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woot woot got drafted /in
I have some questions about the setup/roles:
It will be 3 mafia vs 9 townies?
Is either the medic or his target notified of a successful medic save?
Is the veteran notified if he is shot?
Is the jailkeeper notified of a successful save or roleblock?
Is the jailkeeper's target informed of a successful save or roleblock?
Is the mafia roleblocker's target informed that he was roleblocked? If so, will he be told that it was by the mafia roleblocker as opposed to the jailkeeper?
Can you "roleblock" the veteran?
What happens if the jailkeeper and roleblocker target each other and the vigilante shoots the roleblocker?
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On June 12 2012 09:07 ShiaoPi wrote:To scumteam, make sure solstice gets shot n1 again  that would be 3 games in a row :D
To townteam, if solstice is not shot night 1, you should lynch him day 2 :D
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Good morning Liquidia! My heart was actually pounding as I looked at my role PM (yes I love this game too much) but I breathed a sigh of relief as I've again rolled town. I hope to convince you all of my noble allegiance with some successful scumhunting over the next few days. But I stand by my belief that a fluffy opening post is more productive than an FOS based off the way someone says hello; especially after obsing D1 of Newbie Mini XVI. So here I am, at it again. Two goals with this post:
1) Share some constructive thoughts
2) Get people talking about something (besides the fact that there is nothing to talk about: see XVI)
6 new newbies and 6 old newbies (my POV) + Show Spoiler +
One of the reasons I'm so excited for this game is that 5 of my buddies from Newbie Mini XV (a very enjoyable game) are back: austinmcc, golden, miltonkram, s0Lstice, suki
We all have some idea of what to expect from each other, so I think this will help us in making reads. However, don't put too much faith in reads based off somebody simply playing different than last game. After all, we are all newbies here and players' strategy and playstyle can change quite a bit in the first few games, whether consciously or not.
To the guys I dont know (roflwaffles55, trackd00r, Crossfire99, Mouldy_Jeb, alan133, heavOnEarth), I suggest that you look through XV if you have some spare time. It'll give you a better grasp on personalities, and let you focus on figuring out who is mafia rather than figuring out who is who.
Inactives and Lurkers+ Show Spoiler +
Chances are at least one person ends up lurking for most of D1, and I'd bet money that somebody will suggest a lurker lynch. I'm willing to lynch lurkers, but I don't want "lynch a lurker" to be the focus D1. This is for several reasons:
-- Focusing on lurkers takes the pressure off mafia. It's not too difficult for mafia to take a stance on a lurker ("he's lurking") nor to make up an excuse for a mislynch ("well he was lurking")
-- From my experience thus far in forum games, lurkers aren't any more or less likely to be mafia than anyone else
-- Also from my experience thus far in forum games, it is totally possible to identify scummy people D1 who actually have a good chance at flipping red
In summary, I ask that you keep lurkers on your mind, but not make them the hot topic of discussion. We should consider lynching them in the absence of better options.
Thoughts on the setup+ Show Spoiler +
Not really a lot of analysis we can do since all we know is there is at least 1 VT. Here is some advice for newbie blues:
Just act like a normal townie with your posts. Don't claim without a really solid reason. If it looks like you might be lynched, don't claim. If you are definitely going to be lynched, you might as well claim, but there's no guarantee that we will believe you (sorry).
@cop
Don't check people that look likely to be Night Killed or that look likely to be lynched without your help. A smart check is on an influential player that you think might be scum, but doesn't look likely to die in the near future (from either lynch or NK).
@medic, jailkeeper, veteran
Pretty self-explanatory. go save lives.
@vigilante
You really don't want to die without using your bullet, but at the same time, your bullet appreciates in value as the game goes on. You have to judge the best moment to shoot. And you should claim after using your shot unless you have a good reason not to.
NL in this setup?+ Show Spoiler +
NL seems like a really bad idea due to the uncertainty of the roles. I can't envision a scenario where it would make sense before the final 4.
So, we have to make sure to get a majority of votes each day. This can be difficult, especially in the beginning, but it is really helpful if you make yourself available in the few hours leading up to the deadline. In general, it's better to lynch a probable townie than to NL. But try not to let it come to that.
Well I think that is quite enough and hopefully prompts some people into posting.. Or you can ignore me and talk about something else. Just post! 48 hours feels shortest on D1.
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Alright it's been 5 hours and we've heard from 10 players. Pretty good activity, which is really important on D1. But I think we're done with introductions and we've thoroughly covered policy. Townies, it's time to get mean and start calling people out! Differentiate yourselves from the scum by doing some legit analysis and stating your honest reads.
That said, I'm interested in hearing opinions of suki's post on trackd00r. What do you all think of suki's analysis?
Here are my own thoughts on trackd00r+ Show Spoiler +
suki's main accusation is that trackd00r contradicted himself. I didn't find his posts to be the easiest reading, but as far as I can tell he is reasonably consistent. His stance is that NL is a very bad idea and that he would only promote NL if the alternative lynch was terribad. I'd be interested to hear him clarify.
I think suki twisted his words, or at least misinterpreted them. trackd00r said " if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch." and suki summarized this as "mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch". I don't think that's what he said.
I would concede that his first couple posts are a bit hard to follow. But poor wording is not a scumtell. I don't see a "logical slip" as suki put it. Maybe she could put it more clearly for me.
Anyways, I'm off to sleep soon. Over the next 24 hours, I'd like to see some accusations and opinions on other people's accusations. It'd be nice to have some lynch candidates on the table ~20 hours before the deadline, so we have plenty of time to debate who we should actually lynch, as well as hear everyone's opinion on the primary lynch candidate(s).
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Hey guys. I've been trying to keep up with the thread from work, but there are more posts than I have time to read and it's not really working out. Just posting to let you know that I'll not be doing major analysis and/or posting until 6-12 hours from now. Sorry about that. Keep up the discussion - it looks good.
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Just got back and am in the process of making notes on everyone, but going to be afk for a couple hours. alan133 is the topic of discussion right now so here are my thoughts on him
"I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post" + Show Spoiler +
First of all, i think he is referring to my post. Don't know why everyone's been calling it s0lstice's post.
Anyway, alan has gotten some flak for this statement but I actually think it is more townie indicative than anything.
First of all, I highly doubt he'd lie about refreshing. There's really no point to that.
Secondly, consider that he didn't have to tell us about refreshing and editing. Nobody was pressuring him. He could have easily just scrapped his post and rewritten it. If he was scum, would he want to give us extra information about what posts he's been writing? Probably not. So I see his openness with us as a townie attribute.
Accusation that he has been wishy/washy+ Show Spoiler +
He has made some statements about being neutral and unsure, explicitly talking about "merely listing the possibilities" and how he "does not trust anyone yet".
While wishyness/washiness is a common attribute of newbie scum, I don't find his stances particularly scummy. It doesn't seem like a scummy wishy/washy, just an unsure wishy/washy.
He isn't being subtle about things; he is openly stating that he is unsure. I don't see this as a scumtell.
His question to the mods+ Show Spoiler +
Seems like a pretty honest question. I doubt he's trying to make himself seem townie by asking the mods questions. Looks like he just actually wants to know. And if he were mafia, I think he'd more likely be posting this in the mafia QT
His aggressive response to roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +
He was put under the suspicion of roflwaffles and somewhat trackd00r. alan is a forum mafia newbie who doesn't know anyone here. If he was mafia, I'd expect him to be scared/timid about being accused, whereas if he is town, I'd expect him to be indignant. I liked that he was aggressive back at roflwaffles.
Overall, there is nothing I see as scummy about alan and a few things that look townie. So I think he's probably town.
got to go now. I'll be back in about two hours.
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I've been studying the thread and I currently find these 3 most suspicious: suki, Crossfire99, and HeavOnEarth
I've been staring at suki's filter for the last half hour, so I'll dedicate the rest of this post to my case on suki, and detail my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth in another post. Here are several reasons why I am suspicious of suki:
Her original accusation of trackd00r+ Show Spoiler +
suki's original accusation of trackd00r was quite strong. She says:
-- This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious...
-- BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says...
-- try to take a firm stance, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post.
-- ##vote trackd00r
She clearly thinks trackd00r has a good chance of being scum, and is interested in making everyone suspicious of him. Keep this in mind for later.
Anyway, this original accusation drew my attention for a couple reasons.
-- First of all, she twists his words, so her case isn't good
-- As austinmcc said, even if trackd00r had contradicted himself, that's not a great scumtell. Mafia don't intentionally promote mafia policies. That's way too obvious. So I think suki is attacking him for a (percieved) confusing stance, not a scumtell.
-- We lynched suki last game for being wishy/washy. I could definitely see a mafia suki making a bit of a stretch just to make an early "bold" case, and try to look townie. trackd00r would make a good target of such a case since he is new and his first couple posts were a bit confusing (difficult to read).
The way that suki backs off trackd00r+ Show Spoiler +I wasn't too suspicious based on suki's initial accusation. But I really didn't like the way in which she backed down from it. + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
As has been pointed out, the contradiction isn't as severe as I initially thought it was.
##unvote trackd00r
I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r, however my case was too weak and I feel that no useful information can be gleamed from people simply agreeing on its flimsiness.
Before, she thought there was a severe contradiction. Now, she says that there is still a contradiction, but it isn't that severe. What? I was expecting her to say that she had misread/misunderstood. I still don't see any contradiction at all. Her post suggests that she doesn't want to completely back down from her accusation, but I don't see why she is still suspicious of trackd00r at all. @suki please clarify this To me, the most scummy line in her whole filter is "I thought at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r". Reading her original response, she strongly accuses trackd00r and seems very interested in getting him lynched. This line about "at the very least" seems contradictory to that motivation.
general attitude in her filter+ Show Spoiler +
suki was super excited to play this game and was even more excited at the prospect of playing town. Look through her filter. Her posts so far aren't what I would expect from a town suki. After the initial accusation, everything she has said is bland and uninteresting. I don't think she has yet shared any real insight, or shown a lot of interest in helping town. It feels more like she is going through the motions.
how she opens the game+ Show Spoiler +
This is pretty circumstancial, so I don't expect many of you to buy into it, but I find the timing of her first two posts odd. First of all, starting the game about 4 hours late is slightly indicative of mafia. Secondly, why does she post a policy response 6 minutes after her first accusation post? She had clearly read the whole thread before posting either. This is all a bit odd to me, and I think it lends credence to the idea that she just wanted to start off boldly to avoid suspicion.
The only thing in her filter that gives me a townie feel is her recent statement about finding golden's opening post suspicious, but waiting to comment on it. Overall, I would rate suki as definitely suspicious, based mostly on her accusation of trackd00r and the way she backed down from it.
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As promised, here are my thoughts on crossfire and heavonEarth.
crossfire
There isn't any one thing that looks super scummy, but nothing in his filter gives me a townie feel, and there are a handful of small things that suggest he is scum:
his suspicions on austin+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? This is exactly the kind of D1 case I would expect a scum to make. Austin makes the somewhat peculiar assertion that there is nothing scummy about contradicting yourself on policy during the early game. Whether or not you agree with this statement is irrelevant. The point is, what does a mafia Austin stand to gain by making a statement like this? Is he planning on contradicting himself later? No. It's very likely that he actually believes what he said so the fact that he said it isn't indicative of his alignment. I don't think Austin's statement is scummy at all. But, it is definitely a statement that a mafia could attack, because it seems illogical. It's easy to criticize. And that's what crossfire did. This is the kind of thing mafia do D1: attack people for seemingly illogical statements even though it isn't a scumtell. Like the mafia's attacks on Vivax from last game.
his stance on Mouldy Jeb+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. s0Lstice, an influential player and good townie, calls Mouldy Jeb his #1 suspicion. s0Lstice then explicitly asks crossfire for an opinion on Mouldy. Crossfire does exactly what I would expect a mafia to do. Agrees with the influential player on his #1 scumread, reiterating what s0Lstice said. Mouldy Jeb would undoubtedly be an easy lynch today, and assuming that he is town, would take the pressure off mafia. And if crossfire is so suspicious of MJ, why didn't he say anything until s0Lstice prompted him? I grant that none of this is solid evidence and that a townie could plausibly act the same way, but crossfire's response is definitely consistent with mafia behavior.
Otherwise is avoiding scumhunting+ Show Spoiler +
Looking through the rest of his filter, he doesn't say much meaty stuff. In his first post, he rehashes a lot of what previous people had said. And after that, he talks a lot about policy issues such as when to vote and how to pressure people. Nothing too controversial in his entire filter.
Overall, I'd say crossfire looks a bit scummy.
HeavOnEarth
I don't have all that much too analyze with HeavOn Earth, but a couple things look scummy
throws suspicion on several easy targets+ Show Spoiler +My main problem with him is that he has halfheartedly thrown suspicion onto golden, MJ, and crossfire. All three of these players were rather quiet (at least initially) and relatively easy targets. As s0sltice said, heavOnEarth's actual cases were unimpressive. Here are heavOnEarth's scumhunting posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:...That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- *quotes Golden* Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up ) this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused. check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning?
And now he becomes wishy/washy+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play
but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point In this post he becomes wishy/washy about his suspicions on MJ and golden. In particular he says "as far as golden im still undecided". What? Before, golden seemed most suspicious to heavOnEarth. Only recently has he become undecided. This is pretty wishy/washy. The only reason I don't see this as super scummy is that he voluntarily adjusted his reads; nobody asked him to clarify them.
My suspicions on HeavOnEarth are tempered by some of the boldness in his filter, such as
-- saying "it doesn't matter if your suggestions are completely bad"
-- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours
-- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing
Overall, I'd say HeavOnEarth is somewhat suspicious
suki
I see that suki has recently doubled or tripled the size of her filter in just two posts. I'm going to read through these and figure out how they affect my read on her.
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alan133
There has been a lot of material posted on alan and an influential handful of people find him suspicious. Here's a summary of opinions on him: + Show Spoiler +
suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram
not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire
defensive: me
no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth
More of my thoughts on alan+ Show Spoiler +
With 4 people willing to vote him, he is in danger of being lynched. I still do not think he is scum. His posts may be difficult reading, but overall, I think he has tried to be open and transparent.
It is true that he has taken up a policy of being indecisive and "open minded", but he has at least stated this forthright, instead of being sneaky about it.
I didn't follow his conspiracy theory either, but half-heartedly suggesting conpsiracy theories doesn't seem like something a mafia would be likely to do.
Finally, s0Lstice and suki have both talked about alan's over-defensiveness and reactionary aggressiveness. I'm just not convinced that these are attributes of a mafia. His defense just drew even more attention to himself - something that a mafia certainly would not want. To me, his defense reads as indignant and frustrated moreso than scared.
@MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth
I'd like to hear opinions on alan. He's drawn several players' suspicions. Would you be comfortable with lynching him?
suki
my thoughts on suki's accusation of alan+ Show Spoiler +
suki recently posted a large, well-thought accusation of alan. I think she broke down his posts nicely and made some reasonable points. I could definitely see this post as analysis from a townie suki. However, alan has already been deemed suspicious by miltonkram, s0Lstice, and waffles. On top of that, his posts are difficult to follow and easy to attack. So I could also see a mafia suki making this post. Overall, I consider it a small point in her favor for doing some dedicated scumhunting.
my thoughts on suki's defense+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 13:36 suki wrote:
@sciberbia
I think a lot of your argument stems from the impression that I was absolutely sure trackd00r was scum. I definitely worded my post that way on purpose, in spite of knowing my case wasn't solid.
I was genuinely surprised that my case was as weak as it was. Basically one good post from you was strong enough to let everyone basically say 'yeah, I agree.' My comment that 'at the very least I could rouse a response from trackd00r' was because I thought even if my case was really weak, I could aggravate an interesting reply from trackd00r, but it didn't.
Regarding the contradiction, and the comment that the contradiction isn't as severe as I thought it was. It's simply not taking the time to really think about the topic, after reading the rebuttals and being disappointed. There is no contradiction, it was just me being careless with my choice of words.
Actually, the offhanded and subtly confident way he deflected my attack is a townie point for him in my book, so as it stands I don't suspect trackd00r at all.
Hmhm. I just posted a big thing on alan. I have been away all day and it took me forever to look at the thread and all the filters and make a post that really contributed to the thread.
As for opening the game, I posted my policy post after the accusation because I wrote the accusation first. I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that.
And now I've spent like three hours on these two posts and I have things to do before I sleep, so good night! I'll try to find time in the morning to contribute but I may not be able to until after work. I'm suspicious of this explanation because it is admitting that she was being nontransparent. She's basically asking us not to hold her to what she said, because she didn't really mean what she said. It's possible that she is town and was just being devious to start some discussion, but non-transparency is a definite mafia characteristic. Similarly, her line about "I did want to start the thread off boldly, I'll give you that" suggests adhering to her own personal agenda to look townie, which is more consistent with a mafia's objectives than a townie's.
In summary, suki's last two posts do little to alleviate my suspicions.
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Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work.
It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so!
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan.
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@austinmcc
Sorry but as I've said, I'm busy and won't be able to post much for the next few hours. The thread will have my full attention for the last hour and a half before the deadline, and I'll help organize the lynch.
@all
Crossfire has drawn suspicions of several people, and now he has finally posted both a substantial post and defense. Getting fresh opinions on him is important right now. Please share your opinion on him if you haven't already, and update your opinion if it has changed as a result of his defense.
