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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote: Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
@ShiaoPi you think he will flip town now?
I am now confused as hell. I don't believe scum would be that suicidal but right now my read on him is now: WTF?! No Idea
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
its after dead line...and after all a no-lynch is just as bad
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
I am not sure, reread my statement. I am fucking confused
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: --snipped--
ShiaoPi
Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:
- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point) - Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden. - Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?) - Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say
I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.
I'll just tag along your list: -Can you point me to the post where I defended suki? -I agree that you might have some suspicions on me for my behaviour just before the vote. I simply cannot fathom why he voted himself and refused to really regard the multiple cases against him. I see no motivation for scum to vote themselves, which was the reason for my posts where I stated my confusion. Regarding your opinion on an escape route. I could have easily unvoted if I really wanted to stay clear of the fallout, I did not since I said "a no-lynch is just as bad" and I still stand by it. Yes it sucked that we got one of our own, but a no-lynch would have been worse in regards of gathering information. We now have 2 confirmed (albeit dead) townies to look through. -In my case against Eishi I did state that it is a weak suspicion, I encouraged him to post more, but sadly he seems unable to due to RL constraints. I would say it is quite important with whom and how suki interacted as he is a confirmed scum so a soft-defense from a confirmed mafia player is in my opinion nothing to scoff at. Especially if that player has not had a big presence in this game until now. -Isn't that last argument kind of not an argument against me? I fail to see how it makes me scummy to suspect you (besides OMGUS) based on filler content. What is important is this game not a past game.
On another note:
On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote: Back... Too bad I wasn't around to see the lynch unfold (early wake up for today), but in the end, I doubt I would have done anything differently. Vivax's behaviour at the end was certainly strange, but it wasn't enough of a reason to suddenly vote Heist so close to the deadline, risking a no-lynch.
This might help Mafia in choosing their night kill, but I'm going to update my reads on the remaining players based on these two flips (Vivax and Superouman) and other developments.
Why help mafia in choosing the night kill? I am not against night discussion (it might help our blues after all) but does that bolded part only strike me as weird?
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On June 06 2012 03:20 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote: So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement. That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying. Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.
Why is that logic bad/scummy? We are pretty much playing a behavioural analysis game and therefore I just pointed out that taking things a person did not do to analyse him does not always bring up coherent results as I am not Golden and he isn't me. I also never said that you should not look at Golden's filter. You are trying to read something within my posts that isn't there.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
GG Sciberbia, you will be missed.
I will have to reread the cases against heist and his filter before giving my opinion on heist. But for now I am off to bed.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
First off I am really sorry for the lack of activity but I had a rather tight-knit schedule yesterday. I'll be going through heist's filter right now.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
First of regarding my opinion on heist:
I have already outlined in earlier posts how he feels kind of townie to me, so I will not repeat myself here, in regards of scumminess there are several things right now which feel a little bit off. -Lack of activity (weak one I admit it ) -The last post from him with his vote on Vivax, seems a bit like sheeping to me or just OMGUS.
Regarding the voting pattern I would not say he is the scummiest. Xatalos is way more reluctant to vote suki.. + Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 06:41 Unforgiven_ve wrote: To xatalos again, when I say tomorrow I mean day 2. ... I'm reading and directly responding From my phone Hmm, okay. Looks like some of your contradictions are just communication errors. Something to slightly lessen my suspicions, but I'll reserve my judgement until the deadline. I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer. ##Unvote ##Vote Suki
This is his votepost and recheck the thread he votes after Heist switches from unforgiven to suki. The lynch on suki is already ensured. So his vote does not make any sense. Even if golden had popped in in the last second there was no way for him to change the outcome of the vote. Furthermore Xatalos was the first to jump on the Unforgiven Suspicions.
Conclusively I would not support a heist lynch, the strongest argument seems to be the voting pattern, but Xatalos is way more fishy in that regard. I would advocate a lynch on Xatalos instead, going to outline my thoughts in the next post.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
My case on Xatalos:
I'll be going through his play chronologically:
Day 1: I already stated his "filler/moderating" content so I'll just give you a quote as example: + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 21:32 Xatalos wrote: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work.
Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman.
Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty.
Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player.
sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you.
