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@Djo
On October 01 2012 02:09 Djodref wrote:
@debears
Well I would disagree about sheeping. Nobody so far has pointed out the defense you got from kush and the posts where he implies that you are his scumbuddy.
So why do you think kush was defending you ?
@everyone
Before going to bed, I would like to state that my guess for the scumteam is now debears/alsn. I think Z-BosoN has the right of it. I'm asking for a vig shot on debears !
Also Remedy is too much of a lurker. I don't think we are going to encounter lylo or mylo situations in this game but I hope that we can get something of him before this...
You have been sheeping. Look at SDM's case on you
On September 30 2012 22:03 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:And to clarify a couple of things about my case on Djo now that I'm up to date on the thread: 1. Latching on to others reads: As newbie scum it's really hard to make original cases. I had first hand experience Cubu and Imcasey in XXVI. The only case Imcasey could make was against our scum buddy Xatalos (that's quite easy because he knew he was scum). We had a similar situation with Debears in XXVII, at least in the beginning where the only case he could make was a defense of Thrawn, which is easy to do because he knew knew he was town (well, he flipped SK, but Debears couldn't know). 2. How can anyone buy into Kush's defense that easily? A newbie town is usually very suspcicious and it was a really silly defense, at the very best null. Using "player" and "people" sounds awkward? How isn't that an obvious lie? + Show Spoiler +On September 28 2012 20:12 kushm4sta wrote:
2. My supposed scumslip: huh? What else should I have called you? Player? Person? Maybe but to me those things sound awkward. Townie just seemed like the most non awkward word to use.
Innocent until proven guilty. That's how we do it in America bro.
As for the other lurkers, I don't find Remedy suspicious, rather the opposite although his post count is still low. Nothing really stuck out to me the same way Djo did when reading Omn's and Corrosion's filter.
Also, the reason why no one is addressing kush's "scum for life" and "I saved you" posts to me is because the argument is pure WIFOM.
Kush was scum. For that reason, we have to look at scum motivations
1) He was giving away his partner and throwing the game away. I believe he didn't give up on the game since he was mafia. Otherwise, he would most likely be punished for his actions in the game. Also, he is experienced. He isn't a dumb noob that would give up. He was willing to take the sack as scum last game when people started reading him as scum (although it never came to that).
2) He was attempting to set up someone who had "soft defended" him so that it would lead to a mislynch the next day.This point can be easily turned into WIFOM.
Why would you believe the words of a confirmed scum? The purpose of mafia is to disrupt the the town and turn townies against each other. Number two fulfills that purpose.
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Okay, I think the Debears case has some good evidence, but there is one things that bugs me about z-boson's case against debears. I can see how debears comment points out Djo's alignment here-
On September 29 2012 01:55 debears wrote:+ Show Spoiler +@Djoref On September 28 2012 15:22 Djodref wrote:
@DarthPunk
For your information, i consider the comments of debears on my posts legitimate. Let me say that I even don't like them. Currently reading the guides and older game analysis. Please pm marv for help. The coaches are great
But for a while now there is one post of boson's that has stuck out to me.
On September 28 2012 09:43 Z-BosoN wrote:
@Stutters
I'd like to see more posts from you. In XXIV you showed you were capable of making decent posts as town, so I encourage you to post eve more here.
I feel like that is the same type of post as debears made.
Also had a little emergency this morning. False alarm though, so i'm here now.
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You guys are trying to catch people with the same slip when the circumstances aren't the same. That was z bosons first(iirc) post of the game and that was pretty clearly nothing more than.friendly talk at the start. Ask yourself what motivation would a Scum have for posting that? Kush posted a thing saying DP was town while DP was his biggest suspect. I'm still not sold on the debears "scumslip" for the same reason although there is enough other stuff on debears that it seems more likely.
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Disclaimer!+ Show Spoiler + My original post included the full spoilered quotes of their conversations. Unfortunately, TL got mad at me and said something wussy about a 100000 character post limit, pfah. For that reason, sourcing of my statements are done as links.
So, like I said before, I'm working under the theory that debears and Z-BosoN are either both town, or only one of them is scum. I think this because they both committed to attacking each other very early on in the game, even before it was obvious that kush was going to be lynched. They also did not stop doing this just because kush was getting lynched, which suggests to me that either both of them are convinced that it's important that people pay attention to their case, or that one of them is and the other one is just trying to defend himself.
More importantly, if both of them were scum they would be drawing attention to themselves at the same time that their final teammate was getting torn to shreds, which I can not believe to be true.
With that in mind I decided to look at their feud once again to see if there were any tells that one of them was more scummy than the other.
First, the entire thing begins with Z-BosoN in my view completely misrepresenting what SDM said in order to throw a FoS on debears. This as some kind of response to debears initial suspicions of Z-BosoN found here. At this point I believe that was just Z-BosoN misreading SDM, and thus finding scumminess where there was none. But it leads to a lot of discussion and material for us to analyze, so that's all well and good, I'm afraid I might have misrepresented it at the time though, not taking the time to look at what happened properly in context.
Debears then responds with this post where he says SDM's opinions on lurker policy was there for anyone to see a good 2 hours before Z-BosoN misrepresented him, and also that he thought Z-BosoN was being inconsistent himself(which he was and later admits to). Again, this is merely meant to illustrate that Z-BosoN's original case on debears was in fact weak. Debears should definitely not be considered scummy based on that alone.
Then we have the following post where debears again very calmly and reasonably explains to Z-BosoN that he considers his case/FoS to be weak and OMGUS. I agree with that. So far, I'm finding myself exactly on the same side of the argument as I did then. Z-BosoN was clearly out of line in criticising debears. I don't think I'm entirely at fault for thinking he was "trying to shut him up" at around that time.
This is also where I have joined the debate, making Z-BosoN reply to my own comments in between their feud, I think my original case has been analyzed to death though, so I won't mention it further. At this point both of them start to also focus on kush since this is around the time when DarthPunk had made his case against kush's behaviour and his slip. Z-BosoN had responded earlier to DP saying he isn't sold on it being a scum slip, but mostly just not liking the way kush was acting.(Source)
Z-BosoN then posts his first major case against debears. In it, he attacks debears for perceived inconsistencies but looking at it closely, I find that most of the arguments Z-BosoN put forward are pretty weak. Mostly due to the fact that I found the posts that Z-BosoN are referencing in his case to be very reasonable and without any obvious scum motivation. Debears also addresses this case later on.
