EPTNewbie Mini XV - Page 4
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On June 08 2012 06:58 austinmcc wrote: Alright, fine. We'll keep it simple. Had a lot of people convinced that heist is scum. Both NKs, most people today, etc. ##Unvote ##Vote: heist Unforgiven, if you flip town I'm not going to be able to believe this Finally... | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On June 08 2012 07:13 ShiaoPi wrote: lol did not expect that. Well whatever I say I am probably going to get lynched by you guys right? :D Really, you didn't expect that...? I'm happy austinmcc finally came to his senses. It would have been pretty much GG if we had a no-lynch. Now we're very close to victory instead. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On June 08 2012 07:17 austinmcc wrote: Going to assume that everyone thinks Shiao is the final mafia? I'd say it's 99% at this point. He tried to deflect attention away from suki, then he deflected attention away from heist which was an important factor in Vivax being lynched instead of heist, and now he ALMOST (very very close) managed to turn this into a no-lynch -> stalling for time, shooting those who wanted to lynch heist at night, very possibly winning the game by leaving gullible townies alive (sorry to say, austinmcc, I think you belong to this category :/ ). I'm going to sleep now. I don't really see who could be the final Mafia besides ShiaoPi at this point. Earlier I considered Unforgiven_ve as a Mafia, but his behaviour today (and especially combined with suki's lynch) makes it very, very unlikely. Good night! | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On June 08 2012 07:33 Unforgiven_ve wrote: 2 from 2? Bunch of... Unknow foreigners... Now, this is where it gets really interesting... Xatalos or austincc (aka super-Anacletus)? I don't think saopi is mafia, its between those two guys Just before leaving: why austinmcc / me instead of ShiaoPi? Lol? I don't see why you would make that statement as either town or Mafia. Your play is just too confusing to think about. We both ensured the lynch (austinmcc at the last minute, but whatever, he got the job done) while ShiaoPi was very close to success with saving heist. I can't see how he would honestly see heist as town after all this, even advocating a NO-LYNCH of all things to save him... He must be Mafia or this game doesn't make any sense. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
Yeah, if yesterday's lynch had been a mislynch, it would have been already GG (2 town vs 2 Mafia). Even if it had been a no-lynch, it would have been basically GG (shoot Miltonkram -> convince one of austinmcc or Unforgiven_ve to vote for me -> GG). So this game was very, very close: I'm happy austinmcc made the correct choice in the end. As you can see, even a no-lynch would have pretty much meant a 90% win chance for Mafia... Unforgiven_ve, if you still wonder why ShiaoPi defended heist so desperately, there's your answer. I think it's pretty clear and in no way "bad Mafia play". They almost won with a no-lynch, but austinmcc made the right choice, ruining their plan. I'll have to be offline for some time, but later today I'll be going through ShiaoPi's full filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi) to find every suspicious move he's made up to this point. Especially considering the flips of suki and heist. I don't really see how the last Mafia could be anyone else after yesterday's events. Miltonkram looks like obvious town at this point, I'm quite certain austinmcc is town as well (he could have just won the game for Mafia yesterday if he wanted to, but chose not to), and Unforgiven_ve makes very little sense as Mafia (driving the lynches of suki and heist). | ||
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Xatalos
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On June 08 2012 21:08 ShiaoPi wrote: Here comes my defense, make sure to read it through in detail. I AM NOT MAFIA To explain my actions in day 2+3: I have a pretty high scum read on Xatalos (go reread my case for the details) and therefore what unfolded was that to me a highly possible scum player started to pressure one of my townreads (heist). Reasons for my townread have been given galore, maybe they look ridiculous given the flip now, but please consider them within the context without heist's flip. So I went pretty all out in my defense of him since had we mislynched we would have lost the game by now. (3 Town - 2 Scum, Nightkill still incoming). I look entirely stupid now and mafia are probably laughing their ass off because of me but I want to stress the fact that being wrong is not a scumtrait! As townie we lack the information of alignments, ask yourself could you have made the same misread on heist? @Milton: Then ask yourself why am I not conceding if I am scum? Please reread my filter from a town perspective not from a scum one with confirmation bias. Go through my cases and posts, judge them on their own not based on the current situation. What I want you to consider: Lynch Xatalos And for the lazy ones: What lends further credibility to this is that heist votes on unforgiven instead of Xatalos: + Show Spoiler + On June 08 2012 06:08 heist wrote: Vivax is town.  