Newbie Mini Mafia XXIII

On August 06 2012 09:13 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Golbat: Welcome!

@ Dandel Ion: I disagree to a certain extent - not all scum will suddenly become active and incriminate themselves to bandwagon a player. Many scum in newbie games are comortable staying out of the thread and never being active. I do not believe that the "sudden activity read" it is an excuse to not be concerned with "scum lurkers" early in the game, and we should smoke-'em out as early as possible.



I think you over-estimate the power of mafia. Mafia only have 3 votes as opposed to town's 9 votes. Furthermore, if Mafia violently forces a bandwagon, it reveals their hand and makes them easy lynches in subsequent days.

On August 06 2012 10:12 Shady Sands wrote:


I was reading through the OP and host said that we would know which roles are in the game, but not the number of roles. I'm not sure how Hapahauli knows there are only 3 scum in the game.

Also, why is Promethelax so quiet? In the last game I played him, he racked up 10 posts in the first six hours of the game.

On August 06 2012 10:54 iamperfection wrote:
Sup everybody

I have come around in my thinking from previous games and agree that lynching lurkers is a good policy to have. When the town is inactive or loses its active players it is very easy for the scum to start leading the town. In my first game my scum buddies were able to dominate the conversation. In my last game that son of a bitch hapa cost me my perfection and i have been in mourning ever since.

Its redemption time



Alright lets not go accusing people of lurking in the first 2 or so hours into the game. We have 48 hours and while i want to see activity its important to remember this is forum mafia there will be times people can be active and not active.


You can easily go back and see the results of that game. takes 2 seconds and now people are going to start questioning your effort
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315


Speaking of previous games i would like to know how yourharry is going to aproach this game. If we are going to get your logic that makes no sense where your "sure" sombody is town or mafia i say we lynch you know before your logic festers and contaminates the town. One of the reason i lynched calgar in my previous game is because he actually used your logic in his own defense. Unforgivable in my view.

Your thoughts?

On August 06 2012 10:28 Golbat wrote:


Promethelax might be trying to be quieter than last game, because those 10 posts in six hours were a big part of getting him lynched, were they not?

I should probably be doing the same, but posting is just so much DAMN FUN.

On August 06 2012 11:31 Lvdr wrote:



Throw out my first statement, it was clearly misinformed and not useful.

As I am somewhat of an unknown quantity let me explain that if my accusations seem random, its because they pretty much are (at this point). It seems that d1 is the time to try to get people on record so that you can have a body of evidence to work off of in the future.

Overeager townie apologizes.

On August 07 2012 02:30 Lvdr wrote:
Synyster seems to fit the 'post just enough' mafia profile. His defenses have involved a lot of passive accusing against his attackers.

I believe that not lynching players simply because they are active is a good way to go about things. You could be scum using that as an excuse to cover up. While I do see the benefit in lynching a lurker versus an active player, I do not believe this should be the sole reasoning on how we lynch someone.

On August 07 2012 01:21 Synystyr wrote:
@Hapa

Don't be so quick to vote me after one post I was merely implying that activity is not indicative of alignment and shouldn't be taken into account in a case, yet.

@Dandel

My read on Golbat is that he's neutral leaning scum. Scum like to cause discord amongst the town, and there's really no need for attacks on reading comprehension without a good reason. He's just trying to stir shit up. He wants to lynch lurkers as well, which may be the start of a defense to as why he shouldn't be lynched d1.

On August 07 2012 01:37 Synystyr wrote:
I'm just being cautious. Golbat hasn't been too productive as far as I can tell, which isn't a town move, so I'm leaning scum. It's still early so I'm not pushing for anything yet though.

On August 07 2012 03:43 Synystyr wrote:


On the contrary, I feel quite safe going with my instinct that you are a townie. You ask all the right questions and cast good suspicion over everyone. I really do mean it when I say I'm just being cautious. You never know what could happen.

On August 07 2012 08:41 Synystyr wrote:
Let me assure you guys that I am indeed town! I apologize for the number of "fluff" posts that you guys say I am making. There is simply not much to go off this early in the game. I would move for a lurker policy lynch at this point in the game over any other active players unless they make me suspicious.

Golbat says he has some cases to post, so I'd like to hear what he has to say.

On August 07 2012 11:51 Lvdr wrote:
I will still observe them (just like everyone) but Synyster and iamperfection are the ones I am confident enough to FOS.

Golbat is average suspicion, and YH is inscrutable.