Now the kush bandwagon is in full swing, both players ask kush to shape up at different stages, Z-BosoN initially, then debears when he gets back into the thread after a 5 hour gap. I don't know if this gap is significant as it did happen during debears' primetime. Which means he probably wasn't asleep but I'm unwilling to draw any conclusions at this time simply because I have no proof one way or the other. I can't find any other reason for their posting about kush at this stage other than the fact that at this point, kush was a highly uncontroversial target, most active players in the thread at this stage are all imploring kush to shape up if he is town and for good reason.
Eventually, debears responds to Z-BosoN's case against him in the following post. In this post(it and Z-BosoN's eventual response are both massive, every time I read them I find out more things that are damning/exonerating about the two of them) he again actually makes a lot of sense to me, with the major thing I don't really buy being his 180 on Djodref. Especially since I don't really consider Djodref to have posted in a way that would suggest to me that he should be excused. In my mind all of the lurky players are still somewhat suspicious, and has been from the start, at the very best they are null reads, just dropping a line about coaches and then dropping the matter seems scummy to me. Also, I find the fact that debears has pretty much made no comments about anyone other than Z-BosoN and kush once the wagon was started. For all his talk about not tunnelling kush, he sure seems to be tunnelling pretty hard. Or at the very least, seems intent on defending himself more than anything else. His post with regards to the lurkers came only once Z-BosoN specifically asked him to do so. He did promise a case against me however, so I guess I'll start popping the popcorn.
Finally I would like to address Z-BosoN's reply to debears final defense if I can call it that. (clicky) Here he addresses debears final post, a post which like I just pointed out says reasonable things.
This all leads me to believe Z-BosoN is suffering from massive confirmation bias. He has for some reason decided that debears is scum a long time ago, and now every single argument debears makes is scummy to him. I'm inclined to think Z-BosoN is town because of this, confirmation bias isn't something scum would suffer from, since they don't need to believe anything, they know.
It is however not very helpful, because even if debears is scum, him defending himself against what I consider to be unjustified criticism is hardly something he can be blamed for. I would however like to see him post more about other players than Z-BosoN, and hopefully he will have time to do so now since Z-BosoN has at least seemingly decided to let things rest for a while, which I think can only be good for us.
So to end this, I would like to put a FoS on debears not based on Z-BosoN's case, but based on the following points, as hinted at above.
- debears' has mainly used his posting to defend himself. This is not unreasonable on its own, especially since I myself have pointed out that he was unjustifiably attacked at some points.
- His inconsistency with regards to djodref and Z-BosoN. Neither of them really had convincing arguments to counter his initial suspicions of them, yet he went after only Z-BosoN while forgiving Djodref. I'm thinking he might have pounced on Z-BosoN's willingness to post using rushed statements along with taking the chance of free-riding on my own suspicions that I had at the time.
- His cases against Z-BosoN have not really pointed out all that much scumminess in my mind. They have just been about refuting Z-BosoN's attacks. So I must then conclude that his willingness to lynch Z-BosoN over kush is either scum motivated or some kind of involuntary OMGUS.
So to sum this up, I'm thinking that Z-BosoN is town, his play is just too emotional and full of confirmation bias to me to suggest anything else and I do not think that he would or even could fake that. Debears might be scum, but I don't think we have enough proof to say that he is scummy enough to lynch D2, not yet anyway. In my mind he still has a path to redemption and I think we should at least give him that possibility as I'm not convinced that they can't both be town.
Given that, my town reads right now amount to DarthPunk for obvious reason, Z-BosoN as stated above and SDM(mostly a feel read right now, but he has made sense from what I've seen so far) and I'm leaning slightly scummy on debears. That being said, I will probably spend the next couple of days focusing on the players that I have not mentioned in this thread. Mostly because at this point, I consider the debears vs Z-BosoN case closed unless something earth shattering happens.
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And that took me just about 6 hours. In the end the only thing I managed to conclude was that I think we need more information. Hopefully I can find something more conclusive during the next couple of days, assuming I don't get NKd but I find that hard to believe right now.
I'll just end with the fact that I think we definitely need to focus on the people who have posted very little because I suspect there are scum to be found there. I'm just a little shocked by how little scumminess I'm reading so far but that probably just means that the people I've been focusing on aren't scum, but we'll see. I'll be checking in for another couple of hours on and off but nothing major before I sleep.
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EBWOP: I misstated one of my points, I didn't mean that debears wanted to lynch Z-BosoN over kush, as that's not something he said. I just meant that his general willingness to see Z-BosoN as a lynch target was surprising to me given the circumstances, especially considering that most of his arguing with Z-Boson had been calm refutations, not attacks on how scummy Z-BosoN looked.
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I had a look at the cases Z-boson and Debears made against me. I thought both looked messy. I still do. Now Boson didn't jump on my post immediately, and others (Darth?)say his posting fits his town meta, so I'm going to assume that his motivation was scum hunting for now. Debears case is a huge wall of text without much actual content. I think it's suspicious. Is he trying to clutter up the thread and make chaos? I can see mafia motivation behind this.
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Deadline's up, no more posting until after the Day Post please.
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So now it's time for my case on Alsn. Z-Bo has posted a good case. Now, I want to add onto a key element that I feel Z-bo missed: Alsn's scumhunting (or lack thereof).
On September 22 2012 06:53 Alsn wrote:I think it's high time to try and get myself NK'd again.  /in
Alsn's first post before the game. Everyone, if you do not know the depth of Alsn's focus and intelligence (or at least what it seems like to me) and stubborness, look at his posts from pregame and the obs qt from last game. If he was town, I would be sure that he would put his skills to work and actually attempt to be nked.
