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iGrok: I sent in the actions. If you change them I may or may not see that in time to edit. Have to go and cook, eat and spend time with the gf, so not sure I'll be at the computer for 2 hours.
On July 03 2012 04:26 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 04:15 kingdedede wrote:On July 03 2012 04:09 iGrok wrote: It's all about how difficult it is to lynch them. There are a lot of things that are -1kp in this game. Cutting everyone down from 3 to 2.5 is very nice for us because then it only takes 2 actions to kill them instead of 3 (or two lynches) Ah, that makes a lot more sense. It's all about the vig shots. While scum kp is also 1, the chance of scum shooting someone who just got lynched is pretty small: why would they bother shooting someone who got lynched (aka: looks scummy)? However, it allows us to vig shoot someone who was lynched and not waste 2 lynches on it. Bringing down everybody's stock sounds like a good idea. How can you be agreeing with this? iGrok you've hosted this before I feel like your giant cred post at the very beginning was an attempt to make everyone confirm you as town right off the bat, but as someone coming in late to the party I think your behavior is very scummy and I don't think someone who knew how this game worked would suggest your plan. We should be minimizing town stock loss. As I said earlier: from a pure math point of view, it makes no difference. Whether town outnumbers scum 18:6 in total stock or 15:5 is irrelevant, it's both a 3:1 advantage for us.
What do you mean "if the scum don't follow us it's clear who they are". Yeah no shit, this plan works out perfect for them why wouldn't "they" follow it. The more I think about it the more I KNOW you wouldn't post some stupid idea like this as town. Add to this your removal of two people from the item position list? What the heck man. All you've done by removing two people from the item list is make it so mafia has a better chance of getting an item. Want to minimize mafia chance of item while maximizing town chance so we're not double stacking? Then have us go down the list in numerical order and say that's left, bottom left, center, etc. Same for left, center, right on the position discussion.
I'm going to be voting iGrok for lynch at this point.
That was also proposed. I'm not sold on the item idea, but in the end why do you think randomizing it is better than iGrok deciding? I have no read on iGrok yet, but this gives us some information. Hell, it has given us information already, like that you are vehemently opposed to being benched. It also allows us to ask questions like
iGrok: why are you benching Risen? iGrok: why is Risen getting benched for an item?
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Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town.
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On July 03 2012 06:51 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 06:44 kingdedede wrote: Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town. What's better, (potentially) all of town and mafia losing .5kp or only some of town and some of mafia (potentially for mafia, guaranteed for town) losing .5kp. I think option 2 is better for town. That's what it comes down to. Statistically there is no difference, therefore I'm indifferent to the choice of either of these. The only thing you're doing is instead of having 100% hit 1 out of 3 times, you're having 33% hit 3 out of 3 times, with no knowledge gained over who scum is and who isn't. Therefore I consider the entire thing pretty pointless. /Art
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iGrok, why are you ignoring me?
On July 03 2012 04:54 kingdedede wrote: iGrok: why is Risen getting benched for an item?
Sure, I can make up my own explanation. I want to hear your reasoning for this when you made the decision. Answer it about Tali as well while you're at it.
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This makes no sense at all. How did iGrok lose stock, but Risen didn't if they were on a square together.
Also, what is there that causes 1 stock loss in item/stage events?
I don't understand shit. Unless Hiro is not lined up with the rest and got hit by a tornado AND ignored iGrok's plan and stacked on iGrok (and Risen didn't).
/confused Acro
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I think Risen already figured it out.
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Fuck it, iGrok has effectively made himself unlynchable: I don't think iGrok and mister saturn can be scum together based on what just happened, so unless we're okay with mister saturn losing another 1.5 stock in the lynch, it's not even worth discussing at this point :S
iGrok: I don't know what to think of this. Artanis and I will talk it over more, but I can't believe you just screwed up your own plan.
/Acro
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Catching up now. Artanis isn't online, so no vote from us yet, but after having had some time to think about the whole iGrok derp thing, I cannot come up with a scum reason to do that. Doesn't mean he's town, just that the derp is a completely null derp.
