Newbie Mini Mafia XIX

On June 29 2012 07:38 NrGmonk wrote:
Good thing monk isn't a role.

On June 29 2012 08:16 Myles wrote:

I guess you can call trying to be a little more selective than randomly picking people to start accusing is promoting inactivity, but I was trying to be a little more prudent. The game started 2 hours ago so it seems a bit early to start accusing people.

On June 29 2012 08:38 Anacletus wrote:


I have 3 pages of notes already. And I wrote all of those notes in red ink. Only people who are guilty have note pages written about them in red ink. He must be scum!

On June 29 2012 10:06 JingleHell wrote:


Which is exactly what a scum would be hoping for. A visible post that doesn't progress things.

That originally joking FoS Anacletus is starting to look serious, rather than just a vital conversation starter.

On June 29 2012 12:17 Anacletus wrote:


From what I generally see in mafia, the town is the most active in posting when the game starts, while the mafia generally don't post and lurk a while. I've been posting a lot and I really think it's too early to start calling out scum.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 29 2012 12:36 Anacletus wrote:


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856&currentpage=8#155

If you actually thought that this was true...

I think JingleHell is playing aggressively which leads me to believe that he is a townie.

I only made the one about any supposed notes, the thread has 10 pages. So no, I am not filling the thread with trash about notes.

On June 29 2012 13:01 Anacletus wrote:


I already said that from what I've seen the mafia is generally extremely passive the first day, so my general thoughts on Jingle is that he is a townie.

On June 29 2012 13:05 Anacletus wrote:


Do you have any reads on them >_> ?

On June 29 2012 13:13 iamperfection wrote:

So by that logic filter AmericanUmlaut and Fencer710 are definatly mafia. I dont buy the passive argument its only been a few hours they could just be busy hell they might not have even opened their pms with their role yet.

since the only information we have is the ramblings my top 2 right now are ancaletus and promethelax but i wouldnt put much stock in either right now.

On June 29 2012 21:48 BLinD-RawR wrote:
we still have 2 lurkers/inactive players, until we can get them to talk and really get some info from them I'd lay off of voting.

On June 29 2012 18:47 Fencer710 wrote:

shit I'm an idiot. I'm acting like scum. I also forgot to mention this is my first game.

I guess it's my fault for having the same views as you. Do you want me to word it differently as well? I'll do so:

- Anacletus is very suspicious, not really doing anything but posting a lot.

-Jinglehell is similar, but doesn't feel as suspicious since he actually has some direction although he is a bit all over the place as well.

I'll talk more later, I have to reread everything a few more times :\

On June 29 2012 21:15 Fencer710 wrote:
Wow, I didn't realize that the only thing JH was talking about was lynching players.

On June 30 2012 10:48 Intact wrote:
In addition, should we lynch analectus and he turns put to be mafia, it would make it fairly easy to point out the other mafia. And if he turns out to be townie it would be very easy to confirm some townies.

On June 30 2012 12:45 Hopeless1der wrote:


I'll take you over Anacletus today. You're posting is extremely unproductive to me. It doesnt seem all that scummy, but its a massive hindrance when you don't provide anything for discussion, just constantly droning about how your new and guides are super cool.

##Vote: Fencer710

On June 30 2012 11:26 JingleHell wrote:
If you're really having trouble, and not just trying to be consistent to cover up the slips from earlier, I suggest you go read all of the linked guides, (no really, all of them). Then, forget all the advice you just read, because everyone has read it, and you'll just metagame yourself into a tizzy for no reason. Instead, focus on the generalizations, the state of mind, and the thought processes that were discussed.

However, I can easily see this, like I said, as you just trying to be consistent with your earlier behavior to try and get BotD.

On June 30 2012 12:20 Fencer710 wrote:
OK, guys. I have to go to bed. My closing thoughts in case I don't make the deadline tomorrow:

Remember, 7 people have to decide to lynch the same guy in order for there to be a lynch. It's me, Anacletus, or nothing.
You can be meta all you want in your head, but it doesn't change what actually goes on in the thread.
Remember to read and reread all the posts!

