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Have you guys even noticed HeloKnight?
Where is he in any discussion? I don't recall him ever being here for something useful.
He pops in, gives his read on Oats, playing super ultra mega neutral.
When I call him out for it, He posts an original case on the easiest person: a lurker.
Says Munk-E isn't seeming so scummy, but still doesn't want to lynch Yamato.
That pretty much sums up his contribution to the thread. He's not actively in discussions. I fail to see him giving two shits about who is lynched, because he just kind of put the munk thing out there and let it stir. I've never seen him give a solid opinion of anyone else but the lurker and a safe interpretation of Oats. Doesn't seem like he cares or spends a good amount of time to benefit town.
FoS HeloKnight
@Jacob
What the fuck have you done this entire game besides posting semi-reads here and there. 80% of your filter is short snippets of nothingness.
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Yamato's case on Cheesecake and related stuff
Preface: Before starting to reading this thread today, I thought to myself it would be scummy if Yamato didn't use the knowledge of his alignment and argue based on that. If he's town he's the only town who knows the alignment of both main wagons. It would be really weird if he didn't use this knowledge to figure stuff out. A competent scum could of course realize this is how he would feel if he was townie, but not all scum will be able to think outside of his scum mindset.
Cliff notes: Obviously not a dead sure tell, but Yamato acts in accordance to how I think town Yamato would.
The main case: I don't find it very convincing. I've been thinking quite a bit about CCs actions around deadline. If we look at the two possible scenarios where CC is scum:
- Both CC and Yamato are scum: Obviously CCs switch to Munk could in that case be motivated by saving his scum buddy. But meh, I don't really buy it. Not only is it statistically unlikely, but there needs to be a lot of bussing going on right now. I'm not getting that feeling at all. Besides it's quite difficult to keep a high level of activity. All in all, this is a nothing I feel is worth considering right now.
- CC is scum, Yamato is town: This means it was a town/town wagon. I thought about this before reading CCs response and his response reflects my opinions. If it's a town/town wagon, what is there to gain from switching? He's painting a target on his back because he's still "responsible" for a town lynch and besides he's responsible while flip-floping. Perhaps town Yamato is a little bit too focused on thinking about how CC saved himself for being responsible of his mislynch, so i don't really think Yamato's argument makes him come off as scummy, but I don't see any incentives for scum CC to switch. CC might be levelling and try to look like a confused townie, but at best this argument is null.
Cliff notes: The case is weak.
Kick's reaction to the case and my comments on him: Kick, you're still incredibly focused on defending yourself. If you're townie, take a deep breath and start focusing on more important things (scum hunting). Your scum hunting is non-existant, which can be shown by you quoting that old ass "case" you made on Oats.
You're relying on logic, which is fine, but I don't see much of town mindset from you. I've played a lot of scum and in my first game I went completely unnoticed for a long while relying on plain logic. It's super fucking easy to stay logically consistant as scum. It's much more difficult to show a real townie mindset. You are also focusing a lot on pointing out weaknesses in others's cases: Oats', my case and Yamato's case on CC. I don't think doing this is anti-town, BUT it is also incredibly easy for scum to do. I know pointing out weaknesses in cases is so tempting to do as scum while making cases against innocent townies so much harder. It is easier to just point out bad play and logical inconcistencies, which it seems like you're focusing on doing mostly doing (aside from defending yourself).
Cliff notes: So if you're townie, use your town mindset and start scumhunting. That's the best way to save your ass as well as saving town. As of right now, you're suspicious to me.
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On November 28 2012 01:41 yamato77 wrote:
But I'm telling you, I've read all those people's filters. No one was as convinced of their case on someone as CC was of me and then switched their vote. Look at his language. I pointed it out. Has anyone else posted in that manner? No. Everyone has expressed reservations about voting for anyone at all, that none of their reads are strong. So if he seems overly confident in that scenario, it looks suspicious when I flip. If he was town and that confident of my scum behavior, he should have pushed for my lynch. He should have tried to convince other people.
I pushed for Munk's lynch. His behavior looked odd and sheepish. It's unfortunate he didn't post more or we might have been able to avoid lynching him.
Also, I am not sold on Oats as town or scum. His play is too erratic to read that well for me.
Here here! Yes, I was going to ask this. When going through CCs actions around the lynching, I didn't find his flip-flopping scummy for the reasons you mentioned in the your main case. This, however, is a very legitimate question.
