EPTFor Vanilla Townie. Just kidding
But in!Newbie Mini Mafia XX
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
For Vanilla Townie. Just kidding But in! | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 05 2012 07:22 Hopeless1der wrote: What?...I...Its right there..with the underlined.. - There really isn't a situation you want to fakeclaim as a townie - Obviously there are situations where you might want to claim as blue Is that not a contradiction? or did you mean actually claim as blue, not fakeclaim, because that's literally the only way those two statements don't conflict with one another. Mackin give the poor guy a chance, he's just a little excited I think. I just wanted to give him a heads up so he checks his posts more carefully, that way we can narrow down our scum lists earlier rather than later. 1. There is no situation where townie should fake claim 2. There are situations where townies with power should claim. If you read above propositions exactly as written, there is no contradiction. But what lazer probably meant was: 1. There is no situation where vanilla townie should fake claim 2. There are situations where townies with power should fake claim. Still, there is no contradiction. However, there are limited situations where a super-star vanilla townie may have a better chance leading the town by fake-claiming... obviously not in open set-up where all of the power roles are revealed. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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Lazermonkey wrote: I thought it would be obvious that I meant Obviously there are situations where you might want to claim as blue(when playing blue). The post doesn't make any sense at all otherwise... There are situations where power roles may fake claim - for example, fake claim vanilla. | ||
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YourHarry
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BTW, jingle do u play on mafiascum? | ||
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YourHarry
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Also, this is my first game in TL, but I did play a few games on mafiascum.net where random voting on D1 is prevalent. My voting on Hopless1der was to see his and others' reactions. | ||
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YourHarry
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Of course, a stronger case can be made if your meta is based on many games on an experienced player. But when dealing with new players, not sure how much info we can gain from it. Still, I will give it a read. | ||
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YourHarry
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BTW, is it OK to reference ongoing games? | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 05 2012 08:18 JingleHell wrote: Oh, and bear in mind, I won't do this if a case gets made. I let people make their own counter-claim. I only stepped in because I see random D1 votes as so dangerous in our newbie games. Random D1 votes may be dangerous. But even if the random vote somehow starts a bandwagon, who knows, maybe I got the scum by chance. But more importantly, it allows for more substantial discussions. Often times, scums under pressure gives off scum odor. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 05 2012 08:35 JingleHell wrote: Well then, consider yourself under pressure, and unconvincing, since you just basically admitted to being disinterested in making substantial cases, and said Funny, when it's 3/13... 23% chance. That's not good odds in my book. You sound scummy. Heh. It's actually 3/12 since I am not scum. WOOT! Townslip?? or WIFOM?? Yes, we do hope that after carrying out D1's worth of substantial discussions that our probability of lynching a scum would increase from 25%. But how much? Maybe to 30%? Do remember that I admitted to voting Hopeless1der to pressure him... to see his response and others'. I am willing to take part making substantial cases. So far, I have not been able to find one. As this game goes on and there are more posts to analyze, if I still fail to come up with substantial cases that falls short of reasonable standard, then it will be due to my shortcomings. At this time in the game, I think I adequately explained myself and am suspicious why you are suspicious of me  | ||
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YourHarry
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I am not sure if you missed it, but I explained my reasoning for placing my vote on Hopeless1der. I will summarize here: 1. Hint of motivation to start a band wagon against a player who may have contradicted himself. (slightly scummy) 2. To see his and others' response (not related to scuminess) Jingle is telling me that I should not have done that. In fact he is saying that I am scum because: A. He thinks I am trying to mislynch. (False) B. I am not participating in case based on substantial evidence (True, but not my fault probably) | ||
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YourHarry
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I didn't particularly find lazer monkey's post scummy. This is a newbie game. He is simply providing some guidelines on what townies should avoid - since (I assume) that his previous games have been tainted by vanilla towns claiming power roles. BTW, I am not OMGUSing Jingle. I just find it difficult to understand why he finds me scummy, since I think I explained myself and answered all of his questions. When someone is focusing his accusation on a player based on reasonable evidence, that someone could be town or scum. But when someone is stubborn about his accusation on a player, even after the accused player adequately explained himself, I think that someone is likely to be scum. Maybe he is not satisfied with my answers. If so, Jingle, please tell me what you still think I am scum. Here, someone may question whether my initial vote against Hopeless also makes me scummy for above reason. But as I explained, I don't particularly find him scummy and my initial attempt to incite responses from him and others did partially succeed - mostly in the forms of accusations toward me. ##Unvote ##Vote Jingle | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 05 2012 10:19 JingleHell wrote: It's like Harry is a stand-up comedian. It was not an reactionary OMGUS vote just because you were voting me. I had a valid reason for suspecting you, which I outlined in the post. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 05 2012 11:13 JingleHell wrote: EBWOP: Did you watch the rest of XVIII after you got killed, Release? If you did, you know how much it benefits scum to get into large, drawn out, chaotic, tunnel-vision shout-fests. What we want is a substantial discussion. But in order to get there, we have to start somewhere. Some random votes or some FOS on evidence that may seem trivial at first allows us to start up such discussions. Personally, I like to apply pressure - it usually works well for me in the past. And this is why I am questioning you now. You can answer my questions, in a logical manner. At this time, the only reason I am voting you is because I cannot understand the basis for your thinking that I am scum. While townies also do make mistakes during lynches and can sometimes be stubborn at times, in average townies tend to be more logical. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 05 2012 11:29 JingleHell wrote: You didn't even begin to answer them sufficiently, all you did was repeat yourself. You want to gamble, based on all your anecdotal experience playing with completely different people. That's great and all, but I consider it scummy. Now, considering that you seem to think votes are "just pressure" or some such, if you're really town, and think you can defend yourself adequately, why are you so concerned by my vote? Unless there's something to what I said, which you didn't seem to acknowledge, as you and lazer have made it into the basis of a "case" against me, then you shouldn't be bothered in the slightest. And if you do admit that there's something to what I said, you probably should have unvoted Hopeless instead of trying to start attacking me because of "just pressure". That would make sense, right? I never said I wanted to gamble. I said in the worst case, IF my voting based on less than substantial evidence actually DOES leads to a lynch, it may still be not the worst thing in the world because there is some chance that I might have picked the scum. It was a supporting evidence to my argument why it is OK to random vote in the beginning of day 1 (in fact, I think we SHOULD start voting light in the beginning, just to start reasonable discussion. Again, I have never advocated random voting. And even if this is a newbie game, people can read and discriminate bandwagon based on random vote vs. a case based on substantial evidence. You are saying that you experienced otherwise. If true, I would say that it was an exception rather than the norm. Ultimately, there is not much point in playing mafia if people you are playing with are incapable making such discrimination. I am not bothered, per se. I wanted you to explain why you think I am scum because your response did not make much sense to me. That said, beside what seems to be unreasonable suspicion against me, I do not get a scum vibe from you. ##Unvote | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 05 2012 11:29 JingleHell wrote: . And if you do admit that there's something to what I said, you probably should have unvoted Hopeless instead of trying to start attacking me because of "just pressure". That would make sense, right? I realized I didn't answer this question. 1. I vote lightly in the beginning of the game, unless a player is close to lynch. With 13 players, it requires 7 to lynch. Even with lazer's vote, which came after mine, you had total of 2 votes. 2. I did have some suspicion that you were scum. Again, I outlined this multiple times. 3. Voting obviously pressured you to respond multiple times. This is what I want also. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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So either he's lying, which means he's mafia. Or he's telling the truth, because he's intimidated to play mafia. I will still catching up with the posts, BTW. | ||
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YourHarry
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So either he's lying, which means he's probably mafia. Or he's telling the truth, which means he's probably mafia as well. | ||
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YourHarry
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##Vote Hopeless1der | ||
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YourHarry