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Lynch Candidates based on everyone's stated convictions
HeavOnEarth
interested in lynching(8): suki, me, s0lstice, roflwaffle, milton, alan, austin, golden
no comment(3): trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Many people want to lynch him and nobody is actually defending him at the moment. There is much less consensus on the other candidates (see below).
Crossfire
interested in lynching(5): me, austin, trackd00r, milton, heavOnEarth
not convinced(4): s0lstice, golden, alan, suki
no comment(2): MJ, roflwaffles
Some people find him suspicious. Others remain unconvinced. I don't think it makes sense to lynch him over HeavOnEarth because some people actually don't find him suspicious.
Mouldy Jeb
The argument for lynching him is extreme lurking and unhelpfulness. I'm not against lynching lurkers if we don't have any good lynch candidates. But in this case we do: most people find HeavOnEarth scummy. In addition, we get little information from MJ's flip, whereas we get quite a bit from heavOnEarth.
golden
I haven't gone through the filter, but I just don't get the feeling that there is enough suspicion on him to warrant a lynch over HeavOnEarth.
IN SUMMARY
HeavOnEarth seems like the consensus lynch target. Personally, I think he has a good chance of flipping red. I'll detail my thoughts on him in a subsequent post. Overall, seems like the sensible player to lynch.
@heavOnEarth
It looks likely that you will be lynched today. Please post a defense and more importantly give as many reads as you can.
@trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Please post your opinion on HeavOnEarth as soon as possible. It's important that everyone weighs in on the lynch candidates, especially the one that looks most likely to be lynched.
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My thoughts on HeavOnEarth:
I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden.
On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies.
Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"?
Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down.
Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him.
##Vote HeavOnEarth
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@miltonkram, @s0Lstice, @austinmcc
I'm not too disconcerted by the near unanimous voting. If HeavOnEarth is scum, there are only 2 more scum out of 11 other players. 3 players have yet to comment on HeavOnEarth at all, and there could quite possibly be some bussing going on. As s0Lstice said, scum could probably see the writing on the wall. Are you guys actually less suspicious of heavOnEarth due to the voting or are you just being pessimistic? How do the votes affect the likeliness that heavOnEarth is mafia in your eyes?
I want to reiterate some of the things I said earlier, because the thread has been relatively quiet in the last hour, and right now is a very important time for activity.
@heavOnEarth
You are very likely getting lynched today. Your posting right now can only help town. If you are townie and are looking at the thread, you should definitely be posting reads right now.
@trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
If any of you are in the thread right now, you should take the opportunity to state your opinion on heavOnEarth before he flips rather than after, in the interest of giving town more information.
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fuck yes :D
well done everyone!
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awesome job guys. I'll be going through filters during the next few hours. I'm optimistic about lynching another mafia tomorrow.
@Crossfire
That sucks man. Good luck with getting everything sorted out. And I hope you don't get modkilled.
@all
Now seems like a good time to share a couple more thoughts about night actions that have been bouncing around in my head. Nothing too crucial, but just some suggestions.
@vigi: consider claiming your shot just before the daypost
+ Show Spoiler +
There's a lot of personal judgement that goes into this, but if you are afraid of being NK'd, and you are using your shot, consider claiming it seconds before the daypost. Then if you get NK'd and flip vigi, we aren't deprived of information.
on claiming RB's
+ Show Spoiler +
If you are RB'd by the mafia roleblocker, it would be really helpful for you to claim the RB. It just gives the town information that the mafia already has.
If on the other hand you are RB'd by the jailkeeper, claiming the RB probably isn't in the town's best interest because it lets mafia know the existance of a jailkeeper.
Of course, the problem is that you will not know for sure who RB'd you. But depending on who you are, it could be pretty obvious. If you are pretty sure it was a mafia roleblocker that roleblocked you, you should claim it.
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I've gone through the filters and updated my reads. I think we are in pretty good shape due to yesterday's lynch. There are a handful of players that look pretty townie after HeavOnEarth's flip, and having a bunch of townreads alive is great for us.
Even more importantly, there is one player in particular who looks quite scummy after yesterday: roflwaffles55
roflwaffles gets more and more suspicious as the day goes on, but I'll start with minor things at the beginning, and go through his noteworthy posts chronologically
his comment on trackd00r+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well.
However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands.
He avoids taking a stance on trackd00r using phrases such as "weren't particularly convincing" and "little bit lackluster". His language is slightly scummy to begin with. And he doesn't actually contribute his own opinion. Minor points.
his case on alan+ Show Spoiler +Overall, I thought his case on alan was reasonable, but a bit of a stretch. On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:
This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. At that early point in the game, I personally wasn't very suspicious of anyone, and not many suspicions had been voiced overall. Yet roflwaffles criticizes alan for not forming any cases or applying pressure. Only miltonkram and suki had previously applied pressure. roflwaffle's decision to attack alan feels arbitrary, much like HeavonEarth's decision to attack golden. On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:
He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. This is a stretch. alan throws suspicion at miltonkram in order to get people to start suspecting miltonkram so that alan isn't in the spotlight? Kinda farfetch'd. In summary, roflwaffle's original case against alan wasn't terrible, but definitely didn't impress me or make him look townie.
his probing of MJ+ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:18 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Hey mouldyjeb, glad to see you posting! Do you have any other evidence or reasons beyond miltons lighthearted attitude at the beginning? State them if you do, as well as any suspicions against me! Don't keep them to yourself!
Also, what are your opinions on the cases so far, like mine against alan133 and suki's against trackd00r?
I ask these because that was a fairly lackluster post when it comes to your first of the game and id like you to bring some fresh opinions to the table. Here roflwaffles probes MJ a bit and calls his first post "fairly lackluster". This is an easy post to make and puts attention on a lurky player (who I think is town). Another minor point.
backing off of alan+ Show Spoiler +This is where I start to get some significant suspicions. The only two people that originally repsonded to roflwaffle's case on alan were alan and suki. Alan posted a counteraggressive defense, and suki said she didn't find the case very convincing. So roflwaffles felt some heat on his case. On June 14 2012 01:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:
While I am completely aware that my case has several holes in it, nobody can expect an ironclad case halfway through D1. The points you bring up in the first half of your response to me continue to be ambiguous, I'm glad you started to get your legitimate opinions out there, being quiet and neutral will get us nowhere. Both of our initial posts tended to agree with the majority, but as I said, that wasn't the focus of my argument, it was the post on the suki argument that got my suspicions roused. Previously, roflwaffles said that alan was acting "quite scummy" and voted him. Now he is "completely aware that my case has several holes in it". I agree with miltonkram's sentiment that roflwaffle's inital case on alan was reasonable, and it is a bit odd how he backs away from it here. On June 14 2012 01:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Yes, I did vote you, but you forget that votes are easily removable, and the fact that you had to write a sensationalist paragraph in red text rather then just poke through the obvious logical holes in my cases convince me that you have something to lose, whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play. More suspicious statements here. His pointing out that votes are easily removeable makes him seem scared of alan. Again, he talks about the "obvious logical holes" in his cases. I didn't see any obvious logical holes in roflwaffle's case and I don't think roflwaffles did either, seeing as he called alan "quite scummy" and subsequently voted him. Finally, being coninvced that alan has something to lose "whether it be scum, blue, or just poor play" is not townie analysis. Townies are only interested in finding scum. And roflwaffles is further distancing himself from his own accusation of alan.
continues to attack alan+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 15:03 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm currently waiting on Mouldy Jeb's and alan133's responses to the cases brought against them, until something convinces me otherwise, I still believe that alan133 is increasingly suspicious.
roflwaffles did some more attacking on alan, but didn't have any new reasons to be suspicious, merely stating that alan's lack of arguments is suspicious. But you could say this about many players. I'm not sure why roflwoffles "still believes that alan133 is increasingly suspicious". Also, note that he is still anti-MJ.
analyzes the danger of each potential mafia+ Show Spoiler +I find this post really scummy. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
Crossfire99
Sciberbia posted a convincing case on him already, and several people have posted tidbits on him, however, nobody has put the focus on him (partially my fault). Therefore, if he is in fact following the thread and trying slide under the radar of suspicion while we focus on alan133, suki, and HeavOnEarth, he is going to get away with it.
His play was very lackluster and never brought fresh reads to the table. Out of everyone, if he is scum, he seems to be one of the most dangerous to let live.
alan133
I've already tunneled the crap out of him, and his defenses have been drastic and overly reactionary. If he were left alive, I honestly think he could do a fair bit of damage as scum, just because he defends very well and seems to have people convinced as to his innocence.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
suki
It would be self-serving of me to defend suki, as she took my case against alan133 and improved it, I believe in her case. But for the benefit of the doubt, let's assume she's scum. The strength or lack thereof (trapd00r case) of her cases imply that she's trying to lead the vote towards those that aren't scum.
If she is scum, she could be quite dangerous later on.
All of that theorizing on what they "could" do if they were scum being done...
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 This kind of analysis is just really useless. Our goal isn't to lycnh players that would be dangerous if they are scum. On the contrary, it is to figure out who actually is scum. But roflwaffles doesn't do that here. Previously, roflwaffles had said nothing about crossfire, but now votes crossfire because he is the most "lynchable" and potentially dangerous scum. These are pretty bad reasons, and Crossfire had some serious suspicion on him already. roflwaffles is just jumping on the bandwaggon with poor reasoning. roflwaffles is all over the place with HeavOnEarth. He describes HeavOnEarth as "quite suspicious", but says he could just as easily be an awful townie. On June 15 2012 02:47 roflwaffles55 wrote:
Oh shit, forgot about Mouldy Jeb.. obviously he's an easy lynch to make, and if we can't come to a majority then we should just get rid of him barring some legitimate posts on his part. Continues to support a lynch of Mouldy Jeb. Overall, this recent activity is quite scummy imo.
further scummy defense of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99
##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. This just reads as a blatantly scummy defense to me, knowing that HeavOnEarth is mafia. He is trying to say that he suspected HeavOnEarth all along, but that he was hoping for something more (???) He also questions the information we get from a HeavOnEarth lynch, which is a secondary issue. If he is scummy, we should lynch him. Finally, he attributes his difference of opinion to "new player optimism" which is a scummy excuse.
In summary, I think there is a pretty good chance roflwaffles is scum, based mostly on his last couple of posts before the deadline.
I'm super tired now and going to sleep. I'll be pretty busy for the rest of night phase, so you probably won't see much more posting out of me this night. But I'll have plenty of time to dedicate to the game this weekend, so I expect to be quite active during D2.
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Been following the thread from work. It seems we are all in agreement that roflwaffles is quite scummy. Just want to say that I fully approve of vigi shooting him. It's pretty likely he flips red and I'd rather just see the flip and move on rather than having our discussion stagnate for two days. Also, it is a really good shot that vigi is guaranteed to be able to get off without being NK'd.
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@Unforgiven
Welcome to the game! Yes, night ends in about 6 hours.
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Hey guys. I only got back to my computer about half an hour ago. Still catching up on recent posts. I quickly reread through the filters of bot suki and austinmcc, and I find suki more suspicious. But I need to study her filter more before coming to any conclusions. I haven't looked much at golden or trackd00r. If I'm still alive D2, I'll do some serious filter studying of each of these players and post more well-founded reads.
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@s0lstice
I don't think it makes too much a difference whether vigi claims or not. Vigi will obviously claim if in danger of being lynched, and we will obviously believe them unless there is a cc (in which case it's gg). So the only way vigi can ever get lynched is if it comes down to 3/4 players left and the scum fakeclaims vigi. So I don't think it can possibly hurt for vigi to wait until 5/6 players left before claiming.
I think there is a very slight benefit to vigi not claiming today. The benefit is that scum has fewer good NK options.
Overall, I think it'd be very slightly beneficial for vigi to wait till 5/6 players left before claiming. But it's not at all a big deal, and if vigi judges that the knowledge that they (the vigi) is confirmed is helpful to town, I have no problem with that.
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gg roflwaffles
still haven't read actually read the daypost lol but I guess I'll go back and read it as it's gotten good reviews
and yea NK of austin is quite odd. I'll have to think about this a bit..
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crap just realized there could potentially be two vigis. So my previous thoughts about cc'ing vigi and scum fakeclaiming vigi don't fully apply. Still, I think it is most likely that there is only 1 vigi, and I don't think it really matters whether or not he claims today.
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Just a couple of small things before I sleep.
@alan
I really wouldn't be suspicious of s0Lstice just for suggesting that the vigi claim. As he explained, it really isn't that big of a deal.
thoughts on NK (or lack thereof)
+ Show Spoiler +
I've been trying, but I can't think of any likely explanation for the mafia's choice to NK austinmcc. So I'm pretty much just going to disregard the NK.
@s0Lstice
as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice some suspicions against suki yesterday. But I don't think that is really indicative of anything anyway.
check your PM's to see if you were RB'd
+ Show Spoiler +
If you were RB'd and you don't think you were a target of the jailkeeper (not a top 2 or 3 NK candidate) you should claim it now. No reason to wait in claiming this. And it tells us that the last mafia is a roleblocker (assuming you're telling the truth)
I'm going to sleep now. I'll be going over filters and doing analysis during the day tomorrow. You can expect some posts from me on lynch candidates within 18 to 24 hours.
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Just got up.
First of all, alan has claimed vigilante. if anybody else is vigilante, you should claim NOW.
@s0Lstice
I do not like your plan. It completely disregards night actions and also prevents us from making better reads based on what people post. There's a pretty decent chance we have a cop, and we surely have at least 1 power role. I think we'd have a good chance to win with your plan, but it's not guaranteed. It's the lazy way to go, and we have an even better chance to win by continuing discussion, making reads, and getting information from night actions. Also, why are you so suspicious of unforgiven/MJ?
I'm going to start looking at the cases on trackd00r, golden, and suki.
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I'm in favor of scrapping the plan.
I don't see any advantage to making the list "non-negotiable" except for ending the game faster, which isn't listed anywhere as part of our win condition.
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@s0Lstice, alan
It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now.
about the plan
I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not.
I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads.
@alan
I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia..
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I've gone through the case on suki, and I get the same feeling as s0Lstice; that suki is mafia and did a better job than last game of hiding it.
Here are some things I find suspicious about her:
her fist case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it+ Show Spoiler +
This has been covered already by both me and s0Lstice so I'm not going to say anything more about it here. I've found this suspicious from the start.
her stances on alan+ Show Spoiler +
Initially, she defends alan from the confirmed scum roflwaffles. Fine.
Here were the stances on alan when suki completely changed her mind on him:
aggressive: roflwaffle, miltonkram, s0Lstice
defensive: crossfire, sciberbia, trackdoor, suki
alan is now confirmed vigilante. Suki changing her mind here is pretty suspicious. She originally defended alan from roflwaffe. But after miltonkram and s0Lstice, two influential townies, jump on board against alan, suki changes her stance. With suki, miltonkram, s0Lstice, and roflwaffle against alan, he stood a chance of being mislynched.
suki's plan to get alan mislynced seems to have backfied when s0Lstice and miltonkram hop off the alan train, leaving her and confirmed scum roflwaffles as the only passengenrs. Naturally, she eventually hops off the train as well. Note that it only took her 1 post of alan, and an hour and 4 minutes, to do a complete 180 on him.
her stances on MJ and crossfire+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 13:21 suki wrote:
Regarding Mouldyjeb, I agree that he is confusing, however his filter is also quite short. His words definitely are not pro-town, but in my opinion they aren't inherently scummy either, it could just as easily be poor town play.
MJ was probably the easiest lynch yesterday. Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffles put pressure on MJ, so it makes sense that the third scum wouldn't do the same thing. But of course she wouldn't want to be defensive of MJ either, so she could leave open the option of voting him. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
Crossfire99:
I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same.
In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone.
In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game.
In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much.
Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not.
Crossfire also stood a danger of being mislynched D1, and both confirmed scum pushed for a crossfire lynch. So it also makes sense that the third scum wouldn't want to be on that same bandwaggon. Suki kinda defends crossfire, but concludes that she is not sure. This makes sense for a mafia: softly defend someone who will be mislynched, but leave yourself the option of voting him.
scummy defense of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
About HeavOnEarth:
HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward.
While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision. First of all, she only comments on HeavOnEarth after being explicitly asked by s0Lstice. Then she kinda soft defends him and delays making a decision. Here were the stances on HeavOnEarth when she finally decides to bus him: - aggressive: s0Lstice, sciberbia, miltonkram, alan, roflwaffles (kinda) - defensive: austinmcc She could certainly see the writing on the wall by that point. And she also starts to accuse him around the same time that roflwaffles decides to bus him.
one of her comments on me+ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 00:38 suki wrote:
I'm confused why sciberbia would be so suspicious of me. Perhaps its bias from the previous game when I was mafia, but I don't feel I've been playing in a scummy way. This quote struck me as odd. I'd have expected a town suki to be suspicious of me for accusing her. But instead she makes an excuse for my "bad read". Minor thing.
accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was clearly more suspicious to everyone else+ Show Spoiler +
Everybody else was super suspicious of roflwaffles. But she made a big case against trackd00r instead. It's possible she just made a bad read, but this is another minor point against her.
