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not to mention that after those two posts:
On September 06 2012 01:47 Mattchew wrote: god you are all so scummy... except BC of course. On September 06 2012 01:47 Mattchew wrote: and BM.. I repeat, BM is def town!
just screw everything I said. There's no way this dude is going to flip green lol
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at least we know bm is town now :p
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On September 06 2012 01:18 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote:On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote: Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox? well 24 out of 25 people agree that Matt needs to die. If that 1 guy telling us Matt is not mafia is right that looks awfully like someone having information he shouldn't have or how in the world is the guy supposed to come to the conclusion that Matt's got to be "not mafia" if everyone else agrees he is. - If Matt flips 3rd party Ottox needs to die 100% because he's a mafia who knew that Matt is "not Mafia" and tried to go for towncred.
- If Matt flips town Ottox probably needs to die because he's still most likely a mafia who thought he's getting towncred that way. I'm saying "probably" because it's possible that he really is the 1 out of 25 chance to be town but that's unlikely.
- If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis.
I already told you my thought process, wtf is this post.
He claimed, I looked at why would a scum claim and found no good reason, then looked at why a blue or assa would claim and found no good reason. So everyone condemned him as scum for some reason, I was amazed how can everyone let vote ppl without proper content and provide a possible easy wagon so I tried to get as much out of everyone why would they do that (lot of "he lied so hes scum"-> there is no content to discuss). If anything if he flips red every newb or scum will wagon on me, if he flips black/blue then we have at least a couple of ppl with content talking about him, I explained why I think he's more likely to be blue or black in my calculations but I never said that he is 100% not scum.
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@Z-Boson:
I'd like to discuss a couple of things you've mentioned about Ottox:
On September 05 2012 12:43 Z-BosoN wrote: Allright, Mattchew is set to be lynched. What can we conclude if he flips scum or town? In the unlikely event that he will flip town, will we have enough evidence to go for a BC lynch?
My take is, if he flips town, BC's suspicions will go way up, but I don't agree with insta-lynch. We all agreed that fakeclaiming is not something a blue role would do, and is most likely coming from scum.
If he flips scum, then we will take a long hard look at the people who insist that he shouldn't be lynched.
Ox, as of now, is my top candidate for a lynch. He's been so obnoxious and so annoying regarding the whole Mattchew business that he looks the most suspicious up to now. He also has been of zero usefulness this entire game.
@Shiaopi Your meta is a little off from Dwarf Mafia, where you were town and had much more contribuitive posts in day 1. When will your internet be fixed?
Town can be obnoxious and annoying, too. The same can be said about overall usefulness. You can't expect everyone to be useful as town... I can understand if you find his history of defending Mattchew to be scummy, and that seems to be your main point here. However, it also seems to be the only point that holds water. We shouldn't be lynching people who are obnoxious or useless if they're town...
Also:
On September 06 2012 01:32 Z-BosoN wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 01:18 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote:On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote: Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox? well 24 out of 25 people agree that Matt needs to die. If that 1 guy telling us Matt is not mafia is right that looks awfully like someone having information he shouldn't have or how in the world is the guy supposed to come to the conclusion that Matt's got to be "not mafia" if everyone else agrees he is. - If Matt flips 3rd party Ottox needs to die 100% because he's a mafia who knew that Matt is "not Mafia" and tried to go for towncred.
- If Matt flips town Ottox probably needs to die because he's still most likely a mafia who thought he's getting towncred that way. I'm saying "probably" because it's possible that he really is the 1 out of 25 chance to be town but that's unlikely.
- If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis.
I disagree, this is mostly WIFOM. If matt flips mafia, he will look suspicious because of scum motivation. If he flips townie, then he can equally be a townie who actually thought that matt's claim made sense, a townie who thought that matt was trolling and thought you were a better target, a townie who just wants to feel special by disagreeing with everybody else, a scum trying to gain town cred, and whatever else I can't come up with. I don't agree with your "he needs to die 100%". On my point of view, if matt flips scum, he becomes more suspicious, because there is scum motivation in trying to defend a buddy. If matt flips town, Ox will still be as suspicious as he is right now.
I would like to focus on the point of Mattchew flipping scum, which is much much more likely (especially considering his recent postings): I agree that there is scum motivation behind Ottox's actions. But I would be interested in hearing from you if there is also a town motivation for such actions.
