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Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 3

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Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 03 2012 20:38 GMT
#312
And now shit seems to hit the fan. I know not being able to be around for EOD would come back and bite me in the ass. I hope you guys will be able to make some good decisions.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 04 2012 07:26 GMT
#339
On September 04 2012 06:15 Stutters695 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2012 05:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Alright, a couple of thoughts.

On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up!


First, why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here?


This has been addressed, read the last couple of pages.

On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
@Sonic Death Monkey
So your case against me consists of determining I have "pseudo-helpful posts." What part of my post was "pseudo-helpful"? The fact that if I point out things that don't necessarily mean scumtells because I don't want to see the town go down the same road as it did in XXIV? Fair enough it hasn't been the most helpful but your entire case on lynching me is off of a lack of contribution.


The case is based on you contributing a few times without any valuable reads or questions. Your contributions have been about:

1) Lynching lurkers.
2) Low post counts not necessarily being scummy.
3) List-making.

You've only covered the most generic questions possible and without helping out on reads and who to actually lynch. You've been in the thread but you're the definition of laying low. Put yourself in my shoes, reading your own posts, why wouldn't my read be that you're scummy?

As for XXIV, I haven't followed TL maffia threads. You'll have to enlighten me as to why your posts in this thread was meant to avoid whatever happened in that thread.

On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
Like others are saying why am I a better lynch than Cubu? He's said he's suspicious of Drazak for one post (which could easily be a misunderstanding of the rules) and is asking people to kill off Kville instead of him because he isn't there. Not providing reads to show why he'll be helpful day2, he just should live because there is someone afk. You bring up how a lurking scum tends to be more rational without any explanation as to why you say that (except to further your own case) and justify not lynching Cubu. Spazzes have been scum before in newbie games (DrWiggl3s, YourHarry) and the only reason they've lived was due to giving them the benefit of the doubt for days (Got Vig Thrawn lynched instead of Scum YH in XXIV).


It's based on experience and what I believe to be fairly sound logic. The first is obviously my personal observations of games, admittedly limited to 4-5 games, mostly newbie. The second is covered in the quote in my last post. The inexperienced town newbie knows he's townie and he usually underestimates the difficulty of getting this information across (it's really hard). This leads him to 1) underestimate the risk of getting into a sticky situation and 2) overestimates his chances of getting out of those situations. The reverse is true for an inexperienced scum. I'm obviously working with probabilities here, the fact that there are exceptions doesn't mean the analysis is invalid.

On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
You also say
The low level of Cubu's contributions makes him a better lynch candidate even though I think Drazark may be a more likely scum.
If you think Drazark is more scummy why would you ever consider Cubu over him? It's not like a flip on Cubu confirms anyone else's alignment this early in the game. Explain.


Because if we keep Cubu around I'm worried he'll just keep his nonsensical posts coming. Since Drazark is more active and tries to contribute in an intelligent way, keeping him there's a good chance we can get a better read later (in either direction). There's a decent risk Cubu will remain a black-box.

On September 04 2012 04:25 Stutters695 wrote:
(As a side note I've just contributed as much as Cubu in terms of scumreads, but you're missing my point from earlier still. It isn't how often you contribute its the intent and what you contribute.)


I don't think so. What was the intent of your contributions? Like I said, it seems like your posts are trying to look like contributing without actually adding much value at all.

The case against you isn't rock solid, but as I've just explained, it's the wagon I like best. You've mostly stayed out of the thread for ~40 hours and now show up for EOD, why haven't posted anything of value earlier? You've put yourself in a shitty situation because not everyone will be around for EOD (as a Euro I need to go to sleep now). I still like your wagon better than Cubu's so I'm leaving my vote on. If you're really townie I hope you survive and give me a chance to change my mind d2.


Sorry what's EOD? I haven't heard that expression before.

Regarding XXIV: In XXIV we went from lynching a lurker D1 to lynching our most vocal town. Day 2 we lynched a claimed Vig Thrawn over a scum YourHarry. This happened because instead of focusing on motives and what was said everyone except 3 of us just assumed YH was so bad he had to be good.

The intent of that post is showing you how you've spent all of day 1 tunneling me off of one post instead of checking other people. I'm not saying you're wrong for questioning me but you're going to be sorely disappointed if I get bandwagoned, flip town and you're the only person who has interacted with me at all.