Alright, on to the posts since the start of the game.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 28 2012 17:56 Alsn wrote:Wow, upon reading the thread I realise that kush has been following the exact pattern I just now specified to be the way not to play if he wanted to absolve himself in my eyes. In fact, I could go back to my initial posts to him in NMMXXV saying almost the exact same thing. As such, I think I have no choice but to cast a: FoS kushm4stakush, in order for me to let up, I want you to stop it with your ridiculous knee-jerk play and actually point out why you think other people are scummy as opposed to why you yourself is so obviously town. While the following idiom is quite ironic in a forum game, actions speak louder than words and you defending yourself is just that, meaningless words. Start proving to everyone that you are concerned with finding scum instead of worrying about your silly streak. That being said, I think everyone else is jumping the gun here, kush is an extremely easy target to pick on, especially since he almost never seems to think before he posts. The scumslip that Darth and others pointed out can definitely be seen as damning. However, I am not inclined to agree with the following post from Darth: Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 13:46 DarthPunk wrote:I am not flaming Kush. I am legitimately scum hunting. The contrast in this situation, to the one with shiao, are so stark that there is no point even bringing it up. You will know when I am flaming when you see it, and even then it is not really that big a scum tell. I can tell the difference between Scummy town and actual scum, and it is not 'illogical' to be able to do this. Kush right now is not scummy town. He has slipped HUGELY. He is conforming to his previous scum meta. Seriously...
There is no explanation for his town read on me. The only reason he would say that is if he was scum. This last part seems to overly simplify the matter to me. The only reason? I myself can see a few reasons, but I would like kush to reply himself before I comment further as I don't want to give him an easy out. I can state for the record that unless kush shapes up considerably, I'm all in favour of lynching him. Simply because him playing like his normal self would be a liability for town later on due to his inclination to just defend himself over hunting scum. However, I definitely want to give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to actually try and show that he has town's best interest in mind. So until then, while I definitely would like everyone to share their reads on kush so far, that is not enough for D1. We need to start exploring different possibilities because if we decide to lynch kush and he flips green, spending all of D1 talking about him will put us back at square one minus two townies. I'll make another post within an hour or two on another topic as I think I've made myself perfectly clear on where I stand on kush, but right now I need breakfast.
His point is fair and I agreed upon it. Everyone focusing on one person day 1 is usually not good. However, his later actions did not really follow this statement.
Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 21:11 Alsn wrote:
Bleh, and now I realised that that's a pretty bad summary of what I wanted to say.
Summary of my case:
I feel that Z-BosoN is attacking people for the sake of attacking them and in a way that seems to be discouraging healthy discussion. As pointed out by my argument he seems to want debears to just shut up and not share his thoughts.
Him attacking SDM for a post obviously made just as a "Hello, let's have a nice game" type of post before heading off to bed just reinforces this idea to me that he is accusing people for dubious reasons.
His cases against Z-Bo and DP were the only scumhunting during d1. His initial problem with Z-Bo was a point already addressed by me in terms of the post at SDM. This post in itself isn't a big deal. However, he continues to keep the argument the same and becomes stuck on the idea.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 28 2012 21:31 Alsn wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 21:14 DarthPunk wrote:On September 28 2012 21:11 Alsn wrote:
Bleh, and now I realised that that's a pretty bad summary of what I wanted to say.
Summary of my case:
I feel that Z-BosoN is attacking people for the sake of attacking them and in a way that seems to be discouraging healthy discussion. As pointed out by my argument he seems to want debears to just shut up and not share his thoughts.
Him attacking SDM for a post obviously made just as a "Hello, let's have a nice game" type of post before heading off to bed just reinforces this idea to me that he is accusing people for dubious reasons. So. Why have you not FoS'd debears then? Uh, what? For what? I admit I haven't looked all that closely on debears posting since I mostly looked at his filter to try and figure out what Z-BosoN was referring to, but as far as I can see he has done three things so far, he has pointed out that he doesn't agree with your tunneling of kush. I find that a reasonable thing to say, although not overwhelmingly useful other than as a reminder to you that there are other players in this game(which you have obviously noted by now since you are questioning me!) His other two arguments of note are against Z-BosoN which is basically the conversation line which I base my case upon, as well as calling out Djodref as someone who posts a lot but says little. The latter also seems perfectly reasonable from where I'm standing and as you must have noticed, I'm against Z-BosoN on the subject of the former.
This post was addressed to DP. Yet again, you are really just repeating points and just agreeing with my views on the matter and defending me.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 00:24 Alsn wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 22:39 DarthPunk wrote:On September 28 2012 22:03 Alsn wrote:On September 28 2012 21:38 DarthPunk wrote:On September 28 2012 21:31 Alsn wrote:
he has pointed out that he doesn't agree with your tunneling of kush. I find it astonishing that you 'interpret' debears' post that way in context of your view of Z-Boson. The way in which you paraphrase things whilst obscuring the truth/ put your own angle on things has me very concerned. Astonishing how? I would like you to explain what's so amazingly pro-town about tunneling kush from the very beginning. I find the risks of that approach to be very high from a town perspective. There are two scenarios: A) He flips green, and unless he during the day completely changed his character we will have almost no way of distinguishing who among the people who pushed for his lynch were scum and who were town. B) He flips scum, at this point I just don't find that likely enough to risk A) happening. That fact alone is enough for me to see that post of debears as entirely reasonable, since both of you at the time were basically calling out kush for every single post he was making(for good reason, but not if that's the only thing you are doing). I was not just looking at Kush. I was looking at the reactions to my case on kush also, Namely debears. As far as I am concerned Kush is scum and therefore it is best for town to lynch him. I like to focus on one thing at a time. Especially when he is incredibly scummy and has SCUM SLIPPED It is a common scum hunting technique and has been recommended in Several postgames. Obviously It was not to the exclusion of all others because I am now looking at you and debears. If there was nothing to go on I would have changed tac. Turns out he is scum. So I try and get him lynched. Savvy? On September 28 2012 22:03 Alsn wrote:
