EPTBastard Mafia 2 - Page 78
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Drazerk
United Kingdom31255 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
On June 22 2012 23:10 talismania wrote: ok I voted dropbear but I feel kinda like it's dumb now that he himself came up with that idea. scum shouldn't do that. numbers-wise if he's town that will leave us at 4 v 1 v 3 tomorrow I think which is actually a situation where the third party players could ostensibly help the scum player if they felt like it. unless my math is wrong. =/ on hyaach that's a good catch acro with maju's pm. If I were scum though I wouldn't have roleblocked nisani given how disorienting the king situation was. Then again maybe he saw the mass claim coming? dunno. I'm not sold on the idea anymore either, but I can't clear DropBear in my mind. There's just too much in his posting that doesn't feel right from a town perspective. I realize my cases from yesterday are now outdated, so I'll just sum up my current feelings. 1. He is extremely defensive, acting all up-in-your-face at anybody (mainly me) who accuses him. While I recognize this a bit from my own play (regardless of alignment), I usually defend myself once and then shrug off further accusations as town, while as scum I pad my filter replying ad infinitum. DropBear's posting style feels more like the latter than the former. 2. He is not reading the thread well at all. He repeatedly asks questions that have already been answered. This is definitely not townie. It clogs up the thread with repetitions. Additionally scum generally does not pay as much attention to the details of the game: they already know who's town and scum (this does not quite work in this game). 3. His roleclaim still doesn't sit well. Vengeful townie is an easy claim to make as scum as it has a pretty good chance of scaring townies into not voting. I am just very doubtful about the truthfulness of the claim. 4. He keeps pointing to his contributions this game as if that makes him town. It doesn't. His attitude has not been to proactively scumhunt, but reactively make a case on the most damnable player around. These happened to be 3rd party, so he was happy to comply. However, there are some redeeming qualities that reduce the whole scumfactor: 1. His explanation of how Maju's flip made KB less scummy in his eyes. Not the explanation itself (which is nonsense), but the way he insists on this explanation and how it changed his mind. His behaviour on this point seems like a townie defense, not a scum one. 2. His pro-plan attitude. He even suggested it... not sure he suggested it as a new idea, or as a reintroduction of Tali's idea, but he posted it at a time to give it extra reinforcement. I don't see a scum motive on how this can be a good idea. The only scum motive is the kind of thing Drazerk would do: because we don't see a scum motive, we think it's a town thing to do and don't lynch him. It's a giant gamble, but plausible. It's also wifom. The Ockham's razor explanation is: it's a townie thing to do. However, the long and the short of it is that I don't think we can allow DropBear to live. We are never going to make up our minds about him. There are plenty of reasons to suspect him of being scum and it's basically a win/win scenario: if he's scum, he dies. If he's town, we get rid of the speculation around him (lets face it, scum won't kill him and we'll have him left at lylo) and kill Nisani in the process. I see no downside. | ||
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Drazerk
United Kingdom31255 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On June 22 2012 23:04 strongandbig wrote: Okay but seriously Someone explain to me please why I would risk my life to help town? Town cred is only useful to me to avoid getting either hiro or myself lynched. But if one of us died to the vengeful townie it's exactly as bad for us as one of us getting lynched. Like, I want town to win, I guess, because they're already so far ahead so the game will end faster, and also because scum won the last game I played, which was annoying. But I don't see how risking my life to help town is in line with my win condition. To Acro: I'm afraid of two things. First, that there might be some anti-survivor third party out there with KP, probably ghost, since otherwise it seems weird that there would be a bulletproof survivor and two linked survivors. Second, that scum might decide to be a dick and say "if I'm not going to win neither will you trololol" and kill hiro once I'm dead. Sure it's not the biggest risk, but I really don't see the upside. Neither of us is going to die right now if we do this. Will you be free at the deadline? To get off if Nisani tries to screw us? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