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##Unvote When's the deadline? I know I've been switching my votes around but for now I think TMG is the best option ##Vote TMG | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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Scums would likely make some level of accusations to at least one other scum. This is called bussing. This tendency may be instinctive, but in fact it is somewhat beneficial (for scums) later in the game in case one of the scum flips. So they can say, see I accused him so I am less likely to be scum. Of course, given that many scums do this, the argument is WIFOM. But I would be surprised to find 3 scum team not accusing or referencing each other on purpose for the first 15 pages of the game. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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So you are saying we made superficial accusations to each other but not actual attempt to bandwagon each other? | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 07 2012 03:08 JieXian wrote: Hopeless only attacked YOU. Lazer attacked everyone. Try to look at the first case too. Bloody weird of Lazer to stop being "uninhibited" against Harry for that "bandwagon" post given a search for bandwagon on his filter returns 21 results (including people he was quoting) I think one of the misconception is that scums would attack everyone. Where as towns may change their mind and post their changing reads in uninhibited manner, scums are always awry that people will suspect them of acting scummy. In my experience at least, scums tend to pick a target or two and tunnel. Unless definitive consensus builds on their initial target, they stay with the target. In reality, it is super difficult to try to find scums from written texts that can have been modified and edited for perfection before being posted. There is no wavering tone of voice or wandering and intimidated eye contact to base your scum reads on. At least, for me, I change my reads all the time. For example, I was relatively sure Hopeless1 was scum but now I think he's probably town. I am bringing up this point to say that Lazer's attacking everyone does not mean he's scum. Also, despite Hopeless's long defense post made me think he's town, his attacking one person in this game does not necessarily make him obvious townie. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 07 2012 03:27 JieXian wrote: You seem like a smarter person and for the most part your post makes sense. Which is why I think you're mafia because you have been tunneling on hopeless and then switched to TMG. Also your stupider partner seems to be super awry of anybody is is suspecting you and Mackin acting scummy. Fictions are easy to write in D1 of mafia. Almost nothing is known. Take any three players in the game, with any combination of presence (or absence) of timely defense or accusations or buddying or bussing, you can write a story. I have been guilty of such story-telling and actually believing it more than once. Here, you may be partially correct Lazer and Mackin could both be mafia. But, I assure you, it's not completely correct Anyway more importantly, I suggest that we move away from mafia hunting that begins with "Hmm, it would make sense if A, B, and C are mafia together because while A and B briefly referenced each other, for the most part A, B and C are not involved in direct accusations with each other! Also, while A is awry of accusations from others, B is pretending to be townie by changing his reads multiple times." This kind of scum hunting in my experience don't produce good result. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 07 2012 06:11 JingleHell wrote: Well, I have a vote that I don't want to change without a good reason, so we might just have a stalemate if you aren't willing to talk. His very first post regarding how vanilla townies shouldn't claim but there may be instances when blue could fake claim, obviously, vanilla... I thought he was one of the blue roles. | ||
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YourHarry
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"how vanillas townies shouldn't fake claim" | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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But I digress. Lazer claiming vanilla townie makes him slightly less scummy than before but much less risky to lynch him. This is because he is either scum or vanilla townie. It is true that as scum he may benefit more by claiming power role so that his scum team can at least find out who the real detective is, upon countering. If no one counters, he will likely be guaranteed to avoid lynch on D1. Thus, Lazer's claiming vanilla is not a typical scum play. At the same time, since everyone knows that it is typically a good play for scum who's about to be lynched to claim power role, scums may try to claim vanilla to try to avoid lynch. So not completely WFIOM, but resembles it. Still, at least we know we won't be lynching a power role. So I am OK with lazer lynch for now, but I will spend the next hour or so to try to find a better candidate, if possible. I think TMG is one, but no one seems willing to join this wagon. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 07 2012 06:50 JingleHell wrote: How about a little bet, Hapahauli. If Lazer flips Red, we lynch you tomorrow for your (getting ridiculous) defense of him. If he flips town, lynch me. Now... this post... I know I shouldn't do this but why does this post keep forcing into my head following scum alignments!! Lazer, hopeless1 (GF), Jingle......... Like, earlier I did vouch to take responsibility if TMG lynch = mislynch, but I wouldn't have bet my life on it. AH anyway should move on. Don't have much time. Hapahuli I did re-read hopeless1's response, which without your commentary I thought made sense on my first read, felt somewhat engineered. I can't put my finger on it though. I would say that hopeless1der is better lynch than lazer. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 07 2012 13:03 Hapahauli wrote: Its interesting to bring up that the Detective is not a very useful role now. Even if a player shows up red, there's still a 50% chance he's townie (miller). As for checking lazer, don't. We have a lot of posts on lazer, and it would be much more useful for the tracker and detective to use their night actions on people with a lower post count. 50% is still very good. And honestly, lynching a miller isn't a terrible thing anyway. On another note: I think based on the the time the votes were made TMG is cleared (despite what I said earlier), for now. He made his vote when laser and hopeless had equal number of votes at 4. This occurred 90 minutes before deadline. For similar reason, this also clears evulrabbitz. After TMG's vote, lazer obviously voted for hopeless, which tied their votes at 5 a piece. Evulrabbitz then broke the tie, voting for evulrabbitz, 23 minutes before the deadline. Above two arguments would only hold if lazer was not scum. And if lazer was scum, he's probably not a god father because hopeless did vote against him to tie the vote counts. He did this very close to the deadline, and if lazer was godfather, I don't think hopeless would have risked someone else lynching godfather in lazer. Hopeless would have just chosen to not post. However, it is true that hopeless may not have thought about this. Only other exception to this would be that evulrabbitz is one of the scum team and hopeless and evulrabbitz discussed in quiet talk that evulrabbitz would vote against hopeless to prevent lazer godfather mislynch. This again is not likely as evulrabbitz's vote comes 29 minutes after lazer's vote, rather than immediately. If someone else had voted against lazer, he would have accrued 6 votes first, and evulrabbitz could not have prevented lazer lynch. And I think Release is probably town based on his suspicion of Lazer, Jingle, and me being mafia. Scum, I think, would have acknowledged possibility of hopeless being mafia or at least not post at all. Plus, release's response seemed genuine. However, this conclusion is significantly weaker than first two town reads above, at least on factual grounds. So town reads: hapahuli, TMG, evulrabbitz Also (again assuming that lazer is not a scum), I would have expected scums would have tried to get on lazer's badwagon. Of course there are exceptional possibilities: 1. they were just not around during the deadline 2. they were already voting for lazer 3. they feared that changing their votes would make them suspicious I have no idea about #1. But aside from Khorrus, who was not around ever, Mackin who had his vote on me could have easily switched his vote without buying suspicion. When the number of votes between lazer and hopeless were so close, I think scum Makin would have contributed toward lazer lynch (again, given that lazer is not scum and Makin was around during deadline). This leaves the following possible scum list: JingleHell JieXian The_Zen_Man Bassinspace (although he had his vote on hopeless, he was not able to change it anyway because it would brought so much suspicion last minute) Also, given that Khorrus will be modkilled within 24 hours if no replacement is found, I would think he's probably not scum, especially after scum got lynched D1. We all want good, sort of balanced game from the observers' point of view. | ||
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YourHarry
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For similar reason, this also clears evulrabbitz. After TMG's vote, lazer, as expected, voted for hopeless, which tied their votes at 5 a piece. Evulrabbitz then broke the tie, voting for hopeless, 23 minutes before the deadline. At these time points which were so close to the deadline, it was clear that each of their votes would make a definite impact. Especially since there was no clear consensus on hopeless being the scum (except for hapahuli, even people who were voting for him, myself included, projected their doubt on hopeless being scum but that it was the better choice between lazer and hopeless) it would not have been that suspicious to place their lynch deciding vote on lazer, rather than hopeless. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 07 2012 15:01 Hapahauli wrote: @ YourHarry - Lynching anyone but mafia is pretty fucking terrible. Your analysis on the recent vote as it pertains to LazerMonkey's innocence is very well thought out. On voting habits, TMG and evulrabbitz check out very well, since they had the chance to swing the vote over to Lazer as opposed to hopeless. I highly disagree on your stance on Bass_in_Space for now, as he had the opportunity to join the strong bandwagon on Lazer a few hours before the deadline and didn't take it. In addition, we cannot make a judgement on the guilt/innocence of Khorrus, since he literally made two posts. The first was fluff, and the second was him asking for a replacement. The second post is key here. First 50% of lynching scum, at least in this stage, is wonderful. Second, power role mislynch is much worse than vanilla town mislynch which is significantly worse than miller lynch. This is especially the case, now that mafia role cop is no more. Whether having a miller alive or not is beneficial is arguable. Mislynch earlier is usually better than mislynch later. And detective that checks out scum in miller later in game could be worse than miller mislynch in early game. Regarding Bass_in_Space, you may be right. He had the opportunity to change, but it should be considered that it would have been more difficult for him to do so, at least compared to others who had their votes on players other than lazer or hopeless. My argument about Khorrus mostly relies on mod's willingness to modkill. Not sure if it's a good style to talk about it here. | ||
