EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 4
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@alan When you read through my filter, please try to see it from a townie perspective. I understand you're suspicious of me, but just try to keep an open mind. I was dead wrong on unforgiven, but so were we all, and other than that I think I've been playing a pretty decent townie game, so just try to look for townie motivation and you'll find it. It's disconcerting to know that our confirmed townie's top suspect is another townie. I'll be doing some serious thinking and posting 6 to 12 hours from now. Right now, I'm thinking it has to be between suki and miltonkram, and miltonkram feels more townie overall. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I've been reading suki's filter for the last half hour or so. I want to thinks she is mafia, but so much of it, especially since D1, just reads so townie to me. I'm still not decided on her. Miltonkram feels townie, but I'll be spending more time in his filter later. Is there a chance the last mafia is golden? Besides the fact that HeavOnEarth attacked him D1, golden's filter also reads townie to me. Too reckless and angry to be mafia. This is getting really frustrating. How can we figure out the first two scum on D1 and still not have a great read on the third? I'm hoping blues can bail us out after the daypost. If not, I'll be spending several hours reading filters tonight and hopefully end up with a good feeling about someone. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
you there? daypost is coming right? Does anybody else sometimes think that hosts intentionally delay day/night posts and take a cut of the additional advertising revenue? Must've hit F5 at least 100 times by now... | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
who else is spamming F5 lol? Over 300 more thread views since I started watching it.. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
hmm I'm actually kinda surprised by the NK. Eveyone check your PMs And if cop has a guilty, please put us out of our misery. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I was expecting crossfire to be NK'd. He is almost as confirmed town as alan, possibly still a blue, and had a correct town read on me as opposed to alan. But yea I don't think the NK of alan is that telling. I'm still mulling it over. Anyway, I got a little distracted by the NBA finals. Back to reading filters and old mafia QTs of suki and miltonkram now. @miltonkram We really need you to start posting. I looked through your filter and you literally haven't posted reads on any of the remaining players in like 6 days. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
crap, didn't think about that. If golden gets modkilled we only have 1 lynch. Would miltonkram really have NK'd alan I've been thinking a lot about the NK. How does miltonkram expect to win by NK'ing alan? First of all, alan was more suspicious of me/suki/golden than he was of miltonkram. If alan was still alive today, miltonkram would have much better prospects of not being lynched. As it stands, suki and crossfire have deemed him suspicious, I have listed him as my #2 target, and golden has no recent reads. I'd have to expect him to push a lynch on suki, but even then, who would he NK? Surely not crossfire. That would bring it down to me, golden, and miltonkram, and he'd have to expect me to lynch him. And if he NK's me, then he has to rely on crossfire picking to lynch golden over himself. Seems like quite a gamble. On the other hand, if he had NK'd crossfire He'd have great prospects of lynching suki today. Then he would just have to NK me and alan would likely lynch golden over miltonkram. @suki, crossfire You guys seem to be online now, and I'd like to hear your thoughts on this analysis. Do you really think miltonkram would have expected to survive today after NK'ing alan? And even if he did, do you think he'd like his chances if it comes down to crossfire/golden/miltonkram? Here is my assemblage of stated reads prior to the the deadline. Please correct me if you see anything wrong. + Show Spoiler + CROSSFIRE miltonkram: possible mafia golden: possible mafia sciberbia: 100% town suki: probably town GOLDEN ????????????????? SCIBERBIA suki: first choice miltonrkram: second choice golden: almost surely town crossfire: surely town SUKI miltonkram: definite mafia golden/sciberbia/crossfire: town MILTONKRAM suki: suspect golden: suspect crossfire/sciberbia: town ALAN top target: sciberbia golden: suspicious suki: not sure crossfire: town miltonkram: town | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
3 unlikely to ever be lynched, and therefore sensible NK's over the last two nights: crossfire, alan, me me: suspicious of suki and milton, not golden alan: suspicious of suki and golden, not milton crossfire: suspicious of golden and milton, not suki So why would miltonkram kill alan first? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
hang around. I want your response to something. Gimme a few minutes | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