She only accuses roflwaffles after the following list of people want his blood: miltonkram, alan, sciberbia, s0lstice, crossfire. Looks like another bus.
I haven't gone through the cases on trackd00r or golden yet, but I think its pretty likely suki is the last mafia, so
##Vote suki
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@suki
Sorry, I realize that point was not clear. I was pointing out that roflwaffles (not trackd00r) was the most scummy candidate and indeed is confirmed scum. If you were townie, I'd expect you to find roflwaffles more scummy than trackd00r. It's a minor point against you that you didn't find roflwaffles super scummy until everybody else did.
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@suki
on ignoring your defense+ Show Spoiler +
I understand it's frustrating when people ignore a defense post that you spent a lot of time on, but I never set much store by a suspect's explanation of their actions.
If you are mafia, you will construct plausible townie explanations for your actions. If you are town, you will give the plausible townie explanations for your actions. I find it very hard to distinguish between a scummy explanation and a townie explanation.
I agree that there exists a plausible townie explanation for your actions, and I'm not surprised that you were able to provide it (whether you are town or mafia). For what it's worth, you will have at least made me feel really bad if I'm wrong about you.
why I am suspicious of you+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote:
I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious..
You are not being targetted because you have been bold, upfront, and not scared of making mistakes. Of the 9 players alive, you and trackd00r have the unique combination of a) not being attacked by either of the 2 confirmed scum b) not contributing much to the death of our 2 confirmed scum Also neither of you have c) contributed much towards stopping mislynches Of the two of you, you have done more toward pushing mislynches (you pushed alan and were neutral on MJ; trackd00r defended alan and was slightly defensive of MJ) and done less toward contributing to the successful lynch (you defend HeavOnEarth at first;trackd00r doesn't comment). So I find you more suspicious. I'll probably comment on the case against trackd00r at some point tonight. If not, tomorrow. If you are actually town, you can at least find solace in the fact that trackd00r is very unlikley to survive to the end of this game if he is scum. My suspicions toward you are a result of finding the most likely explanation. Either a,b, and c above are true because you are mafia, or they are true because you have had some bad luck and bad reads. I think the more likely explanation is the former.
@miltonkram on suki's vote+ Show Spoiler +
I agree it'd take some guts for both mafia to commit to a HeavOnEarth bus, but I think suki would be up to it. I think their planned mislynch (alan) was clearly not coming to fruition. I think we pretty clearly would have lynched HeavOnEarth even without their help. Who else would we have lynched? Crossfire is the only person other person who stood any chance of being lynched, and I just don't think that was going to happen.
Again, here are the stances on HeavOnEarth just before you, suki, and roflwaffles voted him:
s0Lstice - top target
sciberbia - one of top 3
miltonkram - one of top 3
austinmcc - HeavOnEarth looks bad, but prefers other targets
alan - top target
roflwaffles - thinks he is suspicious
suki - soft defended
I agree that trackd00r looks bad for his whole lack of D1 opinion on HeavOnEarth. I'd probably push to lynch him next if suki flips town. But I find the case against suki pretty good. I'll post on trackd00r sometime in the next 24 hours for sure.
A couple of things in suki's favor+ Show Spoiler +
suki's posts have made me feel so potentially guilty for being wrong about her, I've looked for things in her favor.
Since early D1, I have been getting more of a townie vibe from her posts. Still, she made a pretty good defense last game, so I think she'd be up to giving off a townie vibe as mafia.
Another thing - I think suki would have conceded by now if she was mafia. But maybe not. Minor point in her favor.
I only just thought about the NK again.
I really don't see suki making the NK of austinmcc. Does not seem in character at all. Only thing I can think of is that austinmcc voiced suspicions of suki D1 and was defensive of trackd00r. Still, really don't see it. I'd have expected her to kill someone like me or miltonkram (not s0Lstice for fear of medic save).
You know who seems more likely to have NK'd austinmcc? trackd00r
I don't have that strong a feel for trackd00r's personality or playstyle, so I wouldn't be as surprised that the NK was austin as I would be if suki was mafia.
Also, if you look at the blue text during N1, the mods kept asking for night actions. I think it's likely that this is because the mafia didn't send in their kill yet.
roflwaffles was MIA the entire night. suki was pretty active throughout the night, and trackd00r only came back at the end. So one likely explanation for the mods asking for night actions is that both remaining mafia were afk for most of the night phase, and the mods were worried that they wouldn't send in an NK. Maybe trackd00r only sent in the kill at the end.
Is alan allowed to tell us what time he submitted his night action and if he submitted it to both hosts?
In summary
-- suki and trackd00r are in my tier of top suspicion
-- I find suki more suspicious based on posts
-- I just realized that the whole NK business suggests trackd00r is mafia rather than suki
-- I'll study track00r more over the next 24 hours and post more thoughts
-- I think we will probably end up lynching both of them anyway (assuming we don't win today), so it's hardly likely to matter.
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It seems we are lynching trackd00r today. I've gone through the case on him. As I said before, he and suki are most suspicious to me because they are the only ones who
a) were not attacked by a confirmed scum
b) did not contribute much to the death of confimed scum
Honestly, suki still looks more suspicious to me based on D1 and N1. Here are a couple points in trackd00r's favor
challenges me & s0Lstice early on+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:04 trackd00r wrote:
s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia?
I'm off to bed now. Can't do much atm. Will be back in 8 hours ~ Minor thing. Takes some guts as mafia to question influential townies.
was actually more defensive of MJ than most people+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 03:44 trackd00r wrote:
First of all, sorry for my bad English. I'll try to check my grammar before posting.
Mouldy Jeb's play is confusing as hell.
Not only his posts have no real town content, but the way he writes them makes me feel I'm looking at a completely different game.
Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play. Since he stated that in his last game he got lynched D1, the latter option is what I'm taking at the moment.
@Mouldy: What do you think of last miltonkram post? Do you keep your stance on him? suki stated in her case that he was at first aggressive toward MJ, but later backed off. It looks to me like he is slightly defensive of MJ, moreso than most people. I would not expect the mafia to do any defending of MJ on D1.
directly addressed roflwaffles on alan
+ Show Spoiler +
trackd00r made a kinda weird post where he addressed roflwaffles and stated that the case on alan isn't going anywhere. Another minor point in his favor: from what I've seen, newbie scum rarely address each other in the thread on D1.
Obviously, he is still pretty suspicious for pushing the wrong people (golden & crossfire) and also not talking about HeavOnEarth until the last minute.
Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki.
I already talked about how the mod's blue text suggests to me that the mafia hadn't submitted their NK. And I think this would be more likely due to trackd00r than suki.
Also, suki has been very active and I just don't see why she would be putting in all this effort if she is scum. Maybe just to make us do 1 more mislynch? On the other hand, trackd00r has been pretty quiet since the day post.
In summary
I don't feel overly confident about either of suki's or trackd00r's cases individually. But they are definitely top 2 candidates on my list and I think both have a decent chance of being the last scum. I'm honestly not sure which I think is more likely the last mafia, but it seems suki has at least guilted us into lynching trackd00r first so...
##unvote
##Vote trackd00r
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oh forgot to say this
@trackd00r
IF YOU ARE A BLUE, CLAIM NOW!
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EBWOP: dammit stole the mod's font again... why do mod text and townie roles have the same color :/ sorry hosts
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@s0Lstice
I guess you're probably right about suki. Her behavior would be rather odd if she is mafia. I just feel weird basing analysis off reasoning such as why the last scum hasn't given up by now. I mean scum technically shouldn't ever concede or give up, just to keep us honest, so we can't pull analysis like this in future.
Maybe I'm just being dumb, but I don't really get why the OOPS post is such a scumslip. Maybe trackd00r found suki third most suspicious, so he put her name on the list. But then he decided he didn't want to do analysis on her, so decided not to put her on the list, and for whatever reason didn't edit it out correctly before hitting submit. If he is scum, he surely could have concocted a better lie than OOPS. And as he pointed out, the two "ands" in that sentence suggest that he was trying to only put two people.
Anyway, I just don't see any really great evidence that trackd00r is scum. He made some bad reads and not the best cases. But that can happen to townies too. I'm just not as convinced about him as I was about heist last game or roflwaffles this game. I think he only looks as scummy as he does by process of elimination, so I'm a little worried that we're wrong.
But hopefully I'm just being a pessimist/skeptic and we'll all be celebrating a win in 5 hours. So cheers to that.
just to reiterate
@trackd00r CLAIM IF YOU ARE BLUE
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Thread is pretty quiet. I'm optimistic that trackd00r is scum seeing as he hasn't defended himself or even voted.
Will trackd00r be modkilled or replaced if he does not vote? Same question for unforgiven.
Is anybody else
a) in the thread?
b) thinking it'd be a good idea to switch our lynch to suki if the hosts guarantee a modkill on trackd00r?
I doubt we'll have enough people here to pull that off anyway, but can't hurt to ask.
@trackd00r
If you are looking at this thread, please speak up now. And claim if you are blue.
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@s0Lstice
I'll post more later. For now, what are your opinions on miltonkram?
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@alan
I don't think mass roleclaim is a good idea. If we have a cop, we probably don't have a medic/jailkeepr, so I don't want to make cop come out before he judges it's the right time. Also, it's a semi-open setup, so it's pretty damn hard to figure out if anyone is lying.
Anyway, I've been kidna panicking a bit after seeing the trackd00r flip. I was looking foward to enjoying some post game talk, but now I'll just be happy if I don't feel like an idiot after this game.
Anyway, here are some reads on the 7 players left not named sciberbia:
short version:+ Show Spoiler +
alan - confirmed vigi
MJ/unforgiven - probably town
golden - probably town
s0Lstice - probably town
crossfire - probably town
miltonkram - idk
suki - kinda scummy
long version:
alan+ Show Spoiler +
confirmed vigi. Nobody else claimed the shot, and somebody obviously did it, so alan is for sure vigi.
golden+ Show Spoiler +
I'd be pretty shocked if golden were mafia. I honestly haven't even looked at his filter that much, but just from looking at roflwaffles's filter, I don't think golden can be mafia.
crossfire+ Show Spoiler +
Both confirmed scum attacked him, and tried to get him lynched. Also, the two confirmed scum are failry newbie (no offense) so I just don't see this as being a bus. Pretty definite he is town.
MJ/unforgiven+ Show Spoiler +
Nothing in these 2 filters is of much value, but as s0Lstice pointed out, both confirmed scum had no problem dumping suspicion on MJ. So I think it's pretty unlikely that he is scum.
s0Lstice+ Show Spoiler +
Hmm I guess it's possbile that s0Lstice just bussed the crap out of the other scum, and in hindsight it probably would have been a smart strategy for him to pull as mafia. And s0Lstice is a pretty smart player.
But he has played about as pro-town as you can get and his whole filter gives me a townie feel. I'm slightly paranoid that he could be mafia, but I really just don't see it.
miltonkram+ Show Spoiler +
I'm not saying that he looks really scummy, but I don't see why he can't be scum. The only major thing in his favor is his pretty good accusations of HeavOnEarth during D1. But I could maybe see him making that bus. I'll write more about him in another post.
suki+ Show Spoiler +
I feel it's pretty likely that suki is the last mafia. I've already written a lot on her case.
The only things really holding me back are the NK of austinmcc and her high activity D2. But I don't see how we can not lynch her just based on that. Maybe she just wanted to see if she could avoid one more lynch for the lulz? Idk..
So in response to s0Lstice's query, I'm totally down with lynching suki D3 (sorry suki).
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The case against miltonkram
I think that suki is most likely to be the last scum. But if she flips town, the next person I'd want to lynch would be miltonkram. I don't think he's especially scummy, but he is not at the almost-definite-town status at which I place every player besides him and suki. I'm writing this case against him because nobody else seems to want to lynch him, and I'm worried he could survive to the end of the game as mafia.
First of all, I grant that his playstyle seems similar to his town from NMM XV, and that his filter gives off a townie vibe. But that's not conclusive evidence. Not the same level townie-evidence as for people like crossfire, golden, or MJ, who were mercilessly attacked by 2 confirmed scum on D1.
miltonkram's stances during D1+ Show Spoiler +ordering is roughly chronological trackdoor - neutral suki - suspicious crossfire - suspicious alan - "fairly decent" case against him roflwaffles - suspicious, but then backs off MJ - #1 on scumdar alan - very suspicious, but then backs off HeavOnEarth - would vote, then votes His suspicions on roflwaffles don't do anything to clear him in my mind. Nobody was really suspicious of roflwaffles at that point, and miltonkram backed off his suspicions reasonably quickly, so roflwaffles wasn't really in any danger based on miltonkram's actions. Otherwise, he throws suspicion onto a bunch of people that are town (assuming milton is last mafia): suki, crossfire, alan (kinda), MJ. This isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either. Helping to Lynch HeavOnEarthMiltonkram does contribute to the lynch of HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only me and s0Lstice have accused him, and then applying the third vote to HeavOnEarth. This is certainly evidence in favor of miltonkram being town, but I could maybe see him pulling the bus as mafia. It would honestly be the smart move. And it wouldn't be the riskiest bus ever or anything. He originally listed HeavOnEarth as 1 of a list of 3, and it was after s0Lstice and I accused him already -- pretty safe townies to side with, but a bandwaggon of 3 doesn't assure a lynch. To me, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible busses.Putting the third vote on HeavOnEarth would definitely be a ballsy move, but maybe he judged it was the best choice. And if he is mafia, it probably was. Also here's some food for thought: On June 17 2012 11:17 Miltonkram wrote:
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. This isn't a strong point, so my opinions aren't the only things hinging on this.
about the NK (worth reading I think)+ Show Spoiler +@s0Lstice First of all, as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice suspicions of suki during D1, so your logic as to why suki might have killed austinmcc doesn't hold. This is the the second time I've gotten the feeling you don't thoroughly read my posts. Tsk Tsk. Maybe it's a sign I shouldn't write so much :p Anyway, I've been thinking and thinking and thinking about the NK. It doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. + Show Spoiler +But actually now that I think about it, all of the sensible NK targets voiced suspicions of suki: me, s0Lstice, alan, miltonkram. So maybe suki would have found some reason to kill austinmcc. Anyway, the best explanation I have come up with for the hit on austinmcc is that the last mafia thought that they could avoid getting lynched as long as there was no cop. And for whatever reason they thought austinmcc might be cop. Miltonkram is someone who can reasonably hope to avoid being lynched without a cop. But he was honestly a pretty good cop check last night. So maybe that's why he picked austinmcc over me/s0Lstice/alan. austinmcc does seem most likely to be cop out of those 4. Also, miltonkram was gone almost the entire night. Him being scum would totally fit into my theory about scum not submitting their NK until the last minute. Also look at this post from miltonkram. I found this to be really bad advice the second I read it. The point of a breadcrumb is for people not to notice it. Maybe he was fishing for the cop? On June 16 2012 07:34 Miltonkram wrote:
EBWOP:Breadcrumb your actions right at the end of the night. That way scum don't have a chance to catch your breadcrumb before they send in their night actions. Finally, this isn't exactly related to Miltonkram, but I think it's quite possible that the last mafia is roleblocker and RB'd austin last night. This would work out great for mafia if austin was vigi/cop/veteran. And it doesn't let us know the presence of a roleblocker. Maybe the mafia felt austin looked blue, and that's why he died?
IN SUMMARY
-- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town
-- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie
-- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation
P.S. Every single time suki posts, I feel worse and worse about lynching her. But I think she is the only sensible choice.
P.P.S. @Miltonkram don't feel obliged to write a defense post to this. There's honestly not much to explain as most of your actions make good sense for a townie. Assuming we don't win D3, you'd have to convince me somebody else is more scummy than you for me not to push you D4. Maybe you could explain the breadcrumbing comment though.
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@suki
I just have to say, if you are the last mafia, you are a total jerk :p You're making my life way more stressful than it needs to be right now.
Also, if/when it becomes clear that we are lynching you, please claim your 2 night actions if you are blue.
You're analysis about a "strong player" seems to suggest I or s0Lstice am mafia. I have to admit there is logic to what you are saying. It's more likely that the sneaky third scum would bus the 2 dead newbie confirmed scum, than that the 2 dead newbie confirmed scum would bus the third, sneaky, alive scum. That is why I am most suspicious of miltonkram after you. And I'd have to consider s0Lstice if both you and miltonkram flip town. But only after getting out of the hospital and recovering from my heart attack.
Anyway, I'll be going to bed soon and might not be posting for a while.
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Hey guys - I just got up and got to work. I see there are some suspicions on me, but I'm at work until 6pm EST. So, I'll probably not be defending myself until early D3, assuming I'm still alive. Just wanted to let you know.
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@crossfire, alan
I think s0Lstice already covered most of the relevant points and it seems like you (crossfire) didn't think I was mafia anyway. Do you still want to hear me explain my actions or would I just be wasting time? I'll at the very least explain my comments on vigilantes when I get home.
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Just wrote up explanations of some of my actions that you guys pointed out. Here you go:
Crossfire's post analyzing the lynch of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler +During N1, Crossfire made a post analyzing the who/how/when of the HeavOnEarth wagon: + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 14:24 Crossfire99 wrote:Ok now let's analyze this lynch. Solstice drew the first blood with these + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarthHe's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:morning everyone  First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet. That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. and this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote:
Some housekeeping stuff first..
