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SSB-64 Mafia - Page 12

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 22:02 GMT
#221
Spreading out everyone isn't hedging your bets.... You're just increasing the chance of having either a best-case scenario (only mafia get hit) and the worst-case (only town gets hit).
mmaaawww
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
July 02 2012 22:03 GMT
#222
On July 03 2012 07:00 kingdedede wrote:
iGrok, why are you ignoring me?

Show nested quote +
On July 03 2012 04:54 kingdedede wrote:
iGrok: why is Risen getting benched for an item?


Sure, I can make up my own explanation. I want to hear your reasoning for this when you made the decision. Answer it about Tali as well while you're at it.

Not ignoring you sorry, attention is kind of split atm.

Risen was originally benched because he hadn't done anything and if he was going to lurk I didn't want him getting an item.
Tali wasn't benched for any particular reason.
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
July 02 2012 22:03 GMT
#223
Stage Event and Item update


A STAR WAND JUST DROPPED.
SADLY NOONE WAS ABLE TO PICK IT UP.

NOONE WAS HIT BY A TORNADO


Igrok IS REDUCED TO 2.5 STOCK
Mister Saturn IS REDUCED TO 2.0 STOCK
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
July 02 2012 22:04 GMT
#224
On July 03 2012 07:02 Risen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 03 2012 07:00 iGrok wrote:
On July 03 2012 06:54 Risen wrote:
On July 03 2012 06:50 Cephiro wrote:
Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town?

If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18%
Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19%

The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong.

Can you explain me why your plan is better?

Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio.



End ratio isn't equal. Someone else posted on this. Stand where you want to stand people, don't be directed. No information comes from all of us standing on a single square. Damage outweighs benefits imo. Think that sums well.

NO, HE POSTED THAT THE END RATIOS ARE EQUAL. QUIT BEING OBTUSE.


Don't post in big caps. I was wrong on that, cool. Fact remains we have a smaller buffer. No need to shout. I'm almost 100% iGrok is scum. He doesn't get heated like this usually.

I DO NEED TO POST IN CAPS BECAUSE APPARENTLY IF I DON'T IT FLIES RIGHT OVER YOUR HEAD. I'M HAVING TO SMACK YOU IN THE FACE WITH OBVIOUS LOGIC AND YOUR DERPING UP OF THE THREAD IS STARTING TO ANNOY ME.
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 22:04 GMT
#225
Could you answer this too, iGrok?

On July 03 2012 06:02 Mister Saturn wrote:
mm, I'm curious. What made you pick Risen over grush to sit out items, iGrok? And why have talismania sit out? He may have volunteered, but thinking about it, if you didn't have any leaning scum reads (which is what it looks like, since you picked a non-poster and a volunteer), wouldn't it have been better to simply put two people who weren't doing anything?

- Hiro


- Hiro
mmaaawww
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
July 02 2012 22:04 GMT
#226
On July 03 2012 07:02 Mister Saturn wrote:
Spreading out everyone isn't hedging your bets.... You're just increasing the chance of having either a best-case scenario (only mafia get hit) and the worst-case (only town gets hit).


That's how you feel? Ok, stand on the left. I'm not standing there, I'm standing on the right. I think it's best if we spread out, you don't. Clump, I don't care. There's no information received from all of us standing on one square as opposed to not. All this does is direct us and create useless conversation. iGrok knew this. iGrok isn't that bad. iGrok is scum.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
July 02 2012 22:05 GMT
#227
Well, this is interesting.
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 22:05 GMT
#228
wait, what. why do i have 2 stock.

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
July 02 2012 22:05 GMT
#229
On July 03 2012 07:03 Toadesstern wrote:
Stage Event and Item update


A STAR WAND JUST DROPPED.
SADLY NOONE WAS ABLE TO PICK IT UP.

NOONE WAS HIT BY A TORNADO


Igrok IS REDUCED TO 2.5 STOCK
Mister Saturn IS REDUCED TO 2.0 STOCK


Lol, wtf?
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
July 02 2012 22:06 GMT
#230
On July 03 2012 07:05 Mister Saturn wrote:
wait, what. why do i have 2 stock.

- Hiro


Did you send your standing place to all three mods? Perhaps someone did something to you.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 02 2012 22:06 GMT
#231
On July 03 2012 07:00 Risen wrote:
And then when we go into night what happens Cephiro? We have a smaller buffer against night actions if we all get hit.


The mafia has a smaller buffer against night actions also. Scum has 1 KP + Possible Role KP. Town has 0 KP + Possible Role KP. Given that town has 6 persons and mafia assumingly has 2, I think it evens out quite well.

On top of that, remember there are roles that can mitigate / reflect damage, such as Donkey Kong, Fox, Ness, Jigglypuff, Yoshi + (Kirby).

I just can't see why you think a smaller buffer is absolutely worse for town than scum. Scum has +1 KP during night, whereas Town has a triple amount of roles, + if Town manages to co-operate properly, the lynch KP during day which is 1.5 KP.
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
July 02 2012 22:06 GMT
#232
You got my item/stage pm, right?
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
July 02 2012 22:06 GMT
#233
I sent it to all 3 mods.
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
July 02 2012 22:07 GMT
#234
LOL, iGrok is donkey kong and he was carrying Mister Saturn.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
kingdedede
Profile Joined June 2012
Kazakhstan80 Posts
July 02 2012 22:07 GMT
#235
This makes no sense at all. How did iGrok lose stock, but Risen didn't if they were on a square together.

Also, what is there that causes 1 stock loss in item/stage events?

I don't understand shit. Unless Hiro is not lined up with the rest and got hit by a tornado AND ignored iGrok's plan and stacked on iGrok (and Risen didn't).

/confused Acro
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
July 02 2012 22:08 GMT
#236
On July 03 2012 07:07 kingdedede wrote:
This makes no sense at all. How did iGrok lose stock, but Risen didn't if they were on a square together.

Also, what is there that causes 1 stock loss in item/stage events?

I don't understand shit. Unless Hiro is not lined up with the rest and got hit by a tornado AND ignored iGrok's plan and stacked on iGrok (and Risen didn't).

/confused Acro


I stood on the right.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
July 02 2012 22:08 GMT
#237
On July 03 2012 07:06 HiroPro wrote:
You got my item/stage pm, right?

YES I GOT THOSE. AS MENTIONED: NOONE WAS HIT BY A TORNADO.
SOMEONE BEING HIT BY A TORNADO DUE TO NOT SENDING SOMETHING IN WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN THAT SOMEONE BEING HIT BY A TORNADO AND THEREFORE LISTED UNDER "DUDE GOT HIT BY A TORNADO"
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 02 2012 22:09 GMT
#238
I am fairly sure I know what happened. iGrok, do you mind if I explain it to others? (Asking you because if I'm right you know what I will reveal.)
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
July 02 2012 22:09 GMT
#239
Um.

There a literally 0 things in the game that would result in me losing .5 stock other than a tornado. (No bombs have been dropped).
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
July 02 2012 22:11 GMT
#240
Ceph go ahead and try to piece it together for me?

List of .5 kp:
Tornado
Link Bomb
Motion Sensor Bomb

I didn't get hit by a tornado
There are no Link Bombs
MSBs act at night (and havent appeared yet anyways)
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
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