EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 30
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
Reads that do not make sense unless aware of alignments. I originally found him Suspicious due to his flip flopping around Solarsail. He explained that this was due to a mason read on GK and Solar sail which I believed to be an incredibly odd connection to make, and the only way in my mind that he would make that connection first is if he was scum. Your Harry's assumption was indeed NATURAL for one who knew both good karma's and Solar's alignments but confusing to those who did not. When I pointed this out he attempted to explain the more natural assumptions that someone in the dark would take with WIFOM. He admitted that his stated reasoning behind his mason read was WIFOM and barely believed it himself. On August 16 2012 13:47 YourHarry wrote: actually, upon re-evaluation, I can accept the possibility that GK was indeed not sure about Solar's alignment but was indeed worried that we may tunnel on a player that he somehow thought was a town. Still, the alternative is also possible. It could have been a scum slip that GK is now fabricating the explanations for. Either way, since this is WIFOM, I want to partially retract my case against GK. Your Harry made a blue read that was unnatural to someone with no knowledge of alignments to make. This has largely been forgotten but was A major point that I kept my FoS on your harry at that time. You may think that making such odd reads was an isolated incident. Except that he did it again. On August 18 2012 10:28 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: I just read your post. I believe you. I also read your bread-crumb post. Initially thought you were investigator due to this post: I knew you were blue role either way. It makes sense though, you asking the detective to not investigate Archrun because you were going to target him anyway. Once again he makes a blue read swiftly and without discussion. A read that would be easy to make if you were aware of others alignments, but certainly not if you were in the dark. I originally thought that this post was an attempt for Your Harry to validate Thrawn's Claim. This remains entirely possible, but even if Thrawn is telling the truth these posts are still damning. He has made two blue reads that are only plausible if you view them with the knowledge of their alignments. Never mentioning Ochrow as a lurker despite FoS on all lurkers Your Harry has NOT ONCE called out Ochrow for lurking, Despite laying a FoS on every other lurker in the game and wanting to potentially policy lynch one of them. On August 16 2012 12:53 YourHarry wrote: FOS Golbat Jyhut Stutters and Archrun for lurking. On August 17 2012 05:20 YourHarry wrote: I think the best lurker lynch candidate is Golbat. Stutters and Jyhut don't have many posts, but at On August 17 2012 05:38 YourHarry wrote: Thrawn, it is called policy lynch for a reason. I don't particularly find Golbat scummy, but if someone doesn't post he should be lynched. That's policy. This will encourage more participation in subsequent days. In this post he says it doesn't really matter which lurker is lynched, and yet he has not even mentioned Ochrow at all in his lurker group. On August 17 2012 05:30 YourHarry wrote: @Thrawn While there probably is such thing as lynching the best lurker, they are basically all lurkers. I did read your explanation on your choosing Arch, but it doesn't seem substantial to me. Having little content in your post is a scum-tell but when someone is lurking, I think it makes a little difference. All of them have minimal contents in their post, so I disagree with your analysis of Arch being the best lurker. I think most important thing is how promising is it that these lurkers will become active posters. I see Arch beginning to contribute, now that there are more posts to go on. So I think Arch could be more active from now on, which will give us posts to base our reads on. If it doesn't matter which lurker is lynched why is Ochrow absent from all the list of lurkers that you originally FoS and why does he not mention him at all when he was clearly lurking. Having to specify he is not scum because it is clear tthat his arguments look scummy. On August 17 2012 09:21 YourHarry wrote: Darth, maybe I didn't explain myself clear enough. This is how I interpret Archrun's motivation. By saying that exactly one of Shady or Thrawn is scum, he is basically proposing to lynch the other one if one flips town. So if Shady flips town, he is asking us to lynch Thrawn and vice versa. This way, no matter who we lynch first, he wants to lynch two townies in Shady and Thrawn (no I am not making a scum slip based on my knowledge that both Shady and Thrawn are town). It is true, I may have misinterpreted GK's post (I still not sure, but let's suppose that I did). The difference is that the Archrun's proposal is clearly scum motivated. In this post he is either trying to establish his scum partner as town, which he has done all game. Or, If thrawn is actually green he is using knowledge of alignment to make his cases. He even realizes this is incredibly scummy and acknowledges this. This is a classic slip. Making excuses for your posts before anyone has even accused you for them. On August 17 2012 14:11 YourHarry wrote: And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. Again guilt of his actions scumminess before anyone has even accused him. Classic Scum behaviour. It is even written about in the guides. This post is also damning as it seems he was desperate to avoid a thrawn lynch at all costs. And yet, he incredibly also states that thrawn was one of his scum reads at the same time as he was saying he was all but confirmed town. and that I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. The last thing I want to point out that makes me believe he is scum is this. As I mentioned before he instantly believes thrawns vig claim with shaky reasoning and little discussion. Then he defends and defends and defends thrawn as if his own success depended on it Defends Thrawn