EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 2
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I don't think it makes too much a difference whether vigi claims or not. Vigi will obviously claim if in danger of being lynched, and we will obviously believe them unless there is a cc (in which case it's gg). So the only way vigi can ever get lynched is if it comes down to 3/4 players left and the scum fakeclaims vigi. So I don't think it can possibly hurt for vigi to wait until 5/6 players left before claiming. I think there is a very slight benefit to vigi not claiming today. The benefit is that scum has fewer good NK options. Overall, I think it'd be very slightly beneficial for vigi to wait till 5/6 players left before claiming. But it's not at all a big deal, and if vigi judges that the knowledge that they (the vigi) is confirmed is helpful to town, I have no problem with that. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
still haven't read actually read the daypost lol but I guess I'll go back and read it as it's gotten good reviews and yea NK of austin is quite odd. I'll have to think about this a bit.. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@alan I really wouldn't be suspicious of s0Lstice just for suggesting that the vigi claim. As he explained, it really isn't that big of a deal. thoughts on NK (or lack thereof) + Show Spoiler + I've been trying, but I can't think of any likely explanation for the mafia's choice to NK austinmcc. So I'm pretty much just going to disregard the NK. @s0Lstice as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice some suspicions against suki yesterday. But I don't think that is really indicative of anything anyway. check your PM's to see if you were RB'd + Show Spoiler + If you were RB'd and you don't think you were a target of the jailkeeper (not a top 2 or 3 NK candidate) you should claim it now. No reason to wait in claiming this. And it tells us that the last mafia is a roleblocker (assuming you're telling the truth) I'm going to sleep now. I'll be going over filters and doing analysis during the day tomorrow. You can expect some posts from me on lynch candidates within 18 to 24 hours. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
First of all, alan has claimed vigilante. if anybody else is vigilante, you should claim NOW. @s0Lstice I do not like your plan. It completely disregards night actions and also prevents us from making better reads based on what people post. There's a pretty decent chance we have a cop, and we surely have at least 1 power role. I think we'd have a good chance to win with your plan, but it's not guaranteed. It's the lazy way to go, and we have an even better chance to win by continuing discussion, making reads, and getting information from night actions. Also, why are you so suspicious of unforgiven/MJ? I'm going to start looking at the cases on trackd00r, golden, and suki. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I don't see any advantage to making the list "non-negotiable" except for ending the game faster, which isn't listed anywhere as part of our win condition. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now. about the plan I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not. I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads. @alan I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia.. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Here are some things I find suspicious about her: her fist case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it+ Show Spoiler + This has been covered already by both me and s0Lstice so I'm not going to say anything more about it here. I've found this suspicious from the start. her stances on alan+ Show Spoiler + Initially, she defends alan from the confirmed scum roflwaffles. Fine. Here were the stances on alan when suki completely changed her mind on him: aggressive: roflwaffle, miltonkram, s0Lstice defensive: crossfire, sciberbia, trackdoor, suki alan is now confirmed vigilante. Suki changing her mind here is pretty suspicious. She originally defended alan from roflwaffe. But after miltonkram and s0Lstice, two influential townies, jump on board against alan, suki changes her stance. With suki, miltonkram, s0Lstice, and roflwaffle against alan, he stood a chance of being mislynched. suki's plan to get alan mislynced seems to have backfied when s0Lstice and miltonkram hop off the alan train, leaving her and confirmed scum roflwaffles as the only passengenrs. Naturally, she eventually hops off the train as well. Note that it only took her 1 post of alan, and an hour and 4 minutes, to do a complete 180 on him. her stances on MJ and crossfire+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 13:21 suki wrote: Regarding Mouldyjeb, I agree that he is confusing, however his filter is also quite short. His words definitely are not pro-town, but in my opinion they aren't inherently scummy either, it could just as easily be poor town play. MJ was probably the easiest lynch yesterday. Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffles put pressure on MJ, so it makes sense that the third scum wouldn't do the same thing. But of course she wouldn't want to be defensive of MJ either, so she could leave open the option of voting him. + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote: Crossfire99: I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same. In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone. In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game. In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much. Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not. Crossfire also stood a danger of being mislynched D1, and both confirmed scum pushed for a crossfire lynch. So it also makes sense that the third scum wouldn't want to be on that same bandwaggon. Suki kinda defends crossfire, but concludes that she is not sure. This makes sense for a mafia: softly defend someone who will be mislynched, but leave yourself the option of voting him. scummy defense of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote: About HeavOnEarth: HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward. While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision. First of all, she only comments on HeavOnEarth after being explicitly asked by s0Lstice. Then she kinda soft defends him and delays making a decision. Here were the stances on HeavOnEarth when she finally decides to bus him: - aggressive: s0Lstice, sciberbia, miltonkram, alan, roflwaffles (kinda) - defensive: austinmcc She could certainly see the writing on the wall by that point. And she also starts to accuse him around the same time that roflwaffles decides to bus him. one of her comments on me+ Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:38 suki wrote: I'm confused why sciberbia would be so suspicious of me. Perhaps its bias from the previous game when I was mafia, but I don't feel I've been playing in a scummy way. This quote struck me as odd. I'd have expected a town suki to be suspicious of me for accusing her. But instead she makes an excuse for my "bad read". Minor thing. accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was clearly more suspicious to everyone else+ Show Spoiler + Everybody else was super suspicious of roflwaffles. But she made a big case against trackd00r instead. It's possible she just made a bad read, but this is another minor point against her. She only accuses roflwaffles after the following list of people want his blood: miltonkram, alan, sciberbia, s0lstice, crossfire. Looks like another bus. I haven't gone through the cases on trackd00r or golden yet, but I think its pretty likely suki is the last mafia, so ##Vote suki | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Sorry, I realize that point was not clear. I was pointing out that roflwaffles (not trackd00r) was the most scummy candidate and indeed is confirmed scum. If you were townie, I'd expect you to find roflwaffles more scummy than trackd00r. It's a minor point against you that you didn't find roflwaffles super scummy until everybody else did. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
on ignoring your defense+ Show Spoiler + I understand it's frustrating when people ignore a defense post that you spent a lot of time on, but I never set much store by a suspect's explanation of their actions. If you are mafia, you will construct plausible townie explanations for your actions. If you are town, you will give the plausible townie explanations for your actions. I find it very hard to distinguish between a scummy explanation and a townie explanation. I agree that there exists a plausible townie explanation for your actions, and I'm not surprised that you were able to provide it (whether you are town or mafia). For what it's worth, you will have at least made me feel really bad if I'm wrong about you. why I am suspicious of you+ Show Spoiler + On June 17 2012 11:03 suki wrote: I feel that I've been upfront for this whole game. I've stated my suspicions boldly, presented my cases clearly. I've been wrong, about alan and about HeavOn (the so called 'scummy' defense of HeavOn) but that's not a scummy thing in itself. I'm being targeted because I haven't been scared of making mistakes, of calling people out, of changing my vote to who I think is the most scummy. I spend a lot of time on analysing the person I think is most suspicious rather than making shallow analysis on everyone who I think could be suspicious.. You are not being targetted because you have been bold, upfront, and not scared of making mistakes. Of the 9 players alive, you and trackd00r have the unique combination of a) not being attacked by either of the 2 confirmed scum b) not contributing much to the death of our 2 confirmed scum Also neither of you have c) contributed much towards stopping mislynches Of the two of you, you have done more toward pushing mislynches (you pushed alan and were neutral on MJ; trackd00r defended alan and was slightly defensive of MJ) and done less toward contributing to the successful lynch (you defend HeavOnEarth at first;trackd00r doesn't comment). So I find you more suspicious. I'll probably comment on the case against trackd00r at some point tonight. If not, tomorrow. If you are actually town, you can at least find solace in the fact that trackd00r is very unlikley to survive to the end of this game if he is scum. My suspicions toward you are a result of finding the most likely explanation. Either a,b, and c above are true because you are mafia, or they are true because you have had some bad luck and bad reads. I think the more likely explanation is the former. @miltonkram on suki's vote+ Show Spoiler + I agree it'd take some guts for both mafia to commit to a HeavOnEarth bus, but I think suki would be up to it. I think their planned mislynch (alan) was clearly not coming to fruition. I think we pretty clearly would have lynched HeavOnEarth even without their help. Who else would we have lynched? Crossfire is the only person other person who stood any chance of being lynched, and I just don't think that was going to happen. Again, here are the stances on HeavOnEarth just before you, suki, and roflwaffles voted him: s0Lstice - top target sciberbia - one of top 3 miltonkram - one of top 3 austinmcc - HeavOnEarth looks bad, but prefers other targets alan - top target roflwaffles - thinks he is suspicious suki - soft defended I agree that trackd00r looks bad for his whole lack of D1 opinion on HeavOnEarth. I'd probably push to lynch him next if suki flips town. But I find the case against suki pretty good. I'll post on trackd00r sometime in the next 24 hours for sure. A couple of things in suki's favor+ Show Spoiler + suki's posts have made me feel so potentially guilty for being wrong about her, I've looked for things in her favor. Since early D1, I have been getting more of a townie vibe from her posts. Still, she made a pretty good defense last game, so I think she'd be up to giving off a townie vibe as mafia. Another thing - I think suki would have conceded by now if she was mafia. But maybe not. Minor point in her favor. I only just thought about the NK again. I really don't see suki making the NK of austinmcc. Does not seem in character at all. Only thing I can think of is that austinmcc voiced suspicions of suki D1 and was defensive of trackd00r. Still, really don't see it. I'd have expected her to kill