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debears
United States2516 Posts
Stutters - he was decisive in his vote of kush and was the first one after you to vote for him. However, he hasn't made any contributions to day 2. I would hope he makes a case soon. Slight town read. Remedy - His posting is much improved from last game. However, there hasn't been much there. He did point out some stuff about corrosion but hasn't followed it up. He's now locking on to omniscient. He's a null read still. Need to see more | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On October 01 2012 15:07 debears wrote: SDM - his posts have been solid so far. The one thing I didn't like about him day 1 is that he wasn't as active as he was last game. He has shown quality so I believe it is more of his schedule. Slight town read. Stutters - he was decisive in his vote of kush and was the first one after you to vote for him. However, he hasn't made any contributions to day 2. I would hope he makes a case soon. Slight town read. Remedy - His posting is much improved from last game. However, there hasn't been much there. He did point out some stuff about corrosion but hasn't followed it up. He's now locking on to omniscient. He's a null read still. Need to see more SO you have a scum read on ALSN and Corrosion and null or town on the rest? | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Omniscient - His medic point is most likely true. I would like to see more scumhunting from him. He came across scummy early though. Null leaning slightly scummy. Djo - Hard to read. He goes back and forth. I don't like how he is latching to kush's posts about saving me and the scum team for life. He would be assuming that kush was throwing the game or he is entering a WIFOM disaster. Null but he's not helping himself Lesrah - lol Any1 i miss? | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
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corrosion
Norway29 Posts
On October 01 2012 06:21 debears wrote: @Corrosion So you're saying your going to jump to conclusions before reading? Also, how is there not town motivation in making thorough cases on scum reads, especially in single posts? If you don't care to read what other people have to say, then you have a choice to not read it. It's all in one post. You can easily tell when it begins and ends and find the next post. However, if you were town, you would most likely want to read thorough cases, since they take a lot of work on the postee's side and indicate that they actually care about the game. I most definitely followed up on Boson, since our arguments have stopped on the basis of repetitiveness. You haven't refuted my case against you. Instead, you FOS me. How can I follow it up when you don't make a defense of yourself? And Alsn hasn't looked over my case either yet or posted since then. How can I follow that case up? Nice FOS. Nice reasoning behind it. You asked me earlier if I could refute your case against me. I had to look it up, and it seems that to refute is the same as to object. As far as I'm concerned, I've addressed all the points in your post earlier. The things I disagree with, is your assumption that I thought it was unlikely for Kush to be scum and I've explained why. I also object to your notion that I was being suspicious of Darth early on N1. I'm just stating what town should do if they need to reevaluate their read on him later in the game. And I'd like you to elaborate on something for me. You make long posts with cases against several people. D1 you made a post with cases against Djo and Z-Boson. I don't see why you should pressure two different people at the same time like that. The same applies to your post where you make the case against me. You also mention Omninscient in the same post, and I don't think you've follow that up. The other thing with your posts, is that you seem to quote just about everything people say, overanalyse their posts, and you want them to respond to everything. This seems to be an attempt at cluttering up the thread. It's in fact somewhat similar to what Jacob did in NMMXXVII, but since you have some analysis it's slightly better. What I want to know, is why you're posting in this way. To me it looks like you're trying to spread chaos. What are you trying to achieve? | ||
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RemedySC
Canada176 Posts
@Corrosion Could you tell me what you think of this post from me earlier? On September 30 2012 08:32 RemedySC wrote: 3. Again I wasn't posting to defend Kush, Looking at Corrosion's filter, his first post about Kush is a case against DP, and looks to be defending Kush. Post in question - + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 04:29 corrosion wrote: I'm just going to address the "fight" between Darth and Kush. I'm going to focus on Darth for now. Looking more closely into Kush's contribution is something I think should be done well ahead of lynch time. I'm actually going to start by telling about some thoughts I had after reading my role PM. I was trying to figure out what players town should be focusing on. I had obsed NMMXXVII, and came to the conclusion