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On May 25 2012 16:35 syllogism wrote:
But if you hit harimoto and they don't hit you, you win right there. I don't think it is a reasonable assumption that the other team wouldn't shoot when there were only 4 players alive (I assume that was the case, I wasn't following closely), but if that's what you assumed that's fine then.
No, if I hit Harimoto and they don't hit me, I arrive at 2-1 LYLO with town.
However, just because Yokoya used their KP, it would have proven Katina's theory right (that I'm scum that has a hidden KP to use and made that plan on Day 8 to win instantly).
I could have convinced MZ that sloosh was Yokoya, but Katina's theory plus the KP would have hindered me too much I think.
I kind of knew the other team would shoot me. Therefore I knew I already lost.
However, just in case they didn't, I decided to plan for that 2-1-1 situation which I preferred rather than the 2-1 situation.
Also, again, remember I thought sloosh was Harimoto >_>. I thought that if I shot sloosh and he had flipped Harimoto, it would have been kind of impossible for me to convince MZ that ET was Yokoya out of all people (because of his Day 4 panic to get chaoser lynched).
So from my POV a 2-1 with me/MZ/ET with ET as town would have been very hard, at least compared to a 2-1-1, so I choose not to shoot.
EDIT: Hey people, I know I write A LOT in QTs and such, but that's why I made the effort of labelling each cycle in it (by writing "***** Night 2 *****" and stuff), so at least give me that 
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Comments
Mafia is a game of paradoxes: the more innocent someone appears at first glance, not in a 'hes so townie' way but 'hes probably not mafia,' that's a good indication they are mafia. Similarly, in most cases someone who appears so unbelievably guilty yet isn't giving up is almost always going to be a townie.
HOLY CRAP I am so glad to see something like this written down in print. When I play town, I'm often accused and sometimes get votes stacked on me; as scum I rarely do. It's so strange.
Gonzaw.... I regret not contacting you and soft claiming scum to you, as I did to MZ (you probably have 1 KP left, right?). We could've had a joint mafia victory; if we had shot both the remaining townies, we would've been 1-1 with no KP left, and won a joint victory. I asked Protact. A joint victory would've been so beautiful T_T I'm happy that I was able to read you as scum in the end, but still, it could've been different. Gonzaw was really the only uninvited player? O.o wow, great choice hosts. Gonzaw is one of my favorite players to play with these days; whether he's town or scum, it's always a wild ride.
My Team
Thanks to my team, sandroba and Palmar. Though sandroba got outted hella early and Palmar couldn't keep up his act for too long, they set me up pretty well for a strong endgame scenario. Since they both have big repuations as scumhunters as opposed to me, I was more easily able to slip by and insert myself in circles.
We didn't plan NEARLY as much as Yokoya, leading to a few mishaps (3 stacked votes on Yes, Palmar dying), but we were cohesive, fulfilled our pre-determined roles, and they both gave me solid advice when I asked for it. I worked hard at keeping sandroba alive, though it was due to dumb luck that he was able to live on a few of the times. His secret alliance helped us inordinately, as it's now clear that it's because of that interaction that gonzaw was off my trail for ages. Palmar successfully distracted town D1, and somehow swayed things D3/4 in his favor despite the fact that he should've been scrutinized to shit by then. I thank them for our victory.
Apologies
Apologies to Cephiro and the hosts for saying the things I did. For a while around then, I had been dealing with personal problems (along with the looming threat of finals), so, being high strung as it is, I overreacted to things that I shouldn't have. I do respect you as a player Cephiro and I bet you're a fine dude too, so I hope we'll be able to play more games together where A. I'm not scum against you and B. I don't act like a dick.
Also, apologies to Ace when I said he was being a scummy troll. I just said what I did so that I wouldn't have to regard your death much when we shot you :D
Shout-outs
Credit to Katina for sort of catching me D1. I gained a lot of respect for Katina this game, as TBH I had always found Katina to be insightful, but not nearly vindictive enough. This game, she was pretty accurate in some of her reads, and if she was able to form stronger alliances later on after Foolishness died, she could've helped town to victory.
Credit to the Yokoya team for some INSANE plans. Chaoser also saw me as scum, but luckily for me, he and BC were under more scrutiny at the time. I already said some words on gonzaw, more so in PMs; this is a guy who will go all out as scum or as town. Watch out for him, he'll be big.
Credit to Foolishness for strong reads as usual, catching chaoser/BC fairly early. There was a reason that he had to be shot immediately after.
