EPTlooking forward to this =)
Newbie Mini Mafia XXII
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
looking forward to this =) | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 26 2012 11:57 Golbat wrote: if i'm not too late to sign up, /in This will be my first game =D Does this complete the circle? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Sweet =) Let's go guys. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 06:53 Promethelax wrote: I've only seen that as a possibility in a plurality lynch while we are playing a majority lynch. Different mechanics. So Keir: any thoughts yet? Shall we lynch Obvious for being obviously scum? and keep the pattern going, shall we attack Zork for being unable to answer my vague questions or try to lynch one of the two of us for being too active? From a logic standpoint, it makes sense to always have a lynch target each day, because voting patterns, voting times, and the order in which players vote are some of the most important clues that the town can use. For example, if the target turns out to be green or blue, then we can backtrack and start seeing who started the bandwagoning and go from there. If the target turns out to be red, we can see who did the last minute voting or tried to swing the balance away from them, and add those to the list. But if we simply go for a no-lynch, there's no pressure on the scum to actually put their money where their mouth is, so to speak. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote: Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on Keirathi K (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote: First things first: If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum. Some policy discussion: Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis. Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis. Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles? I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early. 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior. That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally. Ange777 - No posts yet Keirathi - Six posts Promethelax - More than 10 posts alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post Mordanis - Three posts Obvious.660 - 2 posts MrMedic - 1 post, edited aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku DarthPunk - No posts yet goodkarma - No posts yet Golbat - No posts yet Shady Sands - 2 posts so far Zorkmid - 5 posts Players in order of activity: Promethelax Keirathi Zorkmid Mordanis Obvious.660 aRyuujin Shady Sands alan133 MrMedic -- Lurkers -- Ange777 Darthpunk goodkarma Golbat Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting. The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
That being said, the order of greatest to least posts should still be correct | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 06:41 Promethelax wrote: Day 1 is like any other day, we don't have all the information we want to have but we should use what information we do have to lynch a guy who looks scummy. Not a guy who looks like bad town. Marv said it best in the QT for I can't believe its not themed mini mafia: "best town play is to lynch scum" post 101 if you are curious. It was in reply to something dumb I said. While I'm not saying we will hit scum without fail we should try to. We can eliminate shitty players later with Vigi shots or scum will shoot them. A lurky scum team will have no ability to control where we look, if me and my boys had lurked in XIX we would have been crushed in LYLO but because 2/3 of us were active we managed a perfect victory despite Keirathi replacing in and figuring out all three of us at just the wrong time. aR: you make me happy with your Haiku Obvious: your limerick is excellent as well There are a couple points here that are bad advice: 1) Scum will not shoot bad town players. It just makes no sense 2) Do not, I repeat, do not, waste vigi shots on bad town players. Indeed, vigi shots are the single most critical resource the town has. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 08:15 Zorkmid wrote: This makes perfect sense to me, so how we determine who to target initially? Who we lynch Day 1 is not as important as how people react to the lynch. But if we have to settle on a method, I'd say do the following: 1) Wait until everyone has had a chance to post 2) Read back over the day's worth of posts and see who's posting pattern doesn't make sense/is self-contradictory. 3) Make a shortlist, see how the people on the list react to it. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 10:17 DarthPunk wrote: So I just read through the thread and the first post that really sprang out at me was this. + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote: Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on Keirathi K (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote: First things first: If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum. Some policy discussion: Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis. Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis. Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles? I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early. 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. So after some policy discussion Mordanis makes his case against Keirathi. After some WIFOM we get to this - So Keirathi is blue and we are in bad shape if he is NK/Lynched. but then we get to this: And this: Twice stating that Keirath is is our best lynch at the moment which is a direct contradiction to his other premise. he ends with this: So after backflipping from his first premise (that it would be terribad for Keirathi to be NK and an even worse for us to mislynch him), and TWICE stating that Keirathi is our best Lynch. Mordanis decides that it isn't wise to commit right now after all. This post was WIFOM, contradiction and confusion. At best it is saying something while saying nothing. At worst it is a deliberate attempt of scum to mislynch their blue read day 1. Yeah it does doesn't it. FoS Mordanis I'm not sure we can use internal contradictions between Mordanis' three different points as evidence, given that they are illustrating three different "what-ifs". That being said, though, his logic as to why point #2 is the least likely and point #3 is the most likely doesn't hold water (or rather, doesn't exist), and each of his points are pretty farfetched. I'd say he's our best option for a day 1 lynch at this point, but to be extra sure, we should wait until Ange777 has had a chance to post as well, and Mordanis gets back from making pizzas and has had a chance to defend himself. Even if he flips green (which is likely, let's not get our hopes up here), his lynch will tell us a lot about who we should go after next, since people seem to have had strong reactions to both his proposal to go after Keir, his own lynching, and his arguments against policy lynching. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 12:23 DarthPunk wrote: -He posts 3 different scenario's on Keir which contradicted one another (he states these as a 'case', whatever). 2 of the 3 have Keir as a blue and the third as scum. Yet he still sees Keir as the best lynch. The case is completely confused and without a logical narrative, based on a 'virtual claim' by Keirathi that I honestly don't think is there. There is no reason whatsoever that I can think of to make a case with internal contradictions. Am I missing something here? -It is statistically likely that he will flip green. but you can say that about anyone. If you think he is town or not suspicious don't vote for him. Read filters, make a case etc. Nope, you're not missing anything. However, I was saying that it's fine to post scenarios which are mutually contradictory. That in and of itself should not be grounds to dismiss someone's arguments. I agree though that Mordanis' case itself doesn't make much sense. The reason I think it's likely he'll flip green right now is because we haven't been able to see his response to these accusations. If he responds in the way in which I think he will (or chooses not to respond at all) then I think he's a clear red. The other reason I think it's likely he'll flip green is because in the other games I looked through, it was very hard for the town to actually make a successful day 1 lynch. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try, though. Generally a Day 1 lynch is critical for filtering out who is actually a contributing member of the town versus who is simply generating more heat than light. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 12:51 Shady Sands wrote: The other reason I think it's likely he'll flip green is because in the other games I looked through, it was very hard for the town to actually make a successful day 1 lynch. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try, though. Generally a Day 1 lynch is critical for filtering out who is actually a contributing member of the town versus who is simply generating more heat than light. EBWOP: That point was in response to those who were arguing for a no-lynch, not in response to your arguments. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote: Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I'm completely unsure of what point Mordanis is trying to make here. So people who post are innocent, and people who don't post are also innocent? The town isn't talking about lynching people for heading to work--it's talking about lynching people who have never made a single post since the game began. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Nothing to argue against here, but when combined with the next part of Mordanis' post, it gets troubling: Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler + way too much!!!! So... wait a second. Mordanis thinks that because Keir posted a policy question, then fits two out of the five other indicators for being blue, he's trying to fake blue? Then Mordanis cites his own actions playing as a blue in a prior game to contrast with Keir's supposed blue fakery. This is weak logic at best, but when combined with his last post, really makes things an open and shut case: I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. On July 27 2012 12:53 Mordanis wrote: The reason I am talking about blues is because Keir seems to be trying to make people who are looking for blues beeline to him, but his play doesn't resonate with that of a true blue. If he's green, then he's trying to secretly manipulate the scum (trying to secretly "dig a yard under to make your enemy hoist to his own petard" is very dangerous), potentially harming town as a whole. The alternative is that he's red and trying to force the real blues to claim, and possibly being able to get out of a lynch by claiming Town RB. I have no idea which is more likely, but I think he is more likely scum than anyone else at this moment. That said, I need to eat and then read through more carefully before I can go any further. Mordanis claims Keir is trying to make people who are looking for blues beeline to him. This is a claim that Mordanis has not backed up with logic. All Keir said was for RBs not to RB on day 1. That's not trying to make blues beeline to him, it's sound advice--just like telling vigis not to waste their hits on night 1. Second, how does Keir's behavior not resonate with that of a "true blue?" Throughout both his posts, Mordanis has claimed to be able to tell who a "true blue" is, but he hasn't really shared what the criteria are other than saying "be lurky but still contribute", which is so vague as to be meaningless. Third, where has Keir claimed town RB? Where has he encouraged blues to roleclaim? Indeed, these two sentences serve only one purpose: showing that somehow, Mordanis is scared of blues roleclaiming to Keir because of some unstated belief that Keir is red. When you look at all that, and the weak logic against Keir, then what you see is the following pattern: Mordanis first claims that Keir is the likeliest candidate for lynching because he a likely candidate to be red. Then he backs off and claims that Keir could go red or green. Then he argues that we should lynch controversial candidates first. The point is, lynching controversial candidates would be fine, if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. This totally smacks of a Red finding out his original tactic for generating a bandwagon has failed, acknowledging that he is the only one arguing for a lynch, and then stating that because he is the only one arguing for a lynch, the person is "controversial" and should be lynched. What? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
##Vote Mordanis Where is Ange777? If he doesn't show up prior to the vote tally I may consider changing my vote to him. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 14:11 Golbat wrote: If he doesn't show up, he'll be modkilled anyways, so it doesn't really matter. Got it. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote: ... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler + if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote: Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this. As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had. From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt. Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote: I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today. Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic). On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote: I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough. ##Vote Mordanis If you're red, try to be less obvious next time. If you're green, try to be less scummy next time. I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat + Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] + I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] + On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote: Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler + way too much!!!! I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] + On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote: That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote: My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvote I just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler + That was me trying to be all internet tough And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote: The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS Mordanis It's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler + but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote: I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town. Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience. After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post". | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 19:49 DarthPunk wrote: Really? You have no idea why someone may be suspicious of you? The entire Keirathi case was terrible. It remains terrible. I reread mordanis' filter and looking back I don't even think he thought his case had any substance. Right from the get go you doubt yourself and the claim against Keirathi. Although you push your read you never commit yourself to it. As soon as you start taking heat from people you switch on to one of your accusers with no resolution to your kerathi case. You just walk away from it altogether and start throwing accusations at someone else. Right, while I think Mordanis' train of posts is suspicious, I think Golbat just sort of exposed himself with his giant train of self-covering posts. I'd go with Golbat right now as I think lynching him does one of two things: 1) He flips red, in which case we've gotten a D1 red lynch which puts us in the 75% win range 2) He flips green or blue, in which case Mordanis will be under quite a bit of pressure. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
[spoiler=List post by Golbat]Now let's look at his list post: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote: While we're all here, let's not waste time. We might as well discuss people other than Keir, because there ARE other people besides Keir. I think MrMedic may be scum, and is "reluctant to make a big first post" because he doesn't know how to post without being scummy. It's a legitimate concern, and if I had rolled scum in my first game, I might be in much the same state of mind. That being said, he might also be town, and reluctant to make a big post because he doesn't want to look scummy. I can understand that as well, and that was my concern before I actually got stuck into the discussion. Basically what my point is is that he either is or is not scum (lol), and that i'm going to be reading his posts very carefully until further notice. Keir seems to me to be town. He gave some good advice for our (potential) roleblocker where scum might have done the opposite and given intentionally bad advice while appearing to have good intentions. However, beyond that first bit of advice, he hasn't contributed anything to the scumhunt. He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all. It is possible that, knowing that they are both mafia, Mord made a really bad case against him so that the town would rally to his defense, thus keeping suspicion away from him, while also making Mord seem like a townie who had simply jumped at the first thing he saw that was a bit off. I hope he isn't scum, but I won't rule it out just yet. Pretty sure Mord is scum. I did vote for him after all. But, there is always the chance he was just a very eager townie. The only thing about him being town that rubs me the wrong way is how emphatically he decided to stay with his line of reasoning, despite the fact that it had been slapped down by multiple people. Very suspicious. Perhaps I myself jumped the gun in voting for him, but being one to not throw around votes lightly, i'm keeping my vote on him unless there is completely overwhelming evidence that he is either not scum, or that someone else is scummier. I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3. DarthPunk seems like a pretty straight-forward townie to me. He picked apart Mord's case against Keir, and hasn't said one thing yet that doesn't seem pro-town. I agree with almost all of the things he says, and look forward to winning with him after we lynch the final mafia. Promethelax Hasn't said much of substance, but that can be excused due to not being able to post. He said he'd be here to watch GSL, so he's probably going to post very soon. I have no idea about his alignment, other than that he claimed to be town. aRyuujin Has said nothing of substance, and hasn't given a reason for his lack of content. Seems to be a lurker, and if he doesn't speak up with something useful by the day2 deadline, he's certainly one of the people I have my sights on. goodkarma has given a legitimate reason not to vote Mord, and I can respect that. Going for the policy lynch on a lurker I can respect too, but I think that we should lynch someone who feels scummy before someone who feels asleep on their keyboard. alan133 has one good post, and nothing else of substance. But being from Malaysia I can understand not being synched up with the rest of us. I'll have to read his posts when I wake up tomorrow. Zorkmid seemed to be active before the ball truly got rolling, and then ceased to post after it did. Being canadian, he's probably asleep, and as such I'll have to wait to pass judgement on him as well. Shady Sands, aside from being a good writer, also seems to be town. He agrees with my assessment of Mord, and that is a good enough reason for me to avoid casting too much suspicion on him, but of course I can't completely trust anyone on day one. Obvious.660 is asleep Ange777 has said nothing since the game started. I hope to hear from him soon I'd like to hear other people's reads as well, this is going to be the only time I post a list of my reads on everyone, so as not to appear too spammy, even though I hope this clears me of any potential scum suspicion, seeing as i'm town as all get out. Very spurious reasoning on MrMedic, even more spurious than Mord's reasoning on Keir. The reason this looks worse than Mord's post on Keir is that this comes after he himself has made a giant post about how poor reasoning by Mord is counterproductive as his very first post in the game. What makes it seem guilty is that again, after making that accusation, Golbat drops it without bringing up MrMedic again in any of his other posts. Then Golbat states, again, that his only reason for posting a list is to clear himself of town suspicion. This is, again, pretty weird. It's almost as if Golbat is saying "Hey! Look, I'm contributing by making a giant long post! Don't lynch me!" Golbat says that he's going to keep the vote on Mordanis until better evidence comes up that shows Mord is innocent. Then a few posts down, Golbat unvotes Mord (in spite of Mord doing more of what Mord was doing--arguing his point emphatically and often alone against the rest of the town), then puts him on FoS. Then Golbat moves down to systematically state that every member of the town is innocent in his eyes due to a wide variety of excuses. This was a major WTF moment for me, as I didn't really understand the necessity of doing something like that. The only way this move makes sense is if Golbat is somehow trying to cover for his scum buddies by lumping them all in with the rest of the town, and by subtly equivocating any sort of analysis (from time of posting analysis to post content analysis to voting analysis) into mediocrity and uselessness. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote: I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] + On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote: That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote: My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvote I just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler + That was me trying to be all internet tough And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote: The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS Mordanis It's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler + but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote: I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town. Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience. After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post". EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch--especially if Golbat flips blue/green. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 20:36 Promethelax wrote: Hi all! Back from work late and I'm blasted to bare with me if I'm not making sense, I'll clarify after I sleep and wake up if anything is obfuscated by my mental sate right now. Well, a few things have changed since I was away, I see. aR: I actually found your Haiku to be pretty easy to read. I'm glad you stopped with them since one or two took some time for me to work out but in general I don't feel that they obscured your ideas too much. Unless I'm shit-house retarded this was posted two hours ago by SS and he never said anything else. I'll be voting for him based on my earlier case and his lurky response to it, if there was a case on me I'd do my damndest to explain my behaviour to town and make sure that people hunt scum instead of me. So, Shady seems really suspicious to me and I will be voting for him, I hope you all will join me and lynch this scum bastard today. I'll be up for a while more and may pop back in to the thread before going to sleep. I probably won't post again after sleeping until 24 hours from now when I get out of work tomorrow. For now: ##Vote: ShadySands Have a more substantive post on the front burner, but I think this post is something we need to note. Look through Promethelax's filter: he makes an accusation against me, then signs off, sees no response to his accusations and says I'm lurking, then calls for a lynch because someone hasn't responded to his accusations yet. His reasoning in going from FoS Shady Sands to Vote Shady Sands is a single two-hour old post that says I'm reading through the thread. I think we have better candidates to lynch, but this behavior strikes me as fairly scummy. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 20:42 alan133 wrote: Goodkarma I disagree that we should focus on lynching lurkers at this point of time. We have better lynch targets out there, so I suggest we focus on them. The problem with lynching lurkers day 1 is that it is much harder to make the correct call this early on. Later into the game, townies get more information so we can make a better decision when it comes to low content poster. Also, when it comes to lurking, there are two types of them: 1) Those that post very little, and 2) those that post a lot of junk post. I suggest we drop the lynch lurker discussion and go on scumhunting. It is fine if you want to call out a lurker but with better evidence other than "he lurks". The first successful lynch we got in my last game was a lurker, and despite having very little post count they are all really scummy. The reason you voted aRyuujin also fits in a few other players, MrMedic, Keirathi and Zorkmid to name a few. You addressed one more point why you intend to lynch him instead of the others:
I don't think you should pursue a aRyuujin lynch as of now, a few players have argue that they are not in favor of a lurker lynch (That includes me). I skimmed through his post and the scummy thing I got off him is his poems, which he stopped doing. Current Situation That said, I am feeling very uncomfortable with how the game is progressing. Compare to my first game, the activity level is really poor, and the "active posts" were mostly about Mordanis, Golbat and Shady, based on what has been brought up since 24 hours ago. Also, I did not count, but the impression I got was that is set to be lynched. I feel discouraged because I read Golbat is the least scummy one, of all 3. So I did a re-read on all their filters. Shady I went through Shady's post. Skimming through his filter reminded me of this eerie feeling when I read about his policies and advices, which a few other players have highlighted, so I am not going to repeat after them. There are also one other post in his filter that I am not a big fan of: Like I said, our focus is to lynch a scum, not what happens if player x flips scum. This is the kind of post that got Scum killed in my first game. However, the severity aren't as bad as the one since it is not a list of "what if we kill this player". Also, although my last game has a successful day 1 lynch, I thought Shady just missed it since there are so many games out there. However, Mordanis' did a list of day 1 lynch and from there I saw day 1 scum lynch is not as uncommon as stated. I originally think Shady's willingness to do his research on other games is a townie trait, and I did not put my pressure on him because of this. However, with this new information, I believe Shady lied. TL:DR I am slightly inclined to believe he is Scum. Golbat After re-reading Golbat's filter, my stance on Golbat is townie remain unchanged. Here is my defence for him. Golbat reminds me of my first game. I basically was wishy-washy because I believe we shouldn't jump to conclusions and town is going after me because of that. I spent most of my entire day 1 defending myself. Someone mentioned Golbat spent most of his time explaining why he is town. I say this is a normal newbie townie reaction when people is after you. Golbat's pulling out of Mordanis' case is his biggest scum tell. However, follow this logic: Assuming scum Golbat. Why would he pull out? There are 3 more players after Mordanis if I am not wrong. Assuming Mordanis is town, he could have easily gotten a mislynch. Also, if Golbat is red, pulling out means he would not want to associate himself for pushing for a mislynch. Why would he blatantly say that? So that all of you would jump on him? Town sided Golbat would fit in this behaviour. However I maintain my position that our focus is to lynch a scum, nothing else. However, reading through this thread I found quite a few players doing it, and obviously they all can't be scum. I suggest focus on scum hunting with what information we have now, instead of thinking what information we could get if we lynch the person TL:DR I am against lynching Golbat. Mordanis His post has improved after the ones that accuse Kei for being not blue. Also, he went so far as to check on other games just to find out if Shady is lying, suggested that he is willing to go through the trouble to scum hunt someone for what he said. There is also scum sided explanation: he could be a scum over-committed to twist every word to get a mislynch. However, I think the later is less plausible. With him being the first one to start the scum hunt game, I am willing to overlook the part where he "cares about who is not blue". TL:DR I am swayed to believe Mordanis is less of a scum, I am not a big fan of lynching him right now As the dead line is approaching, I suggest we narrow down the lynch targets. I believe we need at least 7 votes to lynch. I am strongly against no-lynch. That said, I would like to commit my vote to: ##vote: Shady_Sands based on the reasoning above. Going to answer Alan's post in more detail, but for now responding to the specific claim that I lied about the D1 lynches: the search filter I used was "TL Mafia" in the search box above, which returned about 20 different mafia games. I scrolled through them until I found a clear Day 1, and used those as tallies. That's why my figures are so low--because most of the games I found with that filter were early games with lots of players. If I'm guilty, I'm guilty of making a bad search filter, not intentionally lying. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 13:46 Golbat wrote: I'll probably be able to read the thread before I have to go to work tomorrow morning, but in case I don't get that chance, ##Vote aRyujin This is why I am voting for him: His haiku style makes it easy for him to fill up his posts with a shit load of waffle and some nearly baseless accusations and almost get away with it. I hope in between now and deadline the eye of suspicion takes a long, hard look at him, because his confusing waffle is nothing short of a full-on impediment to real discussion. I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons : His direct swap from "I agree with golbat, let's lynch Mord" after Mord drew such attention to himself to "Let's lynch Golbat and then Mord, because one of them HAS to be scum" after people started questioning me is something that I don't think anybody else agreed with. The way he seemed so concrete about who we should lynch for multiple days is really suspicious. We should be picking lynches on a day by day basis as more discussion takes place, not queue up our votes for several days straight. Right now these two seem to me to be the most scummy. Of course, if someone else decides to act scummy as all get out, i'd be happy to vote for them as well, but at the moment these two seem the most suspicious. Hopefully i'll be able to get back and read/contribute more in the morning, as i'll be at work when the deadline hits and won't be home for three or four hours after that. His rationale for voting aRyujin basically boils down to "aRyujin posts in Haiku--therefore he is a worthless townie--therefore we should lynch him." Simplified, Golbat is saying that we should lynch aRyujin because there would be no loss if aRyujin was gone. Apart from the fact that our poet has switched to normal prose from his prior haikus, Golbat's analysis is so simplistic and vapid that it would make me laugh were it not such a clear indication of scummy play. Now let's look at what Golbat was doing in response to his own accusations: On July 28 2012 05:24 Golbat wrote: Okay, now I'm back. It looks like pretty much everyone else in the thread seems to think I'm scum. Well that's not good, because i'm not. You all seem to think that my incredibly poor play has something to do with me being scum, when that's not the case at all. I'm town. I'm very town, I'm just bad. I Honestly thought all of my posts were helpful when I posted them. I can see now why they aren't. I also think you can do better than lynching me. I propose instead that today we lynch someone who hasn't been a part of the conversation much, as it's entirely possible that the mafia has decided to sit back and let me and Mord go at it while the town analyzes itself to pieces. I feel that in that regard, Keir has been suspiciously quiet so far. Besides defending himself from Mord's suspicions early on, and this post, + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 15:32 Keirathi wrote: @goodkarma: I mostly agree with your assessment of Mordanis. I feel like it would be a really silly play for a mafia to try to pull this early. It *WAS* a suspiciously weak case though, but mostly I feel like it was a townie trying to find something to push rather than a scum trying to start a bandwagon. I'll be keeping my eye on him though, that's for sure. About your suspects: aRyuujin I don't really have much to comment about him. I feel like its too early to start qualifying people as lurkers. It is the middle of the night in US times, so I suspect a lot of people are sleeping. MrMedic In his longest post, he did have some good insight despite how hard the post was to follow. He noted how each point of the Mordanis case against me seemed to be trying to paint me dying in a good light. Would definitely like to hear more from him, hopefully in an easier to follow writing style next time though. Promethelax People have to work and sleep. I've played with Prom before, I have no doubt that he'll be active when he has time. People have to work and sleep, they can't be active 24 hours a day. That being said, Prom has been scum in most (all?) of his previous games, so I'm definitely keeping an eye on him  On July 27 2012 11:46 Keirathi wrote: @Goldbat: At the same time, you can't just give people a free ride for lurking. Like Mordanis pointed out + Show Spoiler + Mordanis wrote: Easiest way for scum to win is to have town all say "Yeah, Lurkers are a bad target, we'll always lynch our best read". Its a pretty common scum strategy to lurk while the active townies FOS all over each other, and eventually kill themselves. It's a balancing act of deciding if people are "lurking with intent" or just townies not posting much. So basically Golbat is saying, Keir is quiet, let's lynch him. Then Golbat says aRyujin is posting Haikus, let's lynch him. Then he shifts to Shady Sands: On July 28 2012 13:46 Golbat wrote: I'll probably be able to read the thread before I have to go to work tomorrow morning, but in case I don't get that chance, ##Vote aRyujin This is why I am voting for him: His haiku style makes it easy for him to fill up his posts with a shit load of waffle and some nearly baseless accusations and almost get away with it. I hope in between now and deadline the eye of suspicion takes a long, hard look at him, because his confusing waffle is nothing short of a full-on impediment to real discussion. I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons : His direct swap from "I agree with golbat, let's lynch Mord" after Mord drew such attention to himself to "Let's lynch Golbat and then Mord, because one of them HAS to be scum" after people started questioning me is something that I don't think anybody else agreed with. The way he seemed so concrete about who we should lynch for multiple days is really suspicious. We should be picking lynches on a day by day basis as more discussion takes place, not queue up our votes for several days straight. Right now these two seem to me to be the most scummy. Of course, if someone else decides to act scummy as all get out, i'd be happy to vote for them as well, but at the moment these two seem the most suspicious. Hopefully i'll be able to get back and read/contribute more in the morning, as i'll be at work when the deadline hits and won't be home for three or four hours after that. Basically his case against me is that I switched from Mord to Golbat when no one else did so, and because I talked about multi-day lynching patterns. I'm going to address the multi-day lynching complaint in a separate post, but calling for suspicion just because someone made that switch from a target to another target alone seems like a call for people to bandwagon, which is generally not optimal town play. Indeed, this is where Golbat seems to show his true colors: look at the below part-- I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons This is really wierd. Basically Golbat is saying he'll vote for someone if the rest of the town bandwagons that person. In a situation where the mafia can and will bandwagon a day 1 lynch, such a position is stupid at best and dangerous/scummy at worst. Why would Golbat even leave himself that out, and state it publicly? This circles back to my point about "loud scum" being a difficult strategy to play, because inevitably a player will make a scumslip like the sentence above if they keep playing loudly. In that regard I think Mordanis made the right strategic choice way back in the beginning (even if on a tactical level his reasoning was completely off-kilter and wasted the town's time.) I'd like to close my case against Golbat with the following quote from Golbat: Just because you aren't making cases doesn't mean you still can't contribute. You could read over someone's filter and point out inconsistencies, or share a read you have on someone, or do ANYTHING. Not having a complete case to share yet isn't an excuse to not contribute at all. If nobody does any talking, how are we going to get anything done? That's exactly true--Golbat hasn't pointed out a single inconsistency or read as a justification for any of his lynches (either aRyujin, me, or Mordanis--remember that Golbat simply said "what are we waiting for let's just lynch Mordanis already"), yet he seems to acknowledge that this is the right way to play town. Something's not right here. ##Unvote Mordanis ##FoS Golbat I will likely vote Golbat, barring something huge coming up, before the 17:00 EDT deadline. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 21:30 Promethelax wrote: ah, no. You're wrong there. We're getting close to deadline for me (because I'll be asleep for a while) and no one has shown me anything that makes me think anyone is scummier than you or that you are town and therefore less scummy than someone else. I didn't place my vote early because I don't like to vote really early. I Placed my vote when the thread had time to do its thing and make other cases or defenses, I like to be informed before I make my decisions. I would have voted for you even without your most recent post. I just thought I would mention it since I had a chase against you and more post was, once again, scummy. tl;dr I was going to vote you unless 1) you had posted a convincing defense of yourself or 2)someone had made a case that made me think someone was scummier than you. Neither of those things happened while I was at work. I voted for you. Ah, ok. I just found it a little wierd that you wouldn't mention at all the huge debate surrounding golbat or mordanis, instead only talking about aRyujin's haikus and my one-liner post. I'm going to write a defense post now--hope it addresses your concerns (and the concerns of anyone else who shares your line of thinking.) | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 28 2012 14:28 Obvious.660 wrote: Shady Sands' is 100% convinced Mordanis is scum. And is willing to waiting 2 days to lynch him. This is bad play. If we identify scum, we kill them. No crazy circular logic of if x person dies then we have more information y person. Just no. Scum can scheme, they are aware of eachother. Town cannot, except in the case of Masons. Shady Sands is my current #1 scum read. #FOS: Shady Sands Obvious, by the time I switched my vote off Mordanis to doing a 2 day wait on his lynch, I was no longer 100% convinced he was scum. I wrote that since he was playing "loud" (actively posting relatively strong analysis), if he was scum, he would quickly out himself in two or three days anyhow, so there was no need to rush a lynch. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 00:14 Ange777 wrote: Valid points but I fear that we won't get an answer from Golbat before deadline. In general, activity in this game is aweful. Zorkmid and MrMedic have disappeared as well. No worries, I think a lynch on Golbat, like you said, will tell us a lot about the remaining players here, even if he is silent. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Onto the second point, which is something quite a few players are basing their votes on: + Show Spoiler [Alan133's analysis] + On July 28 2012 20:42 alan133 wrote: Goodkarma I disagree that we should focus on lynching lurkers at this point of time. We have better lynch targets out there, so I suggest we focus on them. The problem with lynching lurkers day 1 is that it is much harder to make the correct call this early on. Later into the game, townies get more information so we can make a better decision when it comes to low content poster. Also, when it comes to lurking, there are two types of them: 1) Those that post very little, and 2) those that post a lot of junk post. I suggest we drop the lynch lurker discussion and go on scumhunting. It is fine if you want to call out a lurker but with better evidence other than "he lurks". The first successful lynch we got in my last game was a lurker, and despite having very little post count they are all really scummy. The reason you voted aRyuujin also fits in a few other players, MrMedic, Keirathi and Zorkmid to name a few. You addressed one more point why you intend to lynch him instead of the others:
I don't think you should pursue a aRyuujin lynch as of now, a few players have argue that they are not in favor of a lurker lynch (That includes me). I skimmed through his post and the scummy thing I got off him is his poems, which he stopped doing. Current Situation That said, I am feeling very uncomfortable with how the game is progressing. Compare to my first game, the activity level is really poor, and the "active posts" were mostly about Mordanis, Golbat and Shady, based on what has been brought up since 24 hours ago. Also, I did not count, but the impression I got was that is set to be lynched. I feel discouraged because I read Golbat is the least scummy one, of all 3. So I did a re-read on all their filters. Shady I went through Shady's post. Skimming through his filter reminded me of this eerie feeling when I read about his policies and advices, which a few other players have highlighted, so I am not going to repeat after them. There are also one other post in his filter that I am not a big fan of: Like I said, our focus is to lynch a scum, not what happens if player x flips scum. This is the kind of post that got Scum killed in my first game. However, the severity aren't as bad as the one since it is not a list of "what if we kill this player". Also, although my last game has a successful day 1 lynch, I thought Shady just missed it since there are so many games out there. However, Mordanis' did a list of day 1 lynch and from there I saw day 1 scum lynch is not as uncommon as stated. I originally think Shady's willingness to do his research on other games is a townie trait, and I did not put my pressure on him because of this. However, with this new information, I believe Shady lied. TL:DR I am slightly inclined to believe he is Scum. Golbat After re-reading Golbat's filter, my stance on Golbat is townie remain unchanged. Here is my defence for him. Golbat reminds me of my first game. I basically was wishy-washy because I believe we shouldn't jump to conclusions and town is going after me because of that. I spent most of my entire day 1 defending myself. Someone mentioned Golbat spent most of his time explaining why he is town. I say this is a normal newbie townie reaction when people is after you. Golbat's pulling out of Mordanis' case is his biggest scum tell. However, follow this logic: Assuming scum Golbat. Why would he pull out? There are 3 more players after Mordanis if I am not wrong. Assuming Mordanis is town, he could have easily gotten a mislynch. Also, if Golbat is red, pulling out means he would not want to associate himself for pushing for a mislynch. Why would he blatantly say that? So that all of you would jump on him? Town sided Golbat would fit in this behaviour. However I maintain my position that our focus is to lynch a scum, nothing else. However, reading through this thread I found quite a few players doing it, and obviously they all can't be scum. I suggest focus on scum hunting with what information we have now, instead of thinking what information we could get if we lynch the person TL:DR I am against lynching Golbat. Mordanis His post has improved after the ones that accuse Kei for being not blue. Also, he went so far as to check on other games just to find out if Shady is lying, suggested that he is willing to go through the trouble to scum hunt someone for what he said. There is also scum sided explanation: he could be a scum over-committed to twist every word to get a mislynch. However, I think the later is less plausible. With him being the first one to start the scum hunt game, I am willing to overlook the part where he "cares about who is not blue". TL:DR I am swayed to believe Mordanis is less of a scum, I am not a big fan of lynching him right now As the dead line is approaching, I suggest we narrow down the lynch targets. I believe we need at least 7 votes to lynch. I am strongly against no-lynch. That said, I would like to commit my vote to: ##vote: Shady_Sands based on the reasoning above. + Show Spoiler [Promethelax's analysis] + On July 27 2012 21:49 Promethelax wrote: Alright, I'll look into their filters and see if anything is popping there. What I found, and still find weird about shady is this: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 08:38 Shady Sands wrote: I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior. That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally. Ange777 - No posts yet Keirathi - Six posts Promethelax - More than 10 posts alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post Mordanis - Three posts Obvious.660 - 2 posts MrMedic - 1 post, edited aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku DarthPunk - No posts yet goodkarma - No posts yet Golbat - No posts yet Shady Sands - 2 posts so far Zorkmid - 5 posts Players in order of activity: Promethelax Keirathi Zorkmid Mordanis Obvious.660 aRyuujin Shady Sands alan133 MrMedic -- Lurkers -- Ange777 Darthpunk goodkarma Golbat Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting. The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now. Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter. the other thing in here I want to focus on is his lets wait attitude. for example: from the above post and others He also says that both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently. He also replys to my advice by saying scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool. His next post tells us to wait for more people to post until we make cases and the one after that is a case... Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip. What originally felt scummy to me in Sands' filter was this post where he says: Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than. I also hate this post: the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town. So based on Sands' play I think that he is scum. He has earned my FoS and as of this moment he would be my vote if nothing changed between now and lynch. I'll be keeping my eye on him because, as he said, just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find. Most of these complaints center on the following statement from me: I'd go with Golbat right now as I think lynching him does one of two things: 1) He flips red, in which case we've gotten a D1 red lynch which puts us in the 75% win range 2) He flips green or blue, in which case Mordanis will be under quite a bit of pressure The complaint is that this a bad way to actually win as town, and makes me seem scummy by essentially calling for Golbat to be pitched to the fire even if he's innocent. That's taking my quote out of context: I never stated that we should lynch Golbat regardless of whether he is scum or not, I said that lynching Golbat is our best hope of uncovering scum in the town. First, because, as I've stated before, Golbat is the player which I think is most likely to be scum based on his D1 posts and behavior, and second, because Mordanis is a very active player, which means that if Golbat flips blue/green Mordanis will need to make a lot of explanatory posting under quite a bit of pressure (since he was the first one to FoS Golbat). Either way, Golbat brings a lot of clarity to the town. [b]I never said that we should auto-lynch Mordanis if Golbat flips green/blue--rather that since it will be easy for town to put pressure on Mordanis if Golbat flips non-scum, and that Mordanis is an active poster, then it will be easy to make him crack if he is scum. Hope that clears things up for everyone. Sorry for dragging town in another direction, and for posting slowly--that will not be the case this weekend. I'll be checking in on the thread actively over today, and if nothing else happens I'll post my vote at about 15:00 EDT. It will likely be to Golbat. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 02:31 Ange777 wrote: @Shady: So if we are not supposed to auto-lynch Mordanis if Golbat flips green/blue, how are we to interpret your following statement? That if Mordanis flips red, Golbat is green/blue, and if Mordanis flips green/blue, Golbat is red. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 03:07 Ange777 wrote: Do you mind elaborating how you came up with this conclusion??? This was part of a discussion on whether or not to lynch Mordanis and whether or not to lynch Golbat. From my POV, it looked unlikely that scum would be bussing their own members on Day 1, given that Day 1 lynch rates tended to mislynches anyhow. Therefore, the first half of the statement--that if Mord flips red, Golbat (his main accuser) should be green/blue. I did not state this in the thread because I thought this was apparent. The second half of the statement--that if Mord flips green/blue, Golbat should be red--is because Golbat was, as Mord noted, the first person to start hinting at lynching Mord (before other people had even made up their minds about it) and also made that extremely suspicious "end all discussion, vote Mord" post. This smelled to me like either extremely bad town play (which I, as a general rule, try not to believe in--I think that most players will behave fairly intelligently) or a clear attempt by a red to push for a mislynch. So if Mord was innocent, then the likeliest red would be Golbat. Then, after writing that, I started reading through Golbat's posts themselves, and they suggested an added layer of guilt--especially his flip-flopping and multiple backtracking to defend himself. Then Golbat tried defending himself some more, and looked even more scummy, etc. etc. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