OK I can expect the backlash. But I think problem here is everyone is just trying to attribute the most scummy motivations to every action that I've been doing and ignoring everything that can't possibly construed as scum. Same to ShiaoPi, literally just for association with me. @Miltonkran: I don't think we should be policy lurker lynching anyone today. Today's lynch is way too crucial to have a mislynch on Eishi whose suspicions rest mainly on lurking, which at this point is a nulltell. And there's no way I'm voting for myself. (I don't understand you Vivax). It may be my point of view, but I think it's safe to say that mafia will be trying their hardest to get me lynched today. And from that point of view, my main suspicions are still going to rest on Unforgiven_ve. His unfounded accusations against Ange77 linking her and Suki, his quick bandwagon after ONE single off-hand comment from Solstice. Do you guys realize where all the accusations against me started? From this comment by Solstice: Solstice later backed up his accusation in his night post, but Unforgiven_ve, you basically hitch a ride on this bandwagon really quickly and without good reasoning of your own. You have continued to do no real analysis of me and instead state your reasoning as "it's obvious" and the rest just goading everyone else to mindlessly follow your example. ##Vote: Unforgiven_ve The remaining scum is either Miltonkram or Xatalos. And seriously I am not the only one suspicious of him: + Show Spoiler + On June 08 2012 05:41 Miltonkram wrote: @ ShiaoPi We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote. & + Show Spoiler + On June 08 2012 03:58 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Lol austin, you are surpasing yourself at making lame and mistaken acussations. Vote for heist, then vote for Xatalos and we will win. trust me. The reason my lasts post are so short is because im posting from my phone. & + Show Spoiler + On June 08 2012 04:20 austinmcc wrote: -snipped-- Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy. sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now. Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon. For sure it is risky to bus your teammate that hard and get him lynched but look at the following situation: We lose one of us tonight, you mislynch me day 4 (and I know I will flip town) and suddenly we lost the game as we head into night 4 with 2 Town vs. 1 Scum. It is the ideal situation for the scumteam that I went bonkers on my defense of heist, but I am doing my best to remedy it. I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case. You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias). It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory). With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course): On May 31 2012 22:37 O.Golden_ne wrote: If you read his filter you will see a broad range of players name in his posts, however rather than posting any solid analysis on ANYTHING he is recounting what they have said. I can read all the posts mate. he the proceeds to attack Eishi_ki on some fairly shaky reasoning. As s0lstice pointed out, Unforgiven_ve has contradicted himself. I like s0lstices case on him and will back it. Today my 4 lynch candidates are: Cattivik, Unforgiven, Superouman and Ange777. The second 2 are for lurking. And i f**king hate lurkers after that last game. This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them. On June 01 2012 14:20 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Sciberbia. I'm uncertain of suki at the moment. but i'm worried that a bandwagon is forming on him. we need to rationally consider a few options. i need to mull over suki's filter a while longer before condemning him. I feel that we may be more prosperous lynching some lurchers first, because as far as scumminess goes if suki is mafia (or anyone for that matter) chances are they'll keep digging themselves a hole if we can see it this early. I'm just so super wary of lurker now because of their potentially game changing absence. I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start... He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four. Now we get to the juicy part: On June 03 2012 06:59 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry took me longer than I thought to catch up and all, let's share some of my reads: To me there are several people kind of suspicious: First of I am really wary of Vivax: His play seemed really solid and townielike until ange posted her case on suki. He states that he believes 100% in his townread on suki and goes to great length to try to defend him and secure the lynch on ange, when his reasons to vote her were only lurking. It does seem scummy as we all know that suki flipped scum. On the other hand his tunneling could also be a sign of bad townie, I am kind of torn about him, what really strikes me out is that he does not seem to want to face the critique which is for sure going to come his way at Day 2, but on the other hand going by the first half of day 1 and his playstyle it could just as well be a bad townie. eishi_ki is slightly suspicious, he kind of lurked (although with RL complications, so not making a fuss out of it) but what struck me was the soft-defense suki gave him: + Show Spoiler + In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet. and I wasn't piling suspicion on Eishi_ki. Eishi was under fire by Cattivik, so I was posting my read on him, and my read was that, based on his posts thus far, Eishi had not contributed anything, but I did not feel he was scum. This makes it slightly suspicious, especially as these posts came before he came under pressure prior to lynch. Superouman: I guess everybody can agree that he is a huge mystery right now, wishy-washy non-committal posts, refusal to play according to win-con and a random vote on sciberbia. Until he starts posting again not much to make of, but seriously this guy is sooo confusing. Xatalos would be my last on this list of kind of suspicion. He seemed to take quite a good moderating role on in day 1 directing discussion etc. But the content within his posts is not too much if you look at them closely. Furthermore in the phase just before lynch he presses really hard for a lynch on unforgiven, given the fact that suki flipped scum it could have been a deflecting manoveur, this would kind of link him up with heist , but heist reads as pretty townie to me. ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway. On June 04 2012 01:53 ShiaoPi wrote: What confuses me right now is that heist seems to pop up as a sure scumread for some people out of the sudden, he was no where near suspicion in day1 only after solstice posted his case pressure mounted up. So let's take a look at solstice's case: The first topic of the case depends heavily on the town-read solstice got from Vivax. Furthermore it is worth to note that heist's suspicions of Vivax stem from his "100%-townread" he got on sciberbia. This is something which seems highly suspicious to me as well. I do not deny that sciberbia is a high townread for me too, but NOBODY is confirmed town until the flip. Naturally you can put that on a case of bad townie, but still it is weird. I can understand why he kind of tunnels Vivax from this point on. Furthermore it deals with his general playstyle in the first half of day 1. I do not see inconsistencies there. He scumhunts Vivax and (to a lesser degree) Unforgiven as well as pointing out the totally useless guy in superouman. Solstice's case continues with the lynch: He claims to see inconsistency and scummotivation in his play. I frankly said do not agree. Heist enters as soon as ange returns and wants to see more from her (like pretty much everyone) and then plays the waiting game. Unforgiven does weird posts in that time so I can see him jumping on him as he was suspicious of him anyway. His voting pattern seems pretty clear. His vote on superouman was part-pressure, part-incentive for other people to vote him off instead of ange, as he switches he simply goes to unforgiven as his next best scumread. He even states that he does not vote for suki as he reads as town to him, his "yelling" at vivax is something totally conceivable, take a look at vivax' post it screams stupidity he still does not believe that suki is scum but votes him anyway?! The so called "uselessness" of the counter-case on unforgiven can be put into doubt from my point of view. Until suki's flip everyone had reservations of unforgiven due to his play and therer was momentum building on it as well. And his "late" voting can be explained that he simply did not believe suki is scum, which he stated several times. He stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me. So much for my townread on heist. He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from. On June 05 2012 06:53 ShiaoPi wrote: I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win! On June 08 2012 05:24 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I will not switch my vote on heist. If you really only want one of eishi/heist then I say go with eishi, but no chance to convince you on Xatalos? Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc. Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia... | ||
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On June 09 2012 02:11 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Dont worry austin, you just anaclet'ed again this time lol. Always playing for mafia, maybe this time you are one of them !!! *suspense music* Could you explain why austinmcc would be Mafia over ShiaoPi? I just don't see any sense in that. Read through their filters and give some reasoning, not just random one liners. | ||
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Xatalos
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On June 09 2012 04:08 ShiaoPi wrote: What makes my case clearly incorrect, all of you just take a good look at the case and the exchange between me and Xatalos afterwards, think for yourself and think critically. I requoted my case since it is still valid. The same thing is working against me right now. I might not be able to convince Xatalos of his own guilt (well who could  ) but to all the rest of you, I am just wishing that you consider my thoughts, cases and posts based on their merit.-You were against lynching ange as soon as she started contributing. Well that is following the thread, I assume you meant as soon as ange posted the case on suki which was the contribution. -you were against lynching suki, because he is your scumbuddy -against lynching vivax? You were for lynching heist, as the general opinion was and then suddenly as Vivax got some amount of pressure you switched -no-lynch was not the flow of the thread just look at the way the votes tallied up. Everyone was on the fence against heist, everyone including you. -Where have I been following the thread? I wanted to lynch Vivax when nobody else seemed willing to do it, I want to get you lynched when nobody seems willing to do it. The first two are posts of Golden, I had no influence on them and can merely say that I would have disagreed with the way he posted, but I cannot do anything about it. So let's go on to answer your points on my actual post. It is my opening post, I share some of my scum-suspicion and follow it through with pushing for a Vivax lynch and succeed in it? How can you say that I go with the consensus opinion when I was the first one who brought back a Vivax lynch as option to the thread? Just reread day 2 and tell me that I am non-comittal... Where did I use the same arguments defending heist and pushing you? I am explaining my townread in this post as was requested by sciberbia. Compare my townread with the case on you, where are the similarities? I see no contradiction. I cannot understand how far you have to twist the events of day2, I was one of the leading guys pushing Vivax and vivax's selfvote confused me so I said that in the thread. I am neither unvoting (as unforgiven had suggested at that moment) nor saying go lynch somebody else. How is that wishy-washy? I keep pushing for you even say that I will not switch my vote? How is that non-comittal? The 2nd part of the post was merely me saying that in the scenario Milton shared with lynching either heist or eishi, I would want to go after eishi, since heist was a townread to me. How does my case make it impossible for me not to be mafia? I am pushing my agenda of lynching the scummiest person to me, which is Xatalos. To all other townies reading this. Tell me why would a townie defend himself like this? Most of it is pretty weak as I have answered them. He tries to discredit me instead of dissolving