that it might be reasonable to go after any player except Kush. I figured that Kush was going to make a lot of posts anyway, so I was thinking that we could get a good analysis of him without any early pressure. One of the first things Darth did was to antagonize Kush: + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 08:34 DarthPunk wrote: No it's not. It is simply a mechanism to get the discussion going and allows scum to seem to participate and to potentially mislynch an inactive townie. Any more talk of policy will get you FoS'd. I'm thinking that this could easily be an attempt to start a fight that would result in derailing the thread. Kush responded the way I expected him to, and these two posters exchanged arguments back and forth. In the middle of this, Darth made a remark against lurkers, but quickly changed his focus back on Kush. I don't see why he should make this comment at this time, since it wasn't going to get looked at while there was a fight going on. Shortly afterwards, Kush makes his supposed scum slip. Darth jumps on it, and shortly afterwards he posts about his previous mafia games. I've watched the game where he played cop, and seen that he and Shady argued a lot on D1. So I was thinking that this seems to be Darth's town meta. But I also asked myself why he did post about his previous games at this point in time. Maybe this was all intentional. Suppose he suddenly remembered that game. He might not have wanted people to look at those games earlier, but now he realized that if he posted them he would be able to establish a town read on himself. I'm not sure if this is a strong case against Darth at the moment. I would like some input from the more experienced players here. If Kush hadn't made that slip, I think the derailing argument would have looked strong. Now it doesn't look so strong, because we've actually gotten new information. I'm not saying that I'm sure the scum slip is an actual slip, but if it is and it results in a succesful lynch, I think town got very lucky. Scum usually wouldn't slip in such an obvious manner. His cases against Debears and Alsn are something that might reveal useful information, but I've not studied them closely yet. I still think that Kush seems more suspicious when everything is taken into consideration but with all the focus that has been on him, I'm sure someone else can post a decent case on him before we need to consider our first lynch. Than his next two posts about Kush are him "thinking Kush" and than "voting as implied in last post" + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 07:17 corrosion wrote: You're not seeing my points in the proper context. Now maybe you think my analysis is weak. I can understand that view. I haven't played in one of these before, so I'm not really good at seeing the difference between weak arguments and strong arguments. Some of the other posters in the thread encouraged new players to post, but maybe I should have waited awhile and tried to build a really solid case. I haven't made up mind yet, so I'll be voting tomorrow. I'm thinking Kush, but I'll browse the latest developments tomorrow and see if anything has changed by then. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 17:57 corrosion wrote: Good morning. I'm going to comment on a couple of things. + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 10:59 DarthPunk wrote: Addressing a few things that stood out to me. So yeah I went back through the thread to address this specifically. I was asked to post my previous mafia games. and then I did. And now that is some sort of attempt for me to use my meta to clear myself? Right. ... You're absolutely right. I see that you posted links to your previous games only a few minutes after Debears requested it. I missed this because I was just looking through your filter and didn't keep enough attention on the thread itself. My bad. I'm going to look at Stutter's case against Kush and other recent developments. For now, I'll vote as I implied in my last post. ##Vote Kushm4sta Than after he votes, he says - You didn't contribute any information about Kush, and voted on the premise that you were "thinking Kush". Shortly after you state that you don't think the case is strong at all. Could you elaborate more on that? On Omni I have a 60/40 Scum/Town read on him. Waiting for his reply to my post, and i'll go from there. | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