EOD = End of day

Honestly I don't find this response very satisfying. It seems like we have quite different experiences from the game though and we might both be biased. Imo d1 the town usually focus way too much on active players while scum try to fly under the radar. That's why I like putting pressure on lurkers, you were just one of them and the one I happened to find the most suspect.

You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?

You're also still ignoring this:

On September 04 2012 06:12 Kreb wrote:
Stutters

You started off by ignoring this:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2012 02:04 Kreb wrote:
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote:
On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.

Good catch, forgot about that.

Any comments on this, Stutters?


Then you follow it up by posting this:

Show nested quote +

Part 2 Incoming. I just wanted to address the case against me first to give you guys times to look it over.

So, we got this part 2 coming anytime soon?

Or are you, for the second time, saying you will do something and then just ignore it?
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 04 2012 07:29 GMT
#340
I wouldn't read too much into the Cubu lynch. To me it seems like a pretty standard d1 lynch where a careless newbie town says stupid things, the town goes "this makes no sense, let's lynch him" and we have a d1 mislynch.

I don't have more time right now though and will need to get back with more thoughts in the afternoon.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 04 2012 15:37 GMT
#358
On September 04 2012 16:30 Kreb wrote:
He did reply to my post Sonic.


I really shouldn't be posting before my morning coffee, I missed that reply.

On September 04 2012 21:44 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2012 16:26 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
You're saying we're focus too little on motives? The motive of flying under the radar is to just sit back while the town starts flinging poo on eachother. I'm still not sure what your motive of making generic posts was. Maybe someone who followed XXIV can chime in? Thrawn, it seems like you were playing that game?


I'm not exactly sure what you want me to chime in on but I'll talk about scumhunting priorities that you and stutters seem to be arguing about.

In XXIV, there was a massive shit-flinging fight between shady and I. There were people who thought shady was being completely illogical, and there were people who though I was being completely illogical. The vote was closely split between shady and I and shady ended up getting lynched. But the people who voted for either of us voted on the premise that illogical posting = scum. There weren't any good scum-motive explanations for either shady or my actions and the votes were completely based on "well this guy says dumb stuff." Then D2 I got lynched and flipped vigilante, and once again nobody was voting based off scum-motive suspicions. The case against me was that my vig claim was unbelievable, and there was an association case against me because another player and I had made extremely similar posts at the exact same time which made people think that we were in conversation with each other as scum. Meanwhile there was a player who had been saying extremely illogical stuff, but most people gave him a town read because they thought there'd be no way that a scum would be so illogical. His actual actions/votes were so extremely scummy throughout the whole game. However, people ignored that because they were spending too much time trying to make reads based on the quality of his posts, when instead they should have been looking at his motives behind the posts. The point is motives>quality of posts in terms of importance to making reads.

That was the reason I favored lynching stutters over cubu. They both were heavy lurkers without much actual contribution in the few posts they had made. The people who voted for cubu did it because the quality (reasoning, writing style, and relevance to the thread) of stutter's posts was much higher than cubu's. So in their eyes, having low quality posts (see my earlier definition of quality) makes you look scummy. I didn't think that was a good assumption to make, and I preferred voting stutters because stutters had done less scumhunting than cubu. At the time of deciding between the two, the only scumhunting stutters had done was the very last paragraph of this post. Cubu of course hadn't done as much scumhunting as most poeple, but his contributions towards finding scum were more than what stutters gave. It was a vote based on motives instead of quality... somebody who doesn't scumhunt (ask questions, state what you find scummy, accuse people with FOS and such) is not a town player.


I was mainly asking for your (or others') opinion on whether his posts made sense knowing the XXIV background, but thanks for describing the event in detail.

Stutters, I think it's a fine to make the argument that low post counts doesn't necessarily equal scummy behaviour and that motives > quality. But trying to rationalize that low post counts doesn't equal scum while at the same time contributing nothing is shady. We don't want to justify lurking, we want people to look for motives while at the same time making good observations/reads/analyses (d1 you did neither).

