EPTNewbie Mini XIV - Page 2
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
I believe I went after solstice first after getting pressured, as he was the one pressuring me. so how come that you think he had nothing to do with the accusations? | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
In the 2nd one you quote my defense against hegeo's case on me. There is nothing similar in his suspicion of solstice and my defense, the only thing, which could qualify in that way was me calling out Mufaa yet again (I already did earlier and therefore just took it as an example in the context in my post.) Compare that to Milton: First of he claims to have a "case with merit", which is just as weak as any other he has posted thus far. He also drops it really quick for something with "merit". The 3rd one is part of my case against solstice. I went after him since he called me out with weak reasoning, I would have assumed that the process from pressure to FOS was pretty transparent and well-thought in comparison to his "case" against solstice. Just as another reminder, he actually dropped his pressure on solstice, while I am still more or less slugging it out with him. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
In regards to my answer towards your question on the filter. I must admit that I simply did not pay it that much heed. I see the accusation as split in 2 parts, the sciberbia part and the filterpart. My thoughtprocess on that is: okay, he calls me out for a switch in opinion and a small filter. I just checked your filter to get more information into my reply and I see, wow his filter is just as small. why is he calling me out on that? So I go on to just clarify my opinion and call you out. This seems to you as scummy as you see it as unrelated issue, I saw it as part of your argumentation and therefore defended according to it. Defending in this case meant deflecting it by calling the validity of the argument into question I admit it would have probably been better to just lay open my gameplan then, but I was reluctant to as I felt that there was no need for it. From your point of view it was just me bringing in more other things to deflect from myself. From my point of view it was simply a matter of defusing an argument that was annoying to me. I lacked and probably still lack according to some people content but it really is hard to get some content in, if I have to defend myself all the time. Even if I bring new content by bringing up other people it is written off as poiting in other directions in hopes of going scot-free. If you keep that dilemma in mind hopefully my posts make more sense to you. I tried bringing in more content and it gets written off so I just focus back on defending as I cannot contribute if I am lynched. Regarding playstlye, I did in the end cite it as it seemed necessary defensewise. I said it can be read as scummy, so I just put trust into your reading comprehension to read it the way it was meant to be. Conclusively with that well-structured post I now got a good idea of your suspicions and hopefully answered some questions for you. On another note that post also convinced me that there is logic and sense behind your accusation, since my play has been admittedly not the best. ##unFOS: s0lstice If you got more questions keep coming. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On May 24 2012 07:39 Miltonkram wrote: ShiaoPi, I did not deliberately disregard your later posts. However, real life has gotten in the way of me posting more content and my follow up analysis of your later posts was left undone. Suffice to say, I think what you call play style is actually your built in excuse for your scummy behavior. I think the healthy town atmosphere has forced you to be more active than you originally planned, and only after you were pressured by s0Lstice and myself did you begin to post decent, but not good, content. If I may sum up your play style for the sake of time: -Lurk until there is pressure on you -Respond to pressure with mostly defensive statements -When that doesn't work, begin to put counter-pressure on your attacker -Bandwagon on me once you see that I'm a prime lynch I'd post more direct analysis, but once again, time is running short. Everyone, I hope you can figure out why this is scummy activity in my eyes. If I get lynched today, I hope you keep this in mind. The pressure seems to be off ShiaoPi right now, so unless I can miraculously convince you all to vote for him I guess I'll have to switch my targets. If I may share my point of view on your points: -start laid back in Day 1 as it is after all Day 1 with all its implications -defend yourself against pressure (this is actually a no-brainer, which player does not?) -Look at ways to put in content by analyzing your attacker's play and pointing out aspects I find suspicious -Pick apart your weak case against me and make conclusions from it. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Milton: Me Hegeo: Release, Mordanis, sciberbia, solstice, milton Mufaa: hegeo Not-voting: Golden, Mufaa I do admit Hegeo's absence is highly suspicious although it may be timezonerelated it is 1:00AM right now in CEST. But he had plenty of time beforehand. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Golden voted on Milton as well, so its as sciberbia said | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