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YourHarry
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I maintain that it was not an OMGUS battle, at least from my perspective. I had valid reason, at least from what little was available at the time, to suspect Jingle. And if Jingle is scum, my quick reconciliation is not necessarily scummy. At best, it's WIFOM. One can argue that scums would be hesitant to dismiss each other's scuminess, in fear that 1) obvious buddying may make both of them suspicious, exactly how you are suspecting both of us 2) other's scum flip will incriminate them. Either way, my actions on end of day 1 to place the one of the deciding votes on Hopeless (especially when I previously expressed my opinion that I didn't think hopeless was particularly scummy, I could have easily justified my vote against someone else) and my willingness to vote against Jingle now should make me unlikely to be scum. Also, in regards to miller providing a difficulty for town victory: miller counters mafia role cop and detective is soft countered by miller. Mafia role cop is gone and detective is still alive. So, miller's value to town is at extreme minimum. Of course, if detective was nonexistant, miller would be as good as vanilla townie. | ||
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YourHarry
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Actually, miller could be somewhat useful if the last mafia standing is the godfather. In such a case, any "innocent" investigation would be a null-tell, and "guilty" investigation would mean miller, a proven townie. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 08 2012 00:33 Evulrabbitz wrote: That is true. I thought my vote was the last possible. Regardless, it does not weaken my case, it does rather the opposite. I stand corrected. Evul's vote was 13 minutes before the deadline, and as he admits, he thought it was the last vote possible. He's basically admitting that his vote was useless, still he felt inclined to switch his vote. Combined with the fact that his previous postings do not talk about his preference for lazer vs. hopeless lynch. In fact, he never really brings up his reads on either player. The act of suddenly changing his vote last minute, when hopeless lynch was already evident, resembles classic case of bussing and is scummy. Thus top two lynch candidates: Evul Jingle | ||
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YourHarry
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Sorry I was confused. You did have the chance to change your vote to lynch lazer. And it would not have been that suspicious as you had your initial vote on someone other than hopeless. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 08 2012 03:45 The_Zen_Man wrote: What i meant was that we should give the mafia as little information as possible. I know we need to make reads and stuff, but a good way of not letting your opinons go to the grave and not letting mafia get any information is to post just before the deadline. That way, we have your opinions, and mafia cant use that information in time. Concerning Lazermonkey, i will answer them d2. I could use the method i described above to do that, but the deadline will be 3 am in sweden, and i dont want to stay up that long. From kindle: We have limited time, especially since people live in diff time zone. And by forcing discussions we may be able to reverse engineer likely scums from who gets targeted. At least we can discuss why someone was targeted in relation to night discussion. And possibly provide more info to detective nurse and tracker. Personally I sort of convinced by jingle. Tho I would have expected jingle to dare detective to check him. If hes scum hes prob not godfather | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 08 2012 05:23 Hapahauli wrote: Oh wow I got sniped. GG harry =P Lol. This gave me the chills. I thought you got your night report to find out that you were targeted or something. In fact, you were talking about me beating you in posting on the top of the page. No role fishing here. No scum slip here. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 08 2012 10:03 Mackin wrote: No way! I was gonna post saying if Khorrus is scum it would ruin game... damn man it's almost too easy of a game. A couple of pages back, this is exactly what I wrote. Wow. Respect to the mod for making this kill. Seriously, I thought mod would only do this if modkill wouldn't make the game significantly less interesting. Kudos. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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After 12 hours, they should post the negative result, but in order. Detective should post first, and the tracker should only post if he targeted someone other than whom detective has targeted. Otherwise he should keep quiet and claim vanilla townie. | ||
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YourHarry
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The reason for power role claiming immediately if they received the positive result is also evident. This is because what we will do today would be clearly decided: lynch whoever received the positive result. This also allows medic to anonymously protect the powerrole who got the positive result. The reason for claiming in order is because we don't want two power roles to reveal their identity unless it gives us additional information. This prevents second power role role claiming just in case they targeted the same player at night. I think detective claiming first makes sense, because it is a more important role - so this allows medic to protect him at night. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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Phase 1. From now to July 8, 20:00. 1. Vanilla townies + Medic: do post, but do not claim. Detective + Tracker: claim if you received the positive result. Otherwise, do not claim. Phase 2. Until Day 2 deadline. 1. Vanilla townies + Medic: do post, but do not claim Detective: claim and report. 2. Tracker: claim if you targeted a different player than whom detective targeted. . Vanilla townies + Medic: claim vanilla townies Our own deadline system: Decide who we are going to lynch by 10 hours before actual deadline, July 9, 23:00 The person about to get lynched should claim. | ||
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YourHarry
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If the person about to get lynched claims medic, we lynch another target unless another player counter-claims medic. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 08 2012 11:33 Hapahauli wrote: I think its safe to say we've reached a consensus on DT and Tracker role-claiming? Yes, I agree. The phase 1 was there to prevent power role A from claiming after negative result before power role B claiming who received the positive result. Since I think in above scenario, only B should claim, I thought dividing the day in two phases could have helped. But whatever. I am OK with claiming right away. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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The medic can also claim roleblocked. Just don't mention that you are medic. This way we can clear one more townie, since only one person could have been roleblocked. Scum fake claiming roleblocked will be countered. | ||
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YourHarry
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Unconfirmed town list (includes 4 vanilla towns, 1 miller, 1 medic, 1 scum) Hapahaulli Release Mackin The_Zen_Man BassinSpace LazerMonkey YourHarry | ||
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YourHarry
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Given one last scum, we just have to get one correct lynch. Number of attempts we have is 4 (since there are 10 people left, on beginning of day 5 we would have 4 people left, which is LYLO, where we will be given the 4th and last attempt to lynch the scum) THE WORST CASE SCENARIO: Day2: We have to pick one out of 7. Given the worst scenario, we try to lynch medic, and he claims. We mislynch. Night2: Scum roleblocks medic, kills detective. Tracker unfortunately tracks miller. Remaining players = 3 unconfirmed vanilla, 1 confirmed vanilla, 1 miller, 1 tracker, 1 medic, 1 scum Day3: We lynch miller. Night3: Scum roleblocks medic, kills tracker. Remaining players = 3 unconfirmed vanilla, 1 confirmed vanilla, 1 medic, 1 scum Day4: We mislynch one of unconfirmed vanilla. Night4: Scum roleblocks medic, kills medic (or unconfirmed vanilla) Remaining players = 2 unconfirmed vanilla, 1 confirmed vanilla, 1 scum Day5: We mislynch one of unconfirmed vanilla. We lose. | ||
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YourHarry
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Additional strategy. Both detective and tracker should publicize who they will target. They should pick two different players. The medic can randomly protect tracker or detective, but if either detective or tracker makes it known that he will target the medic, do not protect that person (for example, detective plans to target A and tracker plans to target B, and if A turns out to be the medic, medic should protect the tracker who's targeting someone other than medic). Guidelines on day 3: Tracker and detective should immediately report. The perfect scenario is if any power role receives "innocent" or "no visit". As long as we have one additional confirmed townie, we are guaranteed a 100% victory. If detective is alive and he received "guilty" on player X, we should lynch X regardless. If detective is dead and tracker targeted the player Y who "visited Z", we should kill Y as long as Z got lynched at night. Again, Y cannot be the medic here because nurse should have protected the detective if tracker publicized his plan to target the medic (And yes, tracker is more powerful than detective at this time). I really want to play through this game, but I feel the responsibility to volunteer to lynch myself. I am a vanilla townie and I do not want to risk having to force the medic to claim. Good job Hapah, if you are town If not, you lose Good game everyone and good luck!! ##Vote YourHarry | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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I am a good person to volunteer to die today because I already expressed my thoughts on Day1 that TMG was a medic. D'oh. The scum will not mistaken me for the medic. And it is very important to prevent medic from claiming, claim leads to killing the medic today and roleblocking the tracker. The power roles will be forever useless from then on. And no one else should volunteer to take my place, because that will give more hint on who the medic is and is not. | ||
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YourHarry