On July 03 2012 09:03 HomerunBat wrote: iGrok- Shiao thought he had some weird ideas, but didn't think scum. This was from earlier, and I don't think it had changed. I don't think he is scum. Regarding his derp: it was either intentional or unintentional. Intentionally going against his own plan when it would be so bloody obvious that he did so is plain stupid from both a town or scum perspective. It must have been unintentional. I don't think he would make such an egregious mistake as scum. Think about it, he has since day 1 grabbed town by the balls and said 'this is what we should do, and here's how you know you can trust me.' It would be extremely bold, and require a LOT of work and attention to detail to keep up the facade. If he was actually going for that play style, you can bet your ass he'd have gotten his location PM right, because he'd be hyper aware of any miss-steps.
<snip>
-s0L
I'm not sure I agree with this. I think mistakes can be made by either team. Would scum doublecheck their PM? I for one would. However, in this game I'm town and also doublechecked that my PM was correct. Making a mistake makes iGrok human, not scum or town 
I do have a bit of a townread on him from his subsequent behaviour. I think scum screwing up would be more panicky about it, whereas iGrok is really lacadaisical in his response to the derp. I don't see a scum being so incredibly cocky that he would be posting like this after such a monumental screwup in his plan:
On July 03 2012 07:44 iGrok wrote: I can't tell my reasoning on saturn until tomorrow.
Top picks for lynch are ##Vote: Talisman
On July 03 2012 08:01 iGrok wrote: The same reasoning the I do everything for.
2nd choice is grush, but we'll see what happens there.
So yeah, I get a whiff of town out of iGrok here and think he's a bad lynch. I think his advice, however, is terrible:
On July 03 2012 07:34 iGrok wrote: Even if you think I'm scum, you shouldn't be lynching me tonight. You already know my role. Lynch me tomorrow when Saturn's going to shoot me, and find out someone's role today
This makes no sense: I will lynch scum over "lynching for information" every single time. There are reasons not to lynch you at the moment, but the information one is a load of crap.
I can't make sense of this lynching for rolenames. Why not just ask? A mass claim D1 is bad:
On July 02 2012 22:31 iGrok wrote: Don't mass claim day 1 please....
But we should lynch people to find out their role? Maybe I'm missing a vital part of SSB-mafia that makes this all make sense, but can we just find scum, lynch them and win the game, rather than wasting lynches on uncovering people's roles?
Will be looking at Tali, HRB and Saturn next. Grush is playing into his usual meta: lurk until he gets lynched or shot. He's doing it in the other game too (and I blew him up in SSM for doing the same there as well). I like lynching Grush just so he is forced to post at least something if I don't have a decent scumread on somoene else.
Risen: other than iGrok who do you think is scum? Unlike other people here I think a giant filter discussing statistics is a null read, not a town read, so I want your scumhunting opinions. Do you think HRB is scum? You currently have your vote on him based mainly on him defending iGrok. That only works if iGrok is scum. Why not try to flip iGrok then?
/Acro
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EBWOP: why not try to flip iGrok then? I also need convincing that iGrok is scum. Tell me why he's scum and not town from that ordeal.
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On July 03 2012 15:46 Mister Saturn wrote: If there's a Link, you really should drop the bomb by now.
- Hiro Who do you want to throw it to?
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Hmmm, I am getting a bad feeling about Tali. I have played in two games with him and got an instant town vibe from him in both of them (Bastard 2 and SSM). The mechanics discussion seems to be completely normal from him, so reading into that is not a good idea, but I'm wary that I'm missing the townie vibe from him.