On June 30 2012 13:47 BLinD-RawR wrote:
Fencer has been quite unproductive, making excuses about being a newbie when he knows this is a newbie game, posting a lot to compensate for that, but I'm not ready to unvote for anacletus just yet.

Is there anyway to know what roles have been filled by players?(I'm not asking who is what, I'm asking only the roles that has been filled since this has so few players therefore not all roles are filled on both sides)

On June 29 2012 07:12 Anacletus wrote:


JingleHell makes some extremely valid points.

Myles, why are you suddenly trying to defend me? Are you trying to set up and alibi for yourself for if I get killed and turn town?

On June 29 2012 12:36 Anacletus wrote:


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856&currentpage=8#155

If you actually thought that this was true...

I think JingleHell is playing aggressively which leads me to believe that he is a townie.

I only made the one about any supposed notes, the thread has 10 pages. So no, I am not filling the thread with trash about notes.

On June 30 2012 05:23 Anacletus wrote:
Yeah, I'm not mafia. You guys are mainly voting for me because I said I had reads that I wasn't sharing. I did share what I thought later, I think that the people who talk a lot early are mainly townies, however those that come in to bandwagon voting seem very suspicious to me.






Both of them really haven't supplied much information at all and just voted for me after several others did.

On July 01 2012 07:59 JingleHell wrote:
Promethelax, go back to the case you and I made against Hopeless.

He placed his vote on Fencer (who has been under vague suspicion quite a bit, including by the dearly departed), but only after the vote on Anacletus was nearly secured, and ended the day as the ONLY vote on Fencer.

That ties in to the case we were already making about his scummy play. What do you think?

On July 01 2012 08:04 Myles wrote:
So I guess we're not going to wait until day to discuss stuff?

On July 01 2012 08:07 Myles wrote:
^

Because of what this guy wrote.

On July 01 2012 08:09 JingleHell wrote:


I still think Fencer is scummy, too, which is why I mentioned the Hopeless vote on him, as it makes one of them look less scummy if the other flips, but was done in a way that it didn't overcommit the vote, either.

However, if I have to take two people who are similarly scummy, I'm going to end up dropping a vote on the one who seems more dangerous, which currently feels like Hopeless.

On July 01 2012 08:44 Myles wrote:
Well, you're reasoning of hopeless being suspicious because his voting someone else after Anacletus was all but secured is something I don't agree with. I don't think that's much to go one because Fencer revealed himself to be pretty scummy with his spammy offtopic posts and haphazard voting. I mean, you basically did the same thing by putting an early FoS on Anacletus then changing to focus once other people jumped in. I don't think something like that is very damning.

On June 29 2012 07:17 Hopeless1der wrote:
Let's suppose many people neglect to post...if we can't get a decent case going, are we cool to lynch lurkers?
Everyone on board?

On June 29 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote:


Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on.

On June 30 2012 06:39 Hopeless1der wrote:


Argh...Thanks for derailing us hard ghost. It's time to get back to scumhunting now? and for future reference, the quoted post is usually seen as a complete waste of time and reason for suspicion.

On June 30 2012 12:45 Hopeless1der wrote:


I'll take you over Anacletus today. You're posting is extremely unproductive to me. It doesnt seem all that scummy, but its a massive hindrance when you don't provide anything for discussion, just constantly droning about how your new and guides are super cool.

##Vote: Fencer710

On July 01 2012 02:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
The biggest scumtell I've had so far is the whole mislynch vs no lynch. To that I submit the following:

WORST CASE SCENARIO
No Lynch Day1
+ Show Spoiler +

(Mis)Lynch Day1
+ Show Spoiler +

Conclusion: Mislynch Bad. No Lynch Worse.




WTF YOU ALREADY KNOW THIS WHY AM I DEFENDING MYSELF TO YOU??