His first meaningful action on Day 1 is a vote on Unforgiven, who did seem and still seems like a wildcard in regards of his posting habits. It is an easy action to take, since unforgiven's play is erratic and at day 1 he did not yet have some credibility by pushing the lynch on suki. He drops his suspicions as soon as unforgiven makes a reasonable defense. Could be a sign of townie but also of scum who decides that unforgiven is too hard to push as mislynch.
His next vote is on ange777:
On June 01 2012 21:10 Xatalos wrote:
-snip-
We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.
I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered.
-snipped-
About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.
I bolded the parts which seem important to me. -His post was still 9 hours away from deadline, a reasonable amount of time so there was no need to hastily consolidate on a lynchcandidate. -He gives no other reasons to vote ange besides sheeping MIlton's post (admittedly there was still not much to make off, but the sheeping is important) -A soft defense of suki, who is, just as a reminder, confirmed scum.
After Ange posts her case on suki, Xatalos responds the following:
On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote: Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.
He keeps up a defense on suki and keeps some suspicion on unforgiven.
Next up is his voteswitch from ange to Unforgiven:
On June 02 2012 04:59 Xatalos wrote:
You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.
##Unvote ##Vote Unforgiven_ve
The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.
Drops all suspicions against ange and just goes after unforgiven after the (at that moment) most outspoken townie-seeming person drops a FOS on him. It seems to me like an active attempt to deflect towns attention away from suki, especially as he keeps soft-defending suki.
He keeps lobbying for a unforgiven lynch although most of the people seem to jump on the suki-train instead. This post strikes me as important:
On June 02 2012 05:46 Xatalos wrote:
I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.
Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.
He says he does not want an active townie lynch. But suki is not really an active townie at that moment especially in comparison to unforgiven who was online and posting all the time leading up to the lynch.
In my last post I already outlined the switch from unforgiven to ange, but as it is really important I'll quote it again:
On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote: -snipped--
I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.
##Unvote ##Vote Suki
By that time suki is already a goner as heist has already swapped his vote. There is no need for Xatalos to switch, besides trying to be on the "right" side of a lynch. Of note is that he is the very last one to switch his vote.
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Night 1
The only remarkable post is this one:
On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: -snipped-
All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.
He starts throwing suspicion towards heist after solstice points him out. No original case with strong backing until now. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 2
He begins the day by posting a massive list of all players, which with closer inspection is just a summary of events. With two notable exceptions, a slight suspicion of MIlton and adding his vote onto heist.
On June 03 2012 10:42 Xatalos wrote:--snipped-- HeistHeist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post: Show nested quote +On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:On June 02 2012 06:14 Vivax wrote: This is a blatantly ridiculous thing to do, yet it looks like I won't be able to push the case against Ange777. To me, it looks like people go extra soft on her to whiteknight. You better pray suki is not gonna flip town, which i believe he will.
##unvote Ange777 ##vote suki
Ready to vote for Ange777 again once there is the prospect of a majority.
Also, remember that unforgiven_ve was the first to push the case against suki. That will reveal a lot about his alignment too.
OH, and Ange777 is actually following that case while suspecting unforgiven at the same time. Why exactly would you suspect someone of being mafia if he was the first pushing the case against someone you believe is mafia?
Looks like we have a scumtell.
The damn deadline is getting close. If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that? Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier. I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that. ##Vote HeistI'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
He is (again!) sheeping reasons outlined by others. There is close to zero input from him in this list and following vote on heist. The single thing he adds (the bussing comment) can be read either way and is a really weak argument. This gets reinforced by his following post in regards to heist's answer:
On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote: --snipped---
I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.
What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
He backs off his suspicions slightly and then just sheeps solstice's reasons. He also states that he wants to stick with his vote if heist does nothing to convince him otherwise. One can assume that he still has some strong conviction that heist is mafia. But how does this post feature in it then?
On June 04 2012 02:57 Xatalos wrote:
Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.
You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?
This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.
I post a defense of heist and points on Vivax and Xatalos just goes with the current flow of the thread (again) and now suddenly seems willing to switch on Vivax. Maybe because he knows that neither heist or Vivax are scum? Where did his conviction about heist go?
He then proceeds to switch his vote from heist to Vivax with the following:
On June 04 2012 18:25 Xatalos wrote:It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing: Show nested quote +On June 04 2012 03:48 Vivax wrote: I've already said I've finished with my defense and called out the two who i believe to be the remaining mafia members.