##Vote Golbat | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 03:45 Ange777 wrote: Did it ever occur to you that both might be mislead townies? You are already crossing out a lot of possibilities by saying that either of them has to be scum. And by commiting yourself to this as a fact, how can you say that we are not supposed to auto lynch the other one if the first one flips town? I think you're getting a little confused here--I never said that either have to be scum. I said that if Mord is lynched and comes up as innocent, Golbat is likely scum. If Mord is lynched and comes up as guilty, then Golbat is likely to be innocent. However, I did not mean that if Golbat is innocent, Mord comes up as scum, or if Golbat is scum, Mord comes up as innocent. That is because Mord didn't seem like he was railroading Golbat, while Golbat did look like he was railroading Mord pretty hard. That being said, though, if Golbat flips blue/green, the pressure will be on Mord to explain himself. The pressure will also be on me as well, since I've argued against Golbat fairly heavily (just as heavily as Mord, if not more). I'm glad about that, since pressure keeps activity up, and keeps the scumhunt moving forward. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 04:52 DarthPunk wrote: could we get a vote count please <3 I think right now, on Golbat we have: Ange777, aRyujin, Keirathi, Zorkmid, Goodkarma, me, and Mordanis. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 05:12 Shady Sands wrote: I think right now, on Golbat we have: Ange777, aRyujin, Keirathi, Zorkmid, Goodkarma, me, and Mordanis. EBWOP: That is in order of when people posted their votes. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 05:24 Ange777 wrote: Okay, this is a totally different thing than what I understood in the first place. Apologies! I am still unsure about you though and would like to hear your opinion on goodkarma. Here's my read on GK: I'm not really sure why he would zero in on aRyuujin like that. Basically GK's rationale for lynching people is: Filter people who "appear active" --> Find those who are active but who are light on the content --> Start analyzing and prepping for lynch. So he filtered 3 people out who appear active: aRyu MrMedic Promethelax Then he says hmmm aRyu is contributing the least... and then seems to forget about the other two and keep digging on aRyu. Now aRyu obviously doesn't do town any favors by making his defense consist of haikus, but the shift by GK to just focusing on aRyu was a little off to me. His shift Golbat was well-timed and well-explained, so nothing can be really inferred from that. I'm not suspicious of GK right now, but I am a little puzzled by why he would drop MrMedic and Promethelax so quickly from his list of suspicious inactives, given that MrMedic hasn't voted and Promethelax seems to space his posts 14 hours apart and ignored the giant debate on Mordanis/Golbat entirely. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
For now, here are the most critical posts that led to Golbat's lynch: + Show Spoiler [Mord's initial post] + On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote: Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote: Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this. As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had. From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt. Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote: I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today. Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic). On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote: I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough. ##Vote Mordanis If you're red, try to be less obvious next time. If you're green, try to be less scummy next time. I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat + Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] + I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] + On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote: Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler + way too much!!!! I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. + Show Spoiler [Keir's read on Golbat] + On July 28 2012 16:52 Keirathi wrote: Golbat (as an aside, am I the only person that has trouble typing Golbat instead of Goldbat?) :[
Two other people that I am minorly interested in: goodkarma I find repeatedly pushing to have lurkers lynched is an anti-town trait. Our goal is to lynch scum. You claim it's impossible to make solid reads on day 1, but without people making reads, our ability to get successful lynches later in the game diminishes. Repeatedly trying to sheep us back onto lurkers and away from active cases is suspicious. Mordanis While I don't find his initial case against me particularly suspicious (other than the fact that it was pure WIFOM) because it could reasonably have been made by either town or mafia, he hasn't full escaped my notice. He repeatedly tried to assert that I wasn't blue. What good is that information to town, and why did he feel the need to point it out? Town never has a reason to "blue hunt", but scum always does. I really feel like Golbat is our best chance of flipping scum at the moment, so: ##Vote Golbat + Show Spoiler [My reads on Golbat] + [QUOTE]On July 28 2012 21:33 Shady Sands wrote: I am sticking with my eye on Golbat. [QUOTE]On July 28 2012 13:46 Golbat wrote: I'll probably be able to read the thread before I have to go to work tomorrow morning, but in case I don't get that chance, ##Vote aRyujin This is why I am voting for him: His haiku style makes it easy for him to fill up his posts with a shit load of waffle and some nearly baseless accusations and almost get away with it. I hope in between now and deadline the eye of suspicion takes a long, hard look at him, because his confusing waffle is nothing short of a full-on impediment to real discussion. I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons : His direct swap from "I agree with golbat, let's lynch Mord" after Mord drew such attention to himself to "Let's lynch Golbat and then Mord, because one of them HAS to be scum" after people started questioning me is something that I don't think anybody else agreed with. The way he seemed so concrete about who we should lynch for multiple days is really suspicious. We should be picking lynches on a day by day basis as more discussion takes place, not queue up our votes for several days straight. Right now these two seem to me to be the most scummy. Of course, if someone else decides to act scummy as all get out, i'd be happy to vote for them as well, but at the moment these two seem the most suspicious. Hopefully i'll be able to get back and read/contribute more in the morning, as i'll be at work when the deadline hits and won't be home for three or four hours after that. His rationale for voting aRyujin basically boils down to "aRyujin posts in Haiku--therefore he is a worthless townie--therefore we should lynch him." Simplified, Golbat is saying that we should lynch aRyujin because there would be no loss if aRyujin was gone. Apart from the fact that our poet has switched to normal prose from his prior haikus, Golbat's analysis is so simplistic and vapid that it would make me laugh were it not such a clear indication of scummy play. Now let's look at what Golbat was doing in response to his own accusations: [QUOTE]On July 28 2012 05:24 Golbat wrote: Okay, now I'm back. It looks like pretty much everyone else in the thread seems to think I'm scum. Well that's not good, because i'm not. You all seem to think that my incredibly poor play has something to do with me being scum, when that's not the case at all. I'm town. I'm very town, I'm just bad. I Honestly thought all of my posts were helpful when I posted them. I can see now why they aren't. I also think you can do better than lynching me. I propose instead that today we lynch someone who hasn't been a part of the conversation much, as it's entirely possible that the mafia has decided to sit back and let me and Mord go at it while the town analyzes itself to pieces. I feel that in that regard, Keir has been suspiciously quiet so far. Besides defending himself from Mord's suspicions early on, and this post, + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 15:32 Keirathi wrote: @goodkarma: I mostly agree with your assessment of Mordanis. I feel like it would be a really silly play for a mafia to try to pull this early. It *WAS* a suspiciously weak case though, but mostly I feel like it was a townie trying to find something to push rather than a scum trying to start a bandwagon. I'll be keeping my eye on him though, that's for sure. About your suspects: aRyuujin I don't really have much to comment about him. I feel like its too early to start qualifying people as lurkers. It is the middle of the night in US times, so I suspect a lot of people are sleeping. MrMedic In his longest post, he did have some good insight despite how hard the post was to follow. He noted how each point of the Mordanis case against me seemed to be trying to paint me dying in a good light. Would definitely like to hear more from him, hopefully in an easier to follow writing style next time though. Promethelax People have to work and sleep. I've played with Prom before, I have no doubt that he'll be active when he has time. People have to work and sleep, they can't be active 24 hours a day. That being said, Prom has been scum in most (all?) of his previous games, so I'm definitely keeping an eye on him On July 27 2012 11:46 Keirathi wrote: @Goldbat: At the same time, you can't just give people a free ride for lurking. Like Mordanis pointed out + Show Spoiler + Mordanis wrote: Easiest way for scum to win is to have town all say "Yeah, Lurkers are a bad target, we'll always lynch our best read". Its a pretty common scum strategy to lurk while the active townies FOS all over each other, and eventually kill themselves. It's a balancing act of deciding if people are "lurking with intent" or just townies not posting much. So basically Golbat is saying, Keir is quiet, let's lynch him. Then Golbat says aRyujin is posting Haikus, let's lynch him. Then he shifts to Shady Sands: [QUOTE]On July 28 2012 13:46 Golbat wrote: I'll probably be able to read the thread before I have to go to work tomorrow morning, but in case I don't get that chance, ##Vote aRyujin This is why I am voting for him: His haiku style makes it easy for him to fill up his posts with a shit load of waffle and some nearly baseless accusations and almost get away with it. I hope in between now and deadline the eye of suspicion takes a long, hard look at him, because his confusing waffle is nothing short of a full-on impediment to real discussion. I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons : His direct swap from "I agree with golbat, let's lynch Mord" after Mord drew such attention to himself to "Let's lynch Golbat and then Mord, because one of them HAS to be scum" after people started questioning me is something that I don't think anybody else agreed with. The way he seemed so concrete about who we should lynch for multiple days is really suspicious. We should be picking lynches on a day by day basis as more discussion takes place, not queue up our votes for several days straight. Right now these two seem to me to be the most scummy. Of course, if someone else decides to act scummy as all get out, i'd be happy to vote for them as well, but at the moment these two seem the most suspicious. Hopefully i'll be able to get back and read/contribute more in the morning, as i'll be at work when the deadline hits and won't be home for three or four hours after that. Basically his case against me is that I switched from Mord to Golbat when no one else did so, and because I talked about multi-day lynching patterns. I'm going to address the multi-day lynching complaint in a separate post, but calling for suspicion just because someone made that switch from a target to another target alone seems like a call for people to bandwagon, which is generally not optimal town play. Indeed, this is where Golbat seems to show his true colors: look at the below part-- [quote]I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons[/quote] This is really wierd. Basically Golbat is saying he'll vote for someone if the rest of the town bandwagons that person. In a situation where the mafia can and will bandwagon a day 1 lynch, such a position is stupid at best and dangerous/scummy at worst. Why would Golbat even leave himself that out, and state it publicly? This circles back to my point about "loud scum" being a difficult strategy to play, because inevitably a player will make a scumslip like the sentence above if they keep playing loudly. In that regard I think Mordanis made the right strategic choice way back in the beginning (even if on a tactical level his reasoning was completely off-kilter and wasted the town's time.) I'd like to close my case against Golbat with the following quote from Golbat: [quote]Just because you aren't making cases doesn't mean you still can't contribute. You could read over someone's filter and point out inconsistencies, or share a read you have on someone, or do ANYTHING. Not having a complete case to share yet isn't an excuse to not contribute at all. If nobody does any talking, how are we going to get anything done?[/quote] That's exactly true--Golbat hasn't pointed out a single inconsistency or read as a justification for any of his lynches (either aRyujin, me, or Mordanis--remember that Golbat simply said "what are we waiting for let's just lynch Mordanis already"), yet he seems to acknowledge that this is the right way to play town. Something's not right here. ##Unvote Mordanis ##FoS Golbat I will likely vote Golbat, barring something huge coming up, before the 17:00 EDT deadline.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote: [QUOTE]On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote: ... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler + if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote: Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this. As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had. From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt. Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote: I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today. Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic). On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote: I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough. ##Vote Mordanis If you're red, try to be less obvious next time. If you're green, try to be less scummy next time. I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat + Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] + I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] + On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote: Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler + way too much!!!! I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] + On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote: That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote: My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvote I just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler + That was me trying to be all internet tough And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote: The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS Mordanis It's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler + but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote: I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town. Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience. After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post".[/QUOTE] These are the main posts that led to Golbat's lynch. Another thing to note: Zorkmid and Obvious both ended up shifting to Golbat with minimal analysis at all. I'd say Zork looks the quietest between the two, but Obvious also strikes me as a little odd too, since he popped into the thread 10 minutes after Golbat's lynch without commenting once in the prior six hours, even though he was trying to get me lynched and people were busy bandwagoning Golbat. Normally, I'd expect someone who was trying to aim for a lynch on someone to at least argue their case before the lynch when the town was heading in the opposite direction. I have a few hunches on where we should go next, but I'd like everyone to read through the above posts first. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote: In regards to my activity, should be able to pick it up by Monday if I haven't been decimated. Going for quality over quantity til the wedding stuff (not my wedding) is finished. (double spacing to keep things grouped) Weird, why didn't he mention he had a wedding to attend in any of his earlier posts in the thread? This seems like a pretty strange after-the-fact excuse for any strange patterns of activity. One thing that is important for everyone in town to start watching for now is activity patterns and posting patterns. Scum will tend to post with an identifiable ringleader and others following in their footsteps... and they will often all make excuses about IRL commitments to assuage any doubts about odd patterns in their collective posting histories. So here's what I'm putting together from all of this: Shady Sands' play is rather deliberately confusing and time wasting: 1) Bringing in statistics without identifying exactly how they were obtained, ergo they were not easily identifiable as a lie >>>>Lots of time is wasted on people focusing on the stats, trying to verify them, instead of spending time looking at what is more readily confirmed: anything in the thread. 2) Trying to understand what he meant by what flips reveal about the surviving town members, before any other deaths occured >>>>This will end up being a bunch of circular logic on Day 1 given that no other information is known to plain old town members. Delays relevant conversation away from today's discussion and focuses on tomorrows. 3) Being willing to let someone who he considers definitely scum survive the night >>>>No. We always kill scum, potentially removing scum power roles in the process. 4) While in the process of writing this, Shady has claimed that I voted for Golbat. >>>>This is wrong, as my vote was on Shady. More misdirection/confusion. 1) Again, sorry for bringing in statistics without sourcing them properly, but that's at least something substantive to debate on 2 and 3) The discussion was on whether to lynch Mordanis or Golbat. We lynched Golbat because he looked the scummiest. The added light Golbat could share on Mordanis was just a bonus, and the discussion never said that it was anything except that. 4) That was an honest mistake--thought Obvious switched to Golbat by the end. Even so, though, my original point still holds: Why would he jump into the thread right after Golbat got lynched, but not before, even though he voted against the Golbat lynching? I would imagine that he'd be interested in persuading other people of the merits of your vote, but he didn't do so. That seems pretty scummy/strange to me. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 30 2012 02:29 alan133 wrote: I just got back. I was called out right after breakfast and did have any internet access until now when I got back home. I just went through a few filters would like to throw out a few points I noticed, in case I die. @Keirathi After going through Kei's filter, goodkarma's case on Kei made much more sense. Kei's first page in his filter since the game started has literally zero scum hunting. He dedicate most of his post passively defending targets of other people's case. (Note: I directly copy paste text so text formatting is not preserved) I am not going to post his entire filter, look at his filter and I would be surprised if you don't agree with me. This is the only post where I found him writing a case Also, this post gives me a "funny" feeling: While there is nothing wrong to urge other players to contribute, I feel uneasy when this comes from a person where his filter consist of one case against players that are already being presented, and the rest of them were mostly him passively commenting on other people's cases, I feel like there is plausible + Show Spoiler + although speculative Keirathi also said this: Are you actually discouraging discussions here? For all I know scums can push their own agendas based on these "bad" discussions as well? @MrMedic I hope you don't miss your next vote, and since you claimed you are going to be free, (And I doubt scums would target you if you aren't one yourself), I would like to see more post from you in day 2. Don't worry, if you are town, just post when you see someone doing something scummy, and don't wait for another person to say it first: It will almost paint you in the wrong light. I refrained from looking at Shady Sands and Mordanis because the filters that I have been reading the entire time was theirs + Golbat's. I noticed So looks like you will be FoS me too, since I have been giving "excuses about IRL commitments"? I think it is best to declare when you're available to play so when you're being called out at least people knows you won't be around to response. That said, it's late over here so I won't be around in 8 hours, so in case I got killed, please consider my points here. Just a real quick one here--I called out Obvious because he made the wedding excuse after I made the point about his strange posting patterns (holding off on criticizing Golbat's lynch until after the fact, essentially, when if he thought Golbat was innocent he could have and should have been defending him quite actively prior to the lynch.) I don't see any strangeness from you in the dimension. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
First, I understand that everyone has RL commitments that will keep them from babysitting this thread. However, claiming RL commitments post-facto, after people have called out suspicious absences, will make you look scummy. This is because as the game goes on post timing (and seeing who is bandwagoning on who) becomes a very important method of analysis. If we accept all post-facto RL excuses as valid, then it makes this sort of analysis useless. Second, here are some cases to look at: a) Mordanis After looking through his D1 posts, ironically enough, it was his post where he switched focus to analyzing my statistics claims that made me want to exonerate him of being scummy. That shows that he was not irrationally focused on Golbat. That being said, though, I think we should all keep in mind Mordanis' logic for going after Golbat: Golbat makes post that sounds accusatory without proper evidence + Golbat calls for end to debate = Golbat is scummy Remove the second part of that equation and Mordanis' case on Golbat (and all our reads on Golbat) fall flat. I think this is something to take note of here--I think this was a good case, but it was mostly because Golbat made a pretty bad mistake in calling for an end to debate with 40 hours to go in the day that Golbat ended up getting lynched. I'm also waiting for Mord's response to better flesh out why he initially pushed for the Golbat lynch. I think the town deserves an explanation given that Golbat flipped Vig. b) Obvious I'm still not satisfied with Obvious' lack of defense of his own position prior to the D1 lynch. Obvious hasn't attempted to respond to this argument yet. c) Promethelax After reading through Keir's posts on Prome's inactivity, I'm getting a little troubled too by Prome's play this game. Put simply, he was about 3x as active in Mafia XIX (when he was mafia) than in this game, and his analysis in this game has been mostly circumstantial as opposed to mutually supportive. Second, given that Keir knows Prome's playstyle the best, I'm going to go ahead and state that if Keir gets NK'd my suspicion will fall heavily on Promethelax as suggesting the NK to the rest of the scum team. Given that Keir hasn't been posting much of substance (but mostly been focusing on trying to confirm townies) it doesn't make sense for scum to go after him as opposed to another, more "case-oriented" player. d) Goodkarma My read on GK is still pretty gray. I haven't had the time to read through his latest posts in the filter yet, but given that a lot of people in the town are beginning to look at him, I will do so as well. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
They knew how whichever candidate was up would flip, so they had the ability to determine where in the vote they would go to minimize their chance to get lynched D2. I think Mordanis hits the nail right on the head here--this is the main lens through which we should be analyzing every single D1 post. Voting order is very important here. Who joined the Golbat train, and when? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Remove the second part of that equation and Mordanis' case on Golbat (and all our reads on Golbat) fall flat. I think this is something to take note of here--I think this was a good case, but it was mostly because Golbat made a pretty bad mistake in calling for an end to debate with 40 hours to go in the day that Golbat ended up getting lynched. EBWOP: My point here is basically don't make these sorts of mistakes in the future--since scum has the advantage in bandwagoning people, and these sorts of slips give easy reasons to bandwagon, it means giving up a lot of edge to scum. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 30 2012 06:01 ghost_403 wrote: End of Night 1 ![[image loading]](http://www.videogamefigures.com/store/pc/catalog/sm0723.jpg) Figure 3. There's no way this can end badly. Something about lynching of Golbat got to goodkarma. Deep down, he knew that an innocent man had hanged today, and he knew it would be a long time before he would sleep well again. Walking home, he found himself at an intersection. One path lead to his house, the other to the local watering hole. After drowning some of his sorrows, he found himself back at the same intersection, and this time, decided it was time to go home. A still drunk goodkarma was awoken several hours later by a knock at his door. Getting down the stairs is a challenging task during that awkward time in between being drunk and being hung over, but he somehow managed to make it to his front door. Looking outside, he couldn't see anything in the inky black night. He opened the door and was greeted by a small Bomb Omb plushie someone had left on his welcome mat. Understandably confused, he picked it up. Sometimes, the Bomb Omb plushie delivered to your doorstep in the middle of the night isn't actually a Bomb Omb plushie. This was not one of those times. "Well, that's kind of weird" goodkarma muttered to himself before closing the door and going back to bed. Day 2 has begun! You have 48 hours to vote for the next lynch. Does this mean GK is confirmed town? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 30 2012 06:04 marvellosity wrote: Day post is flavour only, there are no clues to night events within it Thanks. I thought the post meant someone had shot GK and then someone else medic'd him. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 30 2012 06:04 Mordanis wrote: MEDIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I think!???????????? There are two possibilities. 1) Scum elects not to use kp, because they want to fake a medic. 2) We have a functioning medic who also now has a confirmed green/blue as well. Scenario 2 is very good for us. It is our best outcome possible on night 1. Scenario 1 | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 30 2012 06:12 Shady Sands wrote: There are two possibilities. 1) Scum elects not to use kp, because they want to fake a medic. 2) We have a functioning medic who also now has a confirmed green/blue as well. Scenario 2 is very good for us. It is our best outcome possible on night 1. Scenario 1 EBWOP: Continued--> Scenario 1 means scum is very confident in their ability to lead us on a mislynch, and/or also wants to be able to fake roleclaim medic in the future. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 30 2012 06:09 Ange777 wrote: Nice save/roleblock :D Heading off to bed now but will be back for scum hunting first thing in the morning! Be warned scum <3 This is also a 3rd possibility: we have a RB who knows of a confirmed red, now. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