We lynch people because they're scum, and not because they're bad town. This is still my read on him, but I would like to hear from you if there's anything specifically that has convinced you it's more likely he is going to flip scum than town. I still feel that defending Mattchew as Ottox has would be suicidal from a scum viewpoint, and that as scum Ottox would never feel so inclined to make such a defense.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On September 06 2012 03:34 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 01:18 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote:On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote: Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox? well 24 out of 25 people agree that Matt needs to die. If that 1 guy telling us Matt is not mafia is right that looks awfully like someone having information he shouldn't have or how in the world is the guy supposed to come to the conclusion that Matt's got to be "not mafia" if everyone else agrees he is. - If Matt flips 3rd party Ottox needs to die 100% because he's a mafia who knew that Matt is "not Mafia" and tried to go for towncred.
- If Matt flips town Ottox probably needs to die because he's still most likely a mafia who thought he's getting towncred that way. I'm saying "probably" because it's possible that he really is the 1 out of 25 chance to be town but that's unlikely.
- If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis.
I already told you my thought process, wtf is this post. He claimed, I looked at why would a scum claim and found no good reason, then looked at why a blue or assa would claim and found no good reason. So everyone condemned him as scum for some reason, I was amazed how can everyone let vote ppl without proper content and provide a possible easy wagon so I tried to get as much out of everyone why would they do that (lot of "he lied so hes scum"-> there is no content to discuss). If anything if he flips red every newb or scum will wagon on me, if he flips black/blue then we have at least a couple of ppl with content talking about him, I explained why I think he's more likely to be blue or black in my calculations but I never said that he is 100% not scum.
As quite a few people have said Matt isn't scum just because he lied. The fact that he disappeared for ages after Palmar's post without defending himself is much more damning than the actual fake claim.
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So I was reading some stuff over, and I really don't like this post, specifically the bolded part:
On September 04 2012 09:05 Forumite wrote:Finished with page 12. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 08:22 DoYouHas wrote: slOosh, my vote is neither stupid nor a throwaway. I have a friend who I consider a better player than me who has told me that getting BM out of the game quickly is always a good thing. It is meta as hell but it isn't stupid.
Toad's aggression towards you is completely null. You seem to be playing into your town meta so far, but I really won't know for sure until your first/second case. I dislike you voting a veteran based on meta. You don´t kill veterans, you wait for them to either 1) crush the scumteam or 2) get shot in the night. If they live too long without doing any good, THEN you maybe consider killing them based on meta. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 07:49 Miltonkram wrote:First things first, here is a list of games I've played in and links to my filters from those games. I start all my games with a list like this because it helps me improve. If I'm scum, I have to avoid playing closely to my scum meta. If I'm town, I put pressure on myself to make good reads. The list is spoilered so as not to take up space. + Show Spoiler +I've got to go to work... on Labor Day T.T I'll be back in several hours. Leave me something to come back to. Too long, didn´t read. I´m not usually basing my reads upon meta that the player himself provided. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 07:55 BlackMamba24 wrote: My general stance is that every blue should ultimately do what they want. The environment of this game should not be about confirming blues and then doing what they say. Just because someone is innocent does not make them right in their convictions or accusations so it isn't of too much help really except for process of elimination.
If a town plan arises I'm not gonna be a part of it but I advice blue players to use their own judgment. Never lynch someone just because they wouldn't claim to the town leader or whatever, that's asinine, asiten, asieleven, asitwelve, etc.
Don't bother asking me for my reads because I will never post a list of reads and I hate it when other people post "reads". Thanks. What do you mean with the bolded part? It doesn´t make sense to me. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 08:01 slOosh wrote:On September 04 2012 07:58 Toadesstern wrote:On September 04 2012 07:56 slOosh wrote: Hapa, what is your idea of a town circle and how does it help us find / lynch / kill scum?
Toad - How is that useless stuff that has nothing to do with the game? The setup changed and maybe people haven't read the updates. I've asked you once and I'll do it again, what else do you want to talk about? I don't know what you want to talk about. I'm talking about your useless post being useless. Well BlackMamba's recent post just shows that people can miss information. My post has already proven itself useful, and your opening post which tries to discredit mine has not. Do you think I'm scum by my first post? What is your problem with Toades? Do you think he´s deliberately disruptive?
We should be killing people we think are scum, no matter the reason. It might be harder to catch a good player with meta arguments, but "veteran" doesn't neccessarily mean "good player" and there are people who have metas that are worth analyzing. I especially don't like this post because it comes from someone who, while not a "vet" in the same sense that BC/BM/BM are, is still definitely in the top third or quarter of players in this game in terms of experience. Seems a little self-serving.
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@Ottox:
Who is your top scumread right now, and why?
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@goodkarma Just because he is up on my suspicion bar does not mean that he is scum. He could very well be a bad townie. If he is, the only motivation he has for defending matt and attacking toad is that he actually thinks that toad is more suspicious than matt, and if so, he's doing a shitty job at explaining himself. Also, him being obnoxious doesn't contribute to his defense.
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Toad, I asked about the vote on Matt and he told me a bunch of things but dodged the question for 8-9 times.