That fact alone is enough for me to see that post of debears as entirely reasonable, since both of you at the time were basically calling out kush for every single post he was making(for good reason, but not if that's the only thing you are doing). So you don't find Kush likely to flip scum? good to know. Z -Boson hardly called out kush. I made a case. I was not tunnelling. (but I see that is the misconception you are trying to present) If by some miracle he flips green there is still a lot of info to go off. Your premise iswrong and thus your conclusions are wrong. I was calling out Kush for good reason? and at the same time Debears was entirely reasonable in shutting that down? ##FoS ALSN Given the evidence so far no, I don't, and frankly I don't see why that's so hard to believe. Given his history, it should be easy to see for anyone that while he has different town and scum metas(as pointed out by Hapahauli in the obs QT of NMMXVII), his comments so far this game is entirely in line with the way he usually posts during D1. Basically just writing up whatever is on his mind. That to me doesn't really increase or decrease the chances of him flipping either way(but the setup of the game says all else being equal, 75% of the players are green, 25% are scum) Yes, you called him out for good reason because his arguments(like so many times before this game) make little to no sense. But right now the only thing I really agree actually points to him being scum is what you call his scum slip. I just do not agree with you of just how damning that statement is. The first thing that sprang to mind when I saw you quoting that was simply that townie was an odd word to use, why not use player? But a confirmed scum slip? Come on, it's not like he said something that is entirely outside the realm of possibility for a town player to say. "Townie" wouldn't be the word I'd use, but I just can't see it as that obvious a scum slip. I'll accept that you are not necessarily wrong for thinking so however. Given that there are no other developments then sure, I'll admit that there's at least a higher chance of kush being scum than a random lurker being scum. But I would really like it if we could at least try to get better odds than that. Best case scenario for me would be actually having everyone talk, present cases and opinions and if no one else presents themselves as scummy, then and only then will I roll the dice on kush. Remember, there are 3 scum, not only one. Who knows, if he's scum as you say, he might look even scummier by lynch time.The case being what it is with kush, I can see now that what you were doing wasn't tunneling per se. However, I think you are doing the very thing you are accusing me of doing where you say debears was trying to "shut down" the case against kush. Like I've said several times now, that's not at all how I interpreted it, only that we shouldn't limit ourselves to a single discussion topic which at the time I felt debears was trying to suggest. Something that I happen to agree with. Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 22:39 DarthPunk wrote:I made a case. I was not tunnelling. (but I see that is the misconception you are trying to present) If by some miracle he flips green there is still a lot of info to go off. Your premise iswrong and thus your conclusions are wrong. This statement makes little sense to me. You say you were not tunneling, which I can now appreciate as probably true, but up until recently was not clear at all to me(and probably not to anyone else either). You had made quite a lot of posts in a row with kush as the only topic, as well as trying to convince others in the thread that he absolutely, 100%, no doubt whatsoever must be scum. I didn't find it unreasonable that someone would point that fact out to you. My "premise" was simply that if I find an argument reasonable, someone else trying to poke holes in that argument might not have the same motivations as myself, thus they are suspicious. The bolded line is ridiculous however, especially in context with the sentence before it. What makes you so sure that we would have "a lot of info to go off" in the case of everyone tunneling kush and us lynching him? My A) vs. B) scenario that you are referring to was dependent on the hypothetical scenario of everyone tunneling kush(which I already explained seemed to be where things were going at the time). I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you misunderstood what I was trying to say instead of deliberately using a red herring to try and discredit me. With that in mind, based on your willingness to put yourself out there, I have a slight town read on you.
Looking at this post, let's keep in mind what Alsn has done at this point. He has defended me. He has defended Kush, playing off scumslip. His only scumhunt cases are against darth and z-bo. His case against darth is based off darth's hard tunneling of kush. His case on z-bo is Z-bo's post on SDM and Z-Bo's post on me.
Also, look at how he brings up "Everyone bring up a case and we'll look for other scummy people". Yet, he has failed to actually do the same. He now thinks Darth is town by suddenly changing his mind on the tunneling issue, even though he believes tunneling isn't good.
" I would like you to explain what's so amazingly pro-town about tunneling kush from the very beginning. I find the risks of that approach to be very high from a town perspective."
Now, I would like to move on to another topic with Alsn. He promises scumhunting and big posts. He wants everyone to make good cases about people other than kush. Yet, he doesn't actually follow through.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 17:40 Alsn wrote:Just now caught up and saw this post. Really? I Said I'd be back about 12 hours before lynch, I've been reading the thread for an hour which makes that statement pretty much exactly right. But your own comment on the other hand is from before I even said I'd be waking up and checking the thread. You are not making yourself look any better than when I first called you out for grasping at straws. Will be posting some pretty substantial posts(I suspect, based on what I've read so far) within the next couple of hours.
Here, he promises substantial posts. These are the next three posts.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 18:17 Alsn wrote:
First, I'd like to start things with stating so far D1 has pretty much lived up to my exact nightmare scenario that I speculated about when arguing with DP yesterday. Everyone is voting kush with only very little discussion about any other topic(mainly, the debears-boson exchange).
Looking at the vote count, the last official count says 7, and now corrosion added his vote for a total of 8. With myself that would be 9, the exact number of town in this game. From my point of view, unless kushm4sta, Djodref and Lesrah are the 3 scum, there are scum pushing this lynch.
Given that, I'm really starting to dislike this lynch. I agree however that kush has been mostly concerned with defending himself against perceived injustice rather than actually trying to hunt scum, this still does not convince me that he is scum. Lynching scum with an overwhelming majority D1 just seems like way too improbably. Sure, if we had to fight tooth and nail to get 7 votes, I might buy it, but that's not the case. It seems to me there must be scum sheeping onto this lynch.
Like I've stated before I can go along with the kush lynch, but I'd rather try and lynch my top scum read at this point and with the current developments, I see a kush lynch more as a last resort than my main scum read. Unfortunately, this argument is only available to people who have yet to vote and are town, as well as to scum since other than myself only scum are aware of my alignment. For everyone else, the "unless a, b and c are scum" argument will include me.
My argument is at least enough to convince myself, so I'll be scouring the thread for the next couple of hours to see if my "gut scum reads" so far have any merit and if so push that/those case(s) instead. If it turns out that they are going nowhere, I will vote kush. But I still feel we have enough time to at least have a discussion on the topic of "just wtf is going on here?!".
This post is odd. His main points are 1)There are scum voting for kush (duh) 2) He doesn't like the kush lynch and 3) He is going to try to lynch his top scum read and "scour the thread" for others.