On July 01 2012 09:03 BobTheLob wrote:
Okay, I've lurked this entire game and I'm starting to realize that that is a bad idea, now on the topic of reads: iamperfection and I am very fucking suspicious We're screwed by nature of our habits. See lurking

People are bandwagoning onto fencer now I agree he was acting odd but it's not conclusive

Jingle and Promethelax are working together quite well and the rest of us are just following them. They seem to have alot of the same ideas... paying attention to them

Myles hasn't posted to little or to much, he's playing it super safe. Not a clue

Blind is, more or less in the same boat as me albeit a bit less so. See above

AmericanUmlaut is doing quite well all his moves are well thought out but we still have no idea what side he's on could be one could be the other. No idea for him either

Hopeless1der also seems to be the victim of a bit of bandwagoning but he seems pretty cool I'm thinking he's a town but hey I could be wrong

Lastly Intact has been promoting conversation since the game began but seems to be in the same boat as me and perfection in that he hasn't posted enough. also not posting enough but I don't know

That's all I got, keeping in mind that we have only one death so far and the night is going to be the most important bit so far because as Jingle said, the scum will try to set someone up

Do games normally move this pace or faster/slower?

On July 01 2012 09:45 JingleHell wrote:


Actually, we've sparred back and forth a bit, too, we voted different directions on D1. We see similar things and build off of eachother's cases because out of everyone here, we're the only ones that aren't taking individual posts and comparing them to a newbie guide.

On July 01 2012 10:15 JingleHell wrote:

I was saying that if we were scum, tying ourselves together for no reason would be suicidal.

I read the guides, and then threw out everything I read except for the mentality type stuff, because frankly, it's all opinions on the best way to metagame other than that, which is just a headache waiting to happen.

I know I'm town, and I'm reasonably confident you are. What do you think of Myles in light of his jumping to defend Hopeless after we started looking at a case against him?

On June 29 2012 07:08 Myles wrote:
JingleHell, you sure are yippity. And creating quite the distraction...

On June 29 2012 21:07 Myles wrote:
Considering this is my first game, I hadn't put any thought into the idea that JH and Anacletus working together to create misinformation. Though, one of my first instincts when JH took the lead, but didn't really send us in any particular direction other than witch hunts and suggested we not take a very defined course of action, was that it seemed like he was trying to look like he was contributing without really doing so.

I see Anacletus in a similar vein. That 6 out of his first 7 posts were jokes threw up red flags for me, and though his latest posts have been relevant and worthwhile for the most part, I'm still a bit leery.

As for lurkers, Monk has posted twice, once to defend himself from JH random accusations. BobTheLob has posted twice, neither time saying too much. Blind-Rawr hasn't posted much either, but his posts have been pretty good. Besides that, everyone else has been pretty active.

Now back to work.

On July 01 2012 02:29 Myles wrote:

Nearly all of my posts have been about policy or reads, or a question about policy. I still don't see how the are non-contributing. I still wonder why Bob is flying so low below the radar when he's posted nothing expect to bandwagon on Anacletusm, which everyone seemed to ignore.

On July 01 2012 04:42 Myles wrote:

It's also irrelevant.

And I realize there's little someone can say to defend themselves in situations like these, but disappearing for nearly a full day when the FoS is on you doesn't seem to add up. You've given one read on JH, everything else you said was general observations on early mafia games. And your post about people not voting thinking your town doesn't make sense either. If the non-voters were mafia(thus knowing you're town) they would hop on the bandwagon since it was already going strong, and thus not be more suspicious then anyone else.

On July 01 2012 06:14 Myles wrote:
It's only 17:00 EDT...

On July 01 2012 08:16 Myles wrote:
Well then I guess I'll post my thoughts.

First I think we should look at bandwagoners. I’m sure I’m under suspicion, or more so than before since I got the eye from some posters, for being part of the lynching, but I hope I explained my position enough that I get some BotD. A number of other people barely explained themselves at all before voting.

Blind-rawr hopped on the bandwagon without much discussion and voted pretty early, but his subsequent posts explained his position.
Intact did pretty much the same, just with a fewer number of posts.
Fencer is tied at the top for most suspicions now imo. His overall behavior, combined with his hopping on the bandwagon really early, hopping off when he got some attention, then hopping back on seems really scummy.
BobTheLob is right there with him. Lurker who used the same arguments as Fencer, hopped on the bandwagon with no reasoning, and the few posts he has made contributed nothing.