First of I am still unsure if we are going after scum or bad townie, even if his absence is letting me trend toward scum. Secondly it has already been well stated that we do not want a no-lynch, looking at the votecount right now we get a lynch on hegeo. Anyone jumping off that train so close to the deadline is pretty much a confirmed scum, trying to sabotage town or in an last ditch effort to save his scumbuddy hegeo. There is probably a lot of WIFOM in that statement, but I actually think it makes sense. If anyone does switch he practically begs to be lynched day 2... | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
##unvote: Miltonkram ##vote: hegeo Just for the record, I am not sure about that lynch and to me Milton seems more scummy. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Sadly it is too late to get some discussion on that post before lynch. Mordanis your timing is incredibly scary. Especially just that single remark in the entire post stuck you as most important to respond to? Either you are a really fast reader or we just had a knee-jerk from you. Anyway, really waiting for the flip now... | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Mordanis and Release you should better prepare a damn good defense now | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
We just lost sciberbia so we probably should take a closer look on his filter: It mainly consists of pressure against Milton and some rebuttals with Mordanis and to a lesser extent release. Just before getting shot he also has a slight suspicion of solstice. What does mafia stand to gain from eliminating him? -Silencing a good and contributing townie, who was pretty much a high townread (at least in my opinion) -Removing Pressure off his targets -Making people suspicious of his targets Looking at it only the first point is a given the rest is probably close to WIFOM, but something to keep in mind following the discussion. Regarding our choice of lynch for day we now have as reasonable candidates Release/Mordanis/Milton and myself (I guess). I'll share my thoughts on the whole Release/Mordanis issue later, just wanted to say that we should not forget sciberbias contributions even though he got shot (maybe it should be even closer scrutinized because he was shot) | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
In order to look at the Release/Mordanis issue I chose to start reading through the filters again, especially their defense against hegeo's last post. I assume that everyone still has hegeo's case in mind while reading this. Reading through Release's filter, I believe everyone sees the aggressive stance he has since the beginning of the game. Nothing wrong with that initially. He is the first to actually cast a vote as a response to some soft pressure of hegeo. This seems a bit of like an OMGUS move especially considering that he pushes one of hegeo's arguments away as "blatant lies" (+ Show Spoiler + On May 23 2012 04:45 Release wrote: Response to a) my point was that contributing useless information is worse than having no contribution at all. My example was Sciberia's asking the same question twice, which has since, been given some clarification. b) Lynching a lurker is not "good riddance". I don't see why a townie should feel that way. Lynching a lurker (if there are more than one) is random to a townie, but clear to the mafia. The mafia will obviously choose the lurker whom is a townie, therefore causing us to mislynch. Advocating a lurker lynch instead of focusing on those who are suspicious is a Mafia's way of thinking. In fact, you don't even list some alternative, despite it not being a best case scenario. c)my answer was this: "My point is that Townies can make mistakes, but townies don't make slips. Mafia make can make mistakes; usually their mistake is to make a slip. I want to make that very clear. We shouldn't end up lynching for a mistake. We should lynch someone who makes a slip." From Newbie II game + Show Spoiler + Probulous got a AKCT lynched. That was a mistake. He was clearly contributing so even though he made a mistake, he shouldn't get lynched. (he didn't) Sheth however, does slip in trying to save his scumbuddy and got lynched for that. this was in support of the above point i made. Your c) and reasoning behind are Blatant Lies; you intentionally leave out my actual point to make it seem like i am posting filler. If i didn't know better, you know that i am town, and see