I got some thoughts on last yesterday's events, but I still got some catching up to do in this thread.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 04 2012 19:02 GMT
#370
Reads from d1:

Kush is my most clear townie read. Starting a wagon on d1 is not scummy, rather the opposite. What makes him almost a dead sure townie though, is his way of aggressively pursuing the Cubu wagon even at a point where it was highly likely to succeed. At that point scum would've just sat back and relaxed. Stutter was my #1 suspect d1 (reasons given a million times already) and he has contributing with little to nothing for me to change my view of him being scummy. WeeTee was my #2 suspect at the end of d1 but is getting subbed. It's possible his terrible posts came as a result of a lack of time, I still have a scum lean on him and will keep a close eye on imcasey's posts. Kville snags the spazztard of the day award in the last few hours. Considering he's playing in other maffias games he shouldn't be a complete newbie and he should realize he really needs to get back into this thread and start answering questions and contributing. Since he's not a complete newbie I'm hesitant to apply my policy of giving spazzes the benefit of a doubt, he needs to start posting more and more qualitatively or else he's getting my vote (he's useless anyway).

When looking at yesterday's voting pattern, there's really only one thing that pops up:
At one point Cubu placed a vote on Kville to tie it up 2-2. At this point Jacob and Xatalos put down votes on Cubu. If Kville is maffia, it's possible Jacob or Xatalos wanted to push Cubu's wagon to save him. This gives some extra weight behind the case for lynching Kville, as it may give us information on Jacob and Xatalos. If Kville is maffia I highly doubt both Jacob and Xatalos are scum though, so the information we would gain is limited.

The fact that we had so many wagons going came back to bite us in the ass. First, having our votes so spread, it gives maffia a better chance of affecting the outcome. Second, the Cubu wagon started rolling way too fast. He got far ahead and at that point voting pattern analysis is useless, because it's only in a close townie/scum wagon that the scum is put to the test (to save or not to save?).
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 04 2012 19:23 GMT
#371
On September 05 2012 02:52 Kreb wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2012 02:48 thrawn2112 wrote:
On September 05 2012 02:34 Kreb wrote:
On September 05 2012 02:31 thrawn2112 wrote:
On September 05 2012 02:09 Kreb wrote:
On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote:
##FOS Kville

Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p

I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling.

Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this:
Play to win.
Isnt Kville pretty much by default....
A) Scum
B) Breaking the rule
It could even be argued that he is....
C) Both
?


Yeah I think regardless of his alignment he's trolling. Based on how he posted near the voting deadline I was wanting to lynch him and I thought that kush was thinking the same thing as well, but at that point it was too late and not enough people were in the thread. (top of page 17)

So what should we do about it? Trying to get meaningful posts and arguments out of a troll player is just going to result in more trolling so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it during D2 because of the odds. If we lynch him D2 and he's town, then we will be at 6:3 town/scum ratio if the night kill goes through without a save/rb. Policy lynching is ok for D1 but I don't really like it for D2.

Kville, this is why if you are town you need to start participating.

I dont know. We could attempt to lynch him D2 while pleading for a modkill before the vote goes through should he be town. Maybe thats shitty because we basically cant lose, so mafia will be at a disadvantage. But I just cant see how he did not break the rule if hes town.


The problem with asking for a modkill is that there is always the extremely unlikely chance that he is town and actually thinks he is playing to win. There is also the problem that asking for a modkill under the condition that a player is a certain alignment puts the mod in a position where they would be unfairly giving out information. I think we should leave all discussion of modkilling to the mods unless he blantantly and unquestionably breaks rules.

Fair enough. I agree it would be a pretty dirty move to ask for a modkill like that (as I indicated in my previous post).

But in that case we might as well just auto vote him to get rid of him, regardless of alignment.


We need to just chill for awhile. It's still just n1 and we got 48h of d2 before next lynch. If we decide to lynch him already it means scum can feel safe for the entire d2. We should keep our options open and consider other lynching candidates as well. He should definitely be on the list of highly suspected though.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 04 2012 20:55 GMT
#373
On September 05 2012 04:43 thrawn2112 wrote:
I propose a back up policy-lynch plan on kville D2. All the people that have spoken up about him recently (kreb kush myself and sonic) have all expressed sentiments of at least not wanting him in the game regardless of his alignment. His play is just too strange to make sense from a town perspective.... but if he somehow is town then he's being so purposefully anti-town that lynching him would be the best possible townie-lynch.

If he continues on how he's been playing then I'm going to ignore him so I can focus on getting a solid scumread on someone else. If I'm unable to make a case I'm confident in and nobody else's cases look convincing, then I'm going to ask everyone who is in a similar situation to lynch kville.

