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Chrono Trigger Mafia - Page 11

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Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 21:24 GMT
#2074
Could someone point me towards some town games that Sand has played in? Thanks.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 21:35 GMT
#2078
Fuck it I'll just post it now. From what I recall people saying this game, sand's meta is to be very involved when he's town. But just disregard that and take the case as is. I might add some meta analysis later, but I'm going to bed early tonight.
I am posting this case mainly to show people that there is a very strong argument to be had for Sand being scum, despite everyone just brushing it off as "lurker lynch votes"

Sandroba is scum.

First of, if you haven't read my case from D1 yet, please do so now:
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 23 2012 03:09 Clarity_nl wrote:
Sandroba. Why are people voting for this guy?

Show nested quote +
On November 22 2012 11:08 sandroba wrote:
@kita I was under that impression because your filter is rather short and I fail to find anything in there that provides your reads or opinions on subjects being discussed. When you came back you posted a generic post with several names in red including mine and no reasoning and still never commented on anything.


Let us work our way backwards in his filter, starting from this post, where he advocates against electing Kita because Kita has not provided his reads or opinions on subjects being discussed.

Show nested quote +
On November 22 2012 10:10 sandroba wrote:
On November 22 2012 04:05 syllogism wrote:
Sandroba: when you are back, I would like to know if you have reconsidered Dienosore at all based on new content, in addition to explaining what about clarity_nl's play you find suspect. Some kind of mafia reads would also be helpful. Also any thoughts regarding the current candidate situation?

I had clarity as scum, but I'm kinda torn on it right now after the marv/clarity exchange. I took a look at mario and it does look similar. Earlier he was pouncing with one-liners on weak stuff people posted and that tipped me off. And about Die, yeah I still think he is town. What makes you dissagree?


The first mention of any kind of read he has (remember, we're working backwards), it's on me, he found me scum but now he doesn't know. Null.
Why did he used to find me scum? Not sure, the only other mention of me is the reason he had to make the above post, that mention being this:
Show nested quote +
On November 21 2012 22:25 sandroba wrote:
I wont take clarity with me if I get elected. He smells funny.


So we never got to know why I was scum to him, but that's okay because he's no longer sure, right? I don't think so.
To me this seems like jumping on the (at the time) easy "lynch" I'd make. But then backing off because it was hard to pin me on something.

Next up, we have this:
Show nested quote +
On November 21 2012 22:50 sandroba wrote:
I wouldn't mind syllo being leader either and if I win I will give him veto power over the people I choose. I'm fairly certain he is town at this point.


I'm fairly certain he's town, is his entire read. Only when asked does he explain why.
Show nested quote +
On November 21 2012 22:55 sandroba wrote:
On November 21 2012 22:51 marvellosity wrote:
On November 21 2012 22:50 sandroba wrote:
I wouldn't mind syllo being leader either and if I win I will give him veto power over the people I choose. I'm fairly certain he is town at this point.


what distinguishes a town syllo from a scum syllo in your opinion?

He is way less conflict enticing / questions asking as scum and just chillax and agrees with people that are the right track. This game he says he will be lazy, but isn't and is activily doing shit left and right. So yeah.


This boils down to a meta read. If you take away the meta, all that is left is him saying: "He said he'd be lazy but he isn't"
Meta reads aren't always bad, of course, but it should never be the crux of your argument unless someone is WAY off their town meta.

Show nested quote +
On November 21 2012 18:26 sandroba wrote:
On November 21 2012 18:13 Keirathi wrote:
Syllogism/sandroba:

You guys have ignored us, but what do you think of Toads reasoning for me being scum? Do you think I'm scum?

What about Deinos 2 scum reads and 2 town reads? Agree or disagree with any of them?

I wouldn't put you as a town read, but I don't agree with toads case on you. I'll say nothing point to me one way or another so far. About deinos I agree on oats as I've said before. Not quite sure on acro still, I'd put him the same as you. GK and djo I'm slightly leaning town so far.