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LOL. I like this. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 08 2012 19:43 Lazermonkey wrote: YourHarry, I don't like the lynch into you. Imo we should just lynch into Release/Zen_Man/Mackin at this point. Sure, if one of them is medic, they will just claim. We will clear one more person, which is huge at this stage of the game where there are only . Yes, that means that he will get roleblocked and our DT/tracker will get shot at night but this will still narrow down the field for scum to hide in alot. And this is just the worst case scenario. Speaking pure numbers, we still have 50% chance for our medic not to be among those 3. Alternativly, we could just no-lynch. This will either force the scum to have either go for DT/tracker while rb medic or go for medic while rb DT/tracker. In either case, we will get AT LEAST one more read. most likely more. The medic will always be cleared, if not now, later. Medic claiming is so anti-town at this point. Medic will die, and tracker will be role-blocked. And we are OK as long as detective checks someone other than miller. But if he checks miller, there is a decent chance we might lose. If medic does not claim, we have almost 0% chance of losing. I outlined all the strategies above, including detectives and tracker publicly announcing their planned targets. Kill me. It's for the best. | ||
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##Unvote | ||
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Did anyone get role blocked last night? If so, please claim. | ||
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On July 09 2012 02:50 Release wrote: i wouldn't worry about the RB. Probably as someone (i think Harry) mentioned, the RBer can just do nothing and claim the RB himself. I did mention this and it is true, but I also mentioned that it is very unlikely that RB did nothing to anticipate this. And if RB did anticipate this and planned to clear himself, he would have claimed "Roleblocked" earlier in the day. Therefore, I think it's very highly likely that we can clear whoever got roleblocked. As long as it is not jinglehell (I also think it's unlikely that RB roleblocked TMG). Anyway, if someone got roleblocked, please say so. | ||
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And like you said, vanilla townies don't generally leave bread crumbs, as their reads are based on information available to everyone else. They post their reads; power roles, who don't want to claim, leave breadcrumbs. But this is a newbie game, so unusual actions are possible. Still, the breadcrumb he left was not something that would have been interpreted as a breadcrumb. I don't think it was reasonable for Release to assume that anyone would recognize this breadcrumb. On the other hand, Release sprinkled enough "resemblance" to typical breadcrumb, that I think he could have engineered this to be used as his defense. ##Vote Release | ||
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On July 09 2012 05:14 Release wrote: thank you very much sir. After the day post before the evul claim. The only way you would know he was confirmed townie is if you were the last scum. GG. Scumslip in open air. Release, can you explain this? Hapahauli posted that minutes before your reply - well into Day 2 and after evul cleared Jingle. | ||
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On July 09 2012 08:12 Release wrote: actually, never mind. Evul could easily be target for scum in that case, although the scum could just RB evul anyways. We should all realize that tracker is as strong as detective in our current state, unless miller is targeted. If miller, unfortunately, is targeted, tracker is much stronger than detective. So tracker > detective. Here is the scum's strategy: he will RB detective and night kill tracker. Or he will RB tracker and night kill detective. And this is why medic should randomly pick either detective or tracker to protect. Publicizing medic's night action will allow scum to ensure that townies do not get any additional information on Day 3. So I take back what I said. Medic outing right now is not that bad. In fact, it will prevent the risk of tracker or detective from wasting their night action on medic. | ||
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On July 09 2012 07:47 JingleHell wrote: Evul, I did mention that it was absurd to think otherwise. I was just reminding people that we should still be willing to at least consider possibilities, just in case the wool actually is being pulled over our eyes. FOR SURE, evul is detective and FOR SURE, JieXian is the tracker. Even ignoring the JieXian's confirmation that evul did target Jingle during night 1, scums will for sure lose if they claim power role. This is reason #1 why they are confirmed power roles. Also, if they are not the scums, the actual power roles MUST claim today. Considering the possibility that they are not detective or tracker is BAD. Such consideration would provide the scum with the way out by countering one of these power roles later in the day. So please, do not consider those possibilities later in the day unless someone counters either one of them TODAY. Also nurse MUST claim at least by Day 4. Nurse going unclaimed until the final Day 5 would be DISASTROUS. Unless someone counters today, following MUST be taken as facts for the rest of the day: EVUL IS DETECTIVE JIEXIAN IS TRACKER | ||
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But I repeat for the third time: PLEASE CLAIM IF YOU WERE ROLEBLOCKED. | ||
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On July 09 2012 14:10 JieXian wrote: So I'll track Hapa and Evul will track Zen OR WILL WE? There is nothing wrong with revealing who you are going to target, because 1) Any additional confirmed townie = 100% victory. Any information = perfect information, as long as detective does not target miller. 2) Scum can't lynch one of the unconfirmed townies, because that = 100% town victory So scum must kill detective, tracker, or jingle. He could try to NK the nurse if he's daring, but if he gets it wrong = GG | ||
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And medic will not be targeted to be NK'ed tonight. It would be a mistake for scum to do so. So you should expect to live. Anyway, medic claiming doesn't matter. Just protect tracker or detective. | ||
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On July 10 2012 06:36 Mackin wrote: probably should put this in: ** Change the above to: ##unvote Vote Release I think you technically unvoted there. | ||
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Scum will RB either DT or tracker and NK the other. Medic will randomly target DT or the NK. He either gets lucky and townies get no information, or he gets unlucky and our win becomes the certainty. The advantage is publicizing who they are investigating simply lies in the fact that it will prevent DT and tracker to target the miller at the same time. It is possible that miller is already dead or will die tonight. But otherwise, we want to make sure that he won't be targeted by both DT and tracker. As long as we ensure this, and if scum picks the wrong combination of RB/NK target, then our victory is guaranteed. | ||
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THis is why I have been asking for whoever got roleblocked. No one responded, so it's probably TMG who got roleblocked AND NK'ed. Or scum just forgot to roleblock? lol | ||
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:D | ||
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Nurse should obviously protect DT or tracker. | ||
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On July 10 2012 09:16 Lazermonkey wrote: How does publicizing who you are going to check prevent us from not getting the miller? Scums will AT LEAST kill/RB one of Jiexian and Evul. Probebly both. So we will most likely not get more than one read anyway. We either get two reads, or 0 read. If we get two reads, we win; unless both reads pointed to the same player who turned out to be the miller. | ||
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On July 10 2012 13:04 Hapahauli wrote: YourHarry -
So I ask YourHarry to explain his actions before the D1 lynch deadline. His vote pattern follows the strengthening/weakening of the lynch-Hopeless movement on Day 1. In addition, his vote on TMG has almost no reasoning behind it. Sure, I will try my best. When I initially voted for hopeless, I believe my post was sandwiched between your three long posts accusing Hopeless. Actually I remember finding your arguments somewhat interesting. They were so long and had bunch of links, etc, but I was not quite convinced by it. My voting on hopeless and "kill it with fire" trolling was more to pressure hopeless to see how he would respond. Your meta argument that came after my vote was more convincing than the first two that came before my vote. Still, I thought hopeless defended himself well (although turned out that he was scum) and I removed my vote. I recall someone else also removing his vote from Hopeless. This should actually make me more suspicious because, now knowing that hopeless is scum, me being his scum partner would have had easier time unvoting my partner hopeless when others are also unvoting him. With this, I have no defense but to say that it was based on my change in belief that hopeless was town. And if you ask me what about hopeless defense was convincing, it would be difficult for me to answer. My decision was based on overall feel of the defense. No one else does that? I did provide a reason for for voting TMG, though the reason may have sounded stupid. TMG expressed his intimidation to play the game of mafia in a foreign language: [B]TMG wrote So basically you guys are acusing me based on my heplessness and the lack of new content in my post... Ok, its my very first game here, and i only played mafia twice on a totally different community and on a different language, so its a litle bit natural to me to be a litle bit "scared" I guess I did not quite buy that he would be a bit "scared." He was either lying or he was not. If he was lying to defend himself, it would make him a likely scum. Townies sometimes lie to when defending or accusing someone, but I think in average, scums are more likely to lie in their defense. And if he was not lying, and if he was actually scared, I reasoned that he was likely scum. I am usually only nervous when playing scum in real life and to a lesser degree on the forums. I am never nervous as a townie. You may ask "Well, if a scum is actually scared, why would he actually say that he is scared?" Well, I have done something similar. When I am scum and get nervous and scared. at least partially being able to express the truth about my being scared can help me sound more genuine and help me come across as more genuine - allowing me deceive others that I am town. But maybe now I am just arguing for the argument's sake. I just thought TMG was scum. And when you don't have a strong read in anyone else (and I didn't at the time), it takes something small like this to convince yourself. Overall, Hapha, I think, for you to have a reasonable ground to