EPTOr am I too late? :p
Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Or am I too late? :p | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Do you mind having Europeans playing this game btw? I might miss a lot of EODs, but will of course always make sure to get my vote in like a good villager... or mobster. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
| ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Man, I'm gonna get myself killed  | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 00:48 thrawn2112 wrote: the old ways of family and respect are no more, haven't you seen the sopranos? Lol no, I actually haven't. I'll make a terrible mobster. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 01:22 KillingTime wrote: SonicDeath did you ever play WH40K? your name reminds me of that dodgy chaos faction who used to kill with music :D Haha no, never did. Took my name from this: | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
1. Will we know which roles are in play? 2. Edit: dumb question 3. I assume the police is like a standard seer role and he's supposed to give hints along the way to be used at his death. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 07:37 BioSC wrote: 1. Players will know what roles are POSSIBLY in the game, not the exact number of roles. We like to be mysterious. 2. There are no dumb questions... Only dumb answers. 3. If there is a cop in this setup, each night he chooses one person to inspect, with the result being either Town or Mafia. There are things that can interfere with the results of your inspection, such as Mafia Godfathers (scum that checks as town), Millers (Town that checks as Mafia), and Mafia Framers (causes results to be opposite for one person), so you must use the results of your investigation with the general play of the person in question to get a read. If the cop dies without sharing his results, they are lost. Is there a maximum of one of each role listed except for the vanilla villager? This is going to be a complete mindfuck  | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 10:03 kushm4sta wrote: Why did you make a million complicated roles in a newbie game? Will we know WHICH of the roles are in play or could it be any number of any of those roles? I have to agree. I'm not just a little concerned that, in particular, the Miller, Framer and Godfather roles will turn this into a crapshot. Newbie games tend to favor the scum because they're the ones benefiting from confusion. Those roles add even more confusion because they remove information. And of course not knowing the distribution of roles also removes information and creates confusion. Anyway, that's just my 2c. I'm willing to give it a shot. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 13:03 drazak wrote: That's what it looked like to me, never played with roleblocker or miller/godfather type stuff but seems simple as fuck to me. Understanding the roles is obviously super simple, trying to processing the information in the game will be a complete mindfuck. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 16:28 kushm4sta wrote: There are ELEVEN roles. IRL mafia games I played there are only 3 roles. Also 3 of the roles make cops totally unreliable... Cop is basically a useless role. For all the cop knows, all 3 mafias could be godfathers, and all the townies could be millers. He doesn't know what roles are in play or how many, therefore any information he gets is totally unreliable. Yeah, if there's one of each of those roles in play, even if the police spots a mobster there's only a 50% chance he's actually a mobster. Of course that's an improvement from 25% at the start of the game but it makes the police worth a whole lot less. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 16:59 drazak wrote: er, as far as I know there can only be one each of each unique role, so only 2 possible wrong cop checks. In addition, likely the mods won't screw us too bad, and will probably have a decent amount of roles, not all 11. You didn't read about the framer, did you? Edit: look at this, we're already confused | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 17:14 thrawn2112 wrote: well.... it's supposed to be really difficult. and like I said, scumhunting in the thread is more useful than a single cop's night checks I thought it was supposed to be 50/50 between town and maffia. Single seers peeks have been invaluable in the games I've watched (not on TL). Of course scumhunting in the thread is completely necessary in any case. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 18:31 Kreb wrote: I like the roles. To me they add depth to the game. If there only was a cop and no miller/godfather, it just seems like he randomly could find a scum on the first or second night and that would give a huge advantage to the town. Later in the game he will undoubtedly have reads on 2-3 people and it seems extremely powerful. He might be able to finish the game by himself when theres 6-7 people left and maybe he has reads on 2-3 of them. At the right time, he roleclaim and reveals all his reads. He might even sacrifice himself to prove his reads are right and still win. To me that sounds rather boring. Winning as town should be done through successful day discussions, not through a cop randomly hitting perfect reads and then just finishing it by himself. The cool thing about having a police with 100% accuracy is that it puts pressure on the maffia. While the town needs to figure out who's scum/townie, the mobsters need to figure out who's the police. I don't think playing police is as easy as you make it out to be. The police can get night killed, which means he needs to leave hints. If they're too vague the town won't be able to spot them. Many maffia games have been lost because the police doesn't manage to get his peaks across. At the same time, if they're too obvious, the mobsters will be able to spot him and kill him off. The town needs to combat this with leaving fake hints as police cover, which in turn will provide info to the town if a fake police is getting lynched. With the current setup I doubt that police covering is a good strategy, at least it's way less important, which removes a cool part of the game. The newbie town is at a disadvantage at the start of the game because the lack of experience will create confusion. The added complexity of the setup removes most reasonably easy ways to clear townies and spot mobsters, which puts them at an even greater disadvantage. If you look in the maffia game library, you can see that the results are 15 - 4. Anyway, this is meant as feedback, not criticism. I'm obviously fine playing with this setup, that's what I signed up for. If a more experience player can comment on my thoughts I would appreciate it though. Perhaps this setup is awesome for reasons I haven't realized. My guess is that in a newbie game, the town is at least at a 75/25 disadvantage from the start. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
| ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: Not exactly a host / co-host but Kita said he's fine with me coaching so just to stick out a little: sup dudes. PM me with anything you want. So far there's no plan in wether I coach town, mafia or both at the same time but I'd assume I'm coaching both right now and yeah don't worry, can deal with that. So if you've got a question just shoot me a pm. I'm obviously not going to answer questions like "who do you think is mafia?" but anything else is fine I guess. Can we start asking question before the game starts? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Are mobsters allowed to communicate privately 24/7? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 21:16 Kreb wrote: Link to the mafia game library? Personally I looked at the ongoing mafia games thread and looked at ending posts. XX - Town win XXI - Mafia win XXII - Town win XXIII - Town win XXIV - Didnt find XXV - Town win 15-4 for mafia....? Edit (yes I know I cant do it when game starts =) ): Found XXIV thread. Town win. So we have 5-1 to town last 6 newbie mafias. I'd definitely not want a 100% cop then... This is where I was looking: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=274334#6 | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 02 2012 02:52 Blazinghand wrote: In the past, newbie games were typically won by scum. However, in the past 4-5 months or so, newbie games are typically won by town. The chief factor in deciding who wins a newbie game is which side has the better players. Who plays better wins, regardless of complexity. Don't even worry about the setup. In all likelihood in a game of this size you'll have like 2-3 blue roles (probably one roleblocking/protecting role, one shooting/information role, and a third role that could be either), and mafia will have 1-2 PRs, including a roleblocker or framer, or maybe a roleblocker and a GF. In fact, the biggest downfall of newbie towns is spending time speculating on the setup rather than scumhunting. Speculating on the setup in normal, non-themed games is like universally a hugeeeee waste of time. Summary: step 1) scum hunt step 2) win step not a step) speculate endlessly on setup When you say "spending time speculating about the setup", do you mean speculating about which roles are actually in play? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 01 2012 23:18 kitaman27 wrote: Taking a look at the types of setups used in past newbie games might help address your concerns. Generally we select setups that are balanced as a normal game, without taking into account that newer players are playing. As this is generally a learning experience, I think a skewed setup would cause people to make incorrect assumptions once they move on to the non-newbie games. The results may have started 15-4, but town has won the majority of the recent games, so I'm not sure the sample size is large enough to call it a 75/25 disadvantage. Adding more than 2-3 roles may add complexity to the setup, but I don't think it impacts balance as much. Compared to a cop only setup, the possibility of medic role forces the mafia to decide between hitting the strongest player in the thread or hitting a player that is less likely to be saved. Framers and millers are present in the role list because we never want a sitatuion where a town can win simply by following the blue's night actions. Alright, makes sense. Thinking a little bit about this setup I think it has the potential of being a great game. Let's get this rolling! | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion. We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too. And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole. Goodnight and see ya tomorrow. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch. On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote: There are a couple of posts that caught my attention. This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting". Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going. On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote: The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why? Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing. As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him. When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Townie: thrawn kush Scum: KillingTime Kreb | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 02 2012 22:00 Xatalos wrote: It's good to see some content from you (I agree with your point about thrawn2112), but the bolded part here is just... weak. Okay, Kreb and KillingTime have done basically nothing so far. But the same applies to Cubu, WeeTee and drazak. Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement. (As a sidenote, the above mentioned lurkers + Kville should really start posting some more, or it's going to be much more difficult to identify the Mafia lurkers.) I agree it's weak, that's why I said: "I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point". I think the reasoning behind it is solid, but this early information is obviously limited. If nothing else, putting a little bit of heat on them might induce them to contribute more. The reason I didn't include Cubu and drazak is because both their two first post are the kind of flimsy first couple of post I expect from comfortable townies (particularly Cubu's). TeeWee just entered the thread with the mother of all fluffy posts, so he'll be on the list as well. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 02 2012 23:09 KillingTime wrote: When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them. Here are my current reads so far. I would consider them weak ( esp as we have players who have hardly/not posted yet), but if they are not addressed in later play then I will be concerned - : Scummy: SonicDeathMonkey: I appreciate your efforts to keep the thread ordered and moving along. But, that is a nice null read at best. Your posting reads too much like scum trying to push others along without much substantive play in the hope that it will create a nice wagon to jump on or an outspoken townie you can target. You must stop trying to play threadcop and post some original reads with better reasoning. JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread. WeeTee - I agree with thrawn that only a fluffy first post, is now hard to justify now that there has been some discussion. Needs to follow up with a better second post. Weetee can stand in for anyone else who has not posted as well, at this point we have enough of a thread that just a fluff post is not a good entrance. Towny: thrawn Xatalos Both have posted good content, logically reasoned. Unsure: Kushm4sta’s posting so far confuses me. I need to think about them more/see what else he posts before I develop any kind of read. Fluff: - I have never watched the TV show the flavour for this game is based on - so please don’t make any jokes and expect me to understand them. As far as I can tell you've just latched on to my reads and reasonings for thrawn and WeeTee, I don't see why you'd accuse me of not having original reads. Kush is acting too spazzy not to be considered townie. Throwing in a random vote early with really baseless accusations is not what scum will do. He's also in my townie list. When it comes to your reads on Xatalos I tend to agree, he goes in the same category as thrawn. You yourself provided a good follow up to your first post, I have no real reason to suspect you. