts. Sylencia: Seems to want to contribute, but is struggling. Corazon: One post. Shz: low contribution, attempts to stimulate discussion have been weak. So we have a bit of a lurker problem. Some of you I think will have no problem increasing production, but some others seem reluctant. If all you have done is discuss LAL policy up to this point, you need to contribute more. Give us your scummy reads if you have any. I would put money on the day1 lynch being one of the names I just mentioned, please try and make sure it’s not you. At this moment in time my prediction is that either Corazon, Shz, or Threesr will get bandwagoned. | ||
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On December 19 2012 23:21 cakepie wrote: Spaghetticus: solid so far, no complaints. Would like to see you start getting on one of the cases or form one of your own. I am someone with a natural inclination to lurk. So far I'm on my 6th page of notes, and once I have more than a 30% read on anyone as scum I'll make a case. Until then I just trawl through the data and try to keep others on track. I'm reluctant to play aggressively until I have a foot to stand on. Personally I would like people to focus their efforts away from Mocsta and Cakepie, and focus almost exclusively on the lurkers. If they do happen to be scum then at this rate they will leave a trail and we will nail them day two. Anyone looking for brownie points should try and focus on contributing OC, that is, post a case on one of the many lurkers. I'll give you a hint: if you are one of the lurkers, you need to score brownie points by proving yourself more useful than your lurker brethren. Bandwagonning on lurkers that have already been called out does not count! | ||
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If Salensia is voting in 4-5 hours there is actually quite a bit of a rush to do some convincing. His vote, by being unchangeable, is the first 'real' ground to be taken towards a successful first day for town. Everything else seems like posing until last minute. | ||
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Can you tell us anything about the behaviour of any of the players in the current game? I'd also like to hear your reads if you have any. | ||
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Please leave the attitude at the door. By making things personal you are bringing out people’s emotions, when what we need is reason. When OMGUS votes are cast something is going wrong for town, the fact that you are causal to the OMGUS means your activity is hindering town. Please keep things civil and impersonal, and rather than address only comments made at you, please do your best to develop cases that are not immediate to your survival. If you contribute to town, you will be valued and your chances of getting lynched go down, more so than the knee-jerk slinging of mud has got you by far. Also, with your votes, you are flipping around so much that any case you do make seems like only a distraction until some new and shiny muckup catches your eye. If your vote is just a means of applying pressure (which my town hypothesis of you would indicate), then it’s better for you to stick to a person and pressure the shit out of them, than to switch willy-nilly, as people start to disregard your vote, knowing it will soon change. | ||
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Chromatically I strongly disagree, I think the approach of Shz is great. I disagree with his conclusions, but the approach is immensely valuable, and I will likely be voting in line with this approach. I've said it twice and I'll say it again, this is not a game of certainty, and our first lynch is more likely to come up town. If anyone is having confidence in their reads of over 40% they are either prodigal or misguided. We should not only expect a town lynch, we should prepare for one. All this posturing is setting up for day two when the real game begins. | ||
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Any and all of your assertions that head/scum hunting is bad are wrong. It is cool that you have struck out to find your own understanding of the game, but at this point we really need some information, and the only way to get that is scumhunting. There are plenty of resources on this site that will tell you why scumhunting is protown, I shouldn’t need to convince you by way of this thread. You have made several slips that could be construed as scum behaviour. I do discount this evidence entirely as I do not believe Freudian slips to be of much substance. While it is unfortunate for you (and town if you are town) that this has happened, as some people are easily swayed by this type of evidence, I implore you to not let it affect your utility to the town by causing you to go defence mode. Rather, pick your best read, and stick to them like a limpet. Also proof read your posts just to make sure it doesn’t happen again. What I told Threest in regard to OMGUS is equally relevant to you if not more, as (don’t quote me on this) your OMGUS was more explicit. Your vote is not a bargaining chip, it is a tool for pressuring and lynching. Your idea that lynching useless town is better than lynching useful town does hold some merit, but honestly it shouldn’t influence the equation that much. I just finished reading your filter and your posts are all stuck in the past addressing Threesr, please bring some more up to date content to the table. | ||
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Your contribution has been almost entirely limited to the Threesr/Corazon debacle. This is not an untapped vein to begin with, regardless of where your vote lies, please contribute elsewhere. You mentioned being suspicious of FC? | ||