First of all the following statement: Alsn's first post before the game. Everyone, if you do not know the depth of Alsn's focus and intelligence (or at least what it seems like to me) and stubborness, look at his posts from pregame and the obs qt from last game. If he was town, I would be sure that he would put his skills to work and actually attempt to be nked. Yes, please do. Especially the QT. Just ask SDM how brilliant I was in that /obs, we were all over the place in that QT. We kept making wild accusations left, right and center and they were mostly wrong. Not until day three or something did we have the slightest clue who to suspect, and then partly due to the fact that keirathi had quoted marv and spoiled it for us. This just makes me feel like he wants to suck up to me in order to make me drop my suspicions. I also think however that debears was quite successful as scum last game. I particularly went to consider his case against thrawn, which is very similar to the way he has been constructing cases in this game. Massive posts pointing out inconsistencies and errors, but not much in the way of explaining what's so scum motivated by that. On October 01 2012 05:37 corrosion wrote: There's some content in your post, but you've been making huge cases against several people without following up on them. As far as I can see, all you have achieved is to clutter up the thread. The other person that I've seen that clutters up the thread is Alsn. I've not read his last post yet, because it's tiring to read his posts. I've not read your case on him either. Right now I don't see any town motivation for your behavior. This post by corrosion actually seems quite apt and I realize that I've probably been overestimating how useful it is to try and explain myself down to the very least detail. It strikes me that while corrosion said it in a pretty blunt way that suggests he doesn't want to read what people say, my posts could definitely have been shorting and more to the point.' Conclusion There are other things I could point to in debears case, In general I get the feeling that he is doing the exact same thing to me that he did against Z-BosoN, making massive cases where if people read the entire thing, they're bound to find something they agree with. This feels like his meta from the final parts of NMMXVII, so I'm now convinced that debears is scum. ##Vote: debears | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On October 01 2012 05:56 Omniscient4983 wrote: Thoughts on night actions: I'm guessing scum targeted Darth, and the medic saved him. He was the obvious candidate for NK, but the mafia tried to kill him anyway despite there being a high chance that a medic would be on him. This means that scum is desperate to get Darth out of the game. Why? Not only was he correct about Kush, but he gave his 3 top scum reads during the night in this order: Debears Djodref Alsn From my perspective: since scum targeted Darth, one of his three reads has a high likelihood of being correct. If he was headed in the wrong direction with these reads, scum would have taken out someone else and let him lead us astray. Attempting to NK Darth was a huge risk, but I believe it's one scum had to take because he was so on track, and having him alive would spell their doom in the end. What does everyone else think? I’ve never liked the early day WIFOM speculating. Like this reasoning, thinking the failed NK might incriminate Djo, Alsn and/or Debears. Even if it was a valid argument (it’s really not) it doesn’t help us at all. It can easily turn into a one way ticket to slipville for blue roles though. The blues seems to be doing just fine so I think we should keep this to a minimum. | ||
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corrosion
Norway29 Posts
I'll contact my coach and ask what I should do the rest of the day. Right now, I'm planning to either lurk or just not read the thread at all. I'll make my vote now, in case I don't return. If I feel like it, I might come back and try to change my vote in a way that I feel is beneficial to my faction. There isn't any single individual that strikes me as significantly scummier than any other, so here you go: ##Vote no-lynch I plan to make one more post where I state my current read on some of the people and actions in the thread before I stop. Feel free to discuss my actions, but I don't think I'll respond to any requests. (I decided to make this post before I read Remedy's post in case anyone wonders) | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On October 01 2012 21:46 Alsn wrote: Yes, please do. Especially the QT. Just ask SDM how brilliant I was in that /obs, we were all over the place in that QT. We kept making wild accusations left, right and center and they were mostly wrong. Not until day three or something did we have the slightest clue who to suspect, and then partly due to the fact that keirathi had quoted marv and spoiled it for us. This just makes me feel like he wants to suck up to me in order to make me drop my suspicions. I will not be held accountable for the insanity this cluster fuck might cause to its readers, but the obs qt is here. The inaccuracy of his reads was quite astounding iirc, but I still think he did better than me  | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
I’m feeling a bit uneasy going for a Djo lynch and for now I’m leaning towards Alsn or Debears being the better candidates. Both have been posting a metric shit ton lately so I've got my hands full going through everything. I’m looking to complete that half-finished thought I threw out on Alsn yesterday and have a better idea of which lynch I’m liking later today. | ||
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corrosion
Norway29 Posts
