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On September 05 2012 12:43 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allright, Mattchew is set to be lynched.
What can we conclude if he flips scum or town?
In the unlikely event that he will flip town, will we have enough evidence to go for a BC lynch?
My take is, if he flips town, BC's suspicions will go way up, but I don't agree with insta-lynch. We all agreed that fakeclaiming is not something a blue role would do, and is most likely coming from scum.
If he flips scum, then we will take a long hard look at the people who insist that he shouldn't be lynched.
Ox, as of now, is my top candidate for a lynch. He's been so obnoxious and so annoying regarding the whole Mattchew business that he looks the most suspicious up to now. He also has been of zero usefulness this entire game.
@Shiaopi
Your meta is a little off from Dwarf Mafia, where you were town and had much more contribuitive posts in day 1. When will your internet be fixed? Basically that, if Matt flips town, then BC could be anything, but if Matt flips scum then BC is most likely town, and everyone who defended Matt until Palmars confirmation looks kind of bad. People who defend Matt after Palmars confirmation look bad for creating a disruption over something that is allready decided, that Matt lied and needs to die, but I think most scum jumped on the bandwagon long ago.
If Matt is an Assassin then we get rid of both the 3rd Party in return for 2 townies dead. Not a good trade, but I think it´s unlikely that Matt is an assassin. There´s no point in not defending yourself to the end as a 3rd Party, while scum often shut up to avoid giving away any of their buddies.
On September 05 2012 14:38 Bill Murray wrote:
No, Forumite. I don't see how you get that whatsoever. I see you as being scum with Mattchew for not jumping on voting him there. Isn´t that a different accusation? Before you accuse me of trying to get Matt to claim (meaning that you thought I was scum and Matt town), and now you say I´m scum together with Matt. To answer why I didn´t vote Matt early, at the time I was weighing on what Matt was and engaged him in conversation to get a better read, but until Palmar confirmed how Nosy Neighbors works, there wasn´t enough on Matt for me to throw down a vote. Matt was suspicious for claiming NN, but there were no proof that he was really lying at the time. Why should I vote someone who claims a town role unless I have a good reason to think he´s lying?
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On September 05 2012 20:51 Bill Murray wrote:
i dont care what matt's role is at this point
his original post is either a slip, or trolling
There seems to be a lot of people who do care. Even if he isn't scum his lynch gives us by far the most info.
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Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives?
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On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives?
If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on.
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On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on.
I'd say it's the other way around lol.
If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad.
If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo.
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On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo.
I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox?
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well this should be interesting
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anyone got any questions for me?
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On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox? If the claim was so damning that everyone thinks Matt is anti-town except Ottox, maybe the only reason Ottox believes differently is because he already knew Matt's alignment (which could honestly explain why the reasoning he's giving in thread is pretty bad).
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On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox?
well 24 out of 25 people agree that Matt needs to die.
If that 1 guy telling us Matt is not mafia is right that looks awfully like someone having information he shouldn't have or how in the world is the guy supposed to come to the conclusion that Matt's got to be "not mafia" if everyone else agrees he is.
- If Matt flips 3rd party Ottox needs to die 100% because he's a mafia who knew that Matt is "not Mafia" and tried to go for towncred.
- If Matt flips town Ottox probably needs to die because he's still most likely a mafia who thought he's getting towncred that way. I'm saying "probably" because it's possible that he really is the 1 out of 25 chance to be town but that's unlikely.
- If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis.
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anyways going for a walk with my dog. See you in an hour or something like that
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i will flip the winning faction
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On September 06 2012 01:18 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote:On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox? well 24 out of 25 people agree that Matt needs to die. If that 1 guy telling us Matt is not mafia is right that looks awfully like someone having information he shouldn't have or how in the world is the guy supposed to come to the conclusion that Matt's got to be "not mafia" if everyone else agrees he is. - If Matt flips 3rd party Ottox needs to die 100% because he's a mafia who knew that Matt is "not Mafia" and tried to go for towncred.
- If Matt flips town Ottox probably needs to die because he's still most likely a mafia who thought he's getting towncred that way. I'm saying "probably" because it's possible that he really is the 1 out of 25 chance to be town but that's unlikely.
- If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis.
I disagree, this is mostly WIFOM. If matt flips mafia, he will look suspicious because of scum motivation. If he flips townie, then he can equally be a townie who actually thought that matt's claim made sense, a townie who thought that matt was trolling and thought you were a better target, a townie who just wants to feel special by disagreeing with everybody else, a scum trying to gain town cred, and whatever else I can't come up with.
I don't agree with your "he needs to die 100%".
On my point of view, if matt flips scum, he becomes more suspicious, because there is scum motivation in trying to defend a buddy. If matt flips town, Ox will still be as suspicious as he is right now.
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On September 06 2012 01:18 Toadesstern wrote:
[*]If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis. [/list]
I can't see any town member being that paranoid. If that were the case surely they would have a good reason why they didn't think Matt was scum. Ottox's argument only needs a cursory glance to see its paper thin. I think because of how bad his argument is it's not aimed at saving Matt, I assume scum thinks it's impossible at this point, but to focus town's attention away from hunting any other scum members. Honestly unless Ottox has a very good reason for defending Matt he needs to die soon.