It's up to you to interprete my previous posts the right way, but if you don't see heist ignoring ShiaoPi and ShiaoPi defending heist, after s0lstice got killed upon suspecting heist, then go back and read my posts i wrote after his death.
To be honest, I don't mind being lynched, cause then heist and ShiaoPi will be in serious trouble anyway, maybe Ange777 too, but considering 'her' first hit on suki (case against him started by Eishi_Ki and unforgiven_ve) town trusts her too much. Also think that heist and ShiaoPi are supporting a case of a trusted (i believe) townie, it's a pretty safe choice even for mafia.
I think it's really misguided to focus on my posts when there is much more reliable information to get from sukis' posts, you look for mafiavibes from me when there are behaviors of a confirmed mafia towards other players at your disposal.
Look especially at the triangle suki-heist-O.Golden_ne. 1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up. 2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player. 3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice". 4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...). Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point. ##Unvote ##Vote Vivax
His switch seems to be well reasoned with his list of 4 points, but these things were all mentioned already by several others. How come that Xatalos just never seems to find some original strong evidence against his lynch targets? Quite an interesting thing.
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Night 2
He again posts a giant list of summaries, this time including me in his list of suspects (besides heist). His strongest argument is Golden's post in regards to suki. His other arguments were pretty weak.
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Day 3
He immediately drops the vote on heist. As in defense to Milton's suspicions he keeps up this single line of defense against his filler/wishy-washy.
On June 07 2012 06:00 Xatalos wrote:Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways  What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?
I am asking you how big should the metagame with a sample size of 1 count in regards to townieness/scumminess? What I am seeing from Xatalos is non-comittal play, filler content, attempts to seem contributing (look at his lists) and always sheeping reasons others have brought up. So I strongly believe Xatalos to be mafia.
##Vote: Xatalos
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
I'm on my phone right now and in a bit of a hurry, so I'll post more later, but I just have to comment on this.
1) I had already said I wouldn't let a no-lynch happen no matter what, so the exact timing for my vote on suki doesn't matter much. I could have done it an hour earlier or just a minute before the deadline... The end result would have been the same. 2) I probably typed the vote earlier than heist, but he ninja'd me while I was typing a bit more than just "##Vote suki" like he did, so... At the time of writing I thought my vote attained the majority. 3) Yes, I was the first to suspect Unforgiven_ve, very early on Day 1. I didn't start suspecting him once Ange777 started seeming more and more townish: I just wanted to lynch the more likely Mafia out of Unforgiven_ve and suki.
You already managed to save heist yesterday, and it's looking more and more like you're trying to seal your victory by lynching me instead for today. The more you post, the more suspicious your connection with suki and heist seems.[/QUOTE]
1) Heist said the same thing, why is his vote-switch scummier than yours? 2) Possible as timestamps are not far apart 3) Heist was actually one of the few who did not feel like pushing ange777 immediately, he was not part of the bandwagon on her, so if he is scum why did he stay out of it?
Yes, I admit I have a pretty sure townie read on him (besides his lack of activity since day 3) and therefore I am not afraid to defend him against accusations. IF he is scum like you are claiming, well sucks for me and my reading abilities then.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
EBWOP: Messed up my quote tags >_>
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On June 07 2012 22:32 Xatalos wrote:
1) Have I ever even suspected heist for his vote switch as a major reason in the first place? I suspected his weird behaviour (flip-flopping his stance on suki, appearing indecisive and panicking with the lynch, assumption of Vivax bussing suki while suki was apparently a town read for him...). It would have been pretty pointless/bad for me as Mafia to vouch for suki's townieness while his lynch had clearly been inevitable for a long time. 2) Yep... 3) Dunno, maybe just to appear more townie. Why would I push heist instead of Vivax on Day 2 if I was Mafia? Why would I risk my credibility by defending suki (the inevitable lynch) openly as Mafia?
I'll have to read your full case later, not for your sake, but to explain the reasonings behind my potentially weird plays...
1) Heist's case mainly rests on the voting issue, his stance on suki has been pretty solid all the time, defending him. Now you cite his emotional play as reason, but why did you discard it earlier? Same thing with the bussing comment.
On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2012 16:32 heist wrote:From Xatalos: Heist
Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:
On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote: Show nested quote +
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing.
