Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV - Page 31
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
| ||
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 19 2012 14:58 YourHarry wrote: @Thrawn What I did not want to talk about - and I realize I should not have brought it up in the first place- is what I think about Ochrow's role. I got heavy suspicion for doing something similar on Day 1, and there is no merit talking about it - except that I will probably get more suspicion for having more information than I should have - whether or not I was wrong. As to why I did not call out Ochrow: I was not even aware of it. How many times did I call lurkers out - I did not make sure that I got every single lurkers out. In fact, I thought in one of the list, I copied lurker list provided by previous poster and eliminated names who posted since then. I simply missed him for some reason... I think that's a pretty weak excuse. The first paragraph you talk about how you don't want to talk about the things you didn't want to talk about, and the 2nd paragraph you say the reason you didn't call ochrow out is because you weren't aware that you weren't calling ochrow out? I'm not sure if I read that correctly . | ||
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 19 2012 15:05 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: @Thrawn You said this was not your breadcrumb post. What was your intention with the bolded part: First it seems redundant as town to say "me being lynched is not good for town" but to say in a more active form "me being lynched is good for scum" makes it feel like you are claiming a power role. Second, are you not discouraging the detective to check someone other than you or Archrun? The first part was to explain why I voted for shady. Look at that bolded part in context with the rest of the sentence and it makes sense. The second part was based on the true statement that archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. It isn't good for town to limit investigations to only two people, and because I accidentally mislynched a green player (shady) I realized that I was being too focused on my reads and not bothering to give a hard enough look at other players. | ||
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
"Ochrow was just temp banned for 2 days by Plexa. That account was created on 2011-11-23 04:05:54 and had 37 posts. Reason: Actually make that a ban since I warned you earlier in the thread." source What happens now? | ||
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
| ||
DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On August 19 2012 15:28 thrawn2112 wrote: please, not like this He may just be replaced, although that expression and that you were the one who noticed makes me think he went missing from your QT.... | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On August 19 2012 15:26 thrawn2112 wrote: I was looking through ochrow's prifile to see if I could verify his claim of going to a sc2 lan and I found this: "Ochrow was just temp banned for 2 days by Plexa. That account was created on 2011-11-23 04:05:54 and had 37 posts. Reason: Actually make that a ban since I warned you earlier in the thread." source What happens now? Looking into this. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 19 2012 13:24 YourHarry wrote: GK, do you still think Ochrow is scum with Thrawn and me? Yes, I still think it's entirely possible. I will not, however, say it's 100% certain as I implied in my original case post. Especially in your case, if Ochrow or Thrawn flip scum, my shared QT suspicions do not directly apply to you so I would say in that case you would be my third scum read. The biggest issue I have with your posting behavior right now is that you seem to make a vote or read with little explanation, and then explain away your actions later. It's bad play + Show Spoiler + (ironically, as both town and scum) You explain your stance on Thrawn, and why you feel he's town. Your case for Thrawn being town is weak, but at least you do explain it... The problem with drawing a "connection theory" between you, Thrawn, and Orchrow is that although it fits neatly, none of you have flipped. My original case right now is based on a lot of assumptions. This is why I've focused on further evidence of scummy behavior as a basis for my vote in day 2 with my original case as a starting point on who to pressure. You claim you have a town read on Ochrow. Unfortunately, at this point, that's not enough. You need to explain exactly why you think this. You seem to take pride in trusting your gut, but unfortunately we can't read your gut. It's your responsibility to translate what your gut tells you into some kind of logic you can put on paper. Otherwise, we have no idea where you're coming from. And if you're town, that's an easy way to get mislynched. Regarding Darthpunk's argument about you not pursuing Ochrow, it's true Ochrow has become quite the lurker but at the time there were far guiltier lurkers so I can understand how he didn't make your list. I do find it a little suspicious that you have completely disregarded him until being asked for your read, though. TL;DR: I'm going to need to reassess my reads on you tomorrow, but yes. Ochrow, Thrawn, and YourHarry are still on my suspects list. If I were to prioritize them right now it would go: 1) Ochrow 2) YourHarry 3) Thrawn If I find something when I reread filters tomorrow though, this could change. @Everyone who hasn't voted: You are acting against town's best interests by voting late. Your scum reads are valuable. By voting too late they can't be considered by the rest of us. Consider this, as I will be keeping a careful eye as to who is last-minute sheeping their votes. Now is the time for us to start consolidating our votes, and determining who of the accused would be the best lynch candidate. I will definitely be back before the voting deadline to reassess my reads, but for now I'm keeping my vote where it is. If Ochrow is to be modkilled, I will obviously change my vote. But even if he is to be replaced, I still feel I have a strong scum read on him. I know it's complete WIFOM, but if you look at the nonsense he posted to get temp-banned, he was definitely asking for it. Perhaps this was (as scum) out of disinterest in continuing this game as he felt he had no chance of winning. | ||
DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On August 19 2012 14:30 YourHarry wrote: You dismiss almost everything I say as WIFOM, but your case also includes the similar WIFOM. You accuse me for defending Thrawn, because scum Harry would defend Thrawn. But even if I were to bus Thrawn in the beginning of Day 2, you could have made the case that scum Harry is simply defending his scum partner. Similarly, if it is possible for scum Harry to continue to defend Thrawn, despite others being suspicious, because busing would have made Harry suspicious - "he is simply trying to bus afterall" No. You see, I have made a strong and lengthy case on you that has been growing since day 1. My case on you does not involve WIFOM but your defense (including this post) does. The fact that you are restorting to admitting you look bad and then saying 'why if I were scum would I look bad' is so suspicious it makes my eyes bleed. If not for that vigi hit you wouldn't look too bad. You would be sitting pretty, pushing a second mislynch painting Thrawn and Yourself as near confirmed town. On August 19 2012 14:30 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: But even if I were to bus Thrawn in the beginning of Day 2, you could have made the case that scum Harry is simply busing his scum partner. so you are admitting you bussed thrawn? Now I guess I should address your harry's case against me. On August 19 2012 14:39 YourHarry wrote: OK. I need to re-evaluate. Possibility of Darth, Thrawn, Golbat scum team is what I am currently thinking. Darth says he is so sure that Thrawn and I are scums together, as he outlined in the case, but he suddenly wants to vote me rather than Thrawn. Thrawn has an unchallanged vigi claim to back him. you have squat. I have already stated that this introduces about 10% doubt in my mind and combined with actually attempting to contribute is enough for me to hold off on him for now. On August 19 2012 14:39 YourHarry wrote: I know Thrawn and Darth scum team would be surprising, because of how hard Darth has been accusing Thrawn. But this can be explained because Thrawn flipping scum may almost confirm Darth as town. This may have been their initial plan, and Thrawn's distancing of Golbat can be classified as similar strategy. Sacrifice one scum to mislead town to believe Golbat and Darth are townies. So my plan was to bus Thrawn and then to back away from him? This shit is weak dude. Sort of defeats the purpose of a bus. On August 19 2012 14:39 YourHarry wrote: Also, one of my initial town read on Darth based on his claiming roleblock is not justified. Scums can also claim roleblock, because there could be no roleblocker OR the there could be a town roleblocker. I got role blocked. I claimed. reading anything more into that than it is is fallacious. | ||
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 19 2012 18:25 DarthPunk wrote: He may just be replaced, although that expression and that you were the one who noticed makes me think he went missing from your QT.... On August 19 2012 15:02 thrawn2112 wrote: we need to hear more from solar, ochrow, jhuyt, and gobalt. gobalt made a couple recent posts, solar has made one recent post (if you can call it that) but jhuyt and ochrow have been especially absent. ochrow claimed he was at a lan and fine i'll accept that but he's really going to need to make up for it during this last half of D2 On August 19 2012 15:26 thrawn2112 wrote: I was looking through ochrow's prifile to see if I could verify his claim of going to a sc2 lan and I found this: "Ochrow was just temp banned for 2 days by Plexa. That account was created on 2011-11-23 04:05:54 and had 37 posts. Reason: Actually make that a ban since I warned you earlier in the thread." source What happens now? I was investigating his claim that he was unable to post because he went to a lan. And that expression would come from both town thrawn and scum thrawn, you're just reading it as coming from a scum thrawn because I think you're already of the mindset to not believe anything I have to say. | ||
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
My vote is either going to ochrow or yourharry. I had already said that I would vote for ochrow if he doesn't respond to my case against him or if his response is worse than yourharry's response (which was pretty weak.) Now that ochio is banned I'm not sure how to proceed but I guess that means if ochrow isn't an option then I will vote for yourharry. Waiting on mod decision atm | ||
DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On August 19 2012 21:35 thrawn2112 wrote: I was investigating his claim that he was unable to post because he went to a lan. And that expression would come from both town thrawn and scum thrawn, you're just reading it as coming from a scum thrawn because I think you're already of the mindset to not believe anything I have to say. I am not saying anything about the expression. I was commenting based on the fact that if my scum partner went AWOL last game I would likely be the one to notice first. Not really anything. | ||
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
If he is modkilled, my vote will probably go to yourharry I wanna restate this: On August 19 2012 15:02 thrawn2112 wrote: we need to hear more from solar, ochrow, jhuyt, and gobalt. gobalt made a couple recent posts, solar has made one recent post (if you can call it that) but jhuyt and ochrow have been especially absent. ochrow claimed he was at a lan and fine i'll accept that but he's really going to need to make up for it during this last half of D2 The only reason why I am not confident in my vote is because we have heard so very little from these players. It's pretty worrying to me that jhuyt, solar, and gobalt have been lurking for pretty much all of day 2. (ochrow as well but he was banned) | ||
DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
On August 19 2012 21:57 thrawn2112 wrote: ##Vote Ochrow If he is modkilled, my vote will probably go to yourharry I wanna restate this: The only reason why I am not confident in my vote is because we have heard so very little from these players. It's pretty worrying to me that jhuyt, solar, and gobalt have been lurking for pretty much all of day 2. (ochrow as well but he was banned) Yeha I agree 100 percent with this sentiment. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
| ||
DarthPunk
Australia10847 Posts
| ||
ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
I haven't done this replacement thing before so I'll be trying to get the hang of it quickly. From what I can see in the thread (I have been reading but not analyzing since the game began) there was a great amount of suspicion regarding my predecessor that I might need to alleviate. I'll be working on my first analysis/case post for a while, but in the mean time please try to keep in mind that the inactivity of Ochrow (and the previously mentioned TL temp ban) was not alignment indicative. I have a couple of filters I am currently interested in. Posting now just so you know I'm here. Some quick notes before I move forward: >Newbie 21 I was veteran, died to D1 lynch because I wasn't there to defend/claim >Newbie 22 I was vanilla, died to NK night 3 or 4 >Normal Mini hosted by GMarshal starts tomorrow and I've been signed up for that for a while. >Now I am here as a replacement in 24. EBHTDP: Hello Darth! | ||
thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On August 19 2012 22:18 DarthPunk wrote: Yeha I agree 100 percent with this sentiment. I'm gonna look at jhuyt's filter... his last post was over 24 hours ago and he has only made 9 posts this game. My vote is still on ochrow (or obvious) pending what obvious has to say. | ||
ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On August 19 2012 07:01 thrawn2112 wrote: Z-boson (or anyone else) could you explain to me in greater detail what ochrow's lie was? You said it was in his aug 17 5:54 post. I haven't seen anything that qualifies as a lie but if there is a lie, I'd like to know because I think if someone is caught in a lie they should be lynched. I'm going to go through that post and bold anything that seems weird. Ochrow's post + Show Spoiler + On August 17 2012 05:54 Ochrow wrote: On Archrun: Well for starters I am going to go ahead and ##Unvote. For while I'm still suspicious of Archrun for reasons very similar to those posted above, he was very lurky at a time that I didn't feel like I had any good scum reads (yes shady that means I didn't agree with your witch hunts but that doesn't make me scum. . . ) and once he finally stopped lurking I didn't feel his post carried much weight and so I felt that it was just a filler post pointing out some random person to make him seem less suspicious, I don't feel I have enough to vote him at the moment. Now before people start saying that I am flip flopping and that is scum behavior or whatever that argument is I would just like to point out my reasoning for voting Arch because it is somewhat separate from my reasoning for suspecting him. The reason I went and changed my FoS to a Vote was because I really had no idea how much time we had left, I unfortunately have no perception of the passage of time so I thought that the game had already been going on for long enough that the end might come while I was asleep which it almost did as I only just woke up. And so I wanted to make sure I voted as required. On shady: At the moment I can't be sure if Shady is scum or just crazy aggressive townie though at the moment I am leaning slightly towards townie for the same reasoning I used earlier in the game: However I do feel that his aggressiveness has progressed to a point where it is almost damaging. The case that he laid down on Thrawn and I was not much different from his original argument against Solar, it was based off of little evidence (oh they both posted at the same time and the second guy read the first ones post and had insider information because he restated stuff that Ochrow had said in a PUBLIC forum) and Shady attacked it with a witch hunt mentality. It seems that Shady is like a shark waiting to smell blood and as soon as he does he just attacks immediately, at least that is the way it seems to me. But nonetheless I still don't feel that this is necessarily scum play, just bad play, but if we don't find any really solid scum (I am not currently sold on any of the reads as I will explain below) I can see him as a potentially good lynch. On Thrawn: I really can't get a read on Thrawn. To be honest when I first read Shady's post I almost instantly began to feel that Thrawn was scum but after reading his defense I do not think that he is. But I will say that I find him a bit too sheepish. It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded, so I feel that this is something we need to look out for because it does feel somewhat scummy. On the case against Thrawn and I: I feel like once again Shady is reading too much into things. As far as the combined case claiming that we are both scum and are working together goes it is based almost entirely off of the timing of our post and the fact that Thrawn copied what I said. However, saying that we are obviously working together makes no sense when it is based purely off of the fact that the second person, in this case Thrawn, merely rewords a public post that I made. I can understand why you would be a bit suspicious, but by your logic one scum could just go around copying and rewording the posts of every person in the game and would therefore have to be in secret contact with every single one of them. The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them. As for my fair and balanced posts or however it was that Shady described them, I simply have not been able to divine that much from what most people are saying, though I will admit to being a timid poster. But at the moment