So last night I was skimming through peoples filters trying to find who's 1) trying to be unnoticed and 2) didn't seem interested in finding out if their #1 scum read really was scum. When I got to CC, it was really hard to evaluate 1), because he got caught in a shitstorm early. However, I felt he actually did pass 2). This is because he replied to Yamato's post in detail, I'm thinking of this post:
+ Show Spoiler +On November 27 2012 02:16 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:Okay, just to make this known -- I will not be here for lynch tonight. My Comedy class is going to see a play on campus that I have to write an analytical paper for, so it's pretty important that I attend. @SDMMy opinion of Yamato is getting scummier as the thread progresses. I really cannot take anything he says seriously, just look at this wall of text. The majority is basically a summary of stuff that happened. Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 23:10 yamato77 wrote:It seems like most people that have posted opinions about me that are negative have done so while quoting or referencing the earliest part of my posts, so I guess I'll explain my thought process behind them. Early on, it became apparent to me, as I believe it did to Oats, that literally everyone was either not online at all or not posting intentionally. Most of my posts were in response to other people. If you'll notice, one of them was in response to CC asking me what I thought of him. I said On November 25 2012 14:53 yamato77 wrote:
I don't really care for your topics of discussion, but that's about it. Perhaps I should have explained then, but I meant that I didn't like the way he entered the thread. His little questionnaire was really, really pointless. It seemed to me at the time something that a mafia player might do to appear to be "starting discussion" without putting anything of real value in the thread. Thus, I limited my posting intentionally as to not really do anything except react to other people and try to get them to give information. Aqua was willing; I asked him his thoughts on me and Cheesecake and he gave them, without any questions. It was then that Cheesecake asked me my opinion of him, and I gave the aforementioned answer. Then he asked me what I thought the discussion should be about, and I told him, I thought us (Aqua and I) talking about whether he was acting suspicious was fine. I called out Oats for calling him scum, which I was not ready to do without more solid evidence, and have not done so yet. My next post received a lot of heat. I posted my ill-timed opinion of Mr. Cheesecake. I was being honest. 1)Nothing looked like worthwhile contribution up to that point, to me. It still doesn't. He says he has contributed, but I don't see anything except a poor read on Helos he backed away from, continually attacking me for voicing my opinion of him, and defending himself. He has posted no other reads on anyone else. 2)I keep saying these same things and they are still true.I want to know what people think of me because I don't want to be surprised by more votes on me like I was with SDM's. 3)I didn't like his voting of me because I didn't think people would honestly give a scum read on me based on my posting up to that point. I suppose I was wrong, which is why I've since become much more forthcoming with my thoughts and motivations. As far as reads on other people. Kickstarter's sheer aggression when defending Cheesecake against Oats is astounding. He uses vulgar language more than once and seems wholly preoccupied with Oats' vote being on CC. He doesn't even care if other people think Oats is scum necessarily, so why did he vote for him? 4)The play doesn't really make sense because all he did was cause a whole lot of uproar over a play that no one else saw as scummy. If anything, THAT seems like a scum play. That being said, Oats is definitely not a town read. None of his posting is particularly forthcoming about his actual motivation. His vote on CC, while initially seeming like a pressure vote, hasn't been justified properly. SDM and Aqua are probably town. They have posted the most real content up to this point and their arguments have been clearly motivated. Helo is a less troll version of Oats. None of his play is backed with clear motivation, but it is not inherently scummy either. If Jacob misspells my name one more time I will lynch him. In seriousness, I think he has posted a lot of fluff and rehashed arguments. 5)I am interested in who he reads as blue, though. I have a blue read too.Munk-E is seriously lackluster. I would vote for him over CC if I made a choice right now. I don't like CC's play but I don't like how little Munk has contributed and how long he has lurked. So to rank my reads from scummiest to least it would go: 6)Munk-E
Cheesecake
Kickstarter
(area of ambiguity)
Jacob
Helo
Oats
(/end area of ambiguity)
SDM
Aqua
Me 1) So nothing at all was worth pitching in on? Why don't you want to come up with original ideas instead of sheeping off of SDM's case on me? 2) We know you've been saying these things over and over, you don't need to tell us. Why are you trying to assure us that you haven't gone off-track in your thinking? 3) Town are not concerned with coming off a little scummy. You evidently, are. 4) Anyone who saw Oat's cavalier vote of me would at least garner some suspicion of it. The fact Kickstarter focused on it isn't a surprise. 5) Why do you want to know who is blue??? Town do NOT blue hunt!! Scum do. And even if you think someone might be blue, you do NOT reveal it to the thread -- it makes for an easy scum target. 6) As SDM said, these reads are SAFE AS HELL! Everyone on his top-scum list has had some suspicion thrown onto them by another player. Oats thinks im scummy, yamato agrees. Munk - E has some suspicion on him, yamato agrees. Kickstarter is thrown under the bus, yamato agrees. Where the HELL is his original thinking? - Yamato is sheeping like hell. - His largest post is basically a summary of events that rehashes other peoples ideas. - He seems to be actively lurking, and waiting for when to chime in (I.E., his post about me). Answering questions that aren't addressed to him fit in this category. I see no reason I should take my vote off of him.
I feel like this Munk-E lynch is an easy way for scum to secure a mislynch. I dearly hope he magically appears to defend himself. Helo right now I'm liking more because he shaped up after I accused him of being neutral. Oats is just sitting with his vote on me. His entire case is based on a "feeling" and that my questions were "fluff". Being content to just sit on someone really says "Meh, I don't care who is lynched, this guy will do."
It seemed like he really read Yamato's posts, analyzed them and came to the conclusion he was scum. And the conclusion seemed really strong as shown in the above post. This is why I was really suprised when I woke up this morning and found out CC of all people had switched to Munk-E (look at the part I bolded and put in red).
CC, I'd want a clear explanation as to why you switched to Munk-E? Walk me through it please.
As for Yamato, I'm starting to become convinced he's town and that we had a town/town wagon yesterday.
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On November 28 2012 04:55 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Kick's reaction to the case and my comments on him: Kick, you're still incredibly focused on defending yourself. If you're townie, take a deep breath and start focusing on more important things (scum hunting). Your scum hunting is non-existant, which can be shown by you quoting that old ass "case" you made on Oats.
You're relying on logic, which is fine, but I don't see much of town mindset from you. I've played a lot of scum and in my first game I went completely unnoticed for a long while relying on plain logic. It's super fucking easy to stay logically consistant as scum. It's much more difficult to show a real townie mindset. You are also focusing a lot on pointing out weaknesses in others's cases: Oats', my case and Yamato's case on CC. I don't think doing this is anti-town, BUT it is also incredibly easy for scum to do. I know pointing out weaknesses in cases is so tempting to do as scum while making cases against innocent townies so much harder. It is easier to just point out bad play and logical inconcistencies, which it seems like you're focusing on doing mostly doing (aside from defending yourself).
Cliff notes: So if you're townie, use your town mindset and start scumhunting. That's the best way to save your ass as well as saving town. As of right now, you're suspicious to me.