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Do you still believe it is not beneficial for mafia to lurk? You shouldn’t, as you’d be wrong. As I have done before, I would point you to the resources available on this topic on this very forum. Lurking bad. Speaking of which, you still only have a one page filter. Admittedly my filter is only two pages, but your one page only has 1-2 posts of any substance. Step up if you’re town, continue to stagnate if you’re scum. | ||
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I have not yet read your filter yet but you need to step up now as you have very little time left before you need to vote. You are actually a mildly scummy read for me in that the only real information I have on you is that you have claimed a legitimate reason to lurk. You will need to put a lot of effort in if you want your words to stay strong in your absence. | ||
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I'm afraid I didn't make myself clear, though you were you for an update anyway XD I asked you because you've played the most games, how are the players in the current game acting in comparison to when you've played with them before? I assume you've run into at least one in your travels? | ||
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Your most recent post about lynch benefits is IMO your first redeeming post, but it's a goldie. Two or three more posts like that and I'll take you off my to-lynch list. | ||
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I have absolutely zero problem currently with the way you conduct yourself. Your approach is direct, and simple. I begin to suspect they are a little forced, as I can't imagine anyone that is this selective in the data they choose to interpret wanting to play a ridiculously complex game like mafia, but for now you serve a purpose (that sounds more cold than I mean it ). I would normally brush your commentary aside, but I feel that while I have been very active, I have given next to nothing on my actual perspective. So that you have a standard to later judge my actions by, I will respond. "I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum." Assuming you are town, you should start the game with a neutral 25% suspicion of everyone (you are the 13th player). Through day one, people will pave the way with false bravado and bluster, but ultimately, day one only serves to identify the people you are playing with. I now have a feel for your styles, an have limited information about what you can and cannot do without bringing the scumhunt to your door. There is incredibly little actually being done, and evidence is inconclusive. I admit, I don't know the actual statistics, but I assume the chances of lynching scum on day one is 25% or less. I believe the inputs for this equation are actually very complex, but I'll try and simplify and communicate the little I do understand. You posit that 'good' town can find scum d1. This is true, and that should be a focus, but this is unlikely to happen because: 1) - Good scum are approximately equally as abundant good town. For every master inspector there is an escape artist. Your argument from town competency is counteracted. 2) - The scum are manipulating our vote. Three informed votes have a lot of sway in the uninformed majority. As I hope to have adequately expressed above, it is actually incredibly optimistic to expect a day one scum lynch. On top of this, any scum lynches could be the result of an early bus, which leaves the scum with all the cards. I expect the number of successful scum lynches that do not involve some more advanced mafia play are even less than the 20-25% mentioned earlier. Mafia, much like starcraft, is a game with phases. I play macrozerg, I win with broodlord infestor. Trying to 6pool out a win on day one is not my style. | ||
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The information is there for the reading. Please don't surrender if you are town, the voting is inconclusive. People have been pressuring with their votes all day, the only difference here is that they all decided to do it to the same person. Sheeping this hard this early is crazy and almost certainly scum manipulation. Despite your play being scummy, I would prefer someone else get the lynch just so that the sheeple will stop being so lazy and keep making cases. That a supposed majority have settled on one person this early is IMO retarded, people need to throw down the hivemind mentality. | ||
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I would have preferred to write a case on someone but I think it's more important at this moment to get town back to actively scum hunting. | ||
