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On May 25 2012 22:36 zelblade wrote:
I doubt misder is lying since roleblocking palmar and hiro (as scum) makes little sense. Whilst it is possible that he did it in order to prepare for a claim situation later on, I am more inclined to think that hes town for now. Its not possible for barundar to be traitor, because in that case Misder would have roleblocked his roleblock on risk. (I think) Not really sure how the night actions resolve but this would seem to be the most logical...?
That probably means that we have a traitor somewhere in the list. Well he cant do much at this point considering how a rolecop is absolutely useless except for lucking out into a fakeclaiming mafia, talk gets him lynched instantly unless he lucks out into a mafia again. The only problem is that he might have used his frame ability on Palmar or Tails n1/2, which would be problematic. Unlikely since that would require quite a lot of luck, but something to consider.
The possible candidates for mafia/traitor are Misder, Toad, Zeph and Sandroba. Include myself if you so incline but I know im green so ill exclude me, and Palmar if you feel that its possible he got framed. Leaving him out for now as it is, as said, really unlikely.
I shall be reading through the thread to come to some conclusions.
@Matt I dont think traitors have to be dead for town to win.
I didn't think of a frame on Palmar or talismania. I think you're right though - it's possible, but extremely unlikely. But that could mean that SlOosh's check of Palmar was tampered with.
You are correct that Barundar can't be traitor because the roleblocks wouldn't line up. That situation in my earlier post is incorrect. The only way Barundar is traitor is if Misder is also mafia, which I think is unlikely.
You aren't a candidate for traitor, only for mafia. As traitor, you would have no way of knowing that the mafia had picked JOAT.
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On May 25 2012 21:13 Mattchew wrote:
do traitors have to be dead for town to win?
Is it possible barundar is the traitor?
Yes. If a traitor exists then town has to root out all anti-town forces and so town has to get rid of the traitor as well.
What alignment does a traitor who was originally townie show up as to an alignment check?
As per the OP role description of Parity Cop:
Parity Cop - You are an Alignment Cop with the ability to compare Investigations. Instead of receiving "Innocent" or "Guilty" your targets will be compared for Alignment. On Night 1 you will receive no result. Every night after, the new person you investigate will be compared with the person you investigated the prior night. If they are all of the same alignment you will receive "Same" otherwise you will receive "Different". Framers, traitors and godfathers can still screw with you.
If checked by a parity cop, a traitor would show up as "same" if it was the second player checked and the first checked was a townie.
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On May 25 2012 16:55 sandroba wrote:
@Qatol Do you think it's possible zelblade outed the scum on top for no reason, by claiming that shit way early? Why would he do that as mafia?
I'm inclined to agree with this line of reasoning.
The timing of him calling shenanigans on the top 3 players was much too early. [link]
He was essentially the first person to cast suspicion towards the top 3 players.
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I think Toad's either the last mafia or a traitor.
Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all (ie. you want them all to live so that the scum in the group doesn't get found out)
Some of his reasons for not lynching into the group include:
a) They could all be town
b) If we mislynch we could potentially lose a strong blue role
c) We get 0 information from the lynch
d) It will cause confusion
e) It's a 2/3 chance to lynch town for nothing
f) even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now ??
This is full of contradiction:
I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy.
If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk.
I never like what he's doing.
He would do what risk is doing in his position, but doesn't like what he's doing?
People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred".
Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!?
This is just plain wrong. I don't really remember people claiming he has a townie mindset, nor that he is doing things for towncred.
At this point, come tomorrow, I would prefer his lynch over anyone else who might seem scummy. It's too much of a stretch for me to believe that Toad actually thought all 3 of the people in that group could be town.
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##vote barundar I was trying to figure out if he coulda been the traitor and we had to lynch him... since we do he's obvi vote today
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On May 26 2012 00:34 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2012 21:13 Mattchew wrote:
do traitors have to be dead for town to win?
Is it possible barundar is the traitor? Yes. If a traitor exists then town has to root out all anti-town forces and so town has to get rid of the traitor as well.Show nested quote +What alignment does a traitor who was originally townie show up as to an alignment check? As per the OP role description of Parity Cop:Show nested quote +Parity Cop - You are an Alignment Cop with the ability to compare Investigations. Instead of receiving "Innocent" or "Guilty" your targets will be compared for Alignment. On Night 1 you will receive no result. Every night after, the new person you investigate will be compared with the person you investigated the prior night. If they are all of the same alignment you will receive "Same" otherwise you will receive "Different". Framers, traitors and godfathers can still screw with you. If checked by a parity cop, a traitor would show up as "same" if it was the second player checked and the first checked was a townie.