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 02 2012 23:59 Kreb wrote: 3) kushm4sta Most information about so far. Two options: A) Senseless accusations based on one post (my post) which agrees on the same thing everyone else already agreed on (I just agree like all others did, I couldnt imagine it would cause this to occur :p). Could mean hes "over-scumhunting" due to inexperience (if you believe in something you, unconsciously, look for confirmations to said belief and find "proofs" for it where there is none). Funnily enough, if A is the case, thats a slight/medium townread. It seems quite unlikely a mafia would come barking in like that with senseless accusations. B) Is kinda playing with the rest of us trying to provoke discussions/force reactions by purposedly posting senseless accusations. Actually, I kinda like that. It creates discussion and forces opinions, which later can be checked back when we know more about who is/was mafia/town. Actually, I would argue provoking by random accusations is something a good player should probably have in his repertoire. And conversely, if B is true, the town read is gone and he could either be a townie looking for clues or a rather hardcore metaing mafia. Either way B likely means hes more of an asset as town and a more dangerous opponent as mafial. --- Looking through his posting in previous Newbie mafia, I'd say it supports A over B. Town read remains. Since I haven't been active in the maffia thread before I have no pre-game reads on people, but I definitely read kush's as an inexperienced townie. - An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon. - An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations. Assuming players are capable of high level meta in newbie games will end up with disaster almost always. If kush actually was experienced his action would've been weird, as is I view them as clear cut townie. This is a clear cut situation where occam's razor is our friend. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority. 3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention. So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0. If that was the case, then Kville, TeeWee, dazark and you would be prime candidates. You're the ones flying under the radar atm. The observations you make in this post are both obvious and have been covered earlier in the thread. It isn't very convincing and it makes you suspicious. I'm sorry if it's just due to inexperience, but if you want to contribute you need up your level of analysis. To update my list: Townie: kush xatalos thrawn Scum: teewee cuba Killer and Kreb dropped from suspect list due to solid contributions. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 03 2012 00:44 Kreb wrote: Question to Sonic: Upon Xatalos calling you out a bit for not contributing, you reply with this: (Personal opinion: I agree with you and wouldnt hold that against you, I think Xatalos was "over-scumhunting".) Then next post, you list me and KillingTime as scum for that very reason. Becaue we didnt contribute with our first two posts (which I agree we didnt). But the obvious question then: Why would you list two people as possible scum for the very same reason you used yourself to explain why your own posts werent full of contribution? The reason was not so much the level of contribution (although that's a factor), but the fact that you just made one post and disappeared. Ime it's common for scum to make a post to make their presence known and then stay out of the thread expecting townies to start flinging poo at eachother (and it tends to work). Like I said, at that stage they were very loosely based accusation but if nothing else it might induce those people to start posting. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 03 2012 02:19 Stutters695 wrote: Regarding lists: This might be just me, but I don't want lists posted throughout the game. It's an easy wall for scum to hide behind without explaining why they think what they do and without forcing them to ever commit. Will have individual questions for people in a bit. On September 03 2012 09:05 WeeTee wrote: sonic + Show Spoiler + On September 02 2012 21:14 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above): Townie: thrawn kush Scum: KillingTime Kreb You are the one with the lists that I refer to, still this is a null read because list are not a bad idea. So what's the concensus on list-making? I was the one promoting lists in the first place, I thought it was a good idea. Stutter's point a valid but I feel like it's just as easy, if not easier, to hide behind a wall-of-text. Some wall-of-text posters (I'm looking at you Strangelove), seems post reads even on players he has no reads on. Not necessarily scummy, but it doesn't help us. If you have reads you think are good there's no reason to drown them out by filling your post out with "non-reads". I'll have to admit the list idea didn't pan out the way I had hoped though. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Kville Essentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now. Cubu: The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest): + Show Spoiler + On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote: But how do you lynch that which you cannot see? On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote: And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk. On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority. 3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention. So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0. On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me. drazark: Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly. Stutters: Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate. WeeTee: Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later. I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 03 2012 15:24 JacobStrangelove wrote: Hold on a second first I get accused of being wishy washy then when I change (as the game develops and more information comes out) I get accused of making lists then when I get told that is easy to do I change and I get accused of making walls of text? If I wasn't to write anything I would be accused of lurking... Everyone has a style they can hide behind, why not both. Have lists have walls of texts. (btw this is nowhere near the kind of walls of text I would normaly produce) I do like a little flavour in my posts... Also I did mention non reads incase people asked me about "what do you think of x person" This shouldn't be a reason for an accusation or suspicion. (see second last paragraph) It seems like I am getting set up for a day two or three lynch. My reasoning behind this is I seem to being baselessly accused in a by the by manner so when they get the opportunity people will remember me as someone suspicious. Also to Kush yeah Sonic I and Killing are actually fairly close in play style, this is probably why we don't trust each other at all. That said going out to uni will be back in several hours. I still think you're wishy washy. Like I said, I don't think your posts are totally lacking content, I just think you're mixing in too much crap to make them easy to follow. I think it's your way of writing it's your way of writing. If someone specifically ask you for a read on someone (which isn't a very good question to begin with), go ahead and answer. Otherwise just focus on your valuable reads and don't drown them out. I totally agree we have a similar playstyle. We're both starting from scratch and adjust probabilities accordingly (as a semi-pro poker player that approach is what comes natural to me). That's why I've been less suspect of you than a lot of others (you haven't seen me include you on any lists). The fact that KillingTime's post hasn't stood out to me lately makes me belive he might be in that same category. I think Kush is a bit more on the spazzy side. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 03 2012 17:11 Stutters695 wrote: [green]Are we allowed to reference people's activity on TL outside of the game (It wasn't allowed in XXIV is why I'm asking.)? @Sonic Death Monkey It wasn't an alibi. It was a direct example of a low post count not being immediately a scumtell. I should have been more clear about it though. A low post count doesn't indicate scum or innocence. It should warrant heavy scrutiny to determine the motives behind their posts. Especially if it comes down to a debate between lurkers. Your post is exactly what I'm taking about with lists. If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure but W,X,Y,Z are scummy for not posting very often and I'd be covered through a D1 lynch without having to explain anything. That's both fair points. I don't see lists as inherently bad though, we just need to evaluate the reasoning posters give for their lists (lists or no lists seems like a non-issue as long as we do our job). I do agree low post counts don't need to be incriminating, but like I said I found your reference to another thread as kind of weak argumentation. This post helps your first post to make more sense though, so my scum alert is waning. It'd still need nice if you were able to contribute more or else you come off as neutral at best, ducking at worst. I'm at uni atm and won't be able to contribute much for another 7-8 hours. I'm liking the development with lurkers starting to contribute more, should give us better information for the lynch. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 03 2012 18:47 kushm4sta wrote: So it seems like the consensus is to lynch either cubu or kville. Anyone not feel this way? Even if they aren't mafia they are solid policy lynches. Now the question is which one. Kville is the bigger lurker, but I think there is a higher possibility for cubu to actually be mafia. Honestly cubu probably isn't mafia either, just because I think mafia would put more effort into their posts. Lynching one of these guys is better than lynching someone who is active though. So my vote is still on cubu. No need to limit ourselves this early. Like I said before there are other decent option and we don't want too many to feel safe this early. If scum feel safe they're more likely to stay away from the thread and we gain no info. On September 03 2012 19:01 kushm4sta wrote: In response to all this conversation about lists: I prefer more directed single accusations than lightly accusing a bunch of people at once. If a bunch of people really put the heat on someone and threaten him with a lynch, then shit starts to come out. But if you accuse someone with a few sentences, along with the 5 other people you are accusing, then the accused doesn't even really have to respond. Casting your net to wide is the metaphor. Yes list making gives you a lot of insight into what people are thinking, but this is a double edged sword. If I have a slight suspicion of someone, I don't necessarily want to let them know that because that will only make them more careful. Now I feel kind of sorry I made this a big deal, I didn't mean to. Lists or no lists doesn't matter much as long as we do our job and evaluate the reasoning posters provide. Right now I feel like the "list discussion" is just clogging up the thread and prevents more productive discussion so this will be my last comment on the list topic. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 03 2012 19:20 thrawn2112 wrote: Yeah I don't like the lists. They cause town's focus to be too widespread which limits progress. If you have a read on somebody, and it's a read worth sharing, then it should take more than a couple sentences to justify. Making lists isn't scumhunting, it's fluff. You should be spending your time making accusations and questioning people instead of spitting out the status quo on each player. Gonna get my vote in next post Gah, I can't resist... this will be the last one! I agree making a list including everyone in the game usually ends with fluff and they are pretty worthless. Lists should only include a few of the most solid and/or relevant reads + reasonings. Now, I'm done. Everyone, lists or no lists, provide your reads clearly and concisely. Don't ramble about players you don't have any reads on. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 04 2012 00:54 thrawn2112 wrote: I have similar feelings about a kville lynch: Also according to the replacement thread the host has asked for a replacement for this game, so I think that kville is just a town player who doesn't care and wants out. I'm going to unvote drazak because I'd rather lynch someone more lurky, and because he's done a better job at contributing than he did at the start of the game. Here are my thoughts on the proposed lurker lynch candidates: Cubu: Has expressed suspicion of drazak, and said he wants to lynch kville. I consider his vote for kville a bad idea, but he has at least given scumreads. Earlier someone said that Cubu's posting looks like that of a spazzy townie, which I agree with. WeeTee/Stutters: I'm putting these two together because they are the lurkiest except for kville. WeeTee hasn't offered any scum reads at all, nor has he questioned anyone on anything. Stutters' only contribution towards scumhunting was his comment on kville's strange behavior. Stutters's scumhunting efforts are close enough to none I might as well call it none. Between the two of them I think WeeTee has provided greater insight into his thoughts. Stutters hasn't even obliged us with his town reads, all he's done is talk about policy and his thoughts on lists. I want to lynch WeeTee or Stutters. Other than kville (who I'm not going to vote for because of the earlier reasons I gave) they are the lurkiest players. I can see WeeTee being town because his town meta during XXV was exactly how he's playing now, so I'm going to vote for stutters because of my WeeTee meta read and because stutters has shared less thoughts/reads out of the two. Any reason you think that'd make him townie? At this point I think it's evident he's afk because town or maffia, he would've tried to defend himself by now. To me it pretty much makes him rand(), which still makes him a bad lynch because we want >rand() lynches and whether town or maffia lynching him gives us very little info. Not lynching him in hopes of him getting a sub seems like the obvious move. I'm going to have to have to reread the last couple of pages but as of right now, I like my Stutter vote better than the alternatives. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 04 2012 02:44 thrawn2112 wrote: Oh and I wouldn't say he's afk, he's been playing in another mafia game all this time. It could be some elaborate ruse as scum, but I think it's more likely he doesn't want to play in this game. I don't believe it's an elaborate ruse for one second. But if he wants out, it seems like he's screwing over his sub whether he's town or maffia. For now it's a non-issue though, at least as long as people can agree not to lynch him. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 04 2012 02:01 kushm4sta wrote: @thrawn Let me just say that was a very nice catch on kville getting replaced. Very sharp. We certainly shouldn't vote for him now. Drazak and Cuba should change their votes. I think the replacement issue makes him just a null read. So the drazak didn't work out for you? Now you aim your sights at Stutters. Stutters over Cuba makes ZERO sense to me. He is not the ideal townie, but if you compare his filter to Cuba's, the difference is night and day. As town Stutters appears to be much more helpful, writing in depth and coherently. You are right he has offered no scum read yet. However he still has 8 hours and as he explained he is not a very active poster. On the other hand look at cuba's "scum read." It's more like a defense: you can't lynch him for lurking because kville is lurking way harder. And then he also accuses drazak...hmm that's interesting..but I'll get to that next post. Anyway his scumread of drazak is based on calling him out for lurker policy fluff, which is the same reason I suspected cuba in the first place. So his "scrumread," which apparently proves his innocence in your mind, is hypocritical, unfocused, and lacking of content. When you first accused drazak right after I accused cuba, you said You weren't even mentioning stutters as a candidate back then, and nothing regarding him has changed. You said cuba was a good pick, so what happened?? Stutter's posts are still kind of pseudo-helpful. That's the kind of post I'd expect from scum, Cubu's ramblings are not. I feel like Stutter has had the chance to contribute with something better by now. I'm quoting my last post of reads for updates: On September 03 2012 15:34 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I think at this point we need to start some wagons, we need them to start with some time left for EOD to be able to get some reactions and information to work with. More than one, because have 2-3 wagons will give us better opportunities to analyze voting patterns later. I think the best strategy is to wagon suspect lurkers to force reactions/info and adjust accordingly. I'm sure there are at least one scum among the more active posters but we can deal with active posters later. My take on the lurkers (Kville, Cubu, drazark, stutters, weetee): Kville Essentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now. Confirmed. Cubu: The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest): + Show Spoiler + On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote: But how do you lynch that which you cannot see? On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote: And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk. On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority. 