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I conduct this defence with the caveat that I don’t actually think Corazon is innocent. I have a scum read on him, though I lack the confidence some of you display. My reasons for the defence will be explained shortly. I acknowledge that this could be construed as an attempt to sew confusion, to obtain a no-lynch, or to defend a scum buddy. I am faced with the option of either submitting this defence which I believe will benefit the town, or sit here and let a suboptimal state of play for town continue. I choose the former because I believe my position as town is strong enough to attempt something like this without having the bandwagon come knocking, I hope I am right. I admit that Corazon is a decent lynch target. He has been selective with input, and has played the survival game more than the town game. He also claimed nub status, OMGUSed Aquanim, has questioned the use of pressure voting, has focussed in on the next biggest target (Threesr), shown that he actively aims for a no-lynch, AND HAS ADMITTED HE IS MAFIA. Now, we have five competing hypotheses: 1) Corazon is good town. 2) Corazon is bad town. 3) Corazon is good mafia. 4) Corazon is bad mafia. 5) Corazon is a serial killer. I think (and no offense intended), that we can rule out options one and three. There are more effective ways to hunt scum, and more effective ways to troll this game to pieces. I also rule out the possibility of SK due to it being unlikely, and not being in our best interest to look for SK over scum. That leaves options two and four: bad town or bad scum. I’m sorry Corazon, but you have not applied yourself to the same extent that some others have, you are behind due to your inadequate understanding of the meta coming in. So we now have two competing hypotheses. Of the evidence I have mentioned earlier, the following can easily be interpreted for both a bad town and bad scum perspective: - Claimed nub status - OMGUSed Aquanim - Misunderstood the value of pressure voting - Got caught in a shit flinging fight with the other bottom dweller - Aiming for a no-lynch He is a noob, this is his first game, these behaviours are to be expected, and he is not alone in demonstrating them. His demeanour in itself does lead be to a mild scum read, but I have other reads that are just as salient if not more so. This leads to the catalyst for the current bandwagon situation: the slip. Do I think it means something? Maybe, I’d be impressed at this betrayal of the cognitions if it were. How much does this make him mafia? Not much. The only reason I’d jump on this case over others is if I was looking for an easy way out or I was scum. My problem with the slip evidence is that it is not nearly as powerful as people think it is. I honestly don’t know much about Freudian parapraxis despite studying psychology, but I do know they are frequently used by cognitive misers to sling mud. People want the case to fall into their laps, and I am strongly opposed to such an unthinking outcome. The amount of information being transmitted at any one time in the brain is phenomenal, and the workings are often counterintuitive. “BUT SPAG HE SAID HE WAS SCUM… HE BLOODY WELL SAID IT FFS!” Miscognitions such as the current one are more likely to happen when someone is comfortable and lazy than is they are intensely monitoring their actions. Do you agree? Well then is this slip not evidence of his innocence? Seriously, if I were scum I’d bloody spell check. Need more evidence? On December 20 2012 09:29 OmniEulogy wrote: ##Vote: cDgCorazon He slipped up so badly I can't believe it was a mistake. This slip by OmniEulogy also makes some sort of confangled sense… He believes that Corazon deliberately slipped in order to… err… kick my arse into launching this very defence? Thereby extending my protection over this seemingly scrabbly noob? No. It does not make sense for someone to think that, and thus we can dismiss the potential for this slip to mean anything more than a slip of the tongue. Corazon’s slip of course doesn’t have such a conclusive explanation, but considering the likelihood of it not being the perfect case (where he accidentally confesses), the disputed evidence shouldn’t count for much. I upped my estimate of his guilt up 2%, from the 26% I had written previously. I believe this estimate is more than reasonable. “BUT SPAG, YOU SAID YOU THOUGHT HE WAS SCUMMY, WHY YOU DEFEND HIM YOU NOOBSCUMLOL?” Because of three reasons: 1) By locking in our votes this early we are wasting time in day one. This reason would apply to if we voted this early for any player, even if they were my top read. This time could be used generating information for day two by pressuring other players. When the time for lynching comes, from this perspective I would gladly bandwagon the shit out of Corazon. 2) This one is more complex. Basically, this reason hinges on me being correct in my assumption that town are lynched day one 75-80% of the time. This assumption is open to dispute, so if you disagree, please, just find the numbers (ICBF). If the initial lynch is so unlikely to be successful, would it not be smart to change our vote from what we have been led to through the influence of the mafia. This actually comes surprisingly close to my beloved Monty Hall problem (look it up on Wikipedia if you haven’t heard of it). 3) The fact that there is almost zero effort by anyone to change the subject of our lynchery screams silently as to the lack of frustration expressed by covert scum. By lynching this early with no resistance, not only are we denying ourselves the opportunity to collect more data for day two, we are almost certainly doing the scum’s jobs for them. This third argument, which I just thought of as I was typing my second, has actually changed my perspective of Corazon to the most probable towny here bar none. There is no trio of scum here skilled enough to resist tampering with the lynch of their scum buddy, and if there is we’ve almost certainly lost. In conclusion; assuming your opponent is bad enough to hand you the kryptonite when their assumed disposition (caution) would incline them to do otherwise is foolishness. The majority of Corazon’s behaviour is equally plausible in a bad-town hypothesis, and can pretty much be discarded. We should not lock in votes this early as it discourages pro-town behaviour. If my assumptions are to be believed, the first target we are lead to is almost certainly not going to be scum, and therefore we should take a stab at a second case. Finally, the fact that I am the only one sticking up for this guy tells me that he is not scum, as a bussing at this level is unlikely. I want responses particularly from those people voting for him. I also want activity that is centered around someone other than Corazon and Threesr. It is that are avoiding the dispute that you need to look for. | ||