My Play
My game obviously had holes in it, but my biggest improvement was in my PM game. WBG can attest to this; in the very previous game I had (Space Station Mafia), I was hesitant to provide reads, slipped information, and was scummy as shit in PM land. This game, I pushed plans, made alliances, and forged trust through PMs. This was one of the sole reasons that WBG that I was town, and I'm happy that I was able to make such a shift. I put a LOT of time into my PMs, making sure to not slip egregiously, and subtly trying to find ways to keep my mates alive while killing others.
+ Show Spoiler [PMs with VE] +I don't know if anyone noticed, but I PM'd VE right before he died to ask him if he "truly thought sandroba was scum". I did this for 2 reasons: 1. I could use his logic as a reason for me to support sandroba later on, and 2. I wanted to ensure VE would put votes on Sandroba. VE had hinted that he thought sandroba was town; by me talking to VE about this, VE started to see me as scum. Therefore, I hoped that my skepticism of his sandroba read would in-fact lead him to saving him for me. VE was correct in noticing that my PMs to him were a tad scummy, but he didn't realize that that was my intent 
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Wiggles gambit] +The reason why I did the desparation blitz on Wiggles was two fold. One, I had called Wiggles town for a long time, so just letting him die like a dingus would've been both rude and uncharacteristic. Second, it's a common thing I do as town; I did it both in Surprisingly Normal VII, and in TL Mafia LI, to incorrect ends.
In SNMM VII, I changed my mind rapidly and swapped the vote to Mattchew, causing town to lose the game. In TL LI, I rapidly changed my mind to try and save VE, even though he was actually scum. I figured it was a good move because 1. it's something I do, and 2. if I'm wrong, then it's fine; we proceed to lynch Wiggles and I go "shit guys, I'm so bad at town LOL", and if I'm right, then I say "SEEEE!! HE WAS TOWN". Win/Win
My reads were mediocre. I recognized BC and Chaoser as scum, but that was pretty much after they had been prodded out by more knowledgeable townies than myself. I genuinely thought Sheth, then Cephiro were scum. In late game though, I am pretty proud of my gonzaw read. I didn't quite recognize the chaoser connection, but I noticed that 1. he flip flopped on sloosh with a really bad case (read: illogical) 2. trusted me pretty quickly, when he knows that I can play a dangerous scum game and 3. pushed forth a quick kill plan. It wasn't much, but it was enough for me to have the confidence to shoot him.
In a lot of ways, my biggest strength as a mafia player is my ability to talk the talk. I rarely rely on gambits or lies in my play, which does mean I have less options than a player like gonzaw or perhaps BC, but I always rely on solid, solid logic; I think that is why I don't get figured out as scum often, because I make focused, logical cases that I could easily do as a townie. However, there are always little discrepancies that I'm trying to stamp out with difficulty; in this game, it was quite clearly my link to sandroba. What I need to improve on is to be able to walk the walk; my reads are really, really bad, to be frank, whether I'm trying to find scum or snipe blues. It helps my scum play because I'm used to being wrong on lynches, but damn, I wish I could make reads like you guys.
MUCH THANKS to Ver and Incognito for keeping up with us for 9 long days. The set up was great and I had a blast playing. Hope to be playing in more Protactinium Productions in the future ^^
-ET
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Wait...you actually wanted a joint scum victory? (or a draw?) >_>
I just assumed that if I tried to contact the other scum to "forge a draw", they'd stab me in the back by shooting me while I shot the other townie as planned
Also, WHAT ABOUT SANDRO OUTING PALMAR TO US!!!?
Seriously, that fucked up my entire game, I need to know!
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Uh, I'm not sure what you're talking about with the sandro outting palmar thing. My team pretty much acted like three lone rangers who met up at the pub during the night time to discuss stuff. Therefore I don't fully know what sandroba did in PMs, or what his intent was. What do you mean that "palmar outting sandroba" means you thought I was confirmed town?
Haha gonzaw, that is actually the exact reason why I didn't just claim scum directly through thread or PM; I feared being backstabbed. However, considering our relationship from previous games and since you and I had been controlling the game since D3ish, I thought you would welcome a joint victory. You were the only player of the other 2 that I would've trusted to not backstab me.
Unfortunately, I didn't fully think things through; I could've soft claimed to you (1 kp left, or 1 of 3 kp left or something like that), but since I had already done that to MZ I didn't feel like risking it again. I shot you because 1. I though you were scum and knew that if you shot, I had to shoot or I'd be disadvantaged no matter what (you would dictate the next day). and 2. You were starting to call me scum. I knew that if I shot you, that sloosh was on my side, so I could win in a 2-1 scenario easily.
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I posted the PM convo between chaoser and sandro in the last page.
Basically, sandro claimed Palmar was scum to chaoser to convince chaoser to give Palmar 5 votes.
I thought:
If ET is scum, then he would know prplhz would give Palmar 5 votes, and sandro would surely know that as well. With Palmar at 5 votes, and sandro giving him 1, he would be at 6 votes. That would basically mean he's safe from the lynch, specially if Wiggles/chaoser receive few votes.
Therefore, if ET is scum, there would be no reason for sandro to beg chaoser to give Palmar 5 votes, therefore there would be no reason for sandro to out Palmar as his scumbuddy to chaoser.
sandro outed Palmar as his scumbuddy to chaoser
Reductio ad absurdum: ET is town.
So I basically thought you were like confirmed town because of that, which basically lead me into thinking sloosh was scum.
EDIT: Yeah, but I thought sloosh was scum and maybe he would have stabbed me in the back >_>
Also, I did notice you desperately trying to save Wiggles on Day 4. I thought that if you were scum, then that was obviously intentional to get chaoser to die alone.
sandro would give chaoser 4 votes, but if you convinced me/MZ to give Wiggles 6 votes, he'd be the sole lynch (since you knew prplhz would give Palmar 5 votes).
After I figured that out, I knew that if you were scum, then you basically tricked us into getting chaoser lynched >_>
I wouldn't have trusted you at all if you wanted to convince me to "joint win" if you claimed scum to me, because I knew you were trying to fuck with us since Day 4 >_>
Granted, you didn't think I was scum at that point, you most likely thought it was Cephiro so you thought "Hey, I can fuck up with Cephiro I don't care!" or something
Also again, I also thought you were town because at one point I was analysing the voting patterns and saw that if you were Harimoto all 3 of you would have voted the same on day 3.
After that I basically said "Nah that's very unlikely, I'll just assume he's town for now"...
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Hrmph. Sandroba probably remembers this more vividly than I do, but I think our thought process was:
1. Not sure if prplhz lying. Sure he was supporting Palmar hard, but you can never be too careful. More vote for Palmar = thumbs up
2. I think sandroba wanted to gain chaoser's trust? So doing a vote trade was a good way of doing that, and Palmar was the only one who needed that.
3. we also humored the idea of suddenly betraying chaoser and letting chaoser/wiggles get double killed. we weren't able to pull this off, but we needed more votes on Palmar at least.
4. we didn't think it mattered if he knew it was Palmar, since we thought the remaining scum team was Cephiro and Chaoser, both people with 0 town cred.
Edit: The reason why I did the desparation blitz on Wiggles was two fold. One, I had called Wiggles town for a long time, so just letting him die like a dingus would've been both rude and uncharacteristic. Second, it's a common thing I do as town; I did it both in Surprisingly Normal VII, and in TL Mafia LI, to incorrect ends.
In SNMM VII, I changed my mind rapidly and swapped the vote to Mattchew, causing town to lose the game. In TL LI, I rapidly changed my mind to try and save VE, even though he was actually scum. I figured it was a good move because 1. it's something I do, and 2. if I'm wrong, then it's fine; we proceed to lynch Wiggles and I go "shit guys, I'm so bad at town LOL", and if I'm right, then I say "SEEEE!! HE WAS TOWN". Win/Win
Any thoughts/comments on my analysis/play is welcomed ^^
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So it wasn't planned then?
Well, at least I'll feel better that you guys didn't trick me since the beginning >_>
EDIT: Hey Cephiro, you told me that you were playing like you did because you had some "plans" or something, but you didn't have any town cred later so you couldn't implement them.
...what were these "plans" of yours? Because...I don't think they were worth the risk of acting like that and basically being the 4th scum from both scumteams >_>
EDIT:
On May 25 2012 17:26 EchelonTee wrote:
we also humored the idea of suddenly betraying chaoser and letting chaoser/wiggles get double killed. we weren't able to pull this off, but we needed more votes on Palmar at least.
Yeah you did >_>
I mean, had you NOT tried to save Wiggles, then Wiggles would have died with 2 votes (Cephiro's 2 votes)
Also, how could you get Wiggles/chaoser double killed if you wanted to give Wiggles 6 votes? >_>
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Wait:
From ET
Gonzaw.... I regret not contacting you and soft claiming scum to you, as I did to MZ (you probably have 1 KP left, right?). We could've had a joint mafia victory; if we had shot both the remaining townies, we would've been 1-1 with no KP left, and won a joint victory
as I did to MZ (you probably have 1 KP left, right?)
*MZ goes and FoSes sloosh, lets ET get into minority*
...wat
lol MZ, ET soft-claimed scum to you, and you still thought he was town on D9
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LMAO, how could I have planned something like that man? We thought that the remaining scum were Cephiro and Chaoser. Like I said, I'm not the gambit man... though I might become inspired by your play :p And we just got "lucky" on the 3vote that one day; it was an accident.
If I had to name one criticism about you, it's that you think way too convoluted-ly sometimes XD
In actuality though, you had a solid game and it was with a few hints of luck and some endgame shenanigans that you weren't able to win.
Keep it in mind though; next time we end up in a dual faction game, if you think we're both scum, let's go for the joint win > : )
And dude, talking through edits is so confusing LOL. Slow it down bro.
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Also yeah, insane credits to Katina.
I didn't really thought any townie would have figured that out about my plan on D8, she doing so surprised me (so much that I thought she was Harimoto because of it >_>).
Granted, had she been in the "loop" she may have thought I was town (I tried to plant the idea of making that triple-kill to MZ and perhaps ET since quite a while ago), but still, pretty impressive.
Not only that, but she correctly called out:
-chaoser
-BC
-Palmar
-ET at one point (I think)
-sandro I think
Like...she correctly called out all 6 scum. You just need to be more active so people don't find you suspicious for a while, and damn you'll just roll over scum every time from now on (you did something similar on LI where you correctly deduced Toad and VE were scumbuddies).
Insane kudos for that (and again...ignore everything I said in the scum QT >_> )
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On May 25 2012 17:34 EchelonTee wrote:
LMAO, how could I have planned something like that man? We thought that the remaining scum were Cephiro and Chaoser. Like I said, I'm not the gambit man... though I might become inspired by your play :p And we just got "lucky" on the 3vote that one day; it was an accident.
If I had to name one criticism about you, it's that you think way too convoluted-ly sometimes XD
In actuality though, you had a solid game and it was with a few hints of luck and some endgame shenanigans that you weren't able to win.
Keep it in mind though; next time we end up in a dual faction game, if you think we're both scum, let's go for the joint win > : )
And dude, talking through edits is so confusing LOL. Slow it down bro.
Well...I was always paranoid that you guys figured out I was scum on Day 4 (by checking ALL THE THINGS I've done previous to save chaoser for instance >_> ), and planned that to make me think ET was town
Well, sandro, I don't know why you outed Palmar to chaoser but it just completely fucked me up (added to your "All 3 vote the same" thing).
Damn, at least it was VERY fun coming up with all those plans and gambits
I think that I, like, came up with 1 plan per Day or something
So fun.
And dude, talking through edits is so confusing LOL. Slow it down bro.
lol.
Well, either that or I have to 1000-ple post
EDIT: Arggh! So many 's !!!!
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Yeah Katina was on me in the early game, but luckily attention was diverted away. If she gains a bit more of that Palmar-asshole edge, she'll be great ^^ also, LOL at that pants-on-head pic.
Everyone thought sandro was scum so w.e LOL
Gonzaw, why didn't you try and work with me when it was 2-1-1? The fact that MZ and sloosh talked things over with me showed me that they were trying to find the last townie, but when you suddenly thought I was scum, it scared me and caused me to re-analyze you.
My pms to you three that night were
MZ: "why you want a draw? you probably have 1 KP left (soft claim, only scum team would proabably recognize). why not go for win?"
sloosh: "did Katina tell you that she planned to save you? were you in Pm contacts with her?"
Gonzaw: "...... you scum? you trusted me way too fast"
I was slightly apprehensive to all of you, but only gonzaw bit back :p
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On May 25 2012 17:41 EchelonTee wrote:
Yeah she was on me in the early game, but luckily attention was diverted away. If she gains a bit more of that Palmar-asshole edge, she'll be great ^^ also, LOL at that pants-on-head pic.
Everyone thought sandro was scum so w.e LOL
Gonzaw, why didn't you try and work with me when it was 2-1-1? The fact that MZ and sloosh talked things over with me showed me that they were trying to find the last townie, but when you suddenly thought I was scum, it scared me and caused me to re-analyze you.
My pms to you three that night were
MZ: "why you want a draw? you probably have 1 KP left (soft claim, only scum team would proabably recognize). why not go for win?
sloosh: "did Katina tell you that she planned to save you? were you in Pm contacts with her?"
Gonzaw: "...... you scum? you trusted me way too fast"
I was slightly apprehensive to all of you, but only gonzaw bit back :p
Again..I thought sloosh was scum, but I didn't really plan on making a joint win with him or anything (again, I thought he would surely stab me in the back or something), and I tried to plan for a 2-1-1 scenario to win. My best bet would have been to buddy up to MZ (again), and I think I could have done it.
I could accuse sloosh of anything (Yokoya or Harimoto), but I needed to accuse YOU of something. Since I couldn't accuse you of Yokoya I just started accusing you of Harimoto and came up with those reasons I PMed you about and shit.
You were just the townie to misslynch at that point for me dude
Also....you suddenly thought I was scum, so I tried to gain some initiative and FoS you more "thoroughly" sort of speak, to gain an upper hand or something.
For instance, I would PM MZ about all the reasons I thought you were scum, before you could make a case against me or something, that way I could have gain MZ's trust first before you had done that or something.
If you hadn't FoSed me, I could have played the "Wow, I don't know who of ET/MZ is scum" card a little longer I think >_>
I already said I had a brain fart and I shouldn't have PMed you that last PM I sent you (the one I put in my scum QT) though, but well
EDIT: Well, by "FoS" I meant that "Are you scum?" PM you sent me >_>
I also wanted to play the "I spent 10 hours rereading the thread to figure out the scum out of ET/MZ" card instead of trying to PM with you guys.
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Also, the only way I could have lived up to the Yokoya name was to make convoluted plans but end up losing
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Hrm, I see it. In that regard, I'm glad I attacked you, and PM'd MZ early to posture myself. To answer your earlier question, I had inklings that you could be scum as early as D4, but they were completely random musings ("if gonzaw was scum, this game is going to be tough as hell; he's been coming up with all the plans"). I actually examined you when you came up with that plan (trying to convince me sloosh = scum), and was convinced by the 2-1-1 stage.
I really need to read Liar Game manga sometime ><
Is Kavdragon no longer active around here? That TL steam thread isn't updated anymore 
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You know, the 2-1-1 part would have been really fun, you should have really just not shot :/
Like, imagine me and MZ working together against you and sloosh, where each group of ours thinks the other group is the group of scum working together?
That would have been SO HILARIOUS LOL!!
But now I missed it
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Hrm, but the most likely scenario would've been us both splitting votes, resulting in 2-2 until forever. which would mean 3 way draw. I didn't want town to have a draw, just as much as you said you didn't think harimoto deserved the win :p
I'll play the "I'm asleep" card and see what happens though.
LMAO
surely, the scum player's most powerful tool
I also find it funny how chaoser stuck around to chip in advice. Sandroba fulfilled a similar role for me, through skype <3
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ACtually, after 3 straight draws it would go to Night 9. If we didn't use our KP there, then it would be the same. After 1 draw in Round A of Day 10, EVERYBODY would be in the majority.
Then we would all give 5 votes to each other AND ALL DIE
Isn't that fun?
But now, I actually planned on buddying up with MZ, but counting on one of you/sloosh thinking the other one was scum (hopefully the townie out of you thinking the scum out of you was scum).
So, had sloosh thought ET was scum (and maybe me or MZ, didn't matter), then it would be something like this:
Majority: Me/MZ, ET, sloosh
Minority: Me/MZ
The one in the minority of us would give the one in the majority 5 votes. If one of ET/sloosh thought the other one was scum, he wouldn't give him votes, therefore he would die alone or along the other one of you two.
Hopefully, the townie out of you doesn't vote the scum out of you, meaning the scum out of you dies. It will be 2-1 at night with my KP in hand, so a win.
Yeah, that was my plan. I really wanted to see if it would have worked though >_>
Hey.. it's 6am in the morning.
Fucking game always keeping me awake >_>
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The roles/actions doc is on private, could you make it public please? It would make clear to everyone else which family shot who.
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I found this game very entertaining to play.
I'm not sure how well I like the voting mechanics because they're inherently time-based. We couldn't save me that night because I was simply sound asleep.
What syllogism said was right. I did not do very much to push the bugs/syllo/prplhz group in any particular direction. I started bussing sandroba immediately hard on day 1, and besides that I was quite content this group was off chasing chaoser, sheth, cephiro, BC and MZ. It was a good group of people to attack.
What did not work out in my gameplay was, as has been mentioned a few times, that I failed to keep the farce going for too long. this is because I never in a million years expected to flip before sandroba. That was my safety net, I was going to push very hard the idea that I had been attacking sandroba since day 1, and given how influential I was on the BC and chaoser lynches, I could make a case for it not being possible for me to be either mafia family.
If you carefully read my posts, I had been setting MZ up for getting blamed for soft-pushing sandroba while hard-pushing prplhz.
Everything of course blew in my face when prplhz and I got double lynched and sandroba lived, however, I had left almost no tracks to EchelonTee, who handily managed to win the game. Easily the MVP of this game.
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EPT
