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On July 07 2012 13:03 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2012 12:50 JieXian wrote:
Oh ya and if anyone wants to check Lazer, don't because there's a high chance he's godfather if he's mafia Its interesting to bring up that the Detective is not a very useful role now. Even if a player shows up red, there's still a 50% chance he's townie (miller). As for checking lazer, don't. We have a lot of posts on lazer, and it would be much more useful for the tracker and detective to use their night actions on people with a lower post count.
50% is still very good. And honestly, lynching a miller isn't a terrible thing anyway.
On another note:
I think based on the the time the votes were made TMG is cleared (despite what I said earlier), for now. He made his vote when laser and hopeless had equal number of votes at 4. This occurred 90 minutes before deadline.
For similar reason, this also clears evulrabbitz. After TMG's vote, lazer obviously voted for hopeless, which tied their votes at 5 a piece. Evulrabbitz then broke the tie, voting for evulrabbitz, 23 minutes before the deadline.
Above two arguments would only hold if lazer was not scum. And if lazer was scum, he's probably not a god father because hopeless did vote against him to tie the vote counts. He did this very close to the deadline, and if lazer was godfather, I don't think hopeless would have risked someone else lynching godfather in lazer. Hopeless would have just chosen to not post. However, it is true that hopeless may not have thought about this. Only other exception to this would be that evulrabbitz is one of the scum team and hopeless and evulrabbitz discussed in quiet talk that evulrabbitz would vote against hopeless to prevent lazer godfather mislynch. This again is not likely as evulrabbitz's vote comes 29 minutes after lazer's vote, rather than immediately. If someone else had voted against lazer, he would have accrued 6 votes first, and evulrabbitz could not have prevented lazer lynch.
And I think Release is probably town based on his suspicion of Lazer, Jingle, and me being mafia. Scum, I think, would have acknowledged possibility of hopeless being mafia or at least not post at all. Plus, release's response seemed genuine. However, this conclusion is significantly weaker than first two town reads above, at least on factual grounds.
So town reads: hapahuli, TMG, evulrabbitz
Also (again assuming that lazer is not a scum), I would have expected scums would have tried to get on lazer's badwagon. Of course there are exceptional possibilities:
1. they were just not around during the deadline
2. they were already voting for lazer
3. they feared that changing their votes would make them suspicious
I have no idea about #1. But aside from Khorrus, who was not around ever, Mackin who had his vote on me could have easily switched his vote without buying suspicion. When the number of votes between lazer and hopeless were so close, I think scum Makin would have contributed toward lazer lynch (again, given that lazer is not scum and Makin was around during deadline).
This leaves the following possible scum list:
JingleHell
JieXian
The_Zen_Man
Bassinspace (although he had his vote on hopeless, he was not able to change it anyway because it would brought so much suspicion last minute)
Also, given that Khorrus will be modkilled within 24 hours if no replacement is found, I would think he's probably not scum, especially after scum got lynched D1. We all want good, sort of balanced game from the observers' point of view.
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EDBWOP (Edits bolded):
For similar reason, this also clears evulrabbitz. After TMG's vote, lazer, as expected, voted for hopeless, which tied their votes at 5 a piece. Evulrabbitz then broke the tie, voting for hopeless, 23 minutes before the deadline. At these time points which were so close to the deadline, it was clear that each of their votes would make a definite impact. Especially since there was no clear consensus on hopeless being the scum (except for hapahuli, even people who were voting for him, myself included, projected their doubt on hopeless being scum but that it was the better choice between lazer and hopeless) it would not have been that suspicious to place their lynch deciding vote on lazer, rather than hopeless.
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I am OK with JingleHell lynch day2. After my initial quick vote on Hopeless beginning of day1, JingleHell quickly tried to reverse the bandwagon against me. He also belongs to the possible scum list, outlined in my previous post.