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@Mocsta My read on Threesr mirror's Kickstart's, though I by no means condone Kickstart's lurking (still one page filter!?). The battle between Threesr and Conazon reminds me of my only other game. Both Kush and WeeTee were conspicuously weak players and everyone was gunning them down. I launched a defense similar to the one I just threw out, and while WeeTee got lynched (innocent), Kush (also innocent) managed to stay alive and we had scum gg after the second night. People that are new read too far into other noob's actions, it's a complex element that people in higher level games don't need to worry about as much. While I am not saying that there is absolutely zero chance of these players being scum, I think that the information available points to them just being bad town. With Threesr, it's the fact he's been modkilled for lurking that gives me the feeling his obnoxious internet persona is not a skilfully crafted scumshield. On top of me actually thinking neither of them scum, I also think it's best for the town if we talk about other people regardless of their level of guilt, as if either of them is scum they are almost certainly a weak one, and not likely to stay off our radar for long. We waste time talking about points that have already been said, both players have been drilled to death. My inclination is to believe that the lurkers hold at least 1-2 mafia, as they have had no reason to step up because Threesr and Corazon have been taking all the heat. By being complacent and lazily voting for the conspicuous, we have let too many people fade into the background. | ||
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My contribution: My first issue is that you say I have done nothing useful. This is false. My contribution is substantial, you have just turned a blind eye to the benefits the town has wrought. I have not accused a single soul, and for good reason. People that are pressured say stupid things, that are misinterpreted by an overeager inquisition. I am more interested in observing the flow of the game until I feel I can make a solid case that will actually change minds, than in beating a horse beyond death. In Mafia there is always going to be people that pressure, and people that don't. The people that don't are seen as lurkers, but I would draw an exception for myself. I have contributed an enormous amount of brain power to this game, though I guess my approach is not as straightforward as yours. I play support. I am the medivac to your marine. I try to keep the unbridled enthusiasm of Newb Town from bandwagonning themselves to death by deception. I try to keep people active without making them defensive (see how that worked out for Threesr and Corazon?). This is the job I set myself in the absence of actual cases. I was assuming that if my performance was unsatisfactory I would be given a warning before getting hard cased, but this works for me too, your case will give everyone the measure of both me and you, so no hard feelings. My Lectures serve to try and keep the town machine running smoothely, and for people to learn. I guess I’m coaching a little, but it’s not as if I’ve addressed any issues that weren’t pertinent to the current game. I like to think I’ve done more scumhunting by calling others to do so, but of course, that BS won’t fly when trying to convince someone else of this. Basically 1) I believe by moving people to action I am effectively scum hunting 2) Up until now I saw no reason to try to appear more town I am more than capable of throwing weak case after weak case at someone, but I don’t like producing weak cases and avoid it if possible. I enjoy the respect I get as someone that offers genuine insight, and there have been multiple examples of people misconstruing these weak attacks as scum play. I understand they are not scummy, but I still do not want to besmirch my good name by offering up anything I don’t actually believe, and don’t expect you to believe. Basically, I saw no reason to change the playstyle I am comfortable with so I didn’t. Such an absence of scumhunting is conspicuous, and as I said before, I knew that I wasn’t actively scumhunting. I did however, underestimate the upset it would cause when someone realised for real. My meta: When you point to my activity in my previous game, I played different because I was against different people. In particular, Shady Sands was being both a lead town and an illogical player. He ended up being mafia, it was an easy pickup. His strategy was aggressive, and I needed to shut him down before he got a handle on town. In this game there is no such threat that I can see, and so I have not acted in the same way. I have up until this point been afforded the respect of a semiconfirmed town, and everything has run smoothly. I expect people will be hammering me for reads now, this is also okay. Lists: I use lists for my memory, I am fond of them but my friend that plays mafia think they are bad as they are a scum tell. When I tell people to ignore the list, I am telling you that my contribution will be substantial with or without the lists. People see others making lists and have heard this is a scum tell so they