One thing I'm a little puzzled by: On July 30 2012 19:11 Obvious.660 wrote: EBWOP: To clarify, I say this because I do not believe that all three scum would have piled on the Golbat vote. I forgot about Promethelax being on the list of those who didn't vote for Golbat when I wrapped up, so technically this conclusion can be wrong. However, I've not been able to find any conclusive evidence that Promethelax is engaging in scummy behavior so I'm leaning town for him presently. Subject to change. Terms and conditions may apply. See store for details. How does Obvious know there are only three scum? Scum numbers are not fixed in a C9++ game as far as I know. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++#Scum_Roles Scum Roles TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) 0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather It will be a random selection from one of those options, which means either 2 or 3 scum are possible. I'm not sure how Obvious knows there are three scum. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 31 2012 00:26 DarthPunk wrote: Ok Guys sorry for the lack of content. had uni for 10 hours and an assignment due. Started reading the thread at midnight so in order to get my thoughts across etc. I have just taken notes in word whilst I read the thread through and then it's off to bed. Goodkarma I have posted previously what i thought of goodkarmas policy lynch er policy. But his (her? for some reason i always want to say her) Posting has dramitically improved since he was called on it and now includes actual content and analysis. This section in particular seems to make a lot of sense to me and gives me town vibes from goodkarma. Ange + Mordanis. Mordanis' case on ange is ironic. Mordanis lead the case against Golbat for much of the day cycle yet switched off him and then back onto him after I questioned why (never answered to my satisfaction) Ange777 stuck with her vote the whole time. Yes she did cast suspicion onto goodkarma after going after golbat hard. This sums it up well and in the context of the situation there was quite a large side debate on lurkers and aruujin parallel to the golbat-mordanis-shady sands discussion that was happenining at the time. I still find mordanis suspiscious and i feel as if my case against him was never really answered satisfactorily and just sort of got drowned out in the noise. His posting and reasoning has improved INCREDIBLY (thanks BTW) and lots of people seem to be having small town reads on him. That being said if anyone wants to know my thoughts on him at a later date let me know. I will be watching him closely. -Mordanis. I mean i don't get why this guys doesn't start alarm bells ringing for you guys like he does for me. Loud Mafia The "loud mafia are easier to spot therefore we wait to lynch them" argument/policy that people have been using seems ridiculous to me.There is absolutely no way that people should be under less scrutiny for posting more. They are more likely to slip if they post alot. But that does not mean people should also just get away with questionable posts because their filters are large and they make cases. (i.e. mordanis) Promethelax No he doesn't say that he is a town analyst he is saying he is potentially both. Why is he trying so hard to establish himself as pro town? That combined with this: Buddying Keirathi after he places him within a group of possible scum and then trying to establish himself as pro town seems quite suspicious to me. Only Mafia win the game by not dying, we win the game by finding scum. I request you spend less time attempting the former and more of your good analysis on the latter. I have Just had a WTF moment whilst reading through the thread and taking these notes. But will make a special post for that. <3 Obvious. Darth, I'm getting really bad vibes about Promethelax's "town circle"/"town leadership" ideas as well. No idea why he would choose to lurk D1 and then immediately start to argue for something like this so quickly. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
This is going to be pretty long, so I've decided to use anchor tags to help people navigate. Also, my vote goes to ##Vote Promethelax. Explanation below. Table of Contents: Cases General points The Case on Obvious.660 The first point of suspicion on Obvious, is, as previously stated, his post seven minutes after Golbat's lynching. Obvious comes in and says this: On July 29 2012 06:07 Obvious.660 wrote: What the fuck. Then he goes and makes a post that seeks to examine every single person that votes for Golbat, coming to the somewhat obvious conclusion that Mordanis, myself, and Keirathi were the key players in the Golbat lynch. Then he makes an ad hoc wedding excuse, which gets called out. His response to that is actually pretty long: Seriously, if you want me to describe in minute detail every hour of my day from here out, I'm more than willing to share with you those details. I'm unemployed, I tend to sleep 12 hours at a time, my cousin is getting married in six weeks and this weekend was her bridal shower and bachelorette party which I was helping with (once again, Shady Sands at it again with the confusion that I was at a wedding. That's not what I said). I'm trying to emphasize here that there is no mystery to why I haven't been posting much up to this point, but my reasons are being dismissed as scummy excuses. I also already told you to expect my posting to pick up by Monday, which is now arriving soon (my time, EST). You can call me a liar and policy lynch if you want if my posting isn't up to your standards if it will make you feel better, but you'll find you're just distracting yourself from finding actual scum. 6) Claims I was at a wedding when I clearly said wedding stuff. >>>>Note I didn't say: "I'm going to a wedding guys I'm gonna be trashed and fucking useless for like two days, so don't expect to see me!" I just said I had stuff going on during the day (stuff that doesn't happen while I sleep, unfortunately) that was wedding related. Why assume it was a full wedding, a way better excuse that would let me get away without posting even longer. I'm not trying to get out of contributing, I just have shit to do. I certainly could have come back and used that as an excuse for not posting by delaying my contributions even further if I wanted to, as it was open to me with his assumption. This is really wierd. He goes and talks about this wedding stuff twice in a row without any intervening posts about the wedding; instead he seems to be hell-bent on proving that his absences are not indicative of anti-town play. Then he claims that lynching him for this would be a policy lynch, which is not the point: The point is that when players have suspicious timing noted by others, and then claim IRL commitments after they've been accused of suspicious timings, then it makes people look like they're trying to cover up for something. Think back to the whole concept behind setting up to a D2 mislynch. This links to the next point on Promethelax too--my strong suspicion is that both are working together to paint themselves as pro-town, and busy coordinating posts between each other while claiming IRL commitments. The case on Promethelax Now to the meat here: On D1, Promethelax posted the following things: On July 27 2012 06:53 Promethelax wrote: I've only seen that as a possibility in a plurality lynch while we are playing a majority lynch. Different mechanics. So Keir: any thoughts yet? Shall we lynch Obvious for being obviously scum? and keep the pattern going, shall we attack Zork for being unable to answer my vague questions or try to lynch one of the two of us for being too active? On July 27 2012 07:26 Promethelax wrote: You win for my favourite response ever. If you are ever in my neck of the woods hit me up and I'll buy you a drink just for that. On July 27 2012 07:37 Promethelax wrote: Unrelated to the discussion so far after reading Shady Sands' Op here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355847 I expect awesome posts from him/her. Slim Shady: you've got some awesome to live up to. Since we haven't been productive so far I would like us to turn our attention to pressure: I for one am concerned that MrMedic may not be a medic and is lying about his role in his name. Okay, what I'm actually concerned about is that all he posted is that he is here. I want more. On July 27 2012 18:31 Promethelax wrote: So, sorry this is so long, I'm just off work (and holy hell was tonight crazy) and trying to respond to people who have posted since I left. First of all welcome to all you new players, its great to have you. Now on to the substance: Honestly I straight up disagree with this, I have seen great plays based on lying, usually fake claims to pull night kills or push town in the right direction. Every lie should be closely analyzed to see how it benefits town or scum and why; the reasons for the action are what we should or should not lynch on, not the actions themselves. If you really want me to I'll try to find an example of this. @Shady Sands: Vigi shots were originally created with the intent that town cuold use them to hit scummy looking lurkers without wasting lynches. That is still a good use for them. Just wanted to say: this is why I posted my work schedule before the game started, my stupidly timed absenses are not alignment indicative. I'll be doing this a lot of the time. I like to tell the thread where I am so that they know if they should expect a reply from me or not. I feel this is optimal play for both town and scum so it should be a totally null behavior, at least from me. Man do your research, I was scum in XIX and town in MTG. I'm an active poster in everything. MTG I was in way over my head playing with people who knew their shit while it was my first ever game. I'm trying to be a better townie this game than I was in that one. Oh god, I'm the new Marv... aR reminds me of some really great townie players who have given themselves posting limitations (Foolishness in Aperature and Mattchew in the first MTG) if he can convey his reads and everything else in Haiku more power to him. His play thus far is slightly green to me but not far from null. Modanis is playing badly no matter which side he is on, I'll be keeping an eye on him but since we've already seen this from him he has to step up his game if he is Town or scum so I'll wait to see more from him before making a real read. @ Golbat:+ Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote: While we're all here, let's not waste time. We might as well discuss people other than Keir, because there ARE other people besides Keir. I think MrMedic may be scum, and is "reluctant to make a big first post" because he doesn't know how to post without being scummy. It's a legitimate concern, and if I had rolled scum in my first game, I might be in much the same state of mind. That being said, he might also be town, and reluctant to make a big post because he doesn't want to look scummy. I can understand that as well, and that was my concern before I actually got stuck into the discussion. Basically what my point is is that he either is or is not scum (lol), and that i'm going to be reading his posts very carefully until further notice. Keir seems to me to be town. He gave some good advice for our (potential) roleblocker where scum might have done the opposite and given intentionally bad advice while appearing to have good intentions. However, beyond that first bit of advice, he hasn't contributed anything to the scumhunt. He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all. It is possible that, knowing that they are both mafia, Mord made a really bad case against him so that the town would rally to his defense, thus keeping suspicion away from him, while also making Mord seem like a townie who had simply jumped at the first thing he saw that was a bit off. I hope he isn't scum, but I won't rule it out just yet. Pretty sure Mord is scum. I did vote for him after all. But, there is always the chance he was just a very eager townie. The only thing about him being town that rubs me the wrong way is how emphatically he decided to stay with his line of reasoning, despite the fact that it had been slapped down by multiple people. Very suspicious. Perhaps I myself jumped the gun in voting for him, but being one to not throw around votes lightly, i'm keeping my vote on him unless there is completely overwhelming evidence that he is either not scum, or that someone else is scummier. I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3. DarthPunk seems like a pretty straight-forward townie to me. He picked apart Mord's case against Keir, and hasn't said one thing yet that doesn't seem pro-town. I agree with almost all of the things he says, and look forward to winning with him after we lynch the final mafia. Promethelax Hasn't said much of substance, but that can be excused due to not being able to post. He said he'd be here to watch GSL, so he's probably going to post very soon. I have no idea about his alignment, other than that he claimed to be town. aRyuujin Has said nothing of substance, and hasn't given a reason for his lack of content. Seems to be a lurker, and if he doesn't speak up with something useful by the day2 deadline, he's certainly one of the people I have my sights on. goodkarma has given a legitimate reason not to vote Mord, and I can respect that. Going for the policy lynch on a lurker I can respect too, but I think that we should lynch someone who feels scummy before someone who feels asleep on their keyboard. alan133 has one good post, and nothing else of substance. But being from Malaysia I can understand not being synched up with the rest of us. I'll have to read his posts when I wake up tomorrow. Zorkmid seemed to be active before the ball truly got rolling, and then ceased to post after it did. Being canadian, he's probably asleep, and as such I'll have to wait to pass judgement on him as well. Shady Sands, aside from being a good writer, also seems to be town. He agrees with my assessment of Mord, and that is a good enough reason for me to avoid casting too much suspicion on him, but of course I can't completely trust anyone on day one. Obvious.660 is asleep Ange777 has said nothing since the game started. I hope to hear from him soon I'd like to hear other people's reads as well, this is going to be the only time I post a list of my reads on everyone, so as not to appear too spammy, even though I hope this clears me of any potential scum suspicion, seeing as i'm town as all get out. So as for the Golbat/Mord nonsense, yeah its day one stay cool and try to be productive. Don't just OMGUS each other, if you are town it doesn;t help and if you are scum you look scummy. Play better please. Ange: its good to see you posting I think that means that we are all here. Lets get down to business, I'm going to read over some filters and see if anything pops out at me. I'm here and I'll be around until I pass out (it is 6:30 am for me). On July 27 2012 19:27 Promethelax wrote: True enough. Down with the fluff! Would you do my a favour and read through Shady's filter and tell me what you think. I have some opinions and I want to hear from someone else before I bias them with my reads. Yeah, if I hear a any noob play the newb card from here on I will hate said noob forever. Don't be dumb, we're all newbs that is why we're in a newb game. There are two points to note here: 1) He says say no to fluff, but only after posting the fluffiest posts in the entire thread--beer, my novella, joking about lynching Obvious, etc. 2) He always has a tendency to try and get other people to do research for him/buddy up to people first, before posting cases on specific people. This is something that is very strange--why would a townie feel the need to try and make friends/build alliances with other townies before cases are even active? Note that this isn't done out of self-preservation either--no one was FoSing Prome on D1, yet he decided to do this quite actively. Then on D2, Prome goes and forms his "trusted townie" idea. I wish I had more time prior to the lynch to dissect this, but this is just an extension of point 2 above. Mordanis pretty much covered all the relevant points here: On July 31 2012 19:10 Mordanis wrote: I'm really confused by Promethelax's play. He just admonished me for fluff posts. His entire first page of his filter is fluff. He comments on my opening case being really bad, regardless of my alignment. Look at his first FOS: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 18:55 Promethelax wrote: I'd like to bring some attention to Zorkmid: He starts with policy talk, as we all did. Follows it up with an immediate about face when he learns about the no-lynch option He leaves hoping for more from others and after that comes back with a question and than dissapears That was over ten hours ago, I don't get it. Where did you go Zork? I don't like his play so far and, thus, a FoS is declared. On July 27 2012 07:18 Promethelax wrote: Okay Ghost, will do. On July 27 2012 07:26 Promethelax wrote: You win for my favourite response ever. If you are ever in my neck of the woods hit me up and I'll buy you a drink just for that. On July 27 2012 07:37 Promethelax wrote: Unrelated to the discussion so far after reading Shady Sands' Op here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355847 I expect awesome posts from him/her. Slim Shady: you've got some awesome to live up to. Since we haven't been productive so far I would like us to turn our attention to pressure: I for one am concerned that MrMedic may not be a medic and is lying about his role in his name. Okay, what I'm actually concerned about is that all he posted is that he is here. I want more. On July 27 2012 07:38 Promethelax wrote: EBWOP: I'm also concerned that his post was edited. Watch yourself my man or Ghost will smite you with his mighty powers. On July 27 2012 08:27 Promethelax wrote: My girlfriend got home so I don't have time to read one last time before going to work. I'll see you in 10-12 hours. Good luck town. On July 27 2012 21:49 Promethelax wrote: Alright, I'll look into their filters and see if anything is popping there. What I found, and still find weird about shady is this: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 08:38 Shady Sands wrote: I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior. That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally. Ange777 - No posts yet Keirathi - Six posts Promethelax - More than 10 posts alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post Mordanis - Three posts Obvious.660 - 2 posts MrMedic - 1 post, edited aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku DarthPunk - No posts yet goodkarma - No posts yet Golbat - No posts yet Shady Sands - 2 posts so far Zorkmid - 5 posts Players in order of activity: Promethelax Keirathi Zorkmid Mordanis Obvious.660 aRyuujin Shady Sands alan133 MrMedic -- Lurkers -- Ange777 Darthpunk goodkarma Golbat Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting. The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now. Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter. the other thing in here I want to focus on is his lets wait attitude. for example: from the above post and others He also says that both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently. He also replys to my advice by saying scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool. His next post tells us to wait for more people to post until we make cases and the one after that is a case... Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip. What originally felt scummy to me in Sands' filter was this post where he says: Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than. I also hate this post: the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town. So based on Sands' play I think that he is scum. He has earned my FoS and as of this moment he would be my vote if nothing changed between now and lynch. I'll be keeping my eye on him because, as he said, just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find. The other thing that confuses me is the petulance with which Promethelax is trying to become the "town mayor". Here are a few examples: + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 17:33 Promethelax wrote: If you have set up questions ask the host otherwise you are just wasting thread space and padding your filter while adding nothing to the thread. On July 30 2012 18:14 Promethelax wrote: Sorry I'm on my way to bed and I figured I would quickly reply to Karma before falling asleep. I am sure I'll miss some points but the basic one of why is my play so different now than it was is that I work Tuesday-Saturday. I play better on my days off. As to the town leader thing: I just spent like ten minutes looking for the quote but couldn't find it. I think it was Marv who said (and I'm paraphrasing) "town needs two things, a good annalist and a good leader; they don't have to be the same person they just both have to exist" I'm not saying I should be a town leader or a town analyst, I am saying that town is following my analysis and that I am taking things said by players whom I greatly respect and trying to forge my town play around that. If the two things that town needs are a good leader and someone with good analysis I will try to provide both. I think you and I don't see eye to eye on what a town leader is. I'm not saying we should elect a mayor, I'm saying having someone who is clearly pro-town trying to create a pro-town environment is a necessity for town. By town leader I mean someone who is creating an environment where town flourishes even if the person creating that environment has their head up their ass on every single one of their reads. Essentially, from what I've read about XIX Promethelax kind of mauled town by getting into the "town circle", and controlling the game from there. I don't think a smart person could try the same strategy against people its already been used on and expect to win again. For that reason, Promethelax's inconsistent/illogical/ seems to be a mild indicator of scumminess. Also, being relatively inactive during one day reduces the amount of stuff any player needs to defend himself later. Edit before having to double post (EBHTDP) I am still confused by large parts of his play. For instance the part about lynching semi-lurkers seems sort of like what he's doing. GK hasn't posted nearly as many times as Prom himself, myself, Keir, Ange, Obvious, or Shady. 6 players of 12 left have 3 or more pages in their filter, the other 6 have 2. GK has spent a lot of his time defending himself, so if you take that away he's pretty lurky. But the caffeine is wearing off now, see y'all in the morning. Still, I like the content he generated with that post on GK, so I'll be watching Prom closely. I seriously need to pass out now though :/ So basically there you have it--why I am voting Prome, and why I am FoSing Obvious. There are a couple of dead links above that I will be filling with anchor tags as the night goes on. Again, ##Vote Promethelax. Sorry about the lateness of this post, but as I stated earlier a major IRL commitment came up (brother's DUI) that required me to spend all night at the police station and all morning at the lawyers. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
The main reason I'm voting Prome over obvious is that Obvious is the less experienced player between the two, and less dangerous one. After reading through what Prome did to the town in XIX, given my suspicions I feel it is dangerous to let him live if we are reasonably certain he is scum. Obvious is less threatening and his guilt is already semi-established. We should lynch him after we lynch Prome. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Yes, this means I am roleclaiming Mason. Please find below his will: Keirathi wrote: Last Will and Testament Hello everyone. I assume by the fact that you are reading this, that I have been shot by those villanous scum, and have forsaken my mortal shell to walk amongst the Heavens. My only regret is that my life was shortened so tragically and I wasn't able to fuflfill my duties to the town. Without further adieu, I shall move on to my bequests:
Sincerely yours, Mr. Kei R. Athi In all seriousness, I had a lot of fun writing this. I hope I die just so that Shady can post it. I kind of had to hurry at the end to get it finished before the deadline, so I slipped out of the legalese a bit, sorry  Good luck, good fight, and good night! | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