3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention. So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0. On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me. Clearly still building on that same image. drazark: Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly. Responded with a long list, whether townie or scum not that's unexpected. Has become way more active, which makes him an easy pick for surviving to d2. I'm neutral as far as townie/scum read goes. Stutters: Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate. Commented above. WeeTee: Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later. Made one post after I made my post. He's starting to come off as Cubu, whether town or maffia they come off as confused and are really bad at defending themselves. Our obvious problem is what to do with those players. Accept them as townies because they don't make much sense? Wait until tomorrow and hope they start making sense? For now it's an issue better dealt with tomorrow. WeeTee comes off as more suspect than Cubu though, because WeeTee being scum does not requier some elaborate level. I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth. So I would now rank them Stutters > WeeTee > Cubu > Drazark. Although Cubu vs Drazark can go either way. The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum. Over all putting the heat on lurkers has been kind of a disappointment. Tomorrow we really need to look more closely on active posters. I will be able to check back on this thread in a couple of hours again before going to bed. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 04 2012 03:30 kushm4sta wrote: You are wrong to think that scum behavior is always this balance of good and bad townie. Everyone plays mafia differently. And I think you are also wrong to assume that for Cubu to be scum, he would have to be doing some high level mindgames. He's just new and not a good player. If he is town like you say he is, then he is bad, bad town. Wouldn't it also make sense then that as mafia he would be just as bad? Bad townie acts differently to bad scum. I agree that an inexperienced scum who ends up in a sticky situation will react badly. However, inexperienced scum tends to be much more careful with what they say and thus are less likely to get into the sticky situation in the first place. On September 03 2012 00:25 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: - An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon. - An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations. (this post was written in regards to your weird voting in the beginning of the thread, but the same applies for Cubu's behaviour) | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Alright, a couple of thoughts. First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV). It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: You also say If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.) I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
| ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote: Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. EOD = End of day Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect. You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game? You're also still ignoring this: On September 04 2012 06:12 Kreb wrote: Stutters You started off by ignoring this: Then you follow it up by posting this: So, we got this part 2 coming anytime soon? Or are you, for the second time, saying you will do something and then just ignore it? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
I don't have more time right now though and will need to get back with more thoughts in the afternoon. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 04 2012 16:30 Kreb wrote: He did reply to my post Sonic. I really shouldn't be posting before my morning coffee, I missed that reply. On September 04 2012 21:44 thrawn2112 wrote: I'm not exactly sure what you want me to chime in on but I'll talk about scumhunting priorities that you and stutters seem to be arguing about. In XXIV, there was a massive shit-flinging fight between shady and I. There were people who thought shady was being completely illogical, and there were people who though I was being completely illogical. The vote was closely split between shady and I and shady ended up getting lynched. But the people who voted for either of us voted on the premise that illogical posting = scum. There weren't any good scum-motive explanations for either shady or my actions and the votes were completely based on "well this guy says dumb stuff." Then D2 I got lynched and flipped vigilante, and once again nobody was voting based off scum-motive suspicions. The case against me was that my vig claim was unbelievable, and there was an association case against me because another player and I had made extremely similar posts at the exact same time which made people think that we were in conversation with each other as scum. Meanwhile there was a player who had been saying extremely illogical stuff, but most people gave him a town read because they thought there'd be no way that a scum would be so illogical. His actual actions/votes were so extremely scummy throughout the whole game. However, people ignored that because they were spending too much time trying to make reads based on the quality of his posts, when instead they should have been looking at his motives behind the posts. The point is motives>quality of posts in terms of importance to making reads. That was the reason I favored lynching stutters over cubu. They both were heavy lurkers without much actual contribution in the few posts they had made. The people who voted for cubu did it because the quality (reasoning, writing style, and relevance to the thread) of stutter's posts was much higher than cubu's. So in their eyes, having low quality posts (see my earlier definition of quality) makes you look scummy. I didn't think that was a good assumption to make, and I preferred voting stutters because stutters had done less scumhunting than cubu. At the time of deciding between the two, the only scumhunting stutters had done was the very last paragraph of this post. Cubu of course hadn't done as much scumhunting as most poeple, but his contributions towards finding scum were more than what stutters gave. It was a vote based on motives instead of quality... somebody who doesn't scumhunt (ask questions, state what you find scummy, accuse people with FOS and such) is not a town player. I was mainly asking for your (or others') opinion on whether his posts made sense knowing the XXIV background, but thanks for describing the event in detail. Stutters, I think it's a fine to make the argument that low post counts doesn't necessarily equal scummy behaviour and that motives > quality. But trying to rationalize that low post counts doesn't equal scum while at the same time contributing nothing is shady. We don't want to justify lurking, we want people to look for motives while at the same time making good observations/reads/analyses (d1 you did neither). I got some thoughts on last yesterday's events, but I still got some catching up to do in this thread. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Kush is my most clear townie read. Starting a wagon on d1 is not scummy, rather the opposite. What makes him almost a dead sure townie though, is his way of aggressively pursuing the Cubu wagon even at a point where it was highly likely to succeed. At that point scum would've just sat back and relaxed. Stutter was my #1 suspect d1 (reasons given a million times already) and he has contributing with little to nothing for me to change my view of him being scummy. WeeTee was my #2 suspect at the end of d1 but is getting subbed. It's possible his terrible posts came as a result of a lack of time, I still have a scum lean on him and will keep a close eye on imcasey's posts. Kville snags the spazztard of the day award in the last few hours. Considering he's playing in other maffias games he shouldn't be a complete newbie and he should realize he really needs to get back into this thread and start answering questions and contributing. Since he's not a complete newbie I'm hesitant to apply my policy of giving spazzes the benefit of a doubt, he needs to start posting more and more qualitatively or else he's getting my vote (he's useless anyway). When looking at yesterday's voting pattern, there's really only one thing that pops up: At one point Cubu placed a vote on Kville to tie it up 2-2. At this point Jacob and Xatalos put down votes on Cubu. If Kville is maffia, it's possible Jacob or Xatalos wanted to push Cubu's wagon to save him. This gives some extra weight behind the case for lynching Kville, as it may give us information on Jacob and Xatalos. If Kville is maffia I highly doubt both Jacob and Xatalos are scum though, so the information we would gain is limited. The fact that we had so many wagons going came back to bite us in the ass. First, having our votes so spread, it gives maffia a better chance of affecting the outcome. Second, the Cubu wagon started rolling way too fast. He got far ahead and at that point voting pattern analysis is useless, because it's only in a close townie/scum wagon that the scum is put to the test (to save or not to save?). | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 05 2012 02:52 Kreb wrote: Fair enough. I agree it would be a pretty dirty move to ask for a modkill like that (as I indicated in my previous post). But in that case we might as well just auto vote him to get rid of him, regardless of alignment. We need to just chill for awhile. It's still just n1 and we got 48h of d2 before next lynch. If we decide to lynch him already it means scum can feel safe for the entire d2. We should keep our options open and consider other lynching candidates as well. He should definitely be on the list of highly suspected though. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 05 2012 04:43 thrawn2112 wrote: I propose a back up policy-lynch plan on kville D2. All the people that have spoken up about him recently (kreb kush myself and sonic) have all expressed sentiments of at least not wanting him in the game regardless of his alignment. His play is just too strange to make sense from a town perspective.... but if he somehow is town then he's being so purposefully anti-town that lynching him would be the best possible townie-lynch. If he continues on how he's been playing then I'm going to ignore him so I can focus on getting a solid scumread on someone else. If I'm unable to make a case I'm confident in and nobody else's cases look convincing, then I'm going to ask everyone who is in a similar situation to lynch kville. Is there anyone that thinks back-up plan lynching kville is a bad idea? I'd like to hear some possible town-motives for his posts or reasons to keep him around because I don't see any. He's definitely not everyone's strongest scumread, but it seems to be the consensus that his play is anti-town townie if not anti-town scum. It'll be similar to a D1 lurker lynch policy, in that we all will have an agreed upon alternative lynch plan if we fail to produce strong reads by the end of the day cycle. He is my strongest scumread because I see absolutely no town-motives behind his play, but I think we should pursue other cases for the time being because a read on kville is based off of so little information. (7 total posts) Say so if you agree or disagree, and then set the matter aside unless it needs to be brought up at the end of D2. I think this is the best strat. We keep pressure on scum and we keep pressure on Kville to change strat if he is townie. We don't really lose anything by keeping Kville around and there's a >0 chance he'll start making sense. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Collection of posts where you just latch onto others’ wagons/reads: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 11:48 JacobStrangelove wrote: Wait so both killling and Xatalos were going at weetee/imcasey? *cough* doesn't this sound right. Considering according to thrawn (confirmed town now) both had week reasoning for cubu and Xatalos was defending killing in a non committal way at one point(not much but...) Sonic case is so out of date though. Even I stopped harassing him as I ended up at least partially satisfied. I would look at the Xatalos/Killing filters if I were you. They both seem to be starting a bandwagon. Xatalos starts it and then killing jumps on. I agree policy lynch on kville/stutters might be a problem considering the place it would leave us in.