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On July 07 2012 15:01 Hapahauli wrote:
@ YourHarry - Lynching anyone but mafia is pretty fucking terrible. Your analysis on the recent vote as it pertains to LazerMonkey's innocence is very well thought out. On voting habits, TMG and evulrabbitz check out very well, since they had the chance to swing the vote over to Lazer as opposed to hopeless.
I highly disagree on your stance on Bass_in_Space for now, as he had the opportunity to join the strong bandwagon on Lazer a few hours before the deadline and didn't take it. In addition, we cannot make a judgement on the guilt/innocence of Khorrus, since he literally made two posts. The first was fluff, and the second was him asking for a replacement. The second post is key here.
First 50% of lynching scum, at least in this stage, is wonderful. Second, power role mislynch is much worse than vanilla town mislynch which is significantly worse than miller lynch. This is especially the case, now that mafia role cop is no more. Whether having a miller alive or not is beneficial is arguable. Mislynch earlier is usually better than mislynch later. And detective that checks out scum in miller later in game could be worse than miller mislynch in early game.
Regarding Bass_in_Space, you may be right. He had the opportunity to change, but it should be considered that it would have been more difficult for him to do so, at least compared to others who had their votes on players other than lazer or hopeless.
My argument about Khorrus mostly relies on mod's willingness to modkill. Not sure if it's a good style to talk about it here.
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Release:
I maintain that it was not an OMGUS battle, at least from my perspective. I had valid reason, at least from what little was available at the time, to suspect Jingle. And if Jingle is scum, my quick reconciliation is not necessarily scummy. At best, it's WIFOM. One can argue that scums would be hesitant to dismiss each other's scuminess, in fear that 1) obvious buddying may make both of them suspicious, exactly how you are suspecting both of us 2) other's scum flip will incriminate them.
Either way, my actions on end of day 1 to place the one of the deciding votes on Hopeless (especially when I previously expressed my opinion that I didn't think hopeless was particularly scummy, I could have easily justified my vote against someone else) and my willingness to vote against Jingle now should make me unlikely to be scum.
Also, in regards to miller providing a difficulty for town victory: miller counters mafia role cop and detective is soft countered by miller. Mafia role cop is gone and detective is still alive. So, miller's value to town is at extreme minimum. Of course, if detective was nonexistant, miller would be as good as vanilla townie.
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EDBWOP:
Actually, miller could be somewhat useful if the last mafia standing is the godfather. In such a case, any "innocent" investigation would be a null-tell, and "guilty" investigation would mean miller, a proven townie.
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On July 08 2012 00:33 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +but look, if you kept your vote on jingle for example, Mackin or Khorrus could "magically" apear and vote for Lazer
but by voting on Hopeless, the two of them needed to vote for lazer.. and i couldn't see Khorrus returning That is true. I thought my vote was the last possible. Regardless, it does not weaken my case, it does rather the opposite.
I stand corrected. Evul's vote was 13 minutes before the deadline, and as he admits, he thought it was the last vote possible. He's basically admitting that his vote was useless, still he felt inclined to switch his vote. Combined with the fact that his previous postings do not talk about his preference for lazer vs. hopeless lynch. In fact, he never really brings up his reads on either player. The act of suddenly changing his vote last minute, when hopeless lynch was already evident, resembles classic case of bussing and is scummy.
Thus top two lynch candidates:
Evul
Jingle
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Quick reply from the toilet:
Sorry I was confused. You did have the chance to change your vote to lynch lazer. And it would not have been that suspicious as you had your initial vote on someone other than hopeless.