that i am dangerous to your scum motives. You are targeting me with a weak case based on incomplete evidence. In regard to the FOS before unFOS, i did it to show that i was putting both of them under suspicion. There are 3 mafia. I only had 2. Are you seriously trying to convince to to avoid the larger picture and completely ignore anyone (other than the person who i am targeting at the moment) who might be Mafia? The FOS's got people talking. Talking is good for the town. Again, this is an example of where you completely ignore the larger picture. "overly motivated try to get information." All townies want information. After all, we don't know much. You however, seem perfectly content to let this day slip by without extracting a lot of information from it (presumably because you already have the information because you are scum). I see no other option as of yet (or until you reply) but to: ##Vote: Hegeo So for now Release seems to me like a case of zealous townie, who sadly went after the wrong target. On Topic of Mordanis: In his filter his posts against hegeo often included the accusation of "passive-aggressiveness". I still have no clue what he means with it and I certainly do not see it in hegeo's posting. Seems like a case of adding up arguments when he ran out of things with solid backing to point out. Concluding from that you could say he found somebody easy to attack to maybe get a mislynch happen. Adding weight to that train of thought is his post in which he calmly claims to ignore hegeo. This is stupid for the simple reason that town wants to get information via pressuring or lynching. If you ignore your tunneltarget, how can you gather information from it? For that the following quote is also useful: + Show Spoiler + And finally, I think that Release has pretty much posted a refutation of your rebuttal. Once he has begun actively pushing the case against hegeo, he pretty much ignored his responses and found a way to even not need to answer hegeo at all. The strongest point against him is the ridiculous "knee-jerk" we got from him right after hegeo's post: + Show Spoiler + On May 24 2012 08:29 Mordanis wrote: "Also, no interaction between these two in the thread" + Show Spoiler + On May 22 2012 15:08 Mordanis wrote: First off, let me say that I'm glad for your early FOS. I was trying to think of a way to get the ball rolling and I just couldn't figure out how to do it. Let me try to clear up any confusion now though ^^ The reason I mentioned the last game I played is because it was the only game I've ever played before. To me it seems that referencing my only experience is quite logical. If it doesn't seem logical, I apologize! My reference was only a way for me to explain what I thought and why. The reason that I said that I'm for a lynch today is this: I think that in 99% of cases, a D1 no-lynch only ends badly for the town. There's no real information that is gained, All we really find out is that the player who dies during the night was town. If a vigi shoots during the same night, it really doesn't give us much info either (all we know is who died, and probably only a slightly over 1/4 chance of hitting mafia). However, if we do lynch, then we pressure the mafia to either defend their scumbuddy or let one of their own die. It puts pressure on the mafia, and we have a chance to get out to an early lead. Also, I look at it in a risk/reward way. If we lynch D1, our risks are (1: mislynch). That's basically it. That would put us in a 5vs2 against the mafia. Our reward however, would be (1: information, 2: potential scumlynch). We would have solid input from everyone, from which we could at least begin to unravel who the mafia is, who the town are, and who the lurkers are. On the other hand, if we start without a lynch, we have to stat virtually from the beginning, only we know concretely one person who is (read was) town. As to your concern, I do think that we got lucky in my last game. We lynched one of the lurkers who seemed only somewhat scummy, and he flipped scum. This time, hopefully, we will have begun the hunt for scum early enough that we will have a much better target than last time. My hope is that we will have a good candidate to lynch. If however, we get sidetracked and have no solid reads, I prefer a lynch of the strongest scumread who is also a lurker. That way, if we are wrong, we won't lose a critical part of the team. If only a couple of people are active today and we lynch one, that's sending a clear message that we'll lynch the people who are participating actively. I think its pretty obvious to see where that path leads. That being said, there is not nearly enough activity yet for me to decide whom I would support lynching. As to the questions Sciberia asked: I'd really support a lynch for anyone that could get a majority of the votes. In some weird situation where everyone decided to lynch the best, most logical