Fwiw I hope scum Kick looks at this and goes "shit, I can't keep playing like this but I don't know how to think like a townie" and that town Kick thinks "yeah he makes a good point, I need to focus on scum hunting, thinking deeper about stuff and establish my townieness".
I think we might've had a trio of townies suspected yesterday, since I'm leaning town on Yamato and I'm not at all sure about Kick. Kind of like in XXVIII when after D1, Alsn and Debears were the top suspects. They put in a shit ton of effort to clear themselves but failed because town refused to view their efforts with an open mind.
If this is XXVIII all over again I would be the lesser version of DarthPunk and Cheesecake would be scum SDM trying to not piss off DP. Alright, now I might be going into conspiracy theory territory, but CC seems to be overly friendly to me.
I'm not just talking about him sheeping me yesterday with Yamato, Oats and Helo early on. He also sheeped me after I voted on Munk-E. And now N1 when he lists people who flip-floped during the lynch, he somehow leaves me out. CC, I was the mother of all flip-flopers yesterday, why did you leave me out? Why do you think I'm town? If you are town CC, I urge you to view Kick's and in especially Yamato's efforts with an open mind.
The reason I'm talking like I'm dead is because I'm having a feeling I might get NKd tonight. If I am, don't start pretending like I was some kind of Nostradamus. Look at my arguments and evaluate them for what they are. The reason I got killed does NOT have to be because I made awesome reads. Me being active, analytical and generally considered townie is often enough to get lynched.
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@SDM
Okay I'm going to make this clear: I should have kept my vote on Yamato. Switching over to Munk was a huge mistake on my part, because I was so damn confused at the situation. Why were people sheeping onto my case so quickly? What was the deal with Munk? Why did Kick put his vote on Yamato? ("that's all I needed to hear") quote. This, and Yamato kept making me feel bad with his whiny posts.
I had to leave early and made one of those quick spur of the moment decisions that should never be made, but you do it anyway. We can blame the mislynch on me, go ahead, but I'm just confused as to why people followed in my wake. When I got back 8 mins before lynch, I was so surprised people were sticking so hard to the lurker lynch over Yamato. In those 8 minutes I reevaluated my decision and realized "Shit, why did I do that? If Yamato doesn't get lynched I'm just going to keep wondering" but at that point it was too late.
Yamato, focus on someone besides me. Tunneling me over this stupid decision won't do any good. If you're town, you'll realize that fact.
I'm looking at HeloKnight, Aqua, and Oats mainly right now. SDM, what do you think of each of them? I think Aqua's little exodus of last-minute voting fiasco is just a play to say: "Hey guys, I didn't vote for either of them, I'm in the clear." He seemed so distant from the lynch at hand, he didn't even give his vote on one of the main targets. That, and he was playing mega neutral early game.
Helo is just inactive and doesn't seem to really weigh in on discussions, and was just sitting back with his vote on Munk-E with his feet propped up.
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On November 28 2012 03:20 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Have you guys even noticed HeloKnight?
Where is he in any discussion? I don't recall him ever being here for something useful.
He pops in, gives his read on Oats, playing super ultra mega neutral.
When I call him out for it, He posts an original case on the easiest person: a lurker.
Says Munk-E isn't seeming so scummy, but still doesn't want to lynch Yamato.
That pretty much sums up his contribution to the thread. He's not actively in discussions. I fail to see him giving two shits about who is lynched, because he just kind of put the munk thing out there and let it stir. I've never seen him give a solid opinion of anyone else but the lurker and a safe interpretation of Oats. Doesn't seem like he cares or spends a good amount of time to benefit town.
FoS HeloKnight
@Jacob
What the fuck have you done this entire game besides posting semi-reads here and there. 80% of your filter is short snippets of nothingness.
First of all, I am unavailable on weekdays from 10pm to 3pm because of school and sleep. I participate in discussion when I am here for it, but I'm not going to spam and comment on random things just to show that I am participating.
I said that Munk-E was a better lynch than yamato yesterday, and I still think he was (knowing what we knew then). Almost everyone else agreed with me, including yourself. In fact, you say just about the same thing that I did about Munk vs yamato:
On November 27 2012 08:40 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Okay I have to leave... I doubt I'll return before lynch time.
I'm trying to come up with scenarios that will play well in my head if either guy flips town. I think the lesser of the two evils is Munk at this point, simply due to passiveness and ultra mega sheepy attitude. People rolling their face over Yamato because of my few posts doesn't sit well with me...
Crap, I hope this ain't a mistake.
##Vote: Munk-E
The Cheese will take his leave. Best of luck guys.
On November 27 2012 06:33 HeloKnight wrote:
On Munk-E:
So far, it looks like Munk-E is not going to show up at all. This indicates to me that he is not active lurking, but instead just not paying attention to the game. What he's doing right now is not an optimal scum strategy or a town strategy, because both sides obviously don't want to be lynched. This means that he is 100% a coinflip right now, as others have said. If he comments again (or votes), he'll have some major things to answer for. The problem is that I'm not really seeing a clear alternative. yamato's posting can be explained by newbie town or scum, as I said earlier, and I'm not convinced it's scum. In this sense, I feel him as a coinflip also. However, yamato is posting and providing some comments where M-E is giving nothing, so I'd rather lynch Munk today. If yamato is scum, we can look at his posting d2 and see if it still can be explained by newbie town.
Compare those bolded lines. Why can you attack me for saying Munk is the lesser of two evils when that's exactly what you said yourself?
I am planning on posting a full list of reads today in case I get nightkilled, so maybe that will ease your suspicions.
