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I guess, I need to update my comment. It seems that Shady suspects Thrawn and Golbat have weird interactions here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=15#300
Then also suspects Thrawn and Ochrow are working together in his next post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=16#303
He further explains later, saying that Thrawn used Ochrow's reason to suspect Arch. Citing someone else's case to suspect a scummy player is NOT a scum tell. It is a reasonable and resopnsible thing to do, in fact. But it is indeed suspicious that Thrawn denies this claim. Thrawn, do you standby the fact that your post was NOT affected by Ochrow's?
And Shady's further suspicion depends on the fact that Thrawn and Ochrow share similar reads on some of the players. Now, how someone would think that this is an indication that those two are working together seems just unreasonable. In fact, mathematically all townies must share similar reads on some subset group of players all the time.
So far, it feels like Shady is over-reaching to build some cases.
BTW, has Golbat posted yet?
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I agree with mkfuba that Shady's tunneling on thrawn is suspicious, especially because I am satisfied with thrawn's explanation. Again, I fail to find thrawn sharing similar reads with Ochrow to be an indication that they are working together.
Still, I don't have a formal case against Shady. While his behavior sounds scummy and his theories sound like they originated from him imagination, this is not necessarily a scum tell. And to be honest, I did not have time to read all the cases carefully so I am not sure.
If I had to choose between Shady and thrawn though, I will choose Shady.
##Unvote
##Vote Shady
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I have to leave. I am already late, but at this point, I don't see any clear scum. I would much rather lynch a lurker. I think the best lurker lynch candidate is Golbat. Stutters and Jyhut don't have many posts, but at least they are here sometimes.
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Having a lurker around that always has a potential to be mod-killed is dangerous. If golbat does not show up before deadline, I move to switch our votes to him.
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@Thrawn While there probably is such thing as lynching the best lurker, they are basically all lurkers. I did read your explanation on your choosing Arch, but it doesn't seem substantial to me. Having little content in your post is a scum-tell but when someone is lurking, I think it makes a little difference. All of them have minimal contents in their post, so I disagree with your analysis of Arch being the best lurker.
I think most important thing is how promising is it that these lurkers will become active posters. I see Arch beginning to contribute, now that there are more posts to go on. So I think Arch could be more active from now on, which will give us posts to base our reads on.
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BTW, I still think GK is scummy.
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Whether or not it's a plurality, what is the point of casting a vote on someone who is not going to get majority of the votes?
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For example, if it seems apparent that player A and player B already have garnered most of the votes, and I think player C is the best lynch candidate. It does not seem likely that player C is not going to be lynched today. Between player A and player B, I strongly think player B is town. Player A seems somewhat scummy. So I vote for player A, who I think has a higher chance of being scum than player B.
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Thrawn, it is called policy lynch for a reason. I don't particularly find Golbat scummy, but if someone doesn't post he should be lynched. That's policy. This will encourage more participation in subsequent days.
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I will be back before deadline. Count on it.
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On August 17 2012 07:26 Archrun wrote:
Currently, I feel that if Shady is lynched and is town then we should lynch Thrawn, Likewise, if Thrawn is lynch then we should lynch Shady. If one of them is scum then the other is town. I doubt any busing is occurring because if they were on a team they could of just focus me rather than fight among each other. With that I am going to keep my vote but if Thrawn flips townie Shady is becomes my number one suspect.
Honestly I did not have time to read everything, but this seems alarmingly scummy to me. I had an experience in one of my earlier games where scum was basically trying to benefit from mislynch.
##Unvote
##Vote Archrun
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My strong town read on Thrawn is confirmed by Archrun's recent post stating that exactly Thrawn or Shady are scum. I don't know how he arrived at this conclusion. While it is unlikely that they are bussing each other as scums, how to exclude the possibility that they are both towns?
I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town.
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EDBWOP: "recent post stating that exactly one of Thrawn or Shady are scum..."
Guys this is NOT a majority lynch. Whoever gets the most votes will be lynched.
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Darth, there is such thing as a town read. You may disagree on what reads we have etc, but whatever. We can talk about that later. For now I would like to get your attention to Archrun.
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Archrun said:
Currently, I feel that if Shady is lynched and is town then we should lynch Thrawn, Likewise, if Thrawn is lynch then we should lynch Shady. If one of them is scum then the other is town. I doubt any busing is occurring because if they were on a team they could of just focus me rather than fight among each other. With that I am going to keep my vote but if Thrawn flips townie Shady is becomes my number one suspect.
You guys don't think Archrun is trying to benefit from the mislynch. If Thrawn flips town, he is basically trying to secure the Shady lynch. You may argue that town Archrun actually believes that exactly one of Trhawn or Shady is scum, but I have hard time accepting this because he leaves out one possibility that they are both town.
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Who's set to be lynched right now? Thrawn or Shady?
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I have my vote on Shady, I think, so you can switch. We need to have one more on Arch!
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OK. It's OK. This should provide further evidence that Archrun is scum.
The history repeats itself, and it almost repeated itself today... if we could have lynched Archrun. This exact same style of posting and motivation happened in my previous game, where the scum was trying to benefit from a mislynch in me. I referenced the filter consisting of this scum player from the earlier game earlier. But here it is again:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=263567¤tpage=2
In that game, we were able to switch our lynch last minute from me to this scum player. In this game we came short, but at least it strengthens my read.
And this also means that Thrawn is town. Because Archrun was indeed counting on Thrawn's mislynch AND THEN Shady's mislynch. I believe both of these players to be town.
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EPT