In both games he sounded super excited in his first post in the game. Like in... bubbling over with excitement. Look at this: + Show Spoiler [Bubblymania] +On June 17 2012 03:35 talismania wrote:Fuck yes I'm town for once. Ok everyone listen up. Here's what's happening: Mass Encrypted Roleclaim(1) Go to http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/javascrypt.html(2) Type in your role and win condition (I recommend doing this separately) (3) Post the encrypted message here, and store the key somewhere you won't lose it. (4) Play the game out normally (5) In the event that you are going to claim your role and win condition, do so by posting the key to your encrypted message __________________________ What this accomplishes: This forces scum to fake claim NOW. They cannot wait to see what kinds of roles are in the game. They cannot wait to see what kind of win conditions are in the game. They must come up with whatever lie they want to make on Night 0. This is way harder than coming up with a good situational lie later in the game. It doesn't hurt town at all. Scum gets no information from it, because everyone participates. Important points: EVERYONE PARTICIPATES. No exceptions. It doesn't hurt you if you're town, it only makes scum squirm a little. Even if you are vanilla townie, write "I am vanilla tonwie blahblahblah" EVERYONE DOES THIS NIGHT 0. No exceptions. The longer you wait the more information scum gets to figure out how best to fake their role. NO ONE POSTS THEIR KEY UNLESS IT IS NECESSARY. This should be obvious. But unless you're on the chopping block to be lynched, don't post your key. ______________________ I'll start: My role: + Show Spoiler +##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/ZZZZZ UNUAF LVWWX VTNWQ RSJRQ UFHSW SECDA VUMEN VLUEB OSEUB USPRE FBTBC NSPMB JOQFQ FWCIP DKMNV VUTQO GNBTP COMCC ATUGP RFRRK HQPAH WWXJL OSDUD ETCWT GLNBA OMRJM UHDKR DVTPV SJSJU XOHVN IRJRW HIFMR EFXKG GDNQP QRFML MJSAC EJASQ SKGWF BKAOU JHHGH DVDCP FGLMW EMSUS PGWVP FPQHP TJSME EDFHA BQWEX LXQKC SEQFL XPGNN PKWFE NMKAN DCSBL LPAET WTGAW PIMHS LDATX XXTDE WABHD QKTFL QAICQ MWNFE LOWUD XOBKQ SXXEU CUTLQ LTKTC QMOEN UOHRV XWGJG WCSNT XBTGC MWGVN DAKLI ASWIS SURSG MBAIW MLAFC HOXEH IEVNU MDIKP MWUHX QLDAT PWALQ VTMXL PPDKE NGTXG JMHCA BDUAT SUKXQ OHTRU PASDO VJSDX GLADE UTSTS GKFQE LWGUM XCPNO MIMGK OJTGR IASQP OXMDT ODOWN JQXMQ IKSMC FVNBV HLLVW NFNPW INDCM HRSMX AANDE SIKGO UQBRR URSIW WTBRJ GBGKB ABDFP UWKGE OHXKL RFSFD CWBMD PMOMC UWLUD WNRDJ FPLLM NQJBU JASEO UJWVB VQWWC TVXGS HGDJF NCMSA ILAPU WNZZZ YYYYY ##### End encrypted message My win condition: + Show Spoiler +##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/ZZZZZ WXIAB HUWXM RSKDQ RDONU VCNWX AWIQJ QLNUJ CLSUA EXJNS DBHGN ABXXC JRBIF PHFBC CBMCV GKTJU WVMAQ ONXAW GQDII GQJWB BJLSO WSBTB MRVHH UXJWH SLMWV CHWMH LNKHU MHVHJ JUFCS MHPHX BKINW TOOLR PTBSJ HEQNP BMLEQ CTTBG SJBEQ LWXLR ODXAN FMBRX IMQQD NUMQI FXKFB RHTTT RUQUW ISARE UDUIJ GHKHR DRLDC SIXOW RDEXQ HDIVW HPVHQ FHFIG CKWBK KEWDR VDUXL HFQIR MAWBC UBTFP URJFA RLFSN LFDOE WFMNG LOSSS UCGOQ UGUVU CODHO NQMHE PHLQQ ECGLV PSZZZ YYYYY ##### End encrypted message Note: I added some spam text in the middle of my mesage in order to get longer results. I suggest you all do the same. On April 14 2012 01:41 talismania wrote: Morning all!
First game playing in a long time :-)
My thoughts:
--Where I used to play (flashflashrevolution) PM and instant messaging was an integral part of the game. It quickly became policy there to have EVERYONE post ALL of their private conversations, with the exception of anything that would reveal town-damaging information. I propose we do the same here. If you talk to anyone, and nothing you talk about could endanger the town (ie, role claims, item claims, etc) then you should post every conversation you have. With high enough participation rate, this forces the scum to have to fake conversations with each other, which can lead to things sounding awkward and forced. Public sharing of these one-on-one conversations often becomes useful later in the game as well, as patterns emerge about who is talking to whom and who is NOT talking to whom.
--This probably goes without saying, but one of the most useful things to do is to ask people who they are talking to, and who they have talked to. Then ask for copies of those conversations, if they don't contain sensitive information. Every now and then you get a scumslip this way when one scum says they are chatting with the other but the other claims to have never spoken to the one. Not very often but sometimes useful.