I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure.
austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better.
Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here.
##vote HeavOnEarth . His case on Heavon was solid and good. It doesn't seem like a mafia bus attempt to me (it's too well thought out and puts legit pressure on Heavon), so I see him as a townie. Then alan joins the fun with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:00 alan133 wrote:I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki. @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler +And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad later jumping to accusing Mouldy Jeb (he was an easy target), and then commenting on s0ltice's preception on lynch time + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? . He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + and he ignore them altogether. I interpret his motive is to lynch a lurker over an already presented scummy player, and this can hardly be town. Very Suspicious Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy##unvote: Suki##vote: HeavOnEarthI am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed. . He did some good analysis on Heavon and defend himself against suki well, so I feel he is townie right now. Next suki comes to the party + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:58 suki wrote:HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: Show nested quote +also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie.
thoughts? Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. Show nested quote +
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113##vote HeavOnEarth . Suki follows up with some more good analysis on Heavon and I see her also as town. Those three I mentioned above all brought solid analysis and new thoughts on Heavon, so I feel confident in seeing them as town for right now. Then Milton ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth ), roflwaffle ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99
##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. ), and Golden ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. ) all jump on the bandwagon without much new to add (not necessarily scummy in and of itself, there is only so much one can add based on one day's filter). I did notice a really weird thing about roflwaffle's post, though. He's upset that we are going to get too easy of a lynch and said that he knows Heavon is suspicious but thinks it's more worthwhile to attack someone with more influence like me (huh?, I've been under suspicion all day, if anything that makes people look at me more closely, there's no way I'm going to be influential). Also, his suspicion of Heavon up to that point consists of this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 . All of this suspicion came after solstice's case against Heavon and he adds nothing new to it except postulating that he could be an awful townie (we now know that's not true). This makes me suspicious of roflwaffle. This is followed by sciberbia's vote + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote:My thoughts on HeavOnEarth: I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off. First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies. Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"? Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down. Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him. ##Vote HeavOnEarth . He gives some good reasoning for his vote, but I feel it is too late in the bandwagon to say this makes him townie. It could be a mafia finally realizing that his partner is done for and needs to jump on to be less suspicious. I'll leave this as a null read for now. Then austin comes in and votes for me with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote:I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone. See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off. Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ - Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:@Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:00 roflwaffles55 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in. I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 03:24 s0Lstice wrote:On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town. I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that? Not much there. His bit on crossfire is way more robust than his bit on golden or MJ, but still doesn't feel like a whole lot of scumhunting for a day. Again though, I want to wait on him.
That leaves me with cross. ##Vote: Crossfire99What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself. Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today. . Like I mentioned earlier, I think austin's reasoning when related to me gets clouded a little by our last game. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now and hopefully he'll come around, but if he continues this tunneling unnecessarily then I'll have to reconsider. Trackdoor then comes in and votes last with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:52 trackd00r wrote:
I was checking Heaven's filter.
I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia.
I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal.
Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia
As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven.
##Unvote: O.Golden_ne
##Vote: HeavOnEarth . He is now just jumping on the obvious bandwagon. I'll give a null read on this until I can go through his filter. I think that leaves everyone except for me and Heavon. I won't even bother quoting Heavon. He just went with a weak vote on Golden and then got lynched. And I missed the lynch for the reasons stated above. Ok. That's all the time I have for now (I should have gone to bed an hour and a half ago, but whatever). I don't know if I'll be back in time before the night ends to post some more thoughts, so consider this my contribution for now. If I survive the lynch, I'll look into roflwaffle's filter and get a better read on him. I encourage you all to do the same and let me know what you think whether you agree or disagree. First of all, I just want to point out that I think you, Crossfire, missed a couple of my early posts on HeavOnEarth: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 14:10 sciberbia wrote:HeavOnEarthI don't have all that much too analyze with HeavOn Earth, but a couple things look scummy throws suspicion on several easy targets + Show Spoiler +My main problem with him is that he has halfheartedly thrown suspicion onto golden, MJ, and crossfire. All three of these players were rather quiet (at least initially) and relatively easy targets. As s0sltice said, heavOnEarth's actual cases were unimpressive. Here are heavOnEarth's scumhunting posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:...That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- *quotes Golden* Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up ) this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused. check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? And now he becomes wishy/washy + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play
but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point In this post he becomes wishy/washy about his suspicions on MJ and golden. In particular he says "as far as golden im still undecided". What? Before, golden seemed most suspicious to heavOnEarth. Only recently has he become undecided. This is pretty wishy/washy. The only reason I don't see this as super scummy is that he voluntarily adjusted his reads; nobody asked him to clarify them. My suspicions on HeavOnEarth are tempered by some of the boldness in his filter, such as -- saying "it doesn't matter if your suggestions are completely bad" -- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours -- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing Overall, I'd say HeavOnEarth is somewhat suspicious On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote:
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan.
the hour in between my post on suki and my post on crossfire/heavOnEarth
+ Show Spoiler +
was spent writing the post. I just wanted to get some thoughts out there, and split up my posts to make them easier to swallow, much like you did in your splitting up of posts in accusing me.
"soft defense" of HeavOnEarth
+ Show Spoiler +
I think the term "soft defense" is pretty misleading. I listed him as one of the three people I would vote. However, I wasn't too sure about any candidate, and least sure about HeavOnEarth. I listed what I found townie about each candidate as well as what I found scummy. You'll notice that I pointed out one townie line of suki's as well. As to why I read those statements as townie, it's because boldness is generally a townie attribute.
asking s0Lstice about miltonkram
+ Show Spoiler +
I was in the process of thining about who might be mafia if it's not suki, and I was thinking that miltonkram was next most likely after suki.
I saw s0Lstice make a scumhunting post in which he suggested he would be going to bed soon. I really respect s0Lstice's opinion, and I think he is townie. I wanted his honest opinion on miltonkram before he went to sleep. That's all there is to it.
NK analysis+ Show Spoiler +
I really like NK analysis. austinmcc died for a reason, and I want to know what it was. Knowing whether or not the last mafia is a roleblocker could certainly prove useful. And it helps explain why I think austinmcc was killed: he looked blue to mafia.
@alan
+ Show Spoiler +
As s0Lstice pointed out, I've been suspicious of suki all game.
I thinks s0Lstice is townie for his general townie vibe and large contributions to the death of confirmed scum. He was the driving force behind the HeavOnEarth lynch.
I disagree with your read on Golden. I don't think HeavOnEarth's attacks on him look like a bus.
I'm not saying miltonkram is really scummy, but I think it's plausible that he is mafia.
Sorry, my question about 3 NKs was a joke. 3 NKs would be completely overpowered.
My comments on the vigilante situation
+ Show Spoiler +I don't see what I did that is so suspicious or logically fallacious. I'll try to explain more: On June 16 2012 09:16 sciberbia wrote:
@s0lstice
I don't think it makes too much a difference whether vigi claims or not. Vigi will obviously claim if in danger of being lynched, and we will obviously believe them unless there is a cc (in which case it's gg). So the only way vigi can ever get lynched is if it comes down to 3/4 players left and the scum fakeclaims vigi. So I don't think it can possibly hurt for vigi to wait until 5/6 players left before claiming.
I think there is a very slight benefit to vigi not claiming today. The benefit is that scum has fewer good NK options.
Overall, I think it'd be very slightly beneficial for vigi to wait till 5/6 players left before claiming. But it's not at all a big deal, and if vigi judges that the knowledge that they (the vigi) is confirmed is helpful to town, I have no problem with that. This analysis is all under the assumption that there can only be one vigi. Given that assumption, I think it can't hurt for the vigi to wait until 5/6 players left to claim. I don't think anyone had a problem with this post. On June 16 2012 09:57 sciberbia wrote:
crap just realized there could potentially be two vigis. So my previous thoughts about cc'ing vigi and scum fakeclaiming vigi don't fully apply. Still, I think it is most likely that there is only 1 vigi, and I don't think it really matters whether or not he claims today. Here I realize that we could potenially have two vigis, so previous analysis no longer full applies. I don't think anyone could have a problem with this either. Here are my thoughts on thinking that a (potential) second vigi should claim: -- I didn't want it to come down to LYLO and then have scum say "I'm vigi. I shot roflwaffles N1 too." And then not know if he's fakeclaiming -- If scum were going to fakeclaim the second vigi, I think it'd be beneficial to make them do it sooner rather than later. Force them to make the committment now rather than leave their options open -- If we are going to clear alan as confirmed vigi, we need to be sure that there was not some other vigi that shot roflwaffles -- If we do actually have 2 vigis which shot roflwaffles, I see no harm in telling them both to claim Oh, I literally just realized what you're all probably upset about. I didn't want a one-shot vigi to claim before using his shot. I was just assuming in my mind that if we had 2 vigis, they both would have shot roflwaffles. I see now what you all found so suspicious. Of course a one-shot vigi should not claim before using their shot.Let me know if this is stil unclear.
Anyway, I'm going to be afk for about 2 hours. Let me know if you're unsatisfied with anything.
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yea good idea.
I've only read through it once and I have to go in like 5 minutes so here are some brief thoughts:
The mod warning on unforgiven seems like good evidence. I originally thought the replacement of MJ was evidence in his favor, because one of the mods said "he will be modkilled/replaced(probably replaced)" and I didn't think the mods would even consider modkilling a mafia. But you're right, I think we should have expected a modkill (or at least replacement) on unforgiven if he was town.
I'm not buying into your filter analysis on MJ too much just because of the really small sample size.
On Unforgiven though, I could definitely seem him doing some intentional lurking as mafia. I also really like how the kill of austinmcc would fit with him. Maybe he asked for opinions on austinmcc to see if anyone thought he was scummy before killing him?
I forgot about the mafia coaching. I think it's much less likely that the two confirmed scum would make the comments they did on MJ if they listened to mafia coach. I have been thinking to myself that of all the mafia to bus D1, MJ would be a great choice.
Overall, I think your case has merit, but I'm not as convinced as you are. Right now my list of 3 would be suki/unforgiven/miltonkram. If I'm alive tomorrow I'll think about it more, but I really have to go atm.
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a bunch of random things:
@alan
I think the matter of if/when cops and jailkeepers should out is subject to their judgement. A lot of it depends on who their innocents are, how many innocents they have, and how likely they think they themselves are to be NK'd. But you're suggestions seem reasonable.
@cop
Don't you dare let us lynch you without claiming your checks.
@jailkeeper
I only recently realized that jailkeeper can prevent kills by jailkeeping the last mafia. So, the person you jailkept N2 is confirmed townie, and the person you jailkept N1 is likely townie. Make sure to read zelblade's post explaining it and PM a coach or the hosts if you don't fully understand the rules. I didn't know about the ability to block kills, and this is quite important. The jailkeeper functions as combination of medic and cop now. Also, don't you dare let us lynch you without claiming your night actions
@everyone
check your PMs Strongly consider claiming a RB if you were RB'd. The only downside to claiming is the risk of exposing a jailkeeper.
@golden
Is it just me or are you claiming scum with this quote? Sorry if you've already addressed this somewhere.
On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Looks like i'm going to have to do a little defence before the end of this day
I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch.
I'll be doing some thinking about lynch candidates and I'll post my thoughts before sleeping. I want to hear some opinions on unforgiven.
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Here are my reads:
alan is confirmed vigilante.
crossfire is surely town. Both confirmed scum tried damn hard to get him lynched. Also, he calls out roflwaffles early in N1.
golden is almost surely town. HeavOnEarth spent most of D1 attacking him, and I really can't see an inexperienced/unconfident scum taking that route.
i think miltonkram is probably town+ Show Spoiler +
I still think it's possible that he is mafia only because there is no extremely strong evidence to the contrary. But it's unlikely. First of all, his attack on HeavOnEarth D1 has to be counted in his favor. He made some solid contributions to getting HeavOnEarth lynched. Next, it also seems out of character for him to NK austinmcc. I'd really have expected him to NK me or s0Lstice. Finally, his whole filter has a pretty townie vibe.
So, I think miltonkram is probably town
I'm leaning town on suki+ Show Spoiler +I made a case on her during D2 and here is what I listed as suspicious about her: -- her first case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it -- her stances on alan -- her stances on MJ and crossfire -- scummy defense of HeavOnEarth -- one of her comments on me -- accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was more suspicious I still think this is all suspicious. On D1, she contributed toward a possible mislynch of alan or trackd00r, didn't do anything on the cases of MJ or crossfire, and delayed more than anything the correct lynch of HeavOnEarth. However, I'm getting the same feeling with her as I did before we mislynched trackd00r. That while there is a lot of circumstancial evidence aginst her, there isn't any truly conclusive evidence, and it's possible she is just a victim of circumstance. In my mind, there are a few really good pieces of evidence that suki is town: NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +
I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1.
She would need to get mislynches on people seen as scummier than her. And austinmcc could potentially have been subject to a mislynch. I truly feel that suki would have NK'd s0Lstice, myself, miltonkram, or alan.
Finally, suki has been very active this entire game, and I'm sure that if she were mafia, she'd be active in the mafia QT as well. I don't think she'd have the mods panicking that she wouldn't get the NK in. So I think the whole NK of austinmcc is very good evidence in favor of suki being town.
refusal to give up and general townie vibe + Show Spoiler +
At several points over the last couple days, suki has looked sure to be next on the lynch list. Especially when myself and s0Lstice were both attacking her as the number 1 target. Yet she has if anything grown more active. I don't think she'd be putting such an effort into the game if she knew it was pretty much over. Also, the language of her posts have read as increasingly townie to me throughout the game. I don't think she'd come off as this townie to me if she were mafia.
So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki
I think unforgiven_ve is very likely mafia
+ Show Spoiler +the NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +In case you guys haven't noticed by now, I really like to analyze NKs. Especially when we are down to 1 mafia calling all the shiots The thing I like most about this case is that the NK of austinmcc really fits here. I honestly would have expected unforgiven to NK miltonkram or s0Lsice, but it wouldn't be out of character for him to completely ignore the mafia QT and NK austinmcc. He is very sure of himself. He also tried to get some opinions on austinmcc during N1: On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
On June 16 2012 05:57 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
to sciberbia and s0lstice, you guys being very good analyst and posters. i want you please read austincc's filter, be in his place, he is(should be) pretty confident about his posting skills, the avoiding of the Heaven issue, he kept his vote on crossfire and relys on his defense/persuassive skills.
On June 16 2012 06:04 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
ebwop: i want to point out im not making a conclusive acussation on austin, i just want you guys to analize a little how he is playing.
It makes a lot of sense for mafia to try to gauge the town's opinion on a target before NK'ing him. If there is a lot of suspicion towards austinmcc, unforgiven surely wouldn't want to kill him. s0Lstice said that his "cursory opinion was that austinmcc was town" and I didn't comment until the very end of the night (also with a townie read). So it makes sense that unforgiven would then shoot austinmcc (looks green to s0Lstice; nobody else jumped on the oppurtunity to attack austin; presumably looked blue to unforgiven) Look at what unforgiven says. He puts austinmcc in his top two, explicitly asks for the opinions of influential townies, and then pointing out that his accusation is not conclusive, but he just wants to see our analysis. Makes perfect sense if he is considering NK'ing austinmcc. Another thing that fits with this theory: On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
We still have 6 more hours till night ends right? Looks like he is holding off on the NK and just wants to make sure he doesn't miss the deadline. Finally, the scrambling of the mods to get all the night actions makes a lot of sense for unforgiven. He doesn't do a lot of communicating, in thread or out. I'm not sure he'd even have went to the mafia QT after replacing MJ. And he was busy/lurky all night. AND it looks like he was waiting until the last second to decide if austinmcc was a good NK. Extreme lurkiness + Show Spoiler +
I am generally a bit soft on lurkers. But, all the active players are giving me a pretty good townie vibe. This is when it really makes sense to lynch a lurker. Lynch somebody who hasn't been working hard to earn your trust all game with contributions to town. Lynch someone whose filter is so small, you can't tell whether their posts are scummy or not. 6 out of 7 of the remaining players have given town many, many posts to analyze for possible scummy play. But none of them look particularly scummy. So you lynch the 1 guy that has refused to give you anything to analyze. MJ/unforgiven.
Also, I could totally see both MJ and unforgiven intentionally lurking. MJ has lurked as townie in past and been mislynched for it. So maybe he thought he'd lurk again in the hopes we'd assume he's town. And if unforgiven were mafia, I could see him
a) not wanting to put much effort into a game where he is outnumbered 8 to 1
b) making the decision to try to lurk for a win
Not getting modkilled + Show Spoiler +
I think this is some decent evidence against him. His situation was different than crossfire's. He didn't show much interest in actually playing. If he were townie, I suspect he would be modkilled.