Kushm4sta I'm going to address his actions after he gave up. I'd assume that his actions after giving up were still mafia motivated. If he implied that Debears is mafia, I would not put too much faith in that. He also gave up a reasonably long time before the deadline. I'm not sure it's worthwhile to overanalyse this, but maybe there's some mafia motivated reason behind this. I honestly don't know. Darthpunk Just because I might a stupid case against him, doesn't mean that it's not possible to make a good case based on his D1 actions. His attempt to claim being saved by a medic is something that would be interesting to analyze. I would strongly advice against anyone roleclaiming based on this statement. Don't roleclaim unless you think it's really advantageous for town. I kinda feel like the atmosphere right now isn't very good for town. I do think Darth is town, but I would not see myself blind on that assumption. Remedy I found it interesting that his first post followed the same template as Kush, but I guess it might be bad to base too much on such an association case. I think the only good posts he's made, are his cases against me. I do feel that it could be town motivation behind focusing on me. It resembles OMGUS, but I think those posts look townish. Djodref My third post was an attempt at making him commit to an explanation. He said he hadn't prepared because he was busy (work). Now he can be held accountable for that later. The reason I didn't leave it up to Debears to pressure him, was that I thought Debears was being too ambitious by "going after" several people at once. I have not looked closely at Djodref's action later in the game, but I see that others have been working on a case. Z-Boson He was one of my biggest suspects early on. I didn't like his apparent OMGUS of Debears. I find some of his posts confusing and unclear. When he replied to my "case" against DarthPunk, I thought he was overanalysing everything I wrote instead of focusing on one thing at a time. I also felt that he jumped to conclusions, when I thought my intentions should be quite clear from my post (like his first issue). He also failed to acknowledge that the post was made only a few minutes after Stutter's case on Kush. Right now, I think that his posts are probably the result of him trying to accomplish a lot of stuff in a short time (meaning that the quality of his posts isn't great). Darth hinted that his behavior fit his town meta from earlier games. I considered checking this, to make up my own opinion but I never got around to it. Right now, I don't really have a good read on him Debears As I said earlier, I feel that he spreads his focus on too many players, and are unable to follow up on them. Additionally I think long posts and overanalysing is cluttering up the thread and making it difficult for town players too keep up with the thread. I'm also thinking that he has had a tendency to shift his focus between weak players after people started to pressure him. It's possible that he's following his convictions, but it could also be a desperation move from a hard pressed mafia. I don't put too much weight on Kush's implied "scum team 4 lyfe" statement. I also think the "scum slip" posted by Z-Boson isn't very strong evidence. Debears was nominated as MVP for scum last game even though he had an early slip, so I'd think he wouldn't make blatant slips this time around. I'm actually going to elaborate on his "Please pm Marv for help": If the player is town, his coach is Marv. If the player is scum, he might be dissuaded from going to the coach since his coach isn't Marv. If Djo is really retarded, he might scum slip in his response. Maybe this isn't enough to justify the slip, but I don't think Debears is the kind of player that slips blatantly. Because Debears hasn't played town earlier, it's difficult to guess how his town meta looks like. Right now, I think he's creating a bad atmosphere with his posting. From my point of view, this is the strongest indicator of him being mafia. I think he needs to give a good explanation about this. Alsn I haven't looked too closely at his contributions. It's tiring to read his posts. I think they clutter up the thread. He has also tried to focus on "lurkers". I don't think the way he's been doing this suggests strong town motivation. Right now, I'd vote Debears or Alsn. If I'm not replaced, I'll try to check in later and make a vote. Otherwise, I wish you all good luck. | ||
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corrosion
Norway29 Posts