[green]is that because of the frame ability of the traitor or the fact thta he is Town Traitor?[/greeb]
It doesnt make sense that Palmar would chose traitor, he hates playing as scum. Idk what the traitor is doing but its meaningless. The game is over as soon as the last scum dies - he doesnt even have KP, how would he force mislynches until its 1v1? Its impossible with so many confirmed town.
what bugs me is that Qatol still lives. He is a med, why would scum/sk target Snarfs(confirmed vanilla) over a jailer(essentially a medic)?
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On May 26 2012 01:16 Mattchew wrote:
##vote barundar I was trying to figure out if he coulda been the traitor and we had to lynch him... since we do he's obvi vote today
Dude hes the SK (most likely)
I will post my thoughts on who the last scum and the traitor are tomorrow. Its late and I dont feel like typing out a long post now.
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On May 26 2012 02:03 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2012 01:16 Mattchew wrote:
##vote barundar I was trying to figure out if he coulda been the traitor and we had to lynch him... since we do he's obvi vote today
Dude hes the SK (most likely) I will post my thoughts on who the last scum and the traitor are tomorrow. Its late and I dont feel like typing out a long post now.
How about a preview so we have something to discuss?
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On May 26 2012 02:18 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2012 02:03 zelblade wrote:On May 26 2012 01:16 Mattchew wrote:
##vote barundar I was trying to figure out if he coulda been the traitor and we had to lynch him... since we do he's obvi vote today
Dude hes the SK (most likely) I will post my thoughts on who the last scum and the traitor are tomorrow. Its late and I dont feel like typing out a long post now. How about a preview so we have something to discuss?
Misder probably town. Only scineario where I would consider him not town was if he was traitor and last scum is RB. Unlikely.
I dont think Palmar or sandroba would take traitor because they dont seem to like playing scum and are much better at scum. Palmar is thus prolly green due to check. Sandroba possibly scum, didnt like what he was trying to do D1 with pushing marv.
Agreed with you on Toad.
Unsure on zeph as it is very risky to claim politician > VT like that if traitor/scum. Need to sleep on it.
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I'm about 100% sure toadestern is scum. Risk if you could be so kind and shoot him tonight so I don't have to read his nonsense anymore it would be much apreciated.
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On May 26 2012 03:53 sandroba wrote:
I'm about 100% sure toadestern is scum. Risk if you could be so kind and shoot him tonight so I don't have to read his nonsense anymore it would be much apreciated.
he is out of bullets afaik
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Oh yeah, I forgot being roleblocked uses up a shot (btw I don't think that makes sense, how can you spend your bullet if you are stuck at your house? =P). I don't think it's a risky move for zeph to RC politician>vanilla at that spot. He could easily be mafia (probably not traitor though), having really picked politician or having shot barundar and knowing that he is in fact sk. Now that I think about the night shots I feel it's a bit unlikely that palmar is scum. Palmar can only be scum if he took GF and claimed pardoner. But in that case mafia wouldn't shoot sloosh since he was useless at that point (I'm assuming mafia shot sloosh, because there were much juicier targets than snarfs for mafia to shoot like qatol). They probably would have shot qatol instead. So yeah I think zeph is mafia, toad is traitor.
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@Qatol Okay, but zelblade started saying there was some shenanigans with janitor pick in the top pretty early. If it was mafia's plan to use that as confusion I would expect much better reaction from sentinel. He pretty much started the topic about the janitor stuff. And he couldn't have know there was something going on with the janitor pick had he not tried for JOAT and why would he ever pick that if sentinel took it above him? I mean we seen senseless things in this game, but zelblade pretty much started the process of his teammate getting lynched and his buddy reacted poorly is too retarded to assume.
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I don't think being roleblocked normally uses up a shot. It was just that one scenario where chaoser made a mistake so to even things up he kept risk.nuke's shot.
I agree that Toad is most likely traitor. It makes sense for him not to want to lynch any of the three day 1 if he thinks there might be scum in there and he's trying to help them out.
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Roleblocking does not normally use up a shot. It only used up a shot in that circumstance earlier to even it up.
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On May 26 2012 01:14 Snarfs wrote:I think Toad's either the last mafia or a traitor. Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all (ie. you want them all to live so that the scum in the group doesn't get found out) Some of his reasons for not lynching into the group include: a) They could all be town b) If we mislynch we could potentially lose a strong blue role c) We get 0 information from the lynch d) It will cause confusion e) It's a 2/3 chance to lynch town for nothing f) even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now ?? This is full of contradiction: Show nested quote +I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy.
If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk.
I never like what he's doing. He would do what risk is doing in his position, but doesn't like what he's doing? Show nested quote +People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred".
Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!? This is just plain wrong. I don't really remember people claiming he has a townie mindset, nor that he is doing things for towncred. At this point, come tomorrow, I would prefer his lynch over anyone else who might seem scummy. It's too much of a stretch for me to believe that Toad actually thought all 3 of the people in that group could be town.
1) I said I think all 3 are town reads for me. Marv and Risk because they played like a townie and Sent because his action made no sense from a mafia point of vies (just like barundars...) so yeah, I thought it's possible that all 3 are townies early on which kind of changed but since I had townreads on all 3 of them I went with the one that had the weakest townreads, which was Risk.
Also I said all the time that a 1/3 chance to hit mafia is terribly bad and that my read (Sandroba) was at LEAST 50%. So you're wrong it's a combination of both. I thought my read is WAY better than a 1/3. Check my filter before telling people I just randomly tried to not lynch into one of the 3. I said that Sandroba is a way better lynch and tried to get people on him.
So that point is simply wrong, don't know if it's wrong on purpose or if you did that "case" by heart without actually checking me filter lol.
2) I would have done what I thought Risk did without voting sent. At that point in time I was hoping Risk had picked the janitor and didn't want to claim it to draw hits to himself instead of other people. So yeah if I was a Janitor in Risks position I'd definitely lie about it or at least not talk about it anymore after claiming that he / I did not follow the plan.
How is that a contradiction?
The reason I didn't like it was because he voted sent and I didn't believe he meant it because I gave him an about 50% to actually still have picked janitor.
The reason I said a Qatol (or anyone else) lynch was about as good is because we had had a game with 1 modkilled townie, 1 SK and mafias which means a 1/3 chance to hit mafia really was a true-rnd hit, especially if you take a traitor for granted like I did. That's 6 anti towns in a 19 player setup. That IS 1/3, which was the reason I said 1/3 is not good.
3) About the Townie mindset: Qatol pointed that out when he found one of my very early posts where I ask Sandroba if he got the Mason. That was well before people knew wether or not Sandroba and I got mason. That was a trap of mine and Qatol said it's looking nice if I remember correctly.
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Summary of why not a word in Snarfs case is actually true:
+ Show Spoiler [#1] +On May 16 2012 21:01 Toadesstern wrote:Yeah Mattchew gives a bad vibe but he usually does that as far as I can see. Too early to say something about him imo. Will comment on him the next 48-ish hours. Risk has basicly claimed traitor with his most reason post. Show nested quote +On May 16 2012 20:13 risk.nuke wrote:
So many plans, I'm going to think on this. I may or may not follow them. I may or may not tell you if I decide to follow them. Honestly though, your arguments arent nearly as persuasive as you think they are. Because the only reason to think of "town could lose before d3" as a not persuasive argument is if you are not town or if you are considering to pick Traitor. Not sure if Risk is smart enough to do that on purpose as a townie to lure mafias into picking Janitor when he really never considered to pick something else and only wanted to look like he is considering something else. Also take a look at how cocky he makes that sound. So really he either is a genius town right now who tries his best at wifom and uses fake-emotions on purpose to screw with mafia or he's mafia himself / willing to play mafia. Sandroba is usually a really smart man. A really really smart man. He destroys mafia within 2 cycles of a game or even within the first.That's the usual Sandroba So far what I saw from him pregame wasn't that smart as all because frankly he should have realized that making sure CPR is not in mafia hands has to be the #1 priority to at least have a chance as town. So those 2 are my biggest problem right now. Fancy conclusionSandroba looks really bad imo Risk either looks incredible good or incredible bad. Not sure which one but there's pretty much nothing inbetween. Prepost Edit: Oh and yeah. I said the rolecop looks more like a mafia role in this setup but given the situation I'd love a town rolecop to figure things out right now.
In short: Not sure what to make of risk, either good looking or bad looking at that point, it turned into good looking later on.
The important thing though is that I said Sandroba is my main mafia read and already gave him a somewhat good chance to flip mafia.
+ Show Spoiler [#2] +On May 17 2012 01:15 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 01:11 deconduo wrote:On May 17 2012 01:07 Toadesstern wrote:On May 17 2012 01:03 deconduo wrote:
I just realised it would be suicide for me or risk to pick traitor. 3rd pick RNGing between CPR/Janitor stops us from doing so as well as stopping us dropping the roles down. I hadn't really planned to take it, but its good that its definitely not an option now I suppose. exactly. If #3 is something other than VT we lynch into #1 or #2, depending on wether the coinflip made him pick CPR or janitor. So again, I really don't have a problem with talking about why traitor is a possibilty for both you and Risk, because we've got shitloads of reasons for you not to pick that will get both of you instalynched if you decide not to stick with the plan :p Yeah and so the only reasons for risk not to want the plan to succeed are: -He's town that wants to take traitor safely -He's scum that wants to be able to use janitor without getting lynched -He's SK that wants a better role than janitor or he's a townie trying to look like that and therefore making every other townie not choose traitor because he "is" already traitor. I don't care about his alignment, the moment we know he's not a janitor we lynch him and that's about him. No rolecop needed, no thing. It won't get any clearer.