I don't feel I have solid reads on pretty much anyone and so the result of that is I try not to alienate people, though I understand why Shady would be suspicious of that because his goal seems to be to piss off everybody and alienate them all. On YourHarry: As far as the stuff from early on goes I believe his explanation in that he had a mason misread and I think that was it, and as I said before while he was posting very short messages he really didn't appear to have much to say outside of those short messages, but going by his posting history it looks like as soon as he started to get actual reads he began to post them. I feel that his swingyness is suspicious and that his posts haven't been great, particularly the case against GK, but I don't really get a scum read from him. On JHuyt: At the moment he and Golbat are on the top of the Lurker List but I don't have much more than that. However, I don't feel that Archrun's case against him has any merit in light of what Solar has said about his history, and I felt the same way before anyways. On Golbat: I can't really get much of a read because he does only have two posts and even in those two posts he doesn't really do much. He has a one line accusation of thrawn and a few really short reads on people that have been pointed out as big suspects but it is so little that I can't really pull much from it but I don't think he is scum but if he only does two posts a day then I'm tempted to lynch just to narrow things down. So just to wrap it up my top choices for lynches would be Arch, Golbat, and Shady in that order. But I do not feel strongly about the Shady lynch at all, I just think that if he keeps up his witch hunt mentality it could be damaging. So primarily I feel we should lynch Arch or Golbat, Arch for my earlier reasoning and pretty much the same stuff that Stutters said and Golbat for being a lurker. The first bold edit is an odd thing to say as it sounds like he is already trying to preempt counter arguments, but I think a town player could have done it. The only weird thing about it is its close proximity to the 2nd bold edit, which I honestly have no idea what to make of on it's own. But seeing as how they are two strange comments close to each other and regarding the same topic, it makes me a little suspicious that they are excuses (scum statements) rather than reasons (town statements.) The third bold edit when he's talking about me: "It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded." This is just not true. Either ochrow is misrepresenting me, or he didn't read the thread. He made this statement after I voted for shady, and that was anything but a bandwagon vote. In fact a lot of people have described it as an OMGUS vote. I can't see how anyone could say I've been bandwagoning if they've read my reasons for voting. On the next bold edit: ("The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them.") The context for this was defending the accusation that he and I were sharing a qt. He says that "Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post." To me this seems like a bad argument and possibly him trying to deflect everyone onto my case. To say "the fact of the matter" is a very strongly and clearly worded statement that expresses that whatever claim comes next is undeniable truth. Why would ochrow's defense of the "thrawn/ochrow share a qt" claim be him saying that the only possible explanation is that I piggybacked onto his claim? This strikes me as a suspicious defense. I was reading YH's filter and then I followed a thought and ended up at this quoted post that pretty much summarized some general concerns with Ochraw. Thrawn has also stated that he will vote for me depending upon what I say. So I want to go back to this for a moment and try to see what Thrawn is seeing. The first part of the post written by Ochrow does seem a CYA move, that much I can agree on. I don't see it as alignment indicative but I agree that when taken in context with other clues it could point towards a scum alignment. I know in my past game my inactivity due to RL concerns was interpreted as scummy and I had to do a lot of talking to defend myself from being high up on the lynch list. Ochrow's post seems to preempt that, which of course is sort of frowned upon in this game but we are people and people have stuff to do. The general feeling I get from this entire course of argument is that both Ochrow and Thrawn were trying to distance themselves from each other. Knowing my own alignment and Thawn's vig claim leads me to the following conclusion regarding the face off with Ochraw: Two misguided townies staring each other down is my best assessment of this situation at the moment. The coincidental post timing was just that: a coincidence. | ||
ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [the most ridiculous thing ever] + On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote: Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason ![]() ##Vote: thrawn2112 And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow ##FoS: YourHarry I'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. I'm just trying to wrap my head around this post, so bear with me. GK is convinced that Thrawn and Ochrow (now me) are of the same alignment. If we're not mason buddies, then we're scum together, and one of those scums is a vigilante? Is anyone else seeing how this is the most ridiculous claim ever? If we are backing up to question ourselves: "Is Thrawn actually a vigilante?" then I have something to say regarding that. It's a lot easier to prove you're a vigilante if you make a believable breadcrumb that when revealed shows you haven't lied, but we're in a pickle as far as that's concerned because all we seem to have is a weak breadcrumb and Thrawn's word that he is a vig and spent his one shot last night. On top of that, GK is CERTAIN of my alignment as scum. It seems that he knows more about me than I do, and I suggest everyone take a good hard look at GK today and see if you can agree that he's being pretty scummy here. ##VOTE: goodkarma | ||
| ||