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On July 03 2012 06:23 Risen wrote:
How about you read my filter and find the answers since I've already posted them. You're incompetent and lazy, or scum. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say scum.
What is this, I don't even....
I've looked through your filter several times, and all your reasoning is this:
1) In your opinion, everyone losing stock (33% chance), is worse off for town than mafia.
You back this up because in your opinion when scum is found, the town can just blob everything at them and they die instantly.
What makes you think we are able to kill scum just like SNAP? They have picked a role just like everyone else, and will use it to their advantage. Sure, we have lynches but it still takes time to kill them, and every mislynch would hurt us even more. Not to mention that they could have doublevoters and we wouldn't. Or how are you going to convince the rest of the town that someone is scum, if all you do is point fingers saying "I think that plan sucks, let's kill him, he must be scum."
2) In your opinion iGrok is suggesting a pro-mafia plan.
On July 03 2012 04:26 Risen wrote:
Want to minimize mafia chance of item while maximizing town chance so we're not double stacking? Then have us go down the list in numerical order and say that's left, bottom left, center, etc. Same for left, center, right on the position discussion.
I'm going to be voting iGrok for lynch at this point.
You criticize him for leaving two people out. You say it will increase the mafia chance of gaining an item. That's true if the persons whom sit-out are town. However, if even one of his sit-out picks is mafia, it decreases the chance of them gaining an item. How is going down the list in numerical order any better? Now we can ask iGrok for his reasoning and hold him responsible, but if we do everything by the list, it gives us no information at all.
I'll end with this:
Your criticism against iGrok's plan:
On July 03 2012 05:59 Risen wrote:
Exactly WHAT does standing on the same platform tell us? It tells us NOTHING.
Your own plan:
On July 03 2012 05:40 Risen wrote:
I disagree. Scum gets no info from spreading ourselves out based on the list and leading town to do things doesn't seem pro-town to me at all.
Have a look in the mirror, Mr. NoInfo
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Hey look, you pegged my opinion on the matter in the first point of your post. Good job buddy, guess you didn't need to ask me at all.
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Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town.
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On July 03 2012 04:26 iGrok wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 04:25 talismania wrote:
bah I wanted to stand in the middle :-(
____________
random hypothesis:
toad picked alignments after character select so that he could guarantee a balanced game (aka he did not do it randomly). otherwise I don't see why we picked characters first and couldn't talk and all that which was half the fun (and half the information) in pick your power. Therefore I hypothesize that cephiro and mister saturn are not both mafia, because that sounds kind of broken. The other possible configurations sound reasonable though. I can confirm that your hypothesis is correct because thats how you run SSB64
So what would you do as host in this situation - give both samus to town or split them? I can't figure out if toad thought about the likelihood that grush would claim not getting his first pick and therefore outing both of them (which complicates the analysis).
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Also, in case you couldn't figure this out by yourself. We already have insight into iGrok's thoughts by him telling us what he wants to do. We don't all have to go along with his plan in order to find out his thoughts on the matter.
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Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town?
If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18%
Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19%
The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong.
Can you explain me why your plan is better?
Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio.
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On July 03 2012 06:44 kingdedede wrote:
Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town.
What's better, (potentially) all of town and mafia losing .5kp or only some of town and some of mafia (potentially for mafia, guaranteed for town) losing .5kp. I think option 2 is better for town. That's what it comes down to.
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On July 03 2012 06:51 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 06:44 kingdedede wrote:
Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town. What's better, (potentially) all of town and mafia losing .5kp or only some of town and some of mafia (potentially for mafia, guaranteed for town) losing .5kp. I think option 2 is better for town. That's what it comes down to.
You think that guaranteeing that town loses stock for the chance that not all townies will and a scum will is better than keeping everyone equal.
Are you fucking kidding me.
This is seriously the most pants-on-head-retarded argument I've ever seen you make.
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Vatican City State155 Posts
I sent in my stage: left, item: top left.
Also, iGrok, is there a reason you didn't give any instructions for Marios? Did you want them to only use one spot?
On July 03 2012 06:51 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 06:44 kingdedede wrote:
Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town. What's better, (potentially) all of town and mafia losing .5kp or only some of town and some of mafia (potentially for mafia, guaranteed for town) losing .5kp. I think option 2 is better for town. That's what it comes down to.
You'll have to explain this a little more to me. Because I don't see it.
- Hiro
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On July 03 2012 06:50 Cephiro wrote:
Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town?
If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18%
Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19%
The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong.
Can you explain me why your plan is better?
Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio.
End ratio isn't equal. Someone else posted on this. Stand where you want to stand people, don't be directed. No information comes from all of us standing on a single square. Damage outweighs benefits imo. Think that sums well.
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On July 03 2012 06:51 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 06:44 kingdedede wrote:
Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town. What's better, (potentially) all of town and mafia losing .5kp or only some of town and some of mafia (potentially for mafia, guaranteed for town) losing .5kp. I think option 2 is better for town. That's what it comes down to.