D1 bussing with MJ + Show Spoiler +I think s0Lstice covered this pretty well. The bussing of MJ on D1 was pretty weak (and wishy/washy) and didn't make it much more likely that MJ would get lynched. Let's roughly rank some potential buses on how much they actually contributed toward getting their target killed: -- s0Lstice on HeavOnEarth (confirmed not bus) -- alan on HeavOnEarth -- sciberbia on roflwaffles (yes I'm biased ) -- alan on roflwaffles -- sciberbia on HeavOnEarth -- miltonkram on HeavOnEarth -- HeavOnEarth on golden -- roflwaffles on crossfire -- HeavOnEarth on crossfire -- suki on HeavOnEarth -- golden on HeavOnEarth -- crossfire on roflwaffles -- unforgiven on roflwaffles I'm sure I've missed some, and the ranking isn't really important. What's important is the perspective: where do the potential buses of HeavOnEarth/roflwaffles on MJ rank? At the very bottom. Maybe right above unforgiven on roflwaffles. They did not contribute much at all toward actually getting him killed. These buses don't seem nearly as risky as any of the others. HeavOnEarth/roflwaffles didn't have a lot of thread influence to begin with. And their attacks on MJ were hardly committed, as s0Lstice pointed out. So it was wrong of me to clear MJ based on these weak attacks. claiming VT + Show Spoiler +Minor point imo. Here is miltonkram's post on it: On June 19 2012 08:44 Miltonkram wrote:
What purpose is there in claiming VT? If a player is vanilla they should be happy to take a bullet for our blue roles. Claiming vanilla does nothing for town.
What does it do? Firstly, it makes it less suspicious when Unforgiven isn't shot during a night cycle. Secondly, it keeps Unforgiven from committing completely to information. Any actions a VT takes have the built in defense, "but I didn't have complete information."
...
There is absolutely no reason for VT to claim VT. Lynch this guy. s0Lstice thought he was mafia + Show Spoiler +
First of all, s0Lstice is a pretty smart dude. And he was townie. And now he's dead.
s0Lstice wasn't the perfect NK for mafia. He was a likely subject of protection from medic/jailkeeper. Additionally, he didn't look blue at all. Additionally, if unforgiven were hypothetically NOT mafia, having s0Lstice around for D3 would help to push another mislynch. So why did he die?
The NK of s0Lstice makes perfect sense if Unforgiven is mafia. Do you really think unforgiven would be able to avoid getting lynched today if s0Lstice were still in the game? I doubt it.
In conclusion, I think unforgiven is likely the last mafia.
##Vote unforgiven_ve
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on Xatalos's post
I saw the original post before it was edited. I think s0Lstice either misinterpreted Xatalos's post or read too much into it. The only thing of interest was that zelblade has been slipping information in the obs QT. But I could definitely see him doing this regardless of who is mafia. So I don't see this as evidence on unforgiven.
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@suki
I'm pretty sure Xatalos's post went something like this:
Hi s0Lstice. I've just been following the game a bit and posting reads in the obs QT. It's a shame I can't post them here because zelblade has been slipping information like crazy.
oh now I see how you may misinterpret it. I'm pretty damn sure that Xatalos was implying that zelblade was slipping information in the obs QT. Hosts slip information in obs QT's all the time.
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Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post:
1+2) the mods had good reason not to modkill him
3) He wouldn't lurk as mafia again seeing as he did it in the past
4) Claiming VT made sense
5) His read on austin was just a hunch
6) D1 bussing doesn't make sense
7/8) Nothing really new
None of his arguments do much to convince me. He doesn't give any great reasoning for the mod-warning. I don't buy Point 3 -- I could definitely see him lurking as mafia again, especially if he is actually busy. He didn't say anything to convince me that his claiming VT helped town.
And I really don't get his comment on D1 bussing. He says that scum bussing on D1 is ridiculous in a mini newbie game. But then he lists suki as a town read, myself and suki as neutral, and miltonkram as scummy. What? If bussing is really that ridiculous, then everybody should look town to him except suki.
I also dislike his reads. How can crossfire possibly be more suspicious than suki? And he liked crossfire's case on me? Crossfire himself didn't like it, nor did s0Lstice. @Unforgiven I'd be interested to hear what you find suspicious about me. I'd have expected a townie unforgiven to read me as town. Maybe unforgiven just hasn't been reading the thread much, but his reads were great during XV and seem somewhat bad this game.
Finally, the general tone and length of his defense post suggest to me that he is scum.
What I'd expect from a townie unforgiven
-- If he announces that he's going to lurk, he'll lurk regardless of whether or not he is accused
-- If he does pop back into the thread, he'll scold people for being dumb and not provide a lot of reasoning
-- He'd make some good reads and sound confident about them
What I'd expect from a mafia unforgiven
-- Decides to lurk, but then defends himself when accused
-- Make some less than persuasive arguments because his heart isn't really in it. He knows he is wrong.
His defense seems more consistent with a mafia unforgiven.
IN SUMMARY
Unforgiven's defense has done nothing to dissuade me from voting him today.
I was also unimpressed with his case on miltonkram. I'll probably be posting some of my thoughts on it tonight, provided miltonkram doesn't beat me to it.
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I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts:
on backing off of alan+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:58 Miltonkram wrote:
I'm going to back down from my pressure on alan based on this post.
...
It looks like he's a non-native English speaker. I can understand him having difficulty with the language, let alone conveying a tone that pressures other players. If that's the case I would like to hear more of what he has to say. He's shown a willingness to think deeply and consider all possible lines of play that I think may be valuable to the town. By no means am I clearing him of suspicion, but there is a certain townie logic to some of his actions now that I think more about it. I think we have several better lynch targets anyway. I'll outline who I will support for lynch in my next post. I see your point about him possibly trying to gain friends by being a "good samaritan". Honestly, I was surprised at how easily people backed off alan. Here's a quote of myself summarising opinions on alan: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:18 sciberbia wrote:
suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram
not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire
defensive: me
no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth At this point alan looked like a possible lynch target. But then one by one, miltonkram, then s0Lstice, then suki backed off their suspicions. Now at least 2 of these 3 are town. So there must have been something legitamitely townie-looking about alan that made them back off. And seeing as miltonkram was the first to back off a townie, I see this as evidence in his favor if anything.
on being "under the radar"+ Show Spoiler +First of all, if he has never really been pressured, what does that tell you? Everyone reads him as probable townie. Also, while miltonkram may not be the most aggressive player, I think he has done a reasonable amount of pressuring. See his post on suki below. He has done at least as much pressuring as golden, crossfire, MJ/unforgiven. miltonkram pressuring suki + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 18:49 Miltonkram wrote:
Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
In summary, the case on trackd00r is pure crap. Making a controversial statement is not a scumtell. I think suki is trying to cover her scumminess by appearing aggressive without making a good case.
contributions to the HeavOnEarth lynch+ Show Spoiler +
I think he contibuted quite a bit to the lynch of HeavOnEarth. He was third (after s0Lstice then me) to say HeavOnEarth was suspicious and the third/fourth (after s0Lstice, alan, suki) to vote him.
I don't see how miltonkram asking HeavOnEarth to defend himself is evidence against miltonkram. If he was genuinely concerned about the activity of his scumbuddy, he'd post in the mafia QT.
I really don't see what you're saying is scummy here.
his post on roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +
Miltonkram agrees that we should lynch/kill roflwaffles after his death has already been decided. This makes perfect sense as either town or mafia. This certainly isn't evidence in his favor, but I don't see how it's evidence against him.
Accidentally voting HeavOnEarth instead of Unforgiven+ Show Spoiler +
Don't see at all how this is scummy. His subconscious betrayed him? If anything this makes me think he is town and sees both HeavOnEarth and Unforgiven as lurky mafia, so he confused them in his mind.
@Unforgiven
I still think you are likely mafia. But if you die and flip town, I will certainly pay attention to your reads. So I'd like to know if anything I said changes your mind on miltonkram. And if any of your other reads have changed as you've read the thread. Also, I know you've claimed VT, but if you are blue, please claim before we lynch you.
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@alan
If unforgiven doesn't flip red (>_<) and you are seriously interested in lynching me tomorrow, I will post more defense then. For now, I will just comment on a couple of things.
you asked why I changed my mind on suki+ Show Spoiler +I addressed this a good bit in one of my earlier posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 14:12 sciberbia wrote:I'm leaning town on suki+ Show Spoiler +I made a case on her during D2 and here is what I listed as suspicious about her: -- her first case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it -- her stances on alan -- her stances on MJ and crossfire -- scummy defense of HeavOnEarth -- one of her comments on me -- accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was more suspicious I still think this is all suspicious. On D1, she contributed toward a possible mislynch of alan or trackd00r, didn't do anything on the cases of MJ or crossfire, and delayed more than anything the correct lynch of HeavOnEarth. However, I'm getting the same feeling with her as I did before we mislynched trackd00r. That while there is a lot of circumstancial evidence aginst her, there isn't any truly conclusive evidence, and it's possible she is just a victim of circumstance. In my mind, there are a few really good pieces of evidence that suki is town: NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +
I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1.
She would need to get mislynches on people seen as scummier than her. And austinmcc could potentially have been subject to a mislynch. I truly feel that suki would have NK'd s0Lstice, myself, miltonkram, or alan.
Finally, suki has been very active this entire game, and I'm sure that if she were mafia, she'd be active in the mafia QT as well. I don't think she'd have the mods panicking that she wouldn't get the NK in. So I think the whole NK of austinmcc is very good evidence in favor of suki being town.
refusal to give up and general townie vibe + Show Spoiler +
At several points over the last couple days, suki has looked sure to be next on the lynch list. Especially when myself and s0Lstice were both attacking her as the number 1 target. Yet she has if anything grown more active. I don't think she'd be putting such an effort into the game if she knew it was pretty much over. Also, the language of her posts have read as increasingly townie to me throughout the game. I don't think she'd come off as this townie to me if she were mafia.
So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki The NK of austinmcc I have been considering strong evidence in her favor. The more recent things making me lean town on her are a) the existance of a scummier target (unforgiven) b) the language of her posts since D2 (in the face of her own death) have been screaming town to me Here are some examples: On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote:
I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. On June 18 2012 13:06 suki wrote:
I beseech you guys, even if you are 100% sure I am the last mafia, you have to have to have to keep analysing for the last mafia, because I am town and when you lynch me I will bleed green. Don't waste the entire day patting yourselves on the back for catching scum suki cuz you'll be unpleasantly surprised come nightfall =[
On June 18 2012 13:08 suki wrote:
@s0lstice
I don't know. Now that you put it that way, it seems so unlikely. HeavOnEarth doesn't seem like a sophisticated player that would do something like that. Golden also doesn't seem like he'd be around enough to orchestrate that sort of thing.
On June 18 2012 14:05 suki wrote:
Yeah. Welcome to bizarro bus world. You're here already you just don't know it yet
...
It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully.
On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote:
I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
She insists on continuing to analyze even in the face of her own death. This gives me the feeling that she is townie and knows the game will go on after she dies.
on my alleged lack of scumhunting+ Show Spoiler +First of all, you said my defense of you (alan) was bothersome. I really don't see why this should be so. The bandwaggon on you was gathering steam, and you can clearly see it halt and turn around when I start defending you. Here is a similar post on my townie reads from XV: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 05:25 sciberbia wrote:OK I've read through the thread, made some pretty extensive notes on everybody, and formed my own scumreads. I've got a lot to say after not posting for so long, so I'll spoiler everything. On Cattivik + Show Spoiler +
I'm providing my opinions of cattivik for two reasons:
1) He has been accused by enough people now (heist, golden, eishi_ki, suki, miltonkram) that he is in danger of being lynched today
2) heist explicitly asked for my opinion on cattivik
I think Cattivik is most likely townie
The fishiest thing about him seems to be his insistance that I am a 'confirmed townie'. Let's go through the scenarios here from your guys' persperctive. What seems most likely?
1) Cattivik is mafia. I am town. He goes way out of his way to defend me to gain an ally.
2) Cattivik is mafia. I am mafia. He defends me to the death.
3) Cattivik is town. I am town/mafia. He has a strong town-read on me and isn't afraid to share it.
Now I know for a fact that I am town, so I can rule out scenario 2. But I think even you guys should be able to conclude that scenario 3 is most likely. Both scenarios 1 & 2 seem like really bizarre, risky mafia play. Mafia can suck up to active townies and/or defend fellow mafia without being so blatantly obvious about it. Scenario 3 seems like typical brazen townie play. He is also very agressive and seems confident. Townie characteristics.
One last thing in his favor: Judging from his early posts I didn't get the feeling that he really understood my NL logic. If he were a mafia defending a townie, I think he'd at least want to have a solid grasp on what I was saying.
Now I'm not going to say he's a 'confirmed townie' but I think he is most likely town, and I would not vote for him given current evidence.
On a related topic, unless you think someone is in danger of being mislynched, please try to avoid talking about how townie you think they are. If we all agree player X is town, and we are right, we just gave mafia a really easy kill for the night.
One last thing. Did Cattivik really just change his name to Vivax? Seriously?
On Unforgiven + Show Spoiler +
Xalatos, s0sltice, golden, suki, and miltonkram(?) all find him suspicious. I'm not sold on the case against him. He has promised a defense and I don't want to do all his defending for him so I will try to be brief.
Firstly, I disagree with Xalatos and heist that he only made safe generalizations in his first few posts. I see where you are coming from because he hasn't actually made any reads yet, but he did say a couple of odd things that have earned him some flak, such as his suggestion not to use past games as a guide and his idea about a 'town leader'.
His triple post within the span of 14 minutes caught my attention. I think that scum generally take longer to construct posts for several reasons: being nervous about making a slip, making sure it sounds townie, running it by their scumbuddies, etc. Especially on his first posts of the game. Obvioulsy not solid evidence, but I think it's in his favor.
This is a newbie game. Just because you don't think he's helping town doesn't mean that he doesn't think he's helping town... Hope that made sense.
As long as he can convince me that HE thinks that he's helping town, I see no reason why he should be mafia. I'll be interested to hear his defense.
As of right now, I consider him more suspicious than Cattivik, but I don't see any really good evidence that he is mafia.
I was planning on posting my own scumreads in this post, but I've been staring at this thread for hours now and am gonna take a break. I think it's long enough already anyways. I'll make cases against my own scumreads within the next 8 hours. Note that this post was before I had actually accused anyone, much like this game. Now, I agree that this game's D1 was not my best D1. But it wasn't bad either. I correctly defended on alan, and put at least 1 mafia on my list of 3 most suspicious. I didn't make as direct an accusation this game because I wasn't as sure on any candidate as I was in previous games. HeavOnEarth didn't look especially scummy until after he started bandwaggoning with me on crossfire. roflwaffles didn't look scummy until the last couple posts of D1. And hell, we still don't know who the third mafia is, so I don't think you should hold it against me for not figuring it out in 24 hours. s0Lstice had the same opinion mid-D1, that nobody looked as scummy as in previous games. I agree that my actions aren't impossible for a scum sciberbia. But think about what you'd expect from a townie sciberbia and your expectations should line up pretty well with what I've done (seeing as I am town). As far as contributing to the deaths of the confirmed scum, I think I've done as much as anyone except s0Lstice and arguably alan.
your speculation+ Show Spoiler +
mod's completely randomize role assignments
I'm going to sleep soon. Night.
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@alan
We really do not want golden to be modkilled if he is town. That would likely put us in LYLO if we are wrong about unforgiven. We'd really need him around so we get two more lynches.
@golden
Please vote.
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@suki
FYI, crossfire has voted on unforgiven
@suki, crossfire
Are you guys talking about me? Why does everyone keep calling me s0Lstice?
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On June 21 2012 06:08 Crossfire99 wrote:
I don't think I've been talking about you except for my big post on you during the night phase. I think I've correctly referred to you when I meant you, but I'm not sure what post of mine you're referencing.
Sorry I meant suki and unforgiven. Wasn't directed at you.
I really hope this game's over in an hour x_x I feel like tomorrow's gonna get really ugly if unforgiven flips green, especially if golden gets modkilled
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dammit unforgiven I hate you! You better be mafia >_<
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This sucks so bad. We had better win tomorrow to make up for this. I'm going to start staring at filters. gg unforgiven, but I'm not mafia. Go read the obs QT.
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Sorry guys I fell asleep early last night and I won't have a lot of time to post during night phase. I'll be turning my attention to the game at 6:30 EST today.
@alan
When you read through my filter, please try to see it from a townie perspective. I understand you're suspicious of me, but just try to keep an open mind. I was dead wrong on unforgiven, but so were we all, and other than that I think I've been playing a pretty decent townie game, so just try to look for townie motivation and you'll find it. It's disconcerting to know that our confirmed townie's top suspect is another townie.
I'll be doing some serious thinking and posting 6 to 12 hours from now. Right now, I'm thinking it has to be between suki and miltonkram, and miltonkram feels more townie overall.
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Thought I might as well make a small post in the unlikely event that I get NK'd.
I've been reading suki's filter for the last half hour or so. I want to thinks she is mafia, but so much of it, especially since D1, just reads so townie to me. I'm still not decided on her.
Miltonkram feels townie, but I'll be spending more time in his filter later.
Is there a chance the last mafia is golden? Besides the fact that HeavOnEarth attacked him D1, golden's filter also reads townie to me. Too reckless and angry to be mafia.
This is getting really frustrating. How can we figure out the first two scum on D1 and still not have a great read on the third? I'm hoping blues can bail us out after the daypost. If not, I'll be spending several hours reading filters tonight and hopefully end up with a good feeling about someone.
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@zelblade, prplhz
you there? daypost is coming right?
Does anybody else sometimes think that hosts intentionally delay day/night posts and take a cut of the additional advertising revenue? Must've hit F5 at least 100 times by now...