Is there anyone that thinks back-up plan lynching kville is a bad idea? I'd like to hear some possible town-motives for his posts or reasons to keep him around because I don't see any. He's definitely not everyone's strongest scumread, but it seems to be the consensus that his play is anti-town townie if not anti-town scum. It'll be similar to a D1 lurker lynch policy, in that we all will have an agreed upon alternative lynch plan if we fail to produce strong reads by the end of the day cycle.

He is my strongest scumread because I see absolutely no town-motives behind his play, but I think we should pursue other cases for the time being because a read on kville is based off of so little information. (7 total posts)

Say so if you agree or disagree, and then set the matter aside unless it needs to be brought up at the end of D2.



I think this is the best strat. We keep pressure on scum and we keep pressure on Kville to change strat if he is townie. We don't really lose anything by keeping Kville around and there's a >0 chance he'll start making sense.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 05 2012 09:38 GMT
#418
I’ve been going through some filters and one player coming back scummy is Jacob.

Collection of posts where you just latch onto others’ wagons/reads:

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 05 2012 11:48 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Wait so both killling and Xatalos were going at weetee/imcasey? *cough* doesn't this sound right. Considering according to thrawn (confirmed town now) both had week reasoning for cubu and Xatalos was defending killing in a non committal way at one point(not much but...) Sonic case is so out of date though. Even I stopped harassing him as I ended up at least partially satisfied.

I would look at the Xatalos/Killing filters if I were you. They both seem to be starting a bandwagon. Xatalos starts it and then killing jumps on. I agree policy lynch on kville/stutters might be a problem considering the place it would leave us in.(if they flip town) That said I want to know more about you guys (kville and stutters) go out there say stuff. You are likely to get lynched before these guys so try and help us out. Also you would think he would wait for imcasey to start posting. I could be wrong so anyone feel free to point out any illogic here.


Bolded: If you were who? A townie? Do some work instead of trying to have others being the ones putting their life on the line. You really seem like a poster being on the outside looking in, you insinuate Xatalos and Killing are scummy and try to get others to make the work for you so that they can get into trouble if wrong.


+ Show Spoiler +

On September 04 2012 22:42 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey)

So what do you think now? I have been ranting at you for a while (maybe misguided) but you could give me something to go on. You also mention that it is
Show nested quote +
"Kush's Cubu wagon"
any particular reason for this? Just thought it was slightly strange that you would point out who started the wagon in particular.

Also you could have a scum motivation for trying to stop people talking at night. Just saying.

Also here
Show nested quote +
Leaving aside your other points for the moment
You left them aside forever. The only other comment you seemed to make was
Show nested quote +
Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did.


You would think you could come up with something better than that? When people accuse me of things I list reasons why it's illogical and such. You seem to be hiding under short posts now.


Latching onto my and thrawn’s Stutters read.


+ Show Spoiler +
On September 05 2012 12:10 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2012 11:55 drazak wrote:
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote:
Why town should all vote for cuba

Worst case scenario:he flips green
No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.

Best case scenario: he is mafia
If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game.
People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn.
People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn.
Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else.
Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?

We need three more votes on cuba.


I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.

Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.

##Vote Kushm4sta


Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying.


Once again just latching onto someone else’s analysis, but then explain you won’t take a stance because “There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying”.



Even when you post your reads it’s all very non-confrontational, except when it comes to Cubu (it’s also worth noting that your reasoning for voting Cubu is weak). You really tries to keep all your options open:

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 03 2012 21:33 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Yeah, I am back. Tired but back. I will likely vote before bed as I am unlikely to be awake. So lists or no lists xD (not going to start that again as sonic said not a big deal) At the moment all the focus is on Kville Drazak and Cubu. So a list of three is appropriate.

Kville I find hard to believe would be mafia. Posting twice? Could be a great bluff strategy but honestly I think he got into the game and thought. Ahh who cares. That said he isn’t useful in the game unlike Drazak. Although apparently his previous activity was high in other mafias. I haven’t got time to check that and it was coming from Drazak but interesting to consider.

Drazak: I maybe biased towards the one person who thinks I am town but he seems more like a mildly scared town (as opposed to a really scared mafia see Cubu) Most of it is vibe based however as he said if we lynch him we have less to go on than if we don’t. So leaving him in the game at least temporarily is more useful So I would vote (and probably will before bed unless a good argument comes up) Cubu first.