On June 22 2012 23:16 talismania wrote: shit third party survivors are annoying. might be best to just get rid of them and force the scum to shoot into town to eliminate options even if it takes us to lylo. let me think. 4v1v3 then 3v1v2 then 2v1v1 ugh no that's just icky nevermind. For scum to get survivors on his side, he would have to claim. As it is now, survivors know as much as town does, which is that there is a scum hiding in: ghost, hyaach, dropbear and xssksksc. The survivors are pretty astute mafia players (well, hiro and S&B are... I have no history with ghost), so they may figure stuff out before we do, but in general we can assume town and survivors have the same info about who's scum. So survivors playing on the scum side of things only really helps them if scum can hand them an ironclad victory by claiming. The only one who has extra info is ghost, who knows of himself whether he's scum or not. However, how is not lynching DB a better option, unless we are actually convinced he's town? I've gone through the math, and DB being a vengeful townie does not delay lylo and does eliminate a candidate for the final scum. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
On June 23 2012 00:10 Drazerk wrote: Except if he isn't the only scum left and nisani controls the lynch forever meaning we lose... But leaving DB alive doesn't change that. Nisani only controls the lynch if he jumps off AND Hyaach doesn't roleblock him again tomorrow. We know Hyaach is a roleblocker. We don't know that he's town. However, Nisani getting roleblocked again tonight if he somehow survives, would guarantee him being town  Okay, changed plan to avoid that crap VOTE Scheme: Nisani: DropBear, Drazerk, Tali, Acro, Hyaach (5) DropBear: deconduo, HiroPro, ghost, xskskc, Nisani (5) xksksc: S&B (1) This way we are guaranteed a Nisani lynch. If Nisani does shitty shenanigans and jumps off, DB lives and Nisani dies all the same. All we have to do is make sure that DB has the votes before Nisani does. I am happy to wait until the votes are ready. It also removes any risk to anybody except Nisani and DropBear getting lynched! | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
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Drazerk
United Kingdom31255 Posts
I am now going back to bed so I can slip into a coma | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
Nisani: DB, Drazerk, Hyaach DB: Acro, Hiro, deconduo, ghost, Tali Not voted: xksksksc, Nisani, S&B TODO LIST xksksc: vote for Nisani (sorry for keeping you awake  )Nisani: vote for DropBear S&B: vote for somebody else When these votes are in, I will switch to Nisani to create the situation outlined above. Nisani and DB will have 5 votes each, but DB will have them first, so will be up for lynch. If Nisani tries any shenanigans, he will have more votes than DB and be up for lynch. If anybody else tries any shenanigans they will either be last on DB (and if DB is town telling the truth that means dead upon lynch) or nothing will change. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
[b]TODO LIST xkskcc: go to sleep Nisani: vote for DropBear S&B: vote for somebody else. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
Just to make sure I'm not miscounting | ||
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ghost_403
United States1825 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
Nisani201 (5) DropBear Drazerk xsksc Nisani201 Hyaach DropBear (5) deconduo Acrofales HiroPro ghost_403 talismania As of http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=345675¤tpage=3#58 | ||
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ghost_403
United States1825 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
On June 23 2012 00:40 ghost_403 wrote: Wait, I'm confused. (Not changed my vote confused, just "why are we here again" confused.) Why are we playing shenanigans with the votes again? Drazerk's objection to the DropBear lynch seemed to be based around the fact that he thought it was more important to lynch Nisani. So how does lynching DropBear this way fix that? Drazerk absolutely wants Nisani to die. I agree that Nisani's death is a good thing. However, killing just Nisani puts us at a possible lylo tomorrow with 3 very scummy candidates. Killing DB in addition gives us a good chance at killing scum (I still think he's scum and lying about his roleclaim) and in the strange situation where he's not, he avenges himself and kills Nisani: 2 birds with one stone. However, Nisani COULD screw this up and then, if DB is in fact town (if he's scum then who cares what Nisani does), Nisani is alive to wreak havoc, while town is no nearer to its wincon (having killed xskskckskc or S&B with DB). The NEW voting system absolutely 100% ensures Nisani's death (unless at least 4 people collude to screw it up). If Nisani cooperates, it kills DB together with Nisani. If Nisani doesn't cooperate, it just kills him and leaves DB alive. If somebody else doesn't cooperate we know he's anti-town and can lynch him tomorrow (Nisani will still be dead). In the NEW voting system the only scenario in which Nisani doesn't die, is if DB is scum. I consider that a win all the same. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
 Nisani, please vote for DB now! | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
On June 22 2012 14:10 Nisani201 wrote: Yeah I'm ok with this. I am busy tomorrow morning though so if we are going to do this we better do it quick. I cannot guarantee that I will make it to the flip (but I probably will). | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18425 Posts
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