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god you are all so scummy... except BC of course.
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and BM.. I repeat, BM is def town!
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On September 06 2012 01:18 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote:On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox? well 24 out of 25 people agree that Matt needs to die. If that 1 guy telling us Matt is not mafia is right that looks awfully like someone having information he shouldn't have or how in the world is the guy supposed to come to the conclusion that Matt's got to be "not mafia" if everyone else agrees he is. - If Matt flips 3rd party Ottox needs to die 100% because he's a mafia who knew that Matt is "not Mafia" and tried to go for towncred.
- If Matt flips town Ottox probably needs to die because he's still most likely a mafia who thought he's getting towncred that way. I'm saying "probably" because it's possible that he really is the 1 out of 25 chance to be town but that's unlikely.
- If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis.
I don't understand why you differentiate between what we should think of ottox between if matt flips town or third. Why does matt flipping third party make it more likely ottox is scum than if he flips town? I mean, it can't be "because ottox was right," given that his argument makes no sense.
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On September 05 2012 09:38 Gravan wrote:First, the straightforward part. It seems to me that Matt is most likely an assassin, or a very careless player. As many have said before me, there is no case for him to do what he did from a town perspective. To me, it seems that if he were mafia or town, we would likely have seen at least some kind of attempt at an explanation - either to strengthen his fellow mafia by giving them 'towncred' as they jump on his bandwagon or to try to convince us we are making a mistake as a town blue. As an assassin, he could just be seeing his end and giving up - this is of course moot if he decides to put in his piece later. Since he is apparently not a random newbie (who is a random newb, anyway  ?), and clearly likes to be an active player, it shouts assasinto me. Since it is day 1 and we only have so much information, we essentially have to lynch him anyway (even if we were nearly certain he is an assassin. At this time, I'll be throwing my vote his way. The post where I make my comments on the information currently present (as in, not to do with the matt bandwagon) is coming up later. I just wanted to put down somehing somewhat solid so thanI can start to develop a post hostory, watery as it might be.
On September 05 2012 13:30 Gravan wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 13:00 Hapahauli wrote:
Why is he voting Mattchew if he's convinced he's an assassin? Hell that post doesn't really explain why he's even voting - "we essentially have to lynch him anyway" - wut? This is my fault for wording this sentence poorly. Although I am still leaning towards Matt being an assassin, he certainly looks all kinds of scummy as well. There isn't enough information at this point to lynch someone else - this lynch will, at worst, be neutral. I feel that, unless someone who has better evidence against them comes up (unlikely) we are better off to make this lynch and gain the information (Matt's flip) than sit idle. I am just asserting that I personally think he is an assassin. I'm done on the whole Matt issue now; still working on making my posts more constructive and less parrot-y. If Matt flips scum, Ottox and Toad really need to be looked at. Ottox has been making his bizarre crusade about the potential innocence of Matt, as everyone knows. To me, Toad's last few posts have seemed a little aimless and very personally aggressive with little content. He spends a considerable amount of time shutting down and pointing at Ottox (who is looking obviously scummy or very misguided) in a well written post, then shifts to personal attacks and negligent remarks. Sleep time for me now; I'll actually have some rest by tomorrow and won't be travelling.
Gravan, what changed between these two posts? Why did Matt go from being "most likely an assassin" with no scum motivations to his behavior, to being "all sorts of scummy" ?
I also reaaaaaallly don't like the "throwing my vote away" comment, but not much more to say about that now.
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On September 06 2012 02:33 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 01:18 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote:On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox? well 24 out of 25 people agree that Matt needs to die. If that 1 guy telling us Matt is not mafia is right that looks awfully like someone having information he shouldn't have or how in the world is the guy supposed to come to the conclusion that Matt's got to be "not mafia" if everyone else agrees he is. - If Matt flips 3rd party Ottox needs to die 100% because he's a mafia who knew that Matt is "not Mafia" and tried to go for towncred.
- If Matt flips town Ottox probably needs to die because he's still most likely a mafia who thought he's getting towncred that way. I'm saying "probably" because it's possible that he really is the 1 out of 25 chance to be town but that's unlikely.
- If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis.
I don't understand why you differentiate between what we should think of ottox between if matt flips town or third. Why does matt flipping third party make it more likely ottox is scum than if he flips town? I mean, it can't be "because ottox was right," given that his argument makes no sense.
it is though. We've all seen weird shit happen like people claiming scum in the thread for no apparent reason just to flip green or even blue afterwards. For example in L Palmar played extremly stupid and everyone wanted to lynch him d1. I was pretty much the only guy who defended him because he did the very same thing the game before that as well and ended up flipping green. In the end I was about the only guy who said he won't vote palmar, palmar flipped green and WBG tunneled me into oblivion for the rest of the game for being "better than I should be". Especially after all the people I called out as mafia flipped mafia as well :p
If Matt flips green it could technically be possible that Ottox saw something he isn't able to express, that's the point. That's why I said he got his 1 out of 25 chance to be town in that scenario though we probably shouldn't talk about it to much until we see Matt flipping. Should not have quoted and answered the thing to begin with...
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EPT