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I really hate these popcorn things :p They always make me think something good's gonna happen. Like unforgiven is mafia or cop just got a red check. Stop getting my hopes up!
who else is spamming F5 lol? Over 300 more thread views since I started watching it..
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gg alan133
hmm I'm actually kinda surprised by the NK.
Eveyone check your PMs
And if cop has a guilty, please put us out of our misery.
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Oh and I also wanted to say this. Even if you're not a cop or don't have a guilty, today is a good day to claim. It's a lot harder to believe you if you claim in a 3-person LYLO.
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@suki
I was expecting crossfire to be NK'd. He is almost as confirmed town as alan, possibly still a blue, and had a correct town read on me as opposed to alan. But yea I don't think the NK of alan is that telling. I'm still mulling it over.
Anyway, I got a little distracted by the NBA finals. Back to reading filters and old mafia QTs of suki and miltonkram now.
@miltonkram
We really need you to start posting. I looked through your filter and you literally haven't posted reads on any of the remaining players in like 6 days.
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@crossfire
crap, didn't think about that. If golden gets modkilled we only have 1 lynch.
Would miltonkram really have NK'd alan
I've been thinking a lot about the NK. How does miltonkram expect to win by NK'ing alan?
First of all, alan was more suspicious of me/suki/golden than he was of miltonkram. If alan was still alive today, miltonkram would have much better prospects of not being lynched. As it stands, suki and crossfire have deemed him suspicious, I have listed him as my #2 target, and golden has no recent reads.
I'd have to expect him to push a lynch on suki, but even then, who would he NK? Surely not crossfire. That would bring it down to me, golden, and miltonkram, and he'd have to expect me to lynch him. And if he NK's me, then he has to rely on crossfire picking to lynch golden over himself. Seems like quite a gamble.
On the other hand, if he had NK'd crossfire
He'd have great prospects of lynching suki today. Then he would just have to NK me and alan would likely lynch golden over miltonkram.
@suki, crossfire
You guys seem to be online now, and I'd like to hear your thoughts on this analysis. Do you really think miltonkram would have expected to survive today after NK'ing alan? And even if he did, do you think he'd like his chances if it comes down to crossfire/golden/miltonkram?
Here is my assemblage of stated reads prior to the the deadline. Please correct me if you see anything wrong.
+ Show Spoiler +
CROSSFIRE
miltonkram: possible mafia
golden: possible mafia
sciberbia: 100% town
suki: probably town
GOLDEN
?????????????????
SCIBERBIA
suki: first choice
miltonrkram: second choice
golden: almost surely town
crossfire: surely town
SUKI
miltonkram: definite mafia
golden/sciberbia/crossfire: town
MILTONKRAM
suki: suspect
golden: suspect
crossfire/sciberbia: town
ALAN
top target: sciberbia
golden: suspicious
suki: not sure
crossfire: town
miltonkram: town
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And consider if suki/golden is mafia. All they have to do is get miltonkram lynched today. Then suki could win by NK'ing me and getting crossfire to lynch golden. And golden could win by NK'ing crossfire and getting me to lynch suki. Doesn't this seem like a safer mafia plan?
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hmm I guess when I put it that way, the last day would become total WIFOM. But it still gives them at least a solid 50/50 assuming they can get miltonkram lynched today.
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look at it this way. there were 6 people alive last night:
3 unlikely to ever be lynched, and therefore sensible NK's over the last two nights: crossfire, alan, me
me: suspicious of suki and milton, not golden
alan: suspicious of suki and golden, not milton
crossfire: suspicious of golden and milton, not suki
So why would miltonkram kill alan first?
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@suki
hang around. I want your response to something. Gimme a few minutes
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@suki
First of all, you say that "with me alive, I lynch you (suki) for sure". Here is my last post on the subject before the deadline:
On June 22 2012 01:05 sciberbia wrote:
I'll be doing some serious thinking and posting 6 to 12 hours from now. Right now, I'm thinking it has to be between suki and miltonkram, and miltonkram feels more townie overall.
This doesn't seem like a "for sure" thing. Also, here were the stated views of live people on suki vs miltonkram before the deadline: + Show Spoiler +
ON SUKI
sciberbia and miltonkram attack
crossfire defends
golden???
ON MILtONKRAM
crossfire and suki attack
sciberbia kinda attacks
golden?????
You really think he'd be confident that I lynch you even with crossfire preferring miltonkram?
And even if it came down to crossfire vs milton vs golden, crossfire's last post on the subject was:
On June 21 2012 01:49 Crossfire99 wrote:
Oh, also if unforgiven flips green, I'm going to guess that either milton or golden are mafia, but i have both of them as pretty much town right now...unforgiven better flip red. lol
I guess it's reasonable to think crossfire would lynch golden there though.
NOW, about the scenario where crossfire dies, you seem to have forgotten that you posted a massive case on miltonkram where you assured us you'd vote for him not an hour after Unforgiven's death. Miltonkram would know that you're going for him and not golden. Clearly golden is not getting lynched there. If you think Milton might expect us to lynch you with alan dead, surely he'd expect us to lynch you with crossfire dead? and not golden.
You realize that you assured a vote on milton early in N3 right? Does that change your analysis at all?
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@miltonkram
what are your thoughts on all this?
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lol good night. sorry. i take too long to make posts
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@miltonkram
wait wait wait. What do you think of suki? You think she is mafia?
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@suki
Your logic makes more sense this time. It's tricky to analyze the 3-person LYLO. I think crossfire is for all practical purposes as confirmed townie as alan was, though, so I don't think crossfire/golden/milton is any better for milton than alan/golden/milton.
you proposed:
kill alan --> lynch suki --> kill sciberbia --> crossfire/golden/milton
I propose:
kill crossfire --> lynch suki --> kill sciberbia --> alan/golden/milton
It basically comes down to this: D5 is gonna be some sort of 50/50 WIFOM no matter who it comes down to. Either alan/crossfire/sciberbia must be alive, and nobody is going to vote one of those 3 IMO (maybe alan votes sciberbia but scum seems to have decided not to go for that).
However, think about D4. It was pretty apparent to me that it'd come down to milton vs suki, since these two seemed to be accusing each other. Crossfire is suspicious of milton but not suki. Alan is suspicious (kinda) of suki but not of milton. Milton has a much better chance of getting suki lynched with alan alive than with crossfire alive. Then he ends up with the 50/50 WIFOM D5, which he would've got anyway.
So, what are possible reasons miltonkram might have killed alan?
-- Didn't really think about it that much
-- Thought about it, but came to a different conclusion than me
-- Was expecting someone to think of all this and therefore not suspect him
None of these seem especially likley. Overall, I really just don't know why he wouldn't kill crossfire over alan. Alan was spewing some suspicion at me/golden/suki but not at miltonkram. Alan said that he did not like my case on miltonkram and found me scummier for it. And crossfire was between golden/miltonkram. And even made a post against miltonkram an hour before the deadline. Also, nobody has shown any willingness to even consider lynching crossfire. And it was still possible that crossfire was jailkeeper or something. An NK on crossfire just makes so much more sense for miltonkram.
Unless someone convinces me otherwise, I'm considering this NK some decent evidence in Miltonkram's favor. But, I really need to spend more time analysing filters. It's now 5AM here and I'm still not sure about suki vs miltonkram vs golden.
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If golden neither posts nor votes today, will he be modkilled, replaced, or what? Please try to decide earlier rather than later.
@GOLDEN
I'd really appreciate if you told us what's up with you. Are you following the thread? Are you planning to vote at the last second again? Or are you interested in discussing about the last mafia?
Also, can you explain this quote?
On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch. While i'm not happy with the case made against me (it doesn't really feel that solid) HeavonEarth jumps on the bandwagon very easily.
I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on this too. Is it just me or does he claim scum hardcore? How can this be a typo? And how drunk would he have to be to slip this as mafia?
@Crossfire
I've gone through your filter one last time and there's no way I'm ever voting for you. So if you're mafia, congrats on the win. But if I'm right about you (which I think I am), and you're right about me (which you are), we can kill 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, and golden. I'm honestly still not sure, but I'm leaning toward suki being mafia. If only milton and golden would contribute more...
I still need to look more at miltonkram and suki. I don't know where all my time went tonight. It is actually past 5 AM. 6:30 PM EST tomorrow I'll be back to the game and make more definitive posts before I sleep. No NBA game to distract me tomorrow.
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I don't have a lot of time to post from work. I'll be online from 6:30PM till whenever. One thing I will add about golden is that he might have killed austinmcc just because golden was really pissed off at him?
I just really don't know. Everyone looks town to me. I'll be online later.
@golden
If you are town, could you please show up?
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OK I've been thinking about this all day, and I've now spent a couple hours reading filters and thinking. I would really like to lynch golden and then suki if golden filps town. Miltonkram is my surest town read of the three. And Crossfire is still out of the question.
I'll post some reasoning later but I'm pretty exhausted right now having not slept much last night. I know Crossfire is supposed to be getting online soon, so I'll just nap for like an hour and check back on the thread.
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Well it seems we are all agreement on lynching golden.
His filter reads kinda townie to me (barring when he claimed scum). I'm not buying too much into the comparison with previous games. Golden seemed generally mad, whether town or mafia. His line about the vigilante was definitely bad advice, not sure if it's scum-motivated though.
But town reads are relative at this point and I'd definitely rather lynch golden than miltonkram. Golden also fits with the NKs more than the other 2, especially for austinmcc and alan. Also, if you are going to consider D1 busses, suki or miltonkram on HeavOnEarth was more of a real (potential) bus than HeavOnEarth on golden. HeavOnEarth even kinda backed off of it of his own accord, which felt odd. Also, the whole thing about his "slip" where mafia is bussing him off and him flipping scum has to be counted against him.
Anyway, I'm not gonna waste too much time trying to convince 3 people already voting golden to vote golden. I really hope he flips scum tomorrow, and I think there's a pretty decent chance.
@Crossfire
If golden flips town, we have to decide whether to lynch suki or miltonkram. I just feel that suki has to be more likely mafia than miltonkram. I'd assume your not convinced of this? We should definitely talk about this during night phase if golden flips town, and maybe even before then since today's lynch is already pretty much decided. I'll probably make a post tomorrow detailing why I think miltonkram is the more likely town.
But for now, today's lynch is pretty much decided so I'm just going to sleep. 8 PM tomorrow can't come fast enough x_x
##Vote O.Golden_ne
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reasons why miltonkram looks really town
Initial suspicions on roflwaffles + Show Spoiler +Miltonkram puts roflwaffles in his top 2 most suspicious about 21 hours into D1: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:
roflwaffles55
I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia:
...
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight.
...
Obviously all these players can't be scum. I'll be looking through the thread more to see what I can do about narrowing down my list of suspicious players. Right now I'm leaning towards roflwaffles and MJ. I'm waiting to see if suki actually defends herself this time around. Not only does he show suspicions on roflwaffles, but his reasoning is actually quite good. roflwaffles did make himself look scared by backing down off his top suspect just because people disagreed with his case. roflowaffles then made 2 posts. One post in which he said miltonkram had "defeated his own arguments" and then this post further pressuring alan: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 07:35 roflwaffles55 wrote:
@alan
Interesting that the first legitimate read that you come up with is a conspiracy between me and suki. Not only is it completely ridiculous, but you second guess it immediately, again leaving your options open so that you can't actually be held accountable for anything. Put yourself on the line, start contributing to the big picture and not just responding emotionally to me, and think logically about what you're going to post.
The biggest thing that keeps irking me about your play is your seeming avoidance of actual decision making, the fact that even when criticizing my play you can't say "I think this is scummy". You go all the way around it and put the possible motivations from both angles.
I would appreciate it if someone other then me looked at alan133's posts and formed their own independent opinion on him.
Then, miltonkram backs off of roflwaffes, because miltonkram sees that roflwaffles is still pressuring alan. Now, this whole back-and-forth does seem like it could be an artificial conversation between two mafia. But, don't you think it would be a bit too obvious? Why does miltonkram back off of roflwaffles if this is a bussing thing? Nobody else showed any suspicions of roflwaffles, so it wasn't like roflwaffles was in any danger. I don't think it makes sense for a scum miltonkram would be backing off so quickly there. Surely he would realize it'd look suspicious if either him or roflwaffles ever died and flipped red. Anyway, I have to consider the whole thing with roflwaffles slight evidence in his favor. If Miltonkram really did bus HeavOnEarth, that means he kinda bussed both scumbuddies on D1. This seems a bit unnecessary and overly ambitious.
His movements on the alan bandwaggon+ Show Spoiler +I think this is really good evidence for miltonkram being town, especially relative to suki. Here is a summary of how the alan bandwaggon rolled on D1 + Show Spoiler +
-- (1) roflwaffles accuses alan hard and votes him
-- suki is not convinced
-- crossfire is not convinced
-- (2) miltonkram puts alan in his top 2
-- trackd00r is not convinced
-- (3) s0Lstice jumps on the bandwaggon
-- (4) suki changes her mind and jumps on the bandwaggon
-- sciberbia defends alan
-- (3) miltonkram backs down from alan
-- golden will reserve judgement
-- austinmcc is not convinced
-- suki continues to attack alan
-- (2) s0Lstice backs off alan
-- (1) suki backs off alan
-- (0) alan shoots roflwaffles and becomes confirmed town
Now miltonkram and roflwaffles being scumbuddies wouldn't make any sense here. roflwaffles brings up a case, two people aren't convinced, and then scumbuddy miltonkram jumps on the scum bandwaggon? What? Highly unlikely. I've read miltonkram's mafia QT from NMM XIV and he really tries not to tie himself to his scumbuddy. Then, after s0Lstice and suki jump on the bandwaggon, miltonkram jumps off, and posts a bit of defense for alan. How does a mafia miltonkram expect alan to get mislynched by behaving like that? I think it's more likely that miltonkram read my defense of alan and liked it. He also looked back through alan's filter, and decided to back off of him. suki's movements on this bandwaggon look far more suspicious. She changes her mind at the worst possible times.
His "bus" on HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler +This has to be counted in his favor. First, look at how he calls out HeavOnEarth twice for lurking: On June 14 2012 06:38 Miltonkram wrote:
Golden + HeavOnEarth
Get in the thread and post more. You guys can start by giving me your opinions on this post.
On June 14 2012 08:05 Miltonkram wrote:
@Crossfire, Golden, and HeavOnEarth
What do you think of these two players and the cases against them? Are there any scummy players you think we're missing? We need more activity out of you guys. Of the three of you, only heaven's put decent pressure on anyone and even that is difficult to take seriously because he hasn't followed up on his reads at all. Then, he is third on the HeavOnEarth bandwaggon, after me and s0Lstice. Seeing as HeavOnEarth was s0Lstice's top target, and in my top 3, and s0Lstice and I had a lot of thread influence, it would have been quite risky for a scum miltonkram to add any more fuel to the fire. Does he really want to get the godfather lynched D1? Then miltonkram goes to sleep, wakes up, and reads the thread. s0Lstice is pushing a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan has also voted him. Then miltonkram sensibly puts his vote on HeavOnEarth. All of miltonkram's actions contributed to the HeavOnEarth lynch, so it's certainly good evidence in favor of him being townie. Now what kind of lame-ass bus would these posts be? Miltonkram's pre-lynch nervousness has been held against him. At first, I saw it that way too. But if you really think about it, I think it's good evidence in his favor. On June 15 2012 05:33 Miltonkram wrote:
Ok it's time we start consolidating lynch candidates. Right now it looks like people are interested in lynching Heaven,Crossfire, and maybe Golden. Am I correct? I think those are our realistic lynch candidates at this point. I'd suggest everyone limit their votes to these three players unless you think I'm overlooking something huge. On June 15 2012 05:48 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Heaven
There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time. Look at the thread temperature at that point. s0Lstice has been pushing for a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan, suki, miltonkram, and roflwaffles have all voted HeavOnEarth. sciberbia will surely vote HeavOnEarth. Now if miltonkram is mafia, he sees 5 votes on HeavOnEarth. The bandwaggon against him includes both scum AND s0Lstice/sciberbia. In what fantasy world is HeavOnEarth not getting lynched? If miltonkram is scum, he clearly already resigned himself to the fact that HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, seeing as both he and roflwaffles voted HeavOnEarth. So if miltonkram knows HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, and knows HeavOnEarth will flip scum, what on earth is the point of these 2 posts that don't make him look that great if HeavonEarth flips scum? Wouldn't he do better to look more committed to the lynch?
the NK of austinmcc+ Show Spoiler +
First of all, assuming golden flips VT (or scum), it's pretty obvious that we have no more blues >_<. Which means the last mafia is surely a goon. Having a roleblocker vs a mere vigilante & veteran is ridiculously overpowered. Additionally, nobody has been RB'd all game.
So killing austinmcc without even roleblocking him isn't nearly as much of a boon to mafia. They can't stop him shooting roflwaffles if he is vigi. And shooting a lynchable veteran is a terrible idea.
So I'm quite sure the NK of austinmcc was a suboptimal play. During N1, miltonkram would surely think he has some slim chance of winning the game as mafia, whereas suki would probably know she is dead. So I think suki is more likely to have made a suboptimal NK for the lulz or just some random reason not related to winning the game.