"I don't know, you're null. Here's a list of slight townreads with no explanation."
Moving further back.

Show nested quote +
On November 21 2012 17:52 sandroba wrote:
come'on look at the way he entered the thread. that's like as townie as it gets =P
either way you have your share bit of work to do to =P. I guess I'll know by day 2?


His very first strong read, yet somehow it is much earlier in the thread than the stuff covered above. This post is referring to Dieno.
There's not much reasoning to it, the only being that scum wouldn't enter into the game like that.
I think this is fair and not alignment indicative, but since we're pointing out all the reads I think it's only fair to point out his only strong read thus far.

This is also where the reads end, because we are in the early earlygame at this point. There is some setup speculation, which makes sense given we're in a heavily themed game.

My point to all of this, is this:
Sand has not had any strong reads, and the reads he has had have had bad or no reasoning.
He's is currently trying to get elected, and has had some backing.
Why are people not demanding stronger reads from him? Especially when he is demanding them from others?

Why is sand not working harder at making reads, when he is running for the election?

Wanting to get elected is not alignment indicative. His reads or logic isn't alignment indicative. Why does he not look/try to look townie when he is running for the election?

In my eyes, this makes him badly played scum or a third party role because a townie who is running for election would be trying harder to get elected, or at the very least to get strong reads out there.



In this case, I clearly show that Sand is not transparent. This in itself is fine, Syllo was not transparent and people voted for him. But note the very first quote in my case, he says Kita is not being transparent enough, not giving out enough reads etc.
After a grand total of 1 strong read, a read that many before him had made, he proclaims that others should be more transparent and share more reads.
Even if we accept that he is just being a hypocrit, after this post he still does not share reads or thoughts.

Sand comes out of the gate by saying he is running for the election, he is open, transparent and willing to listen to others:
On November 21 2012 11:17 sandroba wrote:
I hereby declare I want to lead you simpletons to victory. My party selection will be as following: I will choose 3 of the less known players who I read as town at the end of the day to compose the party. The reasoning is that this mechanic will greatly favor town in attempting to confirm players. This is better done for players less likely to get shot for 2 reasons: 1) They have less meta information available on them therefore harder to read. 2) Vets/Well known players are likely to get killed n1 if they are town, even more so given a successful mission, mitigating some of the advantage town might get. This serves to both preserve the good/known players and to keep the confirmed/likely town around longer.
I'd like everyone to chime in on this subject of party selection and help come to the optimum way of doing things.

Add to that a little confidence:
On November 21 2012 11:19 sandroba wrote:
I see that everyone went completely the opposite way of tackling this issue as I have so far. Of course I am right and you guys probably gave it no thought.


and Sand is looking to be really eager to play in this game and share ideas.
So how did he go from that, to this:
On November 23 2012 21:51 sandroba wrote:
Oh my it seems I'm the only person in the game that doesn't get to have a real life every so often. I spent the night at a girl's house ytd and only got home now. I thought I would give the thread a quick read before heading to bed (yes my sleep schedule is severely fucked up) and I see that suddenly I became the main wagon. Nice. Weekend is ahead and it will be extremelly busy and now I have to fight syllo induced mislynch just to prob face the same problem again the next day. Thx. I'll be here briefily if anyone want to interact, but I'm heading to bed.
I took 125 dmg and got roleblocked.

Now I don't know about you guys, but I read this as. "Fuck you all, I don't care, get a life, I'm gonna go back to lurking now"

A complete 180 in his play over the course of 48 hours. Why?
Well, we know it isn't because he desperately wanted to win the election, because in my D1 case I showed he didn't care about winning the election, especially if you take into account his absence the last 6 or so hours of D1.
I believe him choosing to run for election was an easy excuse to not scumhunt. I believe him having such enthusiasm early in the game was faked.
Faking enthusiasm doesn't generally last for long, as we can clearly see by Sand's changing behavior and activity.
Please try to take this point of view and notice how his entire game so far suddenly makes sense.