assume that the people making lists are scum. The reason it is a scum tell is that people use it to hide their inactivity, which was not my intent and has not been the outcome. You do not have a leg to stand on in this regard. Rebuke of Mocsta's Early Town Tells: He was potentially misleading town, and setting himself up to take control. I stopped him the same way I did SS, though I did not make a case out of it because there wasn't one. Theory of Town and Scum: I have not stated my thoughts but that does not mean I haven't devoted a lot of time developing them. I'm confirming with a large degree of confidence that neither Threesr nor Corazon are scum. This degree of confidence is a big deal for a meticulous SOAB like me. I've determined that Chromatiacally, Aquinim, Cakepie, and Mocsta will need to be dealt with later rather than now if they happen to be scum. That's narrowed the list of lynchable candidates down to six for me, this is no small analysis! Your assertion that I have not developed any theory is BS. Rather than flaunt every thought that tickles my ol' brain I know my understanding will only get better with time, and voting now is pretentious or whimsical. Asking Kickstart for meta reads: You say this wasn’t useful. Surely you could see the potential of such a move? I am lighting a fire under a lurker, and attempting to mine a new vein of data. As far as post efficiency goes you can’t fault me on this. “So Spag thinks that the best way to get town back to scumhunting is to defend someone under pressure, not make a case himself? Words fail me.” In this particular instance this is exactly what I thought. I don’t have any really solid cases, I am still narrowing down suspects. Any case I would post at that point would likely fall on deaf ears and I really believed I could benefit town by taking pressure off of the obvious targets and spreading the suspicion around. "Spag's whole "I'm defending Corazon but still happy to vote for him" BS is a classic scum move too - keeping his options open for new developments so he doesn't have to contradict himself later. I'm not saying that town would never do this, but it's pretty damn scummy." I am no longer happy to vote for Corazon which I believe I expressed in the same post. Through writing the post I came to the conclusion that he is the towniest person here, and I will stand by that statement. I am sorry I did not go back through and edit for consistency, I was tired after doing a LOT of legwork for this game. You’re welcome. If I were scum I would likely push my way through the pain barrier and put on the façade of scum-hunting in order to fit in with town. I am not above pretending to be productive if I roll scum and that’s in my job description. Do I draw an enormous double standard? Definitely. Do I contribute to town in every other way I can think of, above and beyond the sum contribution of most players? Absolutely. Being active but not scum-hunting reeks of incompetence if you are a mafia. It usually indicated incompetence in a townie too. I am not incompetent. Your logic is simple and effective, much like Chrom’s, but I function in a different way to you, and you have to admit that a scum Spag also does not make sense with your predefined expectations. A scum Spag would do everything in his power to appear useful while hindering town. I have gone out of my way to help town in ways that are not directly measurable. Have I even tried to sway the vote of anyone other than away from Threesr and Corazon? I have only tried to optimise town as a whole at the expense of personal survivability. Please people, go through everything said against me and give thoughts on what I haven't adequately explained. I need hide nothing. If you want reads I'll give you the best I have on those you ask. I'm up for two more hours before going to bed. I'll need to get up earlier than normal to be present for or near the lynching. I have a commitment but I'm not sure exactly whether it will infringe on mafia. | ||
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Note: this is not how I will play my next scum game. This is what I would have done this game if I had rolled scum. | ||
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Someone making an explicit display of jumping through hoops to improve townplay is not a scumtell. Someone jumping through hoops to save anyone is not a scumtell fullstop. It is a bold scum that stands up for a buddy knowing fullwell that if things go wrong, they have not just sacrificed their worst member, two of their total members, leaving their last brother alone vs oh so many town. I honestly find the rate at which you bandwagon alarming. That is either lazy town behaviour or scum behaviour IMO. You have just gone up in my reads. I am not OMGUSing you, other criticisms/votes have been reasoned, and so I have not retaliated. Yours are not. You write almost with a sigh of relief as if this new wagon solved a problem for you. - You realised you were not on my 'lynch later' list - You were having difficulty with the Corazon scenario because either he is mafia (which I doubt), or one of your scummy friends or yourself had invested too deeply in his lynching. - You insult my competency in order to lower influence of my words - It's interesting that you hold a standard of "lynch later" for other active players, but hold no such thing for me. I have also been forced to talk at length and will be forced to slip if I continue at this rate. I have given you very good reasons why I think both Threesr and Corazon are town. If you can't respond to this reasoning, I will assume you did not give them adequate time and would ask you to go read them again. At no point did I say I believe Corazon to be a skilled Town player. You seem to be playing this game at a very simple level and I can't say I don't believe your rash input is not tactically motivated. You are now my top read. ##FoS: OmniEulogy I will be trawling through your filter tomorrow. | ||