There is nothing of substance in this post. He's just stating the obvious and promising more scumhunting.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 18:28 Alsn wrote:
A quick addendum, I'm aware that scum pushing the lynch does not exonerate kush since they could be bussing him. However, given the assumption that kush is scum and there are active scum among the voters, I just find it more likely that they would try and find another solution than bussing, especially since it's D1. That's my main reason for not being convinced that kush is scum.
The next post is nothing better. Nothing substantial. Just speculation on what the scum would do.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 18:29 Alsn wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2012 18:21 Djodref wrote:
@Alsn
I also voted for Kush for your information Right, I missed that, thanks for pointing it out. That just confirms it though, from my point of view there are scum pushing for his lynch. For everyone else out there, unless me, Lesrah and kush are the scumteam, there are scum among the voters.
Yet again, he's repeating his points. Nothing substantial. His promise of something was not kept. Still no actual scumhunting.
On September 29 2012 20:02 Alsn wrote:EBWOP again: Just realized it, WIFOM what? How the hell is my analysis of the vote numbers WIFOM. It's logical that from the point of view of a townie that has voted, the only way kush is scum, is if me and Lesrah are scum too. It's simple math. Given that I have more information than all the townies that have voted so far(I know my own alignment), I can of course conclude that there must be scum that voted for kush, regardless if kush is scum or not. So could Lesrah if he turns out to be town(but as things are looking now, he will probably be replaced/modkilled so he wouldn't participate in this lynch regardless). Do you even know what WIFOM is? I did not arbitrarily keep arguing back and forth, I made a logical conclusion from the information available.
Ok. This post just repeats his earlier points.
Now comes his change of opinion
+ Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 21:15 Alsn wrote:
I've been doing some soul searching and I'm starting to agree that it's not worth it to try and push any other cases right now.
Mostly because my entire premise was that I was thinking it to be unlikely for kush to be scum. I realise that after trying to put into words why I think that is so, I have nothing other than the fact that I "feel" him to be town, which is a really stupid reason for absolving him. I thought I could back it up by saying he's been pressured to hard, there's no way he's responsible for not scum hunting. But in the end, I can't find a logical reason to forgive him if I exclude my own gut feeling from the equation.
I think now that my best option is to hold on to whatever small reads I have(because while I have some suspicions, I don't think they are rock solid) until after the lynch is over. Because at least then, we will have more information.
So for now, although my gut is screaming at me, I'll commit to voting for kush, mostly because most of what I said about BosoN has returned somewhat satisfactory answers, I really don't like the way a lot of people got away with not basically posting anything at all(I'm looking at you, Djodref, corrosion, Omniscient, RemedySC). I think that's probably what irks me the most, the thing I was most hoping would not happen, did happen.
##Vote: kushm4sta
Ok a "change of heart" changes his views on kush and scumhunting. I can understand changing his view on kush. However, he had been adamant that people push cases on people other than kush all day. Yet, it wasn't worth it anymore. Then, he says in the same post he doesn't like how those 4 got away with not posting? Why didn't he call them out if he wanted to scumhunt so bad? Why is he leaving the job up to others and just calling out people he wants to be looked at?
+ Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 21:28 Alsn wrote:
By the way, just to clarify about my vote.
I realised that my entire vote count argument falls apart if there's no compelling reason to believe kush to be town, and asking myself the following question kinda shocked me:
"What has kush done for town?"
I couldn't find an answer to that question, no matter how hard I looked. As such, I can't not vote for him.
The wording in the last statement is weird. It implies that he was looking for reasons to not vote kush.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 21:31 Alsn wrote:
Seriously, I need a break from this as I'm feeling indecisive as shit at the moment while I woke up brimming with confidence that I would find some scum today. I'll be checking in on the thread all the way until lynch, so I'll reply if you need me to, but I don't think I'll be making any monster posts.
Here he admits he did not scumhunt. He says he is indecisive.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 30 2012 04:39 Alsn wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2012 03:00 Z-BosoN wrote:
I urge everyone to read this exchange. My lines are in red.
He still feels the need to use the same elements he did initially: My case is OMGUS, it's weak, it's bad, etc.
This post comes off to me as cornered scum trying to squirm his way out, but that could be just me tunneling him hard. Everyone please take the time to read and see if you agree with me.
I actually find some of your arguments very compelling. I agree that his 180 on Djodref looks scummy, but I don't agree with your original argument that him making that case on both you and Djodref is inherently scummy just because the cases are similar. I however think that your pressuring has yielded fruit. I happen to agree that your initial feud with debears was on pretty shaky grounds, which is why I spoke out against you at that point. It may just have been me misinterpreting your tone/intentions, but nevertheless I feel most of the early-game arguments debears put forward were relatively sound, and you weren't necessarily in the right for attacking them. His responses do seem convoluted though. To be fair, I think his "scum slip"(the one where he all but proclaimed Djod town) is pretty much the exact same type of slip that kush committed. Basically, directly suggesting that he should pm marv could be seen as him knowing djod's alignment. But I think just as with the kush slip, it's definitely not 100%. It could be a typo, he could have just been lazy and not wanted to say marv/hapa, there could be many different reasons. Anything he says himself probably won't sway anyone though. I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more of an outcry about it. So to sum up, I disagree that debears is clearly wrong for saying that your initial case was weak, however, I feel like he has some pretty scummy explanations for some of his actions, particularly wrt Djodref. I think your case has gone from pretty nit picky to a rather strong case. So I think I'll withdraw my FoS on you, your explanation for your behaviour concerning SDM earlier was satisfactory, and I will probably have to go through your case against him at least one more time before I can be sure, but it seems to be pretty solid to me. I would like to see some input from the less active players with regards to the entire debears/boson debate. Because currently I'm having pretty much null reads on all of the following: Omniscient, RemedySC, Corrosion, Djodref(someone else remind me if there's anyone I've missed please). A few of them have posted slightly scummy or slightly town, but either way it's very difficult for me to make up my mind one way or the other right now. If we assume that kush wasn't trolling us with the "I'm red" part, then we have quite some time before we ever need to worry about mylo/lylo, but I'd still like for us to get there without either being forced to lynch 4 null-reading lurkers, or to have them left in the game at that stage.
Here is another worthless post. His whole point is "Z-bo's case may have validity". Then he gives us some reads, except they are 4 null reads. No scum hunting. Not any actual contribution.