The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?
Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.
I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.
##Vote Heist
I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...
Look at my very first post. I use caps lock pretty frequently when I want emphasis. If you can actually pinpoint any emotion as you call it to something less circumstantial than caps lock, please point it out. I was just merely active during last phase of the lynch. The bussing comment is referring to my opinion of Vivax, whom I believe is mafia. I don't know if you've bothered to read Vivax's comment, but his vote comes close to an hour before the lynch, which is a lot of time before anything is final. I wanted to gain some momentum for Unforgiven_ve but nope. He starts off by putting distance between himself and his vote, arguing all game that Suki is certain town. But then he goes against his surest town read and votes for her anyway. This is classic bussing as mafia and I'm dealing strictly with Vivax's behavior. It was very late when I was writing that (pretty tired at that point), and I likely had some confirmation bias based on your bussing comment. I agree that the point about your emotionality toward Suki's lynch wasn't good, since looking at your filter again, your earlier posts actually DO include excessive usage of capslock and strong, emotional statements. And the situation really was quite hasty, so it's not all so weird that your posts were hasty as well. I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts. What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.
3)You could push both as both would be a mislynch in scum's favor. Yes, why would mafia-Xatalos do it if mafia-heist is doing it??? You are measuring with different scales regarding yourself and heist.
I do not even understand your last sentence. How would you need to read my case against you for my sake? But yeah I am waiting for your response
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Eishi and heist? You guys here? start posting and sharing your thoughts please...
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
I am simply of the opinion that heist is town and you are scum. That's the only reason for me "going all-in". Doesn't seem to matter anymore since nobody seems to care for this game anymore besides us two...
Besides the bussing comment (and it can be read both ways) heist's stance has simply been I am not sure that suki will flip red as he seems townie to him.
But it remains that you and heist have been close in opinion on day1 and therefore you are still weighing differently.
1) We won't be able to discuss on that point it seems, I am not budging from my point you are not from yours.
2) What is scummy is how easily you seem to be swayed from your own opinion
3) Was not a critique against you
4) A "clear" defense would have been what Vivax had done. So I considered yours soft. Semantics really. We already discussed Golden's post on suki. I am of the opinion take it with a grain of salt and you are of the opinion to take it for 100%. We can't argue on that anymore. Point remains we both defended suki.
5) Point remains, you tried to get unforgiven lynched instead of suki
6) Timeline remains as it is, I already acknowledged the possibility of being ninja'ed but it is not my main argument anyway.
7) I am bashing you for "sheeping" since you have never contributed your own reasoning on why somebody should have been lynched. I agree there is nothing wrong with taking arguments from other players but why is there none from your own side? Because you are not really actively scumhunting anyway? That's my conclusion from it.
8) Nobody commented on that defense post, but the "points" you made out from it where all already mentioned, it was just a recurring pattern in Vivax' play. If you are mafia your behaviour makes sense as I outlined it. You simply do not care who gets mislynched as long as you can get a mislynch, so you naturally go with the mood of the thread which was lynch Vivax instead of heist.
9) I meant non-comittal in ways of not pushing your own reads always piggybacking on someone else's opinion. Sharing town-reads is not pushing a case. And it can be interpreted ambigious as well.
Why am I still doing such an effort in this game anyway? Nobody seems to care anymore -_-
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Seriously we are 3:30 hours to deadline and this thread is dead, seems like only me and Xatalos still care about this game...
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
@austin:
I agree with your suspicions on unforgiven, but his play is so ridiculously erratic that I have no clue about his alignment. The obvious thing going for him is the d1 lynch on suki and I would be really surprised if scum actually decided to bus/sacrifice their roleblocker without being sure that we do not have blue roles... That's pretty much the only thing that stops me from voting him off.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
My case on Xatalos in short:
-Not much content despite being pretty active in thread -Wants to look contributing (lists) but actually does not much. -Easily swayed from his own opinion -Soft-defense of suki during the d1-lynch and trying to deflect attention onto unforgiven -Always going with the flow of the thread, never going against it.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
uuh do not wake nightmares from Anacletus >_>
You are right on the lack of helpful townie seeming stuff. Especially paired up with the lack of activity/interest he shows, it does warrant suspicion. But for now I would much rather go after Xatalos.
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