my arguments and points against him. What's wrong with making a case against you, instead of getting stuck on those arguments of your case we agreed to disagree on? How is it just "discrediting" to make the first actual case against you? I already dissolved some of your arguments, some of them are a matter of opinion which are useless to argue about, and some of them are so clearly wrong (like me wanting to "mislynch" heist all game...) that they're not even worth arguing about. I don't think there's anything more I can add to dissolve those remaining arguments of yours that you would never revert anyway (such as me creating a better & more active discussion atmosphere being "scummy"... what??). The most disturbing point about this post is that you just flat-out dismiss all the evidence of o.Golden_ne being Mafia, as if it had no relevance to you. It most certainly does - exactly as much as your own posts. But let's move on to your own posts for argument's sake: - You most definitely sheeped the consensus by going for Vivax. After suki flipped, the majority was for lynching Vivax, especially including the highest town read who had just got the first Mafia lynched (Ange777). It was pretty obvious that Vivax would be the lynch for Day 2 at the time where you named him your main suspect. Not to mention o.Golden_ne's obvious sheeping of both s0Lstice and Miltonkram during Day 1 (and not adding anything of his own). - You accuse me of switching to Unforgiven_ve (my main suspect from early Day 1) after Ange777 started showing signs of towniness. When heist did the exact same thing, you say it's perfectly logical and reasonable. You accuse me of being the last to vote for suki (even though I most likely typed the vote earlier than heist). When heist voted for suki second-last, you say he "simply stuck by his reads, which seems okay to me". These are just few examples of your screaming inconsistencies regarding your attitude to very similar events (the only real difference being who posted it). There's just no way you would have such a change in your views towards the same events if you were town - and actually honest with your reads. - Now you're just mispresenting what I said. I never said you wanted a no-lynch, I just said you completely changed your read on Vivax - for a very weak reason. Why would you do that unless you had no faith in Vivax being Mafia in the first place? - The reason you're wishy-washy is that you're just asking for a chance to do *anything* (even lynching Eishi_Ki or a no-lynch) just to avoid lynching heist. There's no way you'd be so willing to do almost anything except lynch heist, unless you're teamed with him. Especially a no-lynch would be very bad in that situation, almost ensuring a Mafia victory (just changing the situation from 5 town vs 2 Mafia -> 3 town vs 2 Mafia, a very comfortable situation for Mafia). | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On June 09 2012 05:01 ShiaoPi wrote: I am talking against a wall with Xatalos (who would have guessed?) To everyone else still in this game: May I hear your thoughts on this? The only way we can still win this is if we get scum tomorrow and not mislynch. Just a moment ago you said I'm not "trying to dissolve your arguments" hard enough, yet you give up completely on arguing once I respond. Where is your logic? On June 09 2012 05:01 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Its what all mafia (and bad townies) did every thime i posted something (LOLZ LEARN SUM ENGRISH) ... one of my main reasons to suspect xatalos So you suspect anyone (austinmcc, me) who thinks your play is confusing? The better course of action would be to read filters and state your reasoning. Didn't it cross your mind that ShiaoPi might just be trying to win your vote by not questioning your plays? | ||
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On June 09 2012 05:16 ShiaoPi wrote: my logic is that you constantly misread what I am writing and as you are (naturally) hellbent on lynching me there is nothing I can do with further arguing with you besides cluttering up the thread. What I can do now is wait and see. Milton should come online soon, austin should also be able to post soon. Hmmm. If you can't defend from those points, just say so clearly. I agree though that I want to see Miltonkram and austinmcc returning before the deadline. Either of them might be shot soon, and if they don't get to say their opinions, there'll be less to talk about tomorrow. | ||
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On June 09 2012 07:08 ShiaoPi wrote: Actually right now thinking about it, maybe I tunneled too hard on Xatalos. Milton also stands out in general inactivity, lack of cases and content. Something to consider for any of you? I really, really doubt it. He has been very open with his opinions and pushed heist with commitment. Although if he is, it would be pretty much GG and well played, I guess. No chance he would be the lynch today! Anyway, it's very unlikely. I'm going to follow up on my initial case and vote for ShiaoPi. I don't know how it could be anyone else, really. ##Vote ShiaoPi | ||
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 Here's a link to the MafiaQT: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/7CrsjttkpGNAZ Can I have the link to the ObsQT btw? | ||
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On June 09 2012 08:26 sciberbia wrote: NOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm so upset about this. gg xatalos and mafia Sorry sciberbia... If you read the MafiaQT, you'll see that I picked you on purpose to "buddy" and make you blind to me being Mafia A viable tactic, although a bit unfair for you. It worked very well in my previous game as Mafia, so I used it in this game to a very large extent (Vivax, sciberbia, austinmcc, Miltonkram...).Btw, I encourage you all to read the MafiaQT. Some really funny moments there! :D | ||
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