Cubu: Need I say more? Could be a scared town but he reacted so horribly. Most likely an inexperienced mafia.

Oh and about WeeTee. I would be hesitant to lynch him because his game activity last game was similar and he got lynched as town.

So I will probably vote Cubu, Kville, Drazak. Unless one of the others or cubu comes in with a perfect argument I don’t see this changing much.




I gave your non-confrontational style a pass early d1, but at this point there are no excuses and you laying this low definitely comes off as scummy to me. Regarding you Cubu vote, just throwing random ideas out there and sees what sticks:

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 03 2012 22:53 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Vote count is in the other thread I think. But Cubu or kville? Both of the at risk voted kville most likely as a "I want to survive" tactic. But also reasoning behind it.

Also what about stutters? I forgot him, in what ever case the more information argument comes in. Stutters as provided something more than both. So more likely to have more to work with day two. I'll watch a movie and be back, need time to think about it.



Your only post wrt Cubu with some kind of substance is this:

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 03 2012 12:03 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers?


Lynching the lurkers who have posted completly nothing is 50-50 could be bored town could be terrified mafia or terrified town you never know. You however are lurking (only one post longer than one line and that post is just statistics) and if you read what I wrote. I explain why you are a better choice. (than kville who I assume you are reffering to{but also not pick a lurker to lynch!})

You are not being decisive (you say lynch the lurkers.) What lurkers? Do you not want to be connected to the lynch? Sounds like scum to me.

You have plenty of time to prove me wrong though. While lynching active members is more 25% chance or whatever (not going to go into the maths) you aren't exactly what I would call active. So in lynching you we ARE lynching a lurker.


But it’s still wishy-washy and poorly reasoned. I don’t even get bolded part. Would you please also explain your Killing/Xatalos connection theory more concisely? I don’t see how it’d make sense, it's just you latching onto thrawns analysis that both had poor reasonings for voting on Cubu (and you insinuating that both of them voting WeeTee somehow would make them a pair of scum?)

Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 05 2012 09:49 GMT
#420
I also like the Xatalos case last night was well made. He's been flying under the radar for far too long and we need to put some heat on him. He's not just posting infrequently, but fluffy. I remember thinking his first contributions were decent and it helped getting the thread started, but kick-starting the thread just to follow it up by laying low is scummy. After that he's mostly been fluffy.

Best wagons:
Stutters
Xatalos
Jacob
(Kville is a back-up)

Town read:
Still just Kush, but I need to catch up on the latest contributions to the thread. We need to put more focus into clearing townies, as it's a great help limiting scum possibilities (big newbie mistake is focusing too hard on just finding scum and I think that's what's going on in this thread atm).

I don't find the case against kush to be strong. I will repeat my earlier arguments:

+ Show Spoiler +
Starting a wagon d1: Usually gives you too much attention (this game is a case in point)
Pursuing that townie Cubu: I think at a 4-2 score where no other wagons had any momentum, he still aggressively pursued Cubu.
Going after thrawn: Makes no sense to attack the most trusted townie (those were the accusations right? I still need to go back and reread this part)

All his actions will give him a ton of attention, that’s not very scummy at all.


We've got a lot of work to do in this thread, I will be back later tonight.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 05 2012 09:51 GMT
#421
Almost forgot about imcasey, I will wait for him to contribute more before judging, but he's a potential wagon as well.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 05 2012 17:12 GMT
#430
On September 05 2012 19:22 JacobStrangelove wrote:
I HAVE looked through those filters and because if it I want more people to do the same. It's obvious I am the big one going at killing at least so I am in a spot if he is lynched and flips town. Despite almost nobody thinking he is scum (after his list post day one people all thought he was town{not going to start the lists are easy to hide behind stuff again}) Also I don't think I am latching on to other peoples reads if I am going for killing and Xato. (xato maybe but you must realise almost everyone has been accused so almost everyone thinking the same could be a bandwagon move).

The reason I am putting the pressure on Killing and Xato so much is so they explain what is going on. Assuming you are not mafia the likelyhood of one of them being one is high. So I agree we should put the heat on him that is what I have been trying to do. I haven’t commited to Xato as I am waiting for a response.