+ Show Spoiler +On September 30 2012 19:18 Alsn wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2012 18:50 DarthPunk wrote:On September 30 2012 18:10 Alsn wrote:
Hi, just woke up, skimmed through the last couple of pages.
Not sure if you even want to know, but at the time of, as you say, act III - IV, I had a gut feeling that things were going way too easy for kush to be scum, and that made me doubt the motivations of DarthPunk, as well as the fact that I had found you pretty scummy from the day before. When I was going to make a case against either of you however, I only found the few questions I asked DP about, but which I then later found out was just him being rightfully(I thought he was out to get me for no apparent reason) suspicious of me.
Then as I went through your filter, you started to make more and more sense, just like I and everyone else has pointed out, your case against debears now has merit, which pretty much meant that I just didn't find you as scummy as I thought you would be. So yea, the two scum reads that I didn't actually have, weren't actually scummy. Trying to make a case against someone for no reason seemed like inherently anti-town, so I just gave up when I thought about just why I thought kush was town, what had he done that helped town? While I imagine being a victim like that would be pretty harsh, nothing he had done had tried to show that he really was a victim, so I went along with the lynch. I had to vote for someone.
That being said, this discussion helps no one, If you think I'm scummy, go ahead and think so, I won't be lynched for another 2,5 days either way so I'll have tons of time to make myself useful. Like I said to kush, actions speak louder than words, I don't expect anyone to judge me in any other way. I thought you had a town read on me? But after that I am one of your scum reads and you try to build a case on me? That sort of doesn't match up with the afore mentioned town read. Now you're just misunderstanding me, I had a gut scum read on you due to me feeling unjustifiably attacked. I didn't want to say that out loud while I was questioning you at the time. But like I explained when I examined your filter as well as when you replied to me, things became much clearer and thus I re-evaluated you.
Ah finally, he actually states a scum read. However, earlier he said he wanted to push a lynch for a top scum read. He didn't do that. A FOS isn't pushing a lynch. He never took a decisive "you're scum" stance day 1.
Alsn's whole day 1 was centered on kush being town, and mediating the conflict between me and Z-Bo. Where was the scumhunting? Where was the real contribution that he promised?
-----after just reading Alsn's big post----------
@Alsn
However, 1) My posting to defend myself day 1 was because I thought (and still do) that most of Z-Boson's case is dumb and confirmation bias (which you agree with me about according to your post.
2) I chose Z-Boson because they way he FOS'd me back was OMGUS to me. Djo is a noob. Z-Boson isn't. Z-Boson would know better to first, calll out a player for no reason early on and overstate that player's views. And two, FOS me with shitty reasoning.
3) My main problem with Z-Boson is that he was looking only at mafia motivations in his post (confirmation bias if he is town, if he is scum, trying to frame someone). Also, his association case about modwarnings was flat out unreasonable and follows WIFOM. Also, he was trying way too hard to lobby his case against me.
It seems the only real part of his argument that everyone agrees with is the pm marv post I addressed to Djo, which I have done my best to explain. I don't see his case as strong. Yet, he feels its the mother of all cases, calling it a "shitbomb" on me earlier. How can a townie be so sure of himself besides confirmation bias?
That said, Z-Boson has made a case against you which I agree with. He came off more reasonable today with the questions he asked me. For that, I do not have such a strong stance on him at this moment.
However, you seem a little bit too obsessed with our argument. Your post is in essence a giant summary of what happened. You state a scumread on me, which is improvement. However, I don't feel your scumhunting is original.
Your reasoning for FOS on me is problematic.
I believe I have already been called out for posting defensively. Also if "This all leads me to believe Z-BosoN is suffering from massive confirmation bias", as I stated, why wouldn't I defend myself extensively?
I have been called out by Z-Bo for inconsistency. Read above this for some reasoning on choosing one over the other.
And finally, you don't see my cases pointing out Z-Boson as scummy, yet you agree my cases say reasonable things?
"Here he addresses debears final post, a post which like I just pointed out says reasonable things." Just because you think someone's case about someone else being scum isn't correct, if the case is reasonable, that shouldn't make you think that the accuser is scum
That reasoning doesn't make sense, based on your own conclusions.
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Sorry thrawn....forgot it was deadline
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Day 2![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/o9Nh4.jpg)
Food was no longer going to be a problem. kushm4sta had been responsible for eating over half the daily supply, and his death provided everyone with enough whale meat to last a lifetime. Nobody quite understood his behavior there at the very end, and suffice to say that his absence allowed for a much quieter and constructive effort to be put into avenging prplhz.
The events of the first day had left everyone on board exhausted, and upon reaching their destination of King's Landing each member of the group set out to find food and shelter, or depending on their priorities, the nearest brothel. Rumors spread as they walked across the city.... and there were many among the city's powerful upper class that had a lifetime of experience in taking advantage of the naivety of foreigners. There were also thieves, abusive city guards, and the occasional bastard willing to capture and sell an unsuspecting victim into slavery as a whore. The group would have to be quite careful while in this treacherous city if they wanted to escape with their lives and continue on their journey…….
Everyone has lived through the night.
Flavor is just flavor. You have 48 hours left to vote! Deadline is at 20:00 GMT (+00:00). Votes that are not in the correct format will not be counted. Everyone is required to vote.
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@Corrosion
On October 01 2012 04:59 corrosion wrote:
I had a look at the cases Z-boson and Debears made against me. I thought both looked messy. I still do. Now Boson didn't jump on my post immediately, and others (Darth?)say his posting fits his town meta, so I'm going to assume that his motivation was scum hunting for now. Debears case is a huge wall of text without much actual content. I think it's suspicious. Is he trying to clutter up the thread and make chaos? I can see mafia motivation behind this.
Do you mind actually reading and refuting before you accuse my cases of no content?
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LOL. Seems scum really went for it. Nice medic save! ty <3 Going back to sleep (got up to see if I died)
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On October 01 2012 05:13 debears wrote:@Corrosion Show nested quote +On October 01 2012 04:59 corrosion wrote:
I had a look at the cases Z-boson and Debears made against me. I thought both looked messy. I still do. Now Boson didn't jump on my post immediately, and others (Darth?)say his posting fits his town meta, so I'm going to assume that his motivation was scum hunting for now. Debears case is a huge wall of text without much actual content. I think it's suspicious. Is he trying to clutter up the thread and make chaos? I can see mafia motivation behind this. Do you mind actually reading and refuting before you accuse my cases of no content?