I just don't see the remaining town agreeing if it gets to 5 town vs 3 mafia, as all five town would have to agree on the lynch. This quote from GK had me confused. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 02 2012 08:56 marvellosity wrote: Hey, please don't refer to any conversations you may have with any coaches. I am really sorry! =( | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Obviously, a massive post on why Promethelax is guilty will be unnecessary at this point. That being said, I think there is a case for Obvious.660's guilt, as well, but after being part of two consecutive mislynches I'm a little more reluctant to tunnel him now. At this point, I think it's clear that something is wrong with our previous approach. The player most responsible for that was Mordanis ("start the scumhunt early and push it aggressively"), so I started to look through his filter a bit more closely. I'm beginning to think Mordanis may be scum again, here's why: When he first accused Golbat as opposed to me or Darthpunk, he doesn't offer any unique reasons why he picked Golbat. + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote: ... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler + if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote: Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this. As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had. From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt. Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote: I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today. Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic). On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote: I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough. ##Vote Mordanis If you're red, try to be less obvious next time. If you're green, try to be less scummy next time. I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat + Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] + I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] + On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote: Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide:In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler + way too much!!!! I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. Mord's first point, that Golbat is itching to lynch him, is just OMGUS. His second point, that Golbat is just excusing himself of potential scumslips when he claims he's a new player, doesn't hold much water when you consider that Mordanis himself claims excuses regarding fatigue: + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 16:26 Mordanis wrote: EBWOP I don't trust myself to think coherently for at least 45 minutes, so I'll start analyzing then. Mayben 1/2 hour from then? On July 31 2012 16:24 Mordanis wrote: I just realized that even 5 hours may not be enough to clear my inactivity or change the vote. Caffeine incoming, I should be back in about 45 minutes. Note that these posts claiming fatigue are a lot more troubling than even posts that clearly delineate periods of inactivity OR excuses about newbieness, because they give Mord the option to come back into the thread whenever he is "not tired". Mord's third point on Golbat, that Golbat is retaining the option to bandwagon a random non-lurker by stating he has an idea of who scum is but isn't committing, is actually not true, because if you read what Golbat wrote: Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic). Then it becomes obvious that Golbat was actually stating clearly who his idea of scum might be. So now it becomes apparent that Mord was just tunneling Golbat. Of course, Golbat didn't help things by basically reacting in the worst possible way to Mord's accusations, and then he ran into Keir and me tag teaming him too. But then I started thinking--what if Mord intentionally picked on Golbat because Golbat was newb? Then I started thinking about Mord's posts on Promethelax. + Show Spoiler + Was hoping I wouldn't have to do this, but here goes. I do not understand Promethelax's play. It has been at times hypocritical, illogical, and bad. I see very little scum motivation for the way he's been playing, assuming he's a competent player. I don't see any town motivation either, so I would prefer to wait to see if he continues to play the way he has. I haven't been able to look into GK's play much, and Promethelax's case on him isn't very strong, so I can't in good conscience vote for him unless I see another good case on him. Shady is in a similar position to Prom where he's had lurky play one day and weird play the other. Still, I can't seem to pin his play in this cycle as scummy. I don't know why people are suspicious of Zork. In other words, we have kind of a lousy set of cases today, for which I hold myself partly responsible. All in all though, I feel that Promethelax is the best target. His play could be described as a way to disrupt the scum-hunt, to get into a position of town-trust, to buddy up with players to make them feel bad for voting for him. I actually feel bad voting for him at this point, but he is my strongest read. He basically says he has no real reason for voting Promethelax unless someone else leads the way with a good case, then...votes for him. Based on GK's voting history analysis above, Mord actually casted the second-to-last vote. This also got me thinking: Keir might have given his mason connections away when he posted that "defense post" of me at the end of D1. Then Mord, if scum, knows that Keir can pull my vote on Prome, so Mord actually casted the deciding vote on Prome. So Mord casts the deciding vote on Prome while saying he feels really bad about Prome. Then you contrast this with his attitude towards lynches: From Ver's Town Guide: The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site). In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. So basically Mord knew Prome was a useless lynch, somebody that he himself did a last minute switch on, and Mord still went ahead even though he thought Prome himself wasn't that scummy. Mord cast the deciding vote on Prome even though he knew Prome's lynch was useless and Prome was not that scummy. But if you read Mord's analysis of Prome, this is where it starts to get interesting. + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 19:10 Mordanis wrote: I'm really confused by Promethelax's play. He just admonished me for fluff posts. His entire first page of his filter is fluff. He comments on my opening case being really bad, regardless of my alignment. Look at his first FOS: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 18:55 Promethelax wrote: I'd like to bring some attention to Zorkmid: He starts with policy talk, as we all did. Follows it up with an immediate about face when he learns about the no-lynch option He leaves hoping for more from others and after that comes back with a question and than dissapears That was over ten hours ago, I don't get it. Where did you go Zork? I don't like his play so far and, thus, a FoS is declared. On July 27 2012 07:18 Promethelax wrote: Okay Ghost, will do. On July 27 2012 07:26 Promethelax wrote: You win for my favourite response ever. If you are ever in my neck of the woods hit me up and I'll buy you a drink just for that. On July 27 2012 07:37 Promethelax wrote: Unrelated to the discussion so far after reading Shady Sands' Op here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355847 I expect awesome posts from him/her. Slim Shady: you've got some awesome to live up to. Since we haven't been productive so far I would like us to turn our attention to pressure: I for one am concerned that MrMedic may not be a medic and is lying about his role in his name. Okay, what I'm actually concerned about is that all he posted is that he is here. I want more. On July 27 2012 07:38 Promethelax wrote: EBWOP: I'm also concerned that his post was edited. Watch yourself my man or Ghost will smite you with his mighty powers. On July 27 2012 08:27 Promethelax wrote: My girlfriend got home so I don't have time to read one last time before going to work. I'll see you in 10-12 hours. Good luck town. On July 27 2012 21:49 Promethelax wrote: Alright, I'll look into their filters and see if anything is popping there. What I found, and still find weird about shady is this: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 08:38 Shady Sands wrote: I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior. That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally. Ange777 - No posts yet Keirathi - Six posts Promethelax - More than 10 posts alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post Mordanis - Three posts Obvious.660 - 2 posts MrMedic - 1 post, edited aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku DarthPunk - No posts yet goodkarma - No posts yet Golbat - No posts yet Shady Sands - 2 posts so far Zorkmid - 5 posts Players in order of activity: Promethelax Keirathi Zorkmid Mordanis Obvious.660 aRyuujin Shady Sands alan133 MrMedic -- Lurkers -- Ange777 Darthpunk goodkarma Golbat Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting. The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now. Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter. the other thing in here I want to focus on is his lets wait attitude. for example: from the above post and others He also says that both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently. He also replys to my advice by saying scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool. His next post tells us to wait for more people to post until we make cases and the one after that is a case... Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip. What originally felt scummy to me in Sands' filter was this post where he says: Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than. I also hate this post: the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town. So based on Sands' play I think that he is scum. He has earned my FoS and as of this moment he would be my vote if nothing changed between now and lynch. I'll be keeping my eye on him because, as he said, just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find. The other thing that confuses me is the petulance with which Promethelax is trying to become the "town mayor". Here are a few examples: + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2012 17:33 Promethelax wrote: If you have set up questions ask the host otherwise you are just wasting thread space and padding your filter while adding nothing to the thread. On July 30 2012 18:14 Promethelax wrote: Sorry I'm on my way to bed and I figured I would quickly reply to Karma before falling asleep. I am sure I'll miss some points but the basic one of why is my play so different now than it was is that I work Tuesday-Saturday. I play better on my days off. As to the town leader thing: I just spent like ten minutes looking for the quote but couldn't find it. I think it was Marv who said (and I'm paraphrasing) "town needs two things, a good annalist and a good leader; they don't have to be the same person they just both have to exist" I'm not saying I should be a town leader or a town analyst, I am saying that town is following my analysis and that I am taking things said by players whom I greatly respect and trying to forge my town play around that. If the two things that town needs are a good leader and someone with good analysis I will try to provide both. I think you and I don't see eye to eye on what a town leader is. I'm not saying we should elect a mayor, I'm saying having someone who is clearly pro-town trying to create a pro-town environment is a necessity for town. By town leader I mean someone who is creating an environment where town flourishes even if the person creating that environment has their head up their ass on every single one of their reads. Essentially, from what I've read about XIX Promethelax kind of mauled town by getting into the "town circle", and controlling the game from there. I don't think a smart person could try the same strategy against people its already been used on and expect to win again. For that reason, Promethelax's inconsistent/illogical/ seems to be a mild indicator of scumminess. Also, being relatively inactive during one day reduces the amount of stuff any player needs to defend himself later. Edit before having to double post (EBHTDP) I am still confused by large parts of his play. For instance the part about lynching semi-lurkers seems sort of like what he's doing. GK hasn't posted nearly as many times as Prom himself, myself, Keir, Ange, Obvious, or Shady. 6 players of 12 left have 3 or more pages in their filter, the other 6 have 2. GK has spent a lot of his time defending himself, so if you take that away he's pretty lurky. But the caffeine is wearing off now, see y'all in the morning. Still, I like the content he generated with that post on GK, so I'll be watching Prom closely. I seriously need to pass out now though :/ Basically Mord was the second one to write a long post accusing Prome in the thread--the first one was Darthpunk. But Mord is the first one to actually bring up Prome's glaring weakness: his mauling of the town in XIX, which suggests that he actually did his own research on the matter and wanted others to know about this fact. Soon as he figures that out, he jumps on the Prome bandwagon. So Mord's modus operandi seems to be exclusively targeting players with big, easily exploitable weaknesses, then encouraging bandwagons to form on them. Golbat's newbieness. Prome's repeat of his XIX playstyle. Every single day, Mord will wait for someone to expose a weakness, then try to tunnel them--and he explicitly states that this is his strategy for the town--to pressure people. Then, when people even jump on his bandwagons, he then accuses them of suspicious post timing: 3.) What was scummy about your patterns were, simply, the patterns. The timing was just so perfect to minimize the fallout from the results. As the second person to vote for Golbat, you avoid suspicion for jumping on a bandwagon. Pressuring other players is good, but it also separates you from your case on the person you voted for. The exact timing of tunelling Golbat when the day was wide open, Mixing your play when the lynch would go between Golbat or SS, and then exclusively pressuring other players when it became clear that Golbat would be lynched seems tailored to avoid negative attention. So perfectly tailored it seems more likely that you somehow knew Golbat would flip town than random play. So basically Mord is trying to set up a lynch chain without us even noticing it or him even stating it. He's set up a rhythm here: find a weakness that isn't directly related to being scummy (newbieness and past play), second an accusation, then sit back and watch the fireworks, and possibly set up a (mis)lynch for the next day if possible. All this smacks of a very aggressive scum play. And the icing on the cake: now that town already is down three members, including two power roles, Mord is going quiet. Bravo Mord, but your time is up. ##Vote Mordanis. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Just thought you should know that my TL mafia ban from a year ago all began from being tunneled as a townie. This quote from Zorkmid is a little weird. Moving on... | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
I think that in a game going this well for scum, a direct counter wagon would be incredibly stupid, throwing someone under the bus would be better. At the very least, I think the scum votes are probably split, unless they're completely ignoring their coach, because their coach would be telling them not to risk guilt by association on the entire team when they're doing this well with so many sheep in town. Long story short, it's possible, but I personally find it unlikely due to the incredible level of risk involved, and wouldn't be terribly surprised if both are actually town. This does not make sense with Just because I don't trust Ange or GK, I'll get my vote counter to theirs. We know that as town we have to stand together to make a successful lynch, and that splitting votes to counter is not an indicator of innocence. So why would Jinglehell do it? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Mord reads [red]Scum[/red to me, but half his case is coming from the great Darthpunk/Mordanis war of 2012, which makes me slightly weary of accepting all that on face value. This is what I think is going on now: Scum are going to split their accusations amongst different players. It makes no sense for Scum to try to wagon anyone at this point. That being said, Scum are not going to try and bus anyone either, since things aren't desperate for them. So scum are going to spread their accusations fairly evenly across a couple of greens. They can't accuse me, since I'm confirmed town. That leaves 5 people left for scum to pick a few different targets from. Right now the main lines of attack are Ange on Zorkmid and Darth on Mordanis. Of these two, Ange's case on Zork is much stronger than Darth's on Mordanis. The whole Mordanis lynch train is a little iffy to me. It doesn't seem to be based on consistent arguments, while Ange's case on Zork seems to be based on consistent arguments and those arguments are holding across multiple posters. Hence I'm going to go with Zork now. I would like to encourage everyone to pile in on the vote for Zork. ## Vote Zorkmid | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
We've just had our first big lynch of the game. So congratulations. That being said, I think there's a pretty high chance I'll get shot tonight. So before I go, I'd like to at least have a few hours of discussion. My thesis: I have found the next scum. How? Look at these two posts: On August 04 2012 03:05 Zorkmid wrote: I didn't want to have to do this just yet. I am a Doctor On day one I saved Keir. Day 2 I attempted to save aRyuujin. I tried to breadcrumb this early on. ##unvote ##vote Mordanis I think we're going to lose. On August 04 2012 03:49 Zorkmid wrote: Activity seems woefully slow. I guess thAt Most of you Are on Different cloCks that I am. Zork did a fake doctor roleclaim. His first post at 2 PM seems like a decent roleclaiming post. People ask for clues, and then he dumps the shittiest clue ever. Why? When I first read it, I thought they were trying to bait the real doctor into claiming, but if they wanted to do that, the clue had to have been good and convincing to regular townies. But then look at the claim/breadcrumb above. Good? Convincing? No, it almost looked like those two Olympics badminton pairs that were both trying to lose so they could get a better quarterfinals draw. There's no way a claim, even a fake claim, would be this poorly executed. It's so bad that its goal, which is making the real doctor counter-claim him, simply isn't possible with such a bad claim. So clearly, something is wrong here. This claim, in terms of outing the doctor, doesn't make sense. Nobody would believe him. But Zork is scum--he had to have been doing something. It's so obviously false it was immediately shot down. There's almost no chance the real doctor will counter claim. So what's the purpose of this claim? Look at what happened in the thread three minutes after Zork made his "breadcrumb": On August 04 2012 03:53 JingleHell wrote: Yeah, this is weak as hell, Zork. Show me a real breadcrumb. Something specific, not some Da Vinci Code shit. If that's a town play, it's a bad town play. ##Unvote ##Vote Zorkmid If you can't show a real breadcrumb for the N1 save, this is just desperation. Golly, pretty fast, no? Put on your hats for a second: What if the point of the claim is to give cover for scum to switch their vote? Now let's entertain this theory for a moment, and go digging through Jinglehell's post history. He starts by targeting both me and Keir: Of course, if I'm right about Shady, Keirathi will need to be under the microscope for attempts to head things off before they get into voting territory. Then what happens? Keir gets nightkilled. Then I claim and JH posts on Ange777: + Show Spoiler [Posts on Ange777] + On August 03 2012 01:18 JingleHell wrote: This isn't a defense. You aren't showing me a town motive. You're dismissing a question. That's not a quick read. That's called discussing things and looking for potential slips. It's how I work. Don't like it? Too bad. Frankly, it looks like you're trying to push me into playing differently because you don't like what I said, with an implicit threat to try and get me lynched if I don't do what you want. It's shady as all hell. ##Vote Ange777 Now, if you want to have any hope of my vote changing, you'll explain a town motive for your play regarding myself and Shady, rather than trying to turn things back on me, which is scum behavior. Funny how all of a sudden you don't like the unbiased outsider when he sees something you said as funny. On August 03 2012 03:35 JingleHell wrote: Dear you: You're either trying to get me to answer for the terrible play of the guy I replaced, or asking me to do things I've already explained why I don't want to do. When I ask you what your motive is for something, you both OMGUS me and try to make it sound like I'm the one dropping an OMGUS. Yes, I find that scummy. Start defending yourself. Attacking me does not qualify as a defense. But his accusations on Ange don't get traction, then posts a one liner to justify his vote on GK: You seem awfully convinced that certain people are scum based on flips that haven't happened, and that's kind of an obvious slip. Then flips to vote Mordanis to "counter Ange and GK." So basically no good reason to vote for Mord. This is where things get a little interesting, because around this time, he makes this post: On August 04 2012 00:52 JingleHell wrote: I think that in a game going this well for scum, a direct counter wagon would be incredibly stupid, throwing someone under the bus would be better. At the very least, I think the scum votes are probably split, unless they're completely ignoring their coach, because their coach would be telling them not to risk guilt by association on the entire team when they're doing this well with so many sheep in town. Long story short, it's possible, but I personally find it unlikely due to the incredible level of risk involved, and wouldn't be terribly surprised if both are actually town. First off, there's no need to talk about what scum might or might not be doing in the main thread--that gives scum chances to improve their behavior. Second, he's basically saying that scum are probably split between Mord and Zork, except him and Zork both piled on Mordanis. Unless JingleHell somehow knew that Zork would flip red, why would he make this post? This is almost a defense post from JingleHell, in defense of a red flip (Zorkmid) that hasn't happened yet. Then of course you get that little charade with Zorkmid's fakeclaim and Mordanis immediately calling him out on it. JingleHell feels so eager to make fun of Zork that he ridicules it 3 times in a row: On August 04 2012 04:06 JingleHell wrote: Well, it could be an anagram for a word in a different language, then if we apply some advanced numerology, eat some peyote, and go on a vision quest, we can discern that his "breadcrumb" actually doesn't mean a damn thing. On August 04 2012 04:11 JingleHell wrote: Lol. That one does, sadly, make more sense. And illustrates the hilarity. On August 04 2012 04:16 JingleHell wrote: So much for my tactic of assuming that the guy who sounds like he's smoking some good shit is actually town. But I can't imagine a good townie reason to fakeclaim. Although it is an excellent way to insult the IQ of the entire town? From a town perspective, there's no need to gloat about the fakeclaim at all to justify a vote switch. There's no need to guess about what the scum might or might not be doing in the main thread. There's also no reason to say scum is split or not split when you are voting on the same side that scum is, before you even find out they're scum. There's no reason at all to do any of this... except if you are scum. This was the first scum mistake, town. Treasure it. And if I die tonight, don't let this opportunity go to waste. ##Vote JingleHell | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Then of course you get that little charade with Zorkmid's fakeclaim and Mordanis immediately calling him out on it. JingleHell feels so eager to make fun of Zork that he ridicules it 3 times in a row: EBWOP: Should read: Then of course you get that little charade with Zorkmid's fakeclaim and JingleHell immediately calling him out on it. JingleHell feels so eager to make fun of Zork that he ridicules it 3 times in a row: | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 04 2012 06:48 JingleHell wrote: By the way, answer the following question without managing to sound like a dumbass. Would I also look suspicious if I had not switched votes after that pathetic of a fakeclaim? My bet is yes. Yeah, you started looking suspicious from this post onwards: + Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On August 04 2012 00:52 JingleHell wrote: [QUOTE]On August 04 2012 00:46 Obvious.660 wrote: Hey Jingle, if I may have a moment of your time. I'm about to head out the door for the rest of the day but I wanted to ask you about something. Based on our last game together, you played a fairy suspicious-of-all town and weren't abashed of moving on to better targets as they sprung up. My question to you is this: do you not find it more suspicious than the situation you are looking at with Ange that Zorkmid has come under fire recently and the town is suddenly super active? This Mord case seems like a direct counter-wagon to Zork, the kind that appears when scum is close to getting lynched. Given that Mord has been under vague suspicions since the beginning of the game, don't you think it's fair that you take a good shake at voicing at least your own opinion on the case I and others have been making against Zork? Ange may be suspicious and all but you can see for yourself that there are bigger fish to deal with today. I'm leaving for about 13 hours right after this post it's just something that occurred to me overnight trying to fall asleep. [/QUOTE] I think that in a game going this well for scum, a direct counter wagon would be incredibly stupid, throwing someone under the bus would be better. At the very least, I think the scum votes are probably split, unless they're completely ignoring their coach, because their coach would be telling them not to risk guilt by association on the entire team when they're doing this well with so many sheep in town. But the fakeclaim switch, you just looked much, much worse. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