In short: Me telling that I think Risk has a good chance to flip town and that decunduos post is missing important points.
(take into consideration, still pre-day1 and I was mad at risk at that point in time)
+ Show Spoiler [#3] +On May 17 2012 10:30 Toadesstern wrote:
That apparently makes Sandroba look way better considering it's a GM game.
Unless GM isn't ranking Sandro as a vet at all if he get's to be mafia.
But that sounds really far fetched so I'm just going to assume I was wrong on Sandroba right now.
In short: I still think Sandroba looks incredible bad but the decunduo flip made me rethink because usually GM doesn't rng the alignment as far as I know. I checked the OP later on and found him stating that he DID rng them, so I ignored that "conclusion" as it was wrong, but you can see I still think Sandroba is looking incredible bad or else I wouldn't say he's looking better if there was no reason to doubt him in the first place.
+ Show Spoiler [#4] +On May 18 2012 03:47 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok summary: We had a nice plan to deny mafia CPR although we have a dead mafia which is awesome, mafia probably still has the CPR and we don't know WHERE.
place 2, 3 and 4 all failed to do what they were supposed to do because although they all were fine with it before alignment went out.
Memo for myself: Next time suggest #1-4 CPR, #5-8 Janitor
That being said I like Qatol but I'm not really convinced by the case. Do you have someone else?
I'm think a Risk lynch would be nice to teach him a lesson on why you don't look scummy on purpose but I guess lynching into a null will get me as banned as he will be if he ends up being town.
So blue it is for now.
He's usually VERY MUCH in peoples faces and you can see that "pre-game" (before d1 started, not sure how to call it) but I don't see that right now. No "guuuuys, this guy is clearly town, this guy as well oooh and that guy over there as well. Not willing to lynch THAT" shenanigans at all.
##vote Blue
Sandro did you end up getting Mason? I did not go for it but didn't feel like telling you due to my read on you prior to the mattchew thing.
In short: Me laying a trap for Sandroba, aka I still think he's my best read while pressuring blue to get him posting.
+ Show Spoiler [#5] +On May 18 2012 05:08 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote:On May 18 2012 04:55 Toadesstern wrote:On May 18 2012 04:52 Toadesstern wrote:
Would a vig-role without a bullet left return "has a gun" to bullet-bob if he's a town-vig without a bullet left or would he return "has no gun" ?
Also I'd say risk is the liar and if he is he's town. which still means: I'd rather not lynch into any of those 3. Sentinel looks good without a doubt, so no lynching that. Risk and Marv are somewhat weird but with Sentinel's action I'm not 100% sure one of them has to be mafia. It could be 1-1 or 2-0 right now, maybe even 0-2 idk. No lynching them unless we have more information and more analysis about them. what possible town motivation could there be for sent's claim if he is lying. what possible town motivation would there be for risk or marv to hide the fact they picked a role that withholds info from basically only town (other than roles maybe, but knowing the alignments is way more important imo) I don't think sent is lying because he's busted if he does as mafia. We can confirm that really easy within 1 or 2 days. So for me it's more about the question wether or not he would have a reason to lie as mafia and I don't see that happening. For risk and marv it's a bit complicated but there are a bunch of good reasons to lie as a townie in that situation if you ARE the janitor. Janitor is COMPLETLY useless for town so you might as well lie (read: "hey guys I don't have janitor and I am #2 or #3 so I've probably got a REALLY AWESOME BLUE POWER" ) to draw some hits because getting the janitor out of the game is all we wanted to achieve and if one of them is town and already managed to do that they're happy. If they can "protect" another guy who is very likely to be shot early on due to awesome blue role or awesome mafia sKiLlZ that's awesome for town. So yes, I see a lot of reasons for them to lie as town. Could be wrong which brings me to the point: Leave them alive, I want to figure out what's going on in that constellation rather than just randomly lynching into them, having a coinflip on wether or not we hit mafia and on top of that gain 0 (!!!!) information because everyone would be like "duuuh, that's a mess" if one of them flipped town or "nice hit" if one of them flipped mafia. Noone is willing to lynch them because of analysis. People want to lynch them because of bullshit they haven't figured out yet.