Your and thrawns stutters read does make sense... motivation over activity.

Whose analysis was I latching onto there? The only analysis part I latched onto was the first line. From kush going for Xatalos onwards that was all mine. (With exception to the wagon when tired up part) I am confirming parts of other people’s analysis that makes sense.


Posts like yours are the reason I encouraged clear and concise posting in my first "fluffy" post of the thread. They frustrate me to no end. I already asked you to try to stop rambling but your posts just continue to be all over the place, which is just distracting. (yeah, someone rightly accused me of being "thread police" earlier, whatever, can we please try to make at least some sense when we're posting?)

I went through your posting history on Killing and these are the most logical arguments you made (which speak volumes about the arguments I left out):

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Killing time: I do read you as scum you post twice one with a very safe set of people to accuse (apart from myself to this point) and you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason.


Standard early d1 fluff/lurk accusation, nothing wrong with that really.

On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Sonic: I am also unsure about sonic due to the point you brought up regarding him being a fluffy poster as well. That said (I am doing this again I know...) what he said about it fitting everyone in the thread so far also is a sound argument. However my initial scum read was sonic. (due to fluffy posting) only question is why would a sonic Killing time team act this way?

[...]

Kreb: Maybe a scum read but not enough to put him in there. His “list” is basically just agreeing with everything except the one person that is controversial. Possible Kreb/Killing team?


Now you introduce possible connection between me/killing and kreb/killing. For some reason you're out for Killing and you throw out random ideas to see what sticks.

On September 04 2012 16:36 JacobStrangelove wrote:
So who started the bandwagon? Who joined in?(in a strange manner) I am almost sure one of the three sonic, myself or killing is mafia. More killing because he promised a (probably longer post in the evening then just said goodnight.) Admittedly this is a really weak reason.

[...]

YES Exactly Kreb about the weak lynch *cough* Killing *cough* also good point about who was opposed.


A new argument you even find weak yourself. In the second bolded part I don't know what you're talking about (reading the Kreb post referenced didn't help).

On September 04 2012 22:42 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey)

So what do you think now? I have been ranting at you for a while (maybe misguided) but you could give me something to go on. You also mention that it is
Show nested quote +
"Kush's Cubu wagon"
any particular reason for this? Just thought it was slightly strange that you would point out who started the wagon in particular.

Also you could have a scum motivation for trying to stop people talking at night. Just saying.

Also here
Show nested quote +
Leaving aside your other points for the moment
You left them aside forever. The only other comment you seemed to make was
Show nested quote +
Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did.


You would think you could come up with something better than that? When people accuse me of things I list reasons why it's illogical and such. You seem to be hiding under short posts now.


Lots of words, no accusations of substance and now you want logical explanations?

On September 05 2012 11:48 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Wait so both killling and Xatalos were going at weetee/imcasey? *cough* doesn't this sound right. Considering according to thrawn (confirmed town now) both had week reasoning for cubu and Xatalos was defending killing in a non committal way at one point(not much but...) Sonic case is so out of date though. Even I stopped harassing him as I ended up at least partially satisfied.

I would look at the Xatalos/Killing filters if I were you. They both seem to be starting a bandwagon. Xatalos starts it and then killing jumps on. I agree policy lynch on kville/stutters might be a problem considering the place it would leave us in.(if they flip town) That said I want to know more about you guys (kville and stutters) go out there say stuff. You are likely to get lynched before these guys so try and help us out. Also you would think he would wait for imcasey to start posting. I could be wrong so anyone feel free to point out any illogic here.


Here you introduce the Xatalos/Killing connection. As far as I understand, it would be based on the fact that:

1. Thrawn claimed they both had weak reasonings for voting Cubu. Killing didn't vote on Cubu until after the point it was sure he was getting lynched though. You yourself put in your vote at a more scummy timing after the wagon had already started (giving Cubu a 3-2 lead vs Kville).
2. They both were sceptical of WeeTee? At least half the players were sceptical about WeeTee and for good reasons (at least at that point in the game). You think they're scummy because they didn't have the same pre-game read as you?

On September 05 2012 18:12 JacobStrangelove wrote:
No you have that completly wrong, I was more thinking you would town lynch WeeTee and then bus or town lynch whoever town disliked most out of Stutters kville. I know I am pushing you but it's mainly so I have more information. You are the only one I can force to talk at the moment as kville and Stutters seem like hopless cases.