The others who voted for Anacletus seem like they had a reasonable position. And while I can’t say we know for sure that those who didn’t vote for him are town, I think it’s really likely because the FoS went so quickly on Anacletus . He didn’t do much to convince us of his innocence, so if they were PBUs it’d be some serious metagaming to start backing off and potentially drawing attention when there was so much support.

On July 01 2012 08:48 Myles wrote:

I know, and I agreed with that before. It was a valid reason to change focus and I think hopeless read on Fencer was as well.

On July 01 2012 22:10 JingleHell wrote:


If you start basing your defense off an attack, it looks like an OMGUS. You should start by defending points against yourself first, then, if you feel there's a case, turn it around second.

On July 01 2012 13:46 Hopeless1der wrote:


You've lost me Promethelax. My statement pertained to No Lynch and Mislynch (intentional or otherwise). Are you saying No Lynch is preferable? Because I'm saying Mislynch is preferable. Oh wait, when you cast your vote:

+ Show Spoiler +

Your actions agree with my conclusion, whether you agree with the deduction itself or not.

My 'non-committal' posts (at least towards Anacletus) were in fact a good read by me to identify someone being bandwagoned for a weak case. I can't decide if you and JH tunneling me so far is actually scummy or not, but don't for one goddamn second think I don't know what I'm doing.

On July 02 2012 07:24 BobTheLob wrote:
Lets overthink this a bit. JH could have been killed so that he would shut up OR he so that we would be thrown off the trail of the real Scum. So it could be someone he said it was OR the opposite.

(In the same boat with promethelax but with Rum+coke>beer)

On July 02 2012 21:43 Fencer710 wrote:

I personally can't find much, so I was drawing attention to things I thought were very interesting.

Promethelaxes' post is very convincing. He brought up a lot of good points, and you were already very suspicious.

That said, I will make a note of who has contributed with analysis so far:

1) Anacletus: No, Dead.
2) Myles: Yes. + Show Spoiler +
3) NrGmonk: Yes.(Being Replaced) + Show Spoiler +
4) JingleHell: Yes, Dead. (Too many analysis' to spoiler.)
5) American Umlaut: Yes. (Same as above)
6) Intact: No.
7) BobTheLob: Yes, poor. + Show Spoiler +
8) BLinD-RawR: No.
9) iamperfection: No.
10)Promethelax: Yes. (same as Jinglehell)
11)Fencer710/Fencar: Yes. + Show Spoiler +
12) Hopeless1der: Yes. (same as JingleHell) (second day only)

'Yes' means that they gave an analysis of a specific person. 'No' is the opposite.

On July 03 2012 00:04 Fencar wrote:
You know what, I give up. I'm done.

After my initial mistakes, everything I try to do is now banging my head against the wall.

On July 03 2012 00:13 AmericanUmlaut wrote:

I've been going through Myles's filter and JH's posts regarding him, and I'm not convinced by JH's read on him. I think he got an early whiff of something scummy when Myles me-tooed a bit too hard early on and then read the rest of Myles's play with a hefty dose of confirmation bias. When I try to read through Myles's filter with my BotD glasses on, though, he comes across as just someone who's getting used to the game and didn't play day 1 great. Nothing about his play really smells of PBU to me.

Does anyone else have thoughts on this? I'm not saying Myles is 100% town, but I don't think that we should give JH's reads too much weight just because he's been martyred.

On July 03 2012 00:24 Myles wrote:
Snippy snippy-

So for now, this is my list of most suspicious from highest to lowest:
Intact
Fencer
Bob

Could be town or not:
Hopeless
iamperfection
blind-rawr

Looks like town:
Promethelax
AmericanUmlaut

And was no one really watching JH despite being a pretty obvious target? Are we going to get anything at all to go off of? And where's our damn replacement?