In short: Me pointing out I'm not convinced one has to be mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 18 2012 06:40 Toadesstern wrote:
Qatol what's your opinion on Sandro?
Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well.
I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now but the decunduo flip really doesn't fit that read.
Not that I think a Sandro + decunduo mafia team should be considered imba (at all) but it doesn't really fit.
Qatol was very open when disagreeing with Sandroba before and while drafting and told us exactly where Sandroba was wrong in his (and my) opinion, yet he never said Sandroba is scummy.
Now look at what Decunduo did: He posted no walls of text like Sandro did. He basicly agreed with it in a very useless fashion but he disagreed with Sandroba. He as well never said Sandroba is looking weird for it, too.
However, given the flip don't you think he usually would have done it?
Decunduo was mafia. He had all the reasons to say Sandroba looks weird after how I and ESPECIALLY after how Qatol dismanteled Sandroba in a way everyone agreed. What Qatol did was very clear, he explained his thoughts and why what Sandroba said is wrong and both know that Sandroba is a monster as town.
So why didn't Decundo drop the m-word? Again, he had all the reasons to just say he thinks Sandroba looks weird but didn't,
I think Sandroba is the best lynch for today and we need to get people like blue in here, which is the reason I voted him but I should have done so earlier and clearly a pressure vote at this point of time is not going to help anymore so I'm taking it off blue.
If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today imo if it weren't for the dayvig that's confusing me SO HARD....
I'm just going to quote here:
Qatol what's your opinion on Sandro?
Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well.
I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now...[...]
If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today
and you're telling me I didn't think Sandro was a good target snarfs? lol...
+ Show Spoiler [#6] +On May 18 2012 07:02 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 06:59 sandroba wrote:
@Toad What exactly is your reasoning for me being mafia? You keep saying I look weird and I'm scummy but you don't provide any reasoning. And because I didn't agree on the cpr thing being denied is not a good reason, but I'm not going to get into that, because I don't wanna flood the thread with obsolete discussion.
So the facts we got so far are the following:
Risk claims he didn't try for janitor. I know you said you wouldn't, but can you explain why, since you posted that you thought that role was worth denying?
Marvelocity claims he didn't go for janitor nor cpr. Again, why is that?
Sentinel claims he tryed janitor and didn't get it, thus vanilla. A role or bulletbill check could work in his case, narrowing it down to marv or risk, or finding out he is mafia. My reasoning for you being scummy is that you are usually a very smart man but so far I haven't read anything smart yet. And yes I would consider what you posted so far as not-smart-at-all.  @2nd paragraph: And if mafia has a framer we're screwed big time. See what I am referring to when I said you are usually a smart man?
In short: Yet another post about how I think Sandroba is the scummiest guy around
+ Show Spoiler [#7] +On May 18 2012 08:32 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 08:22 Toadesstern wrote:On May 18 2012 08:02 sandroba wrote:
I actually think no lynching might be the best choice. becaaaause? just to make it clear because apparently people (hint: marv) are not getting what I am talking about when I am not explaining it explicitly and while I usually do that on purpose it's 1:30 am right now for me, so no time for games. I was referring to this one: Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 02:08 sandroba wrote:
I would totally pick cpr. Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum. Trust me it's more effective to leave it up for grabs. Mafia can't pick it safely, they might end up vanilla. You are the guy who says "give me KP and I'll give you dead scum". You are the guy who thinks CPR doc is equally good in towns hand because it's an infinite bullet vig. Clearly you don't want a noob to take it but someone like you would be really good with a CPR. Clearly you know that you tend to die early a lot if you are mafia. Remember saying something along the lines of "I'm sick of getting shot n1 as town" when we hydraed? Your train of though is just way off. 1) You want CPR to shoot n1, because apparently you die early A LOT as townie and if you don't shoot n1 what's the point of infinite vig because you usually get shot as townie n1 or n2. 2) You don't want noobs to get the CPR (I hope) because noone wants another AC happening. 3) Yet you still say it's incredible powerful due to the fact that it's infinite bullets which is just not adding up considering what I just said. 4) And you get in here telling us that we should no lynch now because you are apparently not sure at all about people. What happened to the guy "give me CPR and I'll give you a dead mafia" down the road? What happened to "cpr is awesome for town as well", what's the reasoning behind thinking CPR is awesome for town. How is that guy town.
In short: Yet another explanation why I think Sandroba is the scummiest guy around. The two posts before that were the same but those were 2-liners without explanation in detail why Sandroba is mafia.
+ Show Spoiler [#8] +On May 18 2012 09:38 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 09:37 Bluelightz wrote:
My suspicions on Bottom 10:
Misder has only 1 pager of filter and has done little to no scum hunting.