accuse me, there should have been a motive for me to choose TMG over lazer. I could have easily fabricated reasons to hop on lazer badnwagon instead of providing seemingly stupid (but personally genuine) reasons to go after TMG, whose wagon was much more difficult to complete. And since we know that lazer and I both cannot be scums, there is no logical reason for me to insist on TMG lynch over lazer lynch. Scum Harry simply would not have cared between TMG or lazer mislynch (lazer is town assuming I am scum). My reason for asking lazer to claim was based on lazer's initial post. His first post made me think that he was likely a power role. I was wrong, but my effort to not disclose this information until lazer was projected to be lynched should award me some townie points. If I was scum, hoping that lazer's first post hinted likely power role, I would have kept quiet and chose lazer over TMG or hopeless. And ultimately, I did choose lynch hopeless over lazer in the end. And while my vote only tied lazer vs. hopeless vote, given that it was made hours before the deadline where more votes were sure to come, it is hard to disagree that my vote was projected to make a difference. In addition, my previous posts outlining my lack of certainty for either lazer or hopeless lynch, I could have easily chose lazer and avoided suspicion. And as you mentioned, I even expressed that lazer was probably not the worst lynch after lazer's claim that he was not a power role. Yet, I still voted hopeless. And while my post analyzing my town and scum reads LINK I have included TMG as one of the townies, whom I suspected on day 1. This should make me suspicious, especially with TMG NK'ed on night 1. I don't have a good excuse for it, but no matter how you look at it, TMG voting for hopeless did make him strong townie. Here are some reasons you should think I am probably a town: - I prevented from medic from claiming, initially. Right now, actually, I don't think medic claiming makes much of a difference, but the fact that I thought about the different strategies to maximize town victory should provide reasons for you to believe my townness. - I also strongly pushed for two claim phase, so that the power roles would not claim unless they provided additional information would be provided. - I insisted many times for whoever got roleblocked to claim. If I was a scum, knowing that I either did not roleblock anyone or roleblocked TMG, I would have fake-claimed roleblocked. Considering I was the one who posited the possibility of scum skipping roleblock to claim roleblock, it would have been a rather safe way to be cleared - especially when the current state of the game so unfavorable to scum. Scum Harry would have claimed roleblocked. | ||
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Hapha wrote: I can't follow the logic of you voting for yourself to not force the medic to claim. On top of that, how is lynching yourself (from a VT perspective) pro-town? At the time, I thought medic not claiming was so important that I determined that it is okay to sacrifice one unconfirmed townie. My reasoning for the importance of medic's anonymity was based on the false assumption that scum would target the medic (scum would actually target DT and tracker). Under this assumption, there is a chance that we may attempt to lynch the medic amongst the unconfirmed townies, who would then have to claim. Scum would then roleblock the medic and NK the tracker. DT can still have a chance to check one person, who most likely will guarantee us the victory, but this still will not be as desirable as scum having to guess the medic to roleblock or NK. Regarding my lack of analysis on players: Since the modkill of god father and our successful lynch of mafia rolecop in hopeless, there really hasn't been much motivation to scum hunt based on scummy behaviors or actions. The more important thing at that point was to establish an optimal protocols for role-claims and night actions. When the victory seems so obvious, it is easy to lose motivation. We still have all of the power roles intact, and there is only 1 scum amongst 10 total townies. Kudos to you, actually, for persevering to continue your scum hung. Hapha wrote:The first two points don't give me a strong town read because they're fairly non-controversial/non-original issues. Multiple people in the town were posting similar ideas, and its not like Mafia would give bad advice on blues in the first place. When you first proposed power roles claiming, no one else has brought up the idea of medic claiming vanilla until needed to. Sure, you can say it's non-controversial and maybe scum Harry predicted someone else would try to stop the medic from claiming. And when I attempted to tell the power roles to claim one at a time, again no one else had brought up the idea. And sure, you can again say that it is common practice and common sense to avoid claiming until required to. Yet, these kind of reasoning can be applied to dismiss almost any pro-town actions. For example, you consistently pushed for hopeless lynch even as others expressed doubts. You did not waver once. Simple argument would be that you did your job as a townie correctly to lynch the scum. Same reasoning as above can be applied to dismiss your actions as something a scum would do win townie points. As far as my possibility of scum Harry not roleblocking anyone and deciding not to claim "roleblocked": it is not an action that I would take as a scum. Asking people to claim "roleblocked" may indeed win me some town points. But at the time, the scum's hope of winning is so bleak, winning some town points is almost futile. However, claiming "roleblocked" would have provided scum Harry with some decent chance of being cleared. It would simply be a sub-optimal play for scum Harry to choose not to claim "roleblocked". | ||
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Mackin Lazermonkey Hapahauli YourHarry Confirmed:
EvulRabbitz (Detective) JingleHell (Vanilla) | ||
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Oh well, then probability of BassinSpace being scum is exactly 50%. | ||
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##Vote BassinSpace | ||
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Second, if we let BassInSpace live, it would cause so much distraction later in the day. In fact, this would be exactly what the scum wants. Imagine scum and bassinspace to make it to LYLO! This is especially the case since medic and detective are completely useless now. We HAVE to stick with this report. If he's miller, then so be it. This does not mean we should stop discussing who is scummy. In fact, this game just got a lot more interesting but I want to fast forward time to lynch Bass to see what happens. | ||
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Though I still don't understand why the hell scum didn't roleblock you. I guess he took the "safe" way of roleblocking the medic and killing one of you. Scum is lucky if you happened to check out the miller. Anyone else, even a vanilla townie, would have given us the victory. | ||
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On July 11 2012 11:18 Hapahauli wrote: Listen, I'm all far lynching BassInSpace if he's the scummiest read we have, but it's mind-numbingly stupid to lynch him on hope and prayer. This information just gives us another out when we lynch - we win the game if a guy flips Miller OR Mafia. Lynching someone on a 50% chance is terrible. If we lynch the miller tomorrow or in the subsequent days, we can lynch Bass at a 100% chance. Even when you are scum hunting, you are doing some of that "hoping" and "praying" also. Analyzing cases, we gather evidence on why someone is more "likely" scum. And we lynch the player we think has the highest probability of being scum. We should do that, but not when the information is available to us that a will flip scum 50% of the time. Here and now, we must take that chance. It is our responsibility. I will start scum hunting more. I was guilty of not putting in the effort yesterday. But today, even if I decide that someone else was more scummy than Bass based on his previous actions, unless the evidence is overwhelmingly obvious (>50%), I will have to vote Bass. We can still scum-hunt. But please. We must lynch Bass because, if he is the miller, he will cause much distraction later in the game. He could try his best to defend himself, but it would be too late. He would be playing for the scum team. Tomorrow, we HAVE to rely on our scum hunting skills. We will all be alive tomorrow, except for Bass and Evul. If the game must continue, we will take what we are given - that we got unlucky in having to lynch the miller in Bass - and we will analyze the hell out of this game. We will read, re-read, and triple read. It will be fun. | ||
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Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players: 1/5 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (20% chance of victory) 4/5 chance of lynching townie 1/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (1/4 of 80% = 20%) Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 20% = 10%) 50% chance of victory | ||
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Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players: 1/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (25% chance of victory) 3/4 chance of lynching townie 1/3 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (1/3 of 75% = 25%) Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 50% = 25%) 75% chance of victory Lol, so it makes no difference. | ||
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On July 11 2012 12:35 Hapahauli wrote: I'll double check my math, but there's no way it can be 50% for situation two, given that one of our main assumptions is that BassInSpace has a 50% chance of being mafia. That's a baseline of 50% no matter what day we lynch. In addition, we lynch other members increasing our chance over 50% Yep, that's exactly what I thought. But I fixed it. Since we are assuming we are not lynching Bass, we have 1/4 chance today to lynch miller or mafia rather than 1/5. | ||
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He can say to X: "Look I am pretty sure you are not mafia and you know it. As far as you are concerned, there is 50% chance Y being the scum. I also have 50% chance of being mafia. So it should be OK for you to pick between me and Y." But this would be flawed, because probability of Y being mafia is actually 25%. So this could possibly screw our plan. | ||
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On July 11 2012 12:50 BassInSpace wrote: On ky phone now, I must of course be the miller. If there atre Any cases against me I will respond to them when I get bavk as well as providing my thoughts on the current situation. Hehe. Too bad, you are either getting ignored until day 5 or you are getting lynched today | ||
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our chance of winning would go up to Situation 1, we lynch Bass D3. 50% chance of Bass flipping Mafia (50% chance of victory) 50% chance of bass flipping miller 1/3 chance of lynching correct D4 (1/3 of 50% = 16.7%) 2/3 chance of mislynching D4 ---> 1/2 chance of lynching correct D5 (1/2 of 2/3 of 50% = 16.7%) Chance of winning: 83.3% :D | ||