When I get some more time tonight (after dinner), I'll be looking through their posting histories as well. We got this, town--two more to go. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 04 2012 09:17 Ange777 wrote: Hey guys, sorry I missed the deadline but we finally lynched scum! Good job  I only quickly skimmed through and what I saw proves me right in my case against scum Jingle. It starts here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=38#752 If there are any doubts, I strongly urge you to go back and re-read that post and the following conversation with Jingle. Furthermore Shady did an awesome case on Jingle and explained the motive for that more than obvious fake claim pretty well. It's after 2 am now, so I'll be off to bed. I will definitely be back before deadline to give my read for the remaining scum besides Jingle. Welcome back, please don't miss votes like that again... makes me a sad townie. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 04 2012 14:07 Shady Sands wrote: Welcome back, please don't miss votes like that again... makes me a sad townie. That being said, thanks a ton for starting the train on Zork. Clears you as a second confirmed townie in my eyes, since I think it would be exceedingly unlikely for scum to bus their own when they were doing so well. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 04 2012 07:07 Shady Sands wrote: So returning to the theory that scum were bandwagoned together on Mord lynch, that leaves aRyuujin and alan133 as the other possible suspects. When I get some more time tonight (after dinner), I'll be looking through their posting histories as well. We got this, town--two more to go. Ok, so here are my reads on aRyuujin and alan133. I think both are scummy, but still within the "reasonable doubt" category. Can't call for a lynch on them yet. aRyuujin is lurky. His post count is less than half of Keir's, even though Keir got nightkilled over 48 hours ago. But we can't go off post counts alone. His few "content" posts have been tight, logical, but mostly rehash of what other people have already posted. + Show Spoiler + On August 02 2012 11:24 aRyuujin wrote: I'm suspicious of Mordanis now, mainly because of the sudden shift in his play. Initially, he's really into scum hunting. He's a somewhat controversial figure, but people seem to believe he's a town player, begins he's quite active in scumhunting. However, as soon as day 2 begins, he suddenly begins to quiet down. Even more important than the lack of posts is the sudden change in the posts themselves: Initially: . Quotes like this show how he behaves decisively, voting on the spot. Now, let's look at his recent behavior: His discussion about prome: Here, he's behaving in a way that contrasts greatly with his previous actions. He no longer is the decisive scum hunter. Now, he's merely confused. This continues on to here, where he votes. Once more, however, he's markedly different from the active townie persona he portrayed earlier. Also important to note is the change in activity. Previously, he was one of the most active contributors. Now, he's slid down the scale quite a bit (content wise, he still has more fluff posts). However, this reasoning isn't nearly as solid, because he might just be more busy. Coupled with the change in behavior, however, I'm led to believe that ... Mordanis has changed because he wants to avoid scum slips. This happens a lot, where a very 'loud' player all of a sudden quiets down or changes suddenly. And it's oftentimes because they want to avoid a scum slip. Therefore, I'm ##FoS Mordanis. On July 28 2012 14:28 aRyuujin wrote: ebwop wow, in between my composing that post and posting it, Golbat has pitched in. I'm now somewhat worried that a bandwagon will form regarding me, as I won't have time to post in the morning, and may be busy probably past the deadline. Therefore, I will now sort of address Golbat's reasons for voting me: He says (referring to me): Note that I've stopped posting in haikus, so that shouldn't be a reason to vote me anymore. More seriously, this is one of the reasons I stopped posting in haikus- I was having trouble conveying my points clearly. Golbat goes on to say, Basically, he decides to defend mrmedic randomly, despite even saying he's basically a lurker. (Note that goodkarma's primary reason for why i'm scum is that I'm a lurker). I'm not really sure why he believes this part of the post shows that I'm scum. Next, our good friend the pokemon says, He says my reasoning is weak, and provides one example, that I say I might not vote for him. I FoS'd him, but I'm not gonna vote that early, no intelligent player would. Later on, he does the same exact thing that he says is so bad,. Noting that your vote is not set in stone is NOT a reliable scum tell. Finally, he agrees with me. w00t. Really, the whole case on me seems kind of silly. Because earlier, when people did not provide their posting schedule, it annoyed some guys, I'll reinforce the fact that I will 90% not even look at the thread before 5-6 my time, 1-2 hours after the adjusted schedule tomorrow. (Super busy day) glhf town On July 28 2012 14:02 aRyuujin wrote: Last post for the night @Keir: yeah, I'll stop haikus lol @goodkarma: You're still the only one who believes I'm scum, and you're definitely entitled to your opinion. However, it seems like you made up your mind that I'm scum before you found any legit evidence, just to show that you contribute, and are just cherry picking random junk to back you up. You say, However, darthpunk isn't coming after you, he's pointing out that you're not contributing. When you say It seems as if you're accusing Keirathi and DP as Mafia as well. (they're bailing me out?) Now, let's think about this for a minute. If you lynched me, and I flipped red, the obvious step would be to lynch them. What kind of real mafia would defend scum with such little lynch threat? Though you say that If you lynched me, and I flipped green, then town is no better off than before. This whole tangent does NOT show that Darthpunk or Keir are red OR green, and any reasoning you try to do based on my green flip (assuming there's nothing insane posted) is pretty much WIFOM. @Darthpunk: I'm hesitant to take suspicion off of golbat, mainly because claiming inexperience is a HUGE scum trait. He has spent a tremendous amount of time doing 2 things: a)Changing his mind b)talking about his noobiness Those are two big scum tells because the first makes it look like he contributes without actually contributing (i tried to mention it earlier, but haikus are difficult to convey thoughts through), and the second helps play away scum tells. (Oh, that (referencing scum moves) doesn't help? I thought it did... etc.) @Mordanis: I probably jumped on your Shady bandwagon too soon. If someone lies at this point, though, and we can prove it, I definitely believe they are target number 1. I doubt I'll be posting in time again for the deadline, therefore it's important that I vote here: I'm voting Golbat because of the 2 reasons I mention previously: He spends most of his time changing his mind/talking about how noob he is. ##vote Golbat Ever since the Golbat lynch aRyu has only made one real post of content. Of course, he was lurky on D1 too, so lurking D2 doesn't tell us much. However, this is exactly how Zorkmid played. Overall, though, I can't mark him for a lynch yet. And with JingleHell in the bag, there's no real hurry to. Moving on to Alan133. He's written a lot (over 10 long posts), so I'm not going to spoiler and copy/paste all of it. Here's the filter if anyone's interested. The general vibe I get is that he isn't scum, but rather someone who prefers to build up clues rather than point fingers quickly at someone, which is something that I think this town needs a little bit more of (especially after two mislynches.) Also, he at least is digging up a lot of clues. Even if he's being slightly WIFOM-y, he's still more valuable than aRyu, and a much less scummy read than JingleHell. aRyuujin leans red. Alan133 leans green. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
I think both are scummy, but still within the "reasonable doubt" category. Can't call for a lynch on them yet. This should read: I think aRyuu is scummy, but still within the "reasonable doubt" category. Can't call for a lynch on him yet. Leaning town on Alan133. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 04 2012 07:09 JingleHell wrote: If you think that statement is suspicious, I can't help you much. It's merely conventional wisdom. If scum is doing strong overall, having the entire scumteam piled up to try and save someone is a bad idea. Actually, it is a good idea if the scum can force a no-lynch and town is being WIFOM-y. The latter point, unfortunately, is true. With the former point, I think the Mordanis hit squad was pretty close to forcing a no-lynch at one point, and you yourself even tried to vote for two fairly weak leads (GK and Mordanis) to "counter" the votes of players you thought scummy. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 04 2012 17:15 alan133 wrote: Just woke up, good job getting scum! @Jingle Why did I not vote for Zork Because Mordanis has not answered my case against him, and I don't think it is entirely OMGUS and has some valid point in it. Disagree if you want, but at that moment I think Mordanis is than Zork. + Show Spoiler [Alan133] + On August 04 2012 07:41 JingleHell wrote: Also, look through Zorkmid's filter. If you'll notice, there's one person who swapped even later than I did, who even I suspect, who Zorkmid NEVER seemed to be interested in, despite this player being in the game the whole time. That's Alan. Zork was never really interested in anyone except for maybe GoodKarma, if I was not wrong? Zork's "breadcrumb". Judging from the content of the breadcrumb and the location of the post he quoted for the breadcrumb, it is obvious to me this is a scum trying to take down a blue with him. Alan starts by wanting to discuss tons of policy. Link If you noticed that was my first post, and it was fairly early in the game with little scum hunting going on. Huge WIFOM, no commitment. Link I said him starting the scum hunting is a huge townie trait for him, suggest it could be WIFOMed into saying it has scum motivation, but I did not use them in my argument. Wishy Washy on Golbat, creates distance from a mislynch. Link I defended Golbat and push for Shady lynch. I believe Shady is scum while Golbat is playing badly as a newbie town, so I am pushing for a Shady lynch. The "creating distance" is another fantasy of yours. Defends Zork lightly. Link I thought Zork's angry reaction was a town trait. I made my stance on him based on that. Kisses up a little, and references a game where out of several cases made, I only had a 50% scum lynch record. Link I was following that game because I missed it, and my impression was you caught the first scum. Scum was in a fairly strong position right now and I was hoping you to tip the balance. OMGUS against Mord Link I don't think this is entirely OMGUS. My case on him was not based on my own speculation or fantasies. It is based on reading his filter in general, and the small things that I picked up along the way. How about stating a townie motivation for:
1) Good reads on JingleHell. I missed the attempts to save Zork, although in Jingle's defense some people did it too. I'd look at MrMedic's posts/lurky play from D1 as well. Would like to Jingle try and defend that. 2) Why is JingleHell accusing you? His post makes no overall sense. All he did is list a bunch of your old posts with 3 word indicators of scummy play. The thing is, he could draw that sort of conclusion about anyone--including Ange, his previous target (and someone who is pretty much confirmed town at this point.) He gives no holistic reasoning as to why he dropped Ange, either. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 04 2012 19:36 Mordanis wrote: GOGOGOGOGO Town!! @SS Before I begin, I want to question how you can praise Ange (when she even took inspiration from GK, so if you're looking for the first suspicion D3 against Zork, its GK) for her case + call her confirmed townie and condemn me for "leading a hit squad that almost forced a no-lynch"? You're making me sad TT... Also, the fact that so many people are convinced that scum wouldn't bus one of their one at this point means that it was probably the best play for them, regardless of what really happened. I'm not willing to dismiss any sort of bussing yet. The phrase "Mordanis hit squad" referred to the hit squad that was targetted at you. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
1) Scum need to look like they're trying to catch scum. On August 04 2012 06:43 JingleHell wrote: You are, in fact, aware it's night, yes shady? If you actually think that's what happened, feel free to lead a mislynch on me and feel like an idiot for discounting what I just contributed against GK and alan. I was asked to replace in, for some unknown reason, and frankly I think Marv would have done better to A town like this losing faster would be a huge improvement over subjecting a replacement to it. 2) Scum make up excuses to claim that they found someone suspicious. These excuses can be found using common sense. + Show Spoiler [JH's "case" on Alan] + On August 04 2012 06:07 JingleHell wrote: This came 5 hours before your vote. I voted late too, but I wasn't sold until the pathetic fakeclaim. You wanted to vote for him so bloody much but waited 5 hours anyway. On August 04 2012 07:41 JingleHell wrote: Also, look through Zorkmid's filter. If you'll notice, there's one person who swapped even later than I did, who even I suspect, who Zorkmid NEVER seemed to be interested in, despite this player being in the game the whole time. That's Alan. Alan starts by wanting to discuss tons of policy. Link Huge WIFOM, no commitment. Link Wishy Washy on Golbat, creates distance from a mislynch. Link Defends Zork lightly. Link Kisses up a little, and references a game where out of several cases made, I only had a 50% scum lynch record. Link OMGUS against Mord Link If you really think I'm the next best lynch, well... I'm probably not. I switched at a point where there was no way to avoid suspicion. Please don't make a case revolve around that, as it leads towards confirmation bias. Alan is saying things which are perfectly townish which JingleHell is trying to twist into scummy play. Yes, Alan switched to Zork after the fakeclaim. But he didn't use the fakeclaim as the excuse for the switch. That's the scumslip we're focusing on. The only accusation that is logically consistent here is that Alan is WIFOM-y. At this point half the town is WIFOM-y. It's not good to lynch based on that alone. 3) Scum try to look suspicious of someone that is in no danger of being lynched so they are uninvolved with the lynch of a townie. See this part of the quote above: Also, look through Zorkmid's filter. If you'll notice, there's one person who swapped even later than I did, who even I suspect, who Zorkmid NEVER seemed to be interested in, despite this player being in the game the whole time. That's Alan. And this (note how GK only had 1 vote on him at this point): On August 04 2012 01:07 JingleHell wrote: Ok, trying to say "You're next because you don't agree with me", when there's not some sort of rock solid evidence... You're right, I've been too stubborn. People aren't ready to vote for Ange. ##Unvote ##Vote GK You seem awfully convinced that certain people are scum based on flips that haven't happened, and that's kind of an obvious slip. 4) Scum acknowledges the logical conclusions of others, but discounts them using ad hominems or indirect arguments. On August 04 2012 22:44 JingleHell wrote: I'm going to try and get this concept through people's skulls one more time. My reasoning for suspecting Ange was not for any specific thing he said. It was for the timing of asking me to post cases on people besides Shady, followed by immediately adding evidence to the case against Shady. It looked like an effort to give me a confirmation bias. I was asking about motives. Not about semantics. (Granted, semantics seems to be the only thing you people understand) This is the last time I attempt to defend that. At this point, any townies who aren't sheeping on scum have a healthy dose of their own confirmation bias, so I feel no need to continue arguing with a brick wall. I switched at a point where there was no way to avoid suspicion. Please don't make a case revolve around that, as it leads towards confirmation bias. 5) If a scum player is about to be lynched and other scum know it, the other scum will try to distance themselves from that player. + Show Spoiler [JingleHell's posts on Zork] + On August 04 2012 03:53 JingleHell wrote: Yeah, this is weak as hell, Zork. Show me a real breadcrumb. Something specific, not some Da Vinci Code shit. If that's a town play, it's a bad town play. ##Unvote ##Vote Zorkmid If you can't show a real breadcrumb for the N1 save, this is just desperation. On August 04 2012 04:06 JingleHell wrote: Well, it could be an anagram for a word in a different language, then if we apply some advanced numerology, eat some peyote, and go on a vision quest, we can discern that his "breadcrumb" actually doesn't mean a damn thing. On August 04 2012 04:11 JingleHell wrote: Lol. That one does, sadly, make more sense. And illustrates the hilarity. On August 04 2012 04:16 JingleHell wrote: So much for my tactic of assuming that the guy who sounds like he's smoking some good shit is actually town. But I can't imagine a good townie reason to fakeclaim. Although it is an excellent way to insult the IQ of the entire town? No one else does all this. Only JH. JH is the loud scum who has enough wiggle room to play loud because he was a D2 replacement. Lynch him. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
4) Scum acknowledges the logical conclusions of others, but discounts them using ad hominems or indirect arguments. Now I'm going to repeat what JingleHell just posted in response: On August 05 2012 04:53 JingleHell wrote: Actually, I'd look scummy no matter what because I wasn't NKed as a replacement. Given that there's literally no way to post without it being possible to WIFOM it into being scummy, and you're operating based on confirmation bias, instead of reading what I've said objectively, I'm just going to watch the flock fail hard. Post something that isn't some convoluted acid trip that there's no way to defend against, and I'll post a defense. This is as close as it gets without the mod telling us. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 05 2012 06:03 JingleHell wrote: Well, whoever RBed me seems to have failed to stop the NK. Good job. Because obviously in a town of 13, we would have 3 scum, 1 medic, 2 masons, AND a roleblocker. Gee, that's realistic. Anyhow, very glad that scum was not able to find the medic. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 05 2012 06:24 Mordanis wrote: I began the JINGLE game by writing a sonnet, I'm leaving the game 6 ft under in a coffin. At first the scum seemed to have a W16 under their bonnet, But town has proved to have the intellectual power of a boffin. At first things seemed so grim HELL, but now they are so so bright! So fill with hope your hearts to the brim if you're town; If you're scum, your hope should be slight. You're all so IS incredibly smart, Scum have no chance of taking this game. Town: you can get this game for $4.99 at KMart, Scum, for you I can't say the same. Though I must leave you all now, take courage For I will be with you in spirit always. And eat your porridge. SCUM + Show Spoiler + I've been given permission to point out that the rhyme scheme is abab cdcd efef gg Guys, Mordanis was breadcrumbing us the whole time. After Zork tipped us off to this steganographic technique, I have found a clue. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 05 2012 06:31 Ange777 wrote: @Shady: Maybe scum was trying to kill the medic instead of WIFOMing who the medic would save. I mean both of us thought we might die this night. Fair enough. Once JingleHell is lynched and the next Night cycle is over, I'd recommend the medic roleclaiming. Between you, the medic, and me, then we'd have 3 confirmed townies vs 1 mafia in a town of 6. And since in a situation like that it'd be suicidal for the mafia to counterclaim, then there'd be no chance someone could mislynch medic. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 05 2012 18:26 alan133 wrote: @Ange Yes, I am leaning towards a scum Jingle for the same reasons. His shift his FOS towards me seems like a desperation move to shift the focus away from himself. I think even a townie Jingle would be more careful when he suggest a new lynch, as the town's goal is to lynch scum, not just to survive. I went through aRyu's filter once and did not come out with anything else that has not been said about him already. I think his lurkiness is generally anti-town, so I did not put it in my post. @aRyu I went through the filter again and I thought I should share something I found. It is a bit WIFOM: + Show Spoiler + aRyuujin/MrMedic Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. Mr Medic comes to mind For these reasons too His first content post he looks he's saying stuff showing fallacies He's bandwagoning and his analysis makes little sense if you understand how mordanis was posting those were 3 what-ifs false contribution and his confusing posts lead me to believe that he's either a bad town, or a mafioso backup vote's on him Here seems like aRyu is kicking MrMedic(Jingle's predecessor) out for sheeping on DP. Ignoring WIFOM, it is unlikely scum aRyu and scum MrMedic (now Jingle) interacts publicly in such a manner in such an early stage. I would say if one of them is scum, the other is kind of cleared. I am not saying both can't be town (or with WIFOM, scum), but it won't make sense if both are town, unless there is some ballsy bussing maneuver going on in day 3. @DarthPunk The conclusion I made above convinced me DarthPunk is the potential last scum, given that no bussing occurred. I went through his huge filter and was hoping to find one slip that can nail him, and have yet to find anything substantial. His blatant defences on Zorkmid is definitely scum motivated, and I know I also "defended" zorkmid, I hope you all see that I have been consistent with defending people who I thought was being called out for the wrong reasons. I would like to put my vote on VOTE## JingleHell, and FOS## DarthPunk. I believe we got this in the bag  On August 05 2012 18:26 alan133 wrote: @Ange Yes, I am leaning towards a scum Jingle for the same reasons. His shift his FOS towards me seems like a desperation move to shift the focus away from himself. I think even a townie Jingle would be more careful when he suggest a new lynch, as the town's goal is to lynch scum, not just to survive. I went through aRyu's filter once and did not come out with anything else that has not been said about him already. I think his lurkiness is generally anti-town, so I did not put it in my post. @aRyu I went through the filter again and I thought I should share something I found. It is a bit WIFOM: + Show Spoiler + aRyuujin/MrMedic Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. Mr Medic comes to mind For these reasons too His first content post he looks he's saying stuff showing fallacies He's bandwagoning and his analysis makes little sense if you understand how mordanis was posting those were 3 what-ifs false contribution and his confusing posts lead me to believe that he's either a bad town, or a mafioso backup vote's on him Here seems like aRyu is kicking MrMedic(Jingle's predecessor) out for sheeping on DP. Ignoring WIFOM, it is unlikely scum aRyu and scum MrMedic (now Jingle) interacts publicly in such a manner in such an early stage. I would say if one of them is scum, the other is kind of cleared. I am not saying both can't be town (or with WIFOM, scum), but it won't make sense if both are town, unless there is some ballsy bussing maneuver going on in day 3. @DarthPunk The conclusion I made above convinced me DarthPunk is the potential last scum, given that no bussing occurred. I went through his huge filter and was hoping to find one slip that can nail him, and have yet to find anything substantial. His blatant defences on Zorkmid is definitely scum motivated, and I know I also "defended" zorkmid, I hope you all see that I have been consistent with defending people who I thought was being called out for the wrong reasons. I would like to put my vote on VOTE## JingleHell, and FOS## DarthPunk. I believe we got this in the bag I'm in fair agreement with this, although I lean a bit more strongly to aRyuu than Darth. I think that between the three of them here are the two scum. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 06 2012 05:33 Ange777 wrote: @Jingle: Still playing this game? I think he ragequit. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 06 2012 07:10 Ange777 wrote: So if you have been avidly following my conversation with DarthPunk you will probably have realized we don't really see eye to eye. Now I am going to give him another reason to disagree with me. I am proposing to lynch DarthPunk first instead of Jingle. You might think that it does seem like an aweful OMGUS vote after I have been vividly arguing with DarthPunk but OMGUS isn't about WHO you vote, it's about HOW you vote them. A vote is only OMGUS if you're voting them BECAUSE they voted you. If you vote them for a well-thought-out reason, even if they also voted you, then it's not OMGUS. Let's first go through the reasons why I wanted to vote him anyway: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=48#945 1. During the Zork lynch discussion DarthPunk repeatedly soft-defended Zork, pushed Mordanis as lynch candidate and proposed to lynch aRyuujin instead of Zork. 2. He switches votes very conveniently at around the same time when Zork fake claims medic. I believe that scum decided in their QT to concede to the Zork lynch. Instead of really defending himself against my accusations DarthPunk makes a huge WIFOM explanation and decides to paint me scummy by saying I set him up with a trap. He denies me any kind of town motivation for pointing out Zork's scumslip. Yet he was happy to give Zork the benefit of doubt until last minute even though many people pointed out his scum behaviour. I see a clear scum motivation for his behaviour: 1. Save Zork and mislynch Mordanis (or aRyuujin at least) instead 2. When there is no way to save Zork, switch the vote before Zork's claim to get a bit of town cred 3. Discredit me as I am the most active power behind his lynch and mislynch me instead With him being called out as scum by several people DarthPunk is just flailing around desperately trying to shift the attention to someone, anyone besides himself. He didn't even give us any other reads besides me. I can only repeat it: This is no pro town play! DarthPunk, I'd really like to congratulate you for writing the best case on yourself -> your own filter! So why lynch DarthPunk before Jingle? After all this discussion I am even more convinced of him being scum than I am of Jingle. I made the case on Jingle because there was no town motivation for his awful play. If he isn't just simply bad he must be scum. However this case against DarthPunk is based on his clear scum motivation and not based on the lack of town motivation. To make it clear: If I am 99% convinced that Jingle is scum, than I am 100% convinced that DarthPunk is scum. In my opinion we can not let him get away with this! ##Unvote ##Vote DarthPunk While Ange has put up an excellent case on Darth, I think we'll have a far easier time building consensus on a JingleHell lynch than on a Darth lynch. Darth and aRyuujin both fall into the "scummy, but not yet scum" bucket for me (and several other people), while JingleHell is a clear scum for nearly everyone. Given that we'll need 5/6 of the town to agree to lynch someone, I'd suggest we go for JingleHell, since "one in the hand beats two in the bush." Ange, I hope you can understand this. That being said though, my read on Darth has gotten scummier as I've looked more closely at the Mordanis nightkill. Why nightkill Mordanis? He was nowhere near to being confirmed town, given how much quieter he'd become since D1, and how both his targets on D1--Golbat and me, as well as his Prox targetting D2--flipped blue/green. He also didn't seem like the doctor--I'll get more reasons into that later, once the second scum is dead (I don't want to endanger who I think is the doctor.) Then the reason comes about through two things: 1) Mordanis was either onto a mafia during the Night 3 discussions and/or 2) Scum *thought* Mordanis was confirmed town. Mord was levying a bunch of mediocre accusations at Darthpunk during Night 3, but even so, I don't think point 1 is the main point. The real thing is that if scum were both wagoned in on Mordanis, then to them, there were only 2 other town votes that "bought their story". Therefore there in their eyes, Mordanis does look like confirmed town. Because of those 2 points, my read on Darth shifts to being much more scummy than originally so. Not all the way yet, as I think no one in this thread is as scummy as JingleHell (and hence no one is more deserving of a lynch)--but a fair amount. Darth's got some hard work ahead of him if he wants to stave off a lynch. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 06 2012 10:28 JingleHell wrote: I'm entirely amused that playing LoL for the day turns me into a ragequit, in a game where there's literally no point in me trying to defend myself, because unless a scum attacking me claims scum, the tunnel won't get off me. By the way, DarthPunk... much as I appreciate the vote of confidence, claiming you have a townread on me at this point makes me wonder if you're setting people up to look bad after I flip. What happened to your long case on Alan? You don't think he's guilty anymore? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 06 2012 11:25 JingleHell wrote: Are they mutually exclusive? Is there a problem with seeing something as being a scumslip? Even if you people are too busy wallowing in your WIFOM and confirmation bias about me to see it, DarthPunk seems to be preparing town to sheep him after I flip green. But you just pretty much tossed your entire case on Alan133 out the window and posted a one-liner statement on Darthpunk. That might make sense for an ##unvote, but you went ahead and voted Darthpunk anyhow. That's really wierd. If you're so hell-bent on proving that you're a contributing townie, why don't you build a longer case on Darthpunk before telling town to "flail around and die" once you get lynched? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 06 2012 12:21 JingleHell wrote: I'm not hellbent on proving anything. I'm pointing to something scummy as hell. If you don't think it's suspicious now, you might later, if I get lynched, since I'll flip green. I actually already gave up on proving my innocence, if you were too thick to figure that out. Something to do with the fact that anything and everything I do gets subjected to such a ludicrous level of WIFOM that it's a waste of time and energy. If you want to see my case against Alan, you can go re-read the one I already posted that nobody was interested in seeing. If you want to see a new case against him, go make one. A confirmed townie who sheeps and refuses to think is the best thing that can happen to scum, so don't expect me to ask "How high" when you say "Jump", you're a detriment to the rest of us. First, it was scummy that I wasn't making a case against every single person in the game, including the dead ones. Now it's scummy that I'm looking at everyone. Make up your damn minds, or lynch me, which, I'm sure, will be followed by convincing yourselves it was my fault so you don't have to address your inability to think critically. Look. You still haven't answered my question yet. Why are you suspicious of DP? What is scummy? Is it just his defense of you alone? It's day 4. If you want to make a vote, you need to present a better case than a one-liner. I saw your play in XXI. You're better than this. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 06 2012 13:21 JingleHell wrote: If you saw my play in XXI, you know that something exactly like this is how I got a scum lynched. Do me a favor, and don't tell me how to play, when everything I've said to now has been blown off anyways. It would be better all around if confirmed townies would try to make cases, instead of looking for chances to sheep. I already explained what's scummy, it's the fact that he's laying the groundwork for people leading a case against me to look like scum after I flip green. How? Let's say you flip green--what could DP say to make people leading a case against you look like scum? And how are you so sure the people who are leading a case against you aren't scum? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
DP opens up on Ange after Ange attacks Jingle DP says he is not sure of JingleHell's scumminess Jingle thinks DP is trying to build towncred if Jingle flips green aRyuujin posts explaining his dual-scenario case (Zork/Jingle/DP vs Zork/DP/Alan) Before night begins, I want everyone who hasn't posted on this lynch yet to get their 2 cents in. While I think Jingle is scum, that doesn't mean he's wrong when he says a lot of us have sheeped on lynches over the past few cycles in this game. So I'd like to ask each townie to please, please make a post explaining their vote clearly before committing to it. I'll reiterate that my read on JH is based on how Zork's fakeclaim seemed designed to give him cover to switch the vote, how JH seemed to have premonitions that Zork would flip red while still voting Mordanis for no good reason whatsoever, and finally how his reaction to the accusations failed the "5 key characteristics of scum" test. As for why I'm voting JH now as opposed to going with DP now and JH later, I will say it's because knocking out JH and another night cycle will clear up a lot of doubt between DP and aRyuujin (who I still believe are the strongest candidates for the 3rd scum at the moment.) Finally, given that those 2 scenarios that aRyuujin listed above are the 2 major possibilities, then why not lynch JH today so we can exonerate (or not exonerate) Alan? Under that set of scenarios, lynching DP today, and having him flip town, would tell us less than JH flipping red/green. ## Vote JingleHell Everyone please write your reasons out for the vote. But also remember that we need 5 out of 6 townies for a lynch and a lynch is critical. Don't WIFOM. Don't call for more time to analyze. Drive towards a conclusion. But please, please state your own reasons. Thank you. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Alan Obvious Ange Darth--him especially Thanks all and let's get this rolling. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 06 2012 22:47 DarthPunk wrote: And by bad case I mean he deliberately ignores everything I say and puts a negative spin on it in a way that he doesn't really have to address anything I have said. You mention this is my first defense post? you have got to be kidding right? I am no longer interested in arguing with you. It is clear you are not interested in the truth but rather will post mountains of rubbish in order to further your agenda. One thing though. In your post you are very eager to point out that ange777 is confirmed town. I know what is happening here. If others don't I apologise that my defense was inadequate. HOWEVER. I encourage everyone to read through my filter. hopefully the truth will reveal itself. If I am mislynched. plz lynch Ange and aRyuujin. PLEASE! @ DP Two things here. 1) This point of view is not good: That being said. I will continue to post cases and defend myself but I am sheeping shadys vote no matter what this cycle. If shady votes for me I will vote for myself etc. The reason for this is that the situation is bad at the moment. a mess really. I will sheep the vote of the confirmed town. Whilst still contributing as much as possible. This sets a bad example for the rest of town. 2) Don't OMGUS Ange/aRyuujin. First off, because I think that the three of your accusers (Ange, aRyu, and Obvious) have totally different levels of scumminess, and second, because OMGUS at this stage in the game is extremely anti-town play. That being said, though, I would like to see Alan put up his argument and make his vote before committing to a vote between Jingle and DP. I think the best scenario for town (and worst for scum) would be to have confirmed town make the final deciding vote. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Right now my scumlist is basically JingleHell and aRyuu. Not only because of JingleHell's posting behavior, but because of MrMedic as well. aRyuu and Zork were the only ones that never called out MrMedic for being the most AFK player ever (even missing votes). GK, Ange, Darth, myself, Prome, Keir, and Mord all called out MrMedic but those two never did. Strange. There are a few more I'm looking at, but right now I think JH is our best lynch. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 00:18 JingleHell wrote: So MrMedic was "lurking" to the point of getting fucking replaced and that convinces you of my guilt? You somehow think that makes me look scummier than the person who is blatantly setting things up to direct things after my mislynch? DP clearly has foreknowledge of how I'm going to flip. And here's a WIFOM filled hypothetical for you, since you like those. Think about this. If I flipped red, which I know I won't, DP would be tomorrow's lynch for attempting to defend me. At least according to precedent. If I flip green, which I will, DP has foreknowledge of how I'll flip and is trying to make people who target me look scummy, which is scum behavior. In BOTH scenarios, no matter what you assume about my alignment, DP is scummy. However, in only ONE of those scenarios am I scummy, and if he gets me mislynched before he dies, he's still alive, can still try to get someone else lynched later, and there's less townies to fight for a majority. Lynching me first can ONLY benefit scum. Yeah, you have a point here. So let's see what DP has to say about your presumed innocence. And DP, if you think JH is innocent, please don't sheep me and vote for him. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 00:28 aRyuujin wrote: Wait a minute. I actually accused MrMedic with my first game related post. And let's be frank: You can IN NO WAY infer from MrMedic AFKing so hardcore that he was replaced that he is scum. If anything, there's more of chance of him getting bored and leaving if he was VT than if he had a more exciting role. But even that is too silly to be brought up as a serious point. He probably forgot about the game, or got bored, or something. He got replaced. Do you really expect that he's some genius who planned out his replacement as a way to win? Despite how annoying JH is being lately, I actually agree with this post (or rather he agrees with me) [+ Show Spoiler + QUOTE]On August 07 2012 00:18 JingleHell wrote: On August 06 2012 23:53 Shady Sands wrote: EBWOP: Just saw that alan is already committed to JingleHell, as is DP. Ange, let's vote JingleHell tonight. I'm still not sold on DP's guilt (or innocence). Right now my scumlist is basically JingleHell and aRyuu. Not only because of JingleHell's posting behavior, but because of MrMedic as well. aRyuu and Zork were the only ones that never called out MrMedic for being the most AFK player ever (even missing votes). GK, Ange, Darth, myself, Prome, Keir, and Mord all called out MrMedic but those two never did. Strange. There are a few more I'm looking at, but right now I think JH is our best lynch. So MrMedic was "lurking" to the point of getting fucking replaced and that convinces you of my guilt? You somehow think that makes me look scummier than the person who is blatantly setting things up to direct things after my mislynch? DP clearly has foreknowledge of how I'm going to flip. And here's a WIFOM filled hypothetical for you, since you like those. Think about this. If I flipped red, which I know I won't, DP would be tomorrow's lynch for attempting to defend me. At least according to precedent. If I flip green, which I will, DP has foreknowledge of how I'll flip and is trying to make people who target me look scummy, which is scum behavior. In BOTH scenarios, no matter what you assume about my alignment, DP is scummy. However, in only ONE of those scenarios am I scummy, and if he gets me mislynched before he dies, he's still alive, can still try to get someone else lynched later, and there's less townies to fight for a majority. Lynching me first can ONLY benefit scum. He basically says something similar about Medic's lurking, and agrees with my phat post where I outlined the two possibilities (Z/DP/Alan vs Z/DP/JH) Shady, I think you're in danger of not seeing the big picture here. We know DP is 100% mafia. We know JH is 99% mafia. Let's not make the 1% risk and go with DP first.[/QUOTE] In light of both Alan's and aRyuu's posts, I'm going to switch my vote to Darth. I think Darth is scum for one simple reason: Jingle is behaving in an extremely scummy fashion. No one, not even Ange, who started the scum train on Darth, is saying that Jingle is not scum. But Darth goes out and says Jingle is townie. Now, in the off chance that Jingle is town, how could Darth know that Jingle is town? The only way Darth could know that Jingle is town is because Darth himself is scum and can do process of elimination. ## Unvote JingleHell ## Vote Darthpunk | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 00:50 DarthPunk wrote: The post in which I explain why I think jingle is town is in here. I don't see why it is difficult for you to believe. anyway regardless of who flips green out of jingle and I. can someone please lynch the ange train. then we have this in the bag. You say in your post above two things to justify your Jingle town read: 1) Jingle is AFK and an easy lynch 2) Jingle is the victim of similar traps that have been placed on you. Point 1 doesn't make sense. Point 2 is too general. What traps have been placed on Jingle AND you? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 00:53 DarthPunk wrote: EBWOP: It is pretty obvious to me that if something that happened to you has also happened to another, you are both town. or the most meta WIFOM ever is going on. What happened to both Jingle and you? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 01:04 DarthPunk wrote: Point to is the relevant point to this situation I think. Ange777 tried to lay a trap on jingle the first day Jingle called her on it and that was that was the beginning of their argument. Ange777 then tried to connect jingle and zork BEFORE ZORK FLIPPED RED due to jingle attacking ange777. even though this started hours before hand this was trap 2 At this same time. Ange kept trying to bait reasons why I thought her case was weaker than mine. She then turns this around and calls me out for soft defending zork. even though she initiated the discussion. Trap 1 She then several times today in this thread asked me leading questions and then immediately takes the answers SHE SOUGHT FOR and used them as EVIDENCE. trap trap trap. the same pattern between myself and jingle of setting up predictable responses to leading questions and then using the answers as EVIDENCE. jingle called her out on it immediately. I was stupid enough to fall for it. But if I am being trapped by ange777 and jingle is. then it stands to reason that we are both town. I am tired and it may not have come out well. but this is all in my filter. which is why I wanted people to read it before making claims that have been covered at length. Let me break this down for you: Ange777 tried to lay a trap on jingle the first day Jingle called her on it and that was that was the beginning of their argument What was the trap? What did Jingle say to call her out? . Ange777 then tried to connect jingle and zork BEFORE ZORK FLIPPED RED due to jingle attacking ange777. even though this started hours before hand this was trap 2 This is called reading a "Chainsaw defense", where when someone defends a scum by attacking their attacker is probably also scum themselves. At this same time. Ange kept trying to bait reasons why I thought her case was weaker than mine. She then turns this around and calls me out for soft defending zork. even though she initiated the discussion. Again, reading a chainsaw defense. Trap 1 She then several times today in this thread asked me leading questions and then immediately takes the answers SHE SOUGHT FOR and used them as EVIDENCE. trap trap trap. That's not trapping, that's good townie work. Answering questions shouldn't automatically exonerate you of guilt. the same pattern between myself and jingle of setting up predictable responses to leading questions and then using the answers as EVIDENCE. jingle called her out on it immediately. I was stupid enough to fall for it. But if I am being trapped by ange777 and jingle is. then it stands to reason that we are both town. That's not called setting up a predictable response. That's more akin to approaching the situation with a hypothesis. Basically, after Ange's brave read and lynch on Zork, I'm almost 99% certain that he (she? not sure) is town. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 01:30 DarthPunk wrote: I know better than to try and alter your convictions when you have something stuck in your head. So i will leave it at I agree to disagree. Why are you doing this for JingleHell, but spent so much time arguing against aRyuujin and Ange? If you're convinced that aRyuu and Ange are scum, then shouldn't you be abandoning/ignoring them, and trying to persuade JingleHell? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 04:44 Ange777 wrote: Back home. Catching up. Ange, just for your benefit, here are the big plays that have happened: I shifted my vote to DP, because I don't see how he could know Jingle is town without knowing everyone's alignments through being mafia. Alan reaffirmed his vote in Jingle but thinks DP is scum too. His only post in the past 24 hours. GK thinks Jingle is bigger scum than DP so is voting Jingle DP and Jingle have been having an argument in the thread Jingle sounds less angry/more contributory | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
1 main thing here: We need to agree on an action plan ASAP, as between Ange and I, one of us is likely to die tonight. If I go, I'm going to bestow upon Ange the confirmed townie hat. If Ange goes, well, that kinda sucks too. I'll post up my proposal for an action plan later. Woot. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Got the bastard, nice. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 00:27 alan133 wrote: I am back from a long day. I thought Jingle is certainly getting lynched the last time I post, so I did not sneak out to check on this thread during work today. In my eyes, he is as close as to scum as it can get without flipping. @aRyu It did not occur to me that I am putting myself in a position to lynch you once Jingle flips town. In fact, I intend to use that as a basis to come out with a Jingle/DarthPunk scenario. If the remaining scums are in fact, in all four of us who voted for Mordanis before changing votes, and if both you and Jingle are townies, then it means me and Darth Punk are the scums. This won’t make sense, unless there is a third mafia hiding among the early Zork votes. If you think I am using this to set up a lynch on you, I am not, and I apologize if it came out that way. I don’t think there is a chance for Jingle to flip town at this point in time. @Jingle His recent post has somewhat improved; he stopped the tunnelling thing and moved on to OMGUS town. (lol) There are no follow up to my case, and no follow up to Good Karma’s either. However, his reaction to DP’s scum slip seems very believable, and the counter-vote seems to give him huge townie points. It could be another attempt to “seems pro town” by “catching” DP, as DP has gained quite a lot of FOS-momentum at that point. + Show Spoiler + WIFOM: Could it be scums trying to sacrifice another scummate so the last one can gain a more advantages spot? I think this is very unlikely, but no entirely impossible. @DarthPunk I said I could not find any scummy things to penalize him in his huge filter, how eager is he to prove me wrong. I am sure many has caught and mentioned his scum slip ever since he started defending himself. (Oh the irony) Even Jingle himself talks about his “slip”. I would like to know, why Jingle gives you a townie vibe, other than that you yourself is getting tunnelled right now? I would also like to add that that was posted before you were tunnelled, so any other reasons? No? Also, this: Well, in this case, if you are a town, you are allowing town to mislynch you-an anti-town play. If you are a scum, then LOL. Please tell me this is not a slip? If you intend to buy “townie points” with this, then you failed miserably. Town wants to lynch scum, not martyr himself to prove he is town. I am fine with voting any of these two players, but I will keep my vote on Jingle for the moment. I think we got both scums. Alan's post here explains pretty clearly why he wasn't going with a DP lynch vote. He was calling out a Jingle/DP scenario miles before I hammered DP, so I'm not sure if he was town. Part of the reason why I delayed my vote for as long as I did was to make sure that no one could sheep the final vote. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
He was calling out a Jingle/DP scenario miles before I hammered DP, so I'm not sure if he was town. EBWOP: Should read He was calling out a Jingle/DP scenario miles before I hammered DP, so I'm pretty sure he is town. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On July 30 2012 09:14 Zorkmid wrote: Since we've been told that: All that we really know is that we have a roleblocker(medic or otherwise), and that that roleblocker saved a kill. (I don't buy the idea that mafia didn't use a KP, especially not in a newbie game). From this I can infer that the same person viewed as most dangerous by mafia, was viewed as the most valuable townie by the roleblocker. I'm too tired to do any analysis. And frankly from the tone about my posting, I don't have much desire to. If you are a medic, DO NOT CLAIM. The mafia could have just passed on the first nightkill since they felt like they could afford to after picking off a vig with a mislynch. So it's not necessarily a given that there is a medic in the game. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
@ Jingle Still not convinced he's town. If Jingle is town, I don't get why he would just decide to post nothing except angrish for 40 straight hours. It doesn't make him look any more innocent. If he's so fed up with the game that he just wants to watch town crash and burn, why not go do something more enjoyable with his time rather than posting in the thread? @ Alan My read on Alan is going to be heavily influenced by what happens tonight. Don't want to tip my hand too heavily here, but I think Ange, Obvious, and Jingle brought up some points worth considering. @ aRyuujin For the most part, it's like he flipped an "on switch" in terms of scumhunting these past 48 hours and really went to work nailing Darthpunk. For that I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, for now. But given that he was one of the "Mordanis Five" (Alan, Jingle, Darth, Zorkmid, aRyuujin) he deserves a closer look. I'll post more tomorrow. Expect a long-ish analysis post sometime before night. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 05 2012 06:03 JingleHell wrote: Well, whoever RBed me seems to have failed to stop the NK. Good job. I'd like everyone to focus in on this claim. No one has claimed RB yet. After tonight, I'd like for the RB to come out and claim. If no RB claims, we lynch JingleHell. If scum counterclaims, we flip a coin and lynch both (since we can afford a mislynch.) Sound good? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 11:17 JingleHell wrote: I would have played like a "decent person" to begin with if I hadn't replaced into a shitty position where I couldn't get momentum. Jingle, did you read my post on the RB quote? What do you think? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 11:32 JingleHell wrote: I think it took you a minute to remember that there's scum RBs out there who also could have RBed me. I also plan to spend more time persuading you than listening to you, for my sanity. It seems to work better that way, anyways, judging by the dead scum. Jingle, your post seemed to imply that you think the town RB blocked you, which is why I'm asking. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 11:49 JingleHell wrote: As for killing me to satisfy your curiosity, well, anyone who isn't confirmed town suggesting that will sound scummy. I've got some things I'd rather wait until daypost to discuss, though. Not sure if waiting until day is such a good idea, because that means one less confirmed townie to talk things through with. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 07 2012 11:48 JingleHell wrote: I clearly did at the time, but at this point, it's hard to be sure, since nobody has claimed to give us a confirmed townie to make things easier. I can't prove I was RBed, but I don't see what I'd gain from faking it as scum. In fact, considering it could be used to accuse me of rolefishing, and I was in the spotlight already... This still doesn't make sense. So on one hand you thought there was a town RB, but you wanted the RB to come out and confirm, when there were still two scum left and we couldn't afford to mislynch yet? Why? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