Right now (and I reserve the right to change my mind when more posts are made) I think iamperfection would give us more information. If he flips red, YH looks much less suspicious. Hard to believe he would bus YH that hard D1.

Synyster is still a good lynch because of the cases brought so far. Unfortunately, because he has said basically nothing, the connections would be less obvious. Voting trends are always useful though.

On August 08 2012 02:00 Hapahauli wrote:
Why I believe Promethelax is a better lynch than Synyster and iamperfection

Synystyr - while he has been suspicious, the suspicion on him so far has been too easy. It's been coming together without any resistance from scum or Synystyr himself. I doubt mafia would sit back and watch one of their own burn with so little resistance. WIFOM, yes, but that's my feeling.

iamperfection - His play has been suspicious, but my confirmation bias may have gotten the best of me when I questioned him. I just can't see mafia deciding to policy-lynch YourHarry from day 1. It seems absurd in my eyes, and I want to see more from iamperfection before I make a decision.

On August 08 2012 02:37 Hapahauli wrote:
@mkfuba - you scumslipped harrrrrrd here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=15#300

@ Shady - if Synyster didn't flip red, you would've looked awful from the case you pushed

@ YourHarry - you just blew my mind lol

On August 10 2012 05:28 Dandel Ion wrote:

Just to clarify this shit, "basic advice to a newb" is the point of this. It's called "Newbie Mafia", you know? I'd like for you to point out the exact syllable that's "scummy" about it.
Yeah, I'm lurking so far, I know I know. But so are goodkarma and Axero, Sideni (again) and Shady Sands (not even a single post since the start)
I'd like to know the reason why I'm so far above them, because I'm pretty sure you don't have one.

Between YourHarry being YourHarry, mkfuba attacking YourHarry for being YourHarry, Lvdr being lvdr, mkfuba attacking lvdr for being lvdr, and the new people doing blanket statements about policy, I was yet unable to find anything I felt I could post on. That's my reason.

On August 10 2012 05:37 iamperfection wrote:
Do you think we should still policy lynch yourharry?

On August 10 2012 05:54 Lvdr wrote:
I made that statement because YH's goal would go along these lines: It's a blind town read that could turn into a WIFOM town circle based on hapa's later reaction -- given that YH is town.

Otherwise Yh could be mafia trying to gain town cred by calling someone town (who he knows is town).
If both are mafia it would be quite risky because one red flip casts suspicion on the other in that case.

However they would still be providing some cover to each other.

As i said the point is moot because it was retracted and its impossible to make a WIFOM read on YH if he didn't know his role at the time.

On August 10 2012 05:58 Promethelax wrote:


Right, and we're all newbs so why give basci advice that you know when he surely knows it too? What was scummy was that you chose to say something so neutral after being gone for 24 hours. You left, came back and thought to yourself 'what would improve this thread? Ahh, basic advice'

You are scummier than them because SS hadn't posted, I don't know anything about Axero, GK had said somethings which had opinions in them (though not as many as I would like) and Sideni is the same as he was before as town. You are the one who was worth pointing out.

Okay seriously? You mentioned a quarter of the players in this game doing something which could be discussed and said you had nothing to discuss. What the fuck?

SS and Dandel: don't give me this shit. Discuss the game and the players, we essentially got a free meta test day with D1.0 so we are starting from a better position than we were in on the first day one. I, for one, see more from this day than the one before it.

Hapa: I'm glad you are here so that I'll have someone to talk to. Although given that you and I are both known for active scum play I won't be able to get reads out of your activity I look forward to getting reads from your play. What is your opinion of Dandel?

Imperfection: unless you are scum you are doing this wrong. I like you a lot but this play isn't good, if you wanted me to make a case well good I did, how did your opinion change? You wanted something from lvdr, YH, Mkfuba and half the other players in this game too. But you aren't changing your opinion after they post more. Why so free with your FoS? And why so restrained in taking it back? I'm all for a wide net but you need to use it right.

On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:


So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking?



Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far.

On August 10 2012 12:09 Lvdr wrote:
Time for some lurker rankings!

3. Shady Sands: Shady has taken umbrage with a (admittedly) confusing clarification I made and accused axero of lurking. He hasn't said anything else, but he's taken a position.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=25#499

2. Axero: Axero has appeared long enough to FOS Hapa for (rightfully) calling him a lurker. OMGUS at its finest.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=27#535

1. goodkarma: goodkarma has given us gems like:
and


... and followed it up with some quality lurkage. I declare goodkarma our lurker champion for now.