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A note on the setup that will be important to consider. A God Father is not in this game, the only alignment flipping role they've got is the Framer (if he is in the game). The Framer can not frame his scum buddy. This means:
1) Any green check is 100% confirmed townie
2) A red check is a lot more reliable compared to if there's a GF in the set-up.
3) The cop is more valuable than in the usual set-up.
(I PMd Hapa to confirm the the framer can't frame himself, that wasn't entirely clear in OP)
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@SDM
Your opinion is the only one I've been valuing in this thread mainly because of your experience and my town read on you. Ever since you made that case on me, in the back of my mind I was like "Okay, SDM is probably town". The fact that you did a whole meta case with relevant past information was awesome. Even if it wasn't good, it shows you weren't afraid to be wrong. You also seem like you care more than anybody else who is going to get lynched. That's why I think you're town, and at this point it's almost cemented in my mind.
You accuse me of not wanting to butt heads with you or sheeping a bit. I can see that, it's understandable. This is my first town game (excluding XXX lolness) so I'm not used to having nobody to bounce ideas off of that's actively in the game. So, I guess you're my confidant as a good town read.
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On November 28 2012 00:20 yamato77 wrote:
Also I want more from Aqua and Helos.
Aqua, you made the original case on kick. Your vote stuck with kick. What do you think of his play right now? Is your backing of your initial scum read final or are you still suspicious?
I don't think I have the same problems with his play as I did previously, but I still haven't read anything he's posted and thought to myself "That's not coming from scum".
On November 28 2012 01:21 Kickstart wrote:
The fact that is can be applied to anyone inherently makes it a bad case when applied to one person.
Indeed, and now that I've realised that my case can be I am taking off the Tunnel-Glasses (tm) (made by Confirmation Bias Inc.) and taking another good look at everyone else.
And I'll try one last time: I agree that the cases on Cheesecake were bad. I agree that Oatsmaster's posts were not up to scratch. What I didn't like about your posting was just HOW MUCH you were attacking the bad cases on Cheesecake (which is not something I ever felt the urge to do, Cheesecake can take care of himself) and HOW LITTLE you posted on anyone but Oats.
And I've still seen no reply to these questions:
On November 27 2012 18:18 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 15:56 yamato77 wrote:
I'll make my case against CC when I get home. My early game posts were obviously bad play. I get that now. Since then I think I'm quickly improving. I keep asking because it does no good to be town and get lynched day one for playing like scum.
That being said, I completely understand SDM's vote to me, but I have not changed my opinion on CC. What happened to the case on CC? I know you were defending yourself, but I still want to see this case.
On November 27 2012 18:26 Aquanim wrote:
@Mr. Cheesecake: What do you think is important for a good town atmosphere in Day 1? How do you think you contributed to this?
One question is: what happened to the Yamato lynch? Up until four hours before lynch Yamato was leading Munk-E in the lynch stakes. @everyone who switched from Yamato to Munk-E (in other words, everyone except Kickstart): Why did you switch? And for that matter, Kickstart, why didn't you switch? Also of note: HeloKnight made the original case on Munk-E, and pushed it pretty hard except at the end (when a Munk-E lynch was pretty much a lock): Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 11:36 HeloKnight wrote:
Okay, I still think it's a little suspicious that your top read also happened to be the wagon of the time, but I'll drop that point because a townie would go after their top scum read.
I still don't want to lynch yamato today. I'm trying to not "white knight" him and to keep my mind open to him as scum, but I'm leaning pretty hard towards a newbie town feel right now. Trying to make himself look a little better for when Munk-E flips green, and keeping his options open on yamato? Looking through HeloKnight's filter I don't see much scumhunting substance besides his Munk-E case and an earlier, inconclusive post on Oatsmaster (and let's face it, a case on a lurker with two posts isn't exactly difficult to concoct). I'd appreciate other people looking through HeloKnight's posts and giving your opinion.
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On November 28 2012 05:41 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
@SDM
Okay I'm going to make this clear: I should have kept my vote on Yamato. Switching over to Munk was a huge mistake on my part, because I was so damn confused at the situation. Why were people sheeping onto my case so quickly? What was the deal with Munk? Why did Kick put his vote on Yamato? ("that's all I needed to hear") quote. This, and Yamato kept making me feel bad with his whiny posts.
I had to leave early and made one of those quick spur of the moment decisions that should never be made, but you do it anyway. We can blame the mislynch on me, go ahead, but I'm just confused as to why people followed in my wake. When I got back 8 mins before lynch, I was so surprised people were sticking so hard to the lurker lynch over Yamato. In those 8 minutes I reevaluated my decision and realized "Shit, why did I do that? If Yamato doesn't get lynched I'm just going to keep wondering" but at that point it was too late.
Yamato, focus on someone besides me. Tunneling me over this stupid decision won't do any good. If you're town, you'll realize that fact.
I'm looking at HeloKnight, Aqua, and Oats mainly right now. SDM, what do you think of each of them? I think Aqua's little exodus of last-minute voting fiasco is just a play to say: "Hey guys, I didn't vote for either of them, I'm in the clear." He seemed so distant from the lynch at hand, he didn't even give his vote on one of the main targets. That, and he was playing mega neutral early game.
Helo is just inactive and doesn't seem to really weigh in on discussions, and was just sitting back with his vote on Munk-E with his feet propped up.
Fwiw I think the entire town is to blame for the mislynch. Whoever the townies are we didn't do a good job neither scum hunting nor establishing our townieness. The reason your vote on Munk was weird was because you seemed so sure about Yamato being scum. I think it's less likely a convinced townie will suddenly have a sudden switch of heart and change vote. A scum on the other hand may not realize how convinced he is, or at least seemed, and may slip up.