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To play devils advocate for Theesr on his stance on lurkers. I could see scum using LAL to their advantage and making us waste most of D1 while they play it safe and then bandwagon a lurker, we lynch said lurker he turns up to be town and if things have really gone poorly we learn nothing and scum comes out ahead of us on D1. I agree with Kickstart entirely when he says we should push scum reads over policy lynches. Truthfully I'm more worried about anybody who thinks we should lynch lurkers without second thought. While I actually liked the last part and even took a note in the satisfactory column, Omni does little here but say a bunch of safe stuff. He came across as a little bold when he proclaimed his disapproval of thoughtless lynching, but in retrospect this is actually a very safe move. (points finger at Threesr and Corazon) Another safe play. These guys were destined to get it. I predicted the shitstorm (though admittedly I named Shz as well), if the info was available to me it was available to Omni. Targeting the weaker town is a move that a scum naturally does whether they are new or not. What would you do if you were scum? If he latched onto Corazon because he realized he would be extremely easy to put him under suspicion. (followed by Corazon actually stating he's Mafia) I can't really see Corazon being town but if he is and has just made every mistake he could then my reason behind Theesr being shitty town would disappear and he would become my #1 scum read instead of #1 shitty town See how if Corazon comes up innocent (which I think he will) then Omni has set the stage to move onto the next easiest player. Even if these players were scum they would pose very little threat. This is positioning for an incredibly strong day three for the mafia, leaving 2-3 strong players, a bunch of lurkers, and zero leads. Also Chunk is the only one who has tried to defend Corazon but hasn't come completely out and said he thinks he's innocent, just that with ALL the evidence he still can't vote for him? I'm going to stick with Corazon as my #1 scum read but Chunk seems suspicious just based on that to me. More bagging on the lowest players. The big three are common knowledge and a safe sell at the point of writing the above quote. Omni continues to say absolutely nothing at all risky. He is waiting for things to be safe and then stating the obvious. He openly displays all the signs of posing bluster I resent to demonstrate myself. The thing is we don't know if SK is even in the game. If he is Mocsta could very well be the SK and just trying to get along with everybody and do his best to scumhunt to curve suspicion, I could be the SK for pushing my idea for a lynch on you, shz could be the SK for generating reasons for why we should lynch multiple people. This early it is way too hard to tell how a 3rd party would play. You've given us the most reads as scum out of everybody from my point of view, and as we've discussed right now we have the most to gain from your lynch. This is actually the one decent thing I've heard from him all game. I endorse this message. If anybody can clearly give us a way to gain more information while at the same time getting rid of suspicion of Corazon I am all for it. I don't want to lynch somebody who could be town just because we all tunnel him. Let's try and get some information from other lurkers. What do they think of the current situation ect. See this? This is someone that has the gall to ask for someone to do the very thing I have been doing, then nails me for it (but only after someone else does... can't be too safe). You have good points Spaghetticus but it doesn't really change my mind. People did come to his defense and tried to counter by voting for Threesr. Corazon started off the game saying he hoped D1 would be quiet and peaceful and no real information should come out during it which also seems a little scummy as everybody else started off hoping for some good conversation and to build up leads. Not wait for N1/D2 where we lose somebody and have no information about why they die. The fact that he's new CAN explain these things but I refuse to believe he is dumb. I think he thought it out and tried to come across as reasonable. I've already said I want to start going after the lurkers with our remaining time D1 and if we find something that removes Corazon from suspicion so be it. My vote is not locked yet it is just on the person I find most likely to be scum. I don't think he's past the point of no return either. I believe the vote count is 5 for Corazon and 3 for Threesr at the moment. and as I said Threesr would be my #2 if it weren't for the fact that it wouldn't make any sense for both him and Corazon to be scum. I'd like Corazon to tell us his top scum reads, and why they seem to be. I'd also like to note to Spaghetticus and everybody else that if you are looking for more people who came to Corazon's defense, Orangeremi tried to make a case of why Corazon wasn't scum and went back to lurking. I'd like to actually hear why Orangeremi refused to give us an idea of who his top scum reads were and why he didn't actually say why Corazon wasn't acting scummy. The fact that he then put out the same three names for his top scum reads