This next post just irks me:
On November 23 2012 22:07 sandroba wrote:
I am free to play, I'm posting more than the average person and I've contributed a lot. Mind you that 2 out of the 3 people syllo took with him I was planning on taking. I gave out a town read on syllo very early on.
As to your question, obviously, since I am town. He has been paranoid about my alignment a lot of times in the past (of the top of my head merc mini mafia and that huge 80 player game), but normally he reaches the correct conclusion soon enough.

His only contributions throughout the entire game has been the setup speculation at the very start. Now he claims that he was going to take two out of the three people that Syllo took. Somehow this gives him the credit? Or is he suggesting Syllo stole his idea? Regardless he is wrong and trying to paint himself as a helpful townie, now that he can't hide behind running for election anymore.
Sand has shown no interest in helping town out. The only things he has shown interest in are setup speculation and running for the election. He is scum.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 21:49 GMT
#2094
On November 24 2012 06:44 Hapahauli wrote:
@ nl_clarity

I'm not sold on Sandro or your 2nd case on him. Your 2nd case talks a lot about "faking enthusiasm," but his change in eagerness is explainable in many other ways as well. Also, I believe that him giving up the election at the end doesn't make sense with scum objectives:

Show nested quote +
Regarding Sandroba

Along similar lines as the read on GoodKarma, him completely abandoning his campaign and sheeping on Syllo doesn't make much sense from a scum perspective. Why guarentee a strong town player complete control over party selections? Makes no sense as scum. While his activity dipped down today, the day is still young, and I can't blame people for lack of activity on Thanksgiving.


Whaddy'a think?


I understand your argument when it comes to him giving up his campaign, but this can be explained in a couple of different ways. Some scummy some townie, most for either. My point is that his behavior this game has not made sense to me at all until I looked at it from this angle.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 21:51 GMT
#2095
On November 24 2012 06:48 Keirathi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2012 06:39 syllogism wrote:
But I'm not going to waste time on hypotheticals and I don't see why you are wasting time interrogating me when I'm about as confirmed town as one can be.

So, I was thinking about this more earlier. The reasons you gave for picking me for the party were pretty good if you are town. But if you're scum, you would have almost HAD to pick me. Dieno claimed that he was Frog, a 600AD character who increased the party's chance of success. Therefore, you basically HAD to pick him just because of that, even if you're scum (besides the fact that he has been playing very obviously with a townie mindset). So, if he had a high success modifier, and you were scum, then me claiming that I had a low success modifier would make me almost a guaranteed pick if you wanted any chance of actually making the event fail.

Now, granted, the more likely option is that you were town and just picking town reads. But I can't dismiss you as a scum possibility just yet after picking me.


Why would he have to pick you as town? I was rather confused that you were picked to be completely honest.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 21:54 GMT
#2098
On November 24 2012 06:53 Keirathi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2012 06:51 Clarity_nl wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:48 Keirathi wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:39 syllogism wrote:
But I'm not going to waste time on hypotheticals and I don't see why you are wasting time interrogating me when I'm about as confirmed town as one can be.

So, I was thinking about this more earlier. The reasons you gave for picking me for the party were pretty good if you are town. But if you're scum, you would have almost HAD to pick me. Dieno claimed that he was Frog, a 600AD character who increased the party's chance of success. Therefore, you basically HAD to pick him just because of that, even if you're scum (besides the fact that he has been playing very obviously with a townie mindset). So, if he had a high success modifier, and you were scum, then me claiming that I had a low success modifier would make me almost a guaranteed pick if you wanted any chance of actually making the event fail.

Now, granted, the more likely option is that you were town and just picking town reads. But I can't dismiss you as a scum possibility just yet after picking me.


Why would he have to pick you as town? I was rather confused that you were picked to be completely honest.

I didn't say he had to pick me if he was town. If he is scum, though, he basically HAD to pick me.


