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mem I was scared to listen to you because of this post:
On October 15 2012 23:51 Mementoss wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2012 23:49 thrawn2112 wrote:On October 15 2012 23:32 Mementoss wrote:On October 15 2012 22:26 thrawn2112 wrote:In the case that da0 gets lynched and he flips green then this post may be of importance later: I don't like the way prplhz and memtoss have defended each other in the last couple pages On October 15 2012 21:21 prplhz wrote:
can you please explain to me how you can be so dumb to think that scum are just going to pass the potato between each other? if that happens you can be 100% sure that one of them isn't scum.
da0ud is probably scum and i should just have gone with my page 2 scum read on him and realized that OriginalName's 2 ninja votes were suspicious as fuck but sandroba is just ten steps ahead of me. i might pass it to him but then you have to deal with how he's passing it to a townie Mementoss (doubt Mementoss would have the balls to tell a townie sandroba to sod off in the first 2 pages if he was scum). i'm thinking Mementoss holds on to his hide for now and then he hides when i give the potato to da0ud. On October 15 2012 21:27 Mementoss wrote:
Work Time now, so I don't have time to explain. Hopefully will before the potato blows
I would MUCH rather lynch d0ad over prplhz. If you actually read prplhz filter he looks pretty town ignoring the fact he really thought sandroba was scum. But guess what? Townies are wrong most of the time. They don't have the information like scum. They can't manufacturer reads based on this information. That looks like what da0d has been doing all game, picking people to make cases on and manufacturing them after the fact.
Also, to everyone saying lolz da0d/ prplhz pass between eachother. (kush) I want a detailed post on why you think they are both scum. Including stuff that doesn't have to do with ON flipping scum. Also think if you had the potato and you knew you were town. Why the fuck would you listen to anyone else or hold the potato because someone told you to? Holding the potato as town makes no sense. Holding the potato as scum, makes more sense to get town cred. Telling people what they have do with the potato without a good reason, or they will be lynched is complete scum motivation. If I had the potato, I would not hold that thing a second longer than I had to, and would be putting it on my top scum read, not someone elses. Why? You know your own alignment and no one elses. You can only trust yourself at that point. Does this change your view of me from the last page? And it was funny how right after I defend prplhz he ninja defends me, and then subsequently makes a plan to throw the potatoe at ET without explanation. If you could pick one person to be scum that doesn't include me prplhz or da0d. Who would it be? (only asking your because your my top town read atm) Idk that will require some reading. But there has been this voice in the back of my head telling me to be suspicious of austin. There's a subtle difference in his meta this game from his meta in the 2 recent games I've seen him play town. In this game he spent a much longer time being lurkish before posting walls of text and I had to specifically call him out to get him to do so. He's also been doing weird shit like asking "if you r scum" hypotheticals... in those other games I saw him jnust being way more straight forward in general. And he only put down a single vote in round 1, then he put down 3 votes for ON in r4 and left the rest of his votes up to me and kush. At the time when he made that offer kush looked like he was for sure going to vote sand and I was on the fence but leaning sand. That's 6 of his votes, or 60% of his D1 actions we cant really account for. I still don't understand how anyone would want to give away their votes. Other than those things I've gotten a very townish vibe off of him but those things have been in the back of my mind all game. Nice we have the same hunch. I will try to put something cohesive together after work. Read this if your interested in scum austin: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174
at that time my suspicions of austin were so incredibly small and even I considered them to be a little crazy... and you posted this at a time when you were already a few people's scumreads.
i read that post over and over trying to decide if if felt genuine or not... i just thought it was crazy that you would happen to have the same hunch I did, and it happened at a convenient time if you were scum.
so basically after that post i was scared to trust you the rest of the game
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One reliable indicator of someone being town that I use is posting a read that demonstrates that the person is clearly reading carefully and thinking. This is particularly strong if it's something that you also considered, but didn't yet post about. For instance
On October 20 2012 02:51 thrawn2112 wrote:
Hey sorry I'm in the middle of moving, don't have Internet except for my phone. I'll be back online probably a little over 24 hours from now.... Might phone post between now and then but prob not. Oh yeah v e is scum for having such a strong lynch Austin stance even though he's a replacement. First words were something like "Austin needs to go" .... Most confident first words from a replacement I've ever seen
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Post Game Thoughts
I'll mostly discuss the setup, rather than the play of individuals since I don't really have the same perspective as the players.
The goal of the first cycle was to force mafia players to comment on situations, which they normally wouldn't be expected to provide their opinion on. Normally, a mafia player will be able to list 1-2 reads on the first day, while ignoring everyone else. With the tournament mechanic, they would be forced to provide a day one read between two players, which greatly limits their options later on.