On July 03 2012 00:30 AmericanUmlaut wrote:

EBWOP: I ask because my read is exactly the other way around. I feel like a scummy read on Bob is largely based on his lack of contributions, whereas Hopeless's actual posts have seemed scummy. In my mind being actively scummy is a louder ping than being passively scummy, and I'm curious about your thought process.

On July 03 2012 00:36 Myles wrote:

Bob is flying too low below the radar. Hopeless is iffy due to some of his early reasoning and the quick flip flop on the policy lynch of lurkers, but he's been providing a lot of info and taken a lot of heat while still keeping it up. It makes me a lot more hesitant than bob who has lived off the dumb scared newb label.

On July 03 2012 01:41 Myles wrote:
@Prom
If I was DT I would have check Hopeless or myself. We were taking the most heat from people last night and I think it makes sense to be able to confirm/deny the accusations as early as possible. There's too many lurkers to try and take a chance on them, and I'm not sure the heat on Intact started early enough to make a difference. Fencar would be another good choice, but over the night he had also kind of fallen below the radar like Bob due to all the FoS JH was doing, and his scummyness comes more from his posting style than actual scummy stuff he's said(until now at least).

And I know it's possible we don't have a watcher, but given that this is a newb game I would hope the deck didn't get completely stacked against us - that seems like a pretty critical role right under DT and medic. And as much as you and JH were working well together, he was definitely the lead and seemed would be the #1 target for the medic, watcher, and pbu's - assuming we have the first 2. You would have been second, imo, but a pretty clear 2nd.

Fencar dropping out doesn't remove any of my suspicion, either. He did a poor job defending himself, has bandwagoned both votes, then when questions keep coming(as I would think anyone who isn't Prom, and maybe Umlaut, should expect) decides that's he done enough to make up for his initial mistake(which I would argue put him under less suspicion than me or Hopeless, he just kept a lot of the same activities that had people eyeing him before) and is over it. It's not conclusive, but nothing there tells me he is a fed up townsperson who did everything they could to help out.

On July 03 2012 02:00 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
Okay...

I've got to give the Fencar situation some thought, but regardless of how we decide to read his resignation, I think the most reasonable course to take for now is to consider other possibilities. If there's a chance that he'll be modkilled, then we should be considering other candidates with the intention of returning to his case on day 3 if he is still alive then.

My leaning for tonight's lynch would be Intact, then, based on my current reads. Playing inactive is a less risky role than joining more actively in discussion, which leads me to believe that Intact is the most likely of the three to have an ability. Could some of the rest of you take a look at my case on him?

On July 03 2012 02:01 sciberbia wrote:
Hi guys - just got my role PM. I've barely been following the game and I'm at work atm, but I'll try to read the whole thread tonight. Gonna try to start contributing as soon as possible.

On July 03 2012 02:02 Hopeless1der wrote:
@Prom - If I was DT, I would not have investigated bob due to lurkyness. I would not have investigated fencar and intact due to scummyness/bandwagon suspicions. I would not have investigated you or JH for the strong town vibe you gave off.
Since Anacletus was the mislynched, I'd have gone after someone who voted for him hoping to find scum. That leaves Blind, iamperfection and Myles. I would probably have gone after Myles for pretty much the same reasons he noted in his post above.
iamperfection is still a null read for me, which effectively makes him town since I now have scum reads. BLiND-RawR would have been a close second, and I may well have pmed him as my choice before I developed a scum read on him.


Now that we know Fencar's expiration date, do we try to lynch him today or hope he gets modkilled and if not, lynch tomorrow (This of course assumes we consider him the scummiest person). It seems that if we can pick up a free kill and have the chance to hit other scum, we should do that instead of getting hung up on the Fencar case.

To that end, I'd like to push the Intact case, as he's my strongest red read so far, besides Fencar.
Promethelax, who is your strongest read? I assume I'm up there, but a good townie like you wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, now would he?



Hi sciberbia! Not to put you on the spot, but monk didn't give us all the much info. I don't care if you essentially copy our arguments, but I'd like to get your input specifically on myself, Intact and Fencar as we're the scummiest looking players so far. Any further reads you have would be awesome too.

On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
The lurking PBU

There are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting.