Why wouldn't he just lynch Cubu? And how come you're so sure WeeTee is townie?

Cliffnotes:
Suspecting a Killing/Xatalos connection has no logical explanation.


I will concede to the point that you're taking a risk with your Killing insinuations, I didn't realize you went after him this early. That’s the one read you’ve committed to since the start (aside from Cubu) but it makes no sense. If you actually went through his filter I find it weird those are your conclusions (explained above). I'm still wondering what motives you have. If you're scum you're playing good, because you give a serious fucking headache.

I can't believe all the time I just wasted going throw your filter
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 05 2012 17:17 GMT
#431
On September 05 2012 13:02 kushm4sta wrote:
Thrawn was like town leader and now he is gone. We need to do is come up with a plan for day 2 so we can as a town stay focused.
We do NOT want to all be accusing different people. That is what mafia wants.
We do not want to be discussing things that do not contribute to the scum hunt.
Anyone have an idea for a day 2 town plan to help us?

In the next post I will discuss this recent drazak vote for me.


I think it's a good idea to build a lot of cases today to get as much info as possible. We absolutely need to be more focused tomorrow and not all go vote on different people.

Atm my top two lynching candidates are:
Stutters
Xatalos

Jacob is just too damn confusing for me to want lynch right now, but among the more active posters he's my highest suspect. Imcasey has shown some good signs in his posting and I'm willing to give him a pass for now. Kville just made his first reasonable post, as ridiculous as it may seem it might be enough to get him through to d3. He still really needs to post more/better.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 06 2012 08:00 GMT
#465
Been reading the back and forth between you guys (Kreb and Kush). I think I underestimated the difficulty to get decent wagons going in time d1 (like Kush pointed out), so I agree it's time to get started. So your suggestions are:

Kush: Xatalos, drazak, KillingTime
Kreb: Xatalos, kville, Stutters

I agree about Xatalos, so he seems set. I'll write a summary of what's suspicious about Xatalos, but my time during the day is limited so don't expect it until 8-10h before EOD (and that's when I'll put my vote in).

About your differences: Unless someone comes up with good cases against drazak and KillingTime I don't see myself giving them my vote today. I've been going through KillingTime's filter and just don't find him very suspicious, neither do I find Jacob's case strong (as I've explained before). With regards to drazak I haven't gone through his filter lately but he just hasn't struck me as suspicious. I won't put time into researching him now because there are better candidates.

My d1 suspicion of Stutters remain. He made a good post today, but we need more of that. It's just sooo easy to lurk and post one good post a day. In that post he implied he'd be more helpful today and that's really required. The same can be said about Kville. So basically I agree with Kreb and the bolded posters will get my vote tonight.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 06 2012 08:15 GMT
#467
On September 06 2012 07:36 JacobStrangelove wrote:
1. If it’s a standard early lurk accusation then why mention it?
Yes I did throw around connections and because of that I now know that both you and killing are far less likely to be scum. Remember there are town motivations for accusing people especially early day one when you don’t have much to go on. You can look at the reactions and see how people respond or ignore things. For example, Xatatos just re-entered the thread and didn’t mention a thing about the accusations against him. Whereas both you and killing have without giving me much to go on(in way of mafia reads).
2. I tend to scum hunt differently because if I can confirm enough people town logically the rest must be mafia. Then you can look at the people remaining and go from most suspicious to least.
3. Of course I find the argument weak there was almost no argument strong at all day one. Wouldn’t lynch cubu because cubu was an easy day two lynch. I have been taking a risk with killing insinuations however due to that and the responses I have gotten as I said in the last through posts he is getting more and more town like. Opposed to Xatatos.


1. I just wanted to include it so that my post would be a fair representation of your suspicion of KillingTime (the post might be helpful later).

2. Could you provide a post where you explain those town reads clearly? Your writing is really confusing so you need to straight that up.

3. Why were you attacking KillingTimes though? Please explain the reason you've been attacking him all game and what it was in his postings that made you think he looks more town now.

Btw it's really easy to slip away from questions by not quoting the post you're replying to, so please reply to these questions.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 06 2012 08:32 GMT
#470
Reading the last couple of pages Kreb comes off as townie to me. He seems really interested in scumhunting, makes good points and is helping filling the role of thrawn. This is kind of enforcing the impression I've had of him earlier. I haven't commented on him because those reads without hard facts are usually not great, but I think his posts have been solid, so he gets a townie lean from me.