Now I understand confusion is possible because yesterday I was confused myself, but your sudden change from conviction to confusion doesn't sit entirely well with me. Unfortunately I likely won't have time to look closer into it today, so in the end I'm not convinced either way on your alignment. You seem to put a lot of effort in so I hope you're town. I'll state it clearly that you're rather null to me atm, just so people tomorrow won't get any ideas you were a big scum read of mine. But I think your actions are worth looking into.
Helo and Aqua have probably been the only two I've had a slight town leans on this game. Aqua I feel like have shown at least some signs of town mentality. I quoted a post earlier about that. He's really low volume though so I can't really put much trust in him. Helo has also come off as quite genuine. I quoted one example where he admitted he just asked a question for the sake of asking a question, because he didn't really know what to do. I've seen quite a lot newbie town do say similar things but never any scum. I feel like it's a sign of honesty. Again, he too is rather low volume so I can't put too much weight in such a read at this point.
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On November 28 2012 05:58 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
@SDM
Your opinion is the only one I've been valuing in this thread mainly because of your experience and my town read on you. Ever since you made that case on me, in the back of my mind I was like "Okay, SDM is probably town". The fact that you did a whole meta case with relevant past information was awesome. Even if it wasn't good, it shows you weren't afraid to be wrong. You also seem like you care more than anybody else who is going to get lynched. That's why I think you're town, and at this point it's almost cemented in my mind.
You accuse me of not wanting to butt heads with you or sheeping a bit. I can see that, it's understandable. This is my first town game (excluding XXX lolness) so I'm not used to having nobody to bounce ideas off of that's actively in the game. So, I guess you're my confidant as a good town read.
It's possible I'm being paranoid. We seem to have a lot of similar opinions and usually you've been having them after me :p I can see wanting to have one player in the game you wanna trust though, otherwise it gets really lonely as town. Like I said, I'd put you at null. If you're town I'm sure you'll be able to show it later. Hopefully I'll be around tomorrow, right now i just don't have enough time.
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@Aqua
How did you become so convinced Kick was scum (or at least the best lynch candidate)? You don't seem to put that much time into this game, so it seems a bit weird to me.
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Oh, I forgot to comment on Oats. Yeah, had a scum lean on him early but he's continuing to be spazzy. He was going after you really hard and all of a sudden he dropped that when deadline was closing in, for no good reason. Seems to make kind of arbitrary votes and it's really not easy to follow his thought process. Not really sure what else to say about him, seems like a weird scum strat. Haven't seen any scum spazzes. Aside from Kush the careless players I've seen has been town (and Kush is spazz when town as well, at least in my experience). Might be limited experience on my part.
I'm not convinced about your case. It's mostly pointing out bad play and inconsistencies (anti-town). Problem is if he's town, which is a real possibility, he's a really easy mislynch for scum. I think the best approach is to try to get him to straighten up his posts. He's quite high quantity but not quality.
I'd probably use him as a back-up plan for a lynch D2, but a back-up plan I would prefer not to execute. I'd be worried about people pushing his lynch too hard, because like I said it's an easy mislynch to setup. He's been spazzy all game, any reason you're pushing his lynch now? He didn't seem to be on your scum radar D1. Your case looks a little bit like my cases when I'm scum, "omg guys look at those inconsistencies and the bad play". I can see worrying about him being a late game liability, but that doesn't seem like the argument you're making.
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ebwop: I had a town lean on him early
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And I'm done. My brain is in melt down mode. If I'm dead tomorrow, please consider the points I've made on N1 when you're scum hunting D2, but also realize these are thoughts I've typed out having rather limited time. If I'm dead tomorrow you'll know I'm townie and don't have to worry about second guessing my motives, but you still need to be critical about my reasoning. Don't just cling onto something I've said, but try to figure out whether it makes sense.
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Eh, I just don't see much town motivation from him. Marv told me that looking for motivation in posts was key to unlocking the pieces of the puzzle. What's the purpose for his posts? I don't see much townie motiv for it. I made that longass post to point out of all the fallacies in town motivation, combined with his tendency to not do much in this thread other than soft-attack people. and spread a little suspicion without much evidence
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Helo's Complete List of Reads
SDM: Strong town. The most active player, constantly probing for information, explaining his thoughts, and generally playing smart. Going through his filter you can see lots of very useful posts commenting on the situation. Very confident on this one.
Aquanim: Leaning town. He pushed his Kickstart case, but admitted it had holes when he found them, which shows he's not just tunneling one player. Not a long filter, but generally good posts.
Mr. Cheesecake: Leaning town. He's throwing suspicion onto many players, such as myself, yamato, and Jacob, which I see as a town trait. I think he should consider a town explanation on yamato's posts instead of just a scum one, and I think confirmation bias might be a factor. For instance, the post referenced in this case can also be explained by newbie town. Might be scum pushing for an easier mislynch, but I doubt it. His vote onto Munk was also odd, but he's offered an explanation that doesn't tell much, so I'll ignore it.
yamato77 Null. I've offered my opinions on him many times, and I still don't know if he's town or scum. I think he really could be either. Lynching him feels like a coinflip to me. A lot will depend on what he does tomorrow.
Kickstart: Null. Pushed Oats pretty hard early, which doesn't say much. He's done a pretty good job of explaining himself against multiple accusations, but that's most of what he's done. I'd like to hear a little more about others than just Oats.
Jacob Strangelove: Heavily leaning scum. Nearly his entire filter is just one liners, with almost nothing of value. Anything he says would be easily faked by scum. He does nothing but ask useless questions and say pretty obvious things. Will probably write a full case up for tomorrow.
Oatsmaster: I don't even know what to say. He's been basically trolling this whole game. He spams about useless stuff, and hasn't done anything to make me think he's town. The only real defense for him is the "too scummy to be scum" defense, and I don't find it very convincing. I refer people to CC's case on him for a good explanation of what I'm getting at.