There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play.

I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available:

iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going.

BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk.

Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town.

Which leaves us with:

Intact:

This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch.


I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it.

And then comes this brilliant observation:

Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie.

Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them.

The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help.

On June 29 2012 08:44 Intact wrote:


Im not claiming he is scum, I'm simply pointing out the observations I've made- And I felt like the ball had to get rolling.

On June 29 2012 21:37 Intact wrote:



My first guess was Myles, however he is no longer on top of the list(although I will keep an eye on him). I'm leaning mostly towards Analectus, his posts contain very little of value and seems more like a way to avoid being branded a lurker. And like I said before I have seen scum play that is similar to what JH and Analectus is doing.

On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote:
I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus.

On July 01 2012 10:23 Intact wrote:
So I see that there is some doubt about me and my posting. I'll try adress that in a couple of hours when I wake up. Just got home from a nightclub so trying to make sense seems like a bad idea right now.

On July 02 2012 09:11 Intact wrote:
Sorry for my inactivity, internet died and It's quite annoying trying to write long texts from my phone. ISP says it will be fixed by tomorrow.

On July 03 2012 10:16 Intact wrote:
I've been on the phone with my isp all day, if stuff isnt working soon I will have to ask for replacement. Cant make any serious posts from my cellphone.

On July 04 2012 06:56 Keirathi wrote:
@Promethelax @sciberbia:

I will do my best to alleviate suspicions on myself. I just ask that people look for the merit in my posts, rather than being biased because you already have a read on something I had zero control over. I know that's hard to do, but I'll try to be as open as possible.

Also:


teehee :D

On June 30 2012 22:19 Promethelax wrote:
Well this is obnoxious, I think Anaacletus is scummy but I think Fencer is more scummy, however I will be at work when the voting ends and this is my last minute in this thread for this day cycle, since I think a no lynch is really bad for us I am going to switch my vote to Anacletus, I hope that if he flips town you all will look at my Fencer case, he really does look more scummy to me.

I'm putting the hammer on Anacletus because we need a lynch and I won't be here to convince people that we should get Fencer, I would leave my vote on Fencer if I thought I could make the rest of you realize that he is scum but since you seem to want to go for the second reddest person I will do that as well to ensure a lynch.

I hope that if we are wrong and Anacletus is town you will all take a second look at my case on Fencer, if Anacletus is town Fencer is even more likely to be scum.

@Intact: If Anacletus flips scum and you feel the need to go after me I can't stop you, you should go after Fencer but if you don't do that you should go after him on day three after I flip green (all this assuming I live through the next two nights which I probably won't without medic protection).

##Unvote: Fencer710
##Vote: Anacletus

Is there any way to make sure I don't have to do this in the future since I won't be around for the voting deadline? i.e. would it be possible to PM one of you to say my preferences in terms of my vote. That a lynch is better than a no lynch and a lynch on Fenccer is better than a lynch on Anacletus and so on. I want my vote to count but I also have to make it about 12 hours before the deadline which really messes with me, thanks.

On July 03 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote:
Okay it is just about time for me to call it a day.

I quickly read through the filters of Hopeless1der and Fencar. On first read, Fencar actually looks townie to me. I would really not like to lynch him today, and I hope he is not modkilled.

I'm not so sure about Hopeless1der. He looks scummy for the first half of his filter, and then it's like he turns on a switch and starts posting some good analysis on Intact and others. I want to see more from him and don't think he's a good lynch today.

Who I think we should lynch today
Fencar and Intact seem to be the popular targets.

My cursory opinion is that Fencar is town. Also, he is getting modkilled/replaced. I'd really not like to lynch him today.

I think Intact might be scum, but I'm not convinced. I think we have better targets, and I'd not like to lynch Intact today.

As I've said, both BobTheLob and BLinD-RawR look quite scummy to me. I'd be shocked if neither was scum and wouldn't be surprised if both are scum. I feel strongly that we should lynch one of these two today. I feel stronger about BLinD-Rawr.