from day one onwards. Then immediately after that post where it seems as if he just wants to delay the inevitable. We get On August 18 2012 14:08 YourHarry wrote: For the record, and I am repeating myself here, my strong town read on thrawn was based on my strong scum read on Archrun. It turns out that I was wrong, but in my recent game, the scum did exactly the same thing as Archrun - attempting to benefit from a mislynch of one townie to ensure a mislynch on the second townie. So I felt confident that Archrun was trying to do the same thing. Aside from the ease with which the Thrawn bandwagon is gaining momentum (an attempted scum lynch typically is followed by scum resistance), I expressed my opinion that after my initial town read on Thrawn based on Archrun being scum went out the window, I wanted to re-evaluate my read on Thrawn. And the combination of 1) Thrawn denying his breadcrumb post and 2) his claiming only after the second night kill was apparent makes me think that Thrawn is attempting to sell his vigilante story. If he did actually leave a bread crumb post saying that he is vigilante, I would have been more likely to buy his claim because then he would be incriminated in case there is no SK - and thus only one night kill. At this point, it seems like a safe claim from scum's point of view - knowing that SK would never claim at this point. And as far as the quick wagon on Thrawn, it is possible that all of the players voting for Thrawn are indeed all townies and they are correct about Thrawn being scum. And I guess it is also possible that one or more scums are bussing their scum partner in Thrawn. In addition, I also find Thrawn's attempt to discourage the detective from investigating him (despite him not having the misfortune of being the miller) suspicious. I tend to think that townies want to feel the peace of mind in being confirmed by the detective. And, I was not trying to keep Thrawn alive as long as possible, per se. I just thought that there could have been a strategy that we can employ that would allow us to find out Thrawn's alignment without having to compromise town's interest. But as goodkarma suggested, since townies can get a medic save OR scums may intentionally forgo one night kill (although extended giving up of the scum kill power or SK not sending in the kill could be eliminated from the possibility, for reasons I described earlier). As such, I am withdrawing my proposal to try to wait and see Thrawn's alignment. I understand that if Thrawn does flip scum, this will make me suspicious for seemingly trying to defend Thrawn. But you should realize that scums tend not to defend each other so directly and conspicuously, in fear that such defense could lead to one being scum must be the other one being scum. And while that this may be WIFOM, it is also true that in practice such eye-catching defenses almost never occurs between two scums. Also, if you do get a chance, I advise everyone to read the XXI game (Mafia XXI Link and Scum Dr. Wiggle's Filter). I believe you will have a much easier time understanding where I was coming from, in terms of my strong suspicion of Archrun and thus my earlier town read on Thrawn. For reasons explained above: ##Vote Thrawn His Very. Next. Post. Almost as if it was decided in his QT that he was going to bus Thrawn. And this is exactly what he does. HARD. There is no natural progression from staunch defender to rabid accuser. Read his filter. Read the interplay between Thrawn and Your Harry. They clearly defend each other for a lengthy period of time and then almost like someone has flicked a switch or collectively made a decision they begin to bus one another. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On August 19 2012 12:53 YourHarry wrote: And you say that if Thrawn is vig, I am 100% scum. I don't think Thrawan is vig, but let's suppose that he is vigilante. What does scum Harry have to gain by trying to confirm Thrawn's alignment based on tonight's actions. Also, looking back on Day 1, why would scum Harry make himself so suspicious by preferring to lynch Archrun or even Shady, when scum Harry knew that Thrawn lynch would be just fine? To me, mislynch in Archrun, Shady, or Thrawn would have been just fine. On the other hand, it was because I had a strong scum read on Archrun, that I wanted to defend Thrawn. This is WIFOM. But i will explain to you what I believe the answer to be. You wanted to stop Thrawn flipping red at all costs as you to were and are still clearly linked. You jumped on the shady mislynch when it was a tie. Causing a thrawn lynch to require 2 townies to switch instead of just one. After realizing you will look really bad when shady flips green you jump on to Archrun in order to distance yourself from the Shady mislynch. When the votes tie once again you jump back on to shady in order to retain your majority. During this time you have laid the groundwork for a second mislynch of Archrun on day 2. A mislynch which you began pushing Immediately after the night post which SCREAMED scum to me. On August 17 2012 09:09 YourHarry wrote: OK. It's OK. This should provide further evidence that Archrun is scum. The history repeats itself, and it almost repeated itself today... if we could have lynched Archrun. This exact same style of posting and motivation happened in my previous game, where the scum was trying to benefit from a mislynch in me. I referenced the filter consisting of this scum player from the earlier game earlier. But here it is again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=263567¤tpage=2 In that game, we were able to switch our lynch last minute from me to this scum player. In this game we came short, but at least it strengthens my read. And this also means that Thrawn is town. Because Archrun was indeed counting on Thrawn's mislynch AND THEN Shady's mislynch. I believe both of these players to be town. Maybe you convinced the real Vig enough to cause him to use his shot. Maybe the real vig was smart enough to realize that Archruns flip would provide a great deal of information without a wasted lynch. Either way the follow up mislynch that Thrawn and Yourself seemed to cooperatively push backfired spectacularly, Thrawn claimed vig. You backed him but then realized that the situation was near hopeless which causes you both to decide in your QT to bus one another. GG SCUM. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On August 19 2012 13:11 YourHarry wrote: Strong defense of Thrawn. Because I thought Archrun was for sure scum. This made me think Thrawn was for sure town, because ARchrun wanted to lynch Thrawn and Shady. This is a flat out lie. You stated BEFORE THAT POST that you had a strong town read on Thrawn and that post CONFIRMED IT Had already been soft-defending him and claiming a town read. You lie. On August 19 2012 13:11 YourHarry wrote: Night post from Thrawn made me think he was blue role. So I quickly believed Thrawn's vig claim. Another terrible read that conveniently fits into your agenda. On August 19 2012 13:11 YourHarry wrote: Upon re-evaluation and taking into account that Archrun flipped town, I had to get rid of my initial town read on Thrawn. You missed the part where you first defend him several times and only change your mind because it was impossible to defend him. On August 19 2012 13:11 YourHarry wrote: And when Thrawn denied his breadcrumb post, made me think why did vig not leave a breadcrumb post. It followed that Thrawn had to wait until the SK kill was apparent, before he could ever claim. Also the fact that I think in the same "breadcrumb" post, Thrawn discouraged the detective to check him out. So now pretty strong scum read on Thrawn. Using a poor role claim as a weak excuse to dramatically shift (bus) your vote and position. I have tried that before didn;t work. Won't work now. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On August 19 2012 13:13 YourHarry wrote: OK. He hasn't posted much, and can I talk about my theories regarding him. I have had so much suspicion on me for being wrong about my assumptions, but I have an alignment-related theories. I guess it should be OK because I could be wrong and scums may not believe me anyway or if they believe me they may be wrong. OMFG you are doing it AGAIN?!?!? On August 19 2012 13:18 YourHarry wrote: Actually, never mind. It will just sound really stupid again and people will suspect me. And if I am right, it's not a good thing for town. I have a town read on him. I don't know if Ochrow was scum with Thrawn, he would NOT have coordinated such similar ideas with Thrawn. Maybe WIFOM, but I think it is just as likely that their similar postings were coincidence. Seriously YH? what is wrong with you. Once again hinting at outside information or making a pants on head retarded read. and not telling us. What town motive could there be in not sharing this info? What possible read could you get from ochrows non-existent filter? I am assuming you are hinting a blue read. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
First, me thinking that GK and Solar are masons. You are right, that it would be more difficult for town to make that read because town may have thought that GK and Solar are scums together. But I did, also. I explain it in my earlier explanation. And while making that assumption that GK and Solar are probably not scums together could be WIFOM, wouldn't you say it is understandable for a townie to think "Hmm, I doubt scum GK would defend scum Solar so openly because it would be too obvious that the other is scum, if one of them flips red." And if I was scum, why would I have withdrawn my suspicion on Solar - unless Solar is my scum partner. If scum Harry thought that he identified two mason brothers, would he have not kept it a secret and maybe target one of them at night... instead of withdrawing suspicion on Solar - unless Solar is my scum buddy. And if scum Harry was doing this simply to earn some town points, would he not more readily revealed his read that GK and Solar are masons - instead of waiting, despite much suspicion, until it became apparent that they were not masons? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 19 2012 14:02 DarthPunk wrote: OMFG you are doing it AGAIN?!?!? Seriously YH? what is wrong with you. Once again hinting at outside information or making a pants on head retarded read. and not telling us. What town motive could there be in not sharing this info? What possible read could you get from ochrows non-existent filter? I am assuming you are hinting a blue read.  I think about a lot about these things, OK. Maybe it's my imagination. It's just that none of us are currently a blue role, I went through different blue roles on page 1 to see which one fits who. I think it's stupid. Please, just ignore it. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On August 19 2012 14:04 YourHarry wrote: Hey Darth, I will respond to your posts by sections because you came up with so many reasons why I am scum. First, me thinking that GK and Solar are masons. You are right, that it would be more difficult for town to make that read because town may have thought that GK and Solar are scums together. But I did, also. I explain it in my earlier explanation. And while making that assumption that GK and Solar are probably not scums together could be WIFOM, wouldn't you say it is understandable for a townie to think "Hmm, I doubt scum GK would defend scum Solar so openly because it would be too obvious that the other is scum, if one of them flips red." And if I was scum, why would I have withdrawn my suspicion on Solar - unless Solar is my scum partner. If scum Harry thought that he identified two mason brothers, would he have not kept it a secret and maybe target one of them at night... instead of withdrawing suspicion on Solar - unless Solar is my scum buddy. And if scum Harry was doing this simply to earn some town points, would he not more readily revealed his read that GK and Solar are masons - instead of waiting, despite much suspicion, until it became apparent that they were not masons? Too much WIFOM. I think you already know this. But it makes the majority of this post meaningless. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10854 Posts