Those who started focusing on Gravan but ignored me.
Those who voted Matt with a one liner.
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On September 06 2012 03:49 Z-BosoN wrote: @goodkarma Just because he is up on my suspicion bar does not mean that he is scum. He could very well be a bad townie. If he is, the only motivation he has for defending matt and attacking toad is that he actually thinks that toad is more suspicious than matt, and if so, he's doing a shitty job at explaining himself. Also, him being obnoxious doesn't contribute to his defense.
At least I am not that retarded to attack someone on the ground of their first post that was clearly a joke. I already explained my motivation two post ago. If you need some help understanding it you can ask for it nicely
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On September 06 2012 03:57 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 03:49 Z-BosoN wrote: @goodkarma Just because he is up on my suspicion bar does not mean that he is scum. He could very well be a bad townie. If he is, the only motivation he has for defending matt and attacking toad is that he actually thinks that toad is more suspicious than matt, and if so, he's doing a shitty job at explaining himself. Also, him being obnoxious doesn't contribute to his defense. At least I am not that retarded to attack someone on the ground of their first post that was clearly a joke. I already explained my motivation two post ago. If you need some help understanding it you can ask for it nicely Thing is: I never dodged your question and answered it 5 times. Thing is: Everyone in the thread agrees that I answered the question just fine Thing is: You say "Toad said X" (I did not answer the question) while 24 people in the thread are telling you "dude, just look at it, toad said Y" (he did) Thing is: You say "Toad is mafia because he said X. That is all I've got on him and totally makes him 100% mafia"
You've got to realize that that looks weird, right?
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Ah screw that guy... I'm just not going to answer him anymore. It's pointless...
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On September 06 2012 03:34 Ottoxlol wrote:
I already told you my thought process, wtf is this post.
He claimed, I looked at why would a scum claim and found no good reason ---SNIP Stopped reading. Let's try again. You're telling me you couldn't find a benefit for scum to fake claim nosy neighbor?
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On September 06 2012 04:05 Toadesstern wrote: Ah screw that guy... I'm just not going to answer him anymore. It's pointless...
Yes, and I already asked you to do that, you speak italian while I speak english so.
On September 06 2012 04:06 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 03:34 Ottoxlol wrote:
I already told you my thought process, wtf is this post.
He claimed, I looked at why would a scum claim and found no good reason ---SNIP Stopped reading. Let's try again. You're telling me you couldn't find a benefit for scum to fake claim nosy neighbor?
There is no good reason. It was dumb, I thought we already agreed on that. There can be if it were a self-aware miller game but if it would be there could be reason to claim it as blue or assa too.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On September 06 2012 04:12 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 04:06 Hopeless1der wrote:On September 06 2012 03:34 Ottoxlol wrote:
I already told you my thought process, wtf is this post.
He claimed, I looked at why would a scum claim and found no good reason ---SNIP Stopped reading. Let's try again. You're telling me you couldn't find a benefit for scum to fake claim nosy neighbor? There is no good reason. It was dumb, I thought we already agreed on that. There can be if it were a self-aware miller game but if it would be there could be reason to claim it as blue or assa too.
OK
1) Yes it was dumb but that has no effect on his alignment. Scum can be just as dumb as town.
2) Matt obviously didn't know that millers were not self aware or he wouldn't have role claimed self aware miller. Whether the role actually exists or not is not relevant to this specific part of the argument.
3) As has been said countless fucking times already there is no reason for him to fake claim self aware miller as blue or assassin.
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On September 06 2012 03:57 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 03:49 Z-BosoN wrote: @goodkarma Just because he is up on my suspicion bar does not mean that he is scum. He could very well be a bad townie. If he is, the only motivation he has for defending matt and attacking toad is that he actually thinks that toad is more suspicious than matt, and if so, he's doing a shitty job at explaining himself. Also, him being obnoxious doesn't contribute to his defense. At least I am not that retarded to attack someone on the ground of their first post that was clearly a joke. I already explained my motivation two post ago. If you need some help understanding it you can ask for it nicely You dont joke about scum reads. You're scum, because you are trying to derail a lynch and not trying to bring up another canidate. Real townie would create a case and present a new option, but scum dont want to give away to much and wont do that. They'll try to plug an easy lurker after a derail.
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On September 06 2012 04:41 BroodKingEXE wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 03:57 Ottoxlol wrote:On September 06 2012 03:49 Z-BosoN wrote: @goodkarma Just because he is up on my suspicion bar does not mean that he is scum. He could very well be a bad townie. If he is, the only motivation he has for defending matt and attacking toad is that he actually thinks that toad is more suspicious than matt, and if so, he's doing a shitty job at explaining himself. Also, him being obnoxious doesn't contribute to his defense. At least I am not that retarded to attack someone on the ground of their first post that was clearly a joke. I already explained my motivation two post ago. If you need some help understanding it you can ask for it nicely You dont joke about scum reads. You're scum, because you are trying to derail a lynch and not trying to bring up another canidate. Real townie would create a case and present a new option, but scum dont want to give away to much and wont do that. They'll try to plug an easy lurker after a derail.