that everybody else had and then went into hiding again is also suspicious. In Orangeremi's own words "Instead of looking for scum players, they would be making unjustified claims hoping others hop wagon in an attempt to get an innocent player lynched." and then "Otherwise, I have a slight suspicion of Sylencia that is based solely on a hunch and little to no evidence." based on that... ##FOS Orangeremi This defense of his vote almost seems like he's committing to a lynch, until you realise he was just waiting for a better lynch for scum to present itself. Yes I believe I'm a bigger prize than Corazon's entirely compromised town play, because I have a better position, and because I play more like a blue role would (less aggression). I was ready to tunnel Corazon until your horrid defense to Aqua's case. 100% believe he is scum. Doesn't mean I'm not going to look for other scum though. My defense was not horrid. I take offense. and if by bandwagon you mean make the case and stick with it for 30~ hours while continuing to bring up new material that hasn't been said. Yup total bandwagon. I ignore the original vote on him as a way to gauge how he reacts and gets conversation started. He slips - argues with Threesr and then I make the 3rd vote on him (2nd with evidence) and push for others to also vote and put pressure on him. On a person which the zeitgeist favours as a bandwagon. I don't care how long you spent blustering at the obvious pickups of non-town behaviour. The guy's level of play was inadequate and the case made itself. Do you really think his door would not have been knocked down without you? He was in for pressure, from you or otherwise. You wasted your time while pretending to contribute. Scummy. I don't think I have to play this game at a higher level than simple. It establishes me as town, helps in scum hunts and I give my input about how people are acting and how I feel about them. Why would I try to be more complex than that in my first game? I'd just confuse people and myself. "I don't know if I'm doing the right thing, so I will assume that I am and not try to improve my play, as playing dumb will convince people I'm town." I am actually genuinely impressed with your expression here, regardless of your alignment. The problem I have is that you are pushing to lynch me and my two best town reads because of your failure to look deeper. Try harder. When you address me or speak of me in any way, please refrain from throwing emotional garbage about. It makes me like you more if you don't. Tell me what's wrong with what I said, not how wrong it is. Words without reason are meaningless fluff, or peripheral associative priming depending on who the listener is. A townie should have logic behind his claims. | ||
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On December 20 2012 23:16 threesr wrote: So Orangeremi has contributed absolutely nothing for the entire game. Now he may not even make a vote today and hes had a ridiculous amount of time in this game to make a decision. wtf I believe I tried to address his no-lynch attitude earlier but I got no response and then subsequently gunned down for it. Maybe I should have followed that up? | ||
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How much time left until the lynch? Should I bother defending myself or should I make a final statement? | ||
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Reads: Town: - Corazon I have actually given reasons for why I think Corazon is the most town here. People thinking that I wanted to lynch him are mistaken. I started that post thinking that if worst comes to worst I'd lynch him as he wasn't that bad of a choice, but I finished that very same post with the conclusion he was the towniest person here. I'm not sure if the not lynching him was implied, but this was simply a failure to proof read and make my post consistent. When I role town (not a plea), I expect people to follow up all the people who misconstrued this faux pas to their advantage. - Threesr His play is not only entirely noobish, it is conspicuously so. This is not how scum play, there is no caution in this man. A scum would not take up a pro-lurker policy, that shit is crazy. When I'm gone I want these two to be assumed town. Their writing styles are such that if they have somehow juked me, they will slip up, so leave them alone. This is also directed at each other, stop sling mud, it's not helping either of you. Active town: - Cakepie I'm hoping this guy isn't scum because if he is I think town are doomed. Either way, I see very little way to make any accusation stick on him. You need to save cake for later when he has made more room to make slips. I was actually thinking I should make a case on him if he failed to be nightkilled. If I were scum I'd either be shooting Cake to keep myself safe, or making a play to set up a day two mislynch. - Mocsta I wish I had put more effort into keeping an eye on Mocsta. I figured he would not make a good case for day one so I left him be. Some of the things he says are a bot scummy, including the way he went to gobble up town cred at the start, and then backed off when he realised town was self-destructing. At least one person should attempt a case on Mocsta day two IMO, as at the moment he is a midget at limbo on the radar. I had him at 27% scum, but this statistic was from before I mentally flipped Threesr and Corazon as town. - Aquanim I expect Aquanim to come under considerable pressure when I flip town, as he should. I did not have any read on him before, though I am scared of the possibility he is scum and masterstroked me from full health to zero