I misread, my mistake.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 22:01 GMT
#2106
On November 24 2012 06:56 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2012 06:49 Clarity_nl wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:44 Hapahauli wrote:
@ nl_clarity

I'm not sold on Sandro or your 2nd case on him. Your 2nd case talks a lot about "faking enthusiasm," but his change in eagerness is explainable in many other ways as well. Also, I believe that him giving up the election at the end doesn't make sense with scum objectives:

Regarding Sandroba

Along similar lines as the read on GoodKarma, him completely abandoning his campaign and sheeping on Syllo doesn't make much sense from a scum perspective. Why guarentee a strong town player complete control over party selections? Makes no sense as scum. While his activity dipped down today, the day is still young, and I can't blame people for lack of activity on Thanksgiving.


Whaddy'a think?


I understand your argument when it comes to him giving up his campaign, but this can be explained in a couple of different ways. Some scummy some townie, most for either. My point is that his behavior this game has not made sense to me at all until I looked at it from this angle.


Well I think his campaign-actions are more likely townie than the alternatives. Also, I don't think lynching someone for losing interest on D2, especially over the holidays, is a good idea. I really want to see more from Sandroba before I'd consider lynching him.


He didn't lose interest on D2, that's my point. He never had interest.
Notice how he opens with big well worded posts and slowly slips into smaller more insulting posts, can't fake enthusiasm for too long. He hides behind his election and once it starts gaining traction he stops, but doesn't replace it with anything.
I understand wanting to see more of him but he basically proclaimed he will be mainly lurking the entire weekend.

His campaign did not have any visible effort. Everyone but (maybe) third parties have a reason to run for election, but there are two scum motivations: 1) To appear active without having to make reads, 2) To actually get elected and make town fail the mission.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 22:10 GMT
#2110
On November 24 2012 07:07 TheChronicler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2012 06:59 Hopeless1der wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:46 TheChronicler wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:43 Hopeless1der wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:40 TheChronicler wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:24 Keirathi wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:21 TheChronicler wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:19 Keirathi wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:17 TheChronicler wrote:
I still like a Sandro lynch. My problem eith him is that I think he knows too much. He's also got the most people consolidated on him.

How the fuck does that make him scum?

It doesn't? Why read into it like that?

You were giving reasons for why you wanted to lynch him. Our goal is to lynch scum. Therefore the bolded part of your post is completely, 100% irrelevant. So why did you even say it?

No, I was giving reasons for a Sandro lynch. There's a difference there. It went
1) reason I think he's scum
2) reason I think he's still a good lynch candidate

you mean you'd lynch for reasons OTHER than being scum?
##Vote: TheChronicler

p.s. I've been skimming the thread, Chronicler is very scummy looking, I'll be back in 5ish hours to, you know, actually play the game instead of sitting by the sidelines.

You don't take other people's opinion into account when choosing who to lynch? This is really flimsy reasoning for voting me.

You're suggesting that the scummiest player is the one with the most votes. That's ludicrous and is a terrible way to determine who you want to lynch.


I don't think it's an unfair suggestion to say that the person with the most votes is the one who is currently thought of as most scummy. I didn't say he's scum because he has votes. I said he was a good candidate because a lot of people find him scummy and you can therefor lynch him. If your problem is that a Sandro lynch seems too easy then you need to say that. Right now you're misrepresenting what I'm saying and I have to wonder why.


There is so much wrong with this train of thought.

You're saying that because someone is easily lynchable this makes them scum. You're not supposed to be looking for scum you can lynch, you're just supposed to be looking for scum.

Looking for easily lynchable targets is scumlike behaviour.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 22:17 GMT
#2116
On November 24 2012 07:16 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2012 06:46 TheChronicler wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:43 Hopeless1der wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:40 TheChronicler wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:24 Keirathi wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:21 TheChronicler wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:19 Keirathi wrote:
On November 24 2012 06:17 TheChronicler wrote:
I still like a Sandro lynch. My problem eith him is that I think he knows too much. He's also got the most people consolidated on him.

How the fuck does that make him scum?

It doesn't? Why read into it like that?

You were giving reasons for why you wanted to lynch him. Our goal is to lynch scum. Therefore the bolded part of your post is completely, 100% irrelevant. So why did you even say it?