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On July 08 2012 03:45 The_Zen_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2012 02:17 Hapahauli wrote:Regarding EvulRabbit's vote (and WIFOM/logical choice) - I strongly believe Evul as Mafia would have swung the vote into Lazer's camp. If lazer got lynched and flipped green, it would have thrown the town into absolute chaos. We would have so many targets to chose from, that the three mafia could bandwagon and plurality lynch the non-mafia very easily. @THE_ZEN_MANOn July 07 2012 19:15 The_Zen_Man wrote:
Cant say im too suprised, as my choice was between hope and lazer, and they were about equally scummy too me(lazer obvously more). But for now, lets just wait out the night. We're not content to just "wait out the night" - we need to organize the town, pressure suspicious players, and make reads so we don't take our opinions to the grave. ...and for the 30th time, why is Lazer scummy to you?!?!?!?!?!? I wrote a pretty long post HERE discussing why your suspicions are baseless, yet you're still throwing this around? I want some legitimate answers. What i meant was that we should give the mafia as little information as possible. I know we need to make reads and stuff, but a good way of not letting your opinons go to the grave and not letting mafia get any information is to post just before the deadline. That way, we have your opinions, and mafia cant use that information in time. Concerning Lazermonkey, i will answer them d2. I could use the method i described above to do that, but the deadline will be 3 am in sweden, and i dont want to stay up that long.
From kindle:
We have limited time, especially since people live in diff time zone. And by forcing discussions we may be able to reverse engineer likely scums from who gets targeted. At least we can discuss why someone was targeted in relation to night discussion. And possibly provide more info to detective nurse and tracker.
Personally I sort of convinced by jingle. Tho I would have expected jingle to dare detective to check him. If hes scum hes prob not godfather
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Fair. I will take the time to more deeply analyze his answers as well.
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On July 08 2012 05:23 Hapahauli wrote:
Oh wow I got sniped. GG harry =P
Lol. This gave me the chills. I thought you got your night report to find out that you were targeted or something. In fact, you were talking about me beating you in posting on the top of the page.
No role fishing here. No scum slip here.
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On July 08 2012 10:03 Mackin wrote:
No way! I was gonna post saying if Khorrus is scum it would ruin game... damn man it's almost too easy of a game.
A couple of pages back, this is exactly what I wrote. Wow. Respect to the mod for making this kill. Seriously, I thought mod would only do this if modkill wouldn't make the game significantly less interesting. Kudos.
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Haha. TMG is genuis. He was a vanilla townie but he left enough breadcrumbs for scum to target him. Good job TMG!
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EDBWOP: I am pretty sure scum thought he was the nurse.
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Medic should claim vanilla townie for now.
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Also, detective and tracker should claim first. If either of these power roles got a positive result, they should post immediately. If not, they should wait to see if the other one got the positive result (so within next 12 hours or so).
After 12 hours, they should post the negative result, but in order. Detective should post first, and the tracker should only post if he targeted someone other than whom detective has targeted. Otherwise he should keep quiet and claim vanilla townie.
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The reason why medic shouldn't claim is obvious. Night2, the scum would roleblock medic and nightkill the detective. Medic role claiming does not allow us to gather any additional information on alignment of other players. However, this means that we must come up with a consensus on who we want to lynch way prior to the deadline so that medic does have a chance to roleclaim if somehow he gets picked to be lynched.
The reason for power role claiming immediately if they received the positive result is also evident. This is because what we will do today would be clearly decided: lynch whoever received the positive result. This also allows medic to anonymously protect the powerrole who got the positive result.
The reason for claiming in order is because we don't want two power roles to reveal their identity unless it gives us additional information. This prevents second power role role claiming just in case they targeted the same player at night. I think detective claiming first makes sense, because it is a more important role - so this allows medic to protect him at night.
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Release, on page 1, it outlines that there is one detective, medic, tracker, and miller.
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If the last mafia member X roleblocks player A and kills player B, would tracker C upon targeting X receive two results: A and B?
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This is what I propose:
Phase 1. From now to July 8, 20:00.
1. Vanilla townies + Medic: do post, but do not claim.
Detective + Tracker: claim if you received the positive result. Otherwise, do not claim.
Phase 2. Until Day 2 deadline.
1. Vanilla townies + Medic: do post, but do not claim
Detective: claim and report.
2. Tracker: claim if you targeted a different player than whom detective targeted.
. Vanilla townies + Medic: claim vanilla townies
Our own deadline system:
Decide who we are going to lynch by 10 hours before actual deadline, July 9, 23:00
The person about to get lynched should claim.
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EPT