On August 10 2012 12:40 Lvdr wrote:
@shady we have like 19 hours left. Still way too early to have a vote decided. That said, as lurker champion good karma would get my vote Right now.

On August 10 2012 08:47 Dandel Ion wrote:

Bolded part and your analogy that doesn't go anywhere looks pretty scummy to me. There's basically no goal, direction or reason behind this, but you still feel the need to share it with us. You apologize for the confusion, but good town play, in my book, is trying to AVIOD confusion. Confusion, gray shades and everything inbetween just give scum openings for misinterpretations.

Please, in the bolded part you clearly showed that you have the theoretical ability to think your posts through, the only thing left is to actually do it.

On August 10 2012 12:55 Hapahauli wrote:


I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it.

On August 10 2012 13:05 Hapahauli wrote:
Admittedly I'm a bit concerned that he could be Synystyr 2.0. If I don't see Axero' response by tomorrow morning however, he is my strongest scumread at the moment, and will be getting my vote.

Since you're around, what do you think about GoodKarma's lurkiness? You were in XXII, and I'm curious what you think of it based off of GK's meta?

On August 10 2012 14:10 Hapahauli wrote:
You just got sniiiiiped Shady xD

What do you think about my case on Axero?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=29#565

On August 11 2012 06:57 Hapahauli wrote:


I completely agree with you. Something's really really wrong here.

Axero is suspicious for the reasons I've mentioned previously, but even his "ragequit" from the thread for the night seemed townie-ish.

I'm a bit suspicious of GoodKarma - he's lurked, yet popped into the thread twice to tunnel suspicion on players (Sideni and Axero) all game. He hasn't contributed much, and I wouldn't mind getting a vote on GK going.

On August 11 2012 07:36 Hapahauli wrote:
LET's ALL VOTESWITCH TO GOODKARMA

Sideni and Lvdr are BAAAD townies! GoodKarma has not stuck his neck out, has tunneled suspicion on Axero and Sideni (easy targets), he hasn't made an original case or provided original analysis, and his play has been waaaaay too clean so far - Day 1 has been INSANE, there's no way people should be this clean!

For lurkiness reasons and because I think Sideni is Bad-Town. Also No-lynch seems like it would be a disaster.

On August 11 2012 07:43 Lvdr wrote:
3 Cheers for Sideni being useful.

At this point I think we shouldn't shift off of GK. I find Shady and Kronen coming in so late quite suspicious though. Whatever cases they make, it will be almost impossible to really evaluate them before the time limit.

On August 11 2012 07:46 Dandel Ion wrote:

There are no masons in this game.

On August 11 2012 08:34 Lvdr wrote:
I'm on my phone, so I cannot start a real case, but shady will be my first target tomorrow. His vote looks pretty suspicious right now.

On August 11 2012 11:50 Hapahauli wrote:
...So that leaves Promethelax as my top scumread at the moment.

I find this post incredibly scummy:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=32#624

He nitpicks and criticizes a lot of people, followed by a vote on Sideni. Near the lynch deadline, Promethelax picks a mini-fight with Dandel Ion when Dandel Ion BACKS OFF SIDENI, and severely tunnels Sideni until he leaves for work.

#1 scumread for sure here.

On August 10 2012 06:11 Promethelax wrote:


fair enough, I disagree with you that there is nothing to read in his nothing posts but I see your point of view. Imperfection is a weird one for me since I played scum with him and his play feels scummy but not like his scum play in XIX obviously we're all new and our meta is still somewhat fluid. I have him in my scum column right now but there are people who have posted nothing or next to nothing who seem as scummy and I'd prefer to live the loud scum alive than the quiet one, people who talk a lot will talk themselves into a corner.

Shady: How did Axero make it onto your list? You gave reasons for lvdr being suspicious but not Axero. I don't like a name just being thrown in there without a case, it is good play for scum and bad for town. Give me and the rest of town an explanation for throwing his name in there, right now with just his name and no reasoning you are on my scummy list.

I guess I have to remove my FoS on Harry, he is just Harry. I'll keep my eye on him but I think that might just be my policy from now on: watch Harry.

On August 11 2012 12:17 Hapahauli wrote:
@ ShadySands - any other players stick out to you other than promethelax? I'd like to hear your thoughts on the other 3 non-confirmed players (mkfuba, YourHarry, Kronen)

On August 11 2012 07:44 Kronen wrote:


Quick rebuttal. I didn't say I thought it was good. I did however change my approach to looking at the proceeding because of it. So much of the early interchange was based off of mkfuba's case. It was the only piece of substance written at that time. His choice of looking at how people reacted or rebutted it is interesting. That being said he grasped too much at straws and he suppositions were unfounded. In the future however I'm looking at the foundation of what he did there.