--I have not been PMed yet by anyone. I don't know how sandroba is going around collecting info but I suppose it's not been player-wide. I suggest that he make it player-wide so that scum can't figure out who he's talked to, and therefore who he's gotten to claim already.
--Captain policy: I suggest that whoever gets captain be sure to give enough warning to whomever is going to be lynched. If the player is town (as Ace pointed out, town is often lynched day one) that player should be given the opportunity to offload any items he has and/or roleclaim via pm or something in order to save himself if he thinks that's wise/necessary.
--sandroba's actions are town to me. As acrofales (I think?) said, occam's razor would suggest that. He's sticking his neck out very far on day one, even going so far as to think up the anonymous roleclaim plan AND ask the host about it. I don't know his meta, but that kind of play seems unlikely to me to even occur to scum, plus it would be even dicier to try to pull it off (also have to consider how his scumteam would feel about him putting himself out there). If for some reason he's been doing this as scum, then I guess his plan is to play for a high-risk high-reward strat and have his scumteam bus him if it backfires. But again, less likely than town.
--my skype is jason.e.pipkin . Feel free to chat.
--question for the thread: how many scum do you think will end up running for captain? It depends of course on how many total people end up running, but I imagine any good scum team would only put out one, maybe two members, if any. How soon does everyone think a scum puts his hat in the running? Right off the bat? Do they wait awhile and see if the town is coalescing around someone first? I dunno what I would do as scum (would depend on meta I guess) but maybe the two strongest strategies are 1) putting up a scum candidate early or 2) not putting up a candidate at all (consider what GMarshal said - that if he had to pick a scum candidate day one he would probably pick one of the captain candidates). Thoughts?
Compare that to this game: + Show Spoiler [Subdued] +On July 02 2012 12:31 talismania wrote: hokay so mister saturn and cephiro are both samus then (or grush is lying).
hey toad was alignment generated randomly or not?
I got my first pick.
This feels more like Bang Bang 2 (which I didn't play in, but read) than the town Talismania I know and love. More tellingly than the first posts, the town Tali I know dives straight into scumhunting: pressuring people, giving reads, etc. I don't see that from Tali in this game either.
Yes, he talks about using the mechanics to find scum, and Tali does have a predisposition to loving clever mechanics (and breaking them). However, he doesn't actually do any scumhunting this game, except for one post.
I have to talk it over with Artanis, but I don't like Tali's play at all so far. Consider Acro's vote on Tali (so half of kingdedede's vote) for now.
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Read up on HRB. I like s0lstice's long post. I ike ShiaoPi's recent post. I don't see much reason to lynch him. Risen has explained his vote, but I am unclear what a team with the quality of HiroPro+SnB is doing sheeping Risen instead of scumhunting for themselves. It is making no sense to me. That brings me to Mr. Saturn. I am largely null on him. I am going to disregard the whole mechanics thing, because I am not going to try and wifom my way into Toad's head. His posts so far have been acceptable, but I don't much like his cases. At least he's active, so I think I'll have a better read soon.
I'll read Cephiro's filter later. I had a townish feel about him earlier, but want to recheck. For now I like my case on Tali.
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None of your behaviour is making much sense to me at the moment. You wanting to sheep me is setting off alarmbells for buddying and not wanting to think for yourself.
Grush is making perfect sense from a scum point of view if you and iGrok are both town. From a town point of view it ONLY makes sense if he thinks both of you are scum. Seeing as he says he thinks tali is scum, the move makes no sense. Lynch Tali.
I talked it over with Artanis and we agree on lynching Tali. Grush is basically a lurker lynch, while Tali's posts are not convincing me he's town, which, as I said, he has done instantly in the past. I don't think his case on you is particularly strong. I also have that meta read on him that I can't shake.
The rest of his posts are filler. He "translates" iGrok and continues on about Toad's minor mistake. I don't like it at all.
##vote Talismania
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Oh, and I REALLY hope Cephiro's thoughts are worth his absense. He was starting to ping after being so active in phase 1.
Also, where is Risen? Another one who was very outspoken and then disappears when we have to decide on a lynch.