In favor of suki though, she was active all night, whereas miltonkram was gone. Seeing as blues we had both submitted their night actions in a timely manner, the scrambling of the mods was likely done for mafia's benefit. More likely to be because of miltonkram than suki.
Overall, I don't think this is great evidence for either one of them (suki/miltonkram) over the other.
If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy, and here are a couple things in his favor.
His reasoning behind the breadcrumbing comment+ Show Spoiler +I see two possible reasons for his suggestion to get blues to breadcrumb at the end of N1: 1) He is town and thought this was a good idea 2) He is mafia and was desperately trying to find the (nonexistant >_<) cop When I asked him about his reasoning, he made this post" + Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 03:53 Miltonkram wrote:
@ sciberbia
You had been commenting quite a bit on blue role play and I thought I needed to add my two cents. I was trying to figure out ways for us to get enough confirmed town players to make it impossible for scum to win. At first I was thinking about the possibility of confirming two townies if we had a jailkeeper. One would claim they were RB'd and the jailer would show us his/her breadcrumb. I thought of what could go wrong after I posted my advice. What if we had a scum RBer and they breadcrumbed their action and used this to become confirmed town? My mind kind of exploded then.
I was also thinking of confirming town players through a cop, but that would require this game not to be a setup with double godfathers. I find that a distinct possibility (if we have a cop) because I could see prplhz making a setup that is basically a "fuck you" to town players who rely too much on blue roles. Does this make sense? Basically my thoughts were chasing themselves around in circles and I didn't think all the possibilities through when I posted my breadcrumbing comment. I'm hoping everyone ignored it.
This strongly suggests to me that he is town. If a mafia miltonkram got called out on giving town bad advice, I'd expect some decent excuse. But here he shows some really in-depth thinking on the subject from a townie perspective. Reads quite townie to me.
the NK of alan+ Show Spoiler +
I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire.
If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward.
But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki.
I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan.
OK that's about all I've got on miltonkram. The only thing I really don't like about him is that he has been kinda quiet since D1, and only given reads on lynch targets of the day. But he has been quite busy, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He reads strongly town to me.
I'm going to be afk a couple hours, but I'll be here at the deadline tonight. Hopefully this whole post was a complete waste of time
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yea hopefully :D
Anyway I'm actually going out to play some tennis now, so I won't be at my computer for the flip. I'll check from my phone though. The anticipation is killing me.
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God this game is driving me mad. Gonna go reread suki's filter again, but I don't see my mind changing. Goddamn it.
Does anyone think we shouldn't be discussing reads tonight? I think we should. Regardless of who is mafia, a universal town-read (me or crossfire) is guaranteed to die.
@crossfire
I think we have some serious decision-making to do tonight. If we can't agree by the dawn, it's gonna be hell analyzing the NK.
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OK yea I really don't see my mind changing. I know I was said this about unforgiven and was wrong, but I am pretty confident that suki is the last mafia.
@suki, @miltonkram
I assume you are most suspicious of each other? Can you let us know where your heads are at?
@crossfire
I feel pretty strongly that we should lynch suki rather than miltonkram tomorrow. I also feel pretty strongly that I'll be depressed for a week if we blow this game. So I'll spend the next 22 hours trying to convince you if I have to. If you don't agree with me by 8PM tomorrow, D5 is gonna be a crapshoot. Whichever one of us is left alive will have to guess whether the mafia would have killed the player accusing them or not. I guess I'll make a post about suki tonight.
@observers
My heart sank when I saw the double popcorn. Sorry about another mislynch, but at least the finish will be really dramatic. Unless crossfire is mafia. That would be extremely lame.
@mods, suki, miltonkram, crossfire
Can we shorten the day phase tomorrow after everyone has made up thier mind? I don't think I could stand waiting another 48 hours. And I feel like we'll all have decided our vote by a few hours into the day.
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oh one other thing that I found townie about miltonkram:
He accidentally voted HeavOnEarth instead of Unforgiven. I see this as evidence in his favor. If he were mafia, he'd subconsciously feel very different about the two players. Perhaps not so much if he is town and thinks Unforgiven is mafia.
I'm in the process of writing some stuff on suki.
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This is mostly for crossfire's benefit.
First of all, please reread previous cases on suki
If I've learned anything this game, it's that for whatever reason, I am better at scumhunting on D1 than post-D1. I think I actually had 2 out of 3 scum on D1 and the third on N1. Here is my first case on suki:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=8#151
Then s0Lstice accused suki during N1. I think s0Lstice actually had all three mafia by N1:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=15#283
My case on suki during D2:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270¤tpage=18#358
Crossfire also made a post on suki D2, but I don't think you need to be reminded of your own case.
I'm not going to restate all the D1 stuff. I think that's been beaten to death. I'll just talk about some other stuff since D1.
Really really bad reads
OK now I grant that the language of suki's filter (especially since D1) reads pretty townie. But in forum games, some people are just good at making their language seem townie. Judging by actions is usually better than judging by langauge. Let's look at what she has actually done in regards to pushing lynches:
+ Show Spoiler +
D1: pushes alan (a townie). defends HeavOnEarth(a mafia). Only votes HeavOnEarth after it likely doesn't matter
D2: pushes trackd00r hard (a townie)
D3: pushes unforgiven hard (a townie)
D4: pushes golden (a townie)
D5: probably pushes miltonkram (a probable townie)
How many times can somebody hurt town and not be mafia? It's no wonder we've mislynched 3 times in a row. We've been letting a a top suspect (suki) lead our lynches.
Everyone who has been NK'd was suspicious of suki+ Show Spoiler +
NK 1: austinmcc is suspicious of suki (maybe less so than golden, but still)]
NK 2: s0Lstice is quite suspicious of suki (but she could also use it to push unforgiven)
NK 3: alan is suspicious of suki. Why did alan not die earlier? He used to think suki was town.
NK 4: probably sciberbia
Everyone else's read on suki vs miltonkram+ Show Spoiler +
Crossfire, I understand you're personal read of suki has been pretty town. Maybe that'll change as you read through filters. But, if there was ever a time to listen to other people's reads, now is probably it. Here are the last thoughts of all known or assumed townies on suki:
austinmcc: suspicious of suki; no comment on milton
s0Lstice: suki 2nd most suspicious; milton reads town
trackd00r: no real comment on either
unforgiven: suki town; miltonkram mafia
alan: unsure on suki; not suspicious of miltonkram
golden: suki suspicious; no comment on miltonkram
sciberbia: suki mafia; miltonkram town
Only unforgiven finds miltonkram more suspicious. And several people are significantly more suspicious of suki than of miltonkram.
A few changes of tone+ Show Spoiler +The tone of suki's posts have changed a bit throughout the game. This is kinda indicative of a mafia because they try to be decietful. Here are some posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:
Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already?
...
BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this:
...
Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open.
##vote trackd00r
On June 16 2012 05:50 suki wrote:
Did not contradict myself. I do not think I blundered.
I did not bounce around. I analysed the game and based on my judgement I focused my attention on the one person I believed was the most scum, and I didn't let off until I was convinced otherwise.
The only evidence against me is from viewing my actions from a biased point of view. I've played a strong town game, and you're trying to spin it like I'm playing a strong mafia game by playing a strong town game.
On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote:
Anyways, hum. I'm a little disappointed.
Firstly, I'm disappointed that nobody's commented on my case against trackd00r. I put a lot of time into it and I don't think my points are easily dismissed.
If find s0lstice's tunneling of me (and lack of comment on my defence) very strange. Maybe not suspicious, but strange.
I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious..
...
Neither s0lstice nor sciberbia (who both pretty much have the same case against me) have given my defence any credit or really even a response. No one except alan has really posted their in-depth thoughts on trackd00r. And trackd00r still hasn't delivered any useful posts in his own defence.
I think I've gone through everything I need/want to say. On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote:
s0lstice, I think you did your job right and that if I really were scum, your pressure on me would be extremely effective. Don't feel bad for pushing me, that's what a good townie should do. Plus you can't be right ALL the time right? haha.
I take it as a huge compliment that you think I'd be up to playing such a risky/advanced level of scum. I have the unique perspective of having a town read on everybody (more or less), including myself, leaving the only likely suspect to be trackd00r. I also feel very strongly about my case on him (hence my disappointment that nobody's really commented on it), and his 'OOPS' post just confirms my suspicions.
@sciberbia
I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. On June 18 2012 12:56 suki wrote:
My outlook on the game post-lynch:
People will be taking a much closer look at me. It's to be expected, after the case that s0lstice and sciberbia brought up. I feel I pushed a good case on trackd00r and its frustrating that he wasn't able to defend himself adequately.
I once again went through all the players in the game. I think I am just going to accept the hard truth that I just blow at analysis.
...
In summary:
I am town. That's my only defence at this point. If you believe me, then I hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden. If you don't believe me, then I still hope you'll take a really close look at alan's case on golden.
Going to bed soon but I'll keep up with the thread and post my thoughts. Just a little too burned out to do any sort of heavy analysis right now. On June 18 2012 15:09 suki wrote:
For those of you suspicious of me, one thing that you should note is that my play style had no fail safe in place when my reads eventually became wrong.
...
I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess. On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote:
I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
On June 21 2012 10:08 suki wrote:
This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind.
hmm I was expecting to find some better quotes. Maybe this section isn't the best evidence. You can decide for yourself.
Clear plan for scum suki on D4+ Show Spoiler +
I already talked about this a bit in my post on miltonkram. If suki is scum, I'd have expected her to have a plan for D4. I think her plan was to get miltonkram lynched by killing alan. And then kill sciberbia and WIFOM her way into getting golden lynched. AND if golden gets modkilled D4/D5, this works out brilliantly for her.
If this is true, I'd have expected her to be very reluctant to back off miltonkram. And this holds true. She makes some pretty faulty analysis on the NK, insisting that it makes sense for miltonkram where it really doesn't.
I could post more, but I think these are the major points. Especially reread the cases on her D1/N1 actions. The alan bandwaggon, faulty trackd00r case, and defense of HeavOnEarth all look scummy. Nothing really looks scummy about miltonkram, so I really think suki is mafia.
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is that you conceding as mafia?
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your laughter unnerves me...
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according to the internets, "bahaha" is an evil laugh.
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well suki, this is definitely a twist. I'm actually going to be playing monobattles for the next couple hours, but I'll post some defense before I go to bed. I already see a couple of points in your case that are really non-points. Also, I'll think about whether your accusation of me changes my stance on you, but I really don't think it does.
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Well, here's my defense of suki's accusation. Sorry if it sounds a bit irritated/impatient - I don't mean to be rude. But the thought of losing this game by getting mislynched on the last day really irritates me.
Accusation that my vote on HeavOnEarth was late+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote:
Yikes only 16 hours until the deadline and I'll be sleeping/working during most of that. I'm really tired and going to sleep now. Won't be super active again until about 1.5 hours before the deadline, but I'll try to keep up with the thread from work.
It is really important that everyone gives their opinions on lynch candidates. If you'd be happy to vote for someone, say so!
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan. Here, I clearly state the three people that I think would make good lynches. I am the second person to deem HeavOnEarth suspicious. I was not overly confident about any of the three, though, as I believe I have said before. Naturally, I don't cast my vote yet. I also explain that I will be at work and not super active until 1.5 hours before the deadline. I work from about 11AM to 6PM EDT on weekdays. If you look throughout this entire game, I'm pretty sure I haven't made any substancial posts from work. Sorry, but I'm busy. I think it makes perfect sense not to cast my vote until I get back from work. On June 15 2012 03:41 sciberbia wrote:
@austinmcc
Sorry but as I've said, I'm busy and won't be able to post much for the next few hours. The thread will have my full attention for the last hour and a half before the deadline, and I'll help organize the lynch.
@all
Crossfire has drawn suspicions of several people, and now he has finally posted both a substantial post and defense. Getting fresh opinions on him is important right now. Please share your opinion on him if you haven't already, and update your opinion if it has changed as a result of his defense. Here I explain that I'm at work and can't really post until I get back. I also ask for opinions on Crossfire. At this point, HeavOnEarth only had one vote (s0Lstice). Crossfire was under some heat from various players, and we needed opinions on him. I didn't have time to really think about his defense from work and make up my own mind, so I didn't post any of my own thoughts on it. The landslide of votes (alan,suki,miltonkram,roflwaffles) happened around 4pm or 5pm. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 07:04 sciberbia wrote:
Lynch Candidates based on everyone's stated convictions
HeavOnEarth
interested in lynching(8): suki, me, s0lstice, roflwaffle, milton, alan, austin, golden
no comment(3): trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Many people want to lynch him and nobody is actually defending him at the moment. There is much less consensus on the other candidates (see below).
Crossfire
interested in lynching(5): me, austin, trackd00r, milton, heavOnEarth
not convinced(4): s0lstice, golden, alan, suki
no comment(2): MJ, roflwaffles
Some people find him suspicious. Others remain unconvinced. I don't think it makes sense to lynch him over HeavOnEarth because some people actually don't find him suspicious.
Mouldy Jeb
The argument for lynching him is extreme lurking and unhelpfulness. I'm not against lynching lurkers if we don't have any good lynch candidates. But in this case we do: most people find HeavOnEarth scummy. In addition, we get little information from MJ's flip, whereas we get quite a bit from heavOnEarth.
golden
I haven't gone through the filter, but I just don't get the feeling that there is enough suspicion on him to warrant a lynch over HeavOnEarth.
IN SUMMARY
HeavOnEarth seems like the consensus lynch target. Personally, I think he has a good chance of flipping red. I'll detail my thoughts on him in a subsequent post. Overall, seems like the sensible player to lynch.
@heavOnEarth
It looks likely that you will be lynched today. Please post a defense and more importantly give as many reads as you can.
@trackd00r, crossfire, MJ
Please post your opinion on HeavOnEarth as soon as possible. It's important that everyone weighs in on the lynch candidates, especially the one that looks most likely to be lynched. I think I left work an hour early that day because I knew we'd need time before the lynch. I spent some time assembling the above post, which makes it pretty clear that HeavOnEarth is the consensus target. I asked for opinions on HeavOnEarth because you always want to hear everyone's opinion on whoever gets lynched before they flip. I also ask HeavOnEarth to give as many reads as he can. This is certainly in town's best interest. Honestly, the main way I was expecting it to help is if he flipped mafia, maybe we could get some information from his "reads". After making this post, I took some time to catch up on posts. I studied through HeavOnEarth's filter. I decided that I thought he was a good lynch, so I stated my reasoning, and voted him. IN CONCLUSION I think my D1 actions were perfectly reasonable. If I had been closely following the thread closely the whole day, I probably would have voted HeavOnEarth sooner. But I think I did a lot to contribute to getting him lynched. First of all, I did a lot to slow the bandwaggon on someone I correctly read as townie (alan). Then, I listed HeavOnEarth as one of the three people I'd like to vote for. Then when I got back from work, I really studied his filter (especially his latest posts) which convinced me he was a good lynch, so I voted him. I don't think the argument of "sciberbia was just trying not to have to bus HeavOnEarth" really makes sense. HeavOnEarth wasn't my primary lynch target. I listed three people I'd be happy lynching. Obviously, we need a majority, and not everyone can have their top pick. Once it became clear that HeavOnEarth was a consensus choice, I voted him as I said I would. It's not like HeavOnEarth was my top target all along and I was just delaying a vote on him for no reason.
My plan was to have my attention drawn away from you (suki) every time?+ Show Spoiler +
I really don't see the merit in that mafia plan. I've never heard of the mafia strategy to consistently find one player suspicious but never lynch them. If I were mafia, I could've just NK'd people like unforgiven, alan, and crossfire, and I really don't think I'd get lynched. It'd come down to something like me/s0Lstice/golden/miltonkram/austinmcc. Do you really see me getting lynched there? The plan of intentionally not lynching a scummy person to save them for the last day just seems kinda random and pointless.
Besides, on both D2 and D4, I would have lynched you if it was all up to me and nobody else gave their opinion.
On D2, I thought the cases agaisnt you (mainly mine and s0Lstice's) were quite good. I voted you. Everybody else voted trackd00r. What do you want me to have done? Shout at everyone else that we should be lynching you? I thought trackd00r also had a good chance at being the last mafia, so I switched my vote to him at the end. I had already made my case against you, and everyone else (s0Lstice included) wanted to lynch trackd00r. I don't see how my actions here are suspicious.
On D3, I made a bad call on unforgiven. I liked s0Lstice's case on him. Sorry - it was just a bad read. Also, I didn't change my opinion on you just based on the NK. As I clearly stated (although you cut it out of the quote), your posting since N1 gave me a very townie feel: not giving up, continuing to scumhunt in the face of your death, etc. I've mentioned this multiple times by now.
On D4, it was very clear to me that we could lynch 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, golden. After a LOT of thinking, I concluded that miltonkram was my surest town read. Honestly, if I had to pick only one person to lynch for the rest of the game, it would probably have been you. But that wasn't the scenario: we get to lynch 2 out of 3. I wanted to lynch you and golden. Nowhere did I say that I found golden more suspicious than suki. I just said I want to lynch golden and then suki if golden flips green. I didn't really find golden that scummy. As I said, everyone looked town to me. But miltonkram looked the most town. I don't know what was to be gained by trying to convince everyone to switch their votes to you.