However, Kreb, I disagree with a couple of things. Your read on drazak being "sorry" is thoughtful and has merit, but it seems like you're putting too much weight into it. Also, I don't think drazak's case against Kush is very similar to Kush's early attack against you. Kush's early attack was kind of a spazz move at a time we had not much to go on, drazak's case just seems poorly reasoned at a time we got a lot of info to work with. This could both be done by a careless townie or a scum pushing an ulterior motive. I don't see what Kush's ulterior motive would've been.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 06 2012 08:35 GMT
#472
On September 06 2012 13:31 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town.


Sleeping strange hours and moving is townie? Drazak is pretty much a null read for me atm.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 06 2012 08:44 GMT
#475
On September 06 2012 17:40 drazak wrote:
I'm honestly a little surprised others aren't chiming in on this, you seem to be the only one kreb. I'll have some more suspiscions for you in the morning, gotta read filters/etc and I've only slept a little.


I've been catching up on the rest of the thread. Will comment on your new posts when I get back (haven't had the chance to read them yet).
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 06 2012 18:32 GMT
#515
Stutters, so you’re back posting. Nice to see. You’re making some good contributions as well. Of course, good contributions can be made by both townies and scum, but good contributions are what we need to solve this game so for now you deserve more time. I still think your contributions d1 sucked, but at this time I think having that discussion again would just be taking away focus from better lynching objects. What's left on my list of high suspects are Xatalos and Kville and I've just looked through their filters. I'll look read up on the latest case additions to the case against KillingTime as well, but I'm having a bad experience with those last hours wagons and I didn't like the case Jacob had.
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 06 2012 18:53 GMT
#518
On September 07 2012 02:38 Kreb wrote:
Also, the vote on Kville is not a policy lynch anymore. As I've pointed out before, he has not even tried to defend himself. Theres absolutely no reason to not do that. Stutters replied when I went on him, Kush/Drazak are replying to each others attacks, Xatalos has replied too (albeit mostly excusing himself for his lack of time). Everyone who has been attacked HAS TRIED (some with better success, some with worse), except Kville.


Yeah, that's a good observation. I still have no idea what to make of the motivations behind that though. Both townies and scums should be motivated to defend themselves.

That's what Xatalos has going for him and why I lean towards a Kville vote atm. Xatalos seems interested in the game and at least it seems like he wants to contribute. And he did contribute quite a good amount at the start of the game, during the weekend. So keeping him for another day there's good chance we'll be seeing more posts over the weekend.


On September 07 2012 02:47 kushm4sta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 07 2012 02:38 Kreb wrote:
Also, the vote on Kville is not a policy lynch anymore. As I've pointed out before, he has not even tried to defend himself. Theres absolutely no reason to not do that. Stutters replied when I went on him, Kush/Drazak are replying to each others attacks, Xatalos has replied too (albeit mostly excusing himself for his lack of time). Everyone who has been attacked HAS TRIED (some with better success, some with worse), except Kville.

Kville is a lurker and he comes in and comments when he feels like it. Honestly I doubt has or will read the thread.
Still a null read because that's just how this dbag acts. So I think it is a policy lynch.
But having said that I would vote for him just because it doesn't seem like we are able to reach a good consensus. I would rather lynch XATALOS over him, however.
Xatalos flipping green tells us more than kville flipping green IMO.
Xatalos flipping red tells us WAY more than kville flipping red.


I agree lynching Kville gives us very limited information, we just get rid of player who doesn't contribute. The question is what we get out of lynching Xatalos. One thing seems pretty sure, if Xatalos flips red, it clears Kville. Otherwise, why would Xatalos promote vig killing Kville? However, if Kville flips red, it seems highly unlikely Xatalos is scum. Xatalos has more posts and votes too analyze if he flips red, but that's just because Kville contributes NOTHING. Not a great reason to keep him around.

Could you expand on what information you expect to gain from Xatalos flipping red?
Sonic Death Monkey
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden991 Posts
September 06 2012 19:48 GMT
#530
Kville, if you're townie, do you really think your way of posting is pro-town? If so, why?

I try to make sense of you, but I have no idea what you're doing.
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