I'm out of time for right now, but I'll elaborate on whatever you all want when I'm back.
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Right so as promised I did some digging into the Munk-E lynch because I felt there would be something there that would help us get some reads on people. After looking at it I have come to the conclusion that
Yamato77 is SCUM
Now before I get into making my own case I want to show what Munk-E had to say during Day 1 and particularly near lynch time, because at this point in time the only person who we know for 100% is town is Munk-E., so we automatically know that his posts were genuine and had town motivation. Now I will grant that just because Munk-E was town does not necessarily make his reads correct, but I think the fact that he is the only confirmed town at this point gives his reads some extra weight that we cannot yet give to anyone else.
Munk-E's strongest read was on Yamato, here are his posts:
+ Show Spoiler +On November 27 2012 05:51 Munk-E wrote:Right now, I feel Yamato is our best bet. Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 23:10 yamato77 wrote:It seems like most people that have posted opinions about me that are negative have done so while quoting or referencing the earliest part of my posts, so I guess I'll explain my thought process behind them. Early on, it became apparent to me, as I believe it did to Oats, that literally everyone was either not online at all or not posting intentionally. Most of my posts were in response to other people. If you'll notice, one of them was in response to CC asking me what I thought of him. I said On November 25 2012 14:53 yamato77 wrote:
I don't really care for your topics of discussion, but that's about it. Perhaps I should have explained then, but I meant that I didn't like the way he entered the thread. His little questionnaire was really, really pointless. It seemed to me at the time something that a mafia player might do to appear to be "starting discussion" without putting anything of real value in the thread. Thus, I limited my posting intentionally as to not really do anything except react to other people and try to get them to give information. Aqua was willing; I asked him his thoughts on me and Cheesecake and he gave them, without any questions. It was then that Cheesecake asked me my opinion of him, and I gave the aforementioned answer. Then he asked me what I thought the discussion should be about, and I told him, I thought us (Aqua and I) talking about whether he was acting suspicious was fine. I called out Oats for calling him scum, which I was not ready to do without more solid evidence, and have not done so yet. My next post received a lot of heat. I posted my ill-timed opinion of Mr. Cheesecake. I was being honest. Nothing looked like worthwhile contribution up to that point, to me. It still doesn't. He says he has contributed, but I don't see anything except a poor read on Helos he backed away from, continually attacking me for voicing my opinion of him, and defending himself. He has posted no other reads on anyone else. I keep saying these same things and they are still true. I want to know what people think of me because I don't want to be surprised by more votes on me like I was with SDM's. I didn't like his voting of me because I didn't think people would honestly give a scum read on me based on my posting up to that point. I suppose I was wrong, which is why I've since become much more forthcoming with my thoughts and motivations. As far as reads on other people. Kickstarter's sheer aggression when defending Cheesecake against Oats is astounding. He uses vulgar language more than once and seems wholly preoccupied with Oats' vote being on CC. He doesn't even care if other people think Oats is scum necessarily, so why did he vote for him? The play doesn't really make sense because all he did was cause a whole lot of uproar over a play that no one else saw as scummy. If anything, THAT seems like a scum play. That being said, Oats is definitely not a town read. None of his posting is particularly forthcoming about his actual motivation. His vote on CC, while initially seeming like a pressure vote, hasn't been justified properly. SDM and Aqua are probably town. They have posted the most real content up to this point and their arguments have been clearly motivated. Helo is a less troll version of Oats. None of his play is backed with clear motivation, but it is not inherently scummy either. If Jacob misspells my name one more time I will lynch him. In seriousness, I think he has posted a lot of fluff and rehashed arguments. I am interested in who he reads as blue, though. I have a blue read too. Munk-E is seriously lackluster. I would vote for him over CC if I made a choice right now. I don't like CC's play but I don't like how little Munk has contributed and how long he has lurked. So to rank my reads from scummiest to least it would go: Munk-E Cheesecake Kickstarter (area of ambiguity) Jacob Helo Oats (/end area of ambiguity) SDM Aqua Me He seems to be against me, CC and kickstarter. I understand his reasoning behind being suspicious of me (despite my opinion of being suspicious of lurkers), however he never made an argument against CC, despite promising to. Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 15:56 yamato77 wrote:
I'll make my case against CC when I get home. My early game posts were obviously bad play. I get that now. Since then I think I'm quickly improving. I keep asking because it does no good to be town and get lynched day one for playing like scum.
That being said, I completely understand SDM's vote to me, but I have not changed my opinion on CC. In fact, the only one I see who has made a real case against CC is SDM, and that case was based off of how he played in previous games. I feel basing a scum read on how he played before is really dumb, because he could easily change his style, and in that post he also said that he probably intentionally did that. This just creates a massive WIFOM situation, and thus to me, invalidates the point. This post was also posted in the middle of a minor Kickstarter bandwagon. And while he did make a small case against kickstarter, it was nothing really substantial, and somewhat contradictive. Show nested quote +The play doesn't really make sense because all he did was cause a whole lot of uproar over a play that no one else saw as scummy. If anything, THAT seems like a scum play.