On August 19 2012 14:07 YourHarry wrote: I think about a lot about these things, OK. Maybe it's my imagination. It's just that none of us are currently a blue role, I went through different blue roles on page 1 to see which one fits who. I think it's stupid. Please, just ignore it. Do you honestly expect us to ignore something like that? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I also defended him when like 4 players in a row were accusing him. At the time, the implication of Archrun flipping town was not incorporated in my head. Why would I try so hard to defend my scum buddy seems to be hopeless. And it may look like I am trying to bus Thrawn because I switched my suspicion to him, it also made sense from my perspective. Upon re-evaluating, I realized that Thrawn was scummy. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 19 2012 14:09 DarthPunk wrote: Too much WIFOM. I think you already know this. But it makes the majority of this post meaningless. But if it is WIFOM, then why does it make me scummy? Shouldn't it be a null tell? If it is possible for a townie to make that connection, I could either be town or scum? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
You accuse me for defending Thrawn, because scum Harry would defend Thrawn. But even if I were to bus Thrawn in the beginning of Day 2, you could have made the case that scum Harry is simply defending his scum partner. Similarly, if it is possible for scum Harry to continue to defend Thrawn, despite others being suspicious, because busing would have made Harry suspicious - "he is simply trying to bus afterall" | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I know Thrawn and Darth scum team would be surprising, because of how hard Darth has been accusing Thrawn. But this can be explained because Thrawn flipping scum may almost confirm Darth as town. This may have been their initial plan, and Thrawn's distancing of Golbat can be classified as similar strategy. Sacrifice one scum to mislead town to believe Golbat and Darth are townies. Also, one of my initial town read on Darth based on his claiming roleblock is not justified. Scums can also claim roleblock, because there could be no roleblocker OR the there could be a town roleblocker. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 19 2012 13:30 DarthPunk wrote: Never mentioning Ochrow as a lurker despite FoS on all lurkers Your Harry has NOT ONCE called out Ochrow for lurking, Despite laying a FoS on every other lurker in the game and wanting to potentially policy lynch one of them. In this post he says it doesn't really matter which lurker is lynched, and yet he has not even mentioned Ochrow at all in his lurker group. If it doesn't matter which lurker is lynched why is Ochrow absent from all the list of lurkers that you originally FoS and why does he not mention him at all when he was clearly lurking. Harry, seeing as you and ochrow are the people I am most suspicious of, the part I quoted from darthkarma's post is what stood out to me the most, and it's also the part that you gave the weakest argument against. Basically all you said was, and I quote, "please just ignore it." | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
I also thought darth's argument about you making alignment based reads was compelling. In each of the cases you do it I hesitatingly believed your reasons, but like I pointed out with your constant one liners, flip flopping, and often flipflopping to the towns agreed safest scum read.... a history of doing such things over and over again throughout the entire game is a pretty compelling reason to vote for you. Not only does that behavior suggest that you are scum but it also suggests that if you are town then none of your reads can be taken seriously. However you did give explanations of all your flip flops, and if you look at them on their own and disconnected from each other they might be honest mistakes. I'm torn between voting for you or ochrow; if things stay as they are and ochrow does not answer my accusation then I will vote for him. But you're right behind him on the list. I really want to knwo what you have to say about never mentioning ochrow. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
What I did not want to talk about - and I realize I should not have brought it up in the first place- is what I think about Ochrow's role. I got heavy suspicion for doing something similar on Day 1, and there is no merit talking about it - except that I will probably get more suspicion for having more information than I should have - whether or not I was wrong. As to why I did not call out Ochrow: I was not even aware of it. How many times did I call lurkers out - I did not make sure that I got every single lurkers out. In fact, I thought in one of the list, I copied lurker list provided by previous poster and eliminated names who posted since then. I simply missed him for some reason... | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote: I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up. I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. First it seems redundant as town to say "me being lynched is not good for town" but to say in a more active form "me being lynched is good for scum" makes it feel like you are claiming a power role. Second, are you not discouraging the detective to check someone other than you or Archrun? | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
@Thrawn You said this was not your breadcrumb post. What was your intention with the bolded part: On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote: I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up. I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. First it seems redundant as town to say "me being lynched is not good for town" but to say in a more active form "me being lynched is good for scum" makes it feel like you are claiming a power role. Second, are you not discouraging the detective to check someone other than you or Archrun? | ||
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