in one hit. - Chromatically Despite my best efforts to take notes and develop a good idea of everyone's post history, I still see Chrom and Aquanim as basically the same person. They were both mentally off limits until day two as their playstyles are aggressive and will lead to slips. Which leaves the lurkers and the scums. Scum - OmniEulogy I want this guy picked apart. He was somewhat background noise for me until he bandwagoned again, but this time on to me. I admit that when I look through his filter, I am somewhat motivated to see the worst, as when I did, everything went from background noise to OMG THIS GUYS IS SCUM. I already posted the beginnings of a case, centered around how he speaks a lot but says very little that isn't obvious or already said. For the record, he is claiming vanilla town like behaviour which is something I never did. Scummy behaviour that is made to look like towny behaviour is more scummy than scummy behaviour that makes no claim to being like town. I never hid the style of my contributions, OmniEulogy is trying hard to sell you turnips as apples. OmniEulogy's the third aggressive player in the game after Aquanim and Chrom, but managed to distinguish himself by only picking safe targets and having very little OC. Lurker/scum There are so many lurkedy perkers that I actually felt somewhat overwhelmed. I want these guys kicked in the arse. Their play is not acceptable, but they've been allowed to do it because of the epic bandwagonning. These people are at best useless town (worse than threesr or Corazon by far, as at least they contributed valuable discussion), and at worst free riding scum. The majority of your efforts should be focused on OmniEulogy and these guys. - Shz Has posted some points I liked, but the substance isn't there, and my liking your point is no standard by which to judge a post by (I liked the majority of mine). He's semi-active, but that needs to be full active. - Kickstart I am puzzled at this guy's inactivity. Apparently in other games he's been the life of the party? Going from mega contributor to nothing is a little too obvious for a scum tell, I expect real life circumstances are getting in the way? Either way, he needs to step up or step out. - Orangeremi Seems to be riding the town's momentum (not a good thing). His suspicion of FC is legitimate, but also an obvious call. Orangeremi you need to start making your own waves. - FatChunk Yet another lurker that has been able to get away with it... He is under a lot of suspicion from the general town, though no threat has actualised to date. I'd say OrangeRemi and FC are my next two biggest worries, as there is very little mitigation for their behaviour. They lurk because they can, which is bad town or moderate scum. - Sylencia Has given an excuse for little input, but is going to have to put in a LOT of effort to distinguish themselves if they want to not be lumped in with FC and ORem. | ||
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Because all of his play is explainable with a bad townie hypothesis, and quite frankly not as explainable with anything but a terrifyingly bad scum hypothesis. This makes me think he is a victim, much like Kushmaster and WeeTee in game one. The thing that confirms him in a way that nobody else is able to be confirmed, is that his lynch was almost entirely unchallenged. This you will realise when I role vanilla town. From my perspective, the only person who defended him was confirmed town (myself). Once I'm lynched, you'll realise that I am confirmed town so you can assume that no scum defended him whatsoever. I expect there to be 1-2 scum on his bandwagon, not all three. If for some reason two you catch two scum that voted for Corazon at this time, I believe you can safely confirm every other person that voted him as town. I think there was most likely one because more than one was unnecessary (seeming as the bandwagonning was so strong). Your point that the lynch did not end up going off too easy is meaningless. I intervened far above what was expected of me in order to save him. The vote changed because I changed the state of play massively (much to my dismay). For scum, they saw a better pickup and took it. For town, they saw someone that had obviously been participating in a high degree of self monitoring, assumed some sort of lopsided genius/idiot, and went to town on me (haha). I'm gonna feel like a right fool if he does role scum... | ||
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You think I don't have a point about you? Safe play? Scummy Making scum reads to appear town? expected of any scum or town (see what happens when I deviate from this norm?). Explaining why you made your decisions? The simplified version, which is exactly what you would do if you were scum. I am a high self monitoring player that does not pretend to be anything different. You are a high self monitoring player that does pretend to be something different (simple). At this moment in time my words are wind, because I am suspected scum. When I flip vanilla my words will find new force, as they are the reasoned words of confirmed town. You are going to have to up your game, seconding every opinion and stating the obvious is not enough. | ||
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I was tinkering with the extent to which one can be precise without losing town to WIFOM. I was about to start actually making cases, but you bum-rushed me so hard I was gone without a chance to adjust. Of course, if I was scum, your play would have been a crushing victory. IMO a solid play. | ||
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