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Cool! Mod kill Mod kill :D LOL Actually would this make things less interesting. But no more mod kill please. More than 1 mod kill = bad :D OK I should start posting some content. | ||
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On July 12 2012 04:11 Lazermonkey wrote: So my contribution the last couple of days have been lacking but that is comming to an end now. First off, killing Bass purely based on the fact that he is Miller/scum is imo terribad. Saying that we have 50% percent chance of getting scum if we lynch him is simply not true. If we would have this information on the start of D1, then yes, he would have 50% chance of being scum. But this is not the start of D1. Let's consider a very hypothetical scenario: We know one of player A and player B is town and the other one is scum. player A acts in a town way, and player B doesn't. A confirmed DT says that player A showed as scum in a setup where millers are possible. Would you just lynch player A because of this? No, you wouldn't. To be completely honest, I haven't done any hardcore analysis of Bass filter. As a matter of fact, it almost seems like noone have done that. So what I ask you guys to do now is to take a VERY close look at his filter and decide what you think. As always, try to do this in an unbiased way. What I don't want: People who simply puts their vote on Bass ''just because he has 50% chance if flipping scum''. Come on. In your scenario, detective has no power because whoever he checked out, he would have received "guilty". Lynching either A or B would have equal probability of being scum, exactly 50%, regardless of detective's night report. Funny thing about scum hunting is that a player who acts scummy are often town and vice versa. In average, we hope that identifying scummy motivations in players' posts would allow us to choose players who are more likely to be scums. But there is a limit. In all my experience of playing scum, so many times I have been wrong lynching a player who I thought was scummiest. I continue to try to improve my scum hunting skills, but I am not confident that I will be able to identify scum 50% of the times in our current scenario. Regardless, as Hapha and I have previously discussed, it does not matter whether we lynch Bass now or later - as long as we lynch him today or on day 5. Posts like these, however, makes me get this over with and lynch Bass whether or not he is miller. | ||
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On July 12 2012 05:15 Hapahauli wrote: To add to the above, I'd lynch Mackin and YourHarry (for reasons previously stated) in a heartbeat before we lynch Bass. I tried to answer your questions. Let me know what questions were unanswered or not satisfied with. I strongly recommend lynching Bass today. For reasons previously stated. I am willing to repeat these reasons and discuss them further upon requests. | ||
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There is literally 50% chance that Bass is scum. If there are outstanding evidence for Bass's townniess, let's even suppose that this chance can go down to 45%. But scum hunting is never this accurate. Not 45% if we have to choose one player out of four or five. Many of your thought that Zenman was the scum. There was so much "evidence" toward it. You all voted him. Guess what, he's a medic. Many of you thought that Release was the scum. Again, there was a LOT of "evidence" that he was scum. I voted him. Most of us did. I still believe scum hunting is useful. It is the one of the means which townies try to achieve victory. While scum hunting is the most common strategy and the only ability available to vanilla towns, but there are other ways to find scum. Stronger. More reliable. One mean include detective's power to check out a player's alignment. It turns out that his power has been sort of compromised because he unluckily chose either scum or miller. But even with this reduction in power, his power is still considerably stronger. His report, which will be his last, is too strong to go to a waste. We need to lynch Bass. Now or later. I strongly prefer now, because I think this argument will be forgotten later in the day. | ||
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On July 12 2012 05:47 Lazermonkey wrote: No, this is just plain false. We are playing mafia, not maths. Lynching B is better because he is most likely to be scum while A is most likely to be miller. Whattiwhatti? So basically you are saying people who are playing in a townie way(like Bass for example...) should be lynched because that's how mafia play? This doesn't make any sense at all. Also you say your not confident in scum hunting. Why do you say this? You are voting Bass really fast but yet you say this. Are you afraid that we will be comming after you when Bass flips miller? No, we don't want to lynch Bass at all. It's quite clear to me that he is miller. If you don't agree with this, feel free to point out the scummy things in his filter that I seem to have missed. What exactly is false about it? We are playing mafia, you are correct. Math can apply to everywhere. Including mafia. We don't HAVE to use what we know about math, but if applying what we know about math can help us win, then we should. I am not saying that people who act townie should be lynched. I said there is a limit to how much scum hunting can help us. Yes, I voted Bass because he was checked out "red". I was not voting Bass because my scum hunting told me that I think Bass is mafia. If I was afraid that you guys will come after me when Bass flips miller, then I would have voiced my opinion that we should ignore what the detective has told us and continue scum hunting as if we didn't know that information. How is it quite clear that he is a miller. Was it clear to you that ZenMan was a scum until he confessed medic? Was it clear to you that Release was scum? | ||
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On July 12 2012 06:05 Hapahauli wrote: [/b]First of all, calling it a 50% chance to lynch Bass is inherently fallicious. There's either a 100% chance he's scum, or a 100% chance he's miller. Calling it 50% is a vast oversimplification of the situation. It is not fallacious at all. Our mod knows for sure whether Bass is scum or miller. From his perspective, Bass is either 100% scum or 100% miller. From our perspective, 50% of the time he is miller. Other 50% of the time he is a scum. That is, if we were to lynch Bass today, we have 50% chance of winning. This, you agreed with. And of course, I wasn't saying that Bass is half miller and half scum. You know that. Before I continue to respond to everyone's reply, I want to ask you one thing. You guys are saying that 50% does not matter. The probability does not matter. Lazer is arguing that this is "not math". What if there were 3 scums left and 1 miller left? And detective's "guilty" report implied 75% chance of Bass flipping scum. Would you still ignore what implications of detective's finding? What if it was 90%? Somehow, I am afraid that I will continue to hear lazer argue that "90% doesn't matter. we should still find someone who is scummy". A player can be scummy for many reasons. Scuminess encrypted in his responses is what you guys are going after. But a player can also be scummy because he received a "guilty" report from the detective. | ||
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On July 12 2012 06:05 Hapahauli wrote: Do you really think there aren't more suspicious players than Bass? Who is your strongest scumread? I only have 4 choices. I do find Makin not really participating suspicious. I would think that the scum, when it was 1 vs. 10, would have been very discouraged to continue playing, which explains lack of post. He also was around night time, because he admitted that he thought he made a post during night. He however did not make a post. This confusion could have arised from his experience of PMing with the mod about the game during night. Plus our mod's refusal to modkill him. I should know better that this is a null tell - from mod's killing the godfather - but can't stop it from lingering in my head. And I wouldn't do this - for the spirit of the game - but if I really wanted to win and was about to get lynched, I may attempt to try to get modkilled so that townies get additional chance at lynching. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 12 2012 07:31 Hapahauli wrote: Ok good - I'll clear up my thoughts on his post. Lazer brings up some pretty good/suspicious points about YourHarry's post: 1) There's no reason a townie should ever discourage analysis EVER. Even if his justiciation was to push the Bass lynch, this is still incredibly suspicious. 2) Lazer attacks YourHarry's logic about Bass - as previously stated, lynching Bass solely on his guilty check, especially in light of his pro-town behavior - is just stuipd. There's even more in that post that Lazer didn't even mention, but him calling attention to a suspicious post is far from "bullshit." I underlined the point that I wanted to respond to above. What exactly is stupid about it. Can you put it in logical format? Keep in mind that our goal is to win. What if Evul's check on Bass meant that Bass is 90% scum. Should we still ignore that. And I was not trying to discourage analysis. I simply admitted that its powers are limited, as we already know from our attempts at mislynches. If you re-read what I typed or quote me, this should be clear. If not, it's my fault. I am not trying to discourage analysis. And why would scum Harry insist lynching Bass? Especially when it became apparent that people's do not like my supporting the idea of lynching Bass based on his guilty report, what exactly does scum Harry have to gain by continuing to insist this. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 12 2012 07:48 Hapahauli wrote: If someone has behaving the exact opposite of scummy, I'm not going to vote him/her, simple. Throwing out unrealistic percentages does nothing to justify Bass's Lynch. You want to lynch Bass? Come up with a case against him. Find something suspicious, build a case, and we'll listen to you. If you can't, there's no way in hell I'll lynch him. I threw in the unrealistic percentage to make a point that it is all about the probability. If it was a fact that player X had 90% chance of being scum, would you lynch him if he acted townie all game? The answer should be yes, because scum hunting is reliable 90% of the time. Here we are dealing with 50%, not 90%. But this is quantitative, not qualitative, difference. For example, if there were 4 millers in the game, and evul's report implied 20% chance of Bass being scum, then yes I would not think much of it. I would put more eggs in the scum hunting basket. At 50%, it is clear to me at least, what we should do. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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Because there is miller, it is now 50% true. If we can find scums better than 50% of the time, then we should ignore this. However, if our ability to find scum is significantly lower than 50%, the detective report should override our decisions on who we think are scum. Whether we can find scum more than 50% of the time could be up for an argument. The rest, really, is not. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:02 Hapahauli wrote: We went over this before - in a strictly mathematical perspective, given our assumptions lynching Bass now vs. later makes no difference (75% chance given our set of assumptions). So why is it so clear to you to lynch Bass? It literally doesn't matter when we chose to lynch him, and there's no way in hell I'm going to lynch someone who's acted very pro-town so far. If it clearly doesn't matter to you, why does it matter if we lynch him today or on day 5? I explained my reasons why I wanted to lynch Bass now. Because if he survives until day 5, he may get out of it. The concern is that people will forget and let Bass live. Also, if we agree that Bass WILL be lynched on day 5, our actions are forced on day 5. I rather have the most important decision to be made on the last day, when we have the most information possible. Failing to find scum or miller by day 5 and then auto lynching Bass on day 5 is not appealing to me. You cited that not saving Bass lynch until the end will provide more discussion. And I thought this also. But actually, there will be same number of days and nights, and same number of players at each night. If anything, if we save Bass lynch until day 5, we will have no function discussion on day 5. On the other hand, even if decide to lynch Bass, we can continue discussing who is scummiest. | ||
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YourHarry
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Evul and zenman, please back me on this. Evul, I know that this will be your last day, but do read my previous posts. I feel they will make sense. Makin........ seriously. Post something. I can't really ask Bass to do anything else than vote against me, definitely not when he's miller. | ||
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YourHarry
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And it is true. The probability is not exactly 50%. The number should be adjusted based on our "reads" but again our reads should be able to change that number too much, unless there is like overwhelming evidence. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 12 2012 08:47 Hapahauli wrote: If reads can change the number, why don't we try to make that number a bit more accurate then? Why don't you dig through Bass's filter and see if we can make this a bit more accurate? This is the last I'll say on the subject of the whole 50% thing - you're putting blind faith in probability. This is a game of analysis, not coinflips. You continue to make a reference to "coinflips". Scumhunting and deciding who to lynch IS based on our perception of probability of each player being scum. But here is a difference. Scumhunting and your so called "game analysis" is not going to give you a coinflip. I wish it did though. And yes, as I have previously stated, analyzing players' post is an important tool and the only tool townies have. But when we start ignoring numbers that power roles give us, we are playing with a big handicap. And you keep bringing up that it doesn't matter if we lynch Bass today or on day 5. And while I'd much prefer Bass lynch today, the current discussion seems to think that Bass can be given an excuse to never be lynched. Otherwise, time would be better spent on talking about other players' scuminess. Bass "should" die anyway, right? This is frustrating and I do not understand why people cannot understand we need to lynch Bass. But I want to win. Keep arguing my point when it's obviously not going to be heard is not going to help my cause. I will force myself to come up with a case against Bass, and hopefully I can convince even myself that Bass is "definitely" scum. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:27 Hapahauli wrote: Scum would want to push a mislynch, especially of a player with a very pro-town history. Scum's best hope is to create an end-game scenario with a bunch of suspicious people. Scum Harry would LOVE a mislynch, OF COURSE. But scum Harry would MUCH MUCH MORE PREFER A LYNCH of an UNCONFIRMED TOWNIE. WAY WAY MORE THAN LYNCH OF BASS, A POSSIBLE SCUM/MILLER. | ||
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YourHarry
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Nope. Wasn't. I was just ISOing him. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 12 2012 14:36 Hapahauli wrote: Harry. There's one scum left. If you are scum, you know he's innocent, therefore you push for a mislynch. Its pretty basic. I really can't follow you here... Yes, say I am scum. I know he is innocent. But it's much better to have a guy who is "known" to run red later in the day rather than having him get mislynched an flip town. Do you think scum Harry would want Bass on Day 5 with me or not? | ||
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YourHarry
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I would push for Mackin's lynch. He hasn't posted much and seems hiding of late. I previously posted a weak case against him, but if he's alive LYLO, it would not be good news as he's inactivity may get him modkilled, which may equal instant loss, and he hasn't have many posts for others to analyze on (though BASS should die). Also I don't feel like he's keeping up with the game. ##VOTE Mackin | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 12 2012 15:00 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't get it. Scum want non-scum dead. Bass is an easy bandwagon target for scum, since it allows them an opportunity to lynch someone who's acted pro town with little or no analysis. The sooner they get rid of him the better. I will agree with your vote on Mackin though. He hasn't been speaking at all (lurking), he really only posts when he's called out/asked to (keeping the town on a need-to-know basis), and his posts have been all summary/finger-points. ##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote Mackin That is my point. Bass should be an easy bandwagon on Day 5. That is why scum Harry or any scum would want Bass alive, if possible, until Day5. Scum makes it into day 5 with Bass, there is such a high chance for Bass the miller to be mislynched. But in the end, we showed that mathematically it doesn't matter for town whether we kill Bass first or last. It also shouldn't matter to scum. But if scum was faced with strong opposition against Bass lynch, he would have backed off easily to find another mislynch. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 12 2012 15:00 Hapahauli wrote: I still don't get it. Scum want non-scum dead. Bass is an easy bandwagon target for scum, since it allows them an opportunity to lynch someone who's acted pro town with little or no analysis. The sooner they get rid of him the better. I will agree with your vote on Mackin though. He hasn't been speaking at all (lurking), he really only posts when he's called out/asked to (keeping the town on a need-to-know basis), and his posts have been all summary/finger-points. ##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote Mackin Sick feeling. Sum Haph would want me, Bass, and Haph in LYLO. | ||
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YourHarry
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##Vote BassinSpace | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 12 2012 20:53 Lazermonkey wrote: He is saying that we should rely on a 50% chance (which isn't even correct, but let's ignore that for now)rather then regular scum hunting becuase we have been wrong about Release and Zen. This is while we have actually had 50% correct lynches based on regular scum hunting. About 50% IS correct. We can only estimate this number based on how scummy Bass has been acting. Second, I am not saying scum hunting unreliable because you guys were wrong about Release and Zen. I am saying: scum hunting is inherently not as reliable. Look back at you experiences. Sometimes we are right, but often we are not. I was just citing Release and Zen as examples to support that scum hunting is NATURALLY not that reliable. Not close to 50%. Even if we were right every single time so far, that does not change the fact that scum hunting is unreliable. Just like, when the coin lands heads 3 times, the probability land head is still 50%. And while we technically lynched correct 50% of the times, we were correct in our scum hunting 33% of the time. ZenMan was about to get lynched - until he claimed medic. This counts toward unsuccessful scum hunting. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 02:18 Hapahauli wrote: It is not a 50/50 chance! *Foaming at the mouth* Calling it 50/50 is a vast oversimplification of things, especially if he's acting pro town. He's either 100% mafia, or 100% miller. Based on his pro-town actions, what do you think is more likely? It IS 50/50, except for the minor adjustments based on "scum hunting". He is either mafia or miller, OF COURSE. But 50% of the time he is 100% mafia, and 50% of the time he is 100% miller. In other words, he is mafia 50% of the time. I already said this. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 06:53 Lazermonkey wrote: Jesus christ guys. My argument regarding the 50% regular scum hunting success rate was just an example to show how flawed Harry's logic was. Also scum reads become reliable the longer the game goes. The reason for this is that we obviously get more info the longer the game goes. I hope everyone agrees with this. Thus we should not lynch into Bass. He have been playing very townie all game. Please re-read what I have typed. Please re-think what you are saying. And please, tell me how my logic was flawed. | ||
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YourHarry