Both of you were perfectly happy to talk and even argue about mechanics, but when it comes to finding scum and lynching them you go awol. I don't like Risen's vote on HRB based only on the defense of iGrok.
Wait what? It's majority lynch? I thought plurality lynch based on this. Please clarify?
Voting rules: 1. Voting is done here. Please keep votes there, and only vote there. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. In the event of a tie the person with the most votes first wins (or loses).6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
If it's majority we need to consolidate ASAP. Lets kill Tali.
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And I just realized I did all of that posting on Acro and not on dedede. + Show Spoiler [Acro's posts] +On July 04 2012 07:57 Acrofales wrote:Hmm, I thought I'd make it for the lynch, but needed time with the gf. Kinda glad Tali didn't get lynched in the end: This just doesn't read like scum responding to getting lynched. So while I'm happy with the overall outcome (Grush would've been my choice too if I had made sense of this post earlier and not been in a rush to get people on Tali and go afk), the way that lynch happened is not making sense to me. I'll try to make sense of what we learned there tomorrow. Just answering your questions and then going to bed. Show nested quote +MrDedede - his plan for how to use his bus driving power seems pretty antitown since there is so much more vigilante power in the game than there is scum KP power. IMO he should be taking people he thinks are townie and bussing them with people who are unobtrusive and unlikely to get targeted by scum or by town. IMO a town busdriver would be best used as a protective role rather than an offensive role. Actually wait I think that he should bus drive us with someone scummy and then we should have all our vigs target igrok since that way we don't die when he does. I don't think I understand what you want me to do. I don't prevent actions on the recipient, I only move any actions that were on my first target onto the second. So if I bus from player A to player B and player B is getting vigi'd and A is getting medic'd, then player B gets vigi'd and medic'd. If both are getting vigi'd then B gets double vigi'd. So back to your post: if I drive FROM someone unobtrusive to a town player, I might as well not drive at all. If I drive from someone townie to someone scummy, then any mafia KB will hit the scumster AND any vigi shots aimed at him hit him too! That is, unless I completely misunderstood Toad's explanation of the bus driver mechanics. Please tell me my explanation is right and the targets aren't just swapped?@Tali: I cannot edit the spreadsheet. In any case I'll give you a list of my reads after the night is over. Don't want to give too many reads tonight, so scum can't wifom around what I am doing too much. On July 04 2012 08:05 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 08:01 Mister Saturn wrote:On July 04 2012 07:57 Acrofales wrote:MrDedede - his plan for how to use his bus driving power seems pretty antitown since there is so much more vigilante power in the game than there is scum KP power. IMO he should be taking people he thinks are townie and bussing them with people who are unobtrusive and unlikely to get targeted by scum or by town. IMO a town busdriver would be best used as a protective role rather than an offensive role. Actually wait I think that he should bus drive us with someone scummy and then we should have all our vigs target igrok since that way we don't die when he does. I don't think I understand what you want me to do. I don't prevent actions on the recipient, I only move any actions that were on my first target onto the second. So if I bus from player A to player B and player B is getting vigi'd and A is getting medic'd, then player B gets vigi'd and medic'd. If both are getting vigi'd then B gets double vigi'd. So back to your post: if I drive FROM someone unobtrusive to a town player, I might as well not drive at all. If I drive from someone townie to someone scummy, then any mafia KB will hit the scumster AND any vigi shots aimed at him hit him too! That is, unless I completely misunderstood Toad's explanation of the bus driver mechanics. Please tell me my explanation is right and the targets aren't just swapped? Read what s&b said again. I'm pretty sure what he means is that you drive from townies to people you find suspicious. So any scum actions on those townies get done on possible scum instead. - Hiro No. S&B clearly thought the bus driver swaps people. I was planning on using it as a medic, driving hits away from townie people and onto scummy people. If targets are merely swapped then I really need to rethink my role, but I still don't think that's how it works.
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Oh, hrmmm, I might be wrong about how this role works.
SCENARIO: Player A is shot by Capt. Falcon Player B is copied by Kirby
I drive from A to B. What is the outcome of the night actions?
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No. Please answer the scenario I used. The problem for me is if there's actions on both sides of the bus route
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Okay, so it's a complete swap of targets. That changes how I need to use my role quite significantly. I need to think about it. Now I'm going to bed. G'night!
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