My schedule
I'm going to sleep now, and then I'll be at work from the time I get up through the deadline. So I can't do any more significant reading or posting until after the lynch. I assure you that I will be following the thread from work though. You can count on me changing my vote to the majority candidate before the deadline if that is what is needed to prevent a No-Lynch.

But for now, I'm feeling more confident about BLinD-Rawr than BobTheLob, so I will

##Vote BlinD-Rawr

On July 05 2012 06:10 Keirathi wrote:
gg sciberbia. You were my best town read!

On July 01 2012 09:33 Promethelax wrote:
Between


and



something happened. Something more than the passage of 23 minutes. Looking into the thread it seems that it was JH and his actually bad post that convinced Myles to change his mind. See a 50% chance of hitting scum on d1 is good. I would take that on any d1 since clearly leaving us to our own devices didn't work very well. Since all that happened to change Myles' mind in thread was that one poorly thought out post I wonder if there wasn't something outside the thread that was posted, maybe in scum qt? No proof but something I'm taking into account.

He follows this with a lot of useless one-liners and non-committal attacks against both Fencer and Anacletus. After wading through the mess he has made of his posting I also found this:


where he says things that sound townie but doesn't do anything with those things.

The next post I want you to pay attention to is this one:

which brought my attention on to our hopeless friend. From this point on he knows he is being watched and his posts change slightly. After this point Wonder never hard defends himself, instead he stops posting one-liners and tries to look more active, it looks to me like a guy who knows he is under suspicsion and wants to change that. That is not a town trait. When one of us comes under suspicsion our goal should be to act in a pro-town way to hunt scum, instead 1der has posted in a pro 1der way and not attempted to hunt scum at all.

So, if that hasn't onvinced you, and I'm not sure it should I would like to give you the crowning jewl in the hopeless1der is a hopeless scum player case.



Let's look at his conclusion: it is bad to have a no lynch because if we kill of a town statistics suggests our next random lynch will be more likely to hit scum. Remember before this game started I said I was sorry if I was dumber than two rocks making love? I now present you with one of the two rocks required. Hopeless is either scum or playing an anti-town game because he has no idea what he is doing. Since the rest of us newbs figured it out I would guess it is the former rather than the latter.

On July 04 2012 04:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
By my count, sciberbia has hammered Intact, just over an hour remaining.
(See marv, I can spell his name just fine.)

On July 04 2012 04:04 BobTheLob wrote:


*Twitch* That was what I was saying before and I got bitched at for it....

On July 04 2012 12:11 BobTheLob wrote:
I've more or less given up, I dug myself a hole. I realize that I look scummy as hell and there is very little I can do to convince you otherwise because if I suddenly got a whole bunch of shit put together and did some epic reads it would just be me doing damage control and still look scummy. Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better. Also I realize that I'm dead sooooooo... Yeah FML.

On July 05 2012 13:11 Keirathi wrote:
EBWOP: I missed a point again



I had 3 people over 50, and 4 people under 50 (with a hard no-read on Fencar/Milton).

And you wanted to call me out for distorting facts.

On July 05 2012 13:43 Keirathi wrote:


That's not what I want at all. You were right, town doesn't gain much by the two of us arguing back and forth.

I will fully admit that I might be wrong about you. That's why I'm asking for other people to come in with their own thoughts about you, and about everyone else.

On July 05 2012 14:19 Keirathi wrote:


I freely admitted that I did misunderstand him. My initial read through, for some reason I thought be meant blue roles, rather than red power roles. Once he clarified what he meant, I agreed with the sentiment.

As far as the rest of your position on Umlaut, I mostly agree. However, I wasn't attacking him (in fact, his reply to my notes post felt a bit too aggressive, when I had basically given him my seal of approval), and my points on him (and you) aren't baseless. My conclusions might be wrong, but I didn't just make shit up.



Huh? Just TWO posts ago you said you believed Myles to be town. + Show Spoiler + Now you think he has a good chance of being scum again?



And re iamperfection: yea, I mostly agree that he hasn't been active enough to really make a solid read on. Second fewest posts of all the active players, and who I found the least amount of actual useful information about (ie, i basically only have 3 lines of stuff about him). He's pretty null to me as well, but he really has to come out and O* something. This is crunch time, we need everyone participating.