player, I'd try to get a no-vote. In reality though, I trust my fellow townies to be rational enough to lynch someone who is fairly likely to be scum. + Show Spoiler [written after Release's second FOS] + Also, Release: You're being very aggresive. Very agressive. I understand the need to get the scumhunt going as quickly as possible, but you've placed the only two players who have posted content under suspicion. I think this discourages people from posting content. Artanis, a player whom I trust, wrote that mafia are rarely aggresive. Based on that, I'll trust that you are just trying to get things stirred up. I just think that you're going overboard. We need to get the ball rolling, but we also need people to talk. So please stop with the extreme distrust for a while, and wait for a little while while everyone analyzes what we've just written. Also, I'd be very happy if you would be so kind as to explain to the rest of us why you're being so aggressive. If you really are town, then tell us, and trust us to be rational. If you're not, well you're certainly attracting a lot of attention. And please, everyone, get active. We need a healthy discussion if we are going to lynch scum today. If we have 4 lurkers though, I don't think we'll do very well. Note the spoiler.... Normally I wouldn't post much content between day cycles, but this seemed a little too not-factual. This post makes no sense at all. Even if we believe him: + Show Spoiler + On May 24 2012 08:37 Mordanis wrote: No, I just opened a few spoilers, and that stuck out at me. It was so wrong I couldn't help but correct it. It is the equivalent of me saying that Hegeo never mentioned Mufaa. I couldn't help but post that in case people review that in the night and take his statements at face value without reviewing the thread. At least that one was a bald-faced lie. So remember that everyone, when you read it. He accuses the 2 people who were on him from the start, you can expect some bias. It is nonsensical to build up his defense around this tiny tidbit, when there is a lot of other (and weightier) argumentation in that post. Seems like a total panic move on being called out. Now taking his more "collected" response into focus: He points out several weak points in hegeos case (e.g.the whole sciberbia/sciberia thing) and does an overall good job of defending. Nevertheless the "knee-jerk"-first-reaction is still incredibly scummy. He defends it by quoting emotion, which he before used as one of his arguments for the lynch on hegeo. Weak defense regarding that in general. To be honest if he had not had that reaction I would have probably discarded hegeo's case now as "bad townie play", in which I had put him anyway. Going on to Mordanis' post on day 1. Basically he just posts a giant repetition of the sequence of the events. He nudges in a point here in there (an fos on Golden, with a weakly outlined suspicion, some suspicions on me, which I will answer later and some more counterpressure against Release), but overall it is a useless summary of know events, which make him seem contributing without doing much in reality. Conclusively I would say that Mordanis has been the more suspicious part of the Release/Mordanis case and therefore should be pressured to talk more about his reasoning as he has already offered. So ##FOS: Mordanis. @Mordanis: You said that I was trying to stop a scumhunt. From your point of view this might have seemed reasonable if you ignored the fact that he flipped town. I stated my reasons for not joining the pressure on hegeo, I read him as weak/bad Townie (which he was), so I really do not understand your suspicion here. Grasping at straws to deflect attention? | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
Just putting it out for now: Milton is a really unsure read for me now. His posts on Release and Mordanis were good, his play has improved from day 1, but I still cling to my earlier pressure on him, regarding weak cases etc. etc. So his day 2 has given him some cred in my eyes but not enough to swipe away the suspicion. Furthermore I actually believe that solstice has gotten quite some good points on you golden. In your response to him you acknowledge most of the problems he pointed out in your play, but there is no explaination going on and then you go in with a simple vote on Milton? I would like to get some more reasoning for that. | ||
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ShiaoPi
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ShiaoPi
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A lynch on skware would be totally fine with me as well. he is almost as bad a lurker as mufaa was and I still do not get his vote on Release without some proper reasoning. I do hope though that Mordanis and Release might be able to see it and maybe give their opinion on the current state of the vote. Since we need 4 to lynch at least one of them has to come online and place his vote or we will end up with a no-lynch. | ||