First of all, you say that "with me alive, I lynch you (suki) for sure". Here is my last post on the subject before the deadline: On June 22 2012 01:05 sciberbia wrote: I'll be doing some serious thinking and posting 6 to 12 hours from now. Right now, I'm thinking it has to be between suki and miltonkram, and miltonkram feels more townie overall. This doesn't seem like a "for sure" thing. Also, here were the stated views of live people on suki vs miltonkram before the deadline: + Show Spoiler + ON SUKI sciberbia and miltonkram attack crossfire defends golden??? ON MILtONKRAM crossfire and suki attack sciberbia kinda attacks golden????? You really think he'd be confident that I lynch you even with crossfire preferring miltonkram? And even if it came down to crossfire vs milton vs golden, crossfire's last post on the subject was: On June 21 2012 01:49 Crossfire99 wrote: Oh, also if unforgiven flips green, I'm going to guess that either milton or golden are mafia, but i have both of them as pretty much town right now...unforgiven better flip red. lol I guess it's reasonable to think crossfire would lynch golden there though. NOW, about the scenario where crossfire dies, you seem to have forgotten that you posted a massive case on miltonkram where you assured us you'd vote for him not an hour after Unforgiven's death. Miltonkram would know that you're going for him and not golden. Clearly golden is not getting lynched there. If you think Milton might expect us to lynch you with alan dead, surely he'd expect us to lynch you with crossfire dead? and not golden. You realize that you assured a vote on milton early in N3 right? Does that change your analysis at all? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
what are your thoughts on all this? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
wait wait wait. What do you think of suki? You think she is mafia? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Your logic makes more sense this time. It's tricky to analyze the 3-person LYLO. I think crossfire is for all practical purposes as confirmed townie as alan was, though, so I don't think crossfire/golden/milton is any better for milton than alan/golden/milton. you proposed: kill alan --> lynch suki --> kill sciberbia --> crossfire/golden/milton I propose: kill crossfire --> lynch suki --> kill sciberbia --> alan/golden/milton It basically comes down to this: D5 is gonna be some sort of 50/50 WIFOM no matter who it comes down to. Either alan/crossfire/sciberbia must be alive, and nobody is going to vote one of those 3 IMO (maybe alan votes sciberbia but scum seems to have decided not to go for that). However, think about D4. It was pretty apparent to me that it'd come down to milton vs suki, since these two seemed to be accusing each other. Crossfire is suspicious of milton but not suki. Alan is suspicious (kinda) of suki but not of milton. Milton has a much better chance of getting suki lynched with alan alive than with crossfire alive. Then he ends up with the 50/50 WIFOM D5, which he would've got anyway. So, what are possible reasons miltonkram might have killed alan? -- Didn't really think about it that much -- Thought about it, but came to a different conclusion than me -- Was expecting someone to think of all this and therefore not suspect him None of these seem especially likley. Overall, I really just don't know why he wouldn't kill crossfire over alan. Alan was spewing some suspicion at me/golden/suki but not at miltonkram. Alan said that he did not like my case on miltonkram and found me scummier for it. And crossfire was between golden/miltonkram. And even made a post against miltonkram an hour before the deadline. Also, nobody has shown any willingness to even consider lynching crossfire. And it was still possible that crossfire was jailkeeper or something. An NK on crossfire just makes so much more sense for miltonkram. Unless someone convinces me otherwise, I'm considering this NK some decent evidence in Miltonkram's favor. But, I really need to spend more time analysing filters. It's now 5AM here and I'm still not sure about suki vs miltonkram vs golden. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@GOLDEN I'd really appreciate if you told us what's up with you. Are you following the thread? Are you planning to vote at the last second again? Or are you interested in discussing about the last mafia? Also, can you explain this quote? On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch. While i'm not happy with the case made against me (it doesn't really feel that solid) HeavonEarth jumps on the bandwagon very easily. I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on this too. Is it just me or does he claim scum hardcore? How can this be a typo? And how drunk would he have to be to slip this as mafia? @Crossfire I've gone through your filter one last time and there's no way I'm ever voting for you. So if you're mafia, congrats on the win. But if I'm right about you (which I think I am), and you're right about me (which you are), we can kill 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, and golden. I'm honestly still not sure, but I'm leaning toward suki being mafia. If only milton and golden would contribute more... I still need to look more at miltonkram and suki. I don't know where all my time went tonight. It is actually past 5 AM. 6:30 PM EST tomorrow I'll be back to the game and make more definitive posts before I sleep. No NBA game to distract me tomorrow. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I just really don't know. Everyone looks town to me. I'll be online later. @golden If you are town, could you please show up? | ||
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