(if they flip town) That said I want to know more about you guys (kville and stutters) go out there say stuff. You are likely to get lynched before these guys so try and help us out. Also you would think he would wait for imcasey to start posting. I could be wrong so anyone feel free to point out any illogic here. Bolded: If you were who? A townie? Do some work instead of trying to have others being the ones putting their life on the line. You really seem like a poster being on the outside looking in, you insinuate Xatalos and Killing are scummy and try to get others to make the work for you so that they can get into trouble if wrong. + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 22:42 JacobStrangelove wrote: Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey) So what do you think now? I have been ranting at you for a while (maybe misguided) but you could give me something to go on. You also mention that it is any particular reason for this? Just thought it was slightly strange that you would point out who started the wagon in particular. Also you could have a scum motivation for trying to stop people talking at night. Just saying. Also here You left them aside forever. The only other comment you seemed to make was You would think you could come up with something better than that? When people accuse me of things I list reasons why it's illogical and such. You seem to be hiding under short posts now. Latching onto my and thrawn’s Stutters read. + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 12:10 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying. Once again just latching onto someone else’s analysis, but then explain you won’t take a stance because “There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying”. Even when you post your reads it’s all very non-confrontational, except when it comes to Cubu (it’s also worth noting that your reasoning for voting Cubu is weak). You really tries to keep all your options open: + Show Spoiler + On September 03 2012 21:33 JacobStrangelove wrote: Yeah, I am back. Tired but back. I will likely vote before bed as I am unlikely to be awake. So lists or no lists xD (not going to start that again as sonic said not a big deal) At the moment all the focus is on Kville Drazak and Cubu. So a list of three is appropriate. Kville I find hard to believe would be mafia. Posting twice? Could be a great bluff strategy but honestly I think he got into the game and thought. Ahh who cares. That said he isn’t useful in the game unlike Drazak. Although apparently his previous activity was high in other mafias. I haven’t got time to check that and it was coming from Drazak but interesting to consider. Drazak: I maybe biased towards the one person who thinks I am town but he seems more like a mildly scared town (as opposed to a really scared mafia see Cubu) Most of it is vibe based however as he said if we lynch him we have less to go on than if we don’t. So leaving him in the game at least temporarily is more useful So I would vote (and probably will before bed unless a good argument comes up) Cubu first. Cubu: Need I say more? Could be a scared town but he reacted so horribly. Most likely an inexperienced mafia. Oh and about WeeTee. I would be hesitant to lynch him because his game activity last game was similar and he got lynched as town. So I will probably vote Cubu, Kville, Drazak. Unless one of the others or cubu comes in with a perfect argument I don’t see this changing much. I gave your non-confrontational style a pass early d1, but at this point there are no excuses and you laying this low definitely comes off as scummy to me. Regarding you Cubu vote, just throwing random ideas out there and sees what sticks: + Show Spoiler + On September 03 2012 22:53 JacobStrangelove wrote: Vote count is in the other thread I think. But Cubu or kville? Both of the at risk voted kville most likely as a "I want to survive" tactic. But also reasoning behind it. Also what about stutters? I forgot him, in what ever case the more information argument comes in. Stutters as provided something more than both. So more likely to have more to work with day two. I'll watch a movie and be back, need time to think about it. Your only post wrt Cubu with some kind of substance is this: + Show Spoiler + On September 03 2012 12:03 JacobStrangelove wrote: Lynching the lurkers who have posted completly nothing is 50-50 could be bored town could be terrified mafia or terrified town you never know. You however are lurking (only one post longer than one line and that post is just statistics) and if you read what I wrote. I explain why you are a better choice. (than kville who I assume you are reffering to{but also not pick a lurker to lynch!}) You are not being decisive (you say lynch the lurkers.) What lurkers? Do you not want to be connected to the lynch? Sounds like scum to me. You have plenty of time to prove me wrong though. While lynching active members is more 25% chance or whatever (not going to go into the maths) you aren't exactly what I would call active. So in lynching you we ARE lynching a lurker. But it’s still wishy-washy and poorly reasoned. I don’t even get bolded part. Would you please also explain your Killing/Xatalos connection theory more concisely? I don’t see how it’d make sense, it's just you latching onto thrawns analysis that both had poor reasonings for voting on Cubu (and you insinuating that both of them voting WeeTee somehow would make them a pair of scum?) | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Best wagons: Stutters Xatalos Jacob (Kville is a back-up) Town read: Still just Kush, but I need to catch up on the latest contributions to the thread. We need to put more focus into clearing townies, as it's a great help limiting scum possibilities (big newbie mistake is focusing too hard on just finding scum and I think that's what's going on in this thread atm). I don't find the case against kush to be strong. I will repeat my earlier arguments: + Show Spoiler + Starting a wagon d1: Usually gives you too much attention (this game is a case in point) Pursuing that townie Cubu: I think at a 4-2 score where no other wagons had any momentum, he still aggressively pursued Cubu. Going after thrawn: Makes no sense to attack the most trusted townie (those were the accusations right? I still need to go back and reread this part) All his actions will give him a ton of attention, that’s not very scummy at all. We've got a lot of work to do in this thread, I will be back later tonight. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
| ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote: I HAVE looked through those filters and because if it I want more people to do the same. It's obvious I am the big one going at killing at least so I am in a spot if he is lynched and flips town. Despite almost nobody thinking he is scum (after his list post day one people all thought he was town{not going to start the lists are easy to hide behind stuff again}) Also I don't think I am latching on to other peoples reads if I am going for killing and Xato. (xato maybe but you must realise almost everyone has been accused so almost everyone thinking the same could be a bandwagon move). The reason I am putting the pressure on Killing and Xato so much is so they explain what is going on. Assuming you are not mafia the likelyhood of one of them being one is high. So I agree we should put the heat on him that is what I have been trying to do. I haven’t commited to Xato as I am waiting for a response. Your and thrawns stutters read does make sense... motivation over activity. Whose analysis was I latching onto there? The only analysis part I latched onto was the first line. From kush going for Xatalos onwards that was all mine. (With exception to the wagon when tired up part) I am confirming parts of other people’s analysis that makes sense. Posts like yours are the reason I encouraged clear and concise posting in my first "fluffy" post of the thread. They frustrate me to no end. I already asked you to try to stop rambling but your posts just continue to be all over the place, which is just distracting. (yeah, someone rightly accused me of being "thread police" earlier, whatever, can we please try to make at least some sense when we're posting?) I went through your posting history on Killing and these are the most logical arguments you made (which speak volumes about the arguments I left out): + Show Spoiler + On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: Killing time: I do read you as scum you post twice one with a very safe set of people to accuse (apart from myself to this point) and you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason. Standard early d1 fluff/lurk accusation, nothing wrong with that really. On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: Sonic: I am also unsure about sonic due to the point you brought up regarding him being a fluffy poster as well. That said (I am doing this again I know...) what he said about it fitting everyone in the thread so far also is a sound argument. However my initial scum read was sonic. (due to fluffy posting) only question is why would a sonic Killing time team act this way? [...] Kreb: Maybe a scum read but not enough to put him in there. His “list” is basically just agreeing with everything except the one person that is controversial. Possible Kreb/Killing team? Now you introduce possible connection between me/killing and kreb/killing. For some reason you're out for Killing and you throw out random ideas to see what sticks. On September 04 2012 16:36 JacobStrangelove wrote: So who started the bandwagon? Who joined in?(in a strange manner) I am almost sure one of the three sonic, myself or killing is mafia. More killing because he promised a (probably longer post in the evening then just said goodnight.) Admittedly this is a really weak reason. [...] YES Exactly Kreb about the weak lynch *cough* Killing *cough* also good point about who was opposed. A new argument you even find weak yourself. In the second bolded part I don't know what you're talking about (reading the Kreb post referenced didn't help). On September 04 2012 22:42 JacobStrangelove wrote: Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey) So what do you think now? I have been ranting at you for a while (maybe misguided) but you could give me something to go on. You also mention that it is any particular reason for this? Just thought it was slightly strange that you would point out who started the wagon in particular. Also you could have a scum motivation for trying to stop people talking at night. Just saying. Also here You left them aside forever. The only other comment you seemed to make was You would think you could come up with something better than that? When people accuse me of things I list reasons why it's illogical and such. You seem to be hiding under short posts now. Lots of words, no accusations of substance and now you want logical explanations? On September 05 2012 11:48 JacobStrangelove wrote: Wait so both killling and Xatalos were going at weetee/imcasey? *cough* doesn't this sound right. Considering according to thrawn (confirmed town now) both had week reasoning for cubu and Xatalos was defending killing in a non committal way at one point(not much but...) Sonic case is so out of date though. Even I stopped harassing him as I ended up at least partially satisfied. I would look at the Xatalos/Killing filters if I were you. They both seem to be starting a bandwagon. Xatalos starts it and then killing jumps on. I agree policy lynch on kville/stutters might be a problem considering the place it would leave us in.(if they flip town) That said I want to know more about you guys (kville and stutters) go out there say stuff. You are likely to get lynched before these guys so try and help us out. Also you would think he would wait for imcasey to start posting. I could be wrong so anyone feel free to point out any illogic here. Here you introduce the Xatalos/Killing connection. As far as I understand, it would be based on the fact that: 1. Thrawn claimed they both had weak reasonings for voting Cubu. Killing didn't vote on Cubu until after the point it was sure he was getting lynched though. You yourself put in your vote at a more scummy timing after the wagon had already started (giving Cubu a 3-2 lead vs Kville). 2. They both were sceptical of WeeTee? At least half the players were sceptical about WeeTee and for good reasons (at least at that point in the game). You think they're scummy because they didn't have the same pre-game read as you? On September 05 2012 18:12 JacobStrangelove wrote: No you have that completly wrong, I was more thinking you would town lynch WeeTee and then bus or town lynch whoever town disliked most out of Stutters kville. I know I am pushing you but it's mainly so I have more information. You are the only one I can force to talk at the moment as kville and Stutters seem like hopless cases. Why wouldn't he just lynch Cubu? And how come you're so sure WeeTee is townie? Cliffnotes: Suspecting a Killing/Xatalos connection has no logical explanation. I will concede to the point that you're taking a risk with your Killing insinuations, I didn't realize you went after him this early. That’s the one read you’ve committed to since the start (aside from Cubu) but it makes no sense. If you actually went through his filter I find it weird those are your conclusions (explained above). I'm still wondering what motives you have. If you're scum you're playing good, because you give a serious fucking headache. I can't believe all the time I just wasted going throw your filter | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 05 2012 13:02 kushm4sta wrote: Thrawn was like town leader and now he is gone. We need to do is come up with a plan for day 2 so we can as a town stay focused. We do NOT want to all be accusing different people. That is what mafia wants. We do not want to be discussing things that do not contribute to the scum hunt. Anyone have an idea for a day 2 town plan to help us? In the next post I will discuss this recent drazak vote for me. I think it's a good idea to build a lot of cases today to get as much info as possible. We absolutely need to be more focused tomorrow and not all go vote on different people. Atm my top two lynching candidates are: Stutters Xatalos Jacob is just too damn confusing for me to want lynch right now, but among the more active posters he's my highest suspect. Imcasey has shown some good signs in his posting and I'm willing to give him a pass for now. Kville just made his first reasonable post, as ridiculous as it may seem it might be enough to get him through to d3. He still really needs to post more/better. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Kush: Xatalos, drazak, KillingTime Kreb: Xatalos, kville, Stutters I agree about Xatalos, so he seems set. I'll write a summary of what's suspicious about Xatalos, but my time during the day is limited so don't expect it until 8-10h before EOD (and that's when I'll put my vote in). About your differences: Unless someone comes up with good cases against drazak and KillingTime I don't see myself giving them my vote today. I've been going through KillingTime's filter and just don't find him very suspicious, neither do I find Jacob's case strong (as I've explained before). With regards to drazak I haven't gone through his filter lately but he just hasn't struck me as suspicious. I won't put time into researching him now because there are better candidates. My d1 suspicion of Stutters remain. He made a good post today, but we need more of that. It's just sooo easy to lurk and post one good post a day. In that post he implied he'd be more helpful today and that's really required. The same can be said about Kville. So basically I agree with Kreb and the bolded posters will get my vote tonight. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 06 2012 07:36 JacobStrangelove wrote: 1. If it’s a standard early lurk accusation then why mention it? Yes I did throw around connections and because of that I now know that both you and killing are far less likely to be scum. Remember there are town motivations for accusing people especially early day one when you don’t have much to go on. You can look at the reactions and see how people respond or ignore things. For example, Xatatos just re-entered the thread and didn’t mention a thing about the accusations against him. Whereas both you and killing have without giving me much to go on(in way of mafia reads). 2. I tend to scum hunt differently because if I can confirm enough people town logically the rest must be mafia. Then you can look at the people remaining and go from most suspicious to least. 3. Of course I find the argument weak there was almost no argument strong at all day one. Wouldn’t lynch cubu because cubu was an easy day two lynch. I have been taking a risk with killing insinuations however due to that and the responses I have gotten as I said in the last through posts he is getting more and more town like. Opposed to Xatatos. 1. I just wanted to include it so that my post would be a fair representation of your suspicion of KillingTime (the post might be helpful later). 2. Could you provide a post where you explain those town reads clearly? Your writing is really confusing so you need to straight that up. 3. Why were you attacking KillingTimes though? Please explain the reason you've been attacking him all game and what it was in his postings that made you think he looks more town now. Btw it's really easy to slip away from questions by not quoting the post you're replying to, so please reply to these questions. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