It was a little hasty, because I wanted to post before the night ended. I'll elaborate:
There's some content in your post, but you've been making huge cases against several people without following up on them. As far as I can see, all you have achieved is to clutter up the thread. The other person that I've seen that clutters up the thread is Alsn. I've not read his last post yet, because it's tiring to read his posts. I've not read your case on him either. Right now I don't see any town motivation for your behavior.
##FoS Debears
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Thoughts on night actions:
On October 01 2012 05:14 DarthPunk wrote:
LOL. Seems scum really went for it. Nice medic save!
I'm guessing scum targeted Darth, and the medic saved him. He was the obvious candidate for NK, but the mafia tried to kill him anyway despite there being a high chance that a medic would be on him. This means that scum is desperate to get Darth out of the game. Why? Not only was he correct about Kush, but he gave his 3 top scum reads during the night in this order:
Debears
Djodref
Alsn
From my perspective: since scum targeted Darth, one of his three reads has a high likelihood of being correct. If he was headed in the wrong direction with these reads, scum would have taken out someone else and let him lead us astray. Attempting to NK Darth was a huge risk, but I believe it's one scum had to take because he was so on track, and having him alive would spell their doom in the end.
What does everyone else think?
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@Corrosion
On October 01 2012 05:37 corrosion wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2012 05:13 debears wrote:@Corrosion On October 01 2012 04:59 corrosion wrote:
I had a look at the cases Z-boson and Debears made against me. I thought both looked messy. I still do. Now Boson didn't jump on my post immediately, and others (Darth?)say his posting fits his town meta, so I'm going to assume that his motivation was scum hunting for now. Debears case is a huge wall of text without much actual content. I think it's suspicious. Is he trying to clutter up the thread and make chaos? I can see mafia motivation behind this. Do you mind actually reading and refuting before you accuse my cases of no content? It was a little hasty, because I wanted to post before the night ended. I'll elaborate: There's some content in your post, but you've been making huge cases against several people without following up on them. As far as I can see, all you have achieved is to clutter up the thread. The other person that I've seen that clutters up the thread is Alsn. I've not read his last post yet, because it's tiring to read his posts. I've not read your case on him either. Right now I don't see any town motivation for your behavior.##FoS Debears
So you're saying your going to jump to conclusions before reading?
Also, how is there not town motivation in making thorough cases on scum reads, especially in single posts? If you don't care to read what other people have to say, then you have a choice to not read it. It's all in one post. You can easily tell when it begins and ends and find the next post. However, if you were town, you would most likely want to read thorough cases, since they take a lot of work on the postee's side and indicate that they actually care about the game.
I most definitely followed up on Boson, since our arguments have stopped on the basis of repetitiveness. You haven't refuted my case against you. Instead, you FOS me. How can I follow it up when you don't make a defense of yourself? And Alsn hasn't looked over my case either yet or posted since then. How can I follow that case up?
Nice FOS. Nice reasoning behind it.
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On October 01 2012 05:56 Omniscient4983 wrote:Thoughts on night actions:Show nested quote +On October 01 2012 05:14 DarthPunk wrote:
LOL. Seems scum really went for it. Nice medic save! I'm guessing scum targeted Darth, and the medic saved him. He was the obvious candidate for NK, but the mafia tried to kill him anyway despite there being a high chance that a medic would be on him. This means that scum is desperate to get Darth out of the game. Why? Not only was he correct about Kush, but he gave his 3 top scum reads during the night in this order:
Debears
Djodref
AlsnFrom my perspective: since scum targeted Darth, one of his three reads has a high likelihood of being correct. If he was headed in the wrong direction with these reads, scum would have taken out someone else and let him lead us astray. Attempting to NK Darth was a huge risk, but I believe it's one scum had to take because he was so on track, and having him alive would spell their doom in the end. What does everyone else think?
Omni, you seem very sure of your prediction, and actually very detailed. Maybe a mafia trying to cover up after a bad night? At first you say you are guessing, but by your second paragraph you seem pretty sure of yourself.
I'm pointing this out because there are many more possibilities as to what happened, and I think speculating on this a waste of time. Also this could be a way of sidetracking the discussion.
As for what else could have happened -
1) Scum could have hit someone (DarthPunk or otherwise) and they were saved/jailed
2) A JK jailed the scum who took the shot.
3) Whoever got shot was a veteran
4) Scum didn't send in night actions (Not likely)
That's why I think your "thoughts" are more mafia motivated.
##FOS Omniscient4983
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Before I go to bed, debears, the thing with your "cases" against Z-BosoN are that all the things you say that sound reasonable are your refutations of Z-BosoN's points, which I now believe were made fuelled by emotion and bias. I no longer agree with your assessment that his reasons for pressuring you seem scummy, and thus while I definitely think you are right for defending yourself, I am merely pointing out that I have no way of assessing you if that's the only thing you will be doing. From your last few posts however, that's not what you are doing, so it's definitely a step in the right direction.
I don't have time to go over your case against me tonight but I'm not particularly worried. Is there any part of it in particular that you'd like an answer on? If so I'll address that tomorrow, otherwise I'll be spending most of my day trying to figure out the lurkier players, especially now that at least corrosion, djodref and omniscient are actually posting(yay!).