So you did or you didn't get RB'd? | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 08 2012 03:13 Ange777 wrote: I don't think that we have a town RB. But scum having RB and not using it for two nights (especially night 2!) after medic got a save in night 1 makes no sense to me as well. Scum having an RB and using it on JingleHell makes zero sense either. He's not playing like a medic at all. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 08 2012 03:38 Ange777 wrote: EBWOP: I know. RBed or not, at the moment it does not change my read on Jingle or my last remaining scum therefore I am ignoring it right now. Fair enough. About 1 or 2 minutes before night ends, I'd suggest we all post up last wills and testaments--have a strong feeling one of us is going to get NK'd tonight. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 08 2012 03:58 Ange777 wrote: Actually I already finished mine and can't wait to post it :D Don't post it yet, we don't want to give the last scum any more information than he needs. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
JingleHell, Alan, and aRyuujin are my scum reads. JingleHell first, Alan second, aRyuu third. I am a firm believer that scum were piled on the Mordanis lynch up until I switched my vote to Zorkmid. Out of the Mordanis Five, Zork and Darth have already flipped scum. The remaining three are listed above. I think that JingleHell is a likely scum, and that the move by JingleHell to quickly vote Darthpunk was a bussing gesture. The whole thing with Darth defending JingleHell but JingleHell accusing Darth out of the blue just seems really fishy to me. Especially from this post onwards: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=56#1102 Darth's defense of JingleHell, like Zork's medic "breadcrumb", are both suspciously bad. His townie read on JingleHell finally extends to a discussion about JH's stubbornness and even to his style of speaking on the tech boards, which is completely WIFOM and nearly useless. So basically we discount what Darth and JH posted. So what about JH then? These are the main cases on him: + Show Spoiler [My case] + On August 04 2012 06:39 Shady Sands wrote: Okie dokie town. We've just had our first big lynch of the game. So congratulations. That being said, I think there's a pretty high chance I'll get shot tonight. So before I go, I'd like to at least have a few hours of discussion. My thesis: I have found the next scum. How? Look at these two posts: Zork did a fake doctor roleclaim. His first post at 2 PM seems like a decent roleclaiming post. People ask for clues, and then he dumps the shittiest clue ever. Why? When I first read it, I thought they were trying to bait the real doctor into claiming, but if they wanted to do that, the clue had to have been good and convincing to regular townies. But then look at the claim/breadcrumb above. Good? Convincing? No, it almost looked like those two Olympics badminton pairs that were both trying to lose so they could get a better quarterfinals draw. There's no way a claim, even a fake claim, would be this poorly executed. It's so bad that its goal, which is making the real doctor counter-claim him, simply isn't possible with such a bad claim. So clearly, something is wrong here. This claim, in terms of outing the doctor, doesn't make sense. Nobody would believe him. But Zork is scum--he had to have been doing something. It's so obviously false it was immediately shot down. There's almost no chance the real doctor will counter claim. So what's the purpose of this claim? Look at what happened in the thread three minutes after Zork made his "breadcrumb": Golly, pretty fast, no? Put on your hats for a second: What if the point of the claim is to give cover for scum to switch their vote? Now let's entertain this theory for a moment, and go digging through Jinglehell's post history. He starts by targeting both me and Keir: Then what happens? Keir gets nightkilled. Then I claim and JH posts on Ange777: + Show Spoiler [Posts on Ange777] + On August 03 2012 01:18 JingleHell wrote: This isn't a defense. You aren't showing me a town motive. You're dismissing a question. That's not a quick read. That's called discussing things and looking for potential slips. It's how I work. Don't like it? Too bad. Frankly, it looks like you're trying to push me into playing differently because you don't like what I said, with an implicit threat to try and get me lynched if I don't do what you want. It's shady as all hell. ##Vote Ange777 Now, if you want to have any hope of my vote changing, you'll explain a town motive for your play regarding myself and Shady, rather than trying to turn things back on me, which is scum behavior. Funny how all of a sudden you don't like the unbiased outsider when he sees something you said as funny. On August 03 2012 03:35 JingleHell wrote: Dear you: You're either trying to get me to answer for the terrible play of the guy I replaced, or asking me to do things I've already explained why I don't want to do. When I ask you what your motive is for something, you both OMGUS me and try to make it sound like I'm the one dropping an OMGUS. Yes, I find that scummy. Start defending yourself. Attacking me does not qualify as a defense. But his accusations on Ange don't get traction, then posts a one liner to justify his vote on GK: Then flips to vote Mordanis to "counter Ange and GK." So basically no good reason to vote for Mord. This is where things get a little interesting, because around this time, he makes this post: First off, there's no need to talk about what scum might or might not be doing in the main thread--that gives scum chances to improve their behavior. Second, he's basically saying that scum are probably split between Mord and Zork, except him and Zork both piled on Mordanis. Unless JingleHell somehow knew that Zork would flip red, why would he make this post? This is almost a defense post from JingleHell, in defense of a red flip (Zorkmid) that hasn't happened yet. Then of course you get that little charade with Zorkmid's fakeclaim and Mordanis immediately calling him out on it. JingleHell feels so eager to make fun of Zork that he ridicules it 3 times in a row: From a town perspective, there's no need to gloat about the fakeclaim at all to justify a vote switch. There's no need to guess about what the scum might or might not be doing in the main thread. There's also no reason to say scum is split or not split when you are voting on the same side that scum is, before you even find out they're scum. There's no reason at all to do any of this... except if you are scum. This was the first scum mistake, town. Treasure it. And if I die tonight, don't let this opportunity go to waste. ##Vote JingleHell + Show Spoiler [Alan's case] + On August 04 2012 17:15 alan133 wrote: Just woke up, good job getting scum! @Jingle Why did I not vote for Zork Because Mordanis has not answered my case against him, and I don't think it is entirely OMGUS and has some valid point in it. Disagree if you want, but at that moment I think Mordanis is than Zork. Zork was never really interested in anyone except for maybe GoodKarma, if I was not wrong? Zork's "breadcrumb". Judging from the content of the breadcrumb and the location of the post he quoted for the breadcrumb, it is obvious to me this is a scum trying to take down a blue with him. If you noticed that was my first post, and it was fairly early in the game with little scum hunting going on. I said him starting the scum hunting is a huge townie trait for him, suggest it could be WIFOMed into saying it has scum motivation, but I did not use them in my argument. I defended Golbat and push for Shady lynch. I believe Shady is scum while Golbat is playing badly as a newbie town, so I am pushing for a Shady lynch. The "creating distance" is another fantasy of yours. I thought Zork's angry reaction was a town trait. I made my stance on him based on that. I was following that game because I missed it, and my impression was you caught the first scum. Scum was in a fairly strong position right now and I was hoping you to tip the balance. I don't think this is entirely OMGUS. My case on him was not based on my own speculation or fantasies. It is based on reading his filter in general, and the small things that I picked up along the way. How about stating a townie motivation for:
+ Show Spoiler [Ange's case on Jingle] + On August 03 2012 03:02 Ange777 wrote: This case against me is simply bad. I'll start from the beginning: You are asking me for a town motivation for asking about your scum reads? Since when is it scummy to pressure others for their reads especially when that player has not taken any stance at all in the game? I have been completely open with whoever I thought was suspicious and posted cases or questions regarding those players. You just subbed in. We don't know anything about your alignment. Of course it is in the interest of town to get an understanding for whom you believe is suspicious. You saw my explanation: Because you were not involved in previous discussion, you were unbiased and therefore perfectly able to judge what we had posted. Keir agreed with me in this point as well. Then you accuse me of setting you up for a mislynch. You seem to have a brilliant imagination for I can't make up my mind why you would think that. I have stated my suspicions about Shady several times. Giving one's read before the night ends is perfectly normal as I could have died that night and I wanted to make sure that everyone knows whom I believe is suspicious. If I had indeed been trying to set you up in a mislynch because of your suspicions regarding Shady, shouldn't I have taken a step back from my own case against Shady so that I could accuse you? So it seems that your explanation for not giving any further comments on players is that you have a different playstyle. One that includes discussion and potential scumslips. Fine, but then show it to me! Oh no wait ... seems like in your entire post you skipped the discussion about Zorkmid and his scumslip! Instead you build up a huge case against me based on what? Literally nothing. Can the Jingle, who was hyped when joining the game as the savior, really be this bad? No, I don't think so. I believe you saw your scum buddy Zork in trouble and went out to discredit my case and me. So "turning things back on you" would be scummy. Cute. Because somehow YOU turned things back on to me. And to be clear, right now I am not pushing you for playing in a different way than me! I am pushing your case for playing the most obvious scum play I have ever seen. JH's defense of his posts pretty much only extends to accusing the town of WIFOM and confirmation bias. While you could argue that after the Zork fakeclaim, there's nothing JH could have done that wouldn't have looked guilty, this point from me still remains: First off, there's no need to talk about what scum might or might not be doing in the main thread--that gives scum chances to improve their behavior. Second, he's basically saying that scum are probably split between Mord and Zork, except him and Zork both piled on Mordanis. Unless JingleHell somehow knew that Zork would flip red, why would he make this post? This is almost a defense post from JingleHell, in defense of a red flip (Zorkmid) that hasn't happened yet. Why would JingleHell argue that scum would be throwing someone under the bus, and keep arguing that scum votes are probably split, when Zork and Darth had already piled onto the Mord train? How would he have known to distance himself the other Mord voters before they ended up flipping red? It makes no sense unless you read it as a defense-in-advance of a scum flip that hasn't happened yet. And JingleHell has not answered this point in the past 72 hours in spite of making tons of posts accusing the entire town of WIFOM and "confirmation bias". Onto Alan/aRyuu Between these two, I'm fairly certain Alan is not green. However, this doesn't mean Alan is scum--rather, I think he's the medic. My read on him the whole game has been someone who is more interested in finding out confirmed townies than finding out confirmed scum, while quasi-lurking and making very circumspect posts. This sort of behavior only makes sense if he's the medic, or the scum roleblocker. Basically, if Alan doesn't roleclaim medic, I'd suggest lynching him after lynching JingleHell. aRyuujin also fits the medic profile, quasi-lurking and trying to stay under the radar, but overall maintaining a very pro-town posting streak. But his recent posting on Darth is a bit more... reckless than I'd expect from a scum trying to dot all their i's and cross all their t's, so to speak. And finally, discount the whole scum RB discussion on JingleHell--that was just a ploy from me to get the scum RB to not RB anyone tonight, in the off chance that JingleHell was innocent and scum RB would think to try and make him look guilty when no one came forward with an RB claim. If I'm dead, good luck town, and it was nice playing with all of you. Please follow Ange777, she's the closest thing to confirmed town this town has. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 08 2012 06:02 Ange777 wrote: Shady, please reconsider to lynch Alan first. He is my only remaining scum read (with Jingle only being slighty scummy but should be town)! I have town reads on every other player in this game except for Alan. If he doesn't roleclaim medic I'll consider lynching him over Jingle. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 08 2012 06:05 Ange777 wrote: Have you already finished my case on Alan, Shady? Yep. My read stands, I think if he doesn't roleclaim soon he will be in quite a bit of hot water. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 08 2012 06:08 Ange777 wrote: My guess is scum is afraid to have his nightkill saved if he tries to go for one of the more expected kills. That's great. We're forcing scum into playing sub-optimally. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 08 2012 11:16 goodkarma wrote: @Shady: I'm here, but I had a pretty lengthy case write-up. Took a while to write. I'll be around the next few hours and actively following the thread. So if you, or anyone else for that matter (especially alan) have anything to comment on for my case feel free to let me know. And of course, if I have anything else to add I'll chime in. Got it, I'm reading through it. Now time for aRyuujin to pipe up. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 09 2012 08:01 Shady Sands wrote: Since Alan is not medic, I am comfortable voting for him. Even a mislynch would be fine at this point--it would put us into MYLO tomorrow, and with a medic, we could no-lynch tomorrow to essentially force scum to possibly waste a KP. That being said, I'm curious to hear what everyone thinks is the best lynch target if Alan flips green. JingleHell's posting behavior is really weird. He's been quiet ever since the Day post, and didn't offer any analysis on his Alan vote. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 09 2012 10:42 JingleHell wrote: I'm voting for Alan for a pisston of reasons already stated, and if I had made some obscenely long post re-detailing all of those things, you would instead be nattering on about clutter, so I'll just save myself some time instead, thanks? I mean, I'm aware you're pissed that I made a point about DP and was right with it, since you were so busy tunneling me to a mislynch based on WIFOM, because I tunneled the wrong guy based on WIFOM once too, but you could have the good graces not to be a tart about the obvious. Jingle, if I was really pissed I wouldn't be asking for your input. Right now, all of us need to step up to the plate and actually provide analysis. The more analysis on the table, the likelier that we are to get this lynch right. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 09 2012 10:54 JingleHell wrote: And the more you talk, the more I plan to /out of any game I see you sign up for, so I guess we're even. If you could get the fuck over yourself for thirty damn seconds, you'd realize that overall, I'm the last person who owes analysis on Alan, since between me and Ange, about 60-70% of the case against him comes from two people. Alan actually posted two long-ish defenses before you cast your vote, which is what I think you should respond to. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 09 2012 12:03 JingleHell wrote: If my play is as terrible as everyone wants to make it out to be, that's the last thing you should want. Would you really want me to accidentally undermine the effort with my oh so horrendous town play that everyone loves to talk shit about? Posting analysis isn't anti-town. I'm not sure anyone here thinks that. So when you're posting analysis, that's not horrendous town play, that's good town play. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 04:25 aRyuujin wrote: well, let's think about it. The only people left would be aRyuujin Shady ange GK Jingle (minus whoever gets NKed) Shady/ange I'd say are pretty much guaranteed town. I know I'm town, and you guys really ought to be looking somewhere else, seeing as without me, Jingle would've been lynched. So GK vs Jingle... The thing is, if GK is scum then the whole Mordanis scumtrain isn't true. Then it means that all of a sudden, anyone could be scum--it could even be Ange, who we could say has just been doing an extended bussing trick to get the 2 mislynches necessary for scum to win. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 04:25 aRyuujin wrote: well, let's think about it. The only people left would be aRyuujin Shady ange GK Jingle (minus whoever gets NKed) Shady/ange I'd say are pretty much guaranteed town. I know I'm town, and you guys really ought to be looking somewhere else, seeing as without me, Jingle would've been lynched. So GK vs Jingle... Overall, I'd say Jingle is still the clearest lynch target. He hasn't posted a thing since the night 4 post, and he's basically attempted to use "being angry" as an excuse to refrain from posting any additional analysis. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 05:44 JingleHell wrote: You know, if you're going to go crying in the TL Mafia ban thread about me being a meany poopoo head, you could try learning from the thread and realize I've actually been doing my best to ignore you when I'm not busy turning a logical case into bizarre WIFOM to convince you to vote for the guy who flips scum. You call me out and complain about my play when it's saved the town's ass once already, and is probably about to win the game for us. And if you want to talk about "if Alan flips green" the highest lynch priority should be whoever brought it up. I'm definitely not going to answer to someone who won't let me ignore them, and who does complain about the responses they get when they actively try to push me out of the thread and then complain about it working. I'm not sure if anyone's been trying to push you out of the thread--all of us have encouraged you to post analysis, not angrish, here. Onto a more relevant topic: what do you mean that "the highest lynch priority should be whoever brought it up?" | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 05:51 Shady Sands wrote: I'm not sure if anyone's been trying to push you out of the thread--all of us have encouraged you to post analysis, not angrish, here. Onto a more relevant topic: what do you mean that "the highest lynch priority should be whoever brought it up?" Also note that you were the first one to push a case on Alan, so if Alan flips green, then by logic you haven't helped the town at all. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 05:56 JingleHell wrote: I've tried to. But every time I do, people bitch at me for not talking more. And then when I answer, they ask for me to get banned from TL Mafia. I think I have a bit of a right to have an issue with that. And yeah, given that you were all dancing nicely to DP's tune until I called him out, I'll take a bit of credit. And as for Shady, if you think I'm likely to be wrong about Alan, maybe you should have posted analysis along those lines to clear him and push a better target, instead of sheeping on someone who you think is a horrible player. Were we dancing to DP's tune? Ange and aRyuu posted on DP about a page before you did, if I recall. You didn't join in on DP until DP inexplicably defended you in one of his posts. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 05:56 JingleHell wrote: I've tried to. But every time I do, people bitch at me for not talking more. And then when I answer, they ask for me to get banned from TL Mafia. I think I have a bit of a right to have an issue with that. And yeah, given that you were all dancing nicely to DP's tune until I called him out, I'll take a bit of credit. And as for Shady, if you think I'm likely to be wrong about Alan, maybe you should have posted analysis along those lines to clear him and push a better target, instead of sheeping on someone who you think is a horrible player. And I never said it was likely you're wrong about Alan. I'm saying that if Alan flips green, you have lead responsibility. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 06:03 JingleHell wrote: I don't remember DP leading the votes until I called him out. And I notice you're managing to ignore what I said. If you don't like hearing what I have to say, let me ignore you. We'll all be happier. That's because Ange and aRyuu made their cases while most of us were asleep or at work. The issue is, as a confirmed townie, if you choose to ignore me, essentially it means that we can't keep you in town for LYLO either, which means we *have* to lynch you tomorrow since a no-lynch equals LYLO. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
| ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
And sorry JingleHell for pushing you so hard. Kept getting frustrated that you were never posting a proper defense =P | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 06:12 Ange777 wrote: I CLAIM GIRL ... oh no that was the wrong one >_< ... I CLAIM MEDIC! Night 1: SAVE KEI Night 2: SAVE GK Night 3: SAVE OBVIOUS Night 4: ANYONE READING THIS? At the beginning I was even afraid of it being to obvious .... SHADY Man, those words with V were really giving me headaches I wish there was a heart emoticon somewhere in the smilies and bbcode. | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 06:12 Hapahauli wrote: GG Town! Hats off to Ange777 for the DP lynch, as well as Shady Sands - descending the cliff at Helms Deep to get Zorkmid lynched. Heh, yep. Most of the time I was trying to set myself up as the hammer on any votes, so as to make life harder for scum =) | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
Golbat: Sorry. We messed up on you, but you made yourself a really easy target, too. A valuable lesson. Mordanis: Was fun playing with you. Sorry about pushing for the lynch, but eventually figured out that you weren't scum because no one was really coordinating with your points. Darthpunk: Sorry that I'm frustrating lol =). The Zork lynch boiled down the fact that Ange's arguments made sense, while yours and Alan's didn't. Your lynch boiled down to a rather big mistake from you in defending Jingle (and not bussing him.) In all honesty, I'm not that great of a player, I just got lucky with scumslips. Ange777: Wow. You are awesome. If I ever go to Germany I am definitely treating you to a nice dinner or something because play this good deserves a reward. GoodKarma, Obvious, aRyuujin: You, Obvious, and aRyuujin I don't have as strong an impression of, but I enjoyed playing with all three of you. You guys worked hard. Let's do this again sometime. As for aRyuujin specifically, I think you laid out a great defense of why you weren't scum even though you were on the Mordanis train. Definitely a post that I'll bookmark for my future play. JingleHell: Sorry this game wasn't as enjoyable for you as it was for the rest of us. Your play was honestly frustrating to interpret, since the more angry you became, the more convinced I was that you were putting on an act to cover up any potential scumslips. This probably put us into a negative cycle, which I'll be sure to avoid in the future. A valuable lesson all around. Promethelax: Honestly, Keir scared the shit out of me in the Mason thread, which is why I tunneled you so hard on D2. I was actually leaning Zork/Obvious (hindsight is 20/20, I know) but Keir's warnings + your whole "trusted townie" circle just put our scum-meters into red alert. Sorry. Zorkmid: Zork, no offense, but you were probably the weak link in the scum chain (just as I was the weak link in the town chain). I look forward to watching us improve together. alan: You're really good at this, I can tell. The existence of a medic kind of made things wierd regarding analyzing you, because your play fit the blue role perfectly. In retrospect, the fact that scum hadn't sniped you yet should have set off alarm bells in my head. Good play nonetheless. Keirathi: Buddy! Thanks so much for putting up with me. I'm sorry to make you do that. You are 10x a better player at this game, and you gave me tons of tips early on in the game. Blazinghand: Thanks so much. You are the best coach ever, and had it not been for your coaching, I don't think I could have contributed to town in much of a meaningful way. Keep it up. You've inspired me to keep learning this game, and I have no doubts you will inspire others to do the same! | ||
|
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On August 10 2012 13:02 Mordanis wrote: I still think the biggest scum-slip of the entire game was the way that Alan got pissed off at Zork for scum-slipping. I would have pushed that a lot harder... Also, the scariest part of the entire game was Shady's statement that if GK flipped scum, Ange or anyone else could also be scum. Ignoring the fact that I don't think it would make sense in any situation, it was saying there were still multiple scum left in the game. I'm was afraid the entire game would enravel... Hah, I mean that if we thought GK was scum, the same logic would also make Ange or anyone else scum too. Sorry, bad wording on my part | ||
| ||