Now on D5, I find you most suspicious again by process of elimination. I've already detailed my strong town-read on miltonkram. I have never ever thought crossfire was mafia. And there are a few things in your filter that are suspicious, especially D1/N1. So I'm pretty confident that it's you.
Accusation about manipulating NK analysis+ Show Spoiler +
Again, it seems like you are drawing pretty grand conclusions about complicated mafia schemes that are kinda unnecessary. I really don't know why austinmcc died but I certainly wouldn't have NK'd him. And I didn't use his death to push trackd00r. I was pushing you until everyone else voted trackd00r. Go look at how the D2 mislynch went down.
On D3, the fact that s0Lstice died wasn't like the primary point in my suspicions against unforgiven. Go reread my post. It was the last, minor point.
Besides, I probably would have killed alan on D3 if I were mafia. I've kinda had the feeling ever since the trackd00r lynch that we only have a vigi and vet. Look through NMM mafia archives. We're lucky if we have a medic and a bunch of VT's. Personally, I think this is a bit of a rip-off, but that's besides the point. I would probably have killed a confirmed townie that is suspicious of me over a probable townie that is very defensive of me and would push a mislynch on unforgiven the next day. I really don't see why I would have killed s0Lstice over alan.
On D4, my analysis of the NK of alan led to decent evidence in favor of miltonkram. You're saying that I NK'd alan so I had an excuse to defend miltonkram? I didn't use the NK of alan to push golden.
In summary, you're saying that scum sciberbia's plan was to use NK's to push mislynches. But in reality I hardly do that at all. On D2 I push you until literally everyone else votes trackd00r and I just comment that the NK fits better with trackd00r. On D3, the NK was only a small part of my case. And on D4, the death of alan only made me think miltoknram is town.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote:
Isn't it strange how we always seem to have a surefire mafia lynch, but every time we're disappointed? One of the biggest reasons we were so sure of unforgiven and golden was because the NK's didn't make sense if they weren't scum. Well, now we've reached the final stage of the game, and you know what? The lynches still don't make sense if I'm scum or if milton is scum. But sciberbia is willing to discard that to vote for 'the least townie of all the remaining townies'.
I think this is quite an exaggeration. A surefire mafia lynch? I don't know about you, but the only lynch I've felt really good about was unforgiven. You can read my post before we lynch trackd00r where I clearly am not sure he is scum. Also, I don't want to speak for everyone, but I don't think any of us were that sure about golden. The NK's have been generally considered as minor, possibly reliable pieces of evidence, as they should be. You're really overexaggerating the weight we've been putting on NKs. As far as me now being willing to discard the ONE night kill that doesn't make a lot of sense if you (suki) are scum, what would you rather have me do? Vote to NL just because I don't see why any of the remaining players would have killed austinmcc? The NK of austinmcc doesn't make a lot of sense regardless of who the last scum is.
Your accusation of me "flip-flopping" on miltonkram+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote:Isn't it strange how sciberbia's impression of milton flip-flopped throughout the last few days? First, he thought milton didn't look scummy, but couldn't see why he couldn't be scum. Then, he was willing to lynch me followed by milton, who he figured was the most likely to be scum after me. Then, he thinks milton is probably town and targets unforgiven. Then he puts milton as his #1 town read above crossfire When sciberbia stated that milton looked most likely to be scum after me, that was after trackd00r died (D2). Now that we've reached the endgame, he thinks that: Show nested quote +If miltonkram is really scum, he played one hell of a D1. Honestly since D1, he hasn't acted quite as townie, but he seems to have been really busy... Think of this from a scum sciberbia perspective. In the beginning he's keeping his options open to lynch Milton (by pointing out his play could possibly scummy). In the end, he wants to keep Milton on his side by saying Milton is 100% town. He's also put Crossfire as 100% town. Both Milton and Crossfire have a town read on me, but when sciberbia lays out the scenario like this, they have no choice but to reluctantly lynch me. This is really a non-point. I've been pretty consistent about miltonkram. First, I thought he didn't look scummy, but didn't see why he couldn't be scum. Yes. Both you and s0Lstice agreed with me on this. Next, I was willing to lynch you followed by miltonkram. Yes this follows directly from the previous statement. Everyone else looked more definite-town to me than miltonkram. Targetting unforgiven was, as I've said, a bad call. I thought he was mafia but he wasn't. Not really anything else to say here. I never put milton as my #1 town read above crossfire. I said, "Miltonkram is my surest town read of the three. And Crossfire is still out of the question." I don't think I've voiced suspicions on crossfire since D1. I did change my read on miltonkram a bit during D4. As I said, I spent hours reading filters and really thinking hard about miltonkram/suki/golden. This was much more time than I had spent on miltonkram before. I came up with some new really good reasons why he is probably town. Two of these reasons were based on things after my initial thoughts on him, so doesn't it make sense that my read would change? I detailed the reasoning behind my strong town-read of him today. Lastly, how does scum sciberbia benefit from hard-defending miltonkram? I really don't get this. If I was mafia, I wouldn't care which of suki/miltonkram was lynched on the last day. I'd probably just say that I find suki a bit more suspicious. Before this huge accusation of yours, everyone had me as a strong town-read. What does a scum sciberbia have to gain by trying to convince crossfire that miltonkram is town? Really doesn't make sense. The town motivation is clearly much stronger.
Me voting for golden+ Show Spoiler +
I've already talked about this a bit. I wanted to lynch you and golden, as I said. I never said golden was more suspicious. The order of lynching isn't really important. If I was able to convince crossfire to vote suki over miltonkram yesterday, surely I'd be able to do it today too. I really don't see what town lost by lynching golden yesterday. He was a top target of suki/miltonkram/crossfire (i think) and was #2 for me. And he was getting modkilled yesterday. To win the game (assuming suki is mafia), I have to / had to convince crossfire that suki is more suspicious than miltonkram. This remains the case D5.
"Bus" on roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote:
Regarding sciberbia's insta-bus on rofl. I bet he looked at rofl's play and knew that s0lstice and other good players would inevitably pick up on the slips. Rather than let that happen, he decided to take massive town cred for the insta-bus. Note that prior to his incriminating post on rofl, he hadn't even commented on rofl's play at all.
I think it's also telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan. It means if sciberbia put that plan forward to bus rofl, rofl would have happily accepted
This is also quite a non-point. rofl's last two big posts of D1 were really scummy. The one where he voted in particular. The thought actually crossed my mind to suggest dropping HeavOnEarth and just to lynch roflwaffles. But I don't think that was a practical course of action. I already talked about my day D1. After the lynch, I spent a lot of time going through the massive amount of D1 posts and making notes. roflwaffles looked really scummy, so I made a giant case on him. You accuse me of not talking about rofl's play at all prior to that case. Well, he didn't look really scummy until the end of D1, as I've said. I had no reason to comment on his play before that. I'm sure there were several people I didn't comment on D1. Off the top of my head, I don't think I touched on austinmcc, s0Lstice, roflwaffles, miltonkram, MJ, or golden. IIRC, s0Lstice didn't comment on roflwaffle's play D1 either but was also confident roflwaffles was scum. I don't see how this suspicious. Also, "it's quite telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan"? Uhh I really think you are stretching here. If I were mafia and thought bussing roflwaffles was the best option, I don't think I'd need his approval.
you say that I was missing during N1?+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2012 12:42 suki wrote:
Interesting note. If you look at the Day 1 sequence of events, Sciberbia posts his last post 6 hours before the night ends. During those six hours is when the mods were asking for night actions to be turned in. He shows up just barely before the night ends.
In other words, the reasoning that he used through the whole game about Night actions not being turned in until late during the night can also be applied to him, because he wasn't around during the time that the mods were asking for night actions.
Didn't alan say I was really active during N1? So wouldn't that mean that I wouldn't have had the mods worried that scum sciberbia wouldn't submit the NK? I was following the thread from work, as usual. If I was mafia, I could've easily submitted the NK from work. It wasn't like I was completely gone. After work, I played tennis. And I only got back to my home computer half hour before the deadline, as I said in my post. I read through some cases and made a small post with a couple of tentative reads on the off-chance I was NK'd.
Alright, I think I've covered everything. Sorry for the length, but not getting mislynched is pretty important, and it's pretty easy to write pages about things I know to be true.
If anyone wants further explanation on anything, please ask.
@suki
I'd be interested to hear if your opinion on me has changed at all as a result of this post.
As I've been typing this post, I've instinctively felt even more sure that suki is mafia as a result of her accusing me. I'm gonna go take a snack break and objectively think about what her accusation says about her alignment.
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Instictively, suki's accusation of me makes me really sure about her being mafia. First of all, it is yet another "bad read" on her part. Second, I'm really surprised by the confidence in her accusation. It's not just "maybe we should consider the possibility that sciberbia is mafia". She goes from -60 to 60 on me after the mislynch of golden. Also, maybe I'm biased, but a few things in her case seem like exaggerations or just quite a stretch.
But objectively, from the perspective of scum suki, here is the question:
+ Show Spoiler +
what is more likely?
(a) that miltonkram will vote sciberbia over suki
(b) or that crossfire will vote miltonkram over suki
Honestly (b) seems more likely to me . I was expecting scum suki to bank on crossfire not being convinced by me. And then she could either NK me and hope crossfire wouldn't change his mind, or NK crossfire and hope I WIFOM myself into voting miltonkram.
I thought my defense of miltonkram was pretty good, but just yesterday crossfire was suspicious of miltonkram to the point of voting him, and still not suspicious of suki. If I had had to bet, I think I would've bet crossfire would reluctantly agree with me to lynch suki, but I'm really not sure.
So does she really think miltonkram would vote me over her on the last day? Again I may be biased, but I don't think miltonkram would.
So why would scum suki decide to accuse me and NK crossfire rather than accuse miltonkram and randomize the NK between me/crossfire? I guess it's possible that she judged the likeliness of (a) and (b) differently than me.
I just realized something else. She could NK miltonkram tomorrow if crossfire buys into her case on me. So she really only needs to convince EITHER miltonkram OR crossfire to vote me, and she can WIFOM her way to a win.
ACTUALLY, I just realized something else. If nobody buys her case on sciberbia, she can still NK me and (maybe) get crossfire to lynch miltonkram? Hmm but miltonkram surely wouldn't NK me in that situation so I don't think crossfire would buy it. Goddamn this is confusing.
From the perspective of town suki, here is the question:
+ Show Spoiler +
what is more likely:
(a) sciberbia is mafia and suki can convince miltonkram/crossfire to vote him if crossfire/miltonkram dies
(b) miltonkram is mafia and suki can convince crossfire/sciberbia to vote him if sciberbia/crossfire dies
Well, considering that just yesterday she was deadset on lynching miltonkram, and was repeatedly saying how I am surely town, (b) seems more likely. Unless she really, really liked my (her accused scum) defense of miltonkram. (b) just seems more likely. The entire game she has been insisting I am town, but she "liked the idea of miltonkram being mafia". So I'd find this a surprising move from a townie suki as well.
Overall, I think that a townie suki pulling this move is less likely than a scum suki. Read her filter front to back. Does she really think I am mafia all of a sudden? I don't think so.
I think it's more likely that she is mafia and for whatever reason judged that crossfire would vote her in the end, so decided to explore other options. Now she can NK miltonkram or crossfire depending on how they respond to her case. I guess she could also still NK me, but I think crossfire would see that she has to be mafia in that case.
one more thing in favor of suki being mafia+ Show Spoiler +
I meant to say this yesterday: at this point the last scum benefits greatly from lynching anybody besides themself. It is typical of the final scum to throw suspicion on anyone possible. This is not true of townies who only benefit from lynching the one scum. Who has been the most bloodthirsty D4/D5? Suki has been totally down with voting miltonkram, golden, and now me. Miltonkram wasn't too sure about suki/golden on D4, and thinks me and crossfire are town. This was another thing that made me think he is town.
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Just woke up. God this game just never gets any easier, or simpler. Might be a little busy today, but I'll be thinking about this.
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It is now 7:50 and I just saw Crossfire's post on miltonkram. The post below the dashed line is what I had written earlier today and was prepared to post just seconds before the deadline. But all my thinking has been done with the assumption that Crossfire might lynch suki over miltonkram if I am NK'd. I'm not sure if his post changes anything. Don't really have time to think.
If I'm still alive in 10 minutes I'll have more time to think about this. So I'm just going to assume I am NK'd and think about what that means:
Why would scum miltonkram try to throw suspicion at me? Couldn't he have likely won by just counteraccusing suki and NK'ing crossfire? Why would he throw suspicion at me and then NK me? That really doesn't make sense. He'd be better off defending me, accusing suki, and then NK'ing me. Still better, he would just NK crossfire and bank on me voting suki tomorrow.
I still think that if I am NK'd it's a pretty damn good bet that suki is mafia. But I think crossfire will still be the NK. Unless suki read his post, and decided to change her NK to me, banking on the fact that crossfire and her would both vote miltonkram. She'd have to hope that crossfire completely ignores the NK, and blindly goes ahead with his read. Crossfire, if this happens, read the end of NMM XV to see why you shouldn't do that. I think that if I am NK'd, suki essentially claimed scum. Miltonkram would surely not NK me. He'd NK crossfire. Right?
OK out of time. Below is the post that I was planning to make earlier. Now that I've typed this prequel, I don't think crossfire's recent post on miltonkram actually changes a whole lot.
In Summary: If I am NK'd, I'd strongly suggest to crossfire to lynch suki. Miltonkram would quite probably have NK'd crossfire.
oh also @mods
scum isn't allowed to change the NK after the deadline right? Pretty sure thats against the rules. Even if u havent posted the daypost yet.
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I'm expecting crossfire to die tonight because he is a universal townread. But if I'm dead in a minute, I want to strongly suggest to crossfire to lynch suki.
Why would scum suki NK sciberbia?+ Show Spoiler +
Obvious reasons. sciberbia has made it pretty clear he wants to lynch suki on the last day. Crossfire has most recently defended suki and accused miltonkram. Scum suki hopes she can get crossfire to lynch miltonkram with her.
Why would scum miltonkram NK sciberbia?+ Show Spoiler +
I highly doubt that he would. Out of everyone remaining, sciberbia has made it clearest whom he wants to lynch. He wants to lynch suki.
If miltonkram NK's crossfire (the universal town read and expected kill target), miltonkram is very unlikely to get lynched on the last day. Sciberbia has made it clear he would much rather vote suki over miltonkram. And suki has shown some suspicions of sciberbia. The NK of crossfire is very unlikely to sway these opinions.
Basically, if miltonkram is somehow scum, he has a pretty stellar chance at winning by NK'ing crossfire. So if I die instead, I'd be shocked if miltonkram is scum.
Of course, an NK of sciberbia is the only sensible choice for a scum crossfire. But, I think we're all agreed that crossfire is town.
Also, I'd probably expect scum suki or her coach to figure all this out and therefore not NK sciberbia (which would kinda be claiming scum). So if the NK is crossfire, I won't see it as evidence of anything (except that crossfire is town obviously).
Well, for the first time, I'm really hoping to be the target of the NK because I think it would give it away that suki is scum. Hopefully she didn't put that much thought into it.
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@prplhz
Are you still awake? Daypost incoming? I don't want to be spamming F5 for 20 minutes in vein...
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gg guys. This game may not have been good for my health, but it's sure been a blast.
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omg no way! wp miltonkram. ugh we never win >_<
thanks hosts
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Looked really townie to me. idk dude. he played very well. Only scummy thing imo was his being relatively less active.
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Sorry town  I feel like I kinda screwed us over this game. Too many bad reads.
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@crossfire
Not your fault dude. More my fault. If you had been NK'd we would have lynched suki. Lynching suki is the sensible choice for you on the last day.
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On June 27 2012 09:40 EchelonTee wrote:
wat
That's crazy, 2 mafia dead N1 yet town can't win? >< that's the worst feeling...
Yea but it's not as easy as it seems. We had no more help from blues, so with random lynching, it's only like 4/9 chance of town winning. Milton didn't really tie himself to either flipped scum, and our reads just weren't good enough
Edit: 4/9 is definitely too low. I suck at math. probably more like 3/4. So we just had anti-reads
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wow this game even has really good post-game discussion
@milton
l lol'd as I read the mafia QT. You give me way too much credit. I really thought you were town. You could have just shot crossfire lol. But you still pulled off a win. well played. especially D1.
@unforgiven
sorry man, my reads weren't very good this game. I guess the mislynches of you/suki were both kinda my fault. I'll try to keep things simpler in future.
@suki
IMO, it's not good for townies to make "falsely confident" cases, and then back off of them. Kinda falls under Lynch all Liars. But D1 I think you were mostly just a victim of circumstance. You just happened to jump on and off the alan bandwaggon at bad times, and to defend HeavOnEarth when nobody else did. It also would have helped if you had been more strongly defensive of crossfire instead of unsure. Sometimes townies can just look scummy as a result of bad reads. Everyone makes bad reads sometimes (except unforgiven :p). I guess I should have put more weight on your very townie posts after D1.
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@crossfire
I did hold that case on me slightly against you. If you always let things like that slide, I feel like mafia benefits more than town because they can post a case and only back down from it if they don't get support.
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But I think lying can be beneficial in some scenarios for town. You were such a strong town-read anyway that it was unlikely to matter.
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EPT