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On October 01 2012 07:47 RemedySC wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2012 05:56 Omniscient4983 wrote:Thoughts on night actions:On October 01 2012 05:14 DarthPunk wrote:
LOL. Seems scum really went for it. Nice medic save! I'm guessing scum targeted Darth, and the medic saved him. He was the obvious candidate for NK, but the mafia tried to kill him anyway despite there being a high chance that a medic would be on him. This means that scum is desperate to get Darth out of the game. Why? Not only was he correct about Kush, but he gave his 3 top scum reads during the night in this order:
Debears
Djodref
AlsnFrom my perspective: since scum targeted Darth, one of his three reads has a high likelihood of being correct. If he was headed in the wrong direction with these reads, scum would have taken out someone else and let him lead us astray. Attempting to NK Darth was a huge risk, but I believe it's one scum had to take because he was so on track, and having him alive would spell their doom in the end. What does everyone else think? Omni, you seem very sure of your prediction, and actually very detailed. Maybe a mafia trying to cover up after a bad night? At first you say you are guessing, but by your second paragraph you seem pretty sure of yourself. I'm pointing this out because there are many more possibilities as to what happened, and I think speculating on this a waste of time. Also this could be a way of sidetracking the discussion. As for what else could have happened - 1) Scum could have hit someone (DarthPunk or otherwise) and they were saved/jailed 2) A JK jailed the scum who took the shot. 3) Whoever got shot was a veteran 4) Scum didn't send in night actions (Not likely) That's why I think your "thoughts" are more mafia motivated. ##FOS Omniscient4983
If you're saved by a medic, don't you get a PM that states this? The reason I quoted Darth was because he stated that a medic saved him. Was this an assumption on his part? I took it as truth.
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Remedy
It's good to get something from you ! Welcome back to town
@debears
Thanks for finally answering my questions about the way kush treated you in his post. You seemed very reluctant to do it.
On October 01 2012 03:04 debears wrote:@Djo Show nested quote +On October 01 2012 02:09 Djodref wrote:
@debears
Well I would disagree about sheeping. Nobody so far has pointed out the defense you got from kush and the posts where he implies that you are his scumbuddy.
So why do you think kush was defending you ?
@everyone
Before going to bed, I would like to state that my guess for the scumteam is now debears/alsn. I think Z-BosoN has the right of it. I'm asking for a vig shot on debears !
Also Remedy is too much of a lurker. I don't think we are going to encounter lylo or mylo situations in this game but I hope that we can get something of him before this...
You have been sheeping. Look at SDM's case on you Show nested quote +On September 30 2012 22:03 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:And to clarify a couple of things about my case on Djo now that I'm up to date on the thread: 1. Latching on to others reads: As newbie scum it's really hard to make original cases. I had first hand experience Cubu and Imcasey in XXVI. The only case Imcasey could make was against our scum buddy Xatalos (that's quite easy because he knew he was scum). We had a similar situation with Debears in XXVII, at least in the beginning where the only case he could make was a defense of Thrawn, which is easy to do because he knew knew he was town (well, he flipped SK, but Debears couldn't know). 2. How can anyone buy into Kush's defense that easily? A newbie town is usually very suspcicious and it was a really silly defense, at the very best null. Using "player" and "people" sounds awkward? How isn't that an obvious lie? + Show Spoiler +On September 28 2012 20:12 kushm4sta wrote:
2. My supposed scumslip: huh? What else should I have called you? Player? Person? Maybe but to me those things sound awkward. Townie just seemed like the most non awkward word to use.
Innocent until proven guilty. That's how we do it in America bro.
As for the other lurkers, I don't find Remedy suspicious, rather the opposite although his post count is still low. Nothing really stuck out to me the same way Djo did when reading Omn's and Corrosion's filter. Also, the reason why no one is addressing kush's "scum for life" and "I saved you" posts to me is because the argument is pure WIFOM. Kush was scum. For that reason, we have to look at scum motivations 1) He was giving away his partner and throwing the game away. I believe he didn't give up on the game since he was mafia. Otherwise, he would most likely be punished for his actions in the game. Also, he is experienced. He isn't a dumb noob that would give up. He was willing to take the sack as scum last game when people started reading him as scum (although it never came to that). 2) He was attempting to set up someone who had "soft defended" him so that it would lead to a mislynch the next day.This point can be easily turned into WIFOM. Why would you believe the words of a confirmed scum? The purpose of mafia is to disrupt the the town and turn townies against each other. Number two fulfills that purpose.
I agree that kush defending you can be turn into a WIFOM shitfest. But what I get from kush's meta is that he let his emotions speak anyway, regardless if he is town or mafia. I think that's the reason why DarthPunk nailed him so easily.
I've been looking at kush's behavior through the thread and I found that it changes after Z-BosoN's case on you.
Please look carefully at the time stamps
+ Show Spoiler +On September 29 2012 05:29 Z-BosoN wrote:This is the time when Z-BosoN strongly attacks debears and vote for him in the thread. All the following posts are from kush's filter. I think he was desparate to see the game lost for mafia so fast and started to flame and troll. On September 29 2012 05:46 kushm4sta wrote:
Hi z bozon.
Inconsistencies do not make someone scum.
Also it's quite funny how you are so certain this early in the game.
To summarize this awesome post: your case is not strong. you are overconfident in your scumread.
Very first reaction to Z-BosoN's vote on debears On September 29 2012 05:52 kushm4sta wrote:
hi stutters .
its not that I don't give a fuck about this game. its that I don't give a fuck about not making "scumslips".
what questions have I dodged? To need to ask me them with a.question mark apart from the rest of your text.
The only question I see are what are other examples of savvy. I can't find them on my.phone. He fought with Alsn (allison?) though. Maybe you can look into that
racquetball is lame.
also you are.not excused cursing.
Flaming stutters On September 29 2012 05:59 kushm4sta wrote:
My.top scumread after darthpenguin: haven't given it.much thought. maybe djosef because he is playing the noobs.card pretty hard.
and djo guy,.if you want people.to say your name right don't make it random letters please Attacking me because my name is weird ! (This one is a joke by the way) On September 29 2012 06:22 kushm4sta wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2012 06:17 Z-BosoN wrote:On September 29 2012 05:59 kushm4sta wrote:
My.top scumread after darthpenguin: haven't given it.much thought. maybe djosef because he is playing the noobs.card pretty hard.
and djo guy,.if you want people.to say your name right don't make it random letters please Then give it more thought. kush seems scummiest honestly ##vote kush The ice on the cake And one hour later On September 29 2012 07:44 kushm4sta wrote:
debears I saved you bro...scumteam 4 lyfe He think he was still heated at that time. Also I think he got blamed for it because there is an apology post from him roughly one hour later again. On September 29 2012 08:58 kushm4sta wrote:
i apologize btw
Honestly I would feel better if it was a WIFOM trap but I don't think so. Kush directly discredited Z-BosoN when he voted for you and at a time when he wasn't totally derailing. I'm pretty sure that's what made him go ape shit.
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EPT