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On October 01 2012 13:37 Z-BosoN wrote: + Show Spoiler + This was one massively deluded post. I couldn't have been any clearer on my case against debears. 1)My case presented two main arguments, and one supporting argument that includes a bunch of shit that can feasibly come from a scum. Argument 1) His stance on kush after a direct FOS. Argument 2) His 180 on Djoref. I have made these both very clear in my case. You are acting as if I didn't bring up his 180 on Djoref. Your only "original" argument that could arguably mean something includes him being defensive. That's actually the one thing he has going for him, he's defended himself and still managed to make cases, more cases than you. I started answering this post topic by topic but quickly figured out that it had so much uselessness, so much pointlessness, and so much gibberish that I simply couldn't continue answering straight up. I get emotional when I feel someone is talking too much crap, but that does not automatically make my entire case based on emotion. In this post you've managed to: a) 2)give me a town read based on my "emotion" and "confirmation bias" while throwing my case to shit and then actually using one of it's main arguments. b) make a weaker case against debears, in what seems to be a weakass attempt to justify your vote c) 3)not defend yourself against one certain post I made. Are you gonna say that it's confirmation biased too? This post reeks of mafia mentality. Why? 4)You accuse me of making weak cases based on emotion and confirmation bias. You feel the need to say that this makes me townie. You are trying to discredit me, right after I've made an entire case against you. But you don't want to make it look like you are defending a high priority target like debears, so you go ahead and try to find some other things you can say against him so it can seem like you are genuinely after him. 1)And I've tried to make myself clear that those two points are one of the few points you actually make out of your massive argument with debears that I agree with from your cases. My point wasn't that your conclusion that debears was scum was necessarily incorrect, but that you've included a lot of reasons for suspecting him that was on very shaky grounds. In particular, I'm thinking about the first few exchanges between the two of you and also your need to make up a reason for why almost every single line he says is scummy when it's clear as day that not all of them are. 2)No, I chose to point out what I agree with because they were among the few things you said that actually made any sense to me whatsoever. I discredited the rest of your case against him because I felt they were based on emotion, not reality. 3)No, if you had actually read what I've said recently, I made a ton of mistakes in my reasoning during the early stages. You painted that picture quite clearly, I have nothing more to say. If people don't think it makes sense to me that I would have been suspicious of you and DP due to me thinking my original arguments were sound, then I don't know what to say. I've clarified that my scum reads D1 were you and DP, but when I spent time trying to make cases against you, I realised how grave my mistakes had been. 4)And lastly I want to comment on this and clarify that I most certainly was not trying to discredit your case against me. It points out a bunch of flaws and inconsistencies in my reasoning and as I've explained, they were caused by my mistaken belief of how early D1 transpired. I was disputing your case against debears, because honestly, it wasn't a case as much as a few good points in a massive amount of conjecture. You responded to literally everything he said and added a reason for why it could be mafia motivated. How is that not confirmation bias? To sum up, your case against me does make me look scummy. The reasons that it does though is that you and DP and others have refused to believe my claims of intent. I've stated several times that I based my original target choices on gut reads towards their posts. If you don't agree that your initial intentions for attacking debears seem convoluted at this point I don't know what to say anymore. Then the rest of my arguing that day was because of a simple misunderstanding where I had mistakenly thought you had been on Darth's side early D1 with regards to attacking kush, making me feel like you both had very scummy reasons for arguing against me. I will leave it at that, if anyone is interested in looking at my filter with those things in mind then I thank you, because I realise at this point that my filter is getting pretty damn big. If nothing else, I ask that people please read the italicized part before they jump to conclusions, although most of it I have tried to say already but it seems like people haven't noticed them. I'm getting really tired of defending myself at this point because while I haven't exactly found that I consider scummy, it's not for a lack of trying. | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
If nothing else, I ask that people please read the italicized part before they jump to conclusions, although most of it I have tried to say already but it seems like people haven't noticed them. I'm getting really tired of defending myself at this point because while I haven't exactly found that I consider scummy, it's not for a lack of trying. Should be: If nothing else, I ask that people please read the italicized part before they jump to conclusions, although most of it I have tried to say already but it seems like people haven't noticed them. I'm getting really tired of defending myself at this point because while I haven't exactly found much that I consider scummy, it's not for a lack of trying. | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