What I fear from the lynching happening tonight is that we won't learn anything from it. GK will have my vote for tonight for two reasons 1) I have no concrete evidence upon which to draw correlations from other people's lynching, 2)he's been the most inactive yet trolly... but I fear a vote for him will turn over less than votes for others.

##vote GoodKarma

On August 11 2012 13:26 YourHarry wrote:
Yes, Hapa, I will give you what you want. Soon enough. Let me finish reading first.

I clearly outlined why I thought Lvdr and Axero was town. Lvdr in particular felt like he was being coached. Just because you and many others found them suspicious, does not mean that town Harry would have found them suspicious as well.

One thing I found suspicious about Promothelax was that he indiscreetly asked the mod what the rules were on encryption. It was almost as if he wanted to show the townies that he was a power role and he wanted to leave bread crumbs. Realistically, no power role would do that in fear that he will be targeted by the scums. This is especially the case because such alignment-sensitive questions could be asked via PM.

On August 11 2012 13:51 YourHarry wrote:
EDBWOP:


But he ends the paragraph with the phrase (underlined for emphasis) that implies that he really believes that GK is a scum and that he fears that GK will not gather enough votes.

On August 11 2012 14:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ YourHarry and Shadysands - so if I can summarize both of your viewpoints, both of you are leaning to the Promo/Kronen scumteam?

On August 12 2012 05:18 mkfuba07 wrote:
Right now I would still say Shady. In addition to my previous post here + Show Spoiler +, I have more thoughts concerning his actions around the time of the vote.He doesn't accept Hapa's reasoning here, when I see no flaws with it from a pro-town standpoint. Only after Kronen clinches the vote for GK does Shady actually confirm his vote on Lvdr. He uses Lvdr's "suspicious" decision as reasoning, when I don't see it as suspicious at all. At this point, his vote will not sway the vote either way, so I don't see it as particularly townish to stubbornly stick with his original vote. He also earns some towncred along the way for not bandwagoning. He even included this post that establishes his willingness to go either way if given a reason:

But when his vote no longer impacts the lynch, he doesn't change his vote despite valid reasons being presented.

On August 12 2012 09:10 Hapahauli wrote:
Well here's the deal - killing Kronen was a HUUUUUUGE risk given our confirmed townie pool. Of ShadySands, YourHarry, and mkfuba07, one of them being scum, who could get away with killing Kronen?

The answer is ShadySands. He's the only guy without serious suspicion on him.

Let me go back here:



I now consider this THE MOST POSSIBLE and my leading theory.

ShadySands and Promethelax scumteam.

On August 12 2012 09:19 Hapahauli wrote:
Howabout this Shady - find me someone on my "confirmed townie list" that I should suspect over you.

On August 12 2012 09:24 Hapahauli wrote:


Well you suggested that the 3rd scum could be on my "confirmed townie list," and right now, I have no reason to suspect anyone on that list over you. I will push a lynch against you unless you can convince me otherwise.

On August 12 2012 09:37 Hapahauli wrote:


Process of elimination. Of the three people; ShadySands, Mkfuba, and YourHarry, you're the only one that makes sense. I'll build a case on you tomorrow morning. I have no reason to suspect anyone out of those three people in the game.

If you give me a reason to suspect someone else - I'm willing to listen. You seem to be strongly indicating that someone on the confirmed townie list is mafia. TELL ME WHO. If you're not willing to scumhunt, please sit quietly and get lynched.

On August 14 2012 11:35 Lvdr wrote:
@Hapa: You know you're good when you make people rage-quit because they think you're hacking. Brain hacking maybe.

On August 14 2012 11:50 Blazinghand wrote:
I think it's pretty obvious Hapa didn't cheat, and he just played well. Did you even see him play in XXI? He's a great player!

I think even being suspicious of him is kinda a dick move. Scum was inactive this game and lost handily. It happens. Let it go, man.

And Hapa, I get that you're pissed he's calling you a cheater and you're right to be pissed, but telling him "fuck you" doesn't help anything.

Shady, take some time to think about what you're saying and how immature you sound, and come back to the thread in a few days and talk it out.



You forgot two possibilities here, which is that you're both town, and you're going to try to policy lynch a skilled townie-- or that you're both scum, and obviously you're not gonna shoot your scumbuddy.

Chill out, leave thread, come back in a few days and talk it out then.