No, I was giving reasons for a Sandro lynch. There's a difference there. It went
1) reason I think he's scum
2) reason I think he's still a good lynch candidate

you mean you'd lynch for reasons OTHER than being scum?
##Vote: TheChronicler

p.s. I've been skimming the thread, Chronicler is very scummy looking, I'll be back in 5ish hours to, you know, actually play the game instead of sitting by the sidelines.

You don't take other people's opinion into account when choosing who to lynch? This is really flimsy reasoning for voting me.

It's plurality lynch and there's another 25 hours to go until the deadline, so: HELL NO.


Someone has to be the first. And if we all follow chronicler's logic all mafia has to do to win is be the first, and everyone should LOGICALLY sheep onto him because he's the easiest to lynch.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 22:18 GMT
#2118
On November 24 2012 07:17 Dienosore wrote:
Anyone else find it strange that Sandro hasn't actually accused anyone of being scummy? He's done about 10 different town reads, but no mafia reads.


Closest he came to calling someone scummy was me. Please note that even his townreads lack reasoning.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 22:25 GMT
#2124
@ TC

Yes. Consolidating is something you do later in the cycle, not early. We still have plenty of time, so if you are town spending your time finding scummy things that haven't been pointed out yet is way better than sheeping onto someone and thinking you've contributed.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 22:30 GMT
#2130
On November 24 2012 07:27 TheChronicler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2012 07:25 Clarity_nl wrote:
@ TC

Yes. Consolidating is something you do later in the cycle, not early. We still have plenty of time, so if you are town spending your time finding scummy things that haven't been pointed out yet is way better than sheeping onto someone and thinking you've contributed.


Almost like when I said Sandro knew too much and eKeir latched onto the end of my post trying to make me look scummy then disappeared.


You just told me something, I told you you were wrong, and you immediately agree and use my logic to make yourself look good?
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 22:35 GMT
#2132
On November 24 2012 07:32 TheChronicler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2012 07:30 Clarity_nl wrote:
On November 24 2012 07:27 TheChronicler wrote:
On November 24 2012 07:25 Clarity_nl wrote:
@ TC

Yes. Consolidating is something you do later in the cycle, not early. We still have plenty of time, so if you are town spending your time finding scummy things that haven't been pointed out yet is way better than sheeping onto someone and thinking you've contributed.


Almost like when I said Sandro knew too much and eKeir latched onto the end of my post trying to make me look scummy then disappeared.


You just told me something, I told you you were wrong, and you immediately agree and use my logic to make yourself look good?

Its me telling you to read my filter and see that I did go read Sandra's filter and point out why I thought he was scummy.


That's great. So are you agreeing with me that taking other people's vote into consideration early during the cycle is a bad idea?
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 23 2012 22:40 GMT
#2135
If I post anything in the next 6 hours, lynch me. Night all.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 24 2012 11:18 GMT
#2313
A claim would do nothing. We have to work under the assumptions that scum have safeclaims. It would only help scum (if he's somehow town)
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 24 2012 11:27 GMT
#2314
Sand if you think I'm warping your posts to fit my case somehow please show where I do this, thanks.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 24 2012 11:47 GMT
#2324
Eh, I don't like association cases before a flip. It is certainly possible, but a bit far fetched at this point.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 24 2012 14:22 GMT
#2365
I think the marv today is much more like marv than day 1. This can easily be explained (and he kinda did) by the fact that this is a heavily themed game and he's not as comfortable. Today is a lynch day, which makes it more comfortable.
So far there's no real reason to suspect marv, given that he backed the winning horse and he was one of the first to do so.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 24 2012 14:34 GMT
#2369
How is this relevant to the current game? Toad are you trying to make a meta read on marv without making an actual read?
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 24 2012 17:08 GMT
#2417
The strongest one.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
November 24 2012 17:11 GMT
#2419
Can someone other than marv confirm that Drazerk would be a coinflip at the point?
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
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