That being said, Oats is definitely not a town read. (Also as a side note, I saw that play as scummy, as I explained before.) This may be to distance himself from oats, who I feel still isn't in the clear, but his entire case on kickstarter was because he went after oats so aggressively, therefore, going and saying he might be scum is contradictory to his entire case. What I noticed most about his only posts that were more than a few lines were hardcore about defending his image. (above and below) Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 06:55 yamato77 wrote:On November 26 2012 06:33 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:Yes, SDM, I know you pointed this out, but I have to say something. On November 26 2012 05:34 yamato77 wrote:
Mr. Cheesecake is playing without contributing. He's written a lot, but most of it is absolutely useless to a town looking for scum. His policy discussion and talk about other mafia games he's played doesn't help hunt for other players, it seems like more of a defense for himself. Then he calls out two players, myself and Helo, trying to draw attention away from himself. None of this reads town to me, at all. I really do NOT like this kind of post from Yamato. First, he is completely hypocritical because he hasn't contributed two cents to the thread. Secondly, he is answering a question that isn't addressed to him. He randomly pops up when I'm being pressured to cast aspersions on me. Where was he before this? What is his motivation or making such a cavalier, random post? He is entitled to his opinion, but his convenient timing and content reads inherently scummy to me. My motivation is to give my read on someone who is playing suspiciously since his first post. Where was I before that? Asleep. A bunch of your argument to me is simply fallacy. Me being hypocritical (whether true or not) has nothing to do with your contributions to the thread. My timing and content is scummy? Of course I want to voice my opinion on someone who is being cast into the spotlight. What am I supposed to do? Ignore it? You didn't even answer my accusations, you just spun around and attacked me. At least SDM's post against mine had some quality. On November 26 2012 06:03 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
I don't like this reaction. Sure, you can argue he hasn't contributed much, but at least he's been somewhat enganged in the thread unlike a lot of others.
Aside from that, the reason he talked about his old games was because I asked him, him answering is appreciated. Him calling out you and Helo can easily have town motivations. Obviously town wants to call out what he considers suspicious bahaviour.
You end up saying nothing reads town, but the more important question is: does it read scum, and why?
Other than that your one-liners are really not contributing much and kind of stay-under-the-radar like.
FOS Yamato I don't think my posting at the beginning should be taken as alignment indicative. It was prodding, mostly. I'm on the fence about Mr. Cheesecake. His posting is still mostly defending himself, and attacking two players who posted early, me and Helo. That kind of behavior doesn't really indicate alignment, but if he keeps coming after me with posts that don't even address my concerns about him, I'm going to vote for him. Most of what I've posted so far has been to get a reaction, and it has worked. How people answer questions and accusations are definitely tells. Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 12:38 yamato77 wrote:
SDM's vote on me is based on information from a single post basically, which does not bode well for my opinion of him. Honestly if I am your top scumread because of a bunch of one-liners and a post where I give my negative opinion on someone you read as scum, you are doing something wrong.
CC's vote on me looks like scum trying to deflect attention onto a player receiving negative heat. Also, it would eliminate someone he sees as a threat, if he was scum, in that I haven't liked his play since the start of the game.
I'm tempted to vote Cheesecake with you, if your vote is actually serious. However, if I get lynched today, I would 100% go after CC and SDM tomorrow because of the way they have parked their votes on me. Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 07:26 yamato77 wrote:
You want my opinion on Oats? He is probably just a bored townie early on because him giving some silly read is just to spark discussion on something. As he keeps going on, a lot of his posting is in reaction to you and accusations against him, which is entirely logical given that until you guys FoS'd me, that was the only discussion. Nothing there reads either way, in particular.
SDM's post was "a little jab"? Dude voted for you. If I'm interested in his reasons, which I was, and I have my own reasons, which I did, I would voice them. Again, am I supposed to just stay silent and let you lynch me for saying nothing?
I definitely said I didn't like your topics of discussion in my first few posts. They are fluff, which I don't care for. I didn't react to them because that is adding to the fluff. If that is how people think we should start threads, I disagree. It doesn't provide any information at all. What Oats did was more productive, in my opinion, but hardly alignment indicative.
Also, I'm definitely interested to see if SDM still thinks my play is scummy after these two posts. And how about the rest of you lurkers? Do I look scummy to you? Yes Yamato, yes you doNow I shouldn't need to tell you why I'm suspicious of someone who's only real content is making cases for why he's innocent. He also voted for me after both helo and SDM, but i'll let it slide because I was at the top of suscpicion list. Nonetheless, he seems most concerned about defending himself, and explaining his actions, and that certainly seems more scummy than anyone else so far to me, and while I wish I had longer to decide, he certainly looks the worst to me, so therefore ##Vote: yamato77(p.s. before anyone says it, I didn't just make this post because he was voting for me, I understand that's just pressure.)
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+ Show Spoiler +On November 27 2012 11:26 Munk-E wrote:
Alright,i hate having to defend myself, but i guess it's necessary so you don't waste a vote. No one has made a real case against me. The only real argument against me that everyone claims is that I'm lurking, and that i voted to save myself. As for the lurking, the point of accusing lurkers is to get them to talk. In theory, the more they say the easier they are to read, of they're mafia, they might say too much and give a tell. This point is null though, because it brings suspicion to lurkers. Besides, you got what you want from me, I'm talking more. As for the voting solely to save myself, it's not true. Yamato still is the scummiest player here, doing minimal scum hunting and over reacting every time someone accuses him of something. Someone accused me of being sheepish, because i said i wasn't 100% sure. I guess that was a wrong thing to say, even though that's how the game works. You never are positive about a role unless you are detective, which wouldn't work because it's day one, or mafia. You just go with your best guess.
The point is there isn't a case against me, just a band wagon. Honestly, there are so many of you that voted for me with no or minimal justification, especially those who only recently jumped on the bandwagon.