Statistically there is no difference, therefore I'm indifferent to the choice of either of these. The only thing you're doing is instead of having 100% hit 1 out of 3 times, you're having 33% hit 3 out of 3 times, with no knowledge gained over who scum is and who isn't. Therefore I consider the entire thing pretty pointless.
/Art
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On July 03 2012 06:54 kingdedede wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 06:51 Risen wrote:On July 03 2012 06:44 kingdedede wrote:
Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town. What's better, (potentially) all of town and mafia losing .5kp or only some of town and some of mafia (potentially for mafia, guaranteed for town) losing .5kp. I think option 2 is better for town. That's what it comes down to. Statistically there is no difference, therefore I'm indifferent to the choice of either of these. The only thing you're doing is instead of having 100% hit 1 out of 3 times, you're having 33% hit 3 out of 3 times, with no knowledge gained over who scum is and who isn't. Therefore I consider the entire thing pretty pointless. /Art
The risk taken by all of us standing on one square is higher than spreading ourselves out.
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On July 03 2012 06:54 Risen wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 03 2012 06:50 Cephiro wrote:
Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town?
If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18%
Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19%
The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong.
Can you explain me why your plan is better?
Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio.
End ratio isn't equal. Someone else posted on this. Stand where you want to stand people, don't be directed. No information comes from all of us standing on a single square. Damage outweighs benefits imo. Think that sums well.
Assuming everyone stands left and gets hit by tornado (33% chance)
Town stock before Tornado = 6 x 3 = 18
Mafia stock before Tornado = 2 x 3 = 6
Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 18 : 6 -> 3 : 1
Town stock after Tornado = 6 x 2.5 = 15
Mafia stock after Tornado = 2 x 2.5 = 5
Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 15 : 5 -> 3 : 1
.... I still don't get what you are going at. What information do we get from "everyone stands where they want" then?
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On July 03 2012 06:57 Risen wrote:
The risk taken by all of us standing on one square is higher than spreading ourselves out.
False. Expected damage average is 1.33 KP in every situation. And you have no way of controlling whom it goes to.
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iGrok, why are you ignoring me?
On July 03 2012 04:54 kingdedede wrote:
iGrok: why is Risen getting benched for an item?
Sure, I can make up my own explanation. I want to hear your reasoning for this when you made the decision. Answer it about Tali as well while you're at it.
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On July 03 2012 06:58 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 06:54 Risen wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 03 2012 06:50 Cephiro wrote:
Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town?
If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18%
Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19%
The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong.
Can you explain me why your plan is better?
Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio.
End ratio isn't equal. Someone else posted on this. Stand where you want to stand people, don't be directed. No information comes from all of us standing on a single square. Damage outweighs benefits imo. Think that sums well. Assuming everyone stands left and gets hit by tornado (33% chance) Town stock before Tornado = 6 x 3 = 18 Mafia stock before Tornado = 2 x 3 = 6 Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 18 : 6 -> 3 : 1 Town stock after Tornado = 6 x 2.5 = 15 Mafia stock after Tornado = 2 x 2.5 = 5 Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 15 : 5 -> 3 : 1 .... I still don't get what you are going at. What information do we get from "everyone stands where they want" then?
And then when we go into night what happens Cephiro? We have a smaller buffer against night actions if we all get hit.
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On July 03 2012 06:54 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 06:50 Cephiro wrote:
Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town?
If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18%
Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19%
The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong.
Can you explain me why your plan is better?
Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio.
End ratio isn't equal. Someone else posted on this. Stand where you want to stand people, don't be directed. No information comes from all of us standing on a single square. Damage outweighs benefits imo. Think that sums well.
NO, HE POSTED THAT THE END RATIOS ARE EQUAL. QUIT BEING OBTUSE.
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On July 03 2012 07:00 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 06:57 Risen wrote:
The risk taken by all of us standing on one square is higher than spreading ourselves out. False. Expected damage average is 1.33 KP in every situation. And you have no way of controlling whom it goes to.
RISK. I said RISK, not talking about the odds here. I'm hedging my bets, you are not in this situation.
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On July 03 2012 07:00 iGrok wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 06:54 Risen wrote:On July 03 2012 06:50 Cephiro wrote:
Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town?
If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18%
Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19%
The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong.
Can you explain me why your plan is better?
Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio.
End ratio isn't equal. Someone else posted on this. Stand where you want to stand people, don't be directed. No information comes from all of us standing on a single square. Damage outweighs benefits imo. Think that sums well. NO, HE POSTED THAT THE END RATIOS ARE EQUAL. QUIT BEING OBTUSE.
Don't post in big caps. I was wrong on that, cool. Fact remains we have a smaller buffer. No need to shout. I'm almost 100% iGrok is scum. He doesn't get heated like this usually.
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EPT