Please, feel free to request me for more opinions. vote Sandroba and you're fine :3 Reasoning has been given.
In short: Telling people to vote Sandroba instead
+ Show Spoiler [#9] +On May 18 2012 09:46 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote:I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first.+ Show Spoiler +
Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal?
Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor?
Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke?
Reasoning being that you want us to blindly lynch into one of three, potentially loosing a really strong blue if we mislynch because they're so high in the drafts when it is REALLY easy to just wait a day about those 3 and have way more information to get a better lynch? This guy might be an alternative to blue as a Plan-B lynch but I like going for the perfect / best possible lynch d-1.
In short: Me telling people that a 1/3 hit is not better than true rnd unless you make an educated guess. I had townreads on all 3 of them (risk and marv because of play, sent because of the weird action), therefore it was true-rnd for me. Therefore it is a Plan-B lynch for me because the chance to hit mafia were really low from my point of view.
Didn't realize janitor can't make the flip dissappear d1 and although it only was able to do it d2 or later.
Hinthint: I didn't even read the role and didn't know how it works. Surely a mafia would know such a thing.
+ Show Spoiler [#10+#11] +On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote:
the last red part obviously was mafia = town. 5 am in the morning here and I'm sleepy...
But still I don't get why one could possible consider into lynching a three way. That's straight up the worst move you can do as town unless you really get lucky and hit mafia, but if that's the reasoning we might as well policy lynch Palmar and hope for hitting mafia although he's a complete null so far.
If we lynch into a townie out of Risk / marv / sent, which is pretty likely we still have 2 people left, gave mafia aobut 3 or 4 free dead townies considering the setup and have one more turn or we're really screwed while still being at 50/50. Well not exactly, we know what's going on by then because it's d2 but we would know what's going on even without lynching into the townie.
So why do people want to take a 2/3 chance to lynch into a townie for NOTHING. 0 information, 0 reads, A LOT of people all thinking someone else is the most likely mafia and people consider lynching the guy who is the least likely a PR (read = a townie VT...) to not hurt town when hitting into townies.
How is that an argument for a lynch. We don't lynch a townie who is the least hurtful if lynched. That's not an argument for a lynch. We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...
Annyone voting marv / risk / sent needs to unvote them and consider someone else. I'd love to see sandro dead but anyone other than those 3 is a better lynch candidate. Hell even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy.
If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.
A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK...
might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else.
Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra.
That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.
Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched.
In short: Me telling people that I think we have better options around (hint: Sandroba or sheeping Qatol)
+ Show Spoiler [#12] +On May 18 2012 13:30 Toadesstern wrote:Ok I'm really at a lose of word right now and I'm tired so one last try to get you people off those 3: Consider my reads from C9++. That's what I had on d1 in C9++ #2 + Show Spoiler [picture] +Hinthint: Every town read was right. Mafia team ended up being VE + foru + Ace.Here's my sheet considering those 3: + Show Spoiler [picture] +Yes I'm that awesome now please just trust me for once. Marv and Senti both are looking really townish and I REALLY doubt they have a chance to flip mafia right now. Marv is ACTIVLY asking me ALL THE TIME what I am talking about when I am not explaining my thoughts. That looks a lot like a towny who's ACTIVLY trying to figure out what's going on in peoples head. That's one of the biggest town tells in the game. Could it be faked by a good mafia? Hell yeah, it's d1, but I have no reason to believe so yet. Senti claimed VT who tried to pick Janitor. Think about the situation. Would a mafia claim that? Both Risk and Marv claimed they are not janitor. If we somehow figure out they really aren't he is INSTA-BUSTED. If he is mafia he shoveld his own grave with this action. Not today but d2 or d3 because if we find out about one of Risk / Marv being janitor (which is highly likely) he is insta-dead. High risk of dying for mafia, about 0 gain. IF sent is mafia he went for a 1:1 trade with that statement. I am more than happy to take that trade, because we WILL figure that out soon enough without having to randomly lynch into one of those. Risk is looking somewhat townish but he might as well be yellow. That's the one read I'm not sure about but I'm not willing to lynch into a yellow read either. THE ONLY THING people are talking about are the lies. Liar doesn't mean mafia. I caught VE lieing in my first 30-man game. He claimed day-vig d1 in a game with an election and it was obvious to me that he was a liar and I was right about it. I came to the conclusion that he has to be a mafia because of that, which was completly bullshit. He lied because he wanted to win the election for mayor because he knew his own alignment and thought a 100% proven town as mayor is better han a somewhat proven player who's a vet (VE wasn't considered a vet back then). Long story short: Someone lying doesn't mean they have to be mafia all the time, especially if they have a good reason to lie about it and you ALWAYS have a good to lie about your role. ALWAYS. I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy. If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk. I never like what he's doing. About the same situation for marv. Fancy conclusion:I'm not even sure if one of them is mafia. Yeah it could be one of them is mafia but it's not bound to be like people said. If sent would have picked something else it would have been a whole other situation and THAT's why people started voting them because people misunderstood what sent said. Now that sent cleared those things up it should be clear that neither of them makes a good d1 lynch.