You are wrong. A joke is fine when the game is just started and there is nothing.
You say scum dont want to give away much. Thats my main concern too, no one has to add anything to why they vote Matt, thats why i am trying to get ppl to talk about it.
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Whatever Ottoxlol is doing at this point, it's not scumhunting.
BroodKingEXE brought up that Ottox isn't pursuing his scumreads. He seems remarkably unconcerned with Toadsstern (whom he has a vote on) over the last few pages. He comments how Toad isn't answering his questions and pretty much leaves it at that - never once appealing to other players to take a look at Toad.
In addition, he has an FOS against me from a couple of pages back:
On September 05 2012 02:15 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 02:09 Toadesstern wrote:On September 05 2012 02:01 Ottoxlol wrote:On September 05 2012 01:50 Toadesstern wrote: People who know how to play post things, including fakeclaims as mafia all the time without checking with their buddies and they slip from time to time. If this was some random noob, fine but it's not, it's Mattchew. He most of the time knows what he's doing and certaintly doesn't need to check back with his buddies all the time.
Additionally in the most recent games I played as mafia I figured that a lot of mafia teams really only rely on the QT and really seldomly use other means of communication like IRC or skype which slows down communication A LOT. So in the most recent games I played as mafia pretty much everyone just did their own thing and you would only end up discussing things like who to kill at night or wether or not it's fine if you bus each other.
Again, if this was some random dude with 100 posts in his 3rd or 5th game of mafia fine, I'd agree he'd ask his buddies before doing something like this but Mattchew is not a random noob.
I could maaaaaaybe see him fakeclaim as tracker on purpose IF he knew millers are not self-aware to lure out additional fakeclaims but I don't really see that giving his answers. And if that really was the case it'd be the most stupid kind of play I've ever seen. That's literally the most retarded thing you could come up with but it's at least something I could come up with while the scenarios for a mafia who just slipped make a whole lot of sense My problem with this reasoning is why blue/assa bad play is more probable then scum bad play? Even if you think Matt is not likely to discuss it with his team, he can so why is it more likely? If he's scum he misread the rules then fakeclaimed without discussing it with his mates or they fucked up too. If he's a tracker/assa, he misread the rules then fakeclaimed. in hope of some probable targets (thinking the other assassin would likely claim or maybe even scum) Why is the first scenario is more likely by 19 people? :D I just don't see it. Tell me what I miss Because there's no reason to fakeclaim as tracker. As a mafia you blend in as a townie. He not just fakeclaimed, he also asked everyone to do so :D I wrote down my thoughts about the scenario where he is a tracker, or an assassin, why do you ignoring it? Does it go against your easy D1 lynch plan? sloOsh and your "I'm confident so I'm town lets keep arguing about nothing so everyone can see us active" then your selective answers put you right into my fos along with Hapahauli's strange voteswitch. Yeah, he blend in perfectly with everyone voting him
Not once has he actively tried to push his FOS, despite me and Ottox being active in the thread at similar times. He had plenty of opportunity to push it but completely forgot about his suspicions.
At this point, what is the purpose of Ottoxlol going in and arguing about the Mattchew lynch? It certainly isn't going to stop Matt from getting lynched, and that much should be obvious to just about anyone in the thread. Ottox never once suggests that we shouldn't vote for Mattchew - he only attacks the argument against him, attacking the vocal/active supporters of the Mattchew lynch. But look at his recent quote:
You say scum dont want to give away much. Thats my main concern too, no one has to add anything to why they vote Matt, thats why i am trying to get ppl to talk about it.
Huh? This is completely inconsistent with his "strategy" - he's not trying to get lurkers to talk about Mattchew - he's doing the exact opposite by interacting with non-lurker players!
Ottoxlol is not scum-hunting - he's just picking fights for the sake of picking fights.
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This must be the weakest case ever. Try reading its fun
Do you think there is anyone who could be swayed from voting Matt? No. Hence no cases. Not from me, not from anyone. I suggested to talk about Matt and why is it ok to reduce the whole discussion to OMG OTTOXLOL WANT TO KNOW WHY WE VOTED SO HES SCUM
I did not forgot about it. Is it enough to push a case? No. Wtf is wrong with you.
Its not the exact opposite, are you from the states for real? It is as it is. I asked not only the active ppl. I asked everyone. I had a discussion with actives because they answered? Are you really this bad or am I missing something.
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