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What's the probability that Makin is scum? | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 07:30 Lazermonkey wrote: I have read. I don't agree. Your logic is flawed because when Bass fucking flips fucking miller, what do we do? Where do we go from here? Because the only thing we get out of this lynch is that 5 people were relying more on coinflipping rather than scum reads. This plan is based on that Bass flips scum. If he doesn't, we are fucked. So you are saying that my logic is flawed because we are fucked when Bass flips scum... But IF Bass is scum, we are fucked UNLESS we lynch him And there is a high probability that Bass IS scum. Based on detective's report. AND even if Bass is miller, we still have two additional attempts to lynch the scum. And you seem to think coin flipping is bad... If I could get a coinflip on scum hunting, I would be the greatest mafia player ever in this world. By Far. Hands down. We WANT coinflips. We WOULD BE ECSTATIC! (Except for the fact that we would be even MORE ECSTATIC if evul checked out one of the townies that would have given us 100% victory ) | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 07:38 Lazermonkey wrote: The only non-confirmed players left is: Me Hapa Bass Mackin YourHarry I know I am town. For reasons I've already said(read my filter) I have a hard chance to belive that neither Bass nor Hapa is scum. So one of you guys must be scum. Both through the process of elimination and due to the fact that you are playing the most scummy atm. I don't like speaking in percentage when talking scum reads, I am however very sure one of you is scum. And to me, Harry is a bit more likely to be scum than Mackin. I can elaborate why I think so, but I'd rather not. There are far more important matters atm. Why don't you like in speaking in percentages? Please estimate the probability of Hapa, Bass, Mackin, and YourHarry being scum. I know exactly why you don't want to give percentages... It would make all of this argument in lynching Bass foolish. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 07:50 Lazermonkey wrote: Okay guys, just because, who are your n2 scum read then? aka who should get lynched if/when Bass flips miller. Just curious... Honestly, I do not think you are scum. I would be comfortable with Makin then Hapha lynch. In either order. And this is not because I think they are particularly scummy. This is because I know there is ONE scum, among Makin, Hapha, and Lazer. And Lazer, I have the greatest town read on you. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 08:56 Lazermonkey wrote: Yes, but this is What I mean. This plan is Only great if he is scum. You even say that youself. And I don't see a ReasoN for him being scum atm. I just don't. And no, as I've SaiD before. The DT getting red check on him means that he is either scum or miller. nothing more. In a game where WE had almost won after N1, I don't like to flip coins, as this is the Only ReaL Way WE can lose. Of course WE would be worse off if Bass is scum, but it would not be the End of the world. And exactly. DT getting red check means he is either scum or miller. Nothing more. Exactly. But this nothing more means he has about 50% ChAnCe of being scum. Which WE need to take. And yes, WE almost won after N1, but WE made mistakes since then:
So we are not as well off as we once were. There would be about 75% of us winning. And we should start with a coinflip in Bass. If we are wrong, we still have two attempts to find the scum. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 09:00 Lazermonkey wrote: No because it's a good argument to justify misslynches. When Bass flips miller in an hour, noone will be responsible because they will just say ''Oh, he had 50% chance of flipping scum. We were unlucky'' when there were in fact no luck involved. However, since your so handsome, I'll do it anyway. Bass:5% Hapa:5% Mackin:40% You:50% Wow If you actually believed this, then it would make sense to argue everything that you have been arguing about.Except... I have hard time understanding how you think I am scum 50% of the time. Haha. I hope you change your mind soon, because I shouldn't be lynched. My probability would look something like this: Bass: 40% (Initial 50% based on detective report, but he really act scummy.) Hapha: 20% Mackin: 30% Lazer: 10% | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 09:00 Lazermonkey wrote: No because it's a good argument to justify misslynches. When Bass flips miller in an hour, noone will be responsible because they will just say ''Oh, he had 50% chance of flipping scum. We were unlucky'' when there were in fact no luck involved. I agree. If Bass flips miller, no one WILL be responsible. I know this sounds scummy because I was the one who insisted on Bass lynch all day, but it's a chance that we MUST take to maximize our chance of winning. | ||
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YourHarry
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Do you think this was the best option? | ||
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YourHarry
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I don't think Hapha is scum either. If Bass is miller, we lynch Makin. Tough to choose between Hapha and Lazer though. There is one reason why I don't think Hapha is a scum, which I will reveal later. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 09:18 Lazermonkey wrote: Probebly because he was dumb XD. but, no, I cannot possibly know. I figured he would kill DT RB tracker or vice verse, which I think is mathematically better and was suprised by this. But this is just WIFOM and post game discussion really That's the thing. I don't think Hapha would have done this, which is why I don't think Hapha is scum. He might have realized that I would think this and intentionally made these night actions. But it is so risky because detective could have won us the game instantly. We just got extremely unlucky. This almost makes me think we need to kill Makin then Lazer. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 09:21 Lazermonkey wrote: Why not now? You will not get lynched/nked untill at least the lynch D4. Because I wanted to hear your response first. See above post for why I think Hapha is town. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 09:29 Lazermonkey wrote: hmm, fair enough point. What I find abit funny is that your main reason for thinking Hapa is town is this rather than his play in D1 o.O... I don't trust my scum hunting. Have you played mafia on forums much? I don't know about you, but I am wrong often. If Bass is miller, I will try my best though. | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 09:41 marvellosity wrote: How could it possibly matter? They're dead. Well he left one final message after he died | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 09:46 JingleHell wrote: And if he breadcrumbed in his GG post, it would be a flagrant rule violation. True. And I should stop talking about it DONE | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 09:59 Lazermonkey wrote: To late of a response from you to comment anyway. Bass is dead now. He will flip miller. I don't see how you can say that I've been making friends in this game, can you clarify this abit. I think at least Jingle would disargee somewhat at this point. How do you know he will flip miller. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 13 2012 10:03 Lazermonkey wrote: BECAUSE I AM SCUM LOLOL. If you want serious answer, please read my filter. LOL LOL. I kind of hope you are wrong, but part of me doesn't want to see this game end, yet. LOL | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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I smiled. I am smiling now. LOL LOL. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 10:07 Hapahauli wrote: Heh. Guess lynching Mackin or Bass would have worked. GG folks. GG and true, Mackin lynch would have given us the victory. But it's not the end result that justify the means. Bass could have been the miller, but the right move was still lynch him. | ||
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YourHarry
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LOL LOL. I like the ending. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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Also, why did you RB medic? This guaranteed one investigation, which three out of five times would have lead to "no guilty", which would have guaranteed town the victory. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 10:44 marvellosity wrote: Yeah, I hadn't realised that a green check would be so good for town. Problem is if he doesn't roleblock medic then tracker/dt might get saved tracker getting a negative result is effectively the same as a green check, so... Ya, he had to take a chance and RB tracker and NK DT, or vice versa. Half of the times, he should be able to kill DT and RB tracker. Other half of the times, he will lose his NK and townies would get one investigation. But taking this chance, I think, would have been better than ensuring tracker NK and one guaranteed investigation. In fact, evul should have checked whoever is least scummy (rather than most scummy), since he doesn't want to get a guilty report. Maybe he thought Bass was least scummy, I dunno. | ||
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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It has been mentioned several times, I think, including in my post that clarified tracker was stronger than the detective. | ||
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YourHarry
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You made the right choice role blocking the medic and NKing gthe tracker. | ||
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YourHarry
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Probability of scum win if RB medic and NK the tracker: 1/5 of the time, DT will check out the miller. And in this situation, as we established during the game, there is 25% chance of scum win. 1/5 of the time DT will check out the scum. Assuming people are reasonable and lynch miller/scum possibility, there is 0% chance of scum win. 3/5 of the time, DT will check out vanilla townie. There is 3/4*2/3*1/2 probability of scum win. 25%. So overall, by RBing the medic, scum had 1/5*.25 + 3/5*.25 = 20% chance of winning. Not bad. Maybe you did the right thing. | ||
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
But a correction.1/5 of the time, DT will check out the miller. In this situation, there is 3/4 * 2/3 = 50% chance of winning. So overall, you had 25% chance of winning. | ||
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YourHarry
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50% of the times, you would instantly lose (if you get it wrong). 50% of the time, you would get it right and town will get no info and scum gets a NK. This way you had: 4/5 * 3/4 * 2/3 = 0.4. So you had 20% chance of winning. So you DID the right thing Good job. | ||
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YourHarry
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I made two stupid mistakes this game that went unnoticed most of the time: 1. Thinking that town check = instant win 2. Thinking that RBing DT and NKing the Tracker (or vice versa) is better strategy. Actually #2 depended on #1... | ||
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YourHarry
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On July 13 2012 23:08 Evulrabbitz wrote: People have repeatedly been saying that my read on you was stupid and I should have gone for townie reads. I don't see why. JieXian said it was stupid, for a different reason I think. I was wondering if you thought Bass was town. I never called it stupid But I was wrong anyway.If you ended up investigating a townie, instead of a scum, then our probability of winning would have been: 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2) = 75% Of course, investigating the scum (and assuming that everyone is reasonable enough to lynch whoever is reported to be "red), means that we would win 100% of the time. Although we almost didn't lynch your target So perfect job on the investigation. It guaranteed us the victory. At least, should have, in every situation. | ||
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