I'd like you to respond to RemedySC's questions, but I'd also like to ask you about the following quote: On September 29 2012 01:46 Omniscient4983 wrote: What made you suspect that stutters suddenly jumped the kush bandwagon? At that point there wasn't even much of a wagon to jump onto. Yes, Darth had been pressuing kush pretty hard, but other than that people had been mostly cautious at that stage. I would argue that Stutters and SDM actually caused the wagon.@stutters I'm inclined to agree here. Seems like you kind of jumped on the anti-Kush bandwagon without much thought. Admittedly, I didn't like his early play either, but I'm interested in hearing what you have to say concerning it. | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On October 01 2012 21:46 Alsn wrote: Ok, reading debears case against me from yesterday I'm pretty sure I can go along with a lynch on him. I'd like to preface it by saying I've examined most players now, and so far I have yet to find a bigger scum read than what I'm now convinced I have on debears. First of all the following statement: Yes, please do. Especially the QT. Just ask SDM how brilliant I was in that /obs, we were all over the place in that QT. We kept making wild accusations left, right and center and they were mostly wrong. Not until day three or something did we have the slightest clue who to suspect, and then partly due to the fact that keirathi had quoted marv and spoiled it for us. This just makes me feel like he wants to suck up to me in order to make me drop my suspicions. I also think however that debears was quite successful as scum last game. I particularly went to consider his case against thrawn, which is very similar to the way he has been constructing cases in this game. Massive posts pointing out inconsistencies and errors, but not much in the way of explaining what's so scum motivated by that. This post by corrosion actually seems quite apt and I realize that I've probably been overestimating how useful it is to try and explain myself down to the very least detail. It strikes me that while corrosion said it in a pretty blunt way that suggests he doesn't want to read what people say, my posts could definitely have been shorting and more to the point.' Conclusion There are other things I could point to in debears case, In general I get the feeling that he is doing the exact same thing to me that he did against Z-BosoN, making massive cases where if people read the entire thing, they're bound to find something they agree with. This feels like his meta from the final parts of NMMXVII, so I'm now convinced that debears is scum. ##Vote: debears Alsn, you misunderstood what I was stating in my case against you. You have yet to make any real contribution to the thread. In the qt, you were making a scum team list constantly. You have yet to do that. The most extent you've gone so far is "debears looks scummy" up until the time you vote for me. Your vote is based on the fact that I make long posts (which if you look at last game you could say meta, however, you have no town meta to judge). It could just be that it's my style. I want to give an indepth look at the two that look most scummy to me. Also, I believe you and Corrosion are overlooking the fact that Z-Bo asked me for my thoughts on the four lurkers mentioned in Alsn's post. I looked over them and corrosion came off scummy. His responses aren't helping. That's why I made the case against him. I was pretty sure I put in how your lack of scumhunting and constant talking about the exchange of Z-bo and me is mafia motivated. The mafia motivation is to look like your scumhunting without doing so. The town motivation for not scumhunting is nonexistent. And saying you have a "gut scum read" on someone then dropping it when your weak accusations fail is not scumhunting. Do you have any actual scum reads that you'd like to share besides me? | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
On October 01 2012 23:48 debears wrote: That was an obs QT. I was commenting as an observer, not as a player. If you really wanted to know how I play you should check my last actual game. I never committed to anyone as scum in that game either, for the same reasons as now. I am not confident at all that I have found any scum yet. The only one's that are giving me scum vibes are you and some of the lurky posters, but having gone through their filters I keep coming up with any compelling reasons that I can't hand wave away in my head as "this guy is probably new".Alsn, you misunderstood what I was stating in my case against you. You have yet to make any real contribution to the thread. In the qt, you were making a scum team list constantly. You have yet to do that. The most extent you've gone so far is "debears looks scummy" up until the time you vote for me. Right now I can only go on the fact that I find you scummier than anyone else, but I'm actually quite scared of the possibility that some of the people I think are town might really just be clever scum. I'm not all that convinced about you to be honest but if I had to wager I'd give you flipping scum something like a 40% chance. I need more information and for now I'd be content with confirming your alignment. | ||
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