However, Kreb, I disagree with a couple of things. Your read on drazak being "sorry" is thoughtful and has merit, but it seems like you're putting too much weight into it. Also, I don't think drazak's case against Kush is very similar to Kush's early attack against you. Kush's early attack was kind of a spazz move at a time we had not much to go on, drazak's case just seems poorly reasoned at a time we got a lot of info to work with. This could both be done by a careless townie or a scum pushing an ulterior motive. I don't see what Kush's ulterior motive would've been. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 06 2012 13:31 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town. Sleeping strange hours and moving is townie? Drazak is pretty much a null read for me atm. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 06 2012 17:40 drazak wrote: I'm honestly a little surprised others aren't chiming in on this, you seem to be the only one kreb. I'll have some more suspiscions for you in the morning, gotta read filters/etc and I've only slept a little. I've been catching up on the rest of the thread. Will comment on your new posts when I get back (haven't had the chance to read them yet). | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
| ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 07 2012 02:38 Kreb wrote: Also, the vote on Kville is not a policy lynch anymore. As I've pointed out before, he has not even tried to defend himself. Theres absolutely no reason to not do that. Stutters replied when I went on him, Kush/Drazak are replying to each others attacks, Xatalos has replied too (albeit mostly excusing himself for his lack of time). Everyone who has been attacked HAS TRIED (some with better success, some with worse), except Kville. Yeah, that's a good observation. I still have no idea what to make of the motivations behind that though. Both townies and scums should be motivated to defend themselves. That's what Xatalos has going for him and why I lean towards a Kville vote atm. Xatalos seems interested in the game and at least it seems like he wants to contribute. And he did contribute quite a good amount at the start of the game, during the weekend. So keeping him for another day there's good chance we'll be seeing more posts over the weekend. On September 07 2012 02:47 kushm4sta wrote: Kville is a lurker and he comes in and comments when he feels like it. Honestly I doubt has or will read the thread. Still a null read because that's just how this dbag acts. So I think it is a policy lynch. But having said that I would vote for him just because it doesn't seem like we are able to reach a good consensus. I would rather lynch XATALOS over him, however. Xatalos flipping green tells us more than kville flipping green IMO. Xatalos flipping red tells us WAY more than kville flipping red. I agree lynching Kville gives us very limited information, we just get rid of player who doesn't contribute. The question is what we get out of lynching Xatalos. One thing seems pretty sure, if Xatalos flips red, it clears Kville. Otherwise, why would Xatalos promote vig killing Kville? However, if Kville flips red, it seems highly unlikely Xatalos is scum. Xatalos has more posts and votes too analyze if he flips red, but that's just because Kville contributes NOTHING. Not a great reason to keep him around. Could you expand on what information you expect to gain from Xatalos flipping red? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
I try to make sense of you, but I have no idea what you're doing. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 07 2012 04:08 kushm4sta wrote: For instance, xatalos has been a huge defender of drazzak (huge being a relative term since his contribution has been quite limited). If xatalos flips I have a huge argument prepared for his connection to drazzak which I have been saving since it is worthless unless he's scum. Yeah, that's a connection, but far from a sure thing. He made a d1 defense of drazak that was very similar to the one Kreb made d2: + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 00:05 Xatalos wrote: I also don't think drazak is Mafia. The typical reaction for pressured Mafia is to get angry, aggressive or desperate, but in my eyes, he has tried to be genuinely helpful - giving away a lot of unnecessary information in case he actually was Mafia. The somewhat frustrated tone in his posts also points more to town than Mafia. On September 06 2012 09:42 Kreb wrote: The key thing to me is this: That really had me thinking. Let me explain. That little phrase expresses the feeling of guilt. First of all, there is absolutely no reason for a mafia to feel genuine guilt at this point. He is being attack from one front (thrawn) and then has his defense kind of destroyed from another front (me). What is the feeling you get as mafia then? Desperation? Maybe. Resignation? Maybe. Anger? Maybe. Guilt? Hell no. For this to be a mafia-move, it has to be a planted feeling. A purposedly planted feeling to fool us. And by this I'm not implying a three-way conspiracy or that it's a great read, just saying it's a resonable read to make. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 07 2012 04:55 Kville wrote: Take my way of posting however you want. I dont want to post false information on some one to get a lynch and seemlike a townie, thats a scums job. I'm going to bed in one hour and I'm leaning towards voting on you because you don't even seem to try to contribute. Can you give me any reasons for why it would be beneficial for us to keep you? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
| ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
For now I’ll just post a couple of thoughts I had last night but didn’t feel like posting because I think it just would’ve derailed the lynching discussion: The town read thing: + Show Spoiler + There are different kinds of town reads. I would say my town read on Kush is based on deductive reasoning. My reasoning is easy to follow and can be disputed for example by showing that claimed facts are wrong or attacking its assumptions. This game is based around critical thinking and if town reads leads to some players being able to exploit leadership roles, the problem isn’t the town read, but that the other players are sheeps. My town read on Kreb is a “feel” read. If someone disagrees by saying “I don’t feel the same way”, we’re in a stalemate. Obviously that makes it a weak town read and I wouldn’t expect others to necessarily agree with it (I’ll go back and check Kreb’s filter and hopefully make it a logical argument later, but right now that’s wasted time because he’s not up for lynching anyway). I feel like this is somewhat relevant now that Kush is taking some heat. I don’t think anyone has commented on the arguments I’ve made for my Kush = townie read. The facts behind are definitely true, do anyone disagree on the assumptions? For me to reconsider my position on Kush I’d like a counter-argument. On September 05 2012 18:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I don't find the case against kush to be strong. I will repeat my earlier arguments: + Show Spoiler + Starting a wagon d1: Usually gives you too much attention (this game is a case in point) Pursuing that townie Cubu: I think at a 4-2 score where no other wagons had any momentum, he still aggressively pursued Cubu. Going after thrawn: Makes no sense to attack the most trusted townie (those were the accusations right? I still need to go back and reread this part) All his actions will give him a ton of attention, that’s not very scummy at all. I’ve been reading through the arguments against Kush but didn’t focus too much on it yesterday because I think it makes more sense to discuss it now. My reaction to reading through the exchange between Kush and drazark was that Kush went into a pretty heavy OMGUS-mode (wrt to those 4 posts he made in response). Is this what you find to be scummy, drazark? Or is there more to it that I have missed? Could you please condense your argument to what you believe to be the most valid points? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 07 2012 19:11 kushm4sta wrote: drazaks main argument against me is just wrong. his facts are false. his case is sloppy. unless someone else presents a better case, I think we should not focus on if drazs accusations are correct, but if they make h mafia. on the one hand they are reckless, which is a trait of town. On the other hand they are senseless, devoid of content, and appear to serve no other purpose than to sow confusion and start a flame war. Look at when it starts, right as I accuse xatalos. sorry for formatting this was written on my phone. This wouldn't have happened if you just stayed calm. If you're suspicious of drazak then look through his filter. Make a coherent argument that doesn't come off as OMGUS-ing. If you think he's trying to sow confusion and start flame wars, you're helping his cause. I'm going to look through Stutters posts because I basically gave him a free pass yesterday. I also postponed answering to Jacob because he didn't come off as a good d2 lynching candidate. And of course I expect Xatalos to answer the questions he left hanging. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote: @Sonic Death Monkey So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution. Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV). You also say If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain. (As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.) Basically your rebuttal is that my “entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution” and then you shoot back with accusations of your own. I explain why you’re wrong… + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages. The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about: 1) Lynching lurkers. 2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy. 3) List-making. You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy? As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread. It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid. Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box. I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all. The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2. + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote: Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before. Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good. The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all. The question you answer here isn’t the one I asked. I wanted to know the intent of your original posts, the posts that made you a suspect in the first place. Which I explain in my next post… + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: EOD = End of day Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect. You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game? So what was the motivation behind your generic posts d1? I'm sure a smart player like you have motives. Did you really think they were pro-town? You came off as really defensive despite it being clear your posts were useless and that you knew the game well enough to understand that they were useless. You were basically saying “hey guys, focus on motives, my motives are clean”, when it’s clear that the motives of generic posts and then just showing up for EOD can easily be motives of scum wanting to fly under the radar. Why so defensive of these useless posts? D2 you play differently. You contribute with some meta on Kville and calling out KillingTime. This is of course appreciated and gives a reason to let you stay in the game. After the heat you had taken on d1 this was pretty much required and of course what any smart player would do (townie or scum). My question regarding d2 is one Kreb brought up earlier: the KillingTime accusations. To me they came off as a distraction that hurt the more productive discussions. Did you see any chances of actually lynching KillingTime? If not, why wouldn't you just let those accusations wait? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 03:33 JacobStrangelove wrote: Guess who can't sleep. @sonic Just what productive discussions are you referring to? If you were talking about the kush/drazak that could be the same thing. If you were talking about kville... well it is obvious what happened. The discussion was hardly there anyway. Honestly the productive discussions weren't all that productive and it did show a side of killing that is now very suspicious. Also stutters had not so useful posts day one but he has made useful posts day two. Unlike killing time who has avoided most things both days. Do you not notice or comment on the state of killings integrity right now? However this is speculation. I will now read through you filter. I would agree on your survival chances kreb :/ Yeah, I think Kush/drazak was a distraction, which is part of why I think we didn't need yet another case thrown out at that point. I was going through Stutters' filter and I didn't want to mix in random thoughts about others in this post. Just because I'm asking Stutters questions doesn't necessarily mean I think he's the #1 suspect or a good lynch for tomorrow. This is just a good way of forcing information from someone we gave a pass on d2. There's 48h of d3 before the lynch choice and I don't think we should even be talking about lynching subjects at this point. I haven't had time to read up on all the developments of the Killing case, but I certainly will. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 03:30 Kreb wrote: Oooo. My if-I-die-post will be good today, I might have figured out something.... hmmm. Just gimme some time to write a proper post. Consider I think my survival chances are fairly limited, I'll make sure to help with what I can. If you can, make sure to post it just a few minutes before deadline. I'm not around for EON and I think it's pretty counterproductive to post an if-I-die-post which scum have the time to read. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 07 2012 23:01 JacobStrangelove wrote: + Show Spoiler + This is a large post but it has been cut into sections of Defense of Imcasey, defense on stutters, case on killing, case on drazak. I will save Kreb for another time as it would be too long otherwise. I just hope the formating works. Ok this is the start of a very long post as of such I will try to be as clear and concise as possible. Kreb you missed a large section of my argument for why WeeTee Imcasey is town. First off I will show you the backstory. If you look at WeeTees first posts it includes this. On September 02 2012 21:19 WeeTee wrote: Good to see you here @jacob should be a good game this time! It is evident that he and I know each other. Why else would he single me out? In other words I know how he plays. I know his meta better than anybody in this thread. Also watching his last mafia game he has used the exact same play style. Now you mention that it isn’t an imcasey read it’s a WeeTee read. Yes but they are the same person. It’s as if you put someone with multiple personalities in the thread but they are the same person. If I am 99% sure WeeTee is town I can assume that translates over to imcasey. Also there are plenty of reasons for the less posting style. With him having to leave this means he was unlikely to be able to form cases day one. Also with the replacement going into his first game a day in so much to read and this would also contribute to the lack of posting. I will post the part you missed about my argument for WeeTee. On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote: I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch. While the argument in context might be a little out of date the facts about WeeTee remain the same. Also there is this from kville (he was talking to xatalos at the time), while kville was a little trolish you can’t tell me this doesn’t make sense. On September 05 2012 22:55 Kville wrote: Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious. And finally we have nothing proven scum against him. I am sure if we examine the filters of people we can come up with a far better target. Non of this let’s backup vote imcasey stuff, that just makes it more likely the scum will spread confusion and force us to vote for him. Now I would also like to point out this. On September 07 2012 15:09 KillingTime wrote: ... well that is annoying. I agree that the reason that we ended up with a Xatalos v Kville situation was because we were all accusing each other. I said at the start of the day I really hoped that we could come up with a better lynch target.. but we did not. Scum have succeeded in thoroughly bamboozling me I have to say. I will look into the thread this evening and I'll be happy to answer questions from those who have suspicions of me. After the flip Kush and I immediately analyse it talk about it start making reads etc... Kililng comes in and makes a “annoyed post” and also says he is bamboozled and says he is happy to answer questions about himself. He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum. This is another fluff post saying he is confused. Surely he would have an opinion on what happened. He says so much however his major posts are lists and he is very non committal. Surely someone else sees this! While my arguments up until this points haven’t been the clearest if you think I am town why do you think I hardly left Killings side. Intuition has to could for something and it has. He was not able to answer why he was so non committal his only reply was On September 07 2012 00:01 KillingTime wrote: First, if you feel I have been non-committal or weak in my play then I can only apologise and say this is my first game and I am definitely learning as I go. That is not an excuse, but it is the most likely explanation for "weak" town play on my part. I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town, everyone else I am currently suspicious of. This is not really a reply, for me it is an excuse that anybody could use. Also his case on stutters is due to kush/xatalos pushing the conversation away from him. His one major non listed case was based on association. On September 06 2012 17:02 KillingTime wrote: Ok, having re-read through a bunch of filters today I think we should lynch Stutters695 - Yes his posting/lurking has been/is reason enough to lynch him. But, reading back through filters there has been way to much redirection of discussion away from him as a good lynch - particularly from kush. ... Now, this does not mean that both Kush & Xatalos are mafia if stutters flips - but that is WAY too much subtle redirecting of a target for me. Stutters is as scummy as anyone at this point, if he flips we will have some strong targets for d3. If we lynch him and he is not mafia, town is in a bad spot - but we are in a bad spot regardless of who we lynch if they flip and are not mafia (kreb has convinced me of this with his case against kville that there is no point not going for lurkers.). I would also like to point out that kush seems to be following his meta as well. Admittedly meta talk in a newbie game is a little hard but you would think rolling scum would mess with how they would act. Also if you notice stutters filter and replies I will tell you why he is likely town. He did have a slow start day one. Considering drazak kville weetee cubu all had slow day one starts two who are confirmed town and one who I pointed out seems confirmed town to me this is no reason for a scum read. What you should look at is the quality and logical reasoning in his filter. You should read the whole post but in particular. On September 06 2012 18:28 Stutters695 wrote: Please explain what part of my play has been more scummy than someone who has been trolling the thread and not contributed anything? ##FoS Killing Time I need to go through his filter but this isn't the first time he hasn't taken a stance on issues while posting "reads" that don't actually commit longterm. While kville did show up as town in the lynch he was an easy lynch, scum would want to lynch the slightly harder targets so they have a free win by the time they get to end game. For example if we lynched stutters it would be easy to convince town to lynch kville. If anything if we spent another day with him in the game we would have been frustrated into lynching him. Also he returns fire on killing time and is way more active engaged asking questions giving responces. He questions kush and drazak on the issues and responds on a manner I can only call logical. His filter isn’t filled with fluff so I suggest you read it for yourself as everything he says comes across in a pro town questioning way. Now I am going to transition to drazak. His vote on kush only caused confusion and was purely a slug fest with no real reasoning behind it. After being “caught out” as such by kville and stutters plus the kush argument he backs out and doesn’t comment. He hardly provides good reasons for his mistakes, Also he has a bad habit of calling kville useless. However enough of that I will provide posts and reasons. On September 06 2012 18:03 drazak wrote: My accusation wasn't out of nowhere, I made a read based on what happened, I reasoned, carefully. I saw that Kush wasn't scumhunting day 1. If you're not scumhunting, you're not furthering town, if you're not furthering town... you're mafia. I then saw kush slipped by overreacting to me. Feel free to poke holes in my actual reasoning instead of calling me scum for making a reasoned accusation. Kush wasn’t scum hunting day one? I’m a freaking unicycling unicorn. First his Kush isn’t scum hunting read is based on this. On September 05 2012 11:55 drazak wrote: I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches. Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush. ##Vote Kushm4sta But then his day one post was this On September 03 2012 21:24 drazak wrote: My best read is cubu. He's tried to throw suspiscion, he stopped posting when he had nobody to lay thin accusations on. Cubu has posted only with low content, low value posts, he hasn't had any real reads other than discussing statistics and how afk I was. I think Cubu isn't a great D1 lynch though, which is why he doesn't currently have my vote, if he continues to have such low content posts tomorrow, he will certainly have my vote. Cubu is someone we can try to analyze tomorrow and figure out if he really is mafia, we can't analyze kville, and if we wait to lynch kville it's not going to get better, we don't even have a baseline for him. To that point, I'm someone you can analyze D2, you have several posts by me, with fairly decent content. Even if kville isn't mafia, he isn't helping anyone. In addition, I felt that going for cubu would just be bandwagoning at this point, which as town doesn't help me at all, espescially considering I do have my own unique thoughts, which I have shared with everyone. The whole “even if kville isn’t mafia he isn’t helping anyone” isn’t this the same thing? They are both talking about lynching the worst townie however drazak covers himself better (something a scum would do over a town) refering to the bandwagon and trying to convince people he is town by pointing out he is town not just assuming everyone knows he is town. “which as town doesn't help me at all” This would be obvious if he was town. Anyway these are my thoughts on Drazak. Because of the lengh of this post I will save Krebs analises for my next post probably (if I find anything) My intuitive thoughts are “he has seemed town but he is saying some strange stuff that I need to look into.” I know I’ve given you kind of a hard time, but I like this post. It’s easy to comment on because you really managed to make it express it clearly. That doesn’t mean I agree with everything and I have some questions/thoughts (some of your points I simply don’t understand, but I’ll be leaving those aside for the moment): WeeTee/imcasey – I’m not as convinced as you are 1. Do you have meta reads on WeeTee playing as both townie and scum? Otherwise your meta read becomes a bit shakey. 2. About Kville’s argument, I don’t agree. Maybe you do given your meta, but the fact that he made himself one of the prime suspects d1 means he wasn’t “playing safe”. If he was townie and was worried about getting suspected, he would’ve tried to contribute more and better. 3. The meta read is still a just-trust-me-on-this-one read. While I would like to be able to just trust you, I can’t blindly do that. 4. I think it’s pretty clear imcasey is a newbie and in order to clear himself as townie, I encourage him to post as much as possible. Newbies are likely to slip up as they increase their activity. 5. This doesn’t mean I think imcasey will become a good d3 lynch. We would really like a lynch from which we can gain information. Since we’re in a terrible position where (if I understand the rules correctly) we might need to have three consecutive scum-lynches. I don’t see how the Combined posts/votes of WeeTee/imcasey will give us much info at a red flip. But if imcasey keeps a low activity level, he’ll be at risk later days if we get there. KillingTime – The case certainly has some good points 1. He has indeed been very non-committal on his scum reads. 2. His town reads are very “safe” as well. 3. “He makes no mention of scum hunting. Why? Because he doesn’t need to hunt scum, he is scum.” – This seems like a classic example of feeling guilty (because you are) and being trapped inside the thought process of a scum (typical newbie tell). 4. It’s still an open case for me and I haven’t done much research on my own. Stutters – I think you would like to think you have a good townie read 1. It kind of seems to me like your main reason for town clearing Stutters is because he was basically the first one on-board of your Killing case and helped blowing wind into your windmill. (is that even a saying?) 2. “He returns fire on killing time”, is that really a townie read for you? 3. It is possible he picked up on a misread of yours and took that as an opportunity to gain an ally while at the same time getting a townie lynched. 4. Hell, from my point-of-view you could even be working together. A conspiracy I know, I’m just saying any combo of t/t, s/t and s/s is possible as far as I’m concerned (although I don’t have scum lean on you). 5. He does ask a lot of questions, I’ll give him that. It’s a good sign but like I’ve said in previous posts, it doesn’t necessarily make him townie. I’m obviously conflicted, since I feel like the case on Killing is a pretty good one, but I’m not confident Stutters is a townie either. Both can’t be scum unless we have some epic leveling going on. Not only is epic leveling in itself unlikely, but it’d make no sense for Stutters to bus Killing considering the Killing wagon had little momentum before Stutters’ accusations. I think looking closer at Stutters answers to my questions can be helpful. Moreover, it’s almost as if Xatalos is slipping through the cracks, he’s another potential lynch we’re waiting to hear from. I’m definitely not set on who to lynch. We need to keep going, ask questions and see what develops. In the end we need to find the best possible lynch. The most likely scum isn’t necessarily the best possible lynch, because we need to take into account what information we gain given a red flip. I would also like to point out that we’ll likely only be at a 5 to 3 advantage tomorrow. It seems to me we pretty much have to form a consensus on who to vote for, or a last minute scum switch can cost us the game (barring some kind of blue role save). As of right now, the three main candidates for me are: Killing Xatalos Stutter I might add that I haven’t been totally convinced of the drazak case. I agree he’s made some weird cases and arguments, but he didn’t particularly strike me as scum. I haven’t read his filter though, he’s at best neutral to me. Kush and Kreb are still my only town reads. I don’t find drazak’s case against Kush convincing and still, no-one has commented on my town read logic. Kreb is a “feel read”, so take it fwiw (I’ve made a n2 post on this). I hope I’ll be here tomorrow. If so, my activity level might drop a little because I have a friend visiting over the weekend. I’ll try to find time to catch up whenever I can though. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 10:01 kushm4sta wrote: Now we learn if we actually have a medic maybe.... On September 08 2012 10:19 BioSC wrote: drazak, the Medic, was found dead! LOL, this just cracked me up. This doesn't have to be too bad though. Obviously getting our medic killed off is unquestionably bad, but we didn't know we had one anyway, so let's just pretend drazak was a vanilla townie :p I was thinking we'd likely end up 5 to 3, but now we're 4 to 3. We're still looking at the same scenario, we need to lynch three consecutive scum. However, now we need to find 3 out of 7 players instead of 3 out of 8. Simple probability theory tells us that the former is quite a lot easier. At least given that drazak wasn't considered anywhere near a cleared townie. It's also possible that there's a good vig strat where we can end the game in d4 (not sure yet if that'd make sense for us though and we still obv need to find all scum). One thing I find really weird is your discussions about the vig. To me it seems like only way you can know who the vig is by having extra info. I know there are three red players in this game with more info than the rest of us, so I'm really curious how Kush and Jacob can be so sure. Sorry for being passive aggressive, but I don't want to throw out all my thoughts on the vig situation right now. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 14:35 KillingTime wrote: Kush has so far pushed Drazak, Kreb & Cubu - &FOS's xatalos. Leaving aside Xatalos, that is a 100% miss rate so far and now you are pushing me because my reads are too safe and non-committal. Welp, that is pretty funny. I have no idea why town should trust anything you say at this point. Also - I have no idea why you are asking that question because the vig has only one shot? I agree.with sonic that we should roelclaim at this point - we need all the info we can get because if we mislynch again we lose Where did I say we should roleclaim? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 20:06 kushm4sta wrote: @Jacob ##fos sonic. He has not been getting enough scrutiny as he should and I have not noticed him all game. He's been so under the radar all game, which is suspicious to me. Fair enough. I haven't been under the radar because I haven't contributed though, but because none of you guys have been questioning me. It's not like I'm going to build cases against myself. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 06:49 Stutters695 wrote: Good question but a pretty simple answer. No I didn't see a KillingTime lynch as going to happen. However KillingTime would have been my best lynch based off of post content. I wanted a Kville lynch until he actually started contributing. Seeing as it felt like Kville and I were the two main lynch candidates I couldn't let those accusations wait. This is arguable, but the only thing that felt like it kept me alive over Kville yesterday was that I responded to questions (what you call me being defensive I call me clarifying my points since they were broad, I'm not arguing that). Given that the most asked question of me was "Who are your major reads, who do you think is town" etc. there was absolutely no reason for me to not post my best read. I could have made a case on Drazak or Xatalos or imcasey but it would have been a rehashing of others arguments as opposed to bringing a new perspective onto somebody. The question I found the most interesting among those I asked was the last one. With all the info we have now, I didn't think the d1 case against you is very strong anymore (we should be able to make better decisions than basing reads from limited d1 reads). However, the last question was trap (which is why I was a little annoyed that Jacob tried to answer the questions for you). I thought through the possible answers and came to the conclusion that there were three: 1) You thought there was actually a good chance of lynching Killing. 2) You didn't think there was a good chance but you thought it was a good idea to discuss it asap. 3) You were trying to save your own ass. So I was considering what excuse a scum would use: 1) Not only do I myself think the possibility of a Killing lynch was really small, shortly after Strutter made his Killing case, he posted this: "Currently though my best vote is without a doubt on Kville". So if he had claimed he thought there was a good chance of lynching Killing he would've been FOS. 2) This is answer is just dumb. Stutter doesn't seem dumb. This answer would've also been FOS, bet less so than 1) because it could be that our opinions just differed. 3) I think this is the least likely answer a scum would give, but the most likely actual reason behind bringing it up (whether townie or scum). Note that he was on both mine and Kreb's list of highly suspects before making the Killing case, but was afterwards dropped from most d2 lynch discussions. Basically you gave me the exact reasoning I had expected from an honest townie. While this doesn't necessarily clear you (because it could also be the answer from a really good scum), it does make Stutter a lot more townie in my book. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Still, from the last days I'm leaning townie on Kush, scum on Xatalos (although Kreb's point that it's a null read has some merit), currently I'm pretty neutral on Jacob and imcasey is a total null read. Jacob, could you address my post from yesterday? I don't understand the imcasey = sure townie argument. I don't have a lot of time atm so I won't throw out random team reads. I will make sure to be back later tonight though. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 21:33 kushm4sta wrote: yeah the vigi does only have 1 shot. so there's nothing wrong with revealing him. I'm pretty certain it's iamcasey, although the vigi only having 1 shot makes me less certain. !!there is no reason why vigi shouldn't roleclaim at this point.!! I doubt mafia would risk a counterclaim and we could have a confirmed town. I thought it was Jacob or Kreb. Kreb obviously made a case for drazak before his if-I-die-post, Jacob made a case n2 as well. But basically anyone who read Kreb's post could've made the shot if they found it convincing. That's why I found it weird why anyone would be so sure. Obviously if Kreb was vig there's not going to be any claim. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Fuck, I knew I should've thought this through before posting. We should not discuss the vig. If the vig is around he can wait to claim d4 or d5 when it's more valuable. Only if he's about to get lynched he should claim. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 22:20 kushm4sta wrote: @sonic check the first mod post. Vig only has 1 shot all game long. He is useless now except as someone who can roleclaim and Confirm town. Ps my phone bat is running low quickly so expect a sudden drop off of activity. Doesn't matter. Vig shouldn't claim. If X is vig and gets to a three person end game, he can claim and we increase our chances drastically. If he claims now he gets whacked and we have no information in the end game. Only if he's up for lynching should he claim. The problem is if Kreb is vig, that leaves it wide open for fake roleclaim. Will have to think more, but don't discuss who's vig yet and don't claim before we've thought this through. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 22:31 kushm4sta wrote: Nice I found a charger. @Sonic who do you think we shouldLynch d3? Aka who is your strongest scum read atm. Because we can't get this wrong. I think Killing is the strongest case, but I'm unsure if we gain enough info if he flips red (it would give one more day of getting info though). We shouldn't focus too much on one player yet. I need to think this through more but I don't have the time atm. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 23:33 kushm4sta wrote: @sonic kreb was a vanilla townie it said so when he was killed. I think we should focus on 1 person. We have no certain mafia yet, so relying of associative cases, looking for the scumteam before the scum adds too much complexity, too many variables to our search. I think kiLLing is the most scumlike person and the best lynch. Do people agree or not? Oh fuck, I was being stupid. That means: Absolutely no vig claim and no discussion of the vig. I think we should focus on at least a few different candidates. Let's hear others opinions though. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 08 2012 23:57 JacobStrangelove wrote: In this post you basically list three null reads. (you say leaning scum on xatalos but you leave it open with the krebs point) But I just don’t understand how I can be a neutral read, I am 93 posts in on this thread. Not saying post count is an indication of town but I would have to be the freaking genius of the world to pull something like this off and not slip. Also your town read (obvious town read on kush) thinks I am town, kreb thought I was town, I was opposed to a kville lynch (who was town) and was going at killing all game (who seems most likely scum in the eyes of kush and I and now xatalos). Either I am mafia that looked at the other mafia players and went ehh who cares about them I’ma play for town or I am amazing, the other option of course is that I am town. Yeah, that post wasn't very clear. You could probably tell I was throwing out a lot of half finished thoughts earlier today. I got some time to clarify now though. The first paragraph (the one you didn't quote) was meant to explain the latest developments of my reads. That is, Stutters' answers to my questions gave him a decent amount of town points in my mind. The fact that I think that the Stutter vs Killing feud is unlikely to be fabricated automatically means this makes me more suspicious of Killing. The second paragraph on the other hand (the one you quoted), was meant as a brief summary of my reads from earlier, that's why it opens with "from the last days". That's reads I haven't found a reason to change on d3. I've explained my reasoning on my Kush read so many times before, I don't think I need to do it again. Xatalos has been one of my long time suspects, but the post you quoted was made before he started making productive contributions on d3. Still haven't read those posts, will go back and do that as soon as I can. My read on imcasey is weak, he hasn't posted a lot at all. That's why I was asking questions about your read, hoping to start a discussion, but I still don't think you've responded (I might be wrong, if you've posted on d3 I might've missed it). My reasoning for why I'm not sold on your imcasey = sure townie is clearly spelled out though, the ball's on your court. You raise an interesting question, my take on you. That hasn't been explained. I went after you on d2 after your filter coming back very non-committal. I never really had you as a prime suspect but at that point we needed to put some heat back on active posters after a d1 of lurker hunting. Anyway, in the end you gave quite satisfactory answers and your long-ass n2 post had some solid analysis. Also, and like you said, you've made a lot of post and they've been long. In my experience spazzy scum players tends not to make too many long-winded posts. If they do, you'll usually be able to find a good case looking through their posts. Now to why I don't fully trust you. Early game you were very indecisive. The only case you had was the Killer case, but even that you didn't fully commit to. Now you claim imcasey is 99% townie and make confident statements about Killing, Stutters, drazak and vig reads. When I question some of those reads, you don't even respond. Why so confident now and why don't you answer those questions? It seems to fit scum strategy very well not to point too many fingers early game, just to push your agenda late game. On September 08 2012 23:57 JacobStrangelove wrote: I know you replied to this but it still stands that you voted for someone not your scum read. Stutters could be busing Killing time however his case was put up when I was the only one even kind of on him and even then I was doubting myself (at the time) also what you are doing is more bus style play. You are seeing there is a good argument and saying yeah I see your points. Maybe you are both bussing him. I mainly just want answers (simmilar thing to was I was doing to killing a while back) as we need everything we can get. I didn't vote against my scum read. My #1 scum read was Stutters and I voted for him. The discussion was about my ranking of #3 and #4 picks. Kind of a hypothetical discussion and I still think my reasons behind it is solid. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 09 2012 01:28 Xatalos wrote: Sonic Death Monkey, are you on board with lynching KillingTime? Why / why not? In your latest post you were hesitant because lynching KillingTime would give "limited info", but please forget factors like that. Everything is decided with this lynch, so it has to hit Mafia. Besides, if we lynch KillingTime and he flips Mafia, it would give more info than with imcasey or Stutters695 flipping Mafia (at least KillingTime has been more active than imcasey or Stutters695...). Not really. We don't win the game if we lynch a maffia d3. It only makes sense we care about whether we lose on d3 or d4 and I sure don't. This means that information is important, but quite hard to obtain without some analytical work (it sucks thrawn or Kreb is around, I don't have the time this weekend). For this reason I could get behind the idea of lynching the most like scum, my guess is usually it's best anyway. I guess where we differ is that I consider you one of the lynching candidates. On September 08 2012 23:31 Xatalos wrote: When considering today's lynch, I'm going to just flat-out ignore kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey as lynch candidates. You three have been the most active and contributive posters so far, which also makes you the most likely townies. I'm not saying there can't be Mafia among you, but if we somehow managed to get 4 votes on one of you, the chance of hitting Mafia wouldn't be good. Certainly one of you flipping Mafia would make it much easier to find the remaining two Mafia, but as I just explained, we can't risk an immediate loss for future benefits. If you really trust those three players (you're basically saying you're willing to risk the outcome of the game trusting us) and all of us are leaning towards Killing, why do you try to change the lynch to Stutters? What you're saying about us consolidating the votes is very true. I'm going to look primarily to Kush when it comes to the d3 lynch, secondarily to Jacob. If someone else is behind the decision of the voting candidate, you being one clear example, I'm going to be very sceptical. Also, in your opinion Stutters, Killing and imcasey are likely scum. Do you have any thoughts about the Stutters vs Killing feud? It came at a very weird timing for it to be manufactured. The only heat Killing was taking at that point was from Jacob, and even he was backing down. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
| ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 10 2012 01:34 JacobStrangelove wrote: I'm still not asleep *sigh* But if that is all you saw you missed almost everything. It was to do with the all to happy to lynch killing thing as well as the fact I saw the killing case become non existent. Not only that I couldn't reply to the case for imcasey being town several things you said and aligments I noticed the slip by xatalos regarding killing and the thing he said about stutters and multiple other things. It's all in the thread, to bring you up to speed I used my power as confirmed town and the arguments I presented to convince kush and almost force the vote on you. Also xatalos and you can't both be town and xatalos was convinced that you were town. To me it looks like you went all in on this killing lynch and then when you were caught out xatalos gave himself away completely by trying to save you. If he was mafia and you town he wouldn't care if you were lynched. He would prefer it. The only reason he would care is if they bet on you being called town and the lynch on killing. With this backfiring he is also implicated. Another thing to note, if killing was mafia then wouldn't xatalos have tried to save him at least a little. he wouldn't be able to save imcasey infact you both (if I recall correctly) were going at imcasey because you were safe in the fact killing was set to be lynched. I'm not sure if you're town or not, but with all those conflicting theories you've thrown out today I've hard a hard time seeing that done by a scum. If you ARE scum, very well played. Skimming through the thread most things you've said about me makes it seem you've barely even read it. On September 09 2012 13:58 JacobStrangelove wrote: If stutters went too hard at killing to be a bus and he is almost positive town now, then doesn't your style seem rather bus like. For example the stutters killing was to... aggressive to be a bus however you say "good points" and you passively agree about killing time. You seem to passively agree about xatalos. You are only actively going at imcasey. It is really unlikely that you and imcasey are a scum team so my question is are you scum passively busing your two scum mates and betting because of that you can get a lynch on imcasey? Honestly at this point I have said it before and I will say it again. The game seems to be down to is imcasey scum or sonic. That's not what I said at all, I was talking about the weird timing: On September 09 2012 08:16 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Also, in your opinion Stutters, Killing and imcasey are likely scum. Do you have any thoughts about the Stutters vs Killing feud? It came at a very weird timing for it to be manufactured. The only heat Killing was taking at that point was from Jacob, and even he was backing down. On September 09 2012 21:54 JacobStrangelove wrote: This probably seems strange to you considering everything that has happened but think for one minute if killing is town. Xatalos/Sonic are voting for him. These are now my top two scum reads. I can't believe I have been this stupid all game. Sorry if I am getting frustrated I just need to make you see this. The imcasey is town was a weak case. Why do you think I had so much trouble explaining my town read on him. Your read on him is related to my read (im part) and I think my read is actually messed up. In sonic pretending to bus imcasey I realised imcasey is scum. However not his intention I worked everything else out. This is what I've been arguing all along (there's no "bussing", I've said your case is weak). Now you agree I'm right, and that makes me scum? Seriously, what's happening? On September 09 2012 21:54 JacobStrangelove wrote: This probably seems strange to you considering everything that has happened but think for one minute if killing is town. Xatalos/Sonic are voting for him. I haven't voted for him. I've even been the one to suggest we need to look into others as well. I will vote for him now though. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 10 2012 02:50 kushm4sta wrote: Do I agree with or even understand Jacobs case? No. But we needed consensus so rather than trying to convince him otherwise by making a case is my cell phone I just went with it lol I'm afraid the reason you don't get it is because it makes no sense at all. At this point it really seems like it will put a quite an awesome exlamation mark on our abysmal performance in this game though. Wow, maffia games can be really freakin' frustrating. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
![[image loading]](http://drawception.com/pub/panels/2012/3-31/gNzycwCsZ3-2.png) | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
Still have no idea why I was getting lynch. Is it fair to say it was a "feel read"? Because it didn't seem very well logically reasoned. In any case we got owned. Biggest disappointment of the game was the TL site screwing up format of this post (townie points to the one to first see the scum tell): ![[image loading]](http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/2033/scumu.jpg) | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 17:38 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well it started as a feel read (just seemed what you were saying was a little off) and when I looked at you as if you were mafia everything in the thread made logical(or intuitive) sense. So it was intuition or a feel read that made me no longer confused. Cause up until that point I honestly didn't have much of a clue. However it clicked and made perfect sense. Problem was I didn't have much time to explain it all logically (like 10 hours til lynch and I needed sleep) so after putting up some arguments and seeing I wasn't going far I just decided to force the vote. Honestly the thing that set it off was you saying imcasey was probably scum. When I realised that was true it helped because you wouldn't be in a scum team with the others but you would with him. Something along those lines... Also the way killing was acting helped. I can't actually see the scum tell (lol) I might have seen it in game but I don't remember. That's one of my problems with your read. I never said he was probably scum. And pointing out that your extreme confidence in your imcasey read was unjustified is something I would've done as town 100%. I don't think there's anything in the thread that necessarily make me look super towni, but I don't see what makes me look scum. It's hard for me to look at my actions objectively though. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 17:47 KillingTime wrote: Did you really try to post that written in that manner? Ouch, funny that we suddenly ended up lynching you after you were so confident enough to do that. I was 99% sure no-one would see it. I'm actually suprised you immediately saw it even after I hinted at what it was. And yeah, that's how it shows in the preview, but not when I posted. I was pretty confident at that point though. After Jacob's n2 analysis post where he was basically completely wrong, I got really confident. I even think I said in the Maffia QT that keeping Jacob is a good thing because he's misleading everyone else. Look at how that turned out :p | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 18:49 JacobStrangelove wrote: Haha yeah I noticed  probably going to get night killed day two whenever I roll town now... let me mislead everyone then kill me.It wasn't so much that you would be scum for saying that but it just made me look at you. Honestly you played a near perfect game. Not so much that you questioned me on imcasey but more that because of your questioning I realised he was scum. With him being scum and the way killing reacted making him seem so town like. I was able to put killing as more town than you and with casey being mafia and stutters vig I only saw you left. (at this point I had xatalos almost confirmed scum due to the way the kville lynch went{and other things}) Also all the little things made sense. (you not wanting a vig reveal etc..{althought he vig thing seemed to confuse everybody for a while}) I am mostly just lucky my intuition kicked in. Nothing major just when I looked at filters with this mafia team in my head nothing felt wrong. I also found it amusing when kush got upset at xatalos for Nk-ing me. Although that said I am not sure if I will play mafia for a while. Getting near the end of the semseter for me. Might play in the holidays. I still don't get how you confirmed imcasey scum. Or how the Kville lynch made Xatalos confirmed scum. Or how them being confirmed scum made ME the best lynch. Don't get me wrong, it was still a very nice play. Sometimes the brain can process lots of small stuff you can't put to words (I guess that's intuition). You relied on yours and it paid off. The way I acted wrt the vig reveal was exactly how I would've reacted as town. My problem was since I didn't have enough time to explain exactly what I meant. I don't think the vig should reveal unless he's at the risk of getting lynched (or like Stutters, doesn't follow the thread closely enough to be able to react in time). Having the vig wait for the reveal seems better from a town perspective. It's possible that analysis is wrong though, there are both benefits and drawbacks of an early reveal. At least I didn't have scummy intentions when discussing it and I probably would've been better off just not discussing it :p | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 18:50 DarthPunk wrote: That's the problem though. When it came down to it There were only 4 townies in the game. and you did not make the top four whichever way you looked at it. I recommend you all to read this if you have not already. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=362042 It was a bastardised version of this scum hunting strategy that got you. I think going for the perfect victory caught up with you. And you were also over confident by the end judging by the Scum QT. If I were you I would have bussed one of your own HARD. Then you would have been in the position Jacob was in and could have lynched anyone of your choosing. I'm not sure. There was a lot of momentum behind the Killing wagon. Not only Jacob but also Kush and Stutters were behind it. That's the entire town team. Remember Jacob's reads going into d3 was: imcasey: certain town Me: almost certain town Xatalos: leaning town Killing: almost certain scum My d3 plan was going hard at Xatalos and Killing. Trying to free Killing from suspicion seemed like a really bad move because given the circumstances he's getting lynched on d3 >75% of the time and we win (if anyone claims anything else you need to put away your ex-post goggles, Jacob's save was a clear outlier). Depending on how well Xatalos defended himself d3 I was open for pushing his wagon instead though. Basically just like I would've played as town. Negative elimination had me worried, like I hinted at in the beginning of d3 (I thought it would've been Xatalos getting lynched, not myself). I couldn't possibly prepare for this scenario on n2 though, because I didn't think they had a vig. Their vig meant that both Stutters and drazak (two of the players most suspected for being scum) became cofirmed townies and instead of a scenario where the town needs to find 3 scum out of 8 players they only needed to find 3 out of 6. I was really out of the discussion for being negative elimination eliminated before those events. At d3 the variables of the game completely changed and I didn't have the time to be around and influence it. So if you're telling me I should've planned bussing a scum at n2 already, I disagree. If you're telling me I should've bussed Xatalos d3 after Stutters claims vig, yeah I agree, but I wasn't around at that time. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 19:57 DarthPunk wrote: If Casey and Sonic had Bussed you hard. Like at the start of the day, before all the shit with jacob happened. I think you would have won the game. Imagine Casey and Sonic two players who could have both pushed for a lynch on killing with the added benefit of being right. Did you notice how everyone followed Jacob with no question after the SDM lynch? That could have been SDM after your lynch. In that case it would almost certainly have been GG. Oh, I didn't see this post. The entire town team was behind lynching Killing and we're supposed to start the day off by lynching Xatalos hard? What would be the rationale behind that? | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:12 marvellosity wrote: lol, was it a vigi who hit drazak? Yeah. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:17 marvellosity wrote: let me find something for you guys edit: read the few posts starting from here. drazak all but claimed medic in-thread ^_^ further edit: That one was the cutest. Hapa and I had big smiles talking about the passage sitting on IRC. Yeah, we was a little bit late on the ball on that one. Close to EOD2, Xatalos in Maffia QT: Something caught my eye. Maybe drazak is a Medic? He says this: drazak United States. September 05 2012 10:38. Posts 106 PM Profile Report Quote # Not to demean his memory, but he could have been good mafia convincing us he was town and trying to lead us into bad lynches. drazak United States. September 05 2012 10:40. Posts 106 PM Profile Report Quote # I'm saying from a medic's point of view, I wasn't sure about him myself. Obviously he WAS town, but he had a lot of town power which isn't always a good thing. My response: Btw, I had no idea what drazak was talking about when he made that post. I've heard blue roles are the most likely to talk about blue roles, so you might be onto something. We'll see in a few minutes :/ OMG sick read :D | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:23 DarthPunk wrote: It is safer. I think you would have won for sure that way. The way you played it out relied on the fact that the three of you looked more townie than the four real town. From reading the thread I am not sure taht was a safe assumption to make. If you had bussed Xatalos day 3. You would have a lot of town cred with which to get 1 mislynch during the next two days. If you don't understand the rational behind it. I am sorry. but it is obvious to me. If you are going to bus for town cred. It is worth much less if the suspicion is already on you. If you did it whilst the suspicion was on killing it actually has value. Of course I understand the rationale, it's basic town cred hunting. What I meant is it doesn't seem rational to go after Xatalos at the start of d3 as town. If it's not something rational to do as town, it's fishy to do as scum. He had basically been afk for five days and now I'm supposed to go lynch him hard before he's had the chance to post anything? Even though there's really no new information to sway my opinion in that direction? As town I would've reacted to what he said and as scum I act like I would've acted as town. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 21:25 DarthPunk wrote: And If you feel like you need something to justify a Xatalos lynch in order to satisfy your town personas, then you could easily manufacture it in the QT. Yeah, I agree that would've been a good idea. | ||
|
Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On September 13 2012 22:06 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't entirely understand Jacob's read on SDM, but I think it does illustrate a couple of faults in the early-game mafia strategy. If you look at the situation on D3 from Jacob's point of view... Himself Kush Stutters KillingTime iamcasey SDM Xatalos At that point in the game, every player in the game was treating stutters and kush as almost confirmed townies. Jacob was also very strongly town to other townies. The only mislynch mafia could have pushed KillingTime. If Plan A didn't work, Plan B" was to roll over and die. Why did this happen? Mafia's Night 2 Kill of Kreb! Mafia really had no business trying to blue-snipe on Day 2, because it didn't fit together with their Day 1 play. For some reason, Mafia established the "townieness" of kush very early on. Not shooting him is a huge liability, because he is one less person for the town to mislynch in later days. Not shooting him created a D3 where town basically had a 75% to catch scum. As a side note, I really hate bluesniping in newbie games in general. You should only blue-snipe if you see an obvious bread-crumb, a blue-claim, or a very obvious tell (i.e. Drazak's early N1 posts). Otherwise, getting rid of obvious townies, regardless of skill, is a great idea to set up for the endgame. Even without the iamcasey modkill and the vigi-shot on Drazak, I still don't think scum were set up well for the later days. The scumteam got complacent, and were too happy with their early-game play to continue and push their advantage. This game gets harder and harder for mafia as the game goes on, and it requires proactive play throughout. Oh, and Drazak's medic claim was awesome. Kinda surprised no one picked up on the significance TBH =P Yeah, that mistake is on me. I thought we could kill him off later, but I underestimated the need of killing off others (blues and other trusted townies) so in the end we had too many confirmed townies. And +1 for this game getting harder for maffia in the late game :p | ||
| ||