The the mafia team was obviously going to vote against their teammates during the first round. However, the important thing to evaluate was the impact and timing of a player's vote. When ON showed up two minutes after the deadline to throw a couple irrelevant votes on djo, I really thought he could have caused his team some trouble. Not only were the votes late, they also did not have any impact on the result. Now why would a player throw away his votes on a matchup that was already decided? It would either be due to the fact that that player wasn't paying attention (which is quite possible in ON's case) or because they wanted their votes against that player on the voting record for future days. Another thing to consider was that every matchup did not provide valid information. In situations where it was a town vs town or mafia vs mafia, the voting was based on which player the mafia team thought would be the easiest to lynch or which of their own stood the best chance in the next round. Finally, voting against ON was quite reasonable from a mafia perspective. He was clearly not perticipating in the thread and when sandroba flipped green, he would be in quite a difficult situation on day two. I think town overemphisied the impact of the final matachup on day one.
On the subject of ON, I appologize for not resolving that in time. I had contacted him about his activity and he replied that he had more time to spend on the game, but apparently that wasn't the case. By the time it was clear that he wasn't able to return, there were only a few hours remaining in the cycle. I had the option of subbing in VE at that point, but I felt it would be unfair to swing the lynch so close to the deadline.
The theme that I was most hesitant in including was the potato round due to the random factor. Generally random elements of mafia games don't turn out well, but I felt that if players passed the potato to certain players frequently, that they would have some degree of control over who would be lynched. Another concern was that two players would simply pass the potato between each other without any information being generated. The hide mechanic was an attempt to circumvent this scenario, but it may have been better to prevent a player from returning the potato to the player who them them it. Unfortunately, this would not allow a player from punishing their number one scum read.
The problem town encountered on day two was that the potato wasn't being utilized to generate information. The time the potato would detonate was truly randomized, so holding onto it really isn't the optimum strategy as either alignment. As all power was held in the player holding the potato, the mafia team was able to provide opinions that had little consequence. Hiro was able to get off free by giving up the potato to prpl without even calling him scummy.
Day three was a nightmare to vote count, but similar to day one, it forced players to give reads on multiple players. Something that was overlooked early on was that players on the bottom of the list weren't necessarily the players you thought were the most town, it was the players that you wanted to reduce the danger of being lynched. If your top three scum suspects were A,B,and C, it might make sense to put A at the top and C at the bottom if those two players were tied for the lead. This was ulitized later on when dauod plummitted near the end of the cycle. With these strange lynch mechanics, it required players to look at voting patterns differently. Something I felt that was important here was how did the opinion of a player change based on their threat of being lynched.
I wanted to keep the roles pretty vanilla since most of the focus would be on the lynch mechanics. I felt the mafia pardoner would fit in nicely and give the mafia the opportunity to either take a risk and pardon themselves or incriminate another player with a pardon. The veteran was added as a mid-tier power role to balance out the setup. It was quite unfortunate for town that austin happened to be lynched before he could absorb a hit.
I felt that day four was quite mafia favored, considering that the timing. It was quite likely that a mislynch on this day would end the game, which is what happened. With two mafia players alive, town was required to be extremely careful in avoiding a last minute vote switch. Having a closed ballot allowed players to mask their intentions. The ideal strategy for town would not to friend themselves, but the player most suseptible to a mislynch. The mafia could swing the lynch a total of four votes, but in this case everyone was on thrawn so it didn't matter. Discussion during the final day was somewhat disappointing. For a game that had really good activity early on, town morale really died off with the mislynch and nightkill. The mafia team did a good job by not digging themselves a hole, but they had to put in little effort to push the lynch. djo saying that he didn't even want to see thrawn lynched moments before the deadline should have set off alarms in everyones head considering he did absolutely nothing to prevent it during mylo.
The pardon was ignored for the most part, which I found quite strange. The player most likely to be lynched at mylo suddenly gets pardoned? If there was a town pardoner, they would have been transparent and claimed. Why would a mafia pardoner pardon a town player who was likely to get lynched a mylo? From what I could tell, noone really put much effort into trying to connect Hiro/VE with another player, which could have ended the game.
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In retrospect, I'm kicking myself for ignoring the pardoner. However, I probably would have tunneled into thrawn or da0ud anyways so it wouldn't have changed the outcome from my perspective.
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Regarding D4, I'm pretty sure that the best voting strategy for mafia was to find someone not using his friend vote on himself and stack 2 mafia foe votes against him beforehand.
Even with the 4 town votes against a mafia member, 2 last minute friend votes would have lower the count to 2.
So at the end, we have 2 people with a total of 2 votes. I thought that the first one (ie the townie) would have been lynched in this case.
That's why I told everybody to friend himself. But is my reasoning right ?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
The tiebreaker would go against you, but if you were able to come up with a single townie that didn't act perfectly it would have worked.
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I tried to bring up the pardoner but no one had any thoughts on it but me. In the end I figured that thrawn was pardoner and couldn't self pardon. The theory fit nicely in my head and just convinced me of thrawn's guilt even more.
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yeah but you should have understood that VE was necessarly mafia in this case. I was even explaining you this point 
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If you are a mafia pardoner who is heavily being pushed as a lynch you don't use your power to implicate your partner. Once you saw VE being pardoned and no one besides thrawn being pushed as a lynch it should have been clear he isn't mafia.
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EPT