Now to sum up Munk-E's points against Yamato (but you should still read the posts I quoted because I think Munk-E actually did a good job in making his case, and again knowing that Munk-E was town makes his rather well thought out case against Yamato even more compelling) he accuses Yamato of content less posting, not making any scum reads himself while getting on others for doing the same thing, and of only defending himself. All of these charges are true and they hold up all through Yamato's filter. Now I cant copy and paste his entire filter but I encourage you to go look at it and you will see that Yamato has the largest filter of anyone in the game (about 5 pages), but it entirely composed of, one liners, summation posts (just a summary of events thus far), defense of himself, and bad/easy cases (his only real cases have been against cheese, both times they are bad and use points that have already been made by someone else). Now that is a huge pattern of posting - he has had more posts than anyone else and with the longest filter he has managed to offer nearly nothing in the way of looking for scum.
Now all this so far is bad for Yamato and on its own would make a good case against him and is good enough reason to vote for him because it is all very scummy. But looking at the Munk-E lynch I found something even more damning. I looked at the progression of votes that went onto Munk-E and tried to see which ones were suspicious. The first vote on Munk-E is from HeloKnight and the second is from SDM. Now Helo is the first to make a move on Munk-E and does it because Munk-E is lurking and the only post Munk-E did make was a sheep onto Oats - both valid points at the time. Now SDMs vote onto Munk-E is for lurking aswell, but at least SDM is hesitant with the vote, but still gives solid reasons for it other than the ones Helo gave and doesn't seem to be jumping onto a Munk-E wagon. Then Yamato throws his vote on Munk-E with this post:
On November 27 2012 00:39 yamato77 wrote:
##Vote: Munk-E
If he posts anything useful at all in the few hours I am sleeping after this post, I will change it, because I really don't like lynching people just because they lurk. However, right now, I have to place a vote just in case I oversleep drastically and he really is the best candidate.
CC and kick still on my scumdar. Jacob, Helo, and Oats are not far from it, either.
This is suspicious for a few reasons. First he tries to hedge himself by saying that this isn't his final choice, he is just making it and will change it because he doesn't like lynching lurkers. Well the vote never changes - Yamato says he doesn't like lynching lurkers (which is his only charge against Munk-E in this post) but in the same post says Munk-E is the best candidate (when his only beef is his lurking) and again he just leaves the vote on the lurker. This is someone trying to jump on a wagon without drawing attention to themselves if I've ever seen it. He says "oh this really isn't a great vote and I will change it" but makes the vote anyways and never changes it. It is even worse given that he says he has two other scumreads, because if his only problem with Munk-E was his lurking then why would he jump onto that easy wagon instead of trying to push his actual reads?
Here is another post from Yamato when he was under a bit of pressure:
On November 27 2012 07:19 yamato77 wrote:
Seriously pressure CC to do anything besides tunnel one player. That's all he's done today and tomorrow he may have no plan, if he is scum.
Jacob, equally, has contributed nothing of real value. If he's off playing a video game like he claims (terrible cop-out), then perhaps you guys need to pressure him into making reads that aren't complete fluff like posting a whole paragraph deciphering if I slept the right amount of time in his opinion. His vote on me seems contrived, as does Munk-E's, because neither one cast serious suspicion on me before placing their vote.
MUNK-E IS SCUM. He has lurked the whole game for no good reason. His two serious posts are mostly content-less reasons to sheep his vote on a player already under heat. I see absolutely zero town motivation in his actions at this point. If I get lynched, your day 2 should be DESTROYING him for how terrible he is playing.
Again we have the typical accusing others of tunneling and sheeping and all that while not providing much himself, but the interesting thing here is the last paragraph because it just reaffirms what I have been saying. Yamato only brings up two points against Munk-E here, one is that he is lurking and the other is that Munk-E's two posts are content-less cheeping onto players. Well the first is just his excuse for leaving his vote on Munk-E, everyone was already saying Munk-E was lurking so this is just a safe statement - nothing new here. But the second statement is a blatant lie. Look at Munk-E's post on Yamato that I spoilered above and ask yourself if that is a content-less sheeping post. I don't think it is, it is a well reasoned post and all his criticisms of Yamato are valid even up until now, and we know now that Munk-E was town and this leads me to believe that he was being genuine - this was not a sheep.
So there is my case on Yamato. I do need to go to class now but I wanted to post this case before night actions because I won't be back until afterwards and wanted to contribute incase I get NKd. So right now Yamato has been promoted to my top scum read followed by Oats.
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On November 28 2012 07:12 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Eh, I just don't see much town motivation from him. Marv told me that looking for motivation in posts was key to unlocking the pieces of the puzzle. What's the purpose for his posts? I don't see much townie motiv for it. I made that longass post to point out of all the fallacies in town motivation, combined with his tendency to not do much in this thread other than soft-attack people. and spread a little suspicion without much evidence
Yeah, Debears posted a saying in XXVIII which was something along the lines of "If something doesn't make sense from the point of view of town, it's scum motivated". There's something to that, but also I've seen so much terrible town play. He's a potential candidate mostly because he's a liability and non-contributor imo, just don't get too focused on just him.
Meh, I feel feel pretty silly leaving on the note of being sceptical of CC. He really seems to be the one trying the most and actually being critical. In general, and especially in this game where I've got the feeling scum doesn't really have to try, that has to be a town trait.
And I missed the part of you questioning Aqua's vote on Kick. I've tried to ask him myself about that, I feel it was weird and I think those questions are worth pursuing.
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SDM, don't be so pessimistic about the NK. I'm sure some doctor will come to your aid  . Think you're too obvious the target to be shot in the face.
Anywhom, I really must agree with the terrible town play. Myself included with that lolmunk switch. Dthe fact that aqua parkedhis vote on kick is suspicious mainly because he dun give a fk who would be lynched. Ofc i knew that in xxix, and is the reason i forced myself to switch onto one of the popular two bandwagons, which i even used to defend myself later that game. Can't see the reason having a random vote out there is a good thing, other than to separate yourself from a town flip.
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