In short: Telling people to just believe me once and vote who I think to be mafia instead (that's Sandroba)
+ Show Spoiler [#13] +On May 18 2012 13:33 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 13:12 PaqMan wrote:On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy.
If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.
A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK...
might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else.
Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra.
That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.
Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched. That idea is also as bad as a policy lynch. You're telling us to waste time coming up with reasons why two other people ARE NOT scum, instead of actual scum hunting. I don't see where you're coming from. I think there is a very good chance one of them three are scum and I'm going to push it. You're basically telling us that unless that person is guaranteed scum, we shouldn't lynch him. Which is impossible to do on D1. On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote:
We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...
1/3 is a really high chance of hitting scum considering the fact that there are 14 other townies here. You're getting an award for this. 1/4 is true random lynch, aka a lynch into someone without a second of a though done by a random generator. Yes 1/3 TRUELY are aweome odds... And no I am telling you to only lynch people when you are AT LEAST (!!!!!) 50% certain they'll flip mafia. Everything else is a mislynch.
In short: Me teling people my lynch is AT LEAST 50% while the other lynch is a 1/3.
+ Show Spoiler [#14] +On May 18 2012 14:09 Toadesstern wrote:
Next question for everyone: If you consider them all about equally scummy (1/3)
What are you going to do if the flip ends up being without alignment / role due to the janitor? Go on lynching the other 2 as well?
There's just a shitload of reasons not to lynch into those 3 until we're at least somewhat certain on who out of those 3 (if at all) is mafia.
Again me not knowing how that role works, aka I haven't even read it lol.
+ Show Spoiler [#15] +On May 19 2012 02:01 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 01:20 zelblade wrote:
So Toad if that is what you think why is your vote on sentinel? Theres several hours left, use it to convince people (well or try to) to actually vote for who you think is scum?
Also Palmar please dont use the pardoner power especially today. Whilst it possible the situation gets handled at night I dont want the flips to get covered assuming that janitor is in the game, and if all 3 are left alive the same shit will happen tomorrow. I tried to do that yesterday and Sandro ended up putting me on his ignore list agreeing with me and voting for senti as well while saying "we probably should no-lynch thought" hinthint: it's the same sandro that says stuff like Show nested quote +[23.04.2012 19:19:06] Sandro Maculan: hmm yeah it might be
[23.04.2012 19:19:14] Sandro Maculan: it's non optimal though
[23.04.2012 19:19:27] Sandro Maculan: i really like to optimize stuff
[23.04.2012 19:19:31] Sandro Maculan: specially day'
[23.04.2012 19:19:33] Sandro Maculan: 1 But yeah, whatever, lynching a modconfirmed townie obviously is optimal play d1 and if that's not possible one should nolynch instead. Very much optimal play in my book as well.
In short: Me trying a last time to get people to vote Sandroba instead.
Snarfs are you making things up or didn't you read my filter before making that "case?"
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Woah, where's all this sandroba stuff coming from Toad.
Allow me to patronize you as you're clearly patronizing me:
+ Show Spoiler [My points on Toad] +On May 26 2012 01:14 Snarfs wrote:I think Toad's either the last mafia or a traitor. Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all (ie. you want them all to live so that the scum in the group doesn't get found out) Some of his reasons for not lynching into the group include: a) They could all be town b) If we mislynch we could potentially lose a strong blue role c) We get 0 information from the lynch d) It will cause confusion e) It's a 2/3 chance to lynch town for nothing f) even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now ?? This is full of contradiction: Show nested quote +I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy.
If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk.
I never like what he's doing. He would do what risk is doing in his position, but doesn't like what he's doing? Show nested quote +People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred".
Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!? This is just plain wrong. I don't really remember people claiming he has a townie mindset, nor that he is doing things for towncred. At this point, come tomorrow, I would prefer his lynch over anyone else who might seem scummy. It's too much of a stretch for me to believe that Toad actually thought all 3 of the people in that group could be town.
IN SHORT: Me saying Toad is traitor or scum because one would have to try really hard not to think in order to actually believe that all 3 of risk.nuke, marv and Sentinel could have been town.