On July 05 2012 14:45 Keirathi wrote:


Sorry if it seemed like I was ignoring your proposal. I am of the opinion that no-lynch is a good idea for town in this situation, but in my last game (XVIII), I proposed the same plan in the same situation (5 townies, 3 scum) and spent a lot of time vehemently defending it. In the end, I got shot down (and it wouldn't have worked anyways because plurality system instead of majority in that game, which I didn't understand) repeatedly (although in hindsight, the people arguing against me were all scum), and our doc ended up getting lynched and we lost the game.

If other people are on-board, I'm all for it. I personally think it benefits town, but I won't spend time arguing for it because we just waste time that could be used discussing candidates instead.

On July 09 2012 06:57 Keirathi wrote:
Yea getting roleblocked really hurt my claim. I was really counting on having the information on Hopeless because that would have given information on multiple people rather than just the one. I was so worried about getting the one confirmation that I had out there that I never even thought about what would happen if I was roleblocked.

On July 09 2012 07:19 Hopeless1der wrote:
Its lynch or lose. Why take the risk at this point in the game of not mass claiming. Do everything possible to NOT LOSE right now. Umlaut you're saying we should keep ourselves in the dark and rely on just the information we currently have, while Scum have an information advantage. Look how that method has worked out for town so far. We haven't hit one scum yet. That argument is complete bull. The biggest downside to not claiming is I'm going to end up lynched and town will lose the game. But that's exactly what you want, isn't it Umlaut? We're supposed to play WIFOM for the rest of the day instead of just claiming and discussing things with as open a table as we can. That sounds like a superb plan for scum to keep town in the dark.

On July 10 2012 02:00 Keirathi wrote:


Other people being bad doesn't excuse *YOU* being bad. Although, I'm not really saying you're scum because you voted for Anacletus, I'm saying you're scum because you didn't vote for Anacletus. I don't think all 3 scum were on the Anacletus vote, and you and Hopeless are the only 2 still alive who weren't voting for him.

On July 10 2012 03:16 Keirathi wrote:


Still trying to buy town cred all the way to the end, eh?

At least you're consistent I guess. Entirely wrong, but consistently wrong.

On July 10 2012 04:37 Keirathi wrote:


This makes no sense. You think Prom is scum, but you would vote for Hopeless? Prom has literally been pushing Hopeless all day. It is very, very obvious that they aren't BOTH. So do you think Prom is scum, or do you think Hopeless is?

On July 10 2012 06:07 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
Oh, shit!

I should have read my role PM more closely .

On July 10 2012 06:43 iamperfection wrote:
no one told me they wold release our qt....

i regret nothing!!

On July 10 2012 06:43 Keirathi wrote:
What I mean when I say it ruined your credibility was the fact that both of you used the exact same scumteam.

Flipping Milton as green, when you had been saying that you were 99% sure of Fencer's guild, seems really, really strange in hindsight.

On July 10 2012 06:49 Keirathi wrote:


Ermm, what? I changed my investigation target to Hopeless. I believe I sent you the adendum. Is changing not allowed?

Not that it made a difference in the long run, but if you had returned me with Umlaut being scum when I asked the investigation to be changed to Hopeless, I would have been pretty upset.

On July 10 2012 07:38 Keirathi wrote:


Thanks for inviting me! It was a fun game and I'm glad I decided to accept.


@marv: okay, maybe it didn't hurt us as bad as it hurt mafia, but it certainly hindered our abilities to make overall game reads.

On July 10 2012 17:28 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
From the obs QT:


Killing JingleHell was a horrible mistake.

On July 11 2012 05:35 AmericanUmlaut wrote:

I know, and I agree . I was just joking about it because his reads were so bad later. It would have been great to have a chatty townie who was always wrong. :-D

On July 11 2012 05:53 Keirathi wrote:


If only someone called you out on it....

On July 11 2012 06:20 Hopeless1der wrote:
You did get away with it..