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ShiaoPi
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
My main argumentation was actually a kind of weak case against hegeo, (I would be really happy if you could outline the entire "passive-aggressive" thing a bit better. It is still totally quizzical to me) the knee-jerk and no contribution in regards of day 2 until now (or much less in comparison to the zeal of day 1). The reason I investigated you and Release is not so much about Milton's ideas but more about a case of a confirmed townie (bad as he might have been), who spent a lot of effort writing it. I did say that your defense in general was pretty reasonable and logical (since the case of hegeo is much more about feeling a certain kind of tag-teaming in day 1 than solid evidence). Before hegeo's case you two were pretty high town reads for me and now I am just not as trusting anymore, which I hope is a reasonable stance towards you, since a "knee-jerk" remains a "knee-jerk". There is also no questioning that we did gather information from this and I was not suggesting lynching everyone who participates in a mislynch, my FOS was just in order to get more information, which you are openly providing. So that's a plus. Onto the topic of today's lynch I believe that with the current votecount we should go with the lynch on Golden. skware's play has been ridiculous until now so I would say if need arises he can easily be dealt with via lynch/whatever blue role we have. As of now we have about 2,5 hours to go (If I recall correctly) so unless Golden posts some substantial and good defense which can convince me, I'll stay put with ##Vote O.Golden_ne | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
On May 27 2012 06:09 Mordanis wrote: @Shiao Why don't you pay more attention to Sciberia's accusation of Solstice then? Sciberia was certainly killed by mafia, was certainly town, and was logical. I just don't get why you pay more attention to Hegeo who was killed by the town because he was a bad townie (illogical). Care to explain why? Maybe I should have posted my opinion on sciberbia's thoughts kind of got lost when I spent time catching up to the thread. After the post of hegeo I was pretty sure that he would be flipping town. Maybe it is sheeping solstice's reasons, but I see no reason for scum to act as hegeo did. Hegeo basically thought, okay I am dead better leave my best scumread behind even if it costs me the chance to defend myself. On another note it was in sciberbia's own quote: "I looked through solstice's filter and didn't find anything else I had an issue with, so I'm not prepared to say he is definitely scum, but it really strikes me as something suspcious. Again, just wanted to put it out there in case I die." It was not a "100%-convinced-of-it"-case as hegeo made his. I mean as I stated above, hegeo gave away his chance to make a reasonable defense for his case. Therefore I scrutinized it a lot more. Furthermore the mafia goals to shooting sciberbia have already outlined by me in this here: + Show Spoiler + On May 26 2012 00:35 ShiaoPi wrote: Sorry for the lack of activity before but as it is life happens. We just lost sciberbia so we probably should take a closer look on his filter: It mainly consists of pressure against Milton and some rebuttals with Mordanis and to a lesser extent release. Just before getting shot he also has a slight suspicion of solstice. What does mafia stand to gain from eliminating him? -Silencing a good and contributing townie, who was pretty much a high townread (at least in my opinion) -Removing Pressure off his targets -Making people suspicious of his targets Looking at it only the first point is a given the rest is probably close to WIFOM, but something to keep in mind following the discussion. Regarding our choice of lynch for day we now have as reasonable candidates Release/Mordanis/Milton and myself (I guess). I'll share my thoughts on the whole Release/Mordanis issue later, just wanted to say that we should not forget sciberbias contributions even though he got shot (maybe it should be even closer scrutinized because he was shot) As I pointed out you can only gain limited information from a nightkill as only 1) Silencing good/contributing town is a given. A lynch on the other hand gives you the entire dayplay to consider when rereading the thread to get to know how we ended up with that situation. So in conclusion, I did consider sciberbia's last post but I did not consider it to be as "strong" as hegeo's last post. Furthermore s0lstice's play after the post in which he explained his accusations against me seem to me very townie. As it is my personal read, I simply chose not to make that much out of sciberbia's "last words". I hope this makes sense to you, otherwise ask away! | ||
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