On May 26 2012 06:44 Toadesstern wrote:
Snarfs are you making things up or didn't you read my filter before making that "case?"
Thanks for the attempt at misrepresenting me, yet again. I'm not sure if it's because you lack a certain mastery of the english language, you're just being a jerk, or you are actually scum, but at least have the courtesy to address what I actually said. Of course I read your novel of a filter before posting. Do you think I want to sound like an idiot?
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On May 26 2012 08:47 Snarfs wrote:Woah, where's all this sandroba stuff coming from Toad. Allow me to patronize you as you're clearly patronizing me: + Show Spoiler [My points on Toad] +On May 26 2012 01:14 Snarfs wrote:I think Toad's either the last mafia or a traitor. Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all (ie. you want them all to live so that the scum in the group doesn't get found out) Some of his reasons for not lynching into the group include: a) They could all be town b) If we mislynch we could potentially lose a strong blue role c) We get 0 information from the lynch d) It will cause confusion e) It's a 2/3 chance to lynch town for nothing f) even Qatol would be a better lynch candidate than those 3 although he's looking pretty townish right now ?? This is full of contradiction: Show nested quote +I am pretty certain if I was a towny in Risks position and I picked janitor I would lie about it as well and I would vote sent as well. I have no idea why that is supposed to be scummy.
If risk IS a janitor he's probably town. If he's not he's probably not. I don't know wether or not he's a janitor yet but I think I understand what he's doing, therefore the lightish-green color and it makes sense, although I don't really like it, but that's risk.
I never like what he's doing. He would do what risk is doing in his position, but doesn't like what he's doing? Show nested quote +People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred".
Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!? This is just plain wrong. I don't really remember people claiming he has a townie mindset, nor that he is doing things for towncred. At this point, come tomorrow, I would prefer his lynch over anyone else who might seem scummy. It's too much of a stretch for me to believe that Toad actually thought all 3 of the people in that group could be town. : Me saying Toad is traitor or scum because one would have to try really hard not to think in order to actually believe that all 3 of risk.nuke, marv and Sentinel could have been town. Show nested quote +On May 26 2012 06:44 Toadesstern wrote:
Snarfs are you making things up or didn't you read my filter before making that "case?" Thanks for the attempt at misrepresenting me, yet again. I'm not sure if it's because you lack a certain mastery of the english language, you're just being a jerk, or you are actually scum, but at least have the courtesy to address what I actually said. Of course I read your novel of a filter before posting. Do you think I want to sound like an idiot?
Are you kidding me?
Here's what you posted:
Mainly because on day 1 he was trying to find any reason possible not to lynch Sentinel (or anyone in the group at all). Many of which included trying to explain how all 3 could be town. I could understand not wanting to lynch into them because you think you have a better scum target, but trying to explain that all 3 could be town seems to come from a different mindset. This only makes sense if you don't want to start lynching into the group at all
You're telling me what I did is scummy because I did it only thinking those 3 are town. Yes I did think those 3 are townish early on but that's not the reason I wanted someone else lynched. I did it because I thought Sandro has a 50-80% chance to flip mafia at d1. I still think so because he did multiple thinks he considers BAD for town, things he would NEVER do himself as a townie according to our skype conversation. Either he lied to me in skype or he's mafia.
Secondly I said the beginnging of d1 that I thought all three are town. Once I realized sent was above 3 votes I realized that this is not what I thought it would be and one of them had to be mafia. Still I had a townread on all 3 of them which means one of those reads had to be wrong, which is the reason I went with the weakest townread when I failed to get you voting Sandroba instead. So no, again wrong: In the end I no longer thought all 3 are townies. That was only my first impression when they both "casually" had about 2 votes that meant nothing.
So basicly, as already pointed out your 2 basic points of your case are made up and just not true at all.
Anyways that's it for me. I have no idea why people think I'm mafia at all and snarfs makes some things up I don't even begin to understand. The only reasonable thing that was said about me is that I was wrong about a townread on d1. Yeah I agree, that hasn't happened FOR AGES when I was town but everyone can be wrong sometimes. Last time I was wrong like that was AC...., every other game was at least 50% mafia caught d1 as town, so I get why people don't trust me I guess.
Last 2 mafias (mafia + traitor) are Sandroba + one of zelblade or Zephird. I think looking into people who voted barundar early on isn't actually bad considering anyone taking a second of a thought should have realized that lynching hiro first is the way to go with barundar counterclaiming although it wasn't right.
I pointed that out first, Snarfs pointed it out again, Marv agreed and Qatol pointed it out again and agreed to everything that was said about hiro being the better lynch option at that point in time.
So there was no reason to actually think barundar is the better lynch option from a townie perspective, at all.
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