someone like me or miltonkram (not s0Lstice for fear of medic save). You know who seems more likely to have NK'd austinmcc? trackd00r I don't have that strong a feel for trackd00r's personality or playstyle, so I wouldn't be as surprised that the NK was austin as I would be if suki was mafia. Also, if you look at the blue text during N1, the mods kept asking for night actions. I think it's likely that this is because the mafia didn't send in their kill yet. roflwaffles was MIA the entire night. suki was pretty active throughout the night, and trackd00r only came back at the end. So one likely explanation for the mods asking for night actions is that both remaining mafia were afk for most of the night phase, and the mods were worried that they wouldn't send in an NK. Maybe trackd00r only sent in the kill at the end. Is alan allowed to tell us what time he submitted his night action and if he submitted it to both hosts? In summary -- suki and trackd00r are in my tier of top suspicion -- I find suki more suspicious based on posts -- I just realized that the whole NK business suggests trackd00r is mafia rather than suki -- I'll study track00r more over the next 24 hours and post more thoughts -- I think we will probably end up lynching both of them anyway (assuming we don't win today), so it's hardly likely to matter. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
a) were not attacked by a confirmed scum b) did not contribute much to the death of confimed scum Honestly, suki still looks more suspicious to me based on D1 and N1. Here are a couple points in trackd00r's favor challenges me & s0Lstice early on+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 12:04 trackd00r wrote: s0lstice: Is it my idea or you already gained trust from Sciberbia? I'm off to bed now. Can't do much atm. Will be back in 8 hours ~ Minor thing. Takes some guts as mafia to question influential townies. was actually more defensive of MJ than most people+ Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 03:44 trackd00r wrote: First of all, sorry for my bad English. I'll try to check my grammar before posting. Mouldy Jeb's play is confusing as hell. Not only his posts have no real town content, but the way he writes them makes me feel I'm looking at a completely different game. Anyways, I can't tell if this is scum play or just plain bad town play. Since he stated that in his last game he got lynched D1, the latter option is what I'm taking at the moment. @Mouldy: What do you think of last miltonkram post? Do you keep your stance on him? suki stated in her case that he was at first aggressive toward MJ, but later backed off. It looks to me like he is slightly defensive of MJ, moreso than most people. I would not expect the mafia to do any defending of MJ on D1. directly addressed roflwaffles on alan + Show Spoiler + trackd00r made a kinda weird post where he addressed roflwaffles and stated that the case on alan isn't going anywhere. Another minor point in his favor: from what I've seen, newbie scum rarely address each other in the thread on D1. Obviously, he is still pretty suspicious for pushing the wrong people (golden & crossfire) and also not talking about HeavOnEarth until the last minute. Since the NK of austinmcc, trackd00r has started to look a lot worse relative to suki. I already talked about how the mod's blue text suggests to me that the mafia hadn't submitted their NK. And I think this would be more likely due to trackd00r than suki. Also, suki has been very active and I just don't see why she would be putting in all this effort if she is scum. Maybe just to make us do 1 more mislynch? On the other hand, trackd00r has been pretty quiet since the day post. In summary I don't feel overly confident about either of suki's or trackd00r's cases individually. But they are definitely top 2 candidates on my list and I think both have a decent chance of being the last scum. I'm honestly not sure which I think is more likely the last mafia, but it seems suki has at least guilted us into lynching trackd00r first so... ##unvote ##Vote trackd00r | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@trackd00r IF YOU ARE A BLUE, CLAIM NOW! | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I guess you're probably right about suki. Her behavior would be rather odd if she is mafia. I just feel weird basing analysis off reasoning such as why the last scum hasn't given up by now. I mean scum technically shouldn't ever concede or give up, just to keep us honest, so we can't pull analysis like this in future. Maybe I'm just being dumb, but I don't really get why the OOPS post is such a scumslip. Maybe trackd00r found suki third most suspicious, so he put her name on the list. But then he decided he didn't want to do analysis on her, so decided not to put her on the list, and for whatever reason didn't edit it out correctly before hitting submit. If he is scum, he surely could have concocted a better lie than OOPS. And as he pointed out, the two "ands" in that sentence suggest that he was trying to only put two people. Anyway, I just don't see any really great evidence that trackd00r is scum. He made some bad reads and not the best cases. But that can happen to townies too. I'm just not as convinced about him as I was about heist last game or roflwaffles this game. I think he only looks as scummy as he does by process of elimination, so I'm a little worried that we're wrong. But hopefully I'm just being a pessimist/skeptic and we'll all be celebrating a win in 5 hours. So cheers to that. just to reiterate @trackd00r CLAIM IF YOU ARE BLUE | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Will trackd00r be modkilled or replaced if he does not vote? Same question for unforgiven. Is anybody else a) in the thread? b) thinking it'd be a good idea to switch our lynch to suki if the hosts guarantee a modkill on trackd00r? I doubt we'll have enough people here to pull that off anyway, but can't hurt to ask. @trackd00r If you are looking at this thread, please speak up now. And claim if you are blue. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'